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Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Chesapeake Bay

California State Waters Map Series: Offshore of Coal Oil Point, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area lies within the central Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and geodetic studies indicate that the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. Uplift rates (as much as 2.0 mm/yr) that are based on studies of onland marine terraces provide further evidence of significant shortening. The cities of Goleta and Isla Vista, the main population centers in the map area, are in the western part of a contiguous urban area that extends eastward through Santa Barbara to Carpinteria. This urban area is on the south flank of the east-west-trending Santa Ynez Mountains, on coalescing alluvial fans and uplifted marine terraces underlain by folded and faulted Miocene bedrock. In the map area, the relatively low-relief, elevated coastal bajada narrows from about 2.5 km wide in the east to less than 500 m wide in the west. Several beaches line the actively utilized coastal zone, including Isla Vista County Park beach, Coal Oil Point Reserve, and Goleta Beach County Park. The beaches are subject to erosion each winter during storm-wave attack, and then they undergo gradual recovery or accretion during the more gentle wave climate of the late spring, summer, and fall months. The Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area lies in the central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by littoral drift to the east-southeast. Longshore drift rates have been reported to range from about 160,000 to 800,000 tons/yr, averaging 400,000 tons/yr. Sediment supply to the western and central parts of the littoral cell, including the map area, is largely from relatively small transverse coastal watersheds. Within the map area, these coastal watersheds include (from east to west) Las Llagas Canyon, Gato Canyon, Las Varas Canyon, Dos Pueblos Canyon, Eagle Canyon, Tecolote Canyon, Winchester Canyon, Ellwood Canyon, Glen Annie Canyon, and San Jose Creek. The Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Rivers, the mouths of which are about 100 to 140 km northwest of the map area, are not significant sediment sources because Point Conception and Point Arguello provide obstacles to downcoast sediment transport and also because much of their sediment load is trapped in dams. The Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, the mouths of which are about 45 to 55 km southeast of the map area, are much larger sediment sources. Still farther east, eastward-moving sediment in the littoral cell is trapped by Hueneme and Mugu Canyons and then transported to the deep-water Santa Monica Basin. The offshore part of the map area consists of a relatively flat and shallow continental shelf, which dips gently seaward (about 0.8° to 1.0°) so that water depths at the shelf break, roughly coincident with the California’s State Waters limit, are about 90 m. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from the south and southwest by offshore islands and banks. The shelf is underlain by variable amounts of upper Quaternary marine and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The large (130 km2) Goleta landslide complex lies along the shelf break in the southern part of the map area. This compound slump complex may have been initiated more than 200,000 years ago, but it also includes three recent failures that may have been generated between 8,000 to 10,000 years ago. A local, 5- to 10-m-high tsunami may have been generated from these failure events. The map area has had a long history of hydrocarbon development, which began in 1928 with discovery of the Ellwood oil field. Subsequent discoveries in the offshore include South Ellwood offshore oil field, Coal Oil Point oil field, and Naples oil and gas field. Development of South Ellwood offshore field began in 1966 from platform “Holly,” the last platform to be installed in California’s State Waters. The area also is known for “the world’s most spectacular marine hydrocarbon seeps,” and large tar seeps are exposed on beaches east of the mouth of Goleta Slough. Offshore seeps adjacent to South Ellwood oil field release about 40 tons per day of methane and about 19 tons per day of ethane, propane, butane, and higher hydrocarbons. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft sediment and isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats, which lie primarily within the Shelf (continental shelf) but also partly within the Flank (basin flank or continental slope) megahabitats, range from soft, unconsolidated sediment to hard sedimentary bedrock. This heterogeneous seafloor provides promising habitat for rockfish, groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms.

California

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the Chehalis River basin, Washington

The Chehalis River has the largest drainage basin of any river entirely contained within the State of Washington with a watershed of approximately 2,700 mi 2 and has correspondingly diverse geology and land use. Demands for water resources have prompted the local citizens and governments of the Chehalis River basin to coordinate with Federal, State and Tribal agencies through the Chehalis Basin Partnership to develop a long-term watershed management plan. The recognition of the interdependence of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Chehalis River basin became the impetus for this study, the purpose of which is to describe the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the Chehalis River basin. Surficial geologic maps and 372 drillers' lithostratigraphic logs were used to generalize the basin-wide hydrogeologic framework. Five hydrogeologic units that include aquifers within unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments separated by discontinuous confining units were identified. These five units are bounded by a low permeability unit comprised of Tertiary bedrock. A water table map, and generalized groundwater-flow directions in the surficial aquifers, were delineated from water levels measured in wells between July and September 2009. Groundwater generally follows landsurface-topography from the uplands to the alluvial valley of the Chehalis River. Groundwater gradients are highest in tributary valleys such as the Newaukum River valley (approximately 23 cubic feet per mile), relatively flat in the central Chehalis River valley (approximately 6 cubic feet per mile), and become tidally influenced near the outlet of the Chehalis River to Grays Harbor. The dynamic interaction between groundwater and surface-water was observed through the synoptic streamflow measurements, termed a seepage run, made during August 2010, and monitoring of water levels in wells during the 2010 Water Year. The seepage run revealed an overall gain of 56.8 ± 23.7 cubic feet per second over 32.8 river miles (1.7 cubic feet per second per mile), and alternating gains and losses of streamflow ranging from -48.3 to 30.9 cubic feet per second per mile, which became more pronounced on the Chehalis River downstream of Grand Mound. However, most gains and losses were within measurement error. Groundwater levels measured in wells in unconsolidated sediments fluctuated with changes in stream stage, often within several hours. These fluctuations were set by precipitation events in the upper Chehalis River basin and tides of the Pacific Ocean in the lower Chehalis River basin.±

Scientific Investigations Report

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, Fayetteville, Arkansas, April 26-29, 2011

Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories and are developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) that span the entire geologic time frame. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, and post-depositional tectonic events that form carbonate rock aquifers are varied and complex, involving both biological and physical processes that can influence the development of permeability. These factors, combined with the diverse climatic regimes under which karst development in these rocks has taken place result in the unique dual or triple porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrologic systems often present challenges to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport. The concept for developing a Karst Interest Group evolved from the November 1999 National Groundwater Meeting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Water Resources Division. As a result, the Karst Interest Group was formed in 2000. The Karst Interest Group is a loose-knit grass-roots organization of USGS employees devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst hydrology studies. The mission of the Karst Interest Group is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among USGS scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the Karst Interest Group encourages cooperative studies between the different disciplines of the USGS and other Federal agencies, and university researchers or research institutes. This fifth workshop is a joint workshop of the USGS Karst Interest Group and University of Arkansas HydroDays workshop, sponsored by the USGS, the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Additional sponsors are: the National Cave and Karst Research Institute, the Edwards Aquifer Authority, San Antonio, Texas, and Beaver Water District, northwest Arkansas. The majority of funding for the proceedings preparation and workshop was provided by the USGS Groundwater Resources Program, National Cooperative Mapping Program, and the Regional Executives of the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, South Central and Rocky Mountain Areas. The University of Arkansas provided the rooms and facilities for the technical and poster presentations of the workshop, vans for the field trips, and sponsored the HydroDays banquet at the Savoy Experimental Watershed on Wednesday after the technical sessions.

Scientific Investigations Report

California State Waters Map Series: Offshore of Refugio Beach, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Refugio Beach map lies within the western Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and geodetic studies indicate that the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. Uplift rates (as much as 0.5 mm/yr) that are based on studies of onland marine terraces provide further evidence of significant shortening. The coastal zone of this map area lies at the steep flank of the Santa Ynez Mountains. The crest of the range, which lies about 8 km from the shoreline (north of the map area), has a maximum elevation of about 780 m. This area is largely open space, partly used for livestock grazing, with no significant towns or population centers. Highway 101 crosses the map area, adjacent to and within a few hundred meters of the shoreline. The most significant developments are the recreational state beaches at El Capitan Beach and Refugio Beach. The beaches are subject to erosion each winter during storm-wave attack, and then they undergo gradual recovery or accretion during the more gentle wave climate of the late spring, summer, and fall months. The Offshore of Refugio Beach map area lies in the west-central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by west-to-east transport of sediment from Point Arguello on the northwest to Hueneme and Mugu Canyons on the southeast. Longshore drift rates have been reported to range from about 160,000 to 800,000 tons/yr, averaging 400,000 tons/yr. Sediment supply to the western and central part of the littoral cell, including the map area, is mainly from relatively small coastal watersheds. Within the map area, these coastal watersheds include (from east to west) Cañada del Capitan, Tajiquas Creek, Arroyo Hondo, Cañada del Molino, and several unnamed canyons and creeks. The Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Rivers, the mouths of which are 80 to 120 km northwest of the map area, are not considered significant sediment sources because Point Conception and Point Arguello provide obstacles to downcoast sediment transport and also because much of their sediment load is trapped in dams. The Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, the mouths of which are about 70 km to the southeast of the map area, are not sediment sources for the map area. The offshore part of the map area consists of relatively flat and shallow continental shelf, which dips gently seaward (about 0.8° to 1.0°) so that water depths at the shelf break, roughly coincident with the California’s State Waters limit, are about 80 to 100 m. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from the south and southwest by offshore islands and banks. The shelf is underlain by variable amounts of upper Quaternary marine and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. In the map area, the shelf break is at depths of about 90 m and lies about 5.6 to 6.4 km offshore. Beyond the shelf break, the slope is steep (as much as about 7°) and unstable. Several submarine landslides, including the large (130 km 2 ) Goleta landslide complex, have been documented offshore of Goleta, a few kilometers east of the map area. This compound slump complex may have been initiated more than 200,000 year ago, but it also includes three recent failures that may have been generated 8,000 to 10,000 years ago. A local, 10-m-high tsunami may have been generated from these failure events. Small folds related to local faulting are superimposed on the homocline that makes up the south flank of the Santa Ynez Mountains. One of these superimposed anticlines hosts the Molino gas field, which was discovered in 1962 and subsequently developed through directional drilling from onshore wells. The Oligocene Sespe and Vaqueros Formations are the reservoirs in the Molino gas field, and the map area includes numerous seafloor hydrocarbon seeps. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft, unconsolidated sediment interspersed with isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Refugio Beach map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats, which lie primarily within the Shelf (continental shelf) but also partly within the Flank (basin flank or continental slope) megahabitats, primarily are composed of soft sediment interrupted by a few carbonate mounds. This homogeneous seafloor of sediment and low-relief bedrock provides promising habitat for groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms.

California

Owyhee River intracanyon lava flows: does the river give a dam?

Rivers carved into uplifted plateaus are commonly disrupted by discrete events from the surrounding landscape, such as lava flows or large mass movements. These disruptions are independent of slope, basin area, or channel discharge, and can dominate aspects of valley morphology and channel behavior for many kilometers. We document and assess the effects of one type of disruptive event, lava dams, on river valley morphology and incision rates at a variety of time scales, using examples from the Owyhee River in southeastern Oregon. Six sets of basaltic lava flows entered and dammed the river canyon during two periods in the late Cenozoic ca. 2 Ma–780 ka and 250–70 ka. The dams are strongly asymmetric, with steep, blunt escarpments facing up valley and long, low slopes down valley. None of the dams shows evidence of catastrophic failure; all blocked the river and diverted water over or around the dam crest. The net effect of the dams was therefore to inhibit rather than promote incision. Once incision resumed, most of the intracanyon flows were incised relatively rapidly and therefore did not exert a lasting impact on the river valley profile over time scales >10 6 yr. The net long-term incision rate from the time of the oldest documented lava dam, the Bogus Rim lava dam (≤1.7 Ma), to present was 0.18 mm/yr, but incision rates through or around individual lava dams were up to an order of magnitude greater. At least three lava dams (Bogus Rim, Saddle Butte, and West Crater) show evidence that incision initiated only after the impounded lakes filled completely with sediment and there was gravel transport across the dams. The most recent lava dam, formed by the West Crater lava flow around 70 ka, persisted for at least 25 k.y. before incision began, and the dam was largely removed within another 35 k.y. The time scale over which the lava dams inhibit incision is therefore directly affected by both the volume of lava forming the dam and the time required for sediment to fill the blocked valley. Variations in this primary process of incision through the lava dams could be influenced by additional independent factors such as regional uplift, drainage integration, or climate that affect the relative base level, discharge, and sediment yield within the watershed. By redirecting the river, tributaries, and subsequent lava flows to different parts of the canyon, lava dams create a distinct valley morphology of flat, broad basalt shelves capping steep cliffs of Tertiary sediment. This stratigraphy is conducive to landsliding and extends the effects of intracanyon lava flows on channel geomorphology beyond the lifetime of the dams.

