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A call to action: Standardizing white-tailed deer harvest data in the Midwestern United States and implications for quantitative analysis and disease management

Recreational hunting has been the dominant game management and conservation mechanism in the United States for the past century. However, there are numerous modern-day issues that reduce the viability and efficacy of hunting-based management, such as fewer hunters, overabundant wildlife populations, limited access, and emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. Quantifying the drivers of recreational harvest by hunters could inform potential management actions to address these issues, but this is seldom comprehensively accomplished because data collection practices limit some analytical applications (e.g., differing spatial scales of harvest regulations and harvest data). Additionally, managing large-scale issues, such as infectious diseases, requires collaborations across management agencies, which is challenging or impossible if data are not standardized. Here we discuss modern issues with the prevailing wildlife management framework in the United States from an analytical point of view with a case study of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in the Midwest. We have four aims: (1) describe the interrelated processes that comprise hunting and suggest improvements to current data collections systems, (2) summarize data collection systems employed by state wildlife management agencies in the Midwestern United States and discuss potential for large-scale data standardization, (3) assess how aims 1 and 2 influence managing infectious diseases in hunted wildlife, and (4) suggest actionable steps to help guide data collection standards and management practices. To achieve these goals, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources disseminated a questionnaire to state wildlife agencies (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin), and we report and compare their harvest management structures, data collection practices, and responses to chronic wasting disease. We hope our “call to action” encourages re-evaluation, coordination, and improvement of harvest and management data collection practices with the goal of improving the analytical potential of these data. A deeper understanding of the strengths and deficiencies of our current management systems in relation to harvest and management data collection methods could benefit the future development of comprehensive and collaborative management and research initiatives (e.g., adaptive management) for wildlife and their diseases.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minne

The Wetland and Aquatic Research Center strategic science plan

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center (WARC) has two primary locations (Gainesville, Florida, and Lafayette, Louisiana) and field stations throughout the southeastern United States and Caribbean. WARC’s roots are in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and National Park Service research units that were brought into the USGS as the Biological Research Division in 1996. Founded in 2015, WARC was created from the merger of two long-standing USGS biology science Centers—the Southeast Ecological Science Center and the National Wetlands Research Center—to bring together expertise in biology, ecology, landscape science, geospatial applications, and decision support in order to address issues nationally and internationally. WARC scientists apply their expertise to a variety of wetland and aquatic research and monitoring issues that require coordinated, integrated efforts to better understand natural environments. By increasing basic understanding of the biology of important species and broader ecological and physiological processes, this research provides information to policymakers and aids managers in their stewardship of natural resources and in regulatory functions. This strategic science plan (SSP) was developed to guide WARC research during the next 5–10 years in support of Department of the Interior (DOI) partnering bureaus such as the USFWS, the National Park Service, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, as well as other Federal, State, and local natural resource management agencies. The SSP demonstrates the alignment of the WARC goals with the USGS mission areas, associated programs, and other DOI initiatives. The SSP is necessary for workforce planning and, as such, will be used as a guide for future needs for personnel. The SSP also will be instrumental in developing internal funding priorities and in promoting WARC’s capabilities to both external cooperators and other groups within the USGS.

Open-File Report

The flora of the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, Stutsman County, North Dakota

The 92 ha Cottonwood Lake Study Area is located in south-central North Dakota along the eastern edge of a glacial stagnation moraine known as the Missouri Coteau. The study area has been the focus of biologic and hydrologic research since the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service purchased the site in 1963. We studied the plant communities of the Cottonwood Lake Study Area from 1992 to 2001. During this time period, the vascular flora of the study area consisted of 220 species representing 51 families. Over half of the species were perennial forbs (117 species). Perennial grasses (26 species) and annual forbs (22 species) made up the next two largest physiognomic groupings. The flora, having a mean Coefficient of Conservatism of 4.6 and a Floristic Quality Index of 62, consisted of 187 native species. Thirty-three species were non-natives. Our annotated list should provide information useful to researchers, graduate students, and others as they design and implement future studies in wetlands and uplands both in and around the Cottonwood Lake Study Area.

