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Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

Conference Paper↗

Recreational impacts to wildlife: Managing visitors and resources to protect wildlife

Publication Abstract: Visitor use management is essential for maximizing benefits for visitors while achieving and maintaining desired resource conditions and visitor experiences on federally managed lands and waters. Visitor capacity, a component of visitor use management, is defined as the maximum amounts and types of visitor use that an area can accommodate while achieving and maintaining the desired resource conditions and visitor experiences that are consistent with the purposes for which the area was established. This visitor capacity guidebook, in combination with the “Visitor Use Management Framework” (the framework), provides managers with processes to collaboratively develop long-term strategies to manage the amounts and types of visitor use to protect resources, improve access, connect visitors to key experiences, and achieve desired conditions. The purpose of this guidebook is to provide cohesive guidance on identifying and implementing visitor capacity on federally managed lands and waters. Similar to the framework, the sliding scale of analysis is discussed throughout this guidebook to ensure the investment of time, money, and other resources for a project is commensurate with the complexity of the project and the consequences of the decision. Overall, this guidebook is meant to expand on the framework and guide a professional and consistent approach to identifying and implementing visitor capacity. Paper Abstract: Most protected natural areas, including parks, forests, and wildlife refuges, are managed under a dual mandate to preserve predominantly natural settings and processes while also accommodating recreational visitation. Visitor activities can have deleterious impacts to protected area vegetation, soil, water, wildlife, and cultural resources. The term impact denotes undesirable visitor-related effects to natural resources and/or wildlife. This paper reviews the management of recreation impacts to wildlife, including discussions of influential factors, impact indicators, and the range of management responses. This information is provided to assist recreation and land managers in avoiding or minimizing visitor impact to wildlife, particularly related to decision-making within the new Visitor Use Management (VUM) framework. Such decision-making requires a thorough understanding of the different types of wildlife impact and the use-related, environmental, and managerial factors that influence them.

Report↗

Identifying key stressors driving biological impairment in freshwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

Biological communities in freshwater streams are often impaired by multiple stressors (e.g., flow or water quality) originating from anthropogenic activities such as urbanization, agriculture, or energy extraction. Restoration efforts in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA seek to improve biological conditions in 10% of freshwater tributaries and to protect the biological integrity of existing healthy watersheds. To achieve these goals, resource managers need to better understand which stressors are most likely driving biological impairment. Our study addressed this knowledge gap through two approaches: 1) reviewing and synthesizing published multi-stressor studies, and 2) examining 303(d) listed impairments linked to biological impairment as identified by jurisdiction regulatory agencies (the states within the watershed and the District of Columbia). Results identified geomorphology (i.e., physical habitat), salinity, and toxic contaminants as important for explaining variability in benthic community metrics in the literature review. Geomorphology (i.e., physical habitat and sediment), salinity, and nutrients were the most reported stressors in the jurisdictional impairment analysis. Salinity is likely a major stressor in urban and mining settings, whereas geomorphology was commonly reported in agricultural settings. Toxic contaminants, such as pesticides, were rarely measured; more research is needed to quantify the extent of their effects in the region. Flow alteration was also highlighted as an important urban stressor in the literature review but was rarely measured in the literature or reported by jurisdictions as a cause of impairment. These results can be used to prioritize stressor monitoring by managers, and to improve stressor identification methods for identifying causes of biological impairment.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗

Best practice guidelines for targeted environmental DNA-based proficiency testing in non-regulatory contexts

The effective use of environmental DNA (eDNA) tools is contingent on strict adherence to established and validated methods. Differences in eDNA methods and quality assurance protocols may contribute to variability in results. However, quality assurance measures such as proficiency testing can provide independent evaluation of laboratory performance against pre-established test criteria. With this commentary, we discuss how broad implementation of recurring proficiency testing in eDNA laboratories can build decision-maker confidence in eDNA results. It can also create a culture of continuous evaluation and improvement that minimizes error and meets performance requirements to inform the sustainable use or monitoring of natural resources. We provide an overview of proficiency testing across molecular disciplines, review the state of proficiency testing in eDNA applications, and draft a roadmap for the expanded application of proficiency testing informed by best practices for targeted eDNA detection. We suggest that best practice proficiency testing can be conducted by an independent, third-party sample provider. By demonstrating that laboratories are competent and capable of producing reliable results, implementation of proficiency testing best practices should foster confidence in eDNA measurements and its use in decision-making processes. Increased confidence in eDNA methods and a clear expectation of what is considered satisfactory performance are also likely to create more favorable conditions for investments in eDNA-based monitoring.

