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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources

Delayed dynamic triggering of disposal-induced earthquakes observed by a dense array in Northern Oklahoma

Recent increases in earthquake occurrence rates in Oklahoma have been linked to the injection of large volumes of saltwater, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction. Here we present a detailed study of remote earthquake triggering in an area of active injection‐induced seismicity in northern Oklahoma using data from the LArge‐n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) temporary array and nearby permanent broadband seismic stations. We estimate changes in earthquake rates and calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes on potential receiver faults due to passing teleseismic surface waves. A statistically significant increase in seismicity is observed ∼8 hr after the 16 April 2016 M w 7.8 Ecuador earthquake. The Coulomb stress changes associated with the Ecuador earthquake are on the order of ∼1 kPa. Physical mechanisms consistent with the observed dynamic stress threshold include failure driven by activation of aseismic slip or hydrological response of the fault system.

Oklahoma↗

Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions

We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method analyzes ten different continental margins, that were mapped by high-resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent GIS procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin [Chaytor et al., 2009]. Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the ten margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin, the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all ten margins and thus the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Locating shallow seismic sources with waves scattered by surface topography: Validation of the method at the Nevada Test Site

Accurate and robust source location is fundamental in seismology. Previously, we proposed a new full waveform location method using waves scattered by topography near the source, and we demonstrated its potential in obtaining accurate source location using synthetic data. In the work presented here, we validate this method with observed seismic data from the 1993 Non-Proliferation Experiment, a chemical explosion with a precisely known location in a region with moderate topography at the Nevada Test Site. We select the first arrivals (Pn/Pg) and their immediate codas to determine the source location and compare our solution with the known location. We use a collocated-grid finite-difference method to calculate the strain Green’s tensor in a grid-search volume containing the source, and obtain three-component synthetic waveforms at 12 broadband seismic stations at regional distances using source-receiver reciprocity. We assess the solution using a least-squares misfit between the observed and synthetic waveforms. When scattered coda waves are incorporated, the best solution is within a few hundreds of meters of the exact source location, and the estimated uncertainty of the solution is reduced compared to the waveform based solution using only the P waves. The solution is robust to the choice of the frequency content and to the addition of random velocity heterogeneity. We conclude that the full waveform source location method is effective for real seismic data, though more validation tests like this one are needed to further understand its efficacy for source-station geometry, roughness of topography, signal quality and other factors.

Nevada↗

Interseismic quiescence and triggered slip of active normal faults of Kīlauea Volcano’s south flank during 2001-2018

The mobile south flank of Kīlauea Volcano hosts two normal fault systems, the Koa'e fault system (KFS) and the Hilina fault system (HFS). In historical time, at least three M>6.5 earthquakes have occurred on the basal detachment of the Kīlauea Volcano's south flank, with the most recent being the 4 May 2018 M6.9 earthquake. Here we analyze kinematic Global Positioning System data collected from 2001 to 2017 and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data before, during, and after the 2018 M6.9 earthquake to determine the crustal motion across the HFS and KFS faults. Our results indicate that the HFS faults did not significantly slip during the interseismic period from 2007 to 2011. Despite its substantial magnitude, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data show that the 2018 M6.9 earthquake triggered subcentimeter level slip along sections of the previously mapped HFS branches. Up to 20 cm of offset occurred on what appears to be a newly formed (or previously unknown) fault near the eastern end of the HFS. During the 3 months following the M6.9 earthquake, up to ~30 cm of slip occurred along the KFS, which helps accommodate rapid large‐scale subsidence of Kīlauea's summit region as large volumes of summit reservoir magma fed the lower East Rift Zone eruption. The HFS appears to activate only in concert with large earthquakes on the basal detachment. The KFS, on the other hand, moves both seismically during small local earthquakes and aseismically in response to nearby earthquakes and caldera subsidence.

Hawaii↗

Slow-growing and extended-duration seismicity swarms: Reactivating joints or foliations in the Cahuilla Valley Pluton, Central Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

Three prolific earthquake swarms and numerous smaller ones have occurred since 1980 in the Mesozoic igneous plutonic rocks of the Perris block of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major swarms occurred in 1980–1981, 1983–1984, and 2016–2018, with the latest swarm still ongoing. These swarms have no clear mainshock, with the largest events of M L 3.6, M L 3.7, and M w 4.4. Each successive swarm had larger cumulative seismic moment release with about 314 and 411 events of M ≥ 1.5, while the third swarm has produced about 451 events of M ≥ 1.5 (as of September 2018). The concurrent strike‐slip faulting occurred on north to northwest striking planes but with no orthogonal northeast trending seismicity alignments. These shallow swarms are probably driven by intrablock Pacific‐North America plate boundary stress loading of the two bounding major late Quaternary strike‐slip faults, the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults. The state of stress within the Cahuilla Valley pluton has a ~40° angle between the maximum principal stress and the average trend of the swarms, suggesting that migrating pore fluid pressures aid in the formation and growth of zones of weakness. These swarms, which last more than 600 days each, exhibit clear bilateral spatial migration for distances of up to ~7–8 km and reach their full length in about 20 months. The slow spatial‐temporal development of the swarms corresponds to a fluid diffusivity of 0.006 to 0.01 m 2 /s, consistent with very low permeability rocks as expected for this block. There is no geodetic or other evidence for a slow slip event driving the swarms.

California↗

Heat flow in the Western Arctic Ocean (Amerasian Basin)

From 1963 to 1973 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured heat flow at 356 sites in the Amerasian Basin (Western Arctic Ocean) from a drifting ice island (T-3). The resulting measurements, which are unevenly distributed on Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge (AMR) and in Canada and Nautilus basins, greatly expand available heat flow data for the Arctic Ocean. Average T-3 heat flow is ~54.7 ± 11.3 mW m-2, and Nautilus Basin, including Mendeleev Plain, is the only well-surveyed area (~13% of data) with significantly higher average heat flow (63.8 mW m-2). Heat flow and bathymetry are not correlated at a large scale, and turbiditic surficial sediments (Canada and Nautilus basins) have higher heat flow than the sediments that blanket the AMR. Thermal gradients are mostly near-linear, implying that conductive heat transport dominates and that near-seafloor sediments are in thermal equilibrium with overlying bottom waters. Combining the heat flow data with modern seismic imagery suggests that some of the observed heat flow variability may be explained by local changes in sediment thickness or lithology or the presence of basement faults that channel circulating seawater. A thermal model that incorporates thermal conductivity variations along a profile from Canada Basin (thick sediment on mostly oceanic crust) to Alpha Ridge (thin sediment over thick magmatic units associated with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province) predicts heat flow lower than that observed on Alpha Ridge. This, along with other observations, implies that circulating fluids modulate conductive heat flow and contribute to high variability in the T-3 dataset. .

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Crustal magmatism and anisotropy beneath the Arabian Shield - A cautionary tale

Volcanism in Saudi Arabia includes a historic eruption close to the holy city of Al Madinah. As part of a volcanic hazard assessment of this area, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected to investigate the structural setting, the distribution of melt within the crust, and the mantle source of volcanism. Interpretation of a new 3‐D resistivity model includes a shallow graben beneath thin lava fields (Harrats), a melt‐free upper crust, and decompression melting in the asthenosphere below thin lithosphere. Within the lower crust the model images elongate conductivity anomalies, one of which was attributed in a previous MT study to melt. The regional MT data, combined with perspective from geology and geophysical modeling, suggest the lower crust is anisotropic with no interconnected melt zones. These divergent interpretations have distinct hazard implications and highlight the importance of large survey aperture and anisotropic modeling to MT studies of volcanic regions. Lower‐crustal anisotropy extends beyond the Harrat, with the most conductive direction oriented N10°E and a factor of 3–5, determined from 2‐D anisotropic inversion, between the most and least conductive directions. The enhanced conductivity is likely due to interconnected grain boundary graphite, while the anisotropy direction reflects either frozen‐in fabric from Neoproterozoic stabilization of the Arabian Shield or modern ductile deformation driven by channelized asthenospheric flow coupled through a thin rigid mantle lid. Asthenospheric melt is interpreted to transect the crust primarily through diking, with limited melt storage and short residence times in the crust.

Arabian Shield↗

Introduction to special issue on gas hydrate in porous media: Linking laboratory and field‐scale phenomena

The proliferation of drilling expeditions focused on characterizing natural gas hydrate as a potential energy resource has spawned widespread interest in gas hydrate reservoir properties and associated porous media phenomena. Between 2017 and 2019, a Special Section of this journal compiled contributed papers elucidating interactions between gas hydrate and sediment based on laboratory, numerical modeling, and field studies. Motivated mostly by field observations in the northern Gulf of Mexico and offshore Japan, several papers focus on the mechanisms for gas hydrate formation and accumulation, particularly with vapor phase gas, not dissolved gas, as the precursor to hydrate. These studies rely on numerical modeling or laboratory experiments using sediment packs or benchtop micromodels. A second focus of the Special Section is the role of fines in inhibiting production of gas from methane hydrate, controlling the distribution of hydrate at a pore scale, and influencing the bulk behavior of seafloor sediments. Other papers fill knowledge gaps related to the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments and advance new approaches in coupled thermal-mechanical modeling of these sediments during hydrate dissociation. Finally, one study addresses the long-standing question about the fate of methane hydrate at the molecular level when CO2 is injected into natural reservoirs under hydrate-forming conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Peak ground velocity spatial variability revealed by dense seismic array in southern California

Understanding and modeling variability of ground motion is essential for building accurate and precise ground motion prediction equations, which can net site‐specific characterization and reduced hazard levels. Here, we explore the spatial variability in peak ground velocity (PGV) at Sage Brush Flats along the San Jacinto Fault in southern California. We use data from a dense array (0.6 x 0.6 km 2 , 1,108 geophones, station spacings 10‐30 m) deployed in 2014 for ~1‐month. These data offer an opportunity to study small scale variability in this region. We examine 38 2≤M L ≤4.2 earthquakes within 200 km of the array. Fault strands and a small basin impact the ground motions, producing PGV variations up to 22% of the mean and a 40% reduction in P and S wave near‐surface velocities. We find along‐fault rupture directivity, source, and path effects can increase PGVs by 167%. Surface PGV measurements exceed the co‐located borehole station (depth 148 m) PGV by factors of 3‐10, confirming the impact on PGV from near surface fault structures, basins, topography, and amplifications from soft sediments. Consistently we find high PGVs within the basin structure. A pair of ~co‐located M L 2.6 events produce repeatable PGV values with similar spatial patterns. The average corner frequencies of these two events are 11‐16 Hz and viable measurements of stress drop can differ by 6.45MPa. Within this small array, the PGV values are variable implying spatial extrapolation of PGV to regions of known faults and basins, even across a small area, should be done with caution.

California↗

Temporal seismic velocity variations: Recovery following from the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake

We investigated seismic velocity changes ( dv / v ) associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence with high‐frequency autocorrelations of ambient seismic noise data. Daily autocorrelation functions were computed for the entirety of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 for broadband stations within the region, including the temporary broadband stations installed during the aftershock deployment. Travel time shifts in the daily autocorrelation functions, relative to the mean autocorrelation waveform, were computed to produce dv / v time series, which are sensitive to the evolving material properties of the shallow crust surrounding the Ridgecrest fault zone (RFZ). A short‐term velocity drop follows the M w 7.1 earthquake at stations in the vicinity of the rupture surface, while those greater than 50 km away showed no such drop. The maximum, absolute changes in seismic velocity are proportional to the logarithm of distance from the fault rupture and to the peak dynamic strain experienced during the earthquake. Near the areas of the highest coseismic slip within the RFZ, seismic velocities recovered over 3 months. However, in the vicinity of the nearby Garlock fault, where triggered slip manifested, and north of the RFZ, seismic velocities recovered within a month. We interpret the seismic velocity changes and their recovery to be largely due to changes in the physical properties of the shallow crust, such as fault zone damage recovery caused by the earthquake rupture process and in response to the large dynamic stresses of passing seismic waves from the mainshock.

California↗

Three Mw ≥ 4.7 earthquakes within the Changning (China) shale gas field ruptured shallow faults intersecting with hydraulic fracturing wells

From 2017 to 2019, three destructive earthquakes (27 January 2017 Mw 4.7, 16 December 2018 Mw 5.2, and 3 January 2019 Mw 4.8) occurred in the Changning shale gas field in the southwest Sichuan Basin, China. Previous seismological studies attributed these events to hydraulic fracturing (HF), but were unable to identify the causative seismogenic faults and their slip behaviors. Here, we use Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar data to measure surface deformation triggered by the three events and conduct geodetic inversions to characterize their rupture models. The resulting coseismic interferograms show prominent surface deformation with the maximum line-of-sight displacements of up to 4 cm. The inversion results show that all three earthquakes mainly ruptured sedimentary formations above the shale gas bed, in the upper 3 km of the crust, with slip magnitudes ranging from 8.5 to 15 cm, and stress drops ranging from ∼1.8 to ∼3.3 MPa. Their source faults intersect with horizontal HF wells, but do not root in the crystalline basement. Combined with the reported difficulty of increasing HF operation pressures prior to the three events, we argue that they were most likely induced by direct injection of pressurized fluids into the fault zones. Crustal deformation patterns inferred from regional topography and GPS velocities highlight that the Changning field is located within a triple junction region near the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau with large deformation gradients; such conditions are not only favorable to the development of critically stressed faults, but also facilitate the occurrence of at least moderate magnitude earthquakes.

Changning shale gas field, Sichuan Basin↗

Synthetic evaluation of infrasonic multipole waveform inversion

Acoustic source inversions estimate the mass flow rate of volcanic explosions or yield of chemical explosions and provide insight into potential source directionality. However, the limitations of applying these methods to complex sources and their ability to resolve a stable solution have not been investigated in detail. We perform synthetic infrasound waveform inversions that use 3-D Green’s functions for a variety of idealized and realistic deployment scenarios using both a flat plane and Yasur volcano, Vanuatu as examples. We investigate the ability of various scenarios to retrieve the input source functions and relative amplitudes for monopole and multipole (monopole and dipole) inversions. Infrasound waveform inversions appear to be a robust method to quantify mass flow rates from simple sources (monopole) using deployments of infrasound sensors placed around a source, but care should be taken when analyzing and interpreting results from more complex acoustic sources (multipole) that have significant directional components. In the examples we consider the solution is stable for monopole inversions with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than five and the dipole component is small. For most scenarios investigated, the vertical dipole component of the multipole explosion source is poorly constrained and can impact the ability to recover the other source term components. Because multipole inversions are ill-posed for many deployments, a low residual does not necessarily mean the proper source vector has been recovered. Synthetic studies can help investigate the limitations and place bounds on information that may be missing using monopole and multipole inversions for potentially directional sources.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth↗

Microgravity change during the 2008-2018 Kı̄lauea summit eruption: Nearly a decade of subsurface mass accumulation

Results from nine microgravity campaigns from Kı̄lauea, Hawaiʻi, spanning most of the volcano's 2008–2018 summit eruption, indicate persistent mass accumulation at shallow levels. A weighted least squares approach is used to recover microgravity results from a network of benchmarks around Kı̄lauea's summit, eliminate instrumental drift, and restore suspected data tares. A total mass of 1.9 × 10 11 kg was determined from these microgravity campaigns to have accumulated below Kı̄lauea Caldera during 2009–2015 at an estimated depth of 1.3 km below sea level. Only a fraction of this mass is reflected in surface deformation, and this is consistent with previously reported discrepancies between subsurface mass accumulation and observed surface deformation. The discrepancy, amongst other independent evidence from gas emissions, seismicity, and continuous gravimetry, indicate densification of magma in the reservoirs below the volcano summit. This densification may have been driven by degassing through the summit vent. It is hypothesized that during the final years of the summit eruption, magma densification resulted in a buildup of pressure in the reservoirs that may have contributed to the lower East Rift Zone outbreak of 2018. The observed mass accumulation beneath Kı̄lauea could not have been detected through other techniques and illustrates the importance of microgravity measurements in volcano monitoring.

Hawai'i↗

High-resolution InSAR reveals localized pre-eruptive deformation inside the crater of Agung Volcano, Indonesia

During a volcanic crisis, high-rate, localized deformation can indicate magma close to the surface, with important implications for eruption forecasting. However, only a few such examples have been reported, because frequent, dense monitoring is needed. High-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is capable of achieving <1 m spatial resolution and sub-weekly revisit times, but is under-used. Here we use high-resolution satellite SAR imagery from COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, and Sentinel-1 to detect intra-crater uplift preceding the November 2017 onset of eruptive activity at Agung, Indonesia. Processing the SAR imagery with an up-to-date, accurate, high-resolution digital elevation model was crucial for preventing aliasing of the deformation signal and for accurate georeferencing. We show that >15 cm of line-of-sight shortening occurred over a 400-by-400 m area on the crater floor in September-October 2017, accompanying a deep seismic swarm and flank dyke intrusion. We attribute the deformation to the pressurization of a shallow (<200 m deep) hydrothermal system by the injection of magmatic gases and fluids. We also observe a second pulse of intra-crater deformation of 3–5 cm within 4 days to 11 hr prior to the first phreatomagmatic eruption, which is consistent with interaction between the hydrothermal system and the ascending magma. This phreatomagmatic eruption created the central pathway used during the final stages of magma ascent. Our observations have important implications for understanding unrest and eruption forecasting, and demonstrate the potential of monitoring with high-resolution SAR.

Agung Volcano, Bali↗

Identification of seismo-volcanic regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) via systematic tuning of an unsupervised classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes.

Whakaari, White Island↗

Tide gage measurements of uplift along the south coast of Alaska

Annual mean sea levels along the south coast of Alaska are used to measure uplift along the Alaska‐Aleutian subduction zone. Oceanographic effects are removed from the observed annual mean sea levels by subtracting a correction that is proportional to the sea level fluctuations observed in southeast Alaska. That correction is effective in reducing fluctuations in the observed, annual mean sea level as far west as the tip of Alaska peninsula. Additional corrections to remove the eustatic rise in sea level and the apparent fall in sea level due to postglacial isostatic rebound of the land are introduced. This corrected sea level record should provide a measure of tectonic subsidence. In the area affected by the 1964 Alaska earthquake, postseismic uplift occurs where coseismic subsidence was observed, and postseismic subsidence occurs where coseismic uplift was observed. The immediate postseismic response is damped out within the first decade, and the subsequent uplift rates appear to be steady over the 1974–1989 interval. However, some of those rates seem to be too high to be sustained over the ∼1000 year earthquake recurrence interval appropriate to this area if the interseismic deformation is only to recover the coseismic displacement. Thus a long‐term ( ∼100 years) relaxation in uplift rates is postulated. The immediate (time constant ∼5 years) postseismic relaxation is attributed to postseismic slip on the plate interface directly downdip from the coseismic rupture. The long‐term (time constant ∼100 years) relaxation is attributed to flow in the asthenosphere.

Alaska↗

Basin and range crustal and upper mantle structure, northwest to central Nevada

We present an interpretation of the crustal and uppermost mantle structure of the Basin and Range of northwestern Nevada based on seismic refraction/wide‐angle reflection, near‐vertical reflection, and gravity data. In comparison to most previous estimates, we find that the crust is somewhat thicker (32–36 km versus 22–30 km), and the uppermost mantle velocity is somewhat higher (8.0 km/s versus 7.3–7.9 km/s). Along our transects, the crust is thinnest (32 km) in the Carson Sink‐Buena Vista Valley region and increases by 2–4 km to the west and east, respectively. There is considerable complexity throughout the crust where velocities range from of 2.5 km/s at the surface to 7.4 km/s in the lowermost crust. Variations in velocity and structure of the upper crustal layers reveal apparent basement velocity depressions (areas of lower velocities extending up to 10 km in depth) that underlie some surface ranges as well as the basins. The middle crust rises from about 20 km beneath central Nevada to within 12 km of the surface beneath the area of thinnest crust and is characterized by a modest (∼0.1 km/s) change in velocity and low‐velocity gradients. These midcrustal layers mark the onset of high crustal reflectivity and the apparent limiting depth to which Basin and Range faults can be traced in near‐vertical reflection profiles, suggesting that these midcrustal layers represent the transition between the brittle and ductile zones of the crust. The lower crust is more structurally complex, with layers thickening and thinning in a systematic manner with the upper crustal layers; generally, where there are velocity depressions in the upper crust, the lower crust is thickest and shallowest. The geometry of these lower crustal layers (derived from refraction modeling) coincides with changes in the crustal reflectivity, determined from the Consortium of Continental Reflection Profiling reflection data. The lower crustal layer is unusually high in velocity (7.4 km/s) and is likely the layer identified as mantle in some previous studies. We do not identify the 7.4 km/s layer as mantle because (1) there is an underlying layer with a velocity (8.0 km/s) that is more consistent with the worldwide average velocity for the upper mantle, and (2) the 7.4 km/s layer does not correspond to the “reflection” Moho. Gravity modeling and comparison to existing seismic models show a general consensus in many aspects with respect to crustal structure. This new model forms the basis for speculation on some of the processes associated with rifting of the Basin and Range Province. One such process, lithospheric magmatism, is inferred from the strong attenuation of transmitted seismic waves, which occurs at the same interface at which high‐amplitude, bright spot reflections originate. Unlike previous models, the overall structure and velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle of our new model are similar to other regions worldwide which have undergone high degrees of extension.

Nevada↗

The velocity field along the San Andreas Fault in central and southern California

The velocity field within a 100‐km‐broad zone centered on the San Andreas fault between the Mexican border and San Francisco Bay has been inferred from repeated surveys of trilateration networks in the 1973–1989 interval. The velocity field has the appearance of a shear flow that remains parallel to the local strike of the fault even through such major deflections as the big bend of the San Andreas fault in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Across‐strike profiles of the fault‐parallel component of velocity exhibit the expected sigmoidal shape, whereas across‐strike profiles of the fault‐normal component of velocity are flat and featureless. No significant convergence upon the fault is observed even along the big bend sector of the fault. Simple dislocation models can explain most of the features of the observed velocity field, but those explanations are not unique. About 35 mm/yr of relative plate motion is accounted for within the span of the trilateration networks. Geologic studies indicate that the secular slip rate on the San Andreas fault is about 35 mm/yr. The agreement between these two estimates implies that most of the strain accumulation is elastic and will be recovered in subsequent earthquakes. The relative motion observed across the San Andreas fault (35 mm/yr) plus that observed across the Eastern California shear zone (8 mm/yr) accounts for most (43 mm/yr) of the observed North America‐Pacific relative plate motion (47 mm/yr).

California↗