Prairie Naturalist

Structured decision making

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Book chapter

Human activities and weather drive contact rates of wintering elk

Wildlife aggregation patterns can influence disease transmission. However, limited research evaluates the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on aggregation. Many managers would like to reduce wildlife contact rates, driven by aggregation, to limit disease transmission. We develop a novel analytical framework to quantify how management activities such as supplemental feeding and hunting versus weather drive contact rates while accounting for correlated contacts. We apply the framework to the National Elk Refuge (NER), Wyoming, USA, where the probable arrival of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has magnified concerns. We used a daily proximity index to measure contact rates among 68 global positioning system collared elk from 2016 to 2019. We modelled contact rates as a function of abiotic weather‐related effects, anthropogenic effects and aggregation from the prior day. The winter of 2017–2018 had greater natural forage availability and little snow, which led to a rare non‐feeding year on the NER and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of feeding on contact rates relative to other conditions. Supplemental feeding was the strongest predictor of aggregation, and contact rates were 2.6 times larger while feeding occurred compared to the baseline rate (0.34 and 0.13, respectively). Snow‐covered area was the second strongest predictor of contact rates highlighting the importance of abiotic factors to elk aggregation, but this effect had half the strength of feeding. These results are the first to show, even in animals that congregate naturally, how greatly supplemental feeding amplifies aggregation. Contact rates were also 23% lower during times when elk hunting was active (0.10) compared to the baseline. Synthesis and applications . Supplemental feeding increased contacts between elk well above the natural effects of weather, even after accounting for correlated movement expected in wintering ungulates. Similarly, differences in hunting season timing with adjacent areas led to an increase in contacts, suggesting an additional management option for reducing aggregation. The analytical framework presented supports the evaluation of temporally varying management actions that influence aggregation broadly and can be easily implemented whether the interest in changing aggregation is related to reduction of disease transmission, human–wildlife conflict or inter‐species competition.

Wyoming

Anticoagulant rodenticide toxicity to non-target wildlife under controlled exposure conditions

Much of our understanding of anticoagulant rodenticide toxicity to non-target wildlife has been derived from molecular through whole animal research and registration studies in domesticated birds and mammals, and to a lesser degree from trials with captive wildlife. Using these data, an adverse outcome pathway identifying molecular initiating and anchoring events (inhibition of vitamin K epoxide reductase, failure to activate clotting factors), and established and plausible linkages (coagulopathy, hemorrhage, anemia, reduced fitness) associated with toxicity, is presented. Controlled exposure studies have demonstrated that second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (e.g., brodifacoum) are more toxic than first- and intermediate-generation compounds (e.g., warfarin, diphacinone), however the difference in potency is diminished when first- and intermediate-generation compounds are administered on multiple days. Differences in species sensitivity are inconsistent among compounds. Numerous studies have compared mortality rate of predators fed prey or tissue containing anticoagulant rodenticides. In secondary exposure studies in birds, brodifacoum appears to pose the greatest risk, with bromadiolone, difenacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone being less hazardous than brodifacoum, and warfarin, coumatetralyl, coumafuryl, chlorophacinone and diphacinone being even less hazardous. In contrast, substantial mortality was noted in secondary exposure studies in mammals ingesting prey or tissue diets containing either second- or intermediate-generation compounds. Sublethal responses (e.g., prolonged clotting time, reduced hematocrit and anemia) have been used to study the sequelae of anticoagulant intoxication, and to some degree in the establishment of toxicity thresholds or toxicity reference values. Surprisingly few studies have undertaken histopathological evaluations to identify cellular lesions and hemorrhage associated with anticoagulant rodenticide exposure in non-target wildlife. Ecological risk assessments of anticoagulant rodenticides would be improved with additional data on (i) interspecific differences in sensitivity, particularly for understudied taxa, (ii) sublethal effects unrelated to coagulopathy, (iii) responses to mixtures and sequential exposures, and (iv) the role of vitamin K status on toxicity, and significance of inclusion of supplemental vitamin K or menadione (provitamin) in the diet of test organisms. A more complete understanding of the toxicity of anticoagulant rodenticides in non-target wildlife would enable regulators and natural resource managers to better predict and even mitigate risk.