Oregon

Stream-sediment geochemistry in mining-impacted streams: Prichard, Eagle, and Beaver Creeks, northern Coeur d'Alene mining district, northern Idaho

This report presents the results of one aspect of an integrated watershed-characterization study that was undertaken to assess the impacts of historical mining and milling of silver-lead-zinc ores on water and sediment composition and on aquatic biota in streams draining the northern part of the Coeur d'Alene Mining District in northern Idaho. We present the results of chemical analyses of 62 samples of streambed sediment, 19 samples of suspended sediment, 23 samples of streambank soil, and 29 samples of mine- and mill-related artificial- fill material collected from the drainages of Prichard, Eagle, and Beaver Creeks, all tributaries to the North Fork of the Coeur d'Alene River. All samples were sieved into three grain-size fractions (<0.063, 0.063-0.25, and 0.25-1.0 mm) and analyzed for 40 elements after four-acid digestion by inductively coupled plasma atomic-emission spectrometry and for mercury by continuous-flow cold-vapor atomic-absorption spectrometry in the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Denver, Colo. Historical mining of silver-lead-zinc ores in the headwater reaches of the Prichard Creek, Eagle Creek, and Beaver Creek drainages has resulted in enrichments of lead, zinc, mercury, arsenic, cadmium, silver, copper, cobalt, and, to a lesser extent, iron and manganese in streambed sediment. Using samples collected from the relatively unimpacted West Fork of Eagle Creek as representative of background compositions, streambed sediment in the vicinity of the mines and millsites has Pb and Zn contents of 20 to 100 times background values, decreasing to 2 to 5 times background values at the mouth of the each stream, 15 to 20 km downstream. Lesser enrichments (<10 times background values) of mercury and arsenic also are generally associated with, and decrease downstream from, historical silver-lead-zinc mining in the drainages. However, enrichments of arsenic and, to a lesser extent, mercury also are areally associated with the lode gold deposits along Prichard Creek near Murray, which were not studied here. Metal contents in samples of unfractionated suspended sediment collected during a high-flow event in April 2000 are generally similar to, but slightly higher than, those in the fine (<0.063-mm grain size) fraction of streambed sediment from the same sampling site. Although metal enrichment in streambed sediment typically begins adjacent to the mine portals and their associated mine-waste rock dumps, volumetrically larger inputs of metal-enriched materials were contributed by the ore-concentration millsites and their associated, more finely ground, more metal rich mill-tailings impoundments

Idaho

Perspectives on bay-delta science and policy

The State of Bay–Delta Science 2008 highlighted seven emerging perspectives on science and management of the Delta. These perspectives had important effects on policy and legislation concerning management of the Delta ecosystem and water exports. From the collection of papers that make up the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, we derive another seven perspectives that augment those published in 2008. The new perspectives address nutrient and contaminant concentrations in Delta waters, the failure of the Delta food web to support native species, the role of multiple stressors in driving species toward extinction, and the emerging importance of extreme events in driving change in the ecosystem and the water supply. The scientific advances that underpin these new perspectives were made possible by new measurement and analytic tools. We briefly discuss some of these, including miniaturized acoustic fish tags, sensors for monitoring of water quality, analytic techniques for disaggregating complex contaminant mixtures, remote sensing to assess levee vulnerability, and multidimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Despite these new tools and scientific insights, species conservation objectives for the Delta are not being met. We believe that this lack of progress stems in part from the fact that science and policy do not incorporate sufficiently long-term perspectives. Looking forward half a century was central to the Delta Visioning process, but science and policy have not embraced this conceptual breadth. We are also concerned that protection and enhancement of the unique cultural, recreational, natural resource, and agricultural values of the Delta as an evolving place, as required by the Delta Reform Act, has received no critical study and analysis. Adopting wider and longer science and policy perspectives immediately encourages recognition of the need for evaluation, analysis, and public discourse on novel conservation approaches. These longer and wider perspectives also encourage more attention to the opportunities provided by heavily invaded ecosystems. It is past time to turn scientific and policy attention to these issues.

California

Method to support Total Maximum Daily Load development using hydrologic alteration as a surrogate to address aquatic life impairment in New Jersey streams

