Geology ReportsSearch

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Coastal Futures”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

A comparison of photograph-interpreted and IfSAR-derived maps of polar bear denning habitat for the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in Alaska use the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for maternal denning. Pregnant bears den in snow banks for more than 3 months in winter during which they give birth to and nurture young. Denning is one of the most vulnerable times in polar bear life history as the family group cannot simply walk away from a disturbance without jeopardizing survival of newly born cubs. The ANWR includes the “1002 Area”, a region recently opened for oil and gas exploration by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). As a part of its mission, the DOI “… protects and manages the Nation's natural resources …” and is therefore responsible for conserving polar bears and encouraging development of energy potential. Because future industrial activities could overlap habitats used by denning polar bears, identifying these habitats can inform the decisions of resource managers tasked to develop resources and protect polar bears. To help inform these efforts, we qualitatively compared the distribution of denning habitat identified by two different methods: previously published habitat from manual interpretation of aerial photographs, and habitat derived by computer interrogation of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) digital terrain models (DTM). Because photograph-interpreted methods depicted denning habitat as a line and IfSAR-derived methods depicted habitat as a polygon, we assessed agreement between the two methods with distance measurements. We found that 77.5 percent of IfSAR-derived denning habitat (79.6 km2 ; 1.2 percent of the 6,837.0 km2 1002 Area) was within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat (3,026.9 km), including 53.9 percent within 200 m. This distribution differed from that of randomly distributed points, as only 49.4 percent of these occurred within 600 m of photograph-interpreted habitat, including 18.3 percent within 200 m. Both methods appear to identify the major physiographic features that polar bears might select for denning. IfSAR-derived methods identified habitat at greater frequency beyond major landscape features such as coastal bluffs, river banks and lakeshores, were more likely to identify isolated pockets of putative denning habitat, and were easier to implement than deriving habitat from photograph-interpretive efforts. However, previous research suggests that photograph-interpretation methods may identify denning habitat more correctly than computer interrogation of IfSAR DTMs. Future work should quantify the distribution of IfSAR-derived denning habitat relative to actual landscape features and polar bear maternal dens in the 1002 Area, and investigate the feasibility of habitat identification from finer grained DTMs.

Alaska

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

Scientific Reports

Potential effects of sea-level rise on plant productivity: Species-specific responses in northeast Pacific tidal marshes

Coastal wetland plants are adapted to varying degrees of inundation. However, functional relationships between inundation and productivity are poorly characterized for most species. Determining species-specific tolerances to inundation is necessary to evaluate sea-level rise (SLR) effects on future marsh plant community composition, quantify organic matter inputs to marsh accretion, and inform predictive modeling of tidal wetland persistence. In 2 macrotidal estuaries in the northeast Pacific we grew 5 common species in experimental mesocosms across a gradient of tidal elevations to assess effects on growth. We also tested whether species abundance distributions along elevation gradients in adjacent marshes matched productivity profiles in the mesocosms. We found parabolic relationships between inundation and total plant biomass and shoot counts in Spartina foliosa and Bolboschoenus maritimus in California, USA, and in Carex lyngbyei in Oregon, USA, with maximum total plant biomass occurring at 38, 28, and 15% time submerged, respectively. However, biomass of Salicornia pacifica and Juncus balticus declined monotonically with increasing inundation. Inundation effects on the ratio of belowground to aboveground biomass varied inconsistently among species. In comparisons of field distributions with mesocosm results, B. maritimus , C. lyngbyei and J. balticus were abundant in marshes at or above elevations corresponding with their maximum productivity; however, S. foliosa and S. pacifica were frequently abundant at lower elevations corresponding with sub-optimal productivity. Our findings show species-level differences in how marsh plant growth may respond to future SLR and highlight the sensitivity of high marsh species such as S. pacifica and J. balticus to increases in flooding.

California, Oregon

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

California, Oregon, Washington

A climate risk management screening and assessment review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy

Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. To support the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in the incorporation of Climate Risk Management into their Country Development Cooperation Strategy, we synthesized the best available information on current and future climate change impacts. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of these climatic changes on water resources, agriculture, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, fisheries, and human health. Through interviews with stakeholders in Madagascar, we also discerned ongoing and potential climate adaptation and mitigation activities and information gaps (production, access, exploitation, processing, dissemination of information). The information gathered can be used by USAID, NGOs, and other organizations on how to better incorporate climate risks into development strategies and projects in Madagascar.

