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Evolution of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes

Everything responds to pressure, even rocks. Deformation studies involve measuring and interpreting the changes in elevations and horizontal positions of the land surface or sea floor. These studies are variously referred to as geodetic changes or ground-surface deformations and are sometimes indexed under the general heading of geodesy. Deformation studies have been particularly useful on active volcanoes and in active tectonic areas. A great amount of time and energy has been spent on measuring geodetic changes on Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes in Hawai`i. These changes include the build-up of the surface by the piling up and ponding of lava flows, the changes in the surface caused by erosion, and the uplift, subsidence, and horizontal displacements of the surface caused by internal processes acting beneath the surface. It is these latter changes that are the principal concern of this review. A complete and objective review of deformation studies on active Hawaiian volcanoes would take many volumes. Instead, we attempt to follow the evolution of the most significant observations and interpretations in a roughly chronological way. It is correct to say that this is a subjective review. We have spent years measuring and recording deformation changes on these great volcanoes and more years trying to understand what makes these changes occur. We attempt to make this a balanced as well as a subjective review; the references are also selective rather than exhaustive. Geodetic changes caused by internal geologic processes vary in magnitude from the nearly infinitesimal - one micron or less, to the very large - hundreds of meters. Their apparent causes also are varied and include changes in material properties and composition, atmospheric pressure, tidal stress, thermal stress, subsurface-fluid pressure (including magma pressure, magma intrusion, or magma removal), gravity, and tectonic stress. Deformation is measured in units of strain or displacement. For example, tilt of the ground surface on the rim of Kilauea Caldera is measured in microradians, a strain unit that gives the change in angle from some reference. The direction in which the tilt is measured must be defined - north or south, or some direction normal to the maximum changes. For displacements related to surface faulting, the changes are normally given in linear measures of offset. Changes in the diameter of a caldera can be given in either displacements or strain units. In the later case, the displacement divided by the 'original' diameter gives the strain ratio. Strains are dimensionless numbers; displacements have the dimensions of length. Vectors commonly are used to show the direction and amount of displacements in plan view. Strain results from stress. It can be elastic strain, when the strain is linearly related to stress and is recoverable; it can be viscous strain, where the rate of strain is proportional to the stress and is not recoverable; or it can be plastic strain that is often some complex stress-strain relationship, for example, elastic up to some yield strength and viscous beyond. Volcanic rocks are brittle when cold and under near-surface pressures but plastic to viscous under higher temperature and pressure regimes. It is important in deformation studies to try to define the nature of the strain and the rheology of the rocks being deformed. A good text on rheology is 'The Structure and Rheology of Complex Fluids' by R.G. Larson, 1999. Under changing tensional or compressional stresses, tiny cracks in brittle rocks may open or close, causing a quasielastic strain response. If the stresses exceed the breaking strength of the rock, brittle failure occurs, and the stress-strain relationship breaks down.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water quality and hydrology of the Silver River Watershed, Baraga County, Michigan, 2005-08

The Silver River Watershed comprises about 69 square miles and drains part of northeastern Baraga County, Michigan. For generations, tribal members of the Keweenaw Bay Indian Community have hunted and fished in the watershed. Tribal government and members of Keweenaw Bay Indian Community are concerned about the effect of any development within the watershed, which is rural, isolated, and lightly populated. For decades, the area has been explored for various minerals. Since 2004, several mineral-exploration firms have been actively investigating areas within the watershed; property acquisition, road construction, and subsurface drilling have taken place close to tributary streams of the Silver River. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Keweenaw Bay Indian Community, conducted a multi-year water-resources investigation of the Silver River Watershed during 2005-08. Methods of investigation included analyses of streamflow, water-quality sampling, and ecology at eight discrete sites located throughout the watershed. In addition, three continuous-record streamgages located within the watershed provided stage, discharge, specific conductance, and water-temperature data on an hourly basis. Water quality of the Silver River Watershed is typical of many streams in undeveloped areas of Upper Michigan. Concentrations of most analytes typically were low, although several exceeded applicable surface-water-quality standards. Seven samples had concentrations of copper that exceeded the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality standards for wildlife, and one sample had concentrations of cyanide that exceeded the same standards. Concentrations of total mercury at all eight sampling sites exceeded the Great Lakes Basin water-quality standard, but the ratio of methylmercury to total mercury was similar to the 5 to 10 percent found in most natural waters. Concentrations of arsenic and chromium in bed sediments were near the threshold-effect concentration. A qualitative ecological assessment of fishes and macroinvertebrates showed that intolerant salmonids were present at most sampled sites, and macroinvertebrate communities were indicative of near-excellent or excellent conditions at all eight sites. This baseline information will aid in an ongoing monitoring effort designed to protect the water resources of the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2019

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Fish Community Goals and Objectives for Lake Erie (Ryan et al. 2003). This report is responsive to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) obligations via Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Great Lakes Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies in 2019 were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations of this agreement were sustained investigations of native percids, forage (prey) fish populations, and Lake Trout. Our 2019 deepwater program operations began in April and concluded in December, and utilized trawl, gillnet, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 88 bottom trawls covering 65 ha of lake-bottom and catching 24,140 fish totaling 3,622 kg during three separate trawl surveys in the West and Central basins of Lake Erie. Overnight gillnet sets (n=44) for cold water species were performed at 42 unique locations in the West and East basins of Lake Erie. A total of 8.0 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 286 fish, 114 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. USGS hydroacoustic surveys in 2019 produced 240 km of transects, and lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=21) and water quality profiles (n=21) to populate a database maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), Ohio Division of Natural Resources (ODNR), Michigan Division of Natural Resources (MDNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of the Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) throughout all three Lake Erie sub-basins, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. In 2019, Lake Trout investigations included annual gill net surveys and acoustic telemetry of spawning migration and habitat use in coordination with OMNRF, NYSDEC, and PFBC. Results from Lake Trout investigations were reported in the Coldwater Task Group annual report to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and the CLC (Coldwater Task Group 2020). Likewise, interagency forage fish assessments conducted with hydroacoustics were summarized and reported in the Forage Task Group annual report (Forage Task Group 2020). This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2019 during June and September. The survey design provided temporal and spatial coverage that did not exist in the historic interagency trawl database, and thus complemented the August ODNR-OMNRF effort to reinforce stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in: total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity and community structure. Data from this effort can be explored interactively online (https://lebs.shinyapps.io/western-basin/), and are accessible for download (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LL6YOR, Keretz et al. 2020). Annual survey data are added to these sources as the data become available.

Lake Erie↗

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Detection of prions from spiked and free-ranging carnivore feces

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a highly contagious, fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by infectious prions (PrP CWD ) affecting wild and captive cervids. Although experimental feeding studies have demonstrated prions in feces of crows ( Corvus brachyrhynchos ), coyotes ( Canis latrans ), and cougars ( Puma concolor ), the role of scavengers and predators in CWD epidemiology remains poorly understood. Here we applied the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay to detect PrP CWD in feces from cervid consumers, to advance surveillance approaches, which could be used to improve disease research and adaptive management of CWD. We assessed recovery and detection of PrP CWD by experimental spiking of PrP CWD into carnivore feces from 9 species sourced from CWD-free populations or captive facilities. We then applied this technique to detect PrP CWD from feces of predators and scavengers in free-ranging populations. Our results demonstrate that spiked PrP CWD is detectable from feces of free-ranging mammalian and avian carnivores using RT-QuIC. Results show that PrP CWD acquired in natural settings is detectable in feces from free-ranging carnivores, and that PrP CWD rates of detection in carnivore feces reflect relative prevalence estimates observed in the corresponding cervid populations. This study adapts an important diagnostic tool for CWD, allowing investigation of the epidemiology of CWD at the community-level.

Scientific Reports↗

Evaluation of machine learning approaches for predicting streamflow metrics across the conterminous United States

Few regional or national scale studies have evaluated machine learning approaches for predicting streamflow metrics at ungaged locations. Most such studies are limited by the number of dimensions of the streamflow regime investigated. This study, in contrast, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow regime based on three widely available machine learning approaches (support vector regression, random forest, and cubist regression) and on multiple linear regression to predict 106 natural streamflow metrics at ungaged locations. This evaluation is done for 545 streamgages across the northwest United States for recurrence-interval flood metrics and for 1,851 sites in the conterminous United States for non-flood metrics. The results indicate that for flood metrics, predictions by cubist regression and support vector regressions have substantially less error than the other approaches. For all the remaining streamflow metrics, random forest models outperform the other methods.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗

Numerical modeling of circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation in Long Island, New York

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

New York↗

Multibeam data and socio-economic issues in west-central San Francisco Bay

San Francisco Bay is the largest estuary on the conterminous U.S. Pacific Coast and is one of the world's largest natural harbors. It is a biologically productive and diverse environment. San Francisco Bay has a maritime economy that annually generates over $7.5 billion, handles 50 million tons of cargo, and involves thousands of jobs. Recent investigations by the USGS in this estuary help address both socio-economic and scientific issues: *Trimming pinnacles may prevent a calamitous oil spill. *Can San Francisco Bay accept more dredge spoil? *Bay floor biological habitats are quite varied. *How thick and how variable is the sediment fill in central San Francisco Bay?

California↗

Middle Mississippi River decision support system: user's manual

This user's manual describes the Middle Mississippi River Decision Support System (MMRDSS) and gives detailed examples on its use. The MMRDSS provides a framework to assist decision makers regarding natural resource issues in the Middle Mississippi River floodplain. The MMRDSS is designed to provide users with a spatially explicit tool for tasks, such as inventorying existing knowledge, developing models to investigate the potential effects of management decisions, generating hypotheses to advance scientific understanding, and developing scientifically defensible studies and monitoring. The MMRDSS also includes advanced tools to assist users in evaluating differences in complexity, connectivity, and structure of aquatic habitats among river reaches. The Environmental Systems Research Institute ArcView 3.x platform was used to create and package the data and tools of the MMRDSS.

Techniques and Methods↗

Generalized potentiometric surface of the Arikaree aquifer, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and Bennett County, South Dakota

INTRODUCTION The Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and Bennett County are located in southwest South Dakota. The Pine Ridge Indian Reservation includes all of Shannon County and the part of Jackson County south of the White River. Extensive Indian trust lands are in Bennett County. For purposes of this map, the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and all of Bennett County are included in the study area (sheet 1). Ground water from wells and springs is the predominant source of public and domestic supply within the study area. The Arikaree aquifer is the largest source of ground water throughout this area. The Oglala Sioux Tribe is developing a ground-water management plan designed to “preserve, protect and maintain the quality of ground water for living and future members and non-members of the Oglala Sioux Indian Tribe within the internal and external boundaries of the Pine Ridge Reservation” (Michael Catches Enemy, Oglala Sioux Tribe Natural Resources Regulatory Agency, oral commun., 2007). Hydrologic information about the Arikaree aquifer is important to managing this resource. In 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began working in cooperation with the Oglala Sioux Tribe to develop a potentiometric map of the Arikaree aquifer in Jackson and Shannon Counties, with a primary component of that effort being a well inventory in those counties. In 2003, the study area was expanded to include Bennett County.

South Dakota↗

Background and geologic model for the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in the Norphlet Formation, U.S. Gulf Coast

The Upper Jurassic Norphlet Formation is a stratigraphic unit located in the subsurface of the United States Gulf coastal plain and offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). The Norphlet consists of clastic sediments derived from the southern Appalachian highlands, and was deposited in a continental dryland setting on the margins of the early Gulf of America rift basin. The formation contains a variety of sedimentary facies, including facies representing updip alluvial fans, wadis, red beds, and a widespread erg, or eolian sand sea. The erg facies form the primary reservoirs from which hydrocarbons sourced from the overlying Smackover Formation are produced. Development of the Norphlet began in earnest in the late 1960s, with new discoveries, including large fields at Flomaton, Hatters Pond, and Mobile Bay, continuing through the 2000s–2010s with the discovery of major oil fields in the offshore Desoto Canyon area. Onshore, Norphlet hydrocarbon traps typically are faulted salt anticlines, although many fields also have a stratigraphic trapping component because of the preservation of dune-scale bedforms. Thermal maturity across the Norphlet play varies significantly with depth, resulting in oil production transitioning downdip to natural gas liquids production, then dry gas production; production depths reach to greater than 21,000 feet. A 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment divided the Norphlet into four conventional assessment units defined by the type and frequency of trapping mechanisms, sedimentology, and thermal maturity of each area, with little potential for hydrocarbon development observed west of the Mississippi River. Although petroleum resources in the Norphlet were revised downward, it is probable that significant resources remain to be discovered.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi↗

Transmissivity estimated from brief aquifer tests of domestic wells and compared with bedrock lithofacies and position on hillsides in the Appalachian Plateau of New York

Procedures for undertaking and analyzing recovery from aquifer tests of 13 to 132 seconds (described in reports cited herein) were applied to 51 domestic drilled wells that penetrated bedrock outside major valleys in the part of the Appalachian Plateau of New York drained by the Susquehanna River. Transmissivities calculated from these tests ranged over three orders of magnitude in both the Catskill-Cattaraugus lithofacies (shales, mudstones, siltstones, medium to coarse sandstones, pebbly sandstones) and the Chemung-Hamilton lithofacies (shales, mudstones, siltstones, fine to medium sandstones). Median transmissivity values were 0.000425 foot squared per second (36.7 feet squared per day) in the Catskill-Cattaraugus lithofacies and 0.00055 foot squared per second (47.5 feet squared per day) in the Chemung-Hamilton lithofacies. The distributions of transmissivity values within the two lithofacies were likewise similar. The range and median values of transmissivity were also nearly the same on lower and midlevel hillsides and were only slightly greater on a few upper hillsides. Transmissivities estimated from such easily arranged and analyzed tests may be appropriate for estimating groundwater flux under the small gradients that prevail under natural conditions, but not under larger drawdowns and steeper gradients near clusters of domestic wells. Four of the 51 wells tested were also pumped for 10 to 32 minutes; analysis by the Theis recovery method yielded transmissivities consistent with the brief tests for 2 wells, but 7 to 9 times smaller for 2 wells. Transmissivity values estimated by the PICKINGmodel were not significantly different from values estimated by an automated application of the Picking method (PPC-Recovery) at a probability of 95 percent. Transmissivities calculated by either method from data for time intervals of 120 seconds or less may be of limited practical value because they apply only to a small volume of bedrock close to the pumped well.

New York↗

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Determining low-flow conditions at select streams to Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor as the first step towards the development of ecological-flow targets

Maintaining streamflow to support human water needs and ecosystem services requires a fundamental understanding of the relations between changes in streamflow processes and ecosystem responses. Changes in the natural patterns in flow, geology, and topography alter the habitats that aquatic organisms rely on for food, shelter, and reproduction. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented an ecological-flow framework that encapsulates the basic principles of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) to compare the relations between hydrologic metrics and stream conditions and estimate ecological flow needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed. As a first step in the ELOHA process, streamflow from two historical time periods (occurring between 1933 and 1988) was compared to streamflow for a recent time period (from 2004-2020) for four major streams in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed (North Branch Metedeconk River, Toms River, Cedar Creek, and Westecunk Creek), to evaluate if there were statistically significant differences in streamflow metrics. Analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual low-flow metrics; patterns in the streamflow record; and general land-use changes were used to develop a better understanding of flow conditions in the watershed. The comparative streamflow analysis indicated that notable changes in flow processes for the study streams occurred between the three periods of record (PORs) evaluated in this study: period of record 1 (POR1, from water years 1933–1958), period of record 2 (POR2, from water years 1974–1988), and period of record 3 (POR3, from water years 2004–2020). For example, the mean of the daily streamflow decreased between the historical POR to the current POR in Cedar Creek but increased in North Branch Metedeconk and Toms Rivers. Larger and more significant changes (p-value <0.10) occurred during specific months or were related to the variability or seasonality of flow. North Branch Metedeconk River and Toms River, the two northern and most developed sites, exhibited changes in low-flow metrics and decreases in minimum n-day moving averages. Decreases in the normalized 75th-percentile exceedance flows were evident at three of the four study sub-basins during POR2 and POR3. In comparison, there was little to no evidence of negative changes to low-flow metrics at Westecunk Creek, the southernmost and least developed site, where all low-flow duration metrics increased as well as seasonal minimum consecutive 7-day average flows. Significant increases in monthly minimums (p-value <0.05) at Cedar Creek for spring months (April, May, and June) also were observed. Natural and anthropogenic processes can alter the landscape resulting in concomitant changes in the streamflow regime. There is a need to assess these changes and synthesize the results into a scientifically defensible set of goals and standards that help support the management of environmental flows. This study represents the initial steps in building the hydrologic foundation to inform management and develop future ecological flow targets that balance water availability for human and ecosystem needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed.

New Jersey↗

Volcano Hazards Assessment for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) is a very large shield-shaped volcano located in northern California where it forms part of the southern Cascade Range of volcanoes. It has erupted hundreds of times during its half-million-year history, including nine times during the past 5,200 years, most recently 950 years ago. This record represents one of the highest eruptive frequencies among Cascade volcanoes and includes a wide variety of different types of lava flows and at least two explosive eruptions that produced widespread fallout. Compared to those of a typical Cascade stratovolcano, eruptive vents at MLV are widely distributed, extending 55 km north-south and 40 km east-west. The total area covered by MLV lavas is >2,000 km2, about 10 times the area of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Judging from its long eruptive history and its frequent eruptions in recent geologic time, MLV will erupt again. Although the probability of an eruption is very small in the next year (one chance in 3,600), the consequences of some types of possible eruptions could be severe. Furthermore, the documented episodic behavior of the volcano indicates that once it becomes active, the volcano could continue to erupt for decades, or even erupt intermittently for centuries, and very likely from multiple vents scattered across the edifice. Owing to its frequent eruptions, explosive nature, and proximity to regional infrastructure, MLV has been designated a 'high threat volcano' by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity, but with only two seismometers located high on the volcano and no other USGS monitoring equipment in place, MLV is at present among the most poorly monitored Cascade volcanoes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes based on hydrologic metrics in the conterminous United States, 1980–2014

Alteration of the natural streamflow regime by land and water management, such as land-cover change and dams, is associated with aquatic ecosystem degradation. The severity and geographic extent of streamflow alteration at regional and national scales, however, remain largely unquantified. The primary goal of this study is to characterize the severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes for 1980–2014 based on hydrologic metrics at 3,355 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States. Twelve hydrologic metrics with known relevance to aquatic ecosystem health were used to characterize the streamflow regime. Alterations to the 12 hydrologic metrics were quantified by taking ratios of the metrics calculated from observed daily streamflow records divided by the same metrics predicted for natural conditions by random forest statistical models. Some level of streamflow alteration (diminishment or inflation of hydrologic metrics) compared to natural conditions was indicated at about 80 percent of the assessed streamgages across the conterminous United States. The severity of alteration differed among ecoregions because of differences in dominant land and water management practices. Finally, when compared over the period 1980–2014, climate variability generally played a minor role in the alteration of streamflows across the United States when compared to the effects of land and water management.

Conterminous United States↗

Mineral resource assessment of selected areas in Clark and Nye Counties, Nevada

During 2004-2006, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a mineral resource assessment of selected areas administered by the Bureau of Land Management in Clark and Nye Counties, Nevada. The purpose of this study is to provide the BLM with information for land planning and management and, specifically, to determine mineral resource potential in accordance with regulations in 43 CFR 2310, which governs the withdrawal of public lands. The Clark County Conservation of Public Land and Natural Resources Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-282) temporarily withdraws a group of areas designated as Areas of Critical Environmental Concern (ACECs) from mineral entry, pending final approval of an application for permanent withdrawal by the BLM. This study provides information about mineral resource potential of the ACECs. Existing information was compiled about the ACECs, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and mineral-deposit information. Field examinations of selected areas and mineral occurrences were conducted to determine their geologic setting and mineral potential.

Nevada↗