More than 300 ambient monitoring sites in New Jersey have been identified by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) in its integrated water-quality monitoring and assessment report (that is, the 305(b) Report on general water quality and 303(d) List of waters that do not support their designated uses) as being impaired with respect to aquatic life; however, no unambiguous stressors (for example, nutrients or bacteria) have been identified. Because of the indeterminate nature of the broad range of possible impairments, surrogate measures that more holistically encapsulate the full suite of potential environmental stressors need to be developed. Streamflow alteration resulting from anthropogenic changes in the landscape is one such surrogate. For example, increases in impervious surface cover (ISC) commonly cause increases in surface runoff, which can result in “flashy” hydrology and other changes in the stream corridor that are associated with streamflow alteration. The NJDEP has indicated that methodologies to support a hydrologically based Total Maximum Daily Load (hydro-TMDL) need to be developed in order to identify hydrologic targets that represent a minimal percent deviation from a baseline condition (“minimally altered”) as a surrogate measure to meet criteria in support of designated uses. The primary objective of this study was to develop an applicable hydro-TMDL approach to address aquatic-life impairments associated with hydrologic alteration for New Jersey streams. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, identified 51 non- to moderately impaired gaged streamflow sites in the Raritan River Basin for evaluation. Quantile regression (QR) analysis was used to compare flow and precipitation records and identify baseline hydrographs at 37 of these sites. At sites without an appropriately long period of record (POR) or where a baseline hydrograph could not be identified with QR, a rainfall-runoff model was used to develop simulated baseline hydrographs. The hydro-TMDL approach provided an opportunity to evaluate proportional differences in flow attributes between observed and baseline hydrographs and to develop complementary flow-ecology response relations at a subset of Raritan River Basin sites where available flow and ecological information overlapped. The New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT) was used to determine the stream class of all 51 study sites by using either an observed or a simulated baseline hydrograph. Two New Jersey stream classes (A and C) were evaluated to help characterize the unique hydrology of the Raritan River Basin. In general, class C streams (1.99–40.7 square miles) had smaller drainage areas than class A streams (0.7–785 square miles). Many of the non-impaired and moderately impaired class A and C streams in the Raritan River Basin were found to have significant hydrologic alteration as indicated by numerous flow values that fell outside the established 25th-to-75th- and the more conservative 40th-to-60th-percentile boundaries. However, percent deviations for the class C streams (defined as moderately stable streams with moderately high base-flow contributions) were, in general, much larger than those for the class A streams (defined as semiflashy streams characterized by moderately low base flow). The greater deviations for class C streams in the hydro-TMDL assessments likely resulted from comparisons that were based solely on simulated baseline hydrographs, which were developed without considering any anthropogenic influences in the basin. In contrast, comparisons for many of the class A streams were made by using an observed baseline, which already includes an implicit level of ISC and other human influences on the landscape. By using the hydro-TMDL approach, numerous flow deviations were identified that were indicative of streams that are highly regulated by reservoirs or dams, streams that are affected by increasing amounts of surface runoff resulting from ISC, and streams that are affected by water abstraction (that is, groundwater or surface-water withdrawals used for agricultural and human supply). Eight of the reservoir- and (or) dam-affected sites showed flow deviations that are indicative of flow-managed systems. For example, indices that account for the timing and magnitude of high and low flows were often found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. In general, at regulated class C streams, annual summer low flows are arriving later and tend to be lower, and high flows are arriving earlier with higher magnitudes of longer duration. At class A streams, high and low flows are arriving later with an overall increase in discharge with respect to the prereservoir baseline conditions. The drainage basins of eight of the study sites had large values of ISC (>10 percent), most likely as a result of expanding urban development. In general, the magnitude and frequency of high flows at class A and C sites with high ISC are increasing and were commonly found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. Additionally, magnitudes of low flows are becoming lower and, although the timing of high flows was highly variable, low-flow events appeared to be arriving earlier than would be expected under normal low-flow conditions. Three of the study sites appeared to be affected by hydrologic changes associated with water abstraction. At these sites, the timing of flows appeared to be altered. For example, low flows tended to arrive earlier and high flows arrived later at two of the three sites. Additionally, the magnitude and duration of low flows were commonly less than the 25th-percentile value and the duration of high flows appeared to increase. A reduced set of hydrologic and ecological variables was used to develop univariate and multivariate flow-ecology response models for the aquatic-invertebrate assemblage. Many hydrologic variables accounting for the duration, magnitude, frequency, and timing of flows were significantly correlated with ecological response. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed to provide a more holistic evaluation of the combined effects of hydrologic alteration and to identify models with two or three hydrologic variables that account for a significant proportion of the variability in invertebrate-assemblage condition as represented by assemblage metric scores. MLR models, derived on the basis of hydrologic attributes, accounted for 35 to 75 percent of the variability in assemblage condition. The hydro-TMDL method developed herein for non- to moderately impaired Raritan River Basin streams utilizes a “surrogate” approach in place of the traditional “pollutant of concern” approach commonly used for TMDL development. Managers can use the results obtained by using the hydro-TMDL method to offset the effects of impervious-surface runoff and altered streamflow and to implement measures designed to achieve the necessary load reductions for the “pollutant of concern” (that is, percentage deviations of stream-class-specific flow-index values outside the established 25th-to-75th-percentile range). In this case, such deviations could represent all or a subset of the altered flow indices that prevent the stream from meeting designated aquatic-life criteria. This hydro-TMDL uses a reference, or attainment stream approach for developing the TMDL endpoint. That is, either observed or simulated baseline hydrographs were selected as appropriate reference conditions on the basis of results of QR analysis and watershed modeling procedures, respectively. For any stream in the Raritan River Basin evaluated as part of this study, the hydro-TMDL can be expressed as the greatest amount of deviation in flow a stream can exhibit without violating the stream’s designated aquatic-life criteria. Use of this surrogate approach is appropriate because flows that fall outside the established percentile ranges are ultimately a function of many anthropogenic modifications of the landscape, including the amount of stormwater runoff generated from impervious surfaces within a given basin, the presence of manmade structures designed to retain or divert water, the magnitude of ground- and surface-water abstraction, and the presence of water-supply processes implemented to support human needs. In addition, the stream-type-specific flow indices used as the basis for the hydro-TMDL approach are useful for representing the hydrologic conditions of class A and C streams/basins because they incorporate the full spectrum of flow conditions (very low to very high) that occur in the stream system over a long period of time, as well as those flow properties that change as a result of seasonal variation. Ultimately, an estimate of the maximum percentage flow reduction that could be allowed will be needed to address the aquatic-life impairments in many of the study streams in the Raritan River Basin and will be necessary for identifying appropriate target flow conditions for hydro-TMDL implementation. As described in this report, a target flow value equal to the 25th- or 75th-percentile flow rate could be selected as the point useful for setting specific hydrologic targets. This selection, however, is a management decision that could vary depending on the designated use of the stream or other regulatory factors (for example, water-supply protection, trout production, antidegradation policies, or special protection designations). In New Jersey streams where no unambiguous stressors can be identified, State monitoring agencies, such as the NJDEP, could choose to require the implementation of a flow-based TMDL that not only supports designated uses, but meets the regulatory requirements under the Clean Water Act, and represents a balance between water supply intended to meet human needs and the conservation of ecosystem integrity.

