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USGS2022

A menu of climate change adaptation actions for terrestrial wildlife management

The real-world application of climate change adaptation practices in terrestrial wildlife conservation has been slowed by a lack of practical guidance for wildlife managers. Although there is a rapidly growing body of literature on the topic of climate change adaptation and wildlife management, the literature is weighted towards a narrow range of adaptation actions and administrative or policy recommendations that are typically beyond the decision space and influence of wildlife professionals. We developed a menu of tiered adaptation actions for terrestrial wildlife management to translate broad concepts into actionable approaches to help managers respond to climate change risks and meet desired management goals. The menu includes actions related to managing wildlife populations as well as managing wildlife habitat. We designed this resource to be used with the Adaptation Workbook, a structured decision-support tool for climate adaptation. We describe real-world examples in which managers have used the Wildlife Adaptation Menu to integrate climate adaptation considerations into wildlife management and conservation projects. Our examples illustrate how a comprehensive and structured menu of adaptation approaches can help managers brainstorm specific actions and more easily and clearly communicate the intent of their climate adaptation efforts.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2012

Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

Northern Hemisphere↗

USGS2006

Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1-36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2020

Climate-induced expansions of invasive species in the Pacific Northwest, North America: A synthesis of observations and projections

Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing on terrestrial (n = 2) or aquatic (n = 3) species within the PNW. Only 93 studies predicted the future dynamics of the focal NIS somewhere in their non-native range using climate model projections, yielding 117 species-specific predictions. However, only 30 of those studies generated predictions that overlapped with the PNW, and only six focused specifically on the expansion or abundance of NIS (n = 11 species) entirely within the region. Although our understanding of how climate change may interact with biological invasions is notably lacking, some evidence suggests that climate-induced NIS expansions are already underway in the PNW, particularly in aquatic ecosystems, and will be exacerbated by future changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Better information is urgently needed for managers to implement strategic prevention, early detection, and proactive actions that ameliorate ecologically and economically devastating impacts of NIS.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗

USGS2012

Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2025

Do watershed conditions or local climate play a larger role in determining regional stream salamander distributions?

Anthropogenic influences like land use and climate variability interact with natural heterogeneity to influence the persistence of stream salamanders. Using occupancy modeling in the southern Appalachian Mountains, we investigated the influence of land use, climate, and physical context (e.g., drainage area, elevation) on stream salamander occupancy, noting species, and life stage specific responses. Our results illustrate that forest loss is a better predictor of salamander occupancy than physical context (elevation) or climate. Across the gradients in this dataset, precipitation did not have a significant influence on salamander occupancy, potentially due to the observed narrow, wet gradient. Temperature had little effect on Eurycea wilderae occupancy; however, temperature negatively affected adult but not larval Desmognathus amphileucus occupancy . Spatial thermal variability in this study was larger than projected increases due to climate change, suggesting that local mechanisms (e.g., behavior or physiological plasticity) may facilitate salamander resilience to climate change. However, the negative effects of forest loss coupled with rising temperatures (e.g., increased solar radiation, warmer stream runoff) underscore the importance of riparian forests in mitigating climate stressors. Preserving forest cover is critical for maintaining stream salamander populations and may offer opportunities for maintaining resilience in the face of additional stressors like rising temperatures or drought.

Georgia, North Carolina↗

USGS2024

Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand

Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗

USGS2014

Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2015

Impacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward

Despite increasing concern that climate change may negatively impact trout—a globally distributed group of fish with major economic, ecological, and cultural value—a synthetic assessment of empirical data quantifying relationships between climatic variation and trout ecology does not exist. We conducted a systematic review to describe how temporal variation in temperature and streamflow influences trout ecology in freshwater ecosystems. Few studies ( n = 42) have quantified relationships between temperature or streamflow and trout demography, growth, or phenology, and nearly all estimates (96 %) were for Salvelinus fontinalis and Salmo trutta . Only seven studies used temporal data to quantify climate-driven changes in trout ecology. Results from these studies were beset with limitations that prohibited quantitatively rigorous meta-analysis, a concerning inadequacy given major investment in trout conservation and management worldwide. Nevertheless, consistent patterns emerged from our synthesis, particularly a positive effect of summer streamflow on trout demography and growth; 64 % of estimates were positive and significant across studies, age classes, species, and locations, highlighting that climate-induced changes in hydrology may have numerous consequences for trout. To a lesser degree, summer and fall temperatures were negatively related to population demography (51 and 53 % of estimates, respectively), but temperature was rarely related to growth. To address limitations and uncertainties, we recommend: (1) systematically improving data collection, description, and sharing; (2) appropriately integrating climate impacts with other intrinsic and extrinsic drivers over the entire lifecycle; (3) describing indirect consequences of climate change; and (4) acknowledging and describing intrinsic resiliency.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2017

Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2018

Wetlands in a changing climate: Science, policy and management

Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.

