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Estimates of future water demand for selected water-service areas in the upper Duck River basin, central Tennessee

Estimates of future water demand were determined for selected water-service areas in the upper Duck River basin in central Tennessee through the year 2050. The Duck River is the principal source of publicly-supplied water in the study area providing a total of 15.6 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1993 to the cities of Columbia, Lewisburg, Shelbyville, part of southern Williamson County, and several smaller communities. Municipal water use increased 19 percent from 1980 to 1993 (from 14.5 to 17.2 Mgal/d). Based on certain assumptions about socioeconomic conditions and future development in the basin, water demand should continue to increase through 2050. Projections of municipal water demand for the study area from 1993 to 2015 were made using econometric and single- coefficient (unit-use) requirement models of the per capita type. The models are part of the Institute for Water Resources-Municipal and Industrial Needs System, IWR-MAIN. Socioeconomic data for 1993 were utilized to calibrate the models. Projections of water demand in the study area from 2015 to 2050 were made using a single- coefficient requirement model. A gross per capita use value (unit-requirement) was estimated for each water-service area based on the results generated by IWR-MAIN for year 2015. The gross per capita estimate for 2015 was applied to population projections for year 2050 to calculate water demand. Population was projected using the log-linear form of the Box-Cox regression model. Water demand was simulated for two scenarios. The scenarios were suggested by various planning agencies associated with the study area. The first scenario reflects a steady growth pattern based on present demographic and socioeconomic conditions in the Bedford, Marshall, and Maury/southern Williamson water-service areas. The second scenario considers steady growth in the Bedford and Marshall water-service areas and additional industrial and residential development in the Maury/southern Williamson water-service area beginning in 2000. For the study area, water demand for scenario one shows an increase of 121 percent (from 17.2 to 38 Mgal/d) from 1993 to 2050. In scenario two, simulated water demand increases 150 percent (17.2 to 43 Mgal/d) from 1993 to 2050.

Tennessee

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the Chehalis River basin, Washington

The Chehalis River has the largest drainage basin of any river entirely contained within the State of Washington with a watershed of approximately 2,700 mi 2 and has correspondingly diverse geology and land use. Demands for water resources have prompted the local citizens and governments of the Chehalis River basin to coordinate with Federal, State and Tribal agencies through the Chehalis Basin Partnership to develop a long-term watershed management plan. The recognition of the interdependence of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Chehalis River basin became the impetus for this study, the purpose of which is to describe the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the Chehalis River basin. Surficial geologic maps and 372 drillers' lithostratigraphic logs were used to generalize the basin-wide hydrogeologic framework. Five hydrogeologic units that include aquifers within unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments separated by discontinuous confining units were identified. These five units are bounded by a low permeability unit comprised of Tertiary bedrock. A water table map, and generalized groundwater-flow directions in the surficial aquifers, were delineated from water levels measured in wells between July and September 2009. Groundwater generally follows landsurface-topography from the uplands to the alluvial valley of the Chehalis River. Groundwater gradients are highest in tributary valleys such as the Newaukum River valley (approximately 23 cubic feet per mile), relatively flat in the central Chehalis River valley (approximately 6 cubic feet per mile), and become tidally influenced near the outlet of the Chehalis River to Grays Harbor. The dynamic interaction between groundwater and surface-water was observed through the synoptic streamflow measurements, termed a seepage run, made during August 2010, and monitoring of water levels in wells during the 2010 Water Year. The seepage run revealed an overall gain of 56.8 ± 23.7 cubic feet per second over 32.8 river miles (1.7 cubic feet per second per mile), and alternating gains and losses of streamflow ranging from -48.3 to 30.9 cubic feet per second per mile, which became more pronounced on the Chehalis River downstream of Grand Mound. However, most gains and losses were within measurement error. Groundwater levels measured in wells in unconsolidated sediments fluctuated with changes in stream stage, often within several hours. These fluctuations were set by precipitation events in the upper Chehalis River basin and tides of the Pacific Ocean in the lower Chehalis River basin.±

Scientific Investigations Report

Geomorphic map of Worcester County, Maryland, interpreted from a LIDAR-based, digital elevation model

A recently compiled mosaic of a LIDAR-based digital elevation model (DEM) is presented with geomorphic analysis of new macro-topographic details. The geologic framework of the surficial and near surface late Cenozoic deposits of the central uplands, Pocomoke River valley, and the Atlantic Coast includes Cenozoic to recent sediments from fluvial, estuarine, and littoral depositional environments. Extensive Pleistocene (cold climate) sandy dune fields are deposited over much of the terraced landscape. The macro details from the LIDAR image reveal 2 meter-scale resolution of details of the shapes of individual dunes, and fields of translocated sand sheets. Most terrace surfaces are overprinted with circular to elliptical rimmed basins that represent complex histories of ephemeral ponds that were formed, drained, and overprinted by younger basins. The terrains of composite ephemeral ponds and the dune fields are inter-shingled at their margins indicating contemporaneous erosion, deposition, and re-arrangement and possible internal deformation of the surficial deposits. The aggregate of these landform details and their deposits are interpreted as the products of arid, cold climate processes that were common to the mid-Atlantic region during the Last Glacial Maximum. In the Pocomoke valley and its larger tributaries, erosional remnants of sandy flood plains with anastomosing channels indicate the dynamics of former hydrology and sediment load of the watershed that prevailed at the end of the Pleistocene. As the climate warmed and precipitation increased during the transition from late Pleistocene to Holocene, dune fields were stabilized by vegetation, and the stream discharge increased. The increased discharge and greater local relief of streams graded to lower sea levels stimulated down cutting and created the deeply incised valleys out onto the continental shelf. These incised valleys have been filling with fluvial to intertidal deposits that record the rising sea level and warmer, more humid climate in the mid-Atlantic region throughout the Holocene. Thus, the geomorphic details provided by the new LIDAR DEM actually record the response of the landscape to abrupt climate change. Holocene trends and land-use patterns from Colonial to modern times can also be interpreted from the local macro- scale details of the landscape. Beyond the obvious utility of these data for land-use planning and assessments of resources and hazards, the new map presents new details on the impact of climate changes on a mid-latitude, outer Coastal plain landscape.