New Jersey

Water-quality and bottom-material characteristics of Cross Lake, Caddo Parish, Louisiana, 1997-99

Cross Lake is a shallow, monomictic lake that was formed in 1926 by the impoundment of Cross Bayou. The lake is the primary drinking-water supply for the City of Shreveport, Louisiana. In recent years, the lakeshore has become increasinginly urbanized. In addition, the land use of the watershed contributing runoff to Cross Lake has changed. Changes in land use and urbanization could affect the water chemistry and biology of the Lake. Water-quality data were collected at 10 sites on Cross Lake from February 1997 to February 1999. Water-column and bottom-material samples were collected. The water-column samples were collected at least four times per year. These samples included physical and chemical-related properties such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance; selected major inorganic ions; nutrients; minor elements; organic chemical constituents; and bacteria. Suspended-sediment samples were collected seven times during the sampling period. The bottom-material samples, which were collected once during the sampling period, were analyzed for selected minor elements and inorganic carbon. Aside from the nutrient-enriched condition of Cross Lake, the overall water-quality of Cross Lake is good. No primary Federal or State water-quality criteria were exceeded by any of the water-quality constituents analyzed for this report. Concentrations of major inorganic constituents, except iron and manganese, were low. Water from the lake is a sodium-bicarbonate type and is soft. Minor elements and organic compounds were present in low concentrations, many below detection limits. Nitrogen and phosphorus were the nutrients occurring in the highest concentrations. Nutrients were evenly distributed across the lake with no particular water-quality site indicating consistently higher or lower nutrient concentrations. No water samples analyzed for nitrate exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 milligrams per liter. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios calculated for Cross Lake, median values for all water-quality sites were within the nitrogen-limited range (less than or equal to 5). Historical Trophic State Indexes for Cross Lake classified the lake as eutrophic. Recent (1998-99) Trophic State Indexes classify Cross Lake as mesotrophic-eutrophic, which might indicate a recution in eutrophication. Sedimentation traps indicate that Cross Lake is filling at an average rate of 0.41 inches per year. Concentrations of fecal-coliform and streptococci bacteria generally were low. Fecal coliform was detected in higher concentrations than fecal streptococci. High bacterial concentrations were measured shortly after rainfall-runoff events, possibly washing bacteria from surrounding areas into the lake.

Louisiana

Postwildfire debris flows hazard assessment for the area burned by the 2011 Track Fire, northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado

In June 2011, the Track Fire burned 113 square kilometers in Colfax County, northeastern New Mexico, and Las Animas County, southeastern Colorado, including the upper watersheds of Chicorica and Raton Creeks. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from basins burned by the Track Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows at the outlets of selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of burn severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall to estimate the probability and volume of post-fire debris flows following the fire. In response to a design storm of 38 millimeters of rain in 30 minutes (10-year recurrence-interval), the probability of debris flow estimated for basins burned by the Track fire ranged between 2 and 97 percent, with probabilities greater than 80 percent identified for the majority of the tributary basins to Raton Creek in Railroad Canyon; six basins that flow into Lake Maloya, including the Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins; two tributary basins to Sugarite Canyon, and an unnamed basin on the eastern flank of the burned area. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from 30 cubic meters to greater than 100,000 cubic meters. The largest volumes (greater than 100,000 cubic meters) were estimated for Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins, which drain into Lake Maloya. The Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Ranking identifies the Segerstrom Creek and Swachheim Creek basins as having the highest probability of producing the largest debris flows. This finding indicates the greatest post-fire debris-flow impacts may be expected to Lake Maloya. In addition, Interstate Highway 25, Raton Creek and the rail line in Railroad Canyon, County road A-27, and State Highway 526 in Sugarite Canyon may also be affected where they cross drainages downstream from recently burned basins. Although this assessment indicates that a rather large debris flow (approximately 42,000 cubic meters) may be generated from the basin above the City of Raton (basin 9) in response to the design storm, the probability of such an event is relatively low (approximately 10 percent). Additional assessment is necessary to determine if the estimated volume of material is sufficient to travel into the City of Raton. In addition, even small debris flows may affect structures at or downstream from basin outlets and increase the threat of flooding downstream by damaging or blocking flood mitigation structures. The maps presented here may be used to prioritize areas where erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year window of vulnerability following the Track Fire.

Colorado;New Mexico

Development of a flood-warning system and flood-inundation mapping in Licking County, Ohio

Digital flood-inundation maps for selected reaches of South Fork Licking River, Raccoon Creek, North Fork Licking River, and the Licking River in Licking County, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration; Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the City of Newark and Village of Granville, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the following USGS streamgages: South Fork Licking River at Heath, Ohio (03145173); Raccoon Creek below Wilson Street at Newark, Ohio (03145534); North Fork Licking River at East Main Street at Newark, Ohio (03146402); and Licking River near Newark, Ohio (03146500). The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. As part of the flood-warning streamflow network, the USGS re-installed one streamgage on North Fork Licking River, and added three new streamgages, one each on North Fork Licking River, South Fork Licking River, and Raccoon Creek. Additionally, the USGS upgraded a lake-level gage on Buckeye Lake. Data from the streamgages and lake-level gage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected, established streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models then were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 10 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50 to 0.2-percent chance annual-exceedance probabilities for each of the 4 streamgages that correspond to the flood-inundation maps. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of Licking County showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. The USGS also developed an unsteady-flow model for a reach of South Fork Licking River for use by the NWS to enhance their ability to provide advanced flood warning in the region north of Buckeye Lake, Ohio. The unsteady-flow model was calibrated based on data from four flooding events that occurred from June 2008 to December 2011. Model calibration was approximate due to the fact that there were unmeasured inflows to the river that were not able to be considered during the calibration. Information on unmeasured inflow derived from NWS hydrologic models and additional flood-event data could enable the NWS to further refine the unsteady-flow model.