Project Summary

Coastal eolian sand-ramp development related to paleo-sea-level changes during the Latest Pleistocene and Holocene (21–0 ka) in San Miguel Island, California, U.S.A.

Coastal eolian sand ramps (5–130 m elevation) on the northern slope (windward) side of the small San Miguel Island (13 km in W-E length) range in age from late Pleistocene to modern time, though a major hiatus in sand-ramp growth occurred during the early Holocene marine transgression (16–9 ka). The Holocene sand ramps (1–5 m measured thicknesses) currently lack large dune forms, thereby representing deflated erosional remnants, locally covering thicker late Pleistocene sand-ramp deposits. The ramp sand was initially supplied from the adjacent island-shelf platform, extending about 20 km north of the present coastline. The sand-ramp deposits and interbedded loess soils were 14 C dated using 112 samples from 32 archaeological sites and other geologic sections. Latest Pleistocene sand ramps (66–18 ka) were derived from across-shelf eolian sand transport during marine low stands. Shoreward wave transport supplied remobilized late Pleistocene sand from the inner shelf to Holocene beaches, where dominant NW winds supplied sand to the sand ramps. The onset dates of the sand-ramp deposition in San Miguel are 7.2 ± 1.5 ka (sample n = 14). The internal strata dates in the vertically accreting sand ramps are 3.4 ± 1.7 ka ( n = 34). The sand ramps in San Miguel show wide-scale termination of sand supply in the latest Holocene time. The sand-ramp top dates or burial dates are 1.7 ± 0.9 ka ( n = 28). The latest Holocene sand ramps are truncated along most of the island's northern coastline, indicating recent losses of nearshore sand reserves to onshore, alongshore, and, possibly, offshore sand sinks. The truncated sand ramps in San Miguel Island and in other sand-depleted marine coastlines provide warnings about future beach erosion and/or shoreline retreat from accelerated sea-level rise accompanying predicted global warming.

California

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

Managers of large river basins face conflicting needs for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting local economies for years. The Savannah River Basin’s coastal area contains municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent since the 1970s. There is a planned deepening of the harbor that includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity. The effectiveness of the flow-alteration features will only be known after they are constructed. One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to significantly reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated

South Carolina

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

Managers of large river basins face conflicting needs for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting local economies for years. The Savannah River Basin’s coastal area contains municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent since the 1970s. There is a planned deepening of the harbor that includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity. The effectiveness of the flow-alteration features will only be known after they are constructed. One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

Georgia, South Carolina

The past, present, and future of manatees in the southeastern United States: realities, misunderstandings and enigmas

A review of the historical and recent (1970s-1980s) literature on the distribution, abundance, and mortality of West Indian manatees ( Trichechus manatus ) in the southern United States is presented. Recent unpublished data on mortality, Florida boat registrations, size of certain manatee wintering populations, and records outside of Florida are also given. Manatees never regularly occurred outside of Florida, except during the summer in Georgia. Current distribution is also limited largely to Florida and coastal Georgia in summer, with extralimital records in other southeastern states. In winter the range contracts and is centered around warm water sources in Florida. The historical record on past abundance is inconclusive, but does not provide any compelling evidence to claim that manatees ever nearly became extinct. There are no satisfactory means to estimate manatee population size. However, within Florida, manatees have become more widespread and possibly more abundant during the past 30 years due to protection, greater availability of warm water in winter, and in some areas, increased exotic vegetation. Deliberate killing for food was long a historical pressure on manatee populations in Florida, but is not almost non-existent. Nevertheless, recent increasing trends in accidental mortality caused by boats, coupled with an understanding of manatee population dynamics, suggests that the future for manatees is not secure. Ample justification exists for continued manatee conservation efforts.