Book chapter

Applications of unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) in landscape ecology: A review of recent research, challenges and emerging opportunities

Context Unoccupied aerial systems/vehicles (UAS/UAV, a.k.a. drones) have become an increasingly popular tool for ecological research. But much of the recent research is concerned with developing mapping and detection approaches, with few studies attempting to link UAS data to ecosystem processes and function. Landscape ecologists have long used high resolution imagery and spatial analyses to address ecological questions and are therefore uniquely positioned to advance UAS research for ecological applications. Objectives The review objectives are to: (1) provide background on how UAS are used in landscape ecological studies, (2) identify major advancements and research gaps, and (3) discuss ways to better facilitate the use of UAS in landscape ecology research. Methods We conducted a systematic review based on PRISMA guidelines using key search terms that are unique to landscape ecology research. We reviewed only papers that applied UAS data to investigate questions about ecological patterns, processes, or function. Results We summarize metadata from 161 papers that fit our review criteria. We highlight and discuss major research themes and applications, sensors and data collection techniques, image processing, feature extraction and spatial analysis, image fusion and satellite scaling, and open data and software. Conclusion We observed a diversity of UAS methods, applications, and creative spatial modeling and analysis approaches. Key aspects of UAS research in landscape ecology include modeling wildlife micro-habitats, scaling of ecosystem functions, landscape and geomorphic change detection, integrating UAS with historical aerial and satellite imagery, and novel applications of spatial statistics.

Landscape Ecology

Mangrove postcard

Mangrove ecosystems protect vulnerable coastlines from storm effects, recycle nutrients, stabilize shorelines, improve water quality, and provide habitat for commercial and recreational fish species as well as for threatened and endangered wildlife. U.S. Geological Survey scientists conduct research on mangrove ecosystems to provide reliable scientific information about their ecology, productivity, hydrological processes, carbon storage stress response, and restoration success. The Mangrove Science Network is a collaboration of USGS scientists focused on working with natural resource managers to develop and conduct research to inform decisions on mangrove management and restoration. Information about the Mangrove Science Network can be found at: http://www.usgs.gov/ecosystems/environments/mangroves.html .

General Information Product

Engineering geologic conditions at the sinkhole entrance to Logan Cave, Benton County, Arkansas

Logan Cave, located in Benton County, Arkansas, is inhabited by several endangered and threatened species. The cave and surrounding area was designated a National Wildlife Refuge under the control of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in 1989. Cave researchers access the cave through a steep-sided sinkhole entrance, which also is one of the two access points used by endangered bats. There is evidence of instability of one of the entrance slopes that has raised concerns that the entrance could close if slope failure was to occur. At the request of USFWS, we performed an engineering geologic investigation of the sinkhole to evaluate stability of this slope, which is comprised of soil, and other mechanisms of sediment transport into the cave entrance. The investigation included engineering geologic mapping, sampling and laboratory testing of subsurface geologic materials, and slope-stability analysis. We found that the sinkhole slope that extends into the entrance of the cave is comprised of sandy and gravelly soil to the depths explored (6.4 meters). This soil likely was deposited as alluvium within a previous, larger sinkhole. Based on properties of the alluvium, geometry of the slope, and results of finite-element slope-stability analyses, we conclude that the slope is marginally stable. Future failures of the slope probably would be relatively thin and small, thus several would be required to completely close the cave entrance. However, sediment is accumulating within the cave entrance due to foot traffic of those accessing the cave, surface-water erosion and transport, and shallow slope failures from the other sinkhole slopes. We conclude that the entrance will be closed by sediment in the future, similar to another entrance that we identified that completely closed in the past. Several measures could be taken to reduce the potential for closure of the cave entrance, including periodic sediment removal, installation of materials that reduce erosion by foot traffic and surface water, construction of a sediment-retention wall, and excavation of the soil slope. Any measures taken must be carefully planned and executed so that they have no impact on organisms within the cave.