Environmental DNA↗

Geomorphology of mesophotic coral ecosystems: Current perspectives on morphology, distribution, and mapping strategies

This paper presents a general review of the distribution of mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) in relationship to geomorphology in US waters. It was specifically concerned with the depth range of 30–100 m, where more than 186,000 km2 of potential seafloor area was identified within the US Gulf of Mexico/Florida, Caribbean, and main Hawaiian Islands. The geomorphology of MCEs was largely inherited from a variety of pre-existing structures of highly diverse origins, which, in combination with environmental stress and physical controls, restrict the distribution of MCEs. Sea-level history, along with depositional and erosional processes, played an integral role in formation of MCE settings. However, mapping the distribution of both potential MCE topography/substrate and existing MCE habitat is only beginning. Mapping techniques pertinent to understanding morphology and MCE distributions are discussed throughout this paper. Future investigations need to consider more cost-effective and remote methods (such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and acoustics) in order to assess the distribution and extent of MCE habitat. Some understanding of the history of known MCEs through coring studies would help understand their initiation and response to environmental change over time, essential for assessing how they may be impacted by future environmental change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Mis↗

Reproductive failure in the Eastern Migratory Population: The interaction of research and management

The reintroduction of the Eastern Migratory Population of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) has shown the most promise of any effort to date toward the establishment of a self-sustaining population. However, reproduction – including both nest success and chick survival – has been a major challenge. Here, we review the research and management efforts deployed to identify and address this challenge. While there is evidence that a proximal cause of nest failure is harassment by blood-feeding black flies ( Simulium spp. ), this is not likely to be the only contributing factor, and we present alternative hypotheses. There is less understanding of the causes of poor chick survival, and we present hypotheses for factors that may be contributing to chick mortality, including environmental, genetic, and behavioral factors. For both nest success and chick survival, we carried out a value of information analysis, using expert judgment, which allowed us to prioritize the alternative hypotheses for evaluation based on the expected management benefit of addressing each hypothesis. On the horizon are multiple opportunities to explore hypotheses about environmental factors as well as genetic and behavioral characteristics of the birds themselves that may contribute to poor reproduction. If bird-specific characteristics, such as genetics or rearing methods, are hindering reproduction, this has important implications for all efforts to restore Whooping Crane populations.

Book chapter↗

Environmental effects of off-highway vehicles on Bureau of Land Management lands: A literature synthesis, annotated bibliographies, extensive bibliographies, and internet resources

This report and its associated appendixes compile and synthesize the results of a comprehensive literature and Internet search conducted in May 2006. The literature search was undertaken to uncover information regarding the effects of off-highway vehicle (OHV) use on land health, or “natural resource attributes,” and included databases archiving information from before OHVs came into existence to May 2006. Information pertaining to socioeconomic implications of OHV activities is included as well. The literature and Internet searches yielded approximately 700 peer-reviewed papers, magazine articles, agency and non-governmental reports, and internet websites regarding effects of OHV use as they relate to the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) standards of land health. Discussions regarding OHV effects are followed by brief syntheses of potential indicators of OHV effects, as well as OHV-effects mitigation, site-restoration techniques, and research needs.

Open-File Report↗

Kings of the North: Bridging disciplines to understand the effects of changing climate on Chinook salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Region

Understanding how species are responding to environmental change is a central challenge for stewards and managers of fish and wildlife who seek to maintain harvest opportunities for communities and Indigenous peoples. This is a particularly daunting but increasingly important task in remote, high-latitude regions where environmental conditions are changing rapidly and data collection is logistically difficult. The Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region encompasses the northern extent of the Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha range where populations are experiencing rapid rates of environmental change across both freshwater and marine habitats due to global climate change. Climate–salmon interactions in the AYK region are a particularly pressing issue as many local communities have a deep reliance on a subsistence way of life. Here, we synthesize perspectives shared at a recent workshop on Chinook Salmon declines in the AYK region. The objectives were to discuss current understandings of climate-Chinook Salmon interactions, develop a set of outstanding questions, review available data and its limitations in addressing these questions, and describe the perspectives expressed by participants in this workshop from diverse backgrounds. We conclude by suggesting pathways forward to integrate different types of information and build relationships among communities, academic partners, and fishery management agencies.

Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon↗

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee ( Fig. 1 ) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present. Donders (2014) also proposed that this climatic trend extended across South Florida despite contrary paleo-records from the Everglades. In particular he singled out the Northeast Shark River Slough (NESRS) record of Glaser et al. (2013) as an atypical local signal of paleo-environmental change that was biased by a misinterpretation of the ecology of pine and Amaranthaceae (Amaranth family). In response to this direct critique of our paleo-environmental interpretation, we wish to point out that: Our interpretation of the NESRS sedimentary sequence (site 4, Fig. 1 A) was based on multiple lines of evidence that all indicate a shift from wetter to drier (i.e. less wet) conditions that occurred after 2800 cal BP. A similar climatic shift from wetter to less wet conditions was reported for this time interval from other sites in the Everglades ( Willard et al., 2006 and Willard and Bernhardt, 2011 ) and also from the Caribbean region to the east ( Hodell et al., 1991 , Hodell et al., 1995 and Higuera-Gundy et al., 1999 ). The NESRS site is located in an area where runoff collected from a 10,000 km 2 wetland prior to 1900 AD when most of the drainage from the Everglades was channeled to the sea through the narrow Shark River Slough. The sedimentary sequence at the NESRS site should therefore contain an integrated record of hydrological change across the pre-historical Everglades ( Glaser et al., 2012 ). In addition this essentially non-forested wetland is well suited to accumulate a representative sample of the regional pollen rain in its sediments (e.g. Jaccobson and Bradshaw, 1981 and Prentice, 1985 ).

Florida↗

Landsat continuity: Issues and opportunities for land cover monitoring

Initiated in 1972, the Landsat program has provided a continuous record of earth observation for 35 years. The assemblage of Landsat spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, over a reasonably sized image extent, results in imagery that can be processed to represent land cover over large areas with an amount of spatial detail that is absolutely unique and indispensable for monitoring, management, and scientific activities. Recent technical problems with the two existing Landsat satellites, and delays in the development and launch of a successor, increase the likelihood that a gap in Landsat continuity may occur. In this communication, we identify the key features of the Landsat program that have resulted in the extensive use of Landsat data for large area land cover mapping and monitoring. We then augment this list of key features by examining the data needs of existing large area land cover monitoring programs. Subsequently, we use this list as a basis for reviewing the current constellation of earth observation satellites to identify potential alternative data sources for large area land cover applications. Notions of a virtual constellation of satellites to meet large area land cover mapping and monitoring needs are also presented. Finally, research priorities that would facilitate the integration of these alternative data sources into existing large area land cover monitoring programs are identified. Continuity of the Landsat program and the measurements provided are critical for scientific, environmental, economic, and social purposes. It is difficult to overstate the importance of Landsat; there are no other systems in orbit, or planned for launch in the short-term, that can duplicate or approach replication, of the measurements and information conferred by Landsat. While technical and political options are being pursued, there is no satellite image data stream poised to enter the National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive should system failures occur to Landsat-5 and -7.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

An examination of environmental factors associated with Myxobolus cerebralis infection of wild trout in Pennsylvania