Maryland

Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Haines area, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in urban areas. Study of the Haines area constitutes an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. The evaluations of geologic hazards that follow, although based only upon reconnaissance studies and, therefore, subject to revision, will provide broad guidelines useful in city and land-use planning. It is hoped that the knowledge gained will result in new facilities being built in the best possible geologic environments and being designed so as to minimize future loss of life and property damage. Haines, which is in the northern part of southeastern Alaska approximately 75 miles northwest of Juneau, had a population, of about 700 people in 1970. It is built at the northern end of the Chilkat Peninsula and lies within the Coast Mountains of the Pacific Mountain system. The climate is predominantly marine and is characterized by mild winters and cool summers. The mapped area described in this report comprises about 17 square miles of land; deep fiords constitute most of the remaining mapped area that is evaluated in this study. The Haines area was covered by glacier ice at least once and probably several times during the Pleistocene Epoch. The presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land has been uplifted relative to sea level since the last major deglaciation of the region about 10,000 years ago. The rate of relative uplift of the land at Haines during the past 39 years is 2.26 cm per year. Most or all of this uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Both bedrock and surficial deposits are present in the area. Metamorphic and igneous rocks constitute the exposed bedrock. The metamorphic rocks consist of metabasalt of Mesozoic age and pyroxenite of probable early middle Cretaceous age. The igneous rocks consist of diorite and quartz diorite (tonalite) of Cretaceous age. Sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age may be present in the mapped area but are not exposed. The surficial deposits of Quaternary age,-have been divided into the following map units on the basis of time Of deposition, mode of origin, and grain size: (1) undifferentiated drift deposits, (2) outwash and Ice-contact deposits; (3) elevated fine-grained marine deposits, (4) elevated shore and delta deposits, (5) alluvial fan deposits, (6) colluvial deposits, (7) modern beach deposits, (8) Chilkat River flood-plain and delta deposits, and (9) manmade fill. Offshore deposits are described but are not mapped. Southeastern Alaska lies within the tectonically active belt that rims the northern Pacific Basin and has been active since at least early Paleozoic time. The outcrop pattern is the result of late Mesozoic and Tertiary deformational, metamorphic, and intrusive events. Large-scale faulting has been common. The two most prominent inferred fault systems in southeastern Alaska and surrounding regions are: (1) The Denali fault system and (2) the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system. In the general area of Haines, rocks of Mesozoic age northeast of Chilkat River have a simple monoclinal structure. Paleozoic-Mesozoic rocks southwest of Chilkat River are gently to rather complexly folded. Several major and numerous minor faults probably transect the general area of Haines but their exact location and character can only be inferred because their traces are coincident to the long axes of fiords and river valleys, where they are concealed by water or by valley-floor deposits. Inferred faults in or near the Haines mapped area are: (1) Chilkat River fault, (2) Chilkoot fault, (3) Takhin fault, and (4) faults in the saddle area at Haines. Southeastern Alaska lies in one of the two most seismically active zones in Alaska, a State where 6 percent of the world's shallow earthqua

Open-File Report

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

The intense drought throughout Texas during 2011 resulted in substantial declines in streamflow. By April 2011, nearly all of the State was experiencing severe to extreme drought according to data from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln Drought Monitor. By the end of July 2011, more than 75 percent of the State was experiencing exceptional drought. The worst of the drought occurred around October 4, 2011, when 97 percent of Texas was suffering from extreme to exceptional drought. The historical drought of 1951–56 has long been used by water-resource managers, engineers, and scientists as a point of reference for water-supply planning. A comparison of drought conditions during the 2011 water year (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) to the historical drought of 1951–56 from a hydrologic perspective serves as an additional reference for water-supply planning. A record low statewide average annual precipitation of 11.27 inches for the period 1895–2011 was recorded during the 2011 water year; the prior record low statewide average precipitation was 13.91 inches during the 1956 water year. The statewide monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) declined to -7.93 during September 2011, which was larger in magnitude than the statewide PDSI during any drought-affected month in the 1950s. Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

Texas

Water-quality characteristics and suspended sediment of the Clinch and Powell rivers in northeastern Tennessee, 1989-94