Open-File Report

Documentation of data collection in Currituck Sound, North Carolina and Virginia, 2006-2007

During 2006 and 2007, scientists from Elizabeth City State University, North Carolina Estuarine Research Reserve, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey collected hydrologic and water-quality data at nine sites in and around Currituck Sound. Hydrologic and water-quality data were collected at five tributary sites--the Northwest River near Moyock, Tull Creek near Currituck, and Intracoastal Waterway near Coinjock in North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Chesapeake Canal near Princess Anne, and the North Landing River near Creeds in Virginia. In addition, data were collected at one site at the mouth of Currituck Sound (Currituck Sound at Point Harbor, North Carolina). Only water-quality data were collected at three sites in Currituck Sound and Back Bay-Currituck Sound near Jarvisburg, and Upper Currituck Sound near Corolla in North Carolina, and Back Bay near Back Bay in Virginia. The hydrologic data included water elevation and velocity, and discharge. The water-quality data included discrete samples and continuous measurements of water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and chlorophyll a. The hydrologic and water-quality data collected for this study were quality assured by the U.S. Geological Survey and stored in the National Water Information System database. The data collected for this project are being used to develop an unsteady multidimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model of Currituck Sound by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The purpose of this model is to provide the basis for planning and the development of best-management practices and restoration projects for Currituck Sound and its tributaries.

North Carolina, Virginia

Behavior and movement of adult summer steelhead following collection and release, lower Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012--2013

Executive Summary Historically, adult summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss returning to hatcheries on the lower Cowlitz River were sometimes transported and released in the river (recycled) to provide additional angling opportunity for the popular sport fishery in the basin. However, this practice has not been used in recent years because of concerns associated with interactions between hatchery fish and wild fish. Fishery managers were interested in resuming recycling but lacked information regarding effects of this practice on wild steelhead so we conducted a study during 2012–2013 to: (1) enumerate recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery or were removed by anglers; and (2) determine if steelhead that were not removed from the river remained in the system where they could interact with wild fish. During June–August 2012, a total of 549 summer steelhead were captured at the Cowlitz Salmon Hatchery, tagged, and released downstream near the Interstate 5 Bridge. All recycled steelhead were tagged with a white Floy ® tag and opercle-punched; 109 (20 percent) of these fish also were radio-tagged. All adult steelhead that return to the hatchery were handled by hatchery staff so recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery were enumerated daily. A creel survey and voluntary angler reports were used to determine the number of recycled steelhead that were caught by anglers. We established three fixed telemetry monitoring sites on the mainstem Cowlitz River and eight additional sites were deployed on tributaries to the lower Cowlitz River where wild winter steelhead are known to spawn. We also conducted mobile tracking from a boat during October 2012, November 2012, and January 2013 to locate radio-tagged fish. A total of 10,722 summer steelhead were captured at the Cowlitz Salmon Hatchery in 2012, which was the largest return since 2008. River flows during much of the study period were similar to 2008–2011 average flows, however, high-flow periods in July and November 2012 were nearly twice as high as the 2008–2011 average flows. We determined that 50 percent (273 fish) of the recycled steelhead returned to the hatchery and 18 percent (102 fish) of the recycled steelhead were caught by anglers. Most (243 fish; 89 percent) of the recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery were recollected during July–August. The average elapsed time from release to recapture at the hatchery was 9 days (d) and 72 percent (182 fish) of the fish returned to the hatchery within 14 d of release. These trends were similar for recycled steelhead that were caught by anglers. Most fish were caught during July–August and the median time from release to capture was 10 d. We determined that 65 percent (70 fish) of the angler-caught fish returned to the hatchery within 14 d of release. River flows appeared to affect both hatchery returns and angler catch. The daily number of recycled steelhead that were recollected at the hatchery were low during periods when river flows were decreasing and high during periods when river flows were increasing. Conversely, daily angler catch of recycled steelhead generally was low when flows were increasing and high when flows were decreasing. We determined that 32 percent of the recycled steelhead (174 fish) were not removed from the lower Cowlitz River, based on observations from hatchery returns and angler reports, but results from the radio-tagged fish were insightful for understanding what may have happened to these fish. By comparison, we determined that 24 percent of the radio-tagged fish were not known to have been removed from the river. We determined that 12 percent of these fish were actively moving in the lower Cowlitz River during October 2012–January 2013. None of the radio-tagged fish were detected in tributaries during the study period except for a single fish that spent approximately 7 d in the Toutle River during early September. During October 2012–January 2013, 10 percent of the radio-tags from recycled steelhead were detected near popular fishing areas, and 2 percent of the radio-tagged steelhead were never detected during the study period. We suspect that a large proportion of these fish may have been harvested and not reported, or died. Detection patterns of radio-tagged steelhead showed that most fish (82 percent) moved upstream from the release site and were detected at the Trout Hatchery and the Barrier Dam sites. The median time from release to detection at these sites was 3.7 d and many of these fish made multiple trips between the two sites. Nearly one-third (29 percent) of the recycled steelhead that were detected at the Trout Hatchery and the Barrier Dam made at least two trips between the sites and some fish made as many as six trips. Radio-tagged fish that remained in the lower Cowlitz River during the spawning period (December 2012–January 2013) were observed in the river reach between the mouth of Ostrander Creek (river mile 10) and the Trout Hatchery (river mile 44). During this study, we collected data on opercle punch regrowth rates to understand the temporal effectiveness of this marking technique. We took opercle measurements for a total of 190 fish during the study. Fresh opercle punches were measured for 63 fish at the time of marking, and the remaining 127 fish were measured when fish returned to the hatchery. We determined that opercle punches remained open for about 30 d. The holes appeared to regrow slowly in the first 20 d after marking, but regrowth accelerated during the 20–30 d post-marking period. After 30 d, all opercle punches that we observed had completely closed due to tissue regrowth. Our study showed that a large proportion (68 percent) of the recycled steelhead were removed from the lower Cowlitz River. These fish primarily entered the hatchery or were caught by anglers within 14 d of release, which suggests that they present minimal risk to wild fish in the system. However, the remaining fish (32 percent) could not be accounted for, which may complicate fisheries management decisions associated with recycling summer steelhead. Findings from the radiotelemetry study suggest that unreported harvest or mortality could explain a large proportion of those fish that were not reported as having been removed from the river. Furthermore, intensive monitoring of the key spawning tributaries failed to detect a single fish during the spawning period. These findings were supported by observations from weir traps operated by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Our findings indicate that additional research may be warranted to further examine the effects of recycling hatchery summer steelhead in the lower Cowlitz River.