Book

Volcanic ash deposition, eelgrass beds, and inshore habitat loss from the 1920s to the 1990s at Chignik, Alaska

We quantified the shallowing of the seafloor in five of six bays examined in the Chignik region of the Alaska Peninsula, confirming National Ocean Service observations that 1990s hydrographic surveys were shallower than previous surveys from the 1920s. Castle Bay, Chignik Lagoon, Hook Bay, Kujulik Bay and Mud Bay lost volume as calculated from Mean Lower Low Water (Chart Datum) to the deepest depths and four of these sites lost volume from Mean High Water to the deepest depths. Calculations relative to each datum were made because tidal datum records exhibited an increase in tidal range in this region from the 1920s to the 1990s. Our analysis showed that Mud Bay is quickly disappearing while Chignik Lagoon is being reduced to narrow channels. Anchorage Bay was the only site that increased in depth over time, perhaps due to erosion. Volcanoes dominate the landscape of the Chignik area. They have blanketed the region in deep ash deposits before the time frame of this study, and some have had smaller ash-producing eruptions during the time frame of this study. Remobilization of land-deposited ash and redeposition in marine areas - in some locations facilitated by extensive eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) beds (covering 54% of Chignik Lagoon and 68% of Mud Bay in 2010) - is the most likely cause of shallowing in the marine environment. Loss of shallow water marine habitat may alter future abundance and distribution of several fish, invertebrate and avian species.

Alaska

Canals, backfilling and wetland loss in the Mississippi Delta

Canals and spoil banks have contributed significantly to high rates of wetland loss in the Mississippi delta. There has been relatively little research on management of canals and spoil banks and this needs to be a significant component of restoration of the delta. We analyze research on the role of backfilling canals in the context of delta restoration with special reference to Turner and McClenachan (2018) who state that if all canals were backfilled, it could significantly reduce or even reverse wetland loss and that most wetland loss is caused by canals. We agree with T&M that canals have been a significant cause of wetland loss in the Mississippi Delta and that removing spoil banks and backfilling canals should be an integral part of delta restoration. However, a number of factors need to be considered when choosing which canals to backfill including possible enhanced erosion due to exposure to wave action for newly created and remnant marsh, the current and future production history of oil and natural gas from canals, and other restoration activities in oil and gas fields. Turner and McClenachan’s analysis using wetland loss patterns in 15-minute quadrangles suggesting that canal density can explain most wetland loss in coastal Louisiana is flawed because of scale problems and other impacts of oil and gas activity. These impacts include subsurface induced subsidence and the impact of produced water and toxins on wetlands that are largely unrelated to surface alteration due to canals and spoil banks.

Louisiana

Mangrove forests in a rapidly changing world: Global change impacts and conservation opportunities along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Archive of side scan sonar and swath bathymetry data collected during USGS cruise 10CCT01 offshore of Cat Island, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, March 2010

In March of 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted geophysical surveys east of Cat Island, Mississippi (fig. 1). The efforts were part of the USGS Gulf of Mexico Science Coordination partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to assist the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP) and the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazards Susceptibility Project by mapping the shallow geological stratigraphic framework of the Mississippi Barrier Island Complex. These geophysical surveys will provide the data necessary for scientists to define, interpret, and provide baseline bathymetry and seafloor habitat for this area and to aid scientists in predicting future geomorpholocial changes of the islands with respect to climate change, storm impact, and sea-level rise. Furthermore, these data will provide information for barrier island restoration, particularly in Camille Cut, and provide protection for the historical Fort Massachusetts. For more information refer to http://ngom.usgs.gov/gomsc/mscip/index.html. This report serves as an archive of the processed swath bathymetry and side scan sonar data (SSS). Data products herein include gridded and interpolated surfaces, surface images, and x,y,z data products for both swath bathymetry and side scan sonar imagery. Additional files include trackline maps, navigation files, GIS files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal FGDC metadata. Scanned images of the handwritten FACS logs and digital FACS logs are also provided as PDF files. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansion of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report or hold the cursor over an acronym for a pop-up explanation. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 10CCT01 tells us the data were collected in 2010 for the Coastal Change and Transport (CCT) study and the data were collected during the first field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. Data were collected using a 26-foot (ft) Glacier Bay Catamaran. Side scan sonar and interferometric swath bathymetry data were collected simultaneously along the tracklines. The side scan sonar towfish was towed off the port side just slightly behind the vessel, close to the seafloor. The interferometric swath transducer was sled-mounted on a rail attached between the catamaran hulls. During the survey the sled is secured into position. Navigation was acquired with a CodaOctopus Octopus F190 Precision Attitude and Positioning System and differentially corrected with OmniSTAR. See the digital FACS equipment log for details about the acquisition equipment used. Both raw datasets were stored digitally and processed using CARIS HIPS and SIPS software at the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center. For more information on processing refer to the Equipment and Processing page. Post-processing of the swath dataset revealed a motion artifact that is attributed to movement of the pole that the swath transducers are attached to in relation to the boat. The survey took place in the winter months, in which strong winds and rough waves contributed to a reduction in data quality. The rough seas contributed to both the movement of the pole and the very high noise base seen in the raw amplitude data of the side scan sonar. Chirp data were also collected during this survey and are archived separately.

