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Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Conservation Biology↗

Alternate data sources for soil surveys on rangeland

Soil information is an essential theme in a digital information base for land management and resource monitoring, but public land management agencies seldom have detailed soil maps available for all of the area under their administration. Most of these agencies conduct soil surveys on a scheduled basis, but escalating costs and declining budgets are reducing the number of surveys that can be scheduled. Digital elevation and satellite spectral data are available or are obtainable for all areas in the continental United States and may be used as an aid to produce soils data. A study was conducted in the Grass Creek Resource Area in north-central Wyoming to assess the utility of incorporating digital elevation and Landsat data into an information base for soil survey and to evaluate the usefulness of these data as an input to an order-three soil survey. Slope-interval maps were produced from digital elevation data and topographic maps of three 7.5-minute quadrangle areas. These slope-interval maps were then overlaid on orthophotoquadrangles and used to produce photo-interpreted physiographic maps. These physiographic maps were digitized into a data base and used with Landsat multispectral scanner data to produce tabular summaries that describe each map polygon in terms of physiographic unit, slope, aspect, elevation, area, and spectral values. A good relationship was found between the physiographic units and soil mapping units defined during a conventional soil survey, and between the Landsat spectral categories and existing vegetation communities. Field evaluations confirmed the feasibility of using this approach for producing physiographic maps as an aid for mapping soils and range sites. The project is a cooperative investigation of the Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Soil Conservation Service, and the Bureau of Land Management.

Open-File Report↗

Drivers and consequences of alternative landscape futures on wildlife distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Navigating ecological transformation: Resist-accept-direct as a path to a new resource management paradigm

Natural resource managers worldwide face a growing challenge: Intensifying global change increasingly propels ecosystems toward irreversible ecological transformations. This nonstationarity challenges traditional conservation goals and human well-being. It also confounds a longstanding management paradigm that assumes a future that reflects the past. As once-familiar ecological conditions disappear, managers need a new approach to guide decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework, designed for and by managers, identifies the options managers have for responding and helps them make informed, purposeful, and strategic choices in this context. Moving beyond the diversity and complexity of myriad emerging frameworks, RAD is a simple, flexible, decision-making tool that encompasses the entire decision space for stewarding transforming ecosystems. Through shared application of a common approach, the RAD framework can help the wider natural resource management and research community build the robust, shared habits of mind necessary for a new, twenty-first-century natural resource management paradigm.

BioScience↗

Preface: Bridging the gap between theory and practice on the upper Mississippi River

In July 1994, the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) served as a nexus for coalescing scientific information and management issues related to worldwide floodplain river ecosystems. The objective of the conference ‘Sustaining the Ecological Integrity of Large Floodplain Rivers: Application of Ecological Knowledge to River Management’, was to provide presentations of current ideas from the scientific community. To translate the many lessons learned on other river systems to operational decisions on the UMR, a companion workshop for managers and the general public was held immediately after the conference. An immediate local need for such sharing has existed for several years, as the U.S. Corps of Engineers is currently planning commercial navigation activities that will influence the ecological integrity of the river over the next half century. Recently, other equally important management issues have surfaced, including managing the river as an element of the watershed, and assessing its ecological value as a system instead of a collection of parts (Upper Mississippi River Conservation Committee, 1993). Regional and state natural resource agencies are becoming more convinced that they need to address these issues within their own authorities, however spatially limited, rather than relying on the U.S. Corps of Engineers to manage the ecosystem as an adjunct to its purpose of navigation support.

Mississippi River↗

Principles of translational science education

In a recent special issue in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Enquist et al. (2017) present a welcome streamlining of modern applied ecology emphasizing a collaborative approach to applied ecological research involving resource-managers and scientists to produce actionable science: translational ecology (TE). The authors, including ecologists, social scientists, and conservation professionals, identified six principles defining the practice of translational ecology: collaboration, engagement, commitment, communication, process, and framing (Figure 1). In thinking about how science education can be enhanced by directly involving researchers in science education, we recognized remarkable overlap between the principles of translational ecology (Enquist et al. 2017) and a framework for developing mutually beneficial integrative partnerships between scientists and educators. Here, we describe scientist-educator analogies of the six principles of translational ecology: translational science education (TSE).