Salmonid whirling disease, caused by the myxosporean parasite Myxobolus cerebralis , was first observed in the United States in 1956 in central Pennsylvania. The parasite was subsequently discovered at several culture facilities throughout the state, and widespread distribution of this parasite via the stocking of subclinically infected brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis , rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss , and brown trout Salmo trutta has been assumed. Although no monitoring of wild populations occurred until the late 1970s, it is a common belief that epizootics of whirling disease, now realized in the Intermountain West, are unlikely to have occurred in Pennsylvania. We conducted a review of historical information and a synoptic survey aimed at identifying factors that may prevent whirling disease outbreak in this region, reasoning that such information might be useful in identifying management strategies for populations affected by this parasite. Here we present data on parasite prevalence, fish populations, stream attributes, and the genetics of Tubifex tubifex (the obligate oligochaete host for the parasite) to evaluate various hypotheses proposed for low whirling disease impact in the region. We did not find clear associations between factors such as stream gradient, the genetics of T. tubifex populations, or the composition of resident trout populations and the pattern of M. cerebralis occurrence in Pennsylvania. We suggest that this pattern may be best explained by the association between T. tubifex host populations and point sources of organic enrichment. The potential restriction of T. tubifex populations to locations near sources of organic enrichment may be a factor in explaining why whirling disease has not been observed to cause population declines among wild trout in this region and should be further investigated.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗

The added value of time-variable microgravimetry to the understanding of how volcanoes work

During the past few decades, time-variable volcano gravimetry has shown great potential for imaging subsurface processes at active volcanoes (including some processes that might otherwise remain “hidden”), especially when combined with other methods (e.g., ground deformation, seismicity, and gas emissions). By supplying information on changes in the distribution of bulk mass over time, gravimetry can provide information regarding processes such as magma accumulation in void space, gas segregation at shallow depths, and mechanisms driving volcanic uplift and subsidence. Despite its potential, time-variable volcano gravimetry is an underexploited method, not widely adopted by volcano researchers or observatories. The cost of instrumentation and the difficulty in using it under harsh environmental conditions is a significant impediment to the exploitation of gravimetry at many volcanoes. In addition, retrieving useful information from gravity changes in noisy volcanic environments is a major challenge. While these difficulties are not trivial, neither are they insurmountable; indeed, creative efforts in a variety of volcanic settings highlight the value of time-variable gravimetry for understanding hazards as well as revealing fundamental insights into how volcanoes work. Building on previous work, we provide a comprehensive review of time-variable volcano gravimetry, including discussions of instrumentation, modeling and analysis techniques, and case studies that emphasize what can be learned from campaign, continuous, and hybrid gravity observations. We are hopeful that this exploration of time-variable volcano gravimetry will excite more scientists about the potential of the method, spurring further application, development, and innovation.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Mercury exposure in mammalian mesopredators inhabiting a brackish marsh

Bioaccumulation of environmental contaminants in mammalian predators can serve as an indicator of ecosystem health. We examined mercury concentrations of raccoons ( Procyon lotor; n = 37 individuals) and striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ; n = 87 individuals) in Suisun Marsh, California, a large brackish marsh that is characterized by contiguous tracts of tidal marsh and seasonally impounded wetlands. Mean (standard error; range) total mercury concentrations in adult hair grown from 2015 to 2018 were 28.50 μg/g dw (3.05 μg/g dw; range: 4.46 – 81.01 μg/g dw) in raccoons and 4.85 μg/g dw (0.54 μg/g dw; range: 1.52 – 27.02 μg/g dw) in striped skunks. We reviewed mammalian hair mercury concentrations in the literature and raccoon mercury concentrations in Suisun Marsh were among the highest observed for wild mammals. Although striped skunk hair mercury concentrations were 83% lower than raccoons, they were higher than proposed background levels for mercury in mesopredator hair (1 – 5 μg/g). Hair mercury concentrations in skunks and raccoons were not related to animal size, but mercury concentrations were higher in skunks in poorer body condition. Large inter-annual differences in hair mercury concentrations suggest that methylmercury exposure to mammalian predators varied among years. Mercury concentrations of raccoon hair grown in 2017 were 2.7 times greater than hair grown in 2015, 1.7 times greater than hair grown in 2016, and 1.6 times greater than hair grown in 2018. Annual mean raccoon and skunk hair mercury concentrations increased with wetland habitat area. Furthermore, during 2017, raccoon hair mercury concentrations increased with the proportion of raccoon home ranges that was wetted habitat, as quantified using global positioning system (GPS) collars. The elevated mercury concentrations we observed in raccoons and skunks suggest that other wildlife at similar or higher trophic positions may also be exposed to elevated methylmercury bioaccumulation in brackish marshes.