Mississippi

The rainfall-triggered landslide and flash-flood disaster in northern Venezuela, December 1999

Rainstorms in December 1999 induced thousands of landslides along the northern slopes of the Cordillera de la Costa mountain range principally in the state of Vargas, Venezuela . Rainfall accumulation of 293 millimeters during the first 2 weeks of December was followed by an additional 911 millimeters of rainfall on December 14 through 16. The landslides and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll estimated at between 15,000 and 30,000 people. Debris flow damage to houses, buildings, and infrastructure in the narrow coastal zone was severe. Flash floods on alluvial fans at the mouths of rivers draining the coastal mountain range also contributed to the general destruction. In time scales spanning decades to centuries, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are areas of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise directly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide the only relatively flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. A limited assessment of the distribution and character of landslides is currently in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.

Conference Paper

Natural hazards on alluvial fans: the debris flow and flash flood disaster of December 1999, Vargas state, Venezuela

Large populations live on or near alluvial fans in locations such as Los Angeles, California, Salt Lake City, Utah, Denver, Colorado, and lesser known areas such as Sarno, Italy, and Vargas, Venezuela. Debris flows and flash floods occur episodically in these alluvial fan environments, and place many communities at high risk during intense and prolonged rainfall. In December 1999, rainstorms induced thousands of landslides along the Cordillera de la Costa, Vargas, Venezuela. Rainfall accumulation of 293 mm during the first 2 weeks of December was followed by an additional 911 mm of rainfall on December 14 through 16. Debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll of as many as 30,000 people. Flash floods and debris flows caused severe property destruction on alluvial fans at the mouths of the coastal mountain drainage network. In time scales spanning thousands of years, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are dynamic zones of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise abruptly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide practically the only flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. KEY TERMS: Debris flows, flash floods, alluvial fans, natural hazards, landslides, Venezuela

Conference Paper

Growth of greater white-fronted goose goslings relates to population dynamics at multiple scales

The abundance of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons frontalis ) on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska, USA, has more than tripled since the late 1990s; however, recent rate of annual population growth has declined as population size increased, which may indicate white-fronted geese on the ACP are approaching carrying capacity. We examined rates of gosling growth in greater white-fronted geese at 3 sites on the ACP during 2012–2014 to assist with predictions of future population trends and assess evidence for density-dependent constraints on recruitment. We marked goslings at hatch with individually coded webtags and conducted brood drives during early August to capture, measure, and weigh goslings. Annual estimates of gosling mass at 32 days old (range = 1,190–1,685) indicate that goslings had obtained >60% of asymptotic size. This rate of growth corresponds with that of other goose species and populations with access to high-quality forage and no limitations on forage availability, and is consistent with the overall increase in abundance of white-fronted geese at the ACP scale. Contrary to most previous investigations, age-adjusted mass of goslings did not decline with hatch date. Goslings grew faster in coastal areas than at inland freshwater sites. Taken together, these findings suggest forage was not limiting gosling growth rates in either ecosystem, but forage was of greater quality in coastal areas where goose foraging habitat is expanding because of permafrost subsidence. Spatial patterns of gosling growth corresponded with local-scale patterns of population density and population change; the areas with greatest rates of gosling growth were those with the greatest population density and rates of population increase. We found little evidence to suggest forage during brood rearing was limiting population increase of white-fronted geese on the ACP. Factors responsible for the apparent slowing of ACP-wide population growth are likely those that occur in stages of the annual cycle outside of the breeding grounds.