Ohio

Transport of nitrogen in a treated-wastewater plume to coastal discharge areas, Ashumet Valley, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Land disposal of treated wastewater from a treatment plant on the Massachusetts Military Reservation in operation from 1936 to 1995 has created a plume of contaminated groundwater that is migrating toward coastal discharge areas in the town of Falmouth, Massachusetts. To develop a better understanding of the potential impact of the treated-wastewater plume on coastal discharge areas, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Air Force Center for Engineering and the Environment, evaluated the fate of nitrogen (N) in the plume. Groundwater samples from two large sampling events in 1994 and 2007 were used to map the size and location of the plume, calculate the masses of nitrate-N and ammonium-N, evaluate changes in mass since cessation of disposal in 1995, and create a gridded dataset suitable for use in nitrogen-transport simulations. In 2007, the treated-wastewater plume was about 1,200 meters (m) wide, 30 m thick, and 7,700 m long and contained approximately 87,000 kilograms (kg) nitrate-N and 31,600 kg total ammonium-N. An analysis of previous studies and data from 1994 and 2007 sampling events suggests that most of biologically reactive nitrogen in the plume in 2007 will be transported to coastal discharge areas as either nitrate or ammonium with relatively little transformation to an environmentally nonreactive end product such as nitrogen gas. Nitrogen-transport simulations were conducted with a previously calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Mass-loaded particle tracking was used to simulate the advective transport of nitrogen to discharge areas (or receptors) along the coast. In the simulations, nonreactive transport (no mass loss in the aquifer) was assumed, providing an upper-end estimate of nitrogen loads to receptors. Simulations indicate that approximately 95 percent of the nitrate-N and 99 percent of the ammonium-N in the wastewater plume will eventually discharge to the Coonamessett River, Backus River, Green Pond, and Bournes River. Approximately 76 percent of the total nitrate-N mass in the plume will discharge to these receptors within 100 years of 2007; 90 and 94 percent will discharge within 200 and 500 years, respectively. Nitrate loads will peak within about 50 years at all of the major receptors. The highest peak loads will occur at the Coonamessett River (450 kg per year (kg/yr) nitrate-N) and the Backus River (350 kg/yr nitrate-N). Because of adsorption, travel times are longer for ammonium than for nitrate; approximately 5 percent of the total ammonium-N mass in the plume will discharge to receptors within 100 years; 46 and 81 percent will discharge within 200 and 500 years, respectively. The simulations indicate that the Coonamessett River will receive the largest cumulative nitrogen mass and the highest rate of discharge (load). Ongoing discharge to Ashumet Pond is relatively minor because most of the wastewater plume mass has already migrated downgradient from the pond. To evaluate the contribution of the nitrogen loads from the treated-wastewater plume to total nitrogen loads to the discharge areas, the simulated treated-wastewater plume loads were compared to steady-state nonpoint-source loads calculated by the Massachusetts Estuaries Project for 2005. Simulation results indicate that the total nitrogen loads from the treated-wastewater plume are much lower than corresponding steady-state nonpoint-source loads from the watersheds; peak plume loads are equal to 11 percent or less of the nonpoint-source loads.

Massachusetts

Occurrence and transport of nitrogen in the Big Sunflower River, northwestern Mississippi, October 2009-June 2011

The Big Sunflower River Basin, located within the Yazoo River Basin, is subject to large annual inputs of nitrogen from agriculture, atmospheric deposition, and point sources. Understanding how nutrients are transported in, and downstream from, the Big Sunflower River is key to quantifying their eutrophying effects on the Gulf. Recent results from two Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW models), which include the Big Sunflower River, indicate minimal losses of nitrogen in stream reaches typical of the main channels of major river systems. If SPARROW assumptions of relatively conservative transport of nitrogen are correct and surface-water losses through the bed of the Big Sunflower River are negligible, then options for managing nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico may be limited. Simply put, if every pound of nitrogen entering the Delta is eventually delivered to the Gulf, then the only effective nutrient management option in the Delta is to reduce inputs. If, on the other hand, it can be shown that processes within river channels of the Mississippi Delta act to reduce the mass of nitrogen in transport, other hydrologic approaches may be designed to further limit nitrogen transport. Direct validation of existing SPARROW models for the Delta is a first step in assessing the assumptions underlying those models. In order to characterize spatial and temporal variability of nitrogen in the Big Sunflower River Basin, water samples were collected at four U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located on the Big Sunflower River between October 1, 2009, and June 30, 2011. Nitrogen concentrations were generally highest at each site during the spring of the 2010 water year and the fall and winter of the 2011 water year. Additionally, the dominant form of nitrogen varied between sites. For example, in samples collected from the most upstream site (Clarksdale), the concentration of organic nitrogen was generally higher than the concentrations of ammonia and nitrate plus nitrite; conversely, at sites farther downstream (that is, at Sunflower and Anguilla), nitrate plus nitrite concentrations were generally higher than concentrations of organic nitrogen and ammonia. In addition to the routinely collected samples, water samples from the Big Sunflower River Basin were collected using a Lagrangian sampling scheme, which attempts to follow a single mass of water through time in order to determine how it changes through processing or other pathways as the water moves downstream. Lagrangian sampling was conducted five times during the study period: (1) April 8–21, 2010, (2) May 12–June 3, 2010, (3) June 15–July 1, 2010, (4) August 23–30, 2010, and (5) May 16–20, 2011. Streamflow conditions were variable for each sampling event because of input from local precipitation and irrigation return flow, and streamflow losses through the streambed. Streamflow and total nitrogen flux increased with drainage area, and the dominant form of nitrogen varied with drainage area size and temporally across sampling events. Results from each method indicate relatively conservative transport of nitrogen within the 160 miles between Clarksdale and Anguilla, providing further validation of the SPARROW models. Furthermore, these results suggest relatively conservative transport of nitrogen from the Big Sunflower River to the Gulf of Mexico and, therefore, imply a fairly close association of nutrient application and export from the Big Sunflower River Basin to the Mississippi River. However, within the Big Sunflower River Basin, two potential nitrogen sinks were identified and include the transport and potential transformation of nitrogen through the streambed and the sequestration and potential transformation of nitrogen above the drainage control structures downstream of Anguilla. By coupling these potential loss mechanisms with nitrogen transport dynamics, it may be possible to further reduce the amount of nitrogen leaving the Big Sunflower River Basin and ultimately arriving at the Gulf of Mexico.