California↗

Missing data in ecology: Syntheses, clarifications, and considerations

In ecology and related sciences, missing data are common and occur in a variety of different contexts. When missing data are not handled properly, subsequent statistical estimates tend to be biased, inefficient, and lack proper confidence interval coverage. Missing data are often grouped into three categories: missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). We review each category and compare their benefits and drawbacks. We review several approaches to handling missing data including complete case analysis, imputation, inverse probability weighting, and data augmentation. We clarify what types of variables should accompany imputation methods and how those variables are influenced by the analysis methods. Additionally, we discuss missing data that lack a formal basis for measurement and hence are fundamentally different from MCAR, MAR, and MNAR missing data. Throughout, we introduce concepts and numeric examples using both simulated data and data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 2016 National Wetland Condition Assessment. We conclude by providing five considerations for ecologists and other scientists handling missing data.

Ecological Monographs↗

Next-generation lampricides: A three-stage process to develop improved control tools for invasive sea lamprey

Successful integrated management of the invasive predatory sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America is owed largely to the long history of beneficial use of two lampricides: 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) and 2′,5-dichloro-4′-nitrosalicylanilide (niclosamide). Ensuring continued successful sea lamprey control necessitates consideration of possible next-generation lampricides to supplement or replace current lampricides. This review identifies fifteen hallmarks of success for current lampricides to be used as design criteria in a search for next-generation lampricides. A three-stage research approach is outlined. Targeted research using omics, computer modelling, and high-throughput technology to define molecular mechanisms and high probability molecular targets for sea lamprey selective toxic action is crucial to prioritizing chemical candidates. Targeted delivery or identifying synergists to existing or new lampricides can provide increased efficiency and reduced environmental impact. Ultimate development of next-generation lampricides will rely on traditional toxicity testing methodologies to ensure safety and regulatory compliance.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

The conservation and population status of the world's waders at the turn of the millennium

Using information from many sources, but especially data collated for the third edition of Wetlands International’s Waterbird Population Estimates, we review the status of the world’s waders in the late 1990s. There are widespread declines in most regions and biotopes caused principally by loss and degradation of wetland (and other) habitats. On different flyways, between 33%and 68% of populations are in decline, compared with only 0% to 29% increasing. Non-migratory, island species have especially poor status, with about half of all island waders being globally threatened with extinction. Of particular conservation concern is the declining environmental status of several key staging areas,which provide energetic ‘spring-boards’ for long-distance migrants. The degradation of these areas compromises the status of many migrant waders. The rapid collapse of populations, forced below threshold levels, has been predicted theoretically, and now appears to be occurring in a number of rapidly declining populations. Conservation responses must urgently address causes of wetland loss and degradation, as well as enhancing monitoring and research so as better to inform appropriate conservation policies. National and international strategies and conservation instruments have scope to help, but need to be much more strategic in their implementation so as to address root causes.

Conference Paper↗

Frameworks for amending reservoir water management

Managing water storage and withdrawals in many reservoirs requires establishing seasonal targets for water levels (i.e., rule curves) that are influenced by regional precipitation and diverse water demands. Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated and mostly unfamiliar to non-US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) natural resource managers and to the public. To inform natural resource managers and the public we describe the policies and process involved in amending rule curves in USACE reservoirs, including 3 frameworks: a general investigation, a continuing authority program, and the water control plan. Our review suggests that water management in reservoirs can be amended, but generally a multitude of constraints and competing demands must be addressed before such a change can be realized.

Lake and Reservoir Management↗