Alaska

Archive of side scan sonar and swath bathymetry data collected during USGS cruise 10CCT03 offshore of the Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, from East Ship Island, Mississippi, to Dauphin Island, Alabama, April 2010

In April of 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a geophysical survey from the east end of East Ship Island, Miss., extending to the middle of Dauphin Island, Ala. (fig. 1). This survey had a dual purpose: (1) to interlink previously conducted nearshore geophysical surveys (shoreline to ~2 km) with those of offshore surveys (~2 to ~9 km) in the area, and (2) to extend the geophysical survey to include a portion of the Dauphin Island nearshore zone. The efforts were part of the USGS Gulf of Mexico Science Coordination partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to assist the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP) and the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazards Susceptibility Project by mapping the shallow geological stratigraphic framework of the Mississippi Barrier Island Complex. These geophysical surveys will provide the data necessary for scientists to define, interpret, and provide baseline bathymetry and seafloor habitat for this area and to aid scientists in predicting future geomorpholocial changes of the islands with respect to climate change, storm impact, and sea-level rise. Furthermore, these data will provide information for barrier island restoration feasibility, particularly in Camille Cut, and efforts for the preservation of historical Fort Massachusetts. For more information refer to http://ngom.usgs.gov/gomsc/mscip/. This report serves as an archive of the processed multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar (SSS) data. Data products herein include gridded and interpolated digital depth surfaces, seabed surface backscatter imagery, and x,y,z data products for both multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar imagery. Additional files include trackline maps, navigation files, geograpahic information system (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Scanned images of the handwritten FACS logs and digital FACS logs are also provided as PDF files. Refer to the Acronyms page for description of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report or hold the cursor over an acronym for a pop-up explanation. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 10CCT03 tells us the data were collected in 2010 for the Coastal Change and Transport (CCT) study and the data were collected during the third (03) field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. Data were collected aboard the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) SV Irvington , a 56-foot (ft) Kvichak Marine Industries, Inc., catamaran (fig. 2). Side scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry data were collected simultaneously along the tracklines. The side scan sonar towfish was towed off the starboard side just slightly behind the vessel, close to the seafloor. The multibeam transducer was attached to a retractable strut-arm lowered between the catamaran hulls. Navigation was acquired with an Applanix POS MV and differentially corrected using the broadcast signal from a local National Geodetic Survey (NGS) Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) beacon. See the digital FACS equipment log for details about the acquisition equipment used. Raw datasets were stored digitally and processed using HYPACK Inc., HYSWEEP software at the USACE Mobile, Ala., District office. For more information on processing refer to the Equipment and Processing page. Chirp seismic data were also collected during this survey and are archived separately.

Gulf Islands National Seashore

Plant migration due to winter climate change: Range expansion of tropical invasive plants in response to warming winters

Warming winters due to climate change can facilitate the range expansion of invasive non-native species. In the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme winter temperatures determines the northern range limits of many tropical organisms including many species of invasive non-native plants. However, the effects of winter climate change on invasive species’ range limits have been understudied. Here, we used temperature and species occurrence data to examine the sensitivity of invasive tropical plant species to freezing temperatures. We also examined the potential for northward range expansion of these species due to winter climate change. From an initial group of 81 invasive plant species selected due to their ability to transform native plant communities, our analyses identify and quantify species-specific temperature thresholds for 40 tropical, cold sensitive species. Future winter warming scenarios indicate that these tropical invasive plant species have the potential for northward range expansion across the southeastern United States in response to small changes in the severity of winter cold temperature extremes. The potential for range expansion is greatest in coastal areas, which typically have warmer temperatures than inland counterparts. Thus, coastal regions are likely to serve as biological invasion hotspots from which invasive species expand into inland areas. The state of Florida has become a global hotspot for biological invasions, with tens of millions of dollars (US) spent annually to control the ecological and societal impacts of invasive plants on publicly held conservation lands. Collectively, our results underscore the need to better anticipate and prepare for the northward range expansion of invasive plants from Florida into the southeastern United States in response to winter climate change.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina