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This is about opportunity for the private sector. It is about combining the research capabilities of Government scientists with the commercial development potential of private companies. It is, consequently, about partnerships leading to products and services to enhance the quality of life and strengthen the American economy.
For more than three decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project has compiled paleoenvironmental data with the goal of reconstructing global conditions during the warm interval in the middle of the Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch (about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago). Because this is the most recent interval of time in which climatic conditions were similar to those expected in the near future, a global reconstruction of conditions from this interval offers an imperfect yet useful representation of near future conditions. PRISM reconstructions have been used extensively as boundary conditions in general circulation model experiments aimed at better understanding Pliocene climate. They have also served as hindcasting targets when testing the ability of climate models to simulate real climates of the past, an exercise in estimating a model’s ability to accurately predict future climate. As data coverage has grown and model precision has improved, PRISM datasets have become important validation tools for pinpointing discrete areas of data-model disagreement and model-model disagreement. The Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) dataset is the best developed component of the PRISM reconstructions and is the keystone of Pliocene paleoclimate research. For the first time, we compile all data related to PRISM SST estimation. This discussion chronicles the history of PRISM SST research as it evolved, responding to advances in paleochronology and paleotemperature estimation. Paleoclimatic considerations unique to each location are illustrated, as are any new developments since the initial publication of the data.
Notable progress was made in 2007 toward the development of native fish facilities in the Lower Colorado River Basin. More than a dozen facilities are, or soon will be, online to benefit native fish. When this study began in 2005 no self-supporting communities of either bonytail or razorback sucker existed. Razorback suckers were removed from Rock Tank in 1997 and the communities at High Levee Pond had been compromised by largemouth bass in 2004. This project reversed that trend with the establishment of the Davis Cove native fish community in 2005. Bonytail and razorback sucker successfully produced young in Davis Cove in 2006. Bonytail successfully produced young in Parker Dam Pond in 2007, representing the first successful sanctuary established solely for bonytail. This past year, Three Fingers Lake received 135 large razorback suckers, and Federal and State agencies have agreed to develop a cooperative management approach dedicating a portion of that lake toward grow-out and (or) the establishment of another sanctuary. Two ponds at River's Edge Golf Course in Needles, California, were renovated in June and soon will be stocked with bonytail. Similar activities are taking place at Mohave Community College, Cerbat Cliffs Golf Course, Cibola High Levee Pond, Office Cove, Emerald Canyon Golf Course, and Bulkhead Cove. Recruitment can be expected as fish become sexually mature at these facilities. Flood-plain facilities have the potential to support 6,000 adult razorback suckers and nearly 20,000 bonytail if native fish management is aggressively pursued. This sanctuary project has assisted agencies in developing 15 native fish communities by identifying specific resource objectives for those sites, listing and prioritizing research opportunities and needs, and strategizing on management approaches through the use of resource-management plans. Such documents have been developed for Davis Cove, Cibola High Levee Pond, Parker Dam Pond, and Three Fingers Lake. We anticipate similar documents will be developed in the near future for River's Edge Golf Course Ponds, Office Cove, Emerald Canyon Golf Course Ponds, Bulkhead Cove, Mohave Community College, and Cerbat Cliffs Golf Course ponds as these facilities come on line or are developed in the future. The following report discusses the process that went into the development of these facilities. Sites were visited, assessed as to their suitability based on the control of nonnative predators, habitat suitability, conversion cost, logistics, geographical location, and willingness of landowners. They were then prioritized according to their suitability, cost, timely conversion, and willingness of landowners. Existing native fish facilities were included in this evaluation for their value in helping to determine physical and biological parameter ranges. This report describes the approaches that led to success, those leading to failure, and some of the biological, institutional, and management issues of implementing native fish sanctuary development.
The formation, transport, and resuspension of oil-particle aggregates (OPA) in freshwater environments are of much interest to oil spill responders and scientists, especially as transportation of light and heavy crude oils has substantially increased across river corridors and coasts in the Great Lakes Basin. The persistent sheening from accumulated OPA along 60 km of the Kalamazoo River in Michigan’s lower peninsula resulted in a lengthy and expensive cleanup for the 2010 Enbridge Line 6B pipeline rupture. The interaction of oil with river mineral sediment and organic matter and its long-term fate depend on the physical properties of the oil and particles as well as the environmental setting of river, its climate, morphology, currents and mixing opportunities. This research brief describes the expanded work conducted for the cleanup for the 2010 Enbridge Line 6B pipeline rupture and includes laboratory experiments of aggregate characteristics with Cold Lake Blend and a range of sediment particle sizes, addition of an OPA formation algorithm to an existing sediment contaminant transport model, and development of a simplified, particle-tracking based rapid response model of OPA formation, transport, and deposition. A description of formulas developed for mixing energy in rivers in terms of river properties is also included.