Wetlands↗

USGS2017

A quantitative comparison of Soil Development in four climatic regimes

A new quantitative Soil Development Index based on field data has been applied to chronosequences formed under different climatic regimes. The four soil chronosequences, developed primarily on sandy deposits, have some numeric age control and are located in xeric-inland (Merced, Calif.), xeric-coastal (Ventura, Calif.), aridic (Las Cruces, N. Mex.), and udic (Susquehanna Valley, Pa.) soil-moisture regimes. To quantify field properties, points are assigned for developmental increases in soil properties in comparison to the parent material. Currently ten soil-field properties are quantified and normalized for each horizon in a given chronosequence, including two new properties for carbonate-rich soils in addition to the eight properties previously defined. When individual properties or the combined indexes are plotted as a function of numeric age, rates of soil development can be compared in different climates. The results demonstrate that (1) the Soil Development Index can be applied to very different soil types, (2) many field properties develop systematically in different climatic regimes, (3) certain properties appear to have similar rates of development in different climates, and (4) the Profile Index that combines different field properties increases significantly with age and appears to develop at similar rates in different climates. The Soil Development Index can serve as a preliminary guide to soil age where other age control is lacking and can be used to correlate deposits of different geographical and climatic regions. ?? 1983.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS1984

Changing patterns of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation and implications of climatic control on coal occurrence

Improved regional and interregional stratigraphic correlations of Pennsylvanian strata permit comparisons of vegetational changes in Euramerican coal swamps. The coal-swamp vegetation is known directly from in situ coal-ball peat deposits from more than 65 coals in the United States and Europe. Interpretations of coal-swamp floras on the basis of coal-ball peat studies are extended to broader regional and stratigraphic patterns by use of coal palynology. Objectives of the quantitative analyses of the vegetation in relation to coal are to determine the botanical constituents at the peat stage and their environmental implications for plant growth and peat accumulation. Morphological and paleoecological analyses provide a basis for deducing freshwater regimes of coal swamps. Changes in composition of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation are quire similar from one paralic coal region to another and show synchrony that is attributable to climate. Paleobotany and paleogeography of the Euramerican province indicate a moist tropical paleoclimate. Rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration were the variable climatic controls in the distribution of coal-swamp vegetation, peat accumulation and coal resources. In relative terms of climatic wetness the Pennsylvanian Period is divisible into five intervals, which include two relatively drier intervals that developed during the Lower-Middle and Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian transitions. The climate during Early Pennsylvanian time was moderately wet and the median in moisture availability. Early Middle Pennsylvanian was drier, probably seasonally dry-wet; late Middle Pennsylvanian was the wettest in the Midcontinent; early Late Pennsylvanian was the driest; and late Late Pennsylvanian was probably the wettest in the Dunkard Basin. The five climatic intervals represent a general means of dividing coal resources within each region into groups with similar botanical constituents and environments of peat accumulation. Regional differences in basinal geology and climate were significant variables, but the synchronous control of paleoclimate was of primary importance.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2011

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Southern Appalachian Mountains↗

USGS2016

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis , in the Mojave Desert, USA

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis . Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis , thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km 2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

California↗

USGS2016

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna , and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2025

Climate and land use drivers of freshwater fish biodiversity in the northeastern United States

Freshwater habitats can sustain high biodiversity, but habitat degradation, species invasion, and overexploitation have imperiled freshwater species. The multiple threats to freshwater habitats and changing stream characteristics due to climate change make it challenging to identify the drivers of fish vulnerability, especially given that the importance of drivers may vary by the biodiversity endpoint. The goals of this study were to 1) describe freshwater (lotic) fish biodiversity across northeastern states in the United States, and 2) identify geographic, climate, and land use drivers of fish biodiversity, toward improving freshwater fish conservation. We predicted habitat suitability for 53 fish species using survey data and corresponding geographic, climate, and land use data. After model fitting, we grouped species using a traditional approach based on traits and a new approach using modeled streamflow and stream temperature to create clusters. We found that climate and land use vulnerable groups did not always have similar geographic patterns or relationships to the climate or land use variables, suggesting that biota vulnerable to changing conditions may be overlooked by reliance on predefined guilds to set conservation goals. Biodiversity groups that were vulnerable to climate variables were also related to land use variables that can be used to identify restoration opportunities. This approach may be useful for managers interested in holistic freshwater management under changing stream conditions.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2019

The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards

Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scale changes to the climate altering the frequency, direction, and intensity of storms, may therefore propagate to the nearshore differently, amplifying or suppressing local coastal hazards and changing the exposure of coastal communities to extreme TWLs. This study investigates the hydrodynamic and geomorphologic factors controlling local TWLs along high-energy United States coastlines where wave-influences dominate TWLs. Three study sites in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California are chosen to explore how regional and local differences in beach topography and wave transformation over shelf bathymetry drives variations in the magnitude and impacts of extreme TWLs. Results indicate that TWLs are most influenced by wave transformation processes in locations with steep beach slopes (which drive larger relative contributions of wave runup) and complex offshore bathymetry, while beach topography influences the severity of coastal impacts. Once the relative morphologic controls on TWLs are better understood, hypothetical future climate scenarios are explored to assess how changes to the average deepwater wave climate (height, period, and direction) may alter local TWLs when compared to estimates of likely sea level rise and future coastal management strategies. Changes to the wave climate are found to be as detrimental to the coastline as sea level rise in some locations, where small variations of the TWL drive large, nonlinear changes in hours of impact to the backshore beach. Overall, this study develops an approach for quantifying the range of hydrodynamic and morphologic controls on the magnitude of TWLs which will ultimately better prepare coastal communities for uncertain changes to the global climate.

California, Oregon, Washington↗