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. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Mathematical modeling relevant to closed artificial ecosystems

The mathematical modeling of ecosystems has contributed much to the understanding of the dynamics of such systems. Ecosystems can include not only the natural variety, but also artificial systems designed and controlled by humans. These can range from agricultural systems and activated sludge plants, down to mesocosms, microcosms, and aquaria, which may have practical or research applications. Some purposes may require the design of systems that are completely closed, as far as material cycling is concerned. In all cases, mathematical modeling can help not only to understand the dynamics of the system, but also to design methods of control to keep the system operating in desired ranges. This paper reviews mathematical modeling relevant to the simulation and control of closed or semi-closed artificial ecosystems designed for biological production and recycling in applications in space. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Advances in Space Research↗

Surrogate rearing a keystone species to enhance population and ecosystem restoration

Translocation and rehabilitation programs are critical tools for wildlife conservation. These methods achieve greater impact when integrated in a combined strategy for enhancing population or ecosystem restoration. From 2002-2016, we reared 37 orphaned southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) pups, using captive sea otters as surrogate mothers, then released them into a degraded coastal estuary. As a keystone species, observed increases in the local sea otter population unsurprisingly brought many ecosystem benefits. The role that surrogate-reared otters played in this success story, however, remained uncertain. To resolve this question, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of the local population using surveyed individual fates (survival and reproduction) of surrogate-reared and wild-captured otters, and modeled estimates of immigration. Estimates derived from a decade of population monitoring indicated that surrogate-reared and wild sea otters experienced similar reproductive and survival rates. This was true for males and females, across all ages (1-13 years) and locations evaluated. The IBM simulations indicated that reconstructed counts of the wild population are best explained by surrogate-reared otters combined with low levels of unassisted immigration. In addition, the model shows that 55% of observed population growth over this period is attributable to surrogate-reared otters and their wild progeny. Together, our results indicate that the integration of surrogacy methods and reintroduction of juvenile sea otters helped establish a biologically successful population and restore a once-impaired ecosystem.

California↗

Reactivity and mobility of new and old mercury deposition in a boreal forest ecosystem during the first year of the METAALICUS study

The METAALICUS (Mercury Experiment To Assess Atmospheric Loading In Canada and the US) project is a whole ecosystem experiment designed to study the activity, mobility, and availability of atmospherically deposited mercury. To investigate the dynamics of mercury newly deposited onto a terrestrial ecosystem, an enriched stable isotope of mercury ( 202 Hg) was sprayed onto a Boreal forest subcatchment in an experiment that allowed us, for the first time, to monitor the fate of “new” mercury in deposition and to distinguish it from native mercury historically stored in the ecosystem. Newly deposited mercury was more reactive than the native mercury with respect to volatilization and methylation pathways. Mobility through runoff was very low and strongly decreased with time because of a rapid equilibration with the large native pool of “bound” mercury. Over one season, only ∼8% of the added 202 Hg volatilized to the atmosphere and less than 1% appeared in runoff. Within a few months, approximately 66% of the applied 202 Hg remained associated with above ground vegetation, with the rest being incorporated into soils. The fraction of 202 Hg bound to vegetation was much higher than seen for native Hg (<5% vegetation), suggesting that atmospherically derived mercury enters the soil pool with a time delay, after plants senesce and decompose. The initial mobility of mercury received through small rain events or dry deposition decreased markedly in a relatively short time period, suggesting that mercury levels in terrestrial runoff may respond slowly to changes in mercury deposition rates.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Analysis of ecosystem controls on soil carbon source-sink relationships in the northwest Great Plains

Our ability to forecast the role of ecosystem processes in mitigating global greenhouse effects relies on understanding the driving forces on terrestrial C dynamics. This study evaluated the controls on soil organic C (SOC) changes from 1973 to 2000 in the northwest Great Plains. SOC source-sink relationships were quantified using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) based on 40 randomly located 10 × 10 km 2 sample blocks. These sample blocks were aggregated into cropland, grassland, and forestland groups based on land cover composition within each sample block. Canonical correlation analysis indicated that SOC source-sink relationship from 1973 to 2000 was significantly related to the land cover type while the change rates mainly depended on the baseline SOC level and annual precipitation. Of all selected driving factors, the baseline SOC and nitrogen levels controlled the SOC change rates for the forestland and cropland groups, while annual precipitation determined the C source-sink relationship for the grassland group in which noticeable SOC sink strength was attributed to the conversion from cropped area to grass cover. Canonical correlation analysis also showed that grassland ecosystems are more complicated than others in the ecoregion, which may be difficult to identify on a field scale. Current model simulations need further adjustments to the model input variables for the grass cover-dominated ecosystems in the ecoregion.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance

Soil temperature and moisture are important factors that control many ecosystem processes. However, interactions between soil thermal and hydrological processes are not adequately understood in cold regions, where the frozen soil, fire disturbance, and soil drainage play important roles in controlling interactions among these processes. These interactions were investigated with a new ecosystem model framework, the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, that incorporates an efficient and stable numerical scheme for simulating soil thermal and hydrological dynamics within soil profiles that contain a live moss horizon, fibrous and amorphous organic horizons, and mineral soil horizons. The performance of the model was evaluated for a tundra burn site that had both preburn and postburn measurements, two black spruce fire chronosequences (representing space-for-time substitutions in well and intermediately drained conditions), and a poorly drained black spruce site. Although space-for-time substitutions present challenges in model-data comparison, the model demonstrates substantial ability in simulating the dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil temperature, active layer depth, soil moisture, and water table depth in response to both climate variability and fire disturbance. Several differences between model simulations and field measurements identified key challenges for evaluating/improving model performance that include (1) proper representation of discrepancies between air temperature and ground surface temperature; (2) minimization of precipitation biases in the driving data sets; (3) improvement of the measurement accuracy of soil moisture in surface organic horizons; and (4) proper specification of organic horizon depth/properties, and soil thermal conductivity.

Alaska↗

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site‐level synthesis

[1] Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the identification of the dominant time scales contributing to model performance in the frequency domain. In this study we used wavelet analyses to synthesize the performance of 21 ecosystem models at 9 eddy covariance towers as part of the North American Carbon Program's site‐level intercomparison. This study expands upon previous single‐site and single‐model analyses to determine what patterns of model error are consistent across a diverse range of models and sites. To assess the significance of model error at different time scales, a novel Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error. Failing to account for observation error leads to a misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. These analyses show that model error (1) is largest at the annual and 20–120 day scales, (2) has a clear peak at the diurnal scale, and (3) shows large variability among models in the 2–20 day scales. Errors at the annual scale were consistent across time, diurnal errors were predominantly during the growing season, and intermediate‐scale errors were largely event driven. Breaking spectra into discrete temporal bands revealed a significant model‐by‐band effect but also a nonsignificant model‐by‐site effect, which together suggest that individual models show consistency in their error patterns. Differences among models were related to model time step, soil hydrology, and the representation of photosynthesis and phenology but not the soil carbon or nitrogen cycles. These factors had the greatest impact on diurnal errors, were less important at annual scales, and had the least impact at intermediate time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Simulated global coastal ecosystem responses to a half-century increase in river nitrogen loads

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia projected to intensify through the combined effects of eutrophication and warming. As a major terrestrial nitrogen (N) source to the ocean, rivers play a critical role in shaping both coastal and global biogeochemical cycling. Combining an enhanced-resolution (1/4°), global ocean physical-biogeochemical model with dynamic river inputs, we estimate that elevated river nitrogen loads alone resulted in an increase of 16.6 Tg (+5.8%) in the global coastal nitrogen inventory (CNI) over the half century between 1961 and 2010. This change was accompanied by increases in coastal net primary productivity (NPP, +4.6%) and benthic detrital flux (BDF, +7.3%), the latter of which is indicative of an overall higher oxygen demand in coastal sediments. After normalization by area, the ecosystems most sensitive to added river nitrogen (g N m-2 yr-1) were those with long residence times and strong nitrogen limitation. While even enhanced-resolution global models remain limited in their capacity to resolve near-shore responses, these basic sensitivity factors provide two relevant axes for frameworks assessing the comparative susceptibility of globally distributed coastal ecosystems to enhanced nitrogen loading, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Alpine glacier reveals ecosystem impacts of Europe's prosperity and peril over the last millennium