Washington

The role of native birds and other wildlife on the emergence of zoonotic diseases

Wildlife can be an important source of transmission of infectious disease to humans. One potential transmission route involves hunting and fishing, both common activities in the United States and worldwide. For example, during 1996, approximately 11 million Americans, about 40 percent of the total population 16 years of age and older, took part in some recreational activity relating to wildlife and fish. Another potential route of infection focuses on urban and suburban environments. These locations are of special concern because of their increasing role as wildlife habitat, the greater interface between humans and wildlife that takes place within those environments, the paucity of knowledge about disease in those wildlife populations, and the general lack of orderly management for wildlife within those environments. In the wild, several trends are contributing to the growing importance of zoonotic diseases. First, the spectrum of infectious diseases affecting wildlife today is greater than at any time during the previous century. Second, the occurrence of infectious diseases has changed, from sporadic, self-limiting outbreaks that generally resulted in minor losses to frequently occurring events that generally result in major losses of wildlife. Third, disease emergence has occurred on a worldwide scale in a broad spectrum of wildlife species and habitats. Given the scope of the problem, current disease surveillance efforts are inadequate. Few state wildlife agencies allocate personnel and resources to address wildlife disease, despite their statutory responsibility for managing nonmigratory wildlife. Some state agencies provide minimal support for regional programs based at universities. At the federal level, the primary surveillance effort is conducted by the National Wildlife Health Center, operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. Outside of government, some veterinary schools, agriculture diagnostic laboratories, and other programs provide additional information on animal diseases, primarily by examining carcasses of dead wildlife submitted for analysis, and individual university-based researchers carry out a variety of studies. Typically, information about the occurrence of disease in free-ranging wildlife is derived from surveys and mortality events in areas where wildlife observations by agencies and the public are frequent enough to detect their occurrence before carcasses are removed by scavengers and predatory animals. The result is that disease occurrence is grossly underreported, heavily biased toward mortality events, and biased toward species of special concern and interest, such as game and endangered species. Therefore, the available information should be viewed as the “proverbial tip of the iceberg” relative to disease activity within wildlife populations.