Arkansas;Louisiana;Mississippi

Characterization of streamflow, suspended sediment, and nutrients entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River, Texas, May 2014–December 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board and the Galveston Bay Estuary Program, collected streamflow and water-quality data at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the lower Trinity River watershed from May 2014 to December 2015 to characterize and improve the current understanding of the quantity and quality of freshwater inflow entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River. Continuous streamflow records at four USGS streamflow-gaging stations were compared to quantify differences in streamflow magnitude between upstream and downstream reaches of the lower Trinity River. Water-quality conditions were characterized from discrete nutrient and sedi­ment samples collected over a range of hydrologic conditions at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08067252 Trinity River at Wallisville, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Wallisville site”), approximately 4 river miles upstream from where the Trinity River enters Galveston Bay. Based on streamflow records, annual mean outflow from Livingston Dam into the lower Trinity River was 2,240 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) in 2014 and 22,400 ft 3 /s in 2015, the second lowest and the highest, respectively, during the entire period of record (1966–2015). During this study, only about 54 percent of the total volume measured at upstream sites was accounted for at the Wallisville site as the Trinity River enters Galveston Bay. This difference in water volumes between upstream sites and the Wallisville site indicates that at high flows a large part of the volume released from Lake Livingston does not reach Galveston Bay through the main channel of the Trinity River. These findings indicate that water likely flows into wetlands and water bodies surrounding the main channel of the Trinity River before reaching the Wallisville site and is being stored or discharged through other channels that flow directly into Galveston Bay. To characterize suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in Trinity River inflow to Galveston Bay, a regression model was developed to estimate suspended-sediment concentrations by using acoustic backscatter data as a surrogate. The model yielded an adjusted coefficient of determination value of 0.92 and a root mean square error of 1.65 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The mean absolute percentage error between measured and estimated suspended-sediment concentration was 35 percent. During this study, estimated suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from 2 to 701 mg/L, with a mean of 97 mg/L. Suspended-sediment concentrations varied in response to changes in discharge, with peak suspended-sediment concentrations occurring 1 to 2 days before the peak discharge for each event. The total suspended-sediment load at the Wallisville site during May 2014–December 2015 was approximately 2,200,000 tons, with a minimum monthly suspended-sediment load of 100 tons in October 2014 and a maximum monthly load of 441,000 tons in November 2015. Results from nutrient samples collected at the Wallisville site indicate that total nitrogen and total phosphorus concen­trations fluctuated at a similar rate, with the highest nutrient concentrations occurring during periods of high flow corresponding to releases from Lake Livingston. The mean concen­trations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were approxi­mately 75 percent higher during high flow releases than during periods of low flow, overshadowing variations in nutrient concentrations caused by seasonality at the Wallisville site. Results from the study indicate nutrient delivery to Galveston Bay from the main channel of the Trinity River is likely controlled primarily by high-flow releases from Lake Livingston. For most samples collected at the Wallisville site, organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen; however, when discharge increased because of releases from Lake Livingston, the percentage of organic nitrogen typically decreased and the percentage of nitrate increased. The concentrations of total phosphorus also increased during high-flow events, likely as a result of suspended sediment within Lake Livingston releases and mobilization of sediment particles in the river channel and flood plain during these periods of high flow. The predominant source of phosphorous to Galveston Bay from the Trinity River is in particulate form closely tied to suspended-sediment concentrations. The changes in nutrient concentration and composition caused by releases from Lake Livingston during this study indicate the reservoir may play an important role in the delivery of nutrients into Galveston Bay. Further study is required to better understand the processes in Lake Livingston influencing the characteristics of nutrient and sediment inflow to Galveston Bay. With phosphorous concentrations correlated to suspended-sediment concentra­tions (coefficient of determination value of 0.75) and with the concentrations of nutrients changing as the discharge changes, the diversion of water and suspended sediment into surround­ing wetlands and channels outside of the main channel of the Trinity River may play a large role in regulating nutrient inputs into Galveston Bay.

Texas

Estimating Water Storage Capacity of Existing and Potentially Restorable Wetland Depressions in a Subbasin of the Red River of the North

Executive Summary Concern over flooding along rivers in the Prairie Pothole Region has stimulated interest in developing spatially distributed hydrologic models to simulate the effects of wetland water storage on peak river flows. Such models require spatial data on the storage volume and interception area of existing and restorable wetlands in the watershed of interest. In most cases, information on these model inputs is lacking because resolution of existing topographic maps is inadequate to estimate volume and areas of existing and restorable wetlands. Consequently, most studies have relied on wetland area to volume or interception area relationships to estimate wetland basin storage characteristics by using available surface area data obtained as a product from remotely sensed data (e.g., National Wetlands Inventory). Though application of areal input data to estimate volume and interception areas is widely used, a drawback is that there is little information available to provide guidance regarding the application, limitations, and biases associated with such approaches. Another limitation of previous modeling efforts is that water stored by wetlands within a watershed is treated as a simple lump storage component that is filled prior to routing overflow to a pour point or gaging station. This approach does not account for dynamic wetland processes that influence water stored in prairie wetlands. Further, most models have not considered the influence of human-induced hydrologic changes, such as land use, that greatly influence quantity of surface water inputs and, ultimately, the rate that a wetland basin fills and spills. The goals of this study were to (1) develop and improve methodologies for estimating and spatially depicting wetland storage volumes and interceptions areas and (2) develop models and approaches for estimating/simulating the water storage capacity of potentially restorable and existing wetlands under various restoration, land use, and climatic scenarios. To address these goals, we developed models and approaches to spatially represent storage volumes and interception areas of existing and potentially restorable wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin within Grant County, Minn. We then developed and applied a model to simulate wetland water storage increases that would result from restoring 25 and 50 percent of the farmed and drained wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin. The model simulations were performed during the growing season (May-October) for relatively wet (1993; 0.79 m of precipitation) and dry (1987; 0.40 m of precipitation) years. Results from the simulations indicated that the 25 percent restoration scenario would increase water storage by 21-24 percent and that a 50 percent scenario would increase storage by 34-38 percent. Additionally, we estimated that wetlands in the subbasin have potential to store 11.57-20.98 percent of the total precipitation that fell over the entire subbasin area (52,758 ha). Our simulation results indicated that there is considerable potential to enhance water storage in the subbasin; however, evaluation and calibration of the model is necessary before simulation results can be applied to management and planning decisions. In this report we present guidance for the development and application of models (e.g., surface area-volume predictive models, hydrology simulation model) to simulate wetland water storage to provide a basis from which to understand and predict the effects of natural or human-induced hydrologic alterations. In developing these approaches, we tried to use simple and widely available input data to simulate wetland hydrology and predict wetland water storage for a specific precipitation event or a series of events. Further, the hydrology simulation model accounted for land use and soil type, which influence surface water inputs to wetlands. Although information presented in this report is specific to the Mustinka subbasin, the approaches

