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Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2010

This is the forty-seventh in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2009. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www. waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/ publications/GW2010.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2008 are reported in Burden and others (2009) and available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/ GW2009.pdf. Analytical results associated with water samples collected from each area of groundwater development were compared to State of Utah maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) and secondary drinking-water standards of routinely measureable substances present in water supplies. The MCLs and secondary drinking-water standards can be accessed online at http://www.rules.utah.gov/publicat/code/r309/r309-200. htm#T5. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking-water standards can be accessed at http://www.epa. gov/safewater/mcl.html#mcls. Maximum contaminant levels and secondary drinking-water standards were developed for public water systems and do not apply to the majority of wells sampled during this study. Every 5 years, this report series includes maps depicting comparisons of 30-year changes in water levels for each of the major areas of groundwater development. The water-level change maps in this report show the difference between water levels measured in 1980 and in 2010. Water-level rises or declines occurring on shorter time scales are shown in plots of annual water-level measurements for several wells in each of the major areas of groundwater development.

Utah

Estimation of Leakage Potential of Selected Sites in Interstate and Tri-State Canals Using Geostatistical Analysis of Selected Capacitively Coupled Resistivity Profiles, Western Nebraska, 2004

With increasing demands for reliable water supplies and availability estimates, groundwater flow models often are developed to enhance understanding of surface-water and groundwater systems. Specific hydraulic variables must be known or calibrated for the groundwater-flow model to accurately simulate current or future conditions. Surface geophysical surveys, along with selected test-hole information, can provide an integrated framework for quantifying hydrogeologic conditions within a defined area. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, performed a surface geophysical survey using a capacitively coupled resistivity technique to map the lithology within the top 8 meters of the near-surface for 110 kilometers of the Interstate and Tri-State Canals in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. Assuming that leakage between the surface-water and groundwater systems is affected primarily by the sediment directly underlying the canal bed, leakage potential was estimated from the simple vertical mean of inverse-model resistivity values for depth levels with geometrically increasing layer thickness with depth which resulted in mean-resistivity values biased towards the surface. This method generally produced reliable results, but an improved analysis method was needed to account for situations where confining units, composed of less permeable material, underlie units with greater permeability. In this report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, the authors use geostatistical analysis to develop the minimum-unadjusted method to compute a relative leakage potential based on the minimum resistivity value in a vertical column of the resistivity model. The minimum-unadjusted method considers the effects of homogeneous confining units. The minimum-adjusted method also is developed to incorporate the effect of local lithologic heterogeneity on water transmission. Seven sites with differing geologic contexts were selected following review of the capacitively coupled resistivity data collected in 2004. A reevaluation of these sites using the mean, minimum-unadjusted, and minimum-adjusted methods was performed to compare the different approaches for estimating leakage potential. Five of the seven sites contained underlying confining units, for which the minimum-unadjusted and minimum-adjusted methods accounted for the confining-unit effect. Estimates of overall leakage potential were lower for the minimum-unadjusted and minimum-adjusted methods than those estimated by the mean method. For most sites, the local heterogeneity adjustment procedure of the minimum-adjusted method resulted in slightly larger overall leakage-potential estimates. In contrast to the mean method, the two minimum-based methods allowed the least permeable areas to control the overall vertical permeability of the subsurface. The minimum-adjusted method refined leakage-potential estimation by additionally including local lithologic heterogeneity effects.

Scientific Investigations Report

Managing for tomorrow—A climate adaptation decision framework

Climate change presents new and compounding challenges to natural resource management. With changing climate patterns, managers are confronted with difficult decisions on how to minimize climate effects on habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations. To support climate adaptation decision making, we first conceptualized an approach that integrates the principles of the resist–accept–direct framework, climate scenario planning, and decision analysis into a general framework to support adaptation planning. This framework was implemented and refined by working with three National Wildlife Refuge System refuges within the Midwest Region. The objectives of this report are to describe the climate adaptation decision framework and provide guidance for how to apply the framework to support transparent, consistent, and decision-focused adaptation planning. We include a workbook to support the application of each step of the framework as well as lessons learned from our experiences developing the framework. The climate adaptation decision framework has wide applicability to aid adaptation planning within natural resource management and underscores the important role of engaging interest groups in climate adaptation decisions.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss

Filtering NetCDF Files by Using the EverVIEW Slice and Dice Tool

Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) is a self-describing, machine-independent file format for storing array-oriented scientific data. It was created to provide a common interface between applications and real-time meteorological and other scientific data. Over the past few years, there has been a growing movement within the community of natural resource managers in The Everglades, Fla., to use NetCDF as the standard data container for datasets based on multidimensional arrays. As a consequence, a need surfaced for additional tools to view and manipulate NetCDF datasets, specifically to filter the files by creating subsets of large NetCDF files. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) group are working to address these needs with applications like the EverVIEW Slice and Dice Tool, which allows users to filter grid-based NetCDF files, thus targeting those data most important to them. The major functions of this tool are as follows: (1) to create subsets of NetCDF files temporally, spatially, and by data value; (2) to view the NetCDF data in table form; and (3) to export the filtered data to a comma-separated value (CSV) file format. The USGS and JEM will continue to work with scientists and natural resource managers across The Everglades to solve complex restoration problems through technological advances.

Fact Sheet

Synthesis of thirty years of surface water quality and aquatic biota data in Shenandoah National Park: Collaboration between the US Geological Survey and the National Park Service

The eastern United States has been the recipient of acidic atmospheric deposition (hereinafter, “acid rain”) for many decades. Deleterious effects of acid rain on natural resources have been well documented for surface water (e.g., Likens et al. 1996; Stoddard et al. 2001), soils (Bailey et al. 2005), forest health (Long et al. 2009), and habitat suitability for stream biota (Baker et al. 1993). Shenandoah National Park (SNP) is located in northern and central Virginia and consists of a long, narrow strip of land straddling the Blue Ridge Mountains (Figure 1). The park’s elevated topography and location downwind of the Ohio River valley, where many acidic emissions to the atmosphere are generated (NSTC 2005), have made it a target for acid rain. Characterizing the link between air quality and water quality as related to acid rain, contaminants, soil conditions, and forest health is a high priority for research and monitoring in SNP. The US Geological Survey (USGS) and SNP have had a long history of collaboration on documenting acid rain effects on the park’s natural resources, starting in 1985 and continuing to the present (Lynch and Dise 1985; Rice et al. 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007; Deviney et al. 2006, 2012; Jastram et al. 2013).

Virginia

Evaluation and modification of five techniques for estimating stormwater runoff for watersheds in west-central Florida

Several traditional techniques have been used for estimating stormwater runoff from ungaged watersheds. Applying these techniques to watersheds in west-central Florida requires that some of the empirical relations be extrapolated beyond tested ranges. As a result, there is uncertainty as to the accuracy of these estimates. Sixty-six storms occurring in 15 west-central Florida watersheds were initially modeled using the Rational Method, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Regression Equations, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-1 model, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model. The techniques were applied according to the guidelines specified in the user manuals or standard engineering textbooks as though no field data were available and the selection of input parameters was not influenced by observed data. Computed estimates were compared with observed runoff to evaluate the accuracy of the techniques. One watershed was eliminated from further evaluation when it was determined that the area contributing runoff to the stream varies with the amount and intensity of rainfall. Therefore, further evaluation and modification of the input parameters were made for only 62 storms in 14 watersheds. Runoff ranged from 1.4 to 99.3 percent of rainfall. The average runoff for all watersheds included in this study was about 36 percent of rainfall. The average runoff for the urban, natural, and mixed land use watersheds was about 41, 27, and 29 percent of rainfall, respectively. Initial estimates of peak discharge using the Rational Method produced average watershed errors that ranged from an underestimation of 50.4 percent to an overestimation of 767 percent. The coefficient of runoff ranged from 0.20 to 0.60. Calibration of the technique produced average errors that ranged from an underestimation of 3.3 percent to an over estimation of 1.5 percent. The average calibrated coefficient of runoff for each watershed ranged from 0.02 to 0.72. The average values of the coefficient of runoff necessary to calibrate the urban, natural, and mixed land use watersheds were 0.39, 0.16, and 0.08, respectively. The U.S. Geological Survey regional regression equations for determining peak discharge produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 87.3 percent to an overestimation of 1,140 percent. The regression equations for determining runoff volume produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 95.6 percent to an overestimation of 324 percent. Regression equations developed from data used for this study produced errors that ranged between an underestimation of 82.8 percent and an overestimation of 328 percent for peak discharge and from an underestimation of 71.2 percent to an overestimation of 241 percent for runoff volume. Use of the equations developed for west-central Florida streams produced average errors for each type of watershed that were lower than errors associated with use of the U.S. Geological Survey regional equations. Initial estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes using the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, produced average errors of 44.6 and 42.7 percent, respectively, for all the watersheds. Curve numbers and times of concentration were adjusted to match estimated and observed peak discharges and runoff volumes. The average change in the curve number for all the watersheds was a decrease of 2.8 percent. The average change in the time of concentration was an increase of 59.2 percent. The shape of the input dimensionless unit hydrograph also had to be adjusted to match the shape and peak time of the estimated and observed flood hydrographs. Peak rate factors for the modified input dimensionless unit hydrographs ranged from 162 to 454. The mean errors for peak discharges and runoff volumes were reduced to 18.9 and 19.5 percent, respectively, using the average calibrated input parameters for each watershed. Initial estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes using the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 model, produced average errors of 105 and 26.8 percent respectively, for all the watersheds. Curve numbers and lag times were adjusted to match estimated and observed peak discharges and runoff volumes. The average change in the curve number for all the watersheds was a decrease of 2.5 percent. The average change in the lag time was an increase of 169 percent. The mean errors for peak discharges and runoff volumes were reduced to 5.8 and 1.4 percent, respectively, using the average calibrated input parameters for each watershed. The observed and estimated peak discharges and runoff volumes could be matched by adjusting curve numbers and lag time using the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 model; however, the shape of the estimated flood hydrograph and timing of the peak could not be matched. The input dimensionless unit hydrograph must also be changed to increase the accuracy of the Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 model for watersheds in west-central Florida. The source code has to be modified and recompiled to enter different dimensionless unit hydrographs into the HEC-1 program. During application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model, two separate infiltration methods were evaluated. Initial estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes produced mean errors of 46.5 and 6.8 percent, respectively, for all watersheds using the Green-Ampt infiltration method, and 48.8 and 9.5 percent, respectively, using the Horton infiltration method. The mean errors were reduced to 18 and 0.3 percent for the Green-Ampt method and 20.9 and 7.2 percent for the Horton method using the average calibrated input parameters for each watershed. Estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes were initially made for watersheds in west-central Florida using recommended procedures, then compared to observed peak discharges and runoff volumes. Subsequently, the procedures were modified to increase accuracy for this area. The same methods used during the study could be used in other parts of the world to evaluate the accuracy of standard methods for estimating stormwater runoff.

Florida

Applying recreation ecology science to sustainably manage camping impacts: A classification of camping management strategies

Wilderness and other protected natural areas such as national forests, parks, and refuges are managed to provide high-quality recreational opportunities while preserving natural resource conditions. In managing recreation visitation, land managers could allow visitors to create their own infrastructure of trails and campsites, or they could choose to apply an impact management strategy to provide an infrastructure that includes sustainably designed trails and campsites. Recreation ecology studies have repeatedly demonstrated that informal “visitor-created” trails and campsites are generally not sustainably designed or located (Cole 1981, 1982a, 2013; Marion 2016; Wimpey and Marion 2011). For example, informal trails frequently occur in flat terrain where trail widening and muddiness can be chronic problems, or are fall-aligned (perpendicular to contour lines) in sloping terrain, where they are considerably more vulnerable to soil loss and widening (Marion et al. 2016; Marion and Wimpey 2017). Similarly, visitors are highly attracted to flat terrain near water for camping, where they frequently create substantial numbers of large and unnecessary campsites at densities that threaten visitor solitude, experiential qualities, and natural resources.