National Academy of Science.

Twenty five years of Federal fishery research on the Great Lakes

The major purpose of this publication is to present an annotated bibliography of papers resulting from Federal investigations on the Great Lakes fish and fisheries since the formal initiation of a continuing research program by the Fish and Wildlife Service. It is believed that this purpose can be served best by prefacing that bibliography with a brief account of the origins of Great Lakes Fishery Investigations, of the circumstances that have guided their course, and of the scientists who have participated in the several studies.

Special Scientific Report - Fisheries

Final project memorandum: Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Project

Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers worked with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop information sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100 including their potential impact on the missions of federally-managed lands. Researchers drew from existing information on regional and global sea-level rise scenarios to develop customized information sheets for 54 federally-managed lands in the region (e.g., National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service lands, National Estuarine Research Reserves) (Chivoiu et al. 2020). This project was developed in response to a request for customized sea-level rise scenario products from partners at the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Gulf Restoration Program. The results of this project support the conservation stewardship missions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service by providing science to inform management of their lands along the Gulf of Mexico.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Establishing a definition of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health: A guide to research and management activities

The meaning of health for wildlife and perspectives on how to assess and measure health, are not well characterized. For wildlife at risk, such as some polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, establishing comprehensive monitoring programs that include health status is an emerging need. Environmental changes, especially loss of sea ice habitat, have raised concern about polar bear health. Effective and consistent monitoring of polar bear health requires an unambiguous definition of health. We used the Delphi method of soliciting and interpreting expert knowledge to propose a working definition of polar bear health and to identify current concerns regarding health, challenges in measuring health, and important metrics for monitoring health. The expert opinion elicited through the exercise agreed that polar bear health is defined by characteristics and knowledge at the individual, population, and ecosystem level. The most important threats identified were in decreasing order: climate change, increased nutritional stress, chronic physiological stress, harvest management, increased exposure to contaminants, increased frequency of human interaction, diseases and parasites, and increased exposure to competitors. Fifteen metrics were identified to monitor polar bear health. Of these, indicators of body condition, disease and parasite exposure, contaminant exposure, and reproductive success were ranked as most important. We suggest that a cumulative effects approach to research and monitoring will improve the ability to assess the biological, ecological, and social determinants of polar bear health and provide measurable objectives for conservation goals and priorities and to evaluate progress.

Science of the Total Environment

Large scale wildlife monitoring studies: Statistical methods for design and analysis

Techniques for estimation of absolute abundance of wildlife populations have received a lot of attention in recent years. The statistical research has been focused on intensive small-scale studies. Recently, however, wildlife biologists have desired to study populations of animals at very large scales for monitoring purposes. Population indices are widely used in these extensive monitoring programs because they are inexpensive compared to estimates of absolute abundance. A crucial underlying assumption is that the population index ( C ) is directly proportional to the population density ( D ). The proportionality constant, β , is simply the probability of 'detection' for animals in the survey. As spatial and temporal comparisons of indices are crucial, it is necessary to also assume that the probability of detection is constant over space and time. Biologists intuitively recognize this when they design rigid protocols for the studies where the indices are collected. Unfortunately, however in many field studios the assumption is clearly invalid. We believe that the estimation of detection probability should be built into the monitoring design through a double sampling approach. A large sample of points provides an abundance index, and a smaller sub-sample of the same points is used to estimate detection probability. There is an important need for statistical research on the design and analysis of these complex studies. Some basic concepts based on actual avian, amphibian, and fish monitoring studies are presented in this article.

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