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Influence of fine-scale habitat characteristics on sage-grouse nest site selection and nest survival varies by mesic and xeric site conditions

Resource managers and scientists across western U.S. agencies seek methodologies for identifying environmental attributes important to both wildlife conservation and broad-scale land stewardship. The Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) exemplifies a species in need of this broad-scale approach given widespread population declines that have resulted from loss and degradation of habitat from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. These include agricultural land conversion, conifer expansion, energy development, and wildfire coupled with ecological conversion by invasive plants such as cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ). Development of habitat assessments and conservation actions for sage-grouse benefit from studies that link demographic responses to habitat selection patterns. To address this, we examined nest survival of sage-grouse in relation to fine-scale habitat patterns (i.e., field-based habitat measurements) that influenced nest site selection, using data from nests of telemetered females at 17 sites over 6 years in Nevada and northeastern California, USA. Importantly, sites spanned mesic and xeric average precipitation conditions that contributed substantially to vegetation community structure across cold desert ecosystems of the North American Great Basin. Vegetative cover immediately surrounding sage-grouse nests was important for both nest site selection and nest survival, but responses varied between mesic and xeric sites. For example, while taller perennial grasses were selected at xeric sites, we found no evidence of selection for perennial grass at mesic sites, indicating a functional response to availability of habitat features between hydrographic regions. Furthermore, perennial grass height and forb height both had positive effects on nest survival at xeric sites, but we found varying effects at mesic sites. We emphasize that precipitation conditions driving ecosystem productivity vary regionally among sagebrush communities, shaping vegetation structure and suitable habitat conditions for nesting sage-grouse.

Ornithological Applications↗

Biology and invasive species in the western U.S

The diversity of environments that characterizes the West is responsible for the region's rich biological heritage. This ecological diversity also means that opportunities for invasive species are many, varied, and complex. Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to invaders as demonstrated in Hawaii and West Coast offshore islands. Aquatic invaders impose high economic and environmental costs in systems as varied as San Francisco Bay and desert springs in the Great Basin. Although the West's arid and montane ecosystems may seem resistant to plant and animal invaders, we now know that ex-otic species have altered physical processes related to fire and hydrology in a manner favoring further expansion and persis-tence of invaders. Natural resource managers value analytical, mapping, and genetics tools developed by USGS scientists to monitor invasive species and help conserve biological systems. USGS biologists conduct research to assist land and water managers' efforts to control invasive species and restore natural systems. Throughout the West, the USGS carries out studies for early detection and rapid assessment of invaders. The following are some examples of how the USGS is making a difference in the western United States.

Fact Sheet↗

Airborne lidar accuracy analysis for dual photogrammetric and lidar sensor pilot project in Colorado, 2019

This report presents accuracy assessment results of the light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in Colorado during a pilot project in fall 2019. The purpose of the pilot project was to assess the accuracy of lidar and imagery data collected simultaneously for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Imagery Program and the U.S. Geological Survey National Geospatial Program 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). A multiagency group consisting of U.S. Department of the Interior agencies and USDA agencies participated in the effort. Department of the Interior agencies included Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and U.S. Geological Survey; USDA agencies included the Farm Services Agency, the Natural Resource Conservation Service, and U.S. Forest Service. This pilot project was designed to help determine if a lidar sensor system has the potential to meet future 3DEP topographic lidar collection requirements, ideally at the same altitudes and leaf-on times that National Agriculture Imagery Program is flown. The airborne sensor system from Leica Geosystems (part of Hexagon) (hereafter referred to as dual sensor system) was used in the pilot project and can collect imagery and three-dimensional point cloud data concurrently. This report examines the characteristics of lidar data from a geometric accuracy perspective. Field surveys were performed to evaluate the three-dimensional absolute and relative accuracy of the airborne lidar data and to determine if the data met 3DEP specifications.

Colorado↗

Interim program for land cover mapping in Alaska utilizing Landsat digital data

The enactment of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) in 1980 imposed mandates on all major land management agencies in Alaska to prepare comprehensive resource and management plans to assess wildlife habitat, oil and gas exploration and development, wild and scenic river, land disposals, timber production, and archaeological and cultural resources, To meet these objective, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) has embarked on a plan to classify land cover for the entire State of Alaska using Landsat digital data. the USGS, in cooperation with other agencies, has completely Landsat-derived land use and land cover classification of 115 million acres for the State of Alaska. With this work as a substantial foundation, the USGS has prepared a comprehensive plan for classifying the remaining areas of Alaska. The development of this program will lead to a complete interim land use and land cover classification system for Alaska and provide for the dissemination of map products, statistics, and acreage summaries for all areas of Alaska at 1:250,000 scale. It also allows for the dissemination of Landsat digital data for those areas.

Alaska↗

Towards sustainable management of Louisiana's coastal wetland forests: Problems, constraints, and a new beginning

Over 345,000 ha of forested swamps occur throughout the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. Natural and anthropogenic changes in hydrology and geomorphology at local and landscape levels have reduced the productivity in many of these coastal wetland forests areas and have caused the complete loss of forest cover in some places. A summary and interpretation of the available science, suggestions for policy change, and a multidisciplinary (multi-responsibility) approach were needed to address these issues [in the context of private land]. In response, the Louisiana Governor's office formed a Coastal Wetland Forest Conservation and Use Science Working Group (SWG) and an associated Advisory Panel to provide the Governor with information and suggestions of strategies for environmental and economic utilization, conservation, and protection of Louisiana's coastal wetland forest ecosystem in the long-term. The process of engaging scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders in this effort is described, and the recommendations of the SWG are presented relative to forestry practices and the potential for sustainable management of coastal wetland forests.

Louisiana↗

OpenET: Filling a critical data gap in water management for the western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

western United States↗

U.S. Geological Survey Information Sources

As the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every State by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the Nation's natural resources, and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy, and mineral resources

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey Information Sources

As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works in cooperation with more than 2000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial, scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the nation's natural resources, and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy and mineral resources.