International Journal of Wilderness

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2009

This is the forty-sixth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2008. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights. utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/ GW2009.pdf.

Utah

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2008

This is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2007. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2008.pdf .

Utah

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2007

This is the forty-fourth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2006. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah. gov/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/newUTAH/GW2007.pdf.

Utah

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2006

This is the forty-third in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable inter­ested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water with­drawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available. This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2005. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah. gov/techinfo/wwwpub/gw2006.pdf and http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2006.pdf.

Utah

Landscape-scale drivers of endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) presence using an ensemble modeling approach

The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation, development encroachment, and water impoundment. Starting in the past few decades, large restoration projects have been undertaken to restore the landscape, including improving conditions for threatened and imperiled taxa. One focus of restoration has been the marl prairie ecosystem, where the federally endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow ( Ammospiza maritima mirabilis ; CSSS) resides. The CSSS is endemic to the Everglades where populations have been steadily declining, signaling the importance of decision support tools for natural resource managers for evaluating water management and restoration scenarios. Here we developed an ensemble logistic regression, combining a frequentist and Bayesian approach, to model CSSS presence and measure how environmental factors such as hydrometrics, fire occurrence, and vegetation structure impact CSSS habitat suitability. This is the first analysis to quantitatively assess the interdependent relationships between a broad range of environmental factors and CSSS presence across the landscape. Our results show that the probability of CSSS presence was highest in areas with dry conditions, hydroperiods between 80 and 120 days, percentages of canopy cover and woody vegetation less than 10%, and more than six years post-fire where 75% or more of the area was burned. Because the frequentist and Bayesian models had nearly identical spatial outputs with the Bayesian model having slightly higher validation metrics, we used the Bayesian approach as our final model (EverSparrow). The results from our analysis can provide a valuable decision support tool as natural resource managers work to restore the Everglades landscape.

Florida

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example. “As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

Wyoming

Landscape ecology of plague in the American southwest, September 19-20, 2000, Fort Collins, Colorado

During September 19-20, 2000, a workshop titled "Landscape Ecology of Plague in the American Southwest" was held in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Earth Surface Processes Team and sponsored by the USGS National Wildlife Health Center. Forty scientists and natural resource managers and administrators representing 8 federal agencies, 4 state agencies, 6 universities, and other local agencies and nongovernment organizations met to discuss historical and current status of plague in the United States, current activities in plague surveillance, research, and management in wildlife, and research and information needs relative to plague control and management. Eleven individual presentations on plague history, status, and trends; diagnostic technologies; epizootiological studies and observations; and control and management strategies and studies, followed by a panel discussion on the impact of plague on wildlife and ecosystems, led the way to extensive group discussions on important plague-related questions, issues and problems. Workshop attendees participated in identifying important research and information needs relevant to control and management of plague in wildlife, and in the process, established new cooperative and collaborative partnerships and enhanced existing relationships upon which future research and information needs can be met. The proceedings from this workshop are intended to be used by the natural resource managers and researchers from the various participating agencies, research facilities, as well as other stakeholders to aid in the development of future research and information programs and funding initiatives related to both zoonotic and sylvatic plague.

American Southwest

Quantification of aquifer properties with surface nuclear magnetic resonance in the Platte River valley, central Nebraska, using a novel inversion method

Surface nuclear magnetic resonance, a noninvasive geophysical method, measures a signal directly related to the amount of water in the subsurface. This allows for low-cost quantitative estimates of hydraulic parameters. In practice, however, additional factors influence the signal, complicating interpretation. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Central Platte Natural Resources District, evaluated whether hydraulic parameters derived from surface nuclear magnetic resonance data could provide valuable input into groundwater models used for evaluating water-management practices. Two calibration sites in Dawson County, Nebraska, were chosen based on previous detailed hydrogeologic and geophysical investigations. At both sites, surface nuclear magnetic resonance data were collected, and derived parameters were compared with results from four constant-discharge aquifer tests previously conducted at those same sites. Additionally, borehole electromagnetic-induction flowmeter data were analyzed as a less-expensive surrogate for traditional aquifer tests. Building on recent work, a novel surface nuclear magnetic resonance modeling and inversion method was developed that incorporates electrical conductivity and effects due to magnetic-field inhomogeneities, both of which can have a substantial impact on the data. After comparing surface nuclear magnetic resonance inversions at the two calibration sites, the nuclear magnetic-resonance-derived parameters were compared with previously performed aquifer tests in the Central Platte Natural Resources District. This comparison served as a blind test for the developed method. The nuclear magnetic-resonance-derived aquifer parameters were in agreement with results of aquifer tests where the environmental noise allowed data collection and the aquifer test zones overlapped with the surface nuclear magnetic resonance testing. In some cases, the previously performed aquifer tests were not designed fully to characterize the aquifer, and the surface nuclear magnetic resonance was able to provide missing data. In favorable locations, surface nuclear magnetic resonance is able to provide valuable noninvasive information about aquifer parameters and should be a useful tool for groundwater managers in Nebraska.

Nebraska

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Book chapter

Characterization of stormwater runoff in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 1995-96

The Kenai River in southcentral Alaska is an economically important salmon river generating as much as $78 million annually in direct benefits. Resource-management agencies are concerned that increased sedimentation and loss of streamside cover associated with accelerated erosion rates caused by boat activity may threaten salmon returns to the river. Bank loss and boat activity were characterized during 1996 along 67 miles of the Kenai River, including a segment of the river several miles long where boat activity is restricted to non-motorized uses. Bank loss in the non-motorized segment of the river was about 75 percent less than that observed in the highest boat-use area of the river and 33 per cent less than that observed in the lowest boat-use area of the river. Dates of peak boat activity coincided closely with chinook salmon returns to the Kenai River and with peaks in measured bank erosion. The boat activity period began in late May, peaked on weekend days in mid-July, and declined in early August. Observed boat traffic on the Kenai River included boats from 10 to 26 feet in length that transported 1 to 8 passengers. The most commonly observed boats were between 16 and 20 feet long and carried 4 or 5 passengers. The number of boats operated by commercial fishing guides represented 40 percent of the boats counted by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 55 percent of the boats counted by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and 57 percent of those recorded by observers during this study. The maximum boat activity and the maximum bank loss were measured at the RW's Campground study site about 16 river miles upstream from the mouth of the Kenai River. Between July 12 and September 10, 1996, more than 20,100 boats traveled by this site and the streambank along the inside of the meander bend was undercut to a depth of 45 inches at one measuring point. Boat activity and bank loss were greatest in areas of the river between about river miles 9 and 18 and river miles 39 and 46. These two segments of the river are popular residential and fishing areas and have banks composed of non-cohesive soils. In addition, a meandering, un-armored channel makes the banks along these two segments susceptible to erosion. The Kenai River in southcentral Alaska is an economically important salmon river generating as much as $78 million annually in direct benefits. Resource-management agencies are concerned that increased sedimentation and loss of streamside cover associated with accelerated erosion rates caused by boat activity may threaten salmon returns to the river. Bank loss and boat activity were characterized during 1996 along 67 miles of the Kenai River, including a segment of the river several miles long where boat activity is restricted to non-motorized uses. Bank loss in the non-motorized segment of the river was about 75 percent less than that observed in the highest boat-use area of the river and 33 percent less than that observed in the lowest boat-use area of the river. Dates of peak boat activity coincided closely with chinook salmon returns to the Kenai River and with peaks in measured bank erosion. The boat activity period began in late May, peaked on weekend days in mid-July, and declined in early August. Observed boat traffic on the Kenai River included boats from 10 to 26 feet in length that transported 1 to 8 passengers. The most commonly observed boats were between 16 and 20 feet long and carried 4 or 5 passengers. The number of boats operated by commercial fishing guides represented 40 percent of the boats counted by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 55 percent of the boats counted by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and 57 percent of those recorded by observers during this study. The maximum boat activity and the maximum bank loss were measured at the RW's Campground study site about 16 river miles upstream from the mouth of the Kenai River. Between July 12 and September 10, 1996, more than 20,10

Water-Resources Investigations Report