The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations. In this report, we describe and make available a set of 61 georectified aerial images of the Arctic Coastal Plain (taken from 1948 to 2010) that were obtained by the USGS to inform research objectives of the USGS CAE Initiative. Here, we describe the origins, metadata, and public availability of these images that were obtained within four main study areas on the Arctic Coastal Plain: Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Chipp River, the Colville River Delta, and locations along the Dalton Highway Corridor between the Brooks Range and Deadhorse. We also provide general descriptions of observable changes to the geomorphology of landscapes that are apparent by comparing historical and contemporary images. These landscape changes include altered river corridors, lake drying, coastal erosion, and new vegetation communities. All original and georectified images and metadata are available through the USGS Alaska Science Center Portal (search under ‘Project Name’ using title of this report) or by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov .
Efficient intensive culture of larval walleyes (Stizostedion vitreum) may soon be realized due to results of research on larval development, culture environment, preferred food organisms, and feeding techniques. Larval behavior and morphology (developmental state) can be used as indicators for appropriate handling and feeding techniques. Certain environmental conditions such as a rearing unit color that contrasts with food organisms, water temperatures of 18‐22°C, uniform lighting, and a stocking density of no more than 35,000 fish/m 3 reportedly contribute to increased growth and survival. Successful culture requires that suitable food such as cladocerans, copepods, and brine shrimp be continuously available at a high density (0.1 organism/mL). Cannibalism among walleye larvae has not been prevented but has been reduced through the use of suitable fish and food densities.
The Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) acquires, abstracts and indexes the major water resources related literature of the world, and makes information available to the water resources community and the public. A component of the Water Resources Division of the US Geological Survey, the Center maintains a searchable computerized bibliographic data base, and publishers a monthly journal of abstracts. Through its services, the Center is able to provide reliable scientific and technical information about the most recent water resources developments, as well as long-term trends and changes. WRSIC was established in 1966 by the Secretary of the Interior to further the objectives of the Water Resources Research Act of 1964--legislation that encouraged research in water resources and the prevention of needless duplication of research efforts. It was determined the WRSIC should be the national center for information on water resources, covering research reports, scientific journals, and other water resources literature of the world. WRSIC would evaluate all water resources literature, catalog selected articles, and make the information available in publications or by computer access. In this way WRSIC would increase the availability and awareness of water related scientific and technical information. (Lantz-PTT)
Land subsidence, the loss of surface elevation as a result of the removal of subsurface support, affects every state in the United States. More than 17,000 mi 2 of land in the United States has been lowered by the various processes that produce land subsidence with annual costs from resulting flooding and structural damage that exceed $125 million. It is estimated that an additional $400 million is spent nationwide in attempts to control subsidence. Common causes of land subsidence include the removal of oil, gas, and water from underground reservoirs; dissolution of limestone aquifers (sinkholes); underground mining activities; drainage of organic soils; and hydrocompaction (the initial wetting of dry soils). Overdrafting of aquifers is the major cause of areally extensive land subsidence, and as ground-water pumping increases, land subsidence also will increase. Land subsidence and its effects on engineering structures have been recognized for centuries, but it was not until this century that the processes that produce land subsidence were identified and understood. In 1928, while working with field data from a test of the Dakota Sandstone aquifer, O.E. Meinzer of the U.S. Geological Survey recognized the compressibility of aquifers. Around the same time, Karl Terzaghi, a soil scientist working at Harvard University, developed the one-dimensional consolidation theory that provided a quantitative means of predicting soil compaction resulting from the drainage of compressible soils. Thus, with the recognition of the compressibility of aquifers (Meinzer), and the development of a quantitative means of predicting soil compaction as a consequence of the reduction of intergranular pore pressure (Terzaghi), the theory of aquifer-system compaction was formed. With the widespread availability of electric power in rural areas, and the advent of the deep turbine pump, ground-water withdrawals increased dramatically throughout the country in the 1940's and 1950's. Along with this unprecedented increase in pumpage, substantial amounts of land subsidence were observed in several areas of the United States, most notably in Arizona, California, and Texas. Beginning in 1955, under the direction of Joseph Poland, the Geological Survey began the "Mechanics of Aquifers Project," which focused largely on the processes that resulted in land subsidence due to the withdrawal of ground water. This research team gained international renown as they advanced the scientific understanding of aquifer mechanics and land-subsidence theory. The results of field studies by members of this research group not only verified the validity of the application of Terzaghi's consolidation theory to compressible aquifers, but they also provided