Fact Sheet↗

Land use and water use in the Antelope Valley, California

Urban land use and water use in the Antelope Valley, California, have increased significantly since development of the valley began in the late 1800's.. Ground water has been a major source of water in this area because of limited local surface-water resources. Ground-water pumpage is reported to have increased from about 29,000 acre-feet in 1919 to about 400,000 acre-feet in the 1950's. Completion of the California Aqueduct to this area in the early 1970's conveyed water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, about 400 miles to the north. Declines in groundwater levels and increased costs of electrical power in the 1970's resulted in a reduction in the quantity of ground water that was pumped annually for irrigation uses. Total annual reported ground-water pumpage decreased to a low of about 53,200 acre-feet in 1983 and increased to about 91,700 acre-feet in 1991 as a result of rapid urban development and the 1987-92 drought. This increased urban development, in combination with several years of drought, renewed concern about a possible return to extensive depletion of ground-water storage and increased land subsidence. Increased water demands are expected to continue as a result of increased urban development. Water-demand forecasts in 1980 for the Antelope Valley indicated that total annual water demand by 2020 was expected to be about 250,000 acre-feet, with agricultural demand being about 65 percent of this total. In 1990, total water demand was projected to be about 175,000 acre-feet by 2010; however, agricultural water demand was expected to account for only 37 percent of the total demand. New and existing land- and water-use data were collected and compiled during 1992-93 to identify present and historical land and water uses. In 1993, preliminary forecasts for total water demand by 2010 ranged from about 127,500 to 329,000 acre-feet. These wide-ranging estimates indicate that forecasts can change with time as factors that affect water demand change and different forecasting methods are used. The forecasts using the MWD_MAIN (Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Municipal and Industrial Needs) water-demand forecasting system yielded the largest estimates of water demand. These forecasts were based on projections of population growth and other socioeconomic variables. Initial forecasts using the MWD_MAIN forecasting system commonly are considered "interim" or preliminary. Available historical and future socioeconomic data required for the forecasting system are limited for this area. Decisions on local water-resources demand management may be made by members of the Antelope Valley Water Group and other interested parties based on this report, other studies, their best judgement, and cumulative knowledge of local conditions. Potential water-resource management actions in the Antelope Valley include (1) increasing artificial ground-water recharge when excess local runoff (or imported water supplies) are available; (2) implementing water-conservation best-management practices; and (3) optimizing ground-water pumpage throughout the basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hazards affecting grizzly bear survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded its range. Early efforts to model grizzly bear mortality were principally focused within the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone, which currently represents only about 61% of known bear distribution in the GYE. A more recent analysis that explored one spatial covariate that encompassed the entire GYE suggested that grizzly bear survival was highest in Yellowstone National Park, followed by areas in the grizzly bear Recovery Zone outside the park, and lowest outside the Recovery Zone. Although management differences within these areas partially explained differences in grizzly bear survival, these simple spatial covariates did not capture site-specific reasons why bears die at higher rates outside the Recovery Zone. Here, we model annual survival of grizzly bears in the GYE to 1) identify landscape features (i.e., foods, land management policies, or human disturbances factors) that best describe spatial heterogeneity among bear mortalities, 2) spatially depict the differences in grizzly bear survival across the GYE, and 3) demonstrate how our spatially explicit model of survival can be linked with demographic parameters to identify source and sink habitats. We used recent data from radiomarked bears to estimate survival (1983–2003) using the known-fate data type in Program MARK. Our top models suggested that survival of independent (age ≥2 yr) grizzly bears was best explained by the level of human development of the landscape within the home ranges of bears. Survival improved as secure habitat and elevation increased but declined as road density, number of homes, and site developments increased. Bears living in areas open to fall ungulate hunting suffered higher rates of mortality than bears living in areas closed to hunting. Our top model strongly supported previous research that identified roads and developed sites as hazards to grizzly bear survival. We also demonstrated that rural homes and ungulate hunting negatively affected survival, both new findings. We illustrate how our survival model, when linked with estimates of reproduction and survival of dependent young, can be used to identify demographically the source and sink habitats in the GYE. Finally, we discuss how this demographic model constitutes one component of a habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation. Such a framework can spatially depict the areas of risk in otherwise good habitat, providing a focus for resource management in the GYE.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: strange bedfellows or essential partners?

There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the “best” management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components), vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity). It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimumallows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resiliencethinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more on process rather than pattern, on multiple scales of influence, and on phenomena that can create alternative stability regimes. Although we acknowledge the inherent difficulties in modeling ecological processes, we stress that formulation of useful models need not depend on a thorough mechanistic understanding or precise parameterization, assuming that uncertainty is acknowledged and treated in a systematic manner.

Ecology and Society↗

Adaptive problem maps (APM): Connecting data dots to build increasingly informed and defensible environmental conservation decisions

Connecting individual datasets from different projects to each other and to decisions can help manager-researcher-administrator teams build on what is known and adapt their environmental decision-making process as new information becomes available. Throughout their careers, environmental professionals often collect data on many individual projects that address similar sets of natural resource conservation problems. Consequently, the institutions, agencies, and organizations that employ these environmental professionals accumulate a large reservoir of project-specific information. However, bigger-picture opportunities to advance broader natural resource conservation goals are lost if individual projects and datasets are not integrated. Here we illustrate how our adaptive problem mapping (APM) process provides a framing and internal structure that charts relationships among pertinent information types, germane data sets, applicable concepts, and relevant decisions. In the APM process, appropriately defined problem statements and coordinated bridging questions connect data and concepts to build a network of increasingly informed and defensible decisions. Although our APM process can be applied to many environmental problems, here we focus on examples from aquatic systems in which fish are conservation priorities. Prioritizing an initial evaluation and regular modification of the relationships among datasets and decisions using the APM process helps manager-research-administrator teams envision, track, and update what is known, unknown, learned, and needed. The resulting broader point of view advances strategic planning, evaluations of progress, assessments of opportunity costs, identification of options, and justifications of decision-related actions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