Information about past ecosystem dynamics and human activities is stored in the ice of Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Swiss Alps. Adverse climatic intervals incurred crop failures and famines and triggered reestablishment of forest vegetation but also societal resilience through innovation. Historical documents and lake sediments record these changes at local—regional scales but often struggle to comprehensively document continental-scale impacts on ecosystems. Here, we provide unique multiproxy evidence of broad-scale ecosystem, land use, and climate dynamics over the past millennium from a Colle Gnifetti microfossil and oxygen isotope record. Microfossil data indicate that before 1750 CE forests and fallow land rapidly replaced crop cultivation during historically documented societal crises caused by climate shifts and epidemics. Subsequently, with technology and the introduction of more resilient crops, European societies adapted to the Little Ice Age cold period, but resource overexploitation and industrialization led to new regional to global-scale environmental challenges.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Climatic controls on soil carbon accumulation and loss in a dryland ecosystems

Arid and semiarid ecosystems drive year-to-year variability in the strength of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink, yet there is uncertainty about how soil C gains and losses contribute to this variation. To address this knowledge gap, we embedded C-depleted soil mesocosms, containing litter or biocrust C inputs, within an in situ dryland ecosystem warming experiment. Over the course of one year, changes in microbial biomass and total soil organic C pools were monitored alongside hourly measurements of soil CO 2 flux. We also developed a biogeochemical model to explore the mechanisms that gave rise to observed soil C dynamics. Field data and model simulations demonstrated that water exerted much stronger control on soil biogeochemistry than temperature, with precipitation events triggering large CO 2 pulses and transport of litter- and biocrust-derived C into the soil profile. We expected leaching of organic matter would result in steady accumulation of C within the mineral soil over time. Instead, the size of the total organic C pool fluctuated throughout the year, largely in response to microbial growth: increases in the size of microbial biomass were negatively correlated with the quantity of C residing in the top 2 cm, where most biogeochemical changes were observed. Our data and models suggest that microbial responses to precipitation events trigger rapid metabolism of dissolved organic C inputs, which strongly limit accumulation of autotroph-derived C belowground. Accordingly, changes in the magnitude and/or frequency of precipitation events in this dryland ecosystem could have profound impacts on the strength of the soil C sink.

Utah↗

Freshwater biogeochemical hotspots: High primary production and ecosystem respiration in shallow waterbodies

Ponds, wetlands, and shallow lakes (collectively “shallow waterbodies”) are among the most biogeochemically active freshwater ecosystems. Measurements of gross primary production (GPP), respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) are rare in shallow waterbodies compared to larger and deeper lakes, which can bias our understanding of lentic ecosystem processes. In this study, we calculated GPP, R, and NEP in 26 small, shallow waterbodies across temperate North America and Europe. We observed high rates of GPP (mean 8.4 g O 2 m −3 d −1 ) and R (mean −9.1 g O 2 m −3 d −1 ), while NEP varied from net heterotrophic to autotrophic. Metabolism rates were affected by depth and aquatic vegetation cover, and the shallowest waterbodies had the highest GPP, R, and the most variable NEP. The shallow waterbodies from this study had considerably higher metabolism rates compared to deeper lakes, stressing the importance of these systems as highly productive biogeochemical hotspots.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is one of the fastest changing regions on the planet and an emerging resource frontier for fisheries. Here, we present the Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index created by merging ecosystem information across food web trophic levels, from phytoplankton to fish and penguins, to quantify the ecological value of marine areas around the Antarctic continent. We find that coastal polynyas - areas of reduced sea-ice - have Index values 31–72% higher than surrounding areas, suggesting that these areas are biologically valuable hot spots for a number of ice-dependent Antarctic Species. Using output from an Earth system model to generate future projections of the Index, we find that high-value locations, often within polynyas, are likely to continue to be valuable throughout the 21st century despite environmental changes. The Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index indicates that penguins lose importance as their habitat becomes increasingly unsuitable, so protecting high-value habitat areas may be critical for these species. This study also shows that while many high-value Index areas are within existing or proposed Marine Protected Areas, there are several opportunities for adopting additional protection, particularly in East Antarctica and the Amundsen Sea.

