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USGS2008

A soil burn severity index for understanding soil-fire relations in tropical forests

Methods for evaluating the impact of fires within tropical forests are needed as fires become more frequent and human populations and demands on forests increase. Short- and long-term fire effects on soils are determined by the prefire, fire, and postfire environments. We placed these components within a fire-disturbance continuum to guide our literature synthesis and develop an integrated soil burn severity index. The soil burn severity index provides a set of indicators that reflect the range of conditions present after a fire. The index consists of seven levels, an unburned level and six other levels that describe a range of postfire soil conditions. We view this index as a tool for understanding the effects of fires on the forest floor, with the realization that as new information is gained, the index may be modified as warranted. ?? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2008.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Toxicity of 6PPD alternatives to salmonid cell lines

Stormwater runoff in urban areas introduces numerous anthropogenic chemicals into surrounding aquatic environments. One such chemical is 6PPD ( N -(1,3-Dimethylbutyl)- N ’-phenyl- p- phenylenediamine), the primary antidegradant responsible for protecting tire rubber from ozone-induced degradation and cracking. When exposed to ozone on the road surface 6PPD is transformed into the toxic transformation product 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ). This compound is highly lethal to coho salmon ( O ncorhynchus kisutch ), and 24 hour 50% lethal concentrations (LC 50 ; 41-95 ng/L) are frequently detected in urban streams during stormwater runoff events 1-5 . The highest stream concentrations of 6PPDQ and most extensive coho salmon mortality occur in high-traffic urban areas, where tire wear particles accumulate due to the frequent braking and acceleration of cars 6 . In the Seattle area, some coho salmon-bearing streams can lose over 90% of returning females prior to spawning due to 6PPDQ-containing runoff 7 . Prespawn loss of this magnitude could result in the extinction of some urban spawning populations 8 . Importantly, the lethal effects of 6PPDQ have been observed in several other salmonid species, indicating that its impact may threaten fish health for urban aquatic environments globally 9-11 . The ubiquity of 6PPD in automobile tires, high toxicity of the transformation product 6PPDQ, and prevalence of 6PPD and 6PPDQ in environmental matrices has spurred investigations into alternative rubber antiozonants to replace 6PPD that retain tire performance while reducing ecological harm. A technical memorandum provided to the legislature by the Washington State Department of Ecology summarized a list of potential 6PPD alternatives requiring further study, including several structurally similar p-phenylenediamines (PPDs) 12 . However, the structural similarity of other PPDs to 6PPD and their known production of quinone transformation products 13 raises concerns that they may elicit similar toxic effects as 6PPDQ. Currently, investigations into the toxicity of proposed PPD alternatives or their ozonated transformation products in coho salmon are limited, representing a significant data gap in evaluating whether they offer improved environmental safety over 6PPD. This project investigated the toxicity of proposed alternative rubber antiozonants in vitro using immortalized cell lines derived from three salmonid species with known differences in sensitivity to 6PPDQ (coho salmon, Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), rainbow trout ( O. mykiss )) 1 . These immortalized cell lines replicate toxic responses observed in in vivo studies, while enabling higher-throughput testing and reducing the need for animal use and other resource-intensive procedures. The antiozonants and their transformation products selected for testing were chosen based on multiple criteria, including their inclusion in the Ecology technical memorandum, structural substitutions (e.g., branched/cyclic alkyl vs aryl substitutions), commercial availability, and input from the Washington State Department of Ecology and other industry experts.

Report↗

USGS1995

Seabirds in Alaska

About 100 million seabirds reside in marine waters of Alaska during some part of the year. Perhaps half this population is composed of 50 species of nonbreeding residents, visitors, and breeding species that use marine habitats only seasonally (Gould et al. 1982). Another 30 species include 40-60 million individuals that breed in Alaska and spend most of their lives in U.S. territorial waters (Sowls et al. 1978). Alaskan populations account for more than 95% of the breeding seabirds in the continental United States, and eight species nest nowhere else in North America (USFWS 1992). Seabird nest sites include rock ledges, open ground, underground burrows, and crevices in cliffs or talus. Seabirds take a variety of prey from the ocean, including krill, small fish, and squid. Suitable nest sites and oceanic prey are the most important factors controlling the natural distribution and abundance of seabirds. The impetus for seabird monitoring is based partly on public concern for the welfare of these birds, which are affected by a variety of human activities like oil pollution and commercial fishing. Equally important is the role seabirds serve as indicators of ecological change in the marine environment. Seabirds are long-lived and slow to mature, so parameters such as breeding success, diet, or survival rates often give earlier signals of changing environmental conditions that population size itself. Seabird survival data are of interest because they reflect conditions affecting seabirds in the nonbreeding season, when most annual mortality occurs. Techniques for monitoring seabird populations vary according to habitat types and the breeding behavior of individual species (Hatch and Hatch 1978, 1989; Byrd et al. 1983). An affordable monitoring program can include but a few of the 1,300 seabird colonies identified in Alaska, and since the mid-1970's, monitoring effotrts have emphasized a small selection of surface-feeding and diving species, primarily kittiwakes ( Rissa spp.) and murres ( Uria spp.). Little or no information on trends is available for other seabirds (Hatch 1993a). The existing monitoring program occurs largely on sites within the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, which was established primarily for the conservation of marine birds. Data are collected by refuge staff, other state and federal agencies, private organizations, university faculty, and students.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Late Pleistocene-Holocene cataclysmic eruptions at Nevado de Toluca and Jocotitlan volcanoes, central Mexico

This field guide describes a five day trip to examine deposits of Late Pleistocene-Holocene cataclysmic eruptions at Nevado de Toluca and Jocotitlan volcanoes in central Mexico. We will discuss the stratigraphy, petrology, and sedimentological characteristics of these deposits which provide insights into the eruptive history, type of volcanic activity, and transport and emplacement mechanisms of pyroclastic materials. These parameters will allow us to discuss the kinds of hazards and the risk that they pose to populations around these volcanoes. The area to be visited is tectonically complex thus we will also discuss the location of the volcanoes with respect to the tectonic environment. The first four days of the field trip will be dedicated to Nevado de Toluca Volcano (19 degrees 09'N; 99 degrees 45'W) located at 23 km. southwest of the City of Toluca, and is the fourth highest peak in the country, reaching an elevation of 4,680 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.). Nevado de Toluca is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano, composed of a central vent excavated upon the remains of older craters destroyed by former events. Bloomfield and Valastro, (1974, 1977) concluded that the last cycle of activity occurred nearly equal 11,600 yr. ago. For this reason Nevado de Toluca has been considered an extinct volcano. Our studies, however, indicate that Nevado de Toluca has had at least two episodes of cone destruction by sector collapse as well as several explosive episodes including plinian eruptions and dome-destruction events. These eruptions occurred during the Pleistocene but a very young eruption characterized by surge and ash flows occurred ca. 3,300 yr. BP. This new knowledge of the volcano's eruptive history makes the evaluation of its present state of activity and the geological hazards necessary. This is important because the area is densely populated and large cities such as Toluca and Mexico are located in its proximity.

Brigham Young University Geology Studies↗

USGS2016

Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration

The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al. 2015 ). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor ( 1972 ). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon ( 1963 ), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2023

Assembling the right pieces: Developing an interdisciplinary team to study disease, decline, and recovery of a world-class Smallmouth Bass fishery

Managing and understanding fisheries dynamics are becoming more complex as new and seemingly more complicated environmental factors are identified. Often management requires resources beyond that of any one entity and calls for collaboration among partners with differing priorities and backgrounds to account for the complexity of factors influencing fisheries. We present a collaborative case study from the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, where Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu have faced population declines, mortality events, and notable signs of disease in recent years. Collaboration was required to study many facets of the fishery and the environment simultaneously to better understand risk factors and underlying relationships influencing Smallmouth Bass health. The outcomes from this interdisciplinary collaboration allowed for identification of contributing risk factors, led to the development of products and analytical techniques that were mutually beneficial to all partners involved, and provided knowledge that was integrated into fish health and fisheries management.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2019

Health and disease treatment in captive and reintroduced Whooping Cranes

The principles and applications of medicine in Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) are similar to that for other crane species, though the necessity of managing Whooping Crane health across the captive, reintroduced, and remnant populations poses particular challenges. In this chapter, we review the important aspects of crane medicine relevant to managing Whooping Cranes in captive and reintroduced environments. We pay special attention to viral, parasitic, fungal, and bacterial diseases that are important to manage for reintroduction efforts to be successful. We also introduce some common aspects of treatment and surgery. Anesthesia is important for successful surgery and is discussed. Radio transmitter implant surgery, as it applies to studying causes of mortality in wild Whooping Crane chicks, is included as a subject of special interest to recovery efforts. Orthopedic problems, which pose a major challenge to the healthy development of young, captive-reared cranes, are discussed. Treatment and vaccination recommendations are made to aid in producing healthy Whooping Cranes for reintroduction to the wild. The literature about crane medicine is reviewed along with the personal insights of the three authors, and an overview of the development of crane medicine programs is included.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS1994

Bald eagle nest site characteristics in South Florida

Florida had nearly 20% of the coterminous United States population of nesting bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in 1990 (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv. 1991), yet the nesting ecology of bald eagles in subtropical environments has not been investigated. We examined nest site selection (n = 156 sites) by bald eagles in Florida Bay, Florida, from 1959 to 1990. Black ( Avicennia germinans ) and red mangroves ( Rhizophora mangle ) were used as nest trees almost exclusively (96.9%), and more than half were snags. Eagles also built nests on the ground (n = 3) and raised young on the ground after nests collapsed (n = 5). Eagles preferred (P < 0.05) higher keys (grass, hardwood-buttonwood [ Conocarpus erecta ]) over low-lying keys (mangrove, marsh) for nesting. Management strategies should include the preservation of live and dead mangroves and large, undisturbed keys as potential nesting sites for bald eagles in the subtropical portion of the eagle's range.

Florida↗

USGS2000

Archive of water gun subbottom data collected during USGS cruise SEAX 96004, New York Bight, 1 May - 9 June 1996

Beginning in 1995, the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), New York District, began a program to generate reconnaissance maps of the sea floor offshore of the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area, one of the most populated coastal regions of the United States. The goal of this mapping program is to provide a regional synthesis of the sea-floor environment, including a description of sedimentary environments, sediment texture, seafloor morphology, and geologic history to aid in understanding the impacts of anthropogenic activities, such as ocean dumping. This mapping effort differs from previous studies of this area by obtaining digital, sidescan sonar images that cover 100 percent of the sea floor. This investigation was motivated by the need to develop an environmentally acceptable solution for the disposal of dredged material from the New York - New Jersey Port, by the need to identify potential sources of sand for renourishment of the southern shore of Long island, and by the opportunity to develop a better understanding of the transport and long-term fate of contaminants by investigations of the present distribution of materials discharged into the New York Bight over the last 100+ years (Schwab and others, 1997). Data collected in 1996, USGS cruise SEAX 96004, augments data collected in 1995 with sidescan sonar and seismic reflection data collected within the New York Bight Apex region. This report is an archive of the water gun seismic reflection data collected in 1996.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

Archive of water gun subbottom data collected during USGS cruise SEAX 95007 New York Bight, 7-25, May 1995

New Jersey, New York↗

USGS1999

Archive of 15 cubic inch water gun data collected during USGS Cruise ALPH98013, New York Bight, 10-22, September, 1998

Background This CD-ROM contains copies of the navigation and field water gun subbottom data collected aboard the F/V Alpha & Omega II. The USGS Cruise ALPH98013 was conducted from 10-22 September, 1998, and is a collaborative involving the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District and the United States Geological SurveyCoastal and Marine Geology Program, Woods Hole Field Center. In 1995, the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), New York District, began a program to generate reconnaissance maps of the sea floor offshore of the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area, one of the most populated coastal regions of the United States. The goal of this mapping program is to provide a regional synthesis of the sea-floor environment, including a description of sedimentary environments, sediment texture, sea-floor morphology, and geologic history to aid in understanding the impacts of anthropogenic activities, such as ocean dumping. This mapping effort differs from previous studies of this area by obtaining digital, sidescan sonar images that cover 100 percent of the sea floor. This investigation was motivated by the need to develop an environmentally acceptable solution for the disposal of dredged material from the New York - New Jersey Port, by the need to identify potential sources of sand for renourishment of the southern shore of Long island, and by the opportunity to develop a better understanding of the transport and long-term fate of contaminants by investigations of the present distribution of materials discharged into the New York Bight over the last 100+ years (Schwab and others, 1997). Sidescan-sonar data collected during USGS Cruises Seax95007 and Seax96004 (May 1995 and May 1996, respectively) were digitally mosaicked to provide a base suitable for use in Geographic Information Systems of the New York Bight Apex region. During USGS Cruise Alph98013, supplemental sidescan sonar and seismic reflection data were collected within the New York Bight Apex region, primarily to augment the seismic reflection portion of the mapping project. Additional sidescan sonar and seismic reflection data were collected east of the Seax95007 and Seax96004 survey areas. These data abut sidescan sonar and seismic reflection data collected off the Southern Long Island shoreline during USGS Cruises Dian96040, Dian97011, and Dian97032 (September 1996, May 1997, October 1997, respectively).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