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tennessee State Planning Office, conducted a 4 l/2-year water-quality study in the Clinch and Powell River drainage basins in northeastern Tennessee. An intermittent sampling program was conducted from June 1989 through January 1994. Water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for an upstream site and a downstream site on each river. The upstream sites were near the Tennessee-Virginia State line, and the downstream sites were located on the rivers upstream of Norris Lake. At the upstream sites, fecal coliform bacteria exceeded the water-quality criteria for recreational use in 14 of 40 samples. At the downstream sites, counts exceeded the criteria limits in 2 out of 22 samples. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds were within the range expected for natural surface water. Nutrient discharge did not correlate well to streamflow, rainfall, and seasonal effects. Suspended-sediment discharge at the four study sites was related to streamflow, a rainfall factor, and seasonal effects. Average annual sediment yields among sites were estimated at 97 tons per square mile per year on the Clinch River and 184 tons per square mile per year on the Powell River. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, sulfate, chloride, silica, and fluoride were all measured within the range expected for a natural carbonate system. Instantaneous total-iron concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria for fish and aquatic life at the upstream sites in 23 of 28 samples on the Clinch River, and in 38 of 44 samples on the Powell River. At the downstream sites, total iron exceeded the same criteria in 2 of 5 samples on the Clinch River, and in 1 of 4 samples on the Powell River.

Tennessee

Geologic Cross Section E-E' through the Appalachian Basin from the Findlay Arch, Wood County, Ohio, to the Valley and Ridge Province, Pendleton County, West Virginia

Geologic cross section E-E' is the first in a series of cross sections planned by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to document and improve understanding of the geologic framework and petroleum systems of the Appalachian basin. Cross section E-E' provides a regional view of the structural and stratigraphic framework of the basin from the Findlay arch in northwestern Ohio to the Valley and Ridge province in eastern West Virginia, a distance of approximately 380 miles (mi) (fig. 1, on sheet 1). Cross section E-E' updates earlier geologic cross sections through the central Appalachian basin by Renfro and Feray (1970), Bennison (1978), and Bally and Snelson (1980) and a stratigraphic cross section by Colton (1970). Although other published cross sections through parts of the basin show more structural detail (for example, Shumaker, 1985; Kulander and Dean, 1986) and stratigraphic detail (for example, Ryder, 1992; de Witt and others, 1993; Hettinger, 2001), these other cross sections are of more limited extent geographically and stratigraphically. Although specific petroleum systems in the Appalachian basin are not identified on the cross section, many of their key elements (such as source rocks, reservoir rocks, seals, and traps) can be inferred from lithologic units, unconformities, and geologic structures shown on the cross section. Other aspects of petroleum systems (such as the timing of petroleum generation and preferred migration pathways) may be evaluated by burial history, thermal history, and fluid flow models based on information shown on the cross section. Cross section E-E' lacks the detail to illustrate key elements of coal systems (such as paleoclimate, coal quality, and coal rank), but it does provide a general framework (stratigraphic units and general rock types) for the coal-bearing section. Also, cross section E-E' may be used as a reconnaissance tool to identify plausible geologic structures and strata for the subsurface storage of liquid waste (for example, Colton, 1961; Lloyd and Reid, 1990) or for the sequestration of carbon dioxide (for example, Smith and others, 2002; Lucier and others, 2006).

Scientific Investigations Map

Summary of the Snake River plain Regional Aquifer-System Analysis in Idaho and eastern Oregon