Nature Communications↗

A decade of insights into grassland ecosystem responses to global environmental change

Earth’s biodiversity and carbon uptake by plants, or primary productivity, are intricately interlinked, underlie many essential ecosystem processes, and depend on the interplay among environmental factors, many of which are being changed by human activities. While ecological theory generalizes across taxa and environments, most empirical tests of factors controlling diversity and productivity have been observational, single-site experiments, or meta-analyses, limiting our understanding of variation among site-level responses and tests of general mechanisms. A synthesis of results from ten years of a globally distributed, coordinated experiment, the Nutrient Network (NutNet), demonstrates that species diversity promotes ecosystem productivity and stability, and that nutrient supply and herbivory control diversity via changes in composition, including invasions of non-native species and extinction of native species. Distributed experimental networks are a powerful tool for tests and integration of multiple theories and for generating multivariate predictions about the effects of global changes on future ecosystems.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

Multiple elements of soil biodiversity drive ecosystem functions across biomes

The role of soil biodiversity in regulating multiple ecosystem functions is poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict how soil biodiversity loss might affect human wellbeing and ecosystem sustainability. Here, combining a global observational study with an experimental microcosm study, we provide evidence that soil biodiversity (bacteria, fungi, protists and invertebrates) is significantly and positively associated with multiple ecosystem functions. These functions include nutrient cycling, decomposition, plant production, and reduced potential for pathogenicity and belowground biological warfare. Our findings also reveal the context dependency of such relationships and the importance of the connectedness, biodiversity and nature of the globally distributed dominant phylotypes within the soil network in maintaining multiple functions. Moreover, our results suggest that the positive association between plant diversity and multifunctionality across biomes is indirectly driven by soil biodiversity. Together, our results provide insights into the importance of soil biodiversity for maintaining soil functionality locally and across biomes, as well as providing strong support for the inclusion of soil biodiversity in conservation and management programmes.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗

Top-predator recovery abates geomorphic decline of a coastal ecosystem

The recovery of top predators is thought to have cascading effects on vegetated ecosystems and their geomorphology 1,2 , but the evidence for this remains correlational and intensely debated 3,4 . Here we combine observational and experimental data to reveal that recolonization of sea otters in a US estuary generates a trophic cascade that facilitates coastal wetland plant biomass and suppresses the erosion of marsh edges—a process that otherwise leads to the severe loss of habitats and ecosystem services 5,6 . Monitoring of the Elkhorn Slough estuary over several decades suggested top-down control in the system, because the erosion of salt marsh edges has generally slowed with increasing sea otter abundance, despite the consistently increasing physical stress in the system (that is, nutrient loading, sea-level rise and tidal scour 7,8,9 ). Predator-exclusion experiments in five marsh creeks revealed that sea otters suppress the abundance of burrowing crabs, a top-down effect that cascades to both increase marsh edge strength and reduce marsh erosion. Multi-creek surveys comparing marsh creeks pre- and post-sea otter colonization confirmed the presence of an interaction between the keystone sea otter, burrowing crabs and marsh creeks, demonstrating the spatial generality of predator control of ecosystem edge processes: densities of burrowing crabs and edge erosion have declined markedly in creeks that have high levels of sea otter recolonization. These results show that trophic downgrading could be a strong but underappreciated contributor to the loss of coastal wetlands, and suggest that restoring top predators can help to re-establish geomorphic stability.

California↗

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world’s most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km 2 ) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km 2 ) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km 2 ) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km 2 ). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (− 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Scientific Reports↗

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗

Supplying ecosystem services on US rangelands

Rangelands comprise 40% of the conterminous United States and they supply essential ecosystem services to society. A scenario assessment was conducted to determine how accelerating biophysical and societal drivers may modify their future availability. Four scenarios emerged: two may maintain rural communities by sustaining the prevailing ecosystem service of beef cattle production, and two may transform rural communities through expansion of renewable energy technologies and infusion of external capital from amenity land sales. Collaborative organizations representing diverse societal sectors may most effectively identify and manage trade-offs among ecosystem service availability, and equitably prioritize food and energy security, environmental quality and cultural identity.

Nature Sustainability↗