definitions, methods of quantification, and confirmation of the interrelation among hydraulic head declines, aquifer-system compaction, and land subsidence. In addition to conducting pioneering research, this group also formed a "center of expertise," providing a focal point within the Geological Survey for the dissemination of technology and scientific understanding in aquifer mechanics. However, when the "Mechanics of Aquifers Project" was phased out in 1984, the focal point for technology transfer no longer existed. Interest among various state and local agencies in land subsidence has persisted, and the Geological Survey has continued to participate in a broad spectrum of cooperative and Federally funded projects in aquifer mechanics and land subsidence. These projects are designed to identify and monitor areas with the potential for land subsidence, to conduct basic research in the processes that control land subsidence and the development of earth fissures, as well as to develop new quantitative tools to predict aquifer-system deformation. In 1989 an ad hoc "Aquifer Mechanics and Subsidence Interest Group" (referred to herein as the "Subsidence Interest Group") was formed
Beginning in 2002, there have been major waterbird die-offs every spring and fall in Lake Onalaska (Navigation Pool 7 of the Upper Mississippi River) located near La Crosse, Wisconsin. This area is part of the Upper Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge (UMR Refuge) and lies within the Mississippi Flyway, through which an estimated 40 percent of the continent's waterfowl migrate. Through the 2006 spring migration, total mortality on the UMR Refuge was estimated at 22,000 to 26,000 birds, primarily American coots (Fulica americana) and lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). Two trematodes (Sphaeridiotrema globulus and Cyathocotyle bushiensis) that use the exotic faucet snail (Bithynia tentaculata) as an intermediate host were found to infect and kill the waterbirds. The faucet snail was introduced into the United States from Europe in the late 1800s. Because Lake Onalaska is a major spring and fall stop-over area for waterfowl in the Mississippi Flyway, concerns were raised that the snail and trematodes may be spreading to other waterfowl stop-over areas on the river. Exploratory sampling for faucet snails was conducted in 2005 and 2006 in navigation Pools 4-9 (excluding Pool 5a which is located between Pools 5 and 6), 11, and 13. Infected snails were found in all the sampled pools except Pool 6. To our knowledge, these are the first records of faucet snails and associated trematodes beyond those found in Pool 7, Lake Onalaska. Waterbird die-offs are becoming a UMR Refuge-wide problem. Information obtained through research and monitoring, including the identification of the origin of infections in snails and birds and the role various environmental factors have on this process, should help guide managers to develop effective mitigation and control measures.
Elk, mule deer, pronghorn antelope, moose, and bighorn sheep are iconic animals of the American West. These hooved animals, known as ungulates, commonly travel 30–60 miles between seasonal ranges. These migrations between winter and summer ranges are vital for survival and reproduction. As habitat fragmentation continues, the conservation of ungulate migration routes has received considerable attention in the West and across the globe. For example, it is estimated that many ungulate migration routes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem have already been lost. The traditional migration routes of Wyoming ungulates are threatened by unprecedented levels of energy development and by increasing levels of rural ranchette development (including fences, structures, and roads). In the past, migration corridors have been mapped based primarily on the expert opinions of state game managers, but long-term conservation of Wyoming's ungulate migration routes requires a better understanding of migration ecology and more sophisticated management tools. Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) researchers investigated the migration of a large mule deer herd across the Dad and Wild Horse winter ranges in southwest Wyoming, where 2,000 gas wells and 1,609 kilometers of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development.
Tropical forests play a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. These ecosystems maintain the highest rates of net primary production (NPP) on Earth (Hengl et al ., 2017 ), contain c . 30% of terrestrial C stocks (Jobbagy & Jackson, 2000 ), and have some of the largest stores of fine-root biomass globally (Jackson et al ., 1996 ), as well as higher fine-root production and turnover rates compared with other biomes (Cusack et al ., 2021 ). Tropical forest responses to projected warming, altered rainfall regimes, and elevated CO 2 concentrations (IPCC, 2021 ) are likely to be different from other ecosystems because of their unique characteristics (Box 1 ), making targeted research and model development important for understanding tropical forest–climate feedbacks. There is now a critical mass of long-term global change field experiments and modeling efforts in tropical forests, yet thus far there has been little synthesis, cross-site comparison, or multi-site standardized experimentation among tropical forests to help us understand how these biomes are changing. An organized INSPIRE session at the 108 th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America set out to tackle just this. Speakers covered large-scale tropical forest field experiments and modeling efforts, with an emphasis on changes in ecosystem biogeochemistry under warming, drying, elevated atmospheric CO 2 , and changing nutrient status. In this Meeting report, we provide an overview of the large-scale global change experiments presented and highlight the main objectives and opportunities for tropical forest research that emerged, including cross-site comparisons and integration with ecosystem-scale models (Fig. 1 ).
Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and longterm economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, state, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs. Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. This report is one of a series of publications, The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters , which describes major findings of the NAWQA Project on water-quality issues of regional and national concern and provides science-based information for assessing and managing the quality of our groundwater resources. Other reports in this series focus on occurrence and distribution of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in streams and groundwater, the effects of contaminants and stream-flow alteration on the condition of aquatic communities in streams, and on the quality of groundwater from private domestic and public supply wells. Each reports builds toward a more comprehensive understanding of the quality of regional and national water resources. All NAWQA reports are available online ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ ). We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.
The Geological Survey is engaged in many different kinds of investigations in the fields of geology and hydrology. These investigations may be grouped into several broad, inter-related categories as follows: (a) Economic geology, including engineering geology (b) Regional geologic mapping, including detailed mapping and stratigraphic studies (c) Resource and topical studies (d) Ground-water studies (e) Surface-water studies (f) Quality-of-water studies (g) Field and laboratory research on geologic and hydrologic processes and principles. The Geological Survey also carries on investigations in its fields of competence for other Federal agencies that do not have the required specialized staffs or scientific facilities. Nearly all the Geological Survey's activities yield new data and principles of value in the development or application of the geologic and hydrologic sciences. The purpose of this report, which consists of 4 chapters, is to present as promptly as possible findings that have come to the fore during the fiscal year 1961 the 12 months ending June 30, 1961. The present volume, chapter A, is a synopsis of the highlights of recent findings of scientific and economic interest. Some of these findings have been published or placed on open file during the year; some are presented in chapters B, C, and D; still others have not been published previously. Only part of the scientific and economic results developed during the year can be presented in this synopsis. Readers who wish more complete or more detailed information should consult the bibliography of reports beginning on page A-156 of this volume, and the collection of short articles presented in the companion chapters as follows: Prof. Paper 424-B Articles 1 to 146 Prof. Paper 424-C Articles 147 to 292 Prof. Paper 424-D Articles 293 to 435 A list of investigations in progress in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions with the names and addresses of the project leaders is given on pages A-110 to A-155 for those interested in work in progress in various areas or on special topics. During the fiscal year 1961, the services of the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions were utilized, or supported financially in part, by the many Federal and State agencies listed on pages A-106 to A-109. The Geological Survey has also cooperated from time to time with other agencies, and some of the work described in these chapters stems from work of previous years in cooperation with agencies not shown on the list. All cooperating agencies are identified where appropriate in the individual short articles in chapters B, C, and D, and they are mentioned in connection with some of the larger programs summarized in chapter A; because of space limitations, however, their contributions are mentioned in many of the short summary paragraphs contained in chapter A.
The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.
Long period wake waves from deep draft vessels have been shown to strand small fish, particularly juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tschawytcha, in the lower Columbia River (LCR). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for maintaining the shipping channel in the LCR and recently conducted dredging operations to deepen the shipping channel from an authorized depth of 40 feet(ft) to an authorized depth of 43 ft (in areas where rapid shoaling was expected, dredging operations were used to increase the channel depth to 48 ft). A model was developed to estimate stranding probabilities for juvenile salmon under the 40- and 43-ft channel scenarios, to determine if channel deepening was going to affect wake stranding (Assessment of potential stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River under scenarios of ship traffic and channel depth: Report prepared for the Portland District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, Oregon). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funded the U.S. Geological Survey to review this model. A total of 30 review questions were provided to guide the review process, and these questions are addressed in this report. In general, we determined that the analyses by Pearson (2011) were appropriate given the data available. We did identify two areas where additional information could have been provided: (1) a more thorough description of model diagnostics and model selection would have been useful for the reader to better understand the model framework; and (2) model uncertainty should have been explicitly described and reported in the document. Stranding probability estimates between the 40- and 43-ft channel depths were minimally different under most of the scenarios that were examined by Pearson (2011), and a discussion of the effects of uncertainty given these minimal differences would have been useful. Ultimately, however, a stochastic (or simulation) model would provide the best opportunity to illustrate uncertainty within a given set of model predictions, but such an approach would require a substantial amount of additional data collection. Several review questions focused on the accuracy and precision of the model estimates, but we were unable to address these questions because of the limited data that currently exists regarding wake stranding in the LCR. Additional field studies will be required to validate findings from Pearson (2011), if concerns regarding accuracy and precision remain a priority. Although the Pearson (2011) model provided a useful examination of stranding under pre-construction and post-construction conditions, future research will be required to better understand the effects of wake stranding on juvenile salmonids throughout the entire LCR. If additional information on wake stranding is desired in the future, the following topics may be of interest: (1) spatial examination of wake stranding throughout the entire LCR; (2) additional evaluation of juvenile salmonid behavior and population dynamics; (3) assessing and integrating predicted changes in ship development; and (4) assessing and integrating predicted changes in climate on environmental factors known to cause stranding.
Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.
During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.
The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.