Regional aquifers underlying the 15,600-square-mile Snake River Plain in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon was studied as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Regional Aquifer-System Analysis program. The largest and most productive aquifers in the Snake River Plain are composed of Quaternary basalt of the Snake River Group, which underlies most of the 10,8000-square-mile eastern plain. Aquifer tests and simulation indicate that transmissivity of the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer in the eastern plain commonly ranges from about 100,000 to 1,000,000 feet squared per day. However, transmissivity of the total aquifer thickness may be as much as 10 million feet squared per day. Specific yield of the upper 200 feet of the aquifer ranges from about 0.01 to 0.20. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer ranges from less than 100 to 9,000 feet per day. Values may be one to several orders of magnitude higher in parts in individual flows, such as flow tops. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is probably several orders of magnitude lower than horizontal hydraulic conductivity and is generally related to the number of joints. Pillow lava in ancestral Snake River channels has the highest hydraulic conductivity of all rock types. Hydraulic conductivity of the basalt decreases with depth because of secondary filling of voids with calcite and silica. An estimated 80 to 120 million acre-feet of water is believed to be stored in the upper 200 feet of the basalt aquifer in the eastern plain. The most productive aquifers in the 4,800-square-mile western plain are alluvial sand and gravel in the Boise River valley. Although aquifer tests indicate that transmissivity of alluvium in the Boise River valley ranges from 5,000 to 160,000 feet squared per day, simulation suggests that average transmissivity of the upper 500 feet is generally less than 20,000 feet squared per day. Vertically averaged horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the upper 500 feet of alluvium ranges from about 4 to 40 feet per day; higher values can be expected in individual sand and gravel zones. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is considerably lower because of the presence of clay layers. Hydraulic heads measured in piezometers, interpreted from diagrams showing ground-water flow and equipotential lines and estimated by computer simulation, demonstrate that water movement is three dimensional through the rock framework. Natural recharge takes place along the margins of the plain where head decreases with depth; discharge takes place near some reaches of the Snake River and the Boise River where head increases with depth. Geothermal water in rhyolitic rocks in the western plain and western part of the eastern plain has higher hydraulic head than the overlying cold water. Geothermal water, therefore, moves upward and merges into the cold-water system. Basin water-budget analyses indicate that the volume of cold water. Carbon-14 age determinations, which indicate that residence time of geothermal water is 17,700 to 20,300 years, plus or minus 4,000 years, imply slow movement of water through the geothermal system. Along much of its length, the Snake River gains large quantities of ground water. On the eastern plain, the river gained about 1.9 million acre-feet of water between Blackfoot and Neeley, Idaho, in 1980. Between Milner and King Hill, Idaho, the river gained 4.7 million acre-feet, mostly as spring flow from the north side. Upstream from Blackfoot and in the vicinity of Lake Walcott, the rover loses flow to ground water during parts or all of the year. On the western plain, river gains from ground water are small relative to those on the eastern plain; most are from seepage. Streams in tributary drainage basins supply calcium/bicarbonate type and calcium/magnesium/bicarbonate type water to the plain. Water type is a reflection of the chemical composition of rocks in the drainage basin, Concentrations of dissolved solids are smallest, about 50 milligrams per liter, in streams such as the Boise River that drain areas of granitic rocks; concentrations are greatest, about 400 milligrams per liter, in streams such as the Owyhee and Raft Rivers that drain area of sedimentary rocks. Water chemistry reflects the interaction of surface water and ground water. The chemical composition of ground water in the plain is essentially the same as that in streamflow and groundwater discharge from tributary drainage basins. Tributary drainage basins supplied 85 percent of the ground-water recharge in the eastern plain during 1980 and a nearly equivalent percentage of the solute load in ground water; human activities and dissolution of minerals supplied the other solutes. Dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water were generally less than 400 milligrams per liter. Water from the lower geothermal system is chemically different from water from the upper cold-water system. Geothermal water typically has greater concentrations of sodium, bicarbonate, sulfate, chloride, fluoride, silica, arsenic, boron, and lithium and smaller concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and hydrogen. Difference are attributed to ion exchange as geothermal moves through the rock framework. Irrigation, mostly on the Snake River Plain, accounted for about 96 percent of consumptive water use in Idaho during 1980. The use of surface water for irrigation for more than 100 years has caused major changes in the hydrologic system on the plain. Construction of dams, reservoirs, and diversifications effected planned changes in the surface-water system but resulted in largely unplanned changes in the ground-water system. During those years of irrigation, annual recharge in the main part of the eastern plain increased to about 6.7 million acre-feet in 1980, or by about 70 percent. Most of the increase was from percolation of surface water diverted for irrigation. From preirrigation to 1952, groundwater storage increased about 24 million acre-feet, and storage decreased from 1952 to 1964 and from 1976 to 1980 because of below-normal precipitation and increased withdrawals of ground water for irrigation. Annual ground-water discharge increased to about 7.1 million acre-feet in 1980, or about 80 percent since the start of irrigation. About 10 percent of the 1980 total discharge was ground-water pumpage. About 3.1 million acres, or almost one-third of the plain, was irrigated during 1980: 2.0 million acres with surface water, 1.0 million acres with ground water, and 0.1 million acres with combined surface and ground water. About 8.9 million acre-feet of Snake River water was diverted for irrigation during 1980 and 2.3 million acre-feet of ground water was pumped from 5,300 wells. Most irrigation wells on the eastern plain are open to basalt. About two-thirds of them yield more than 1,500 gallons per minute with a reported maximum of 7,240 gallons per minute; drawdown is less than 20 feet in two-thirds of the wells. Most irrigation wells on the western plain are open to sedimentary rocks. About one-third of them yield more than 1,00 gallons per minute with a reported maximum of 3,850 gallons per minute; drawndown is less than 20 feet in about one-fifth of the wells. The major instream use of water on the Snake River Plain is hydroelectric power generation. Fifty-two million acre-feet of water generated 2.6 million megawatthours of electricity during 1980. Digital computer ground-water flows models of the eastern and western plain reasonably simulated regional changes in water levels and ground-water discharges from 1880 (preirrigation) to 1980. Model results support the concept of three-dimensional flow and the hypotheses of no underflow between the eastern and western plain. Simulation of the regional aquifer system in the eastern plain indicates that is 1980 hydrologic conditions, including pumpage, were to remain the same for another 30 years, moderate declines in ground-water levels and decreases in spring discharges would continue. Increased ground-water pumpage to irrigate an additional 1 million acres could cause ground-water levels to decline a few tens of feet in the central part of the plain and could cause corresponding decreases in ground-water discharge. A combination of actions such as increased ground-water pumpage and decreased use of surface water for irrigation (resulting in reduced recharge) would accentuate the changes.