A review of plague persistence with special emphasis on fleas

Sylvatic plague is highly prevalent during infrequent epizootics that ravage the landscape of western North America. During these periods, plague dissemination is very efficient. Epizootics end when rodent and flea populations are decimated and vectored transmission declines. A second phase (enzootic plague) ensues when plague is difficult to detect from fleas, hosts or the environment, and presents less of a threat to public health. Recently, researchers have hypothesized that the bacterium (Yersinia pestis) responsible for plague maintains a continuous state of high virulence and thus only changes in transmission efficiency explain the shift between alternating enzootic and epizootic phases. However, if virulent transmission becomes too inefficient, strong selection might favor an alternate survival strategy. Another plausible non-exclusive hypothesis, best supported from Asian field studies, is that Y. pestis persists (locally) at foci by maintaining a more benign relationship within adapted rodents during the long expanses of time between outbreaks. From this vantage, it can revert to the epizootic (transmission efficient) form. Similarly, in the United States (US), enzootic plague persistence has been proposed to develop sequestered within New World rodent carriers. However, the absence of clear support for rodent carriers in North America has encouraged a broader search for alternative explanations. A telluric plague existence has been proposed. However, the availability of flea life stages and their hosts could critically supplement environmental plague sources, or fleas might directly represent a lowlevel plague reservoir. Here, we note a potentially pivotal role for fleas. These epizootic plague vectors should be closely studied with newer more exacting methods to determine their potential to serve as participants in or accomplices to a plague persistence reservoir.

Journal of Vector Borne Diseases↗

USGS2023

Does coat colour influence survival? A test in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares

Some mammal species inhabiting high-latitude biomes have evolved a seasonal moulting pattern that improves camouflage via white coats in winter and brown coats in summer. In many high-latitude and high-altitude areas, the duration and depth of snow cover has been substantially reduced in the last five decades. This reduction in depth and duration of snow cover may create a mismatch between coat colour and colour of the background environment, and potentially reduce the survival rate of species that depend on crypsis. We used long-term (1977–2020) field data and capture–mark–recapture models to test the hypothesis that whiteness of the coat influences winter apparent survival in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) at Kluane, Yukon, Canada. Whiteness of the snowshoe hare coat in autumn declined during this study, and snowshoe hares with a greater proportion of whiteness in their coats in autumn survived better during winter. However, whiteness of the coat in spring did not affect subsequent summer survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of coat colour change in autumn can reduce overwinter survival. Because declines in cyclic snowshoe hare populations are strongly affected by low winter survival, the timing of coat colour change may adversely affect snowshoe hare population dynamics as climate change continues.

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Ser B.↗

USGS2001

Biology and conservation of the common murre in California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia: Vol. 1, Natural history and population trends

Over the past 30 years, the common murre ( Uria aalge californica ) has been recognized as a prominent indicator of marine conservation issues in California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, especially regarding oil pollution, certain fisheries, and human disturbance. To assist the effective management of the common murre and the marine environments in which they live, this summary of available information on the biology and regional status of the common murre has been sponsored by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Division of Migratory Bird Management). In Volume 1 (Chapter 1), the natural history of the common murre is summarized, drawing heavily on breeding studies from the South Farallon Islands, California, plus a host of detailed breeding studies from the North Atlantic Ocean. Population trends of the common murre are summarized in Volume 1 (Chapter 2), focusing on changes in whole-colony counts determined from aerial photographs between the late 1970s and 1995 in California, Oregon and Washington. Historical data and human impacts to murre colonies since the early nineteenth century are also summarized. Volume 2 will summarize population threats, conservation, and management. Information presented in Volume 1 has been obtained and recorded by a large number of researchers and natural historians over two centuries. From the 1960s to 1995, most work in California, Oregon, and Washington was sponsored by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Minerals Management Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Important breeding biology studies were conducted at the South Farallon Islands (Farallon National Wildlife Refuge) by the Point Reyes Bird Observatory, in coordination with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge). Colony surveys in California were conducted mainly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge), U.S. Geological Survey (Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station), Humboldt State University, and University of California (Santa Cruz). Colony surveys in Oregon and Washington were conducted mainly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge and Washington Maritime National Wildlife Refuges). In British Columbia, most work from the 1960s to 1995 was sponsored and conducted by the Canadian Wildlife Service and Royal British Columbia Museum.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2019

Estimating sightability of greater sage-grouse at leks using an aerial infrared system and N-mixture models

Counts of grouse present at leks (breeding grounds) during spring are widely used to monitor population numbers and assess trends. However, only a proportion of birds available to count are detected resulting in a biased population index. We designed a study using an aerial integrated infrared imaging system (AIRIS) and experimental pseudo-leks to quantify sightability (proportion of birds detected) of conventional ground-based visual (GBV) surveys for greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus . Specifically, we calibrated AIRIS at pseudo-leks composed of known numbers of captively-raised birds, primarily ring-necked pheasant Phasianus colchicus . We then carried out AIRIS and GBV surveys, simultaneously, on nearby sage-grouse leks, allowing us to model AIRIS and GBV sightability. AIRIS detected ∼93% of birds on pseudo-leks while GBV detected ∼86% of sage-grouse on leks. Thus, the ground count observation error was –14% from the ‘true' number of male sage-grouse attending the leks. We also found sagebrush cover decreased sightability for GBV counts but did not influence sightability by AIRIS. Because standard GBV protocols typically make repeated counts of sage-grouse in a single morning, we also modeled repeated GBV counts using N -mixture models and found an 88% sightability, which was nearly the same as GBV sightability from the AIRIS analysis. This suggests that the use of repeated morning counts can potentially account for imperfect detection in the standard GBV surveys currently implemented. We also provide generalized correction values that could be employed by resource managers using either GBV or AIRIS to better estimate ‘true’ numbers of sage-grouse attending leks within similar environments to this study. The findings and interpretation presented can help guide effective monitoring protocols that account for observation error and improve accuracy of data used for population trend and abundance estimation.

California, Idaho, Nevada↗

USGS2020

Development of a two-stage life cycle model for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington

Recovery of salmon populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin depends on trap-and-haul efforts owing to impassable dams. Therefore, successful recovery depends on the collection of out-migrating juvenile salmon at Cowlitz Falls Dam (CFD) for transport below downstream dams, as well as the collection of adults for transport upstream from the dams. Tacoma Power began downstream fish collection efforts at CFD in the mid-1990s and has been working consistently since then to improve collection efficiency to support self-sustaining salmon and steelhead ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Although much work has focused on estimating fish collection efficiency (FCE), there has been relatively little focus on modeling population dynamics to understand how fish collection efficiency and other factors drive production of both juvenile and adult salmon over their life cycle. As a first step towards understanding the factors affecting population dynamics of Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, we developed a statistical life cycle model using adult escapement and age structure data, juvenile collection data, and juvenile fish collection efficiency estimates. The goal of the statistical life cycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: the freshwater production from escapement of adults upstream from CFD to collection of juveniles at CFD, and the juvenile-to-adult survival from the time of collection at the dam to the return of adults. To structure the life cycle model, we used the Ricker stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of parent spawners. This approach allowed us to account for density dependence at high spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. We then expressed productivity as a function two key variables affecting the number of juveniles collected and transported at CFD: (1) annual FCE, and (2) the annual number of days that spill occurred at CFD from September 1 to April 30. Our key findings were as follows: FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon upstream from CFD because FCE affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration; Juvenile-to-adult return (JAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 3.6 percent and ranging as high as 9.1 percent, suggesting that adult coho salmon may be able to return to CFD at sustainable population sizes; and Much variation in the estimates of juvenile fish production upriver of CFD was unexplained even after adult escapement and FCE were accounted for, suggesting that the model may be improved by exploring different covariates and model structures for juvenile production as well as JAR rates. Additionally, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 108.4 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river compared to the ocean environment and fish life stages, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at CFD may have on the recovery and sustainability of coho salmon populations.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Twenty-nine years of population dynamics in a small-bodied montane amphibian

Identifying population declines before they reach crisis proportions is imperative given the current global decline in vertebrate fauna and associated challenges and expense of recovery. Understanding life histories and how the environment influences demography are critical aspects of this challenge, as is determining the biological relevance of covariates that are best supported by the data. We used 29 yr of data on chorus frogs at two sites to estimate demographic parameters, examine life history, assess weather‐related covariates, and determine the magnitude of process variation in target parameters. Average estimates of survival probabilities were 0.51 (Standard Error [SE] = 0.04) and 0.43 (SE = 0.04), and average estimates of recruitment probabilities were 0.64 (SE = 0.07) and 0.44 (SE = 0.04). Process variation accounted for ≥76% of the total temporal variation in both parameters at one pond and in survival probability alone at the other, suggesting that the covariates in our top models were explaining predominantly process rather than sampling variation. Estimates of population growth rates indicated a declining population at one pond (i.e., negative population growth rates in 15 of 18 yr), and comparisons with historical estimates suggested declines in survival probability at the other. The amount of deviance explained was low, providing little support for the influence of covariates on target parameters, despite model selection support. Synthesis and applications: This analysis illustrates the value of disentangling components of variance when assessing demographic drivers and highlights the need for adequate demographic information in assigning conservation labels.

Ecosphere↗