Idaho;Oregon

Groundwater and surface-water resources in the Bureau of Land Management Moab Master Leasing Plan area and adjacent areas, Grand and San Juan Counties, Utah, and Mesa and Montrose Counties, Colorado

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Canyon Country District Office is preparing a leasing plan known as the Moab Master Leasing Plan (Moab MLP) for oil, gas, and potash mineral rights in an area encompassing 946,469 acres in southeastern Utah. The BLM has identified water resources as being potentially affected by oil, gas, and potash development and has requested that the U.S. Geological Survey prepare a summary of existing water-resources information for the Moab MLP area. This report includes a summary and synthesis of previous and ongoing investigations conducted in the Moab MLP and adjacent areas in Utah and Colorado from the early 1930s through the late 2000s. Eight principal aquifers and six confining units were identified within the study area. Permeability is a function of both the primary permeability from interstitial pore connectivity and secondary permeability created by karst features or faults and fractures. Vertical hydraulic connection generally is restricted to strongly folded and fractured zones, which are concentrated along steeply dipping monoclines and in narrow regions encompassing igneous and salt intrusive masses. Several studies have identified both an upper and lower aquifer system separated by the Pennsylvanian age Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation evaporite, which is considered a confining unit and is present throughout large parts of the study area. Surface-water resources of the study area are dominated by the Colorado River. Several perennial and ephemeral or intermittent tributaries join the Colorado River as it flows from northeast to southwest across the study area. An annual spring snowmelt and runoff event dominates the hydrology of streams draining mountainous parts of the study area, and most perennial streams in the study area are snowmelt-dominated. A bimodal distribution is observed in hydrographs from some sites with a late-spring snowmelt-runoff peak followed by smaller peaks of shorter duration during the late summer. The large regional streams (Colorado, Green, and Dolores Rivers) integrate the regional hydrologic partitioning of a very large contributing area and, therefore, the hydrographs for these streams are much more smooth and consistent. Several streams throughout the study area are considered impaired and do not meet the standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency for specific designated-use classifications. Limited data are available to quantitatively estimate the large-scale regional groundwater budget for the study area. Previous studies have estimated groundwater budgets for areas in and adjacent to the current study area, namely Moab-Spanish Valley and parts of the Paradox Basin. Most groundwater recharge to the study area originates as infiltration of precipitation from upland areas and is further enhanced in areas covered with sandy soils or in areas where the bedrock is highly fractured. Additional groundwater recharge occurs as seepage from streams and irrigation water, and as subsurface inflow, both vertically between aquifers and as lateral movement into the study area. Groundwater discharge occurs as seepage to streams, evapotranspiration, to springs and seeps, well withdrawals; and as subsurface outflow, both vertically between aquifers and as lateral movement out of the study area across its defined boundaries. Groundwater use in the study area was determined using data from the Utah Division of Water Rights. Most wells in the study area are categorized as having multiple uses. Mean specific-conductance values for groundwater from wells and springs in the study area range from 101 to 220,000 microsiemens per centimeter at 25° C (μS/cm); most of the wells or springs have mean specific-conductance values of less than or equal to 1,000 μS/cm. Previously reported total dissolved-solids concentrations, specific conductances, and other groundwater-quality data for each of the principal aquifers indicate relative freshwater throughout the study area, except within the lower aquifer system and areas in contact with the Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation evaporites. There is limited information on the resource availability of brines and saline groundwater in the study area. Total dissolved-solids concentrations typically are high (greater than 35,000 milligrams per liter) in groundwater from, or in contact with, the Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation. Total dissolved-solids concentrations also are high in groundwater samples collected from the lower aquifer system. Because the Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation is considered a barrier to vertical groundwater flow, most of the brine and saline groundwater resources are restricted to the lower aquifer system.

Colorado, Utah

Monitoring marine eruptions

Introduction Submarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and provides recommendations for monitoring volcanoes fully or partly in marine environments to meet the capabilities described in other chapters of this volume. The United States and its territories host dozens of submarine volcanoes with most (around 60) in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Approximately 20 of the Northern Mariana Islands submarine volcanoes are known to be hydrothermally active, and 10 have confirmed eruptions since the 1950s (for example, Baker and others, 2008; Tepp and others, 2019a). Nine of those volcanoes were considered by the National Volcanic Threat Assessment (Ewert and others, 2018) to have a combination of eruptive type and summit depth that poses a higher risk of hazardous eruptions, although only one was listed as a moderate (level 3) threat. Other notable submarine volcanoes of interest to the United States that have historically erupted are Axial Seamount off the Washington State coast, Kamaʻehuakanaloa in Hawaiʻi, and Vailuluʻu seamount in American Samoa. All of these, however, have a low risk of hazards because of their depth (greater than 600 meters below sea level) and eruptive type and so are not included in the National Volcanic Threat Assessment. In addition to submarine volcanoes, the submerged flanks of island volcanoes can also be a source of hazardous submarine eruptions—for example, the 1877 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, in Kealakekua Bay (Wanless and others, 2006). The most notable submarine eruption in recent times was the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in Tonga, which was one of the largest eruptions on Earth in the past 100 years. It created a massive volcanic plume, unprecedented shock waves, and far-reaching tsunami (Lynett and others, 2022). Other recent submarine eruptions in the Pacific Ocean Basin have produced subaerial plumes that reached aircraft heights (Carey and others, 2014) and large pumice rafts that can affect marine traffic and harbors (for example, Jutzeler and others, 2014; Kornei, 2019). These examples illustrate the potential hazards of major submarine eruptions. Yet, submarine volcanoes are largely unmonitored, and many eruptions occur that are unnoticed or only identified hours or days afterward. Within U.S. territory, submarine volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands have been known to produce eruptive activity that can affect society. Reports from fishermen and other marine vessels in the Northern Mariana Islands have noted underwater explosions, sea-surface discoloration, and bubbling water, all of which are known to be signs of submarine volcanic activity. South Sarigan seamount, located about 160 kilometers (km) north of Saipan, erupted in 2010 from greater than 150 meters below the sea surface, resulting in a gas and ash plume that reached more than 11.9 km into the atmosphere (for example, Searcy, 2013; Embley and others, 2014), high enough to affect international air traffic. Precursory and co-eruptive seismicity was detected on the regional Northern Mariana Islands seismic network (Searcy, 2013) and on global monitoring instruments (Green and others, 2013). Monitoring of submarine volcanoes is best accomplished with marine-based instrumentation, which is also useful for monitoring small island volcanoes that may not have the land area necessary for comprehensive subaerial monitoring. The primary marine-based instrumentation used for submarine volcanoes includes ocean-bottom pressure sensors to assess sea-floor deformation, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) to detect seismicity, and both moored and ocean-bottom hydrophones to detect submarine explosions. Other sensors offer important monitoring data, such as turbidity, temperature, and chemistry of hydrothermal emissions. Marine-based instruments are typically deployed in campaign-style networks with no real-time telemetry owing to cost considerations and technical limitations. However, when necessary, marine instruments can be operated in real time using cables to transmit data to land-based facilities; other technologies for this purpose are in use or in development, such as acoustic transmission from the instrument to a moored buoy (Matsumoto and others, 2016) and a winch-based system with a satellite antenna that is part of the instrument mooring (Matsumoto and others, 2019). Emerging technologies for marine-based monitoring may be considered as part of a future monitoring plan. These technologies include ocean gliders and floats with on-board hydrophones that have been used to record earthquakes and submarine eruptions (for example, Matsumoto and others, 2013; Sukhovich and others, 2015) and fiber-optic cables that have been used as strainmeters to detect earthquakes (for example, Marra and others, 2018; Lindsey and others, 2019). Land-based instruments and satellites can also provide some capability for monitoring submarine volcanoes, but they provide more limited observations than marine-based instrumentation.

Scientific Investigations Report

Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006-2015

To provide Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and its surrounding communities with a modern, comprehensive system for volcano and earthquake monitoring, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) has developed a monitoring plan for the period 2006-2015. Such a plan is needed so that YVO can provide timely information during seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal crises and can anticipate hazardous events before they occur. The monitoring network will also provide high-quality data for scientific study and interpretation of one of the largest active volcanic systems in the world. Among the needs of the observatory are to upgrade its seismograph network to modern standards and to add five new seismograph stations in areas of the park that currently lack adequate station density. In cooperation with the National Science Foundation (NSF) and its Plate Boundary Observatory Program (PBO), YVO seeks to install five borehole strainmeters and two tiltmeters to measure crustal movements. The boreholes would be located in developed areas close to existing infrastructure and away from sensitive geothermal features. In conjunction with the park's geothermal monitoring program, installation of new stream gages, and gas-measuring instruments will allow YVO to compare geophysical phenomena, such as earthquakes and ground motions, to hydrothermal events, such as anomalous water and gas discharge. In addition, YVO seeks to characterize the behavior of geyser basins, both to detect any precursors to hydrothermal explosions and to monitor earthquakes related to fluid movements that are difficult to detect with the current monitoring system. Finally, a monitoring network consists not solely of instruments, but requires also a secure system for real-time transmission of data. The current telemetry system is vulnerable to failures that could jeopardize data transmission out of Yellowstone. Future advances in monitoring technologies must be accompanied by improvements in the infrastructure for data transmission. Overall, our strategy is to (1) maximize our ability to provide rapid assessments of changing conditions to ensure public safety, (2) minimize environmental and visual impact, and (3) install instrumentation in developed areas.

Scientific Investigations Report

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Scientific Investigations Report

Research plan for lands administered by the U.S. Department of the Interior in the Interior Columbia Basin and Snake River Plateau

This document presents a long-term research strategy designed to address current and future research needs for management of Department of the Interior-administered ecosystems in the Intermountain West. Although the research plan was developed in the context of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project, the plan addresses many high-priority issues facing land managers throughout the Intermountain West. These issues pose management challenges that may be addressed with applied research both currently and in upcoming decades. Possessing a particular focus on semiarid ecosystems, the plan is a collection of research questions under five categories of research emphases: 1) restoration; 2) rangeland health; 3) aquatic-terrestrial connections; 4) development of monitoring and evaluation protocols; and 5) species and habitats at risk. The goal of the research strategy is to provide ideas for integrating emerging scientific understanding into future management in order to restore and maintain long-term ecosystem health and ecological integrity; provide consistent management direction over broad spatial and temporal scales; emphasize adaptive management over the long term; restore and maintain habitats for plant and animal species; and support economic and social needs of people, without compromising the above goals. Research questions are prioritized into three categories based on the immediacy of their need, feasibility of addressing the question rigorously under varying funding budgets, and magnitude of risk posed by not addressing the issue. The research strategy is intended to support and integrate with existing management efforts and strategies. As such, it melds observational studies with experimental manipulation, treating management actions as experiments whenever feasible. The research strategy focuses on disturbance processes and events that have been the primary drivers of change, to provide a predictive model for future changes. These drivers include fire, nonnative plants, herbivory, roads and associated human influences, and climate change. Whereas management in the western United States has striven to move from an inefficient species-based approach to a habitat-based approach, the plan focuses on ecosystem function and ecological processes as critical measures of habitat response. Because of the large amount and contiguity of public lands in the western United States, the region presents both a compelling opportunity to implement landscape-level science and a challenge to underst

Information and Technology Report

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for the Black Fork Mohican River Basin in and near Shelby, Ohio

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses were done for selected reaches of five streams in and near Shelby, Richland County, Ohio. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, conducted these analyses on the Black Fork Mohican River and four tributaries: Seltzer Park Creek, Seltzer Park Tributary, Tuby Run, and West Branch. Drainage areas of the four stream reaches studied range from 0.51 to 60.3 square miles. The analyses included estimation of the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual-exceedance probability (AEP) flood-peak discharges using the USGS Ohio StreamStats application. Peak discharge estimates, along with cross-sectional and hydraulic structure geometries, and estimates of channel roughness coefficients were used as input to step-backwater models. The step-backwater water models were used to determine water-surface elevation profiles of four flood-peak discharges and a regulatory floodway. This study involved the installation of, and data collection at, a streamflow-gaging station (Black Fork Mohican River at Shelby, Ohio, 03129197), precipitation gage (Rain gage at Reservoir Number Two at Shelby, Ohio, 405209082393200), and seven submersible pressure transducers on six selected river reaches. Two precipitation-runoff models, one for the winter events and one for nonwinter events for the headwaters of the Black Fork Mohican River, were developed and calibrated using the data collected. With the exception of the runoff curve numbers, all other parameters used in the two precipitation-runoff models were identical. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients were 0.737, 0.899, and 0.544 for the nonwinter events and 0.850 and 0.671 for the winter events. Both of the precipitation-runoff models underestimated the total volume of water, with residual runoff ranging from -0.27 inches to -1.53 inches. The results of this study can be used to assess possible mitigation options and define flood hazard areas that will contribute to the protection of life and property. This study could also assist emergency managers, community officials, and residents in determining when flooding may occur and planning evacuation routes during a flood.

Ohio

Detection and measurement of land-surface deformation, Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties, California, 2015–18

Land-surface deformation (subsidence) caused by groundwater withdrawal is identified as an undesirable result in the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency’s Basin Management Plan and California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. In Pajaro Valley, groundwater provides nearly 90 percent of the total water supply. To aid the development of sustainable groundwater management criteria, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency, performed an analysis of land-surface deformation (subsidence and uplift) in Pajaro Valley for 2015–18, using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and continuous Global Positioning System methods. Land-surface deformation results were then compared with subsurface geology and groundwater altitudes to better understand the hydromechanical response of the coastal aquifer system. The results indicate the land surface is generally stable with only small magnitudes (less than 1 inch) of seasonal land-surface deformation (subsidence in the summer and uplift in the winter) during 2015–18. During this time, the largest magnitude of land-surface deformation was less than 2 inches of subsidence and was localized in one area just north of the city limits of Watsonville, California. Groundwater altitudes during 2015–18 demonstrated seasonal variability and annual to multi-annual increases after reaching historical lows by the mid-1990s. The small magnitudes of land-surface deformation coupled with groundwater-altitude increases in most areas indicate that the subsidence likely is largely elastic and recoverable. The Corralitos-Pajaro Valley groundwater basin contains fine-grained (clay) sediments that have the potential for permanent aquifer-system compaction and resultant land subsidence. However, groundwater altitudes throughout the Pajaro Valley have increased above historical lows, and observed increases in groundwater altitudes coincided with changes in groundwater management activities. Observed relations between groundwater management activities and groundwater altitudes indicate that management of groundwater supplies could minimize the potential for permanent land-surface deformation in Pajaro Valley.

California

The Longview/Lakeview barite deposits, southern National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (NPRA) — Potential-field models and preliminary size estimates

Longview and Lakeview are two of the larger stratiform barite deposits hosted in Mississippian Akmalik Chert in the Cutaway Basin area (Howard Pass C-3 quadrangle) of the southern National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (NPRA). Geologic studies for the South NPRA Integrated Activity Plan and Environmental Impact Statement process included an attempt to evaluate the possible size of barite resources at Longview and Lakeview by using potential-field geophysical methods (gravity and magnetics). Gravity data from 227 new stations measured by the U.S. Geological Survey, sparse regional gravity data, and new, high-resolution aeromagnetic data were forward modeled simultaneously along seven profiles perpendicular to strike and two profiles along strike of the Longview and Lakeview deposits. These models indicate details of the size and shape of the barite deposits and suggest thicknesses of 15 to 24 m, and 9 to 24 m for the Longview and Lakeview deposits, respectively. Two groups of outcrops span 1.8 km of strike length and are likely connected below the surface by barite as much as 10 m thick. Barite of significant thickness (>-5 m) is unlikely to occur north of the presently known exposures of the Longview deposit. The barite bodies have irregular (nonplanar) bases suggestive of folding; northwest-trending structures of small apparent offset cross strike at several locations. Dip of the barite is 10 to 25 degrees to the southeast. True width of the bodies (the least certain dimension) is estimated to be 160 to 200 m for Longview and 220 to 260 m for Lakeview. The two bodies contain a minimum of 4.5 million metric tons of barite and more than 38 million metric tons are possible. Grades of the barite are relatively high, with high specific gravities and low impurities. The potential for the Cutaway Basin to host economically minable quantities of barite is uncertain. Heavy-mineral concentrate samples from streams in the area, trace-element analyses, and physicalproperty measurements of bulk samples derived from trenching or drilling would be valuable for future assessment work.

Alaska

Distribution of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in conjunction with habitat and trout assemblages in creeks within the Klamath Basin, Oregon 2010–16

Bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Klamath Basin are on the southernmost border of the range of the species, where threats are most severe and where bull trout are most imperiled. In their recovery plan the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2015, https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/report/species-with-recovery-plans ) suggested that Klamath Basin bull trout are at increased risk of extirpation due to habitat fragmentation, degradation of habitat complexity, and introduction of non-native trout species that often outcompete bull trout. The goals of this study were to determine if there was a lack of connectivity between habitat areas impeding migration, habitat differences, or interference by non-native species affecting bull trout distribution in the Klamath Basin. This study examined three populations of bull trout in conjunction with a concurrent native species (redband trout [ Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdnerii ]), and a concurrent non-native species (brown trout [ Salmo trutta ]) in tributaries of the upper Sprague River within the Klamath Basin. Culverts present at the beginning of the study may have impeded migration of bull trout, but culvert upgrades made during the study appeared to eliminate the impediments to migration. The presence of non-native brown trout appeared to cause bull trout to use a smaller portion of Leonard Creek, whereas the low numbers of brown trout in the studied portion of Brownsworth Creek did not appear to interfere with the local distribution of bull trout. Downstream migration of bull trout may have been impeded if there were increased numbers of brown trout or increased temperatures in the lower portions of the creeks outside of the study area. Although habitat complexity was not examined in detail during this study, there was an attempt to enhance the habitat for bull trout by introducing large woody debris into treatment sections of the creeks. We compared bull trout numbers between the treatment sections and nearby control sections prior to and after introduction of the large woody debris. The introduction of large woody debris did not appear to enhance the use of those areas by bull trout, but the large woody debris may not have been of suitable size to enhance the habitat for bull trout.

Oregon

Preliminary geologic map of the Murrieta 7.5' quadrangle, Riverside County, California

The Murrieta quadrangle is located in the northern part of the Peninsular Ranges Province and includes parts of two structural blocks, or structural subdivisions of the province. The quadrangle is diagonally crossed by the active Elsinore fault zone, a major fault zone of the San Andreas fault system, and separates the Santa Ana Mountains block to the west from the Perris block to the east. Both blocks are relatively stable internally and within the quadrangle are characterized by the presence of widespread erosional surfaces of low relief. The Santa Ana Mountains block, in the Murrieta quadrangle, is underlain by undifferentiated, thick-layered, granular, impure quartzite and well-layered, fissile, phyllitic metamorphic rock of low metamorphic grade. Both quartzite and phyllitic rocks are Mesozoic. Unconformably overlying the metamorphic rocks are remnants of basalt flows having relatively unmodified flow surfaces. The age of the basalt is about 7-8Ma. Large shallow depressions on the surface of the larger basalt remnants form vernal ponds that contain an endemic flora. Beneath the basalt the upper part of the metamorphic rocks is deeply weathered. The weathering appears to be the same as the regional Paleocene saprolitic weathering in southern California. West of the quadrangle a variable thickness sedimentary rock, physically resembling Paleogene rocks, occurs between the basalt and metamorphic rock. Where not protected by the basalt, the weathered rock has been removed by erosion. The dominant feature on the Perris block in the Murrieta quadrangle is the south half of the Paloma Valley ring complex, part of the composite Peninsular Ranges batholith. The complex is elliptical in plan view and consists of an older ring-dike with two subsidiary short-arced dikes that were emplaced into gabbro by magmatic stoping. Small to large stoped blocks of gabbro are common within the ring-dikes. A younger ring-set of hundreds of thin pegmatite dikes occur largely within the central part of the complex. These pegmatite dikes were emplaced into a domal fracture system, apparently produced by cauldron subsidence, and include in the center of the complex, a number of flat-floored granophyre bodies. The granophyre is interpreted to be the result of pressure quenching of pegmatite magma. Along the eastern edge of the quadrangle is the western part of a large septum of medium metamorphic grade Mesozoic schist. A dissected basalt flow caps the Hogbacks northeast of Temecula, and represents remnants of a channel filling flow. Beneath the basalt is a thin deposit of stream gravel. Having an age of about 10Ma, this basalt is about 2-3Ma older than the basalt flows in the Santa Ana Mountains. The Elsinore fault zone forms a complex of pull-apart basins. The west edge of the fault zone, the Willard Fault, is marked by the high, steep eastern face of the Santa Ana Mountains. The east side of the zone, the Wildomar Fault, forms a less pronounced physiographic step. In the center of the quadrangle a major splay of the fault zone, the Murrieta Hot Springs Fault, strikes east. Branching of the fault zone causes the development of a broad alluvial valley between the Willard Fault and the Murrieta Hot Springs Fault. All but the axial part of the zone between the Willard and Wildomar Faults consist of dissected Pleistocene sedimentary units. The axial part of the zone is underlain by Holocene and latest Pleistocene sedimentary units.

California