Open-File Report

Evaluation of agricultural best-management practices in the Conestoga River headwaters, Pennsylvania: Hydrology of a small carbonate site near Ephrata, Pennsylvania, prior to implementation of nutrient management

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, investigated the effects of agricultural best-management practices on water quality in the Conestoga River headwaters watershed. This report describes environmental factors and the surface-water and ground-water quality of one 47.5-acre field site, Field-Site 2, from October 1984 through September 1986, prior to implementation of nutrient management. The site is partially terraced agricultural cropland underlain by carbonate rock. Twenty-seven acres are terraced, pipe-drained, and are under no-till cultivation. The remaining acreage is under minimum-till cultivation. Corn is the primary crop. The average annual rate of fertilization at the site was 480 pounds per acre of nitrogen and 110 pounds per acre of phosphorus. An unconfined limestone and dolomitic aquifer underlies the site, Depth to bedrock ranges from 5 to 30 feet below land surface. Estimated specific yields range from 0.05 to 0.10, specific capacities of wells range from less than 1 to about 20 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown, and estimates of transmissivities range from 10 to 10,000 square feet per day. Average ground-water recharge was estimated to be about 23 inches per year. The specific capacity and transmissivity data indicate that two aquifer regimes are present at the site. Wells drilled into dolomites in the eastern part of the site have larger specific capacities (averaging 20 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown) relative to specific capacities (averaging less than 1 gallon per minute per foot of drawdown) of wells drilled into limestones in the western part of the site. Median concentrations of soil-soluble nitrate and soluble phosphorus in the top 4 feet of silt- or silty-clay-loam soil ranged from 177 to 329 and 8.5 to 35 pounds per acre, respectively. Measured runoff from the pipe-drained terraces ranged from 10 to 48,000 cubic feet and was 1.7 and 0.8 percent, respectively, of the 1985 and 1986 annual precipitation. An estimated 90,700 cubic feet of surface runoff carried 87 pounds to total nitrogen and 37 pounds of total phosphorus, or less that 0.65 percent of the amount of either nutrient applied during the study period. Rainfall on the snow-covered, frozen ground produced more that half of the runoff and nitrogen and phosphorus loads measured in pipe-drained runoff. Graphical and regression analyses of surface runoff suggest that (1) mean-storm concentrations of total nitrogen species and total phosphorus decreased with increasing time between a runoff event and the last previous nutrient application, and (2) mean total-phosphorus concentrations approached a baseline value (estimated at 2 to 5 milligrams per liter for total-phosphorus concentrations) after several months without nutrient applications. Dissolved nitrate concentrations in ground water in wells unaffected by an on-site ammonia spill ranged from 7.4 to 100 milligrams per liter. Average annual additions and removals of nitrogen were estimated. Nitrogen was added to the site by applications of manure and commercial fertilizer nitrogen, as well as by precipitation and ground water entering across the western site boundary. These sources of nitrogen accounted for 95, 3, 1, and 1 percent, respectively, of estimated additions. Nitrogen was removed from the site in harvested crops, by ground-water discharge, by volatilization, and in surface runoff, which accounted for 42, 28, 29, and less than 1 percent, respectively, of estimated removals.

Pennsylvania

Measured and simulated runoff to the lower Charles River, Massachusetts, October 1999–September 2000

The lower Charles River, the water body between the Watertown Dam and the New Charles River Dam, is an important recreational resource for the Boston, Massachusetts, metropolitan area, but impaired water quality has affected its use. The goal of making this resource fishable and swimmable requires a better understanding of combined-sewer-overflow discharges, non-combined-sewer-overflow stormwater runoff, and constituent loads. This report documents the modeling effort used to calculate non-combined-sewer-overflow runoff to the lower Charles River. During the 2000 water year, October 1, 1999–September 30, 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey collected precipitation data at Watertown Dam and compiled data from five other precipitation gages in or near the watershed. In addition, surface-water discharge data were collected at eight sites—three relatively homogenous land-use sites, four major tributary sites, and the Charles River at Watertown Dam, which is the divide between the upper and lower watersheds. The precipitation and discharge data were used to run and calibrate Stormwater Management Models developed for the three land-use subbasins (single-family, multi-family, and commercial), and the two tributary subbasins (Laundry and Faneuil Brooks). These calibrated models were used to develop a sixth model to simulate 54 ungaged outfalls to the lower Charles River. Models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey at gaged sites were calibrated with up to 24 storms. Each model was evaluated by comparing simulated discharge against measured discharge for all storms with appreciable precipitation and reliable discharge data. The model-fit statistics indicated that the models generally were well calibrated to peak discharge and runoff volumes. The model fit of the commercial land-use subbasin was not as well calibrated compared to the other models because the measured flows appear to be affected by variable conditions not represented in the model. A separate Stormwater Management Model of the Stony Brook Subbasin previously developed by others was evaluated with the newly collected data from this study; this model had a model fit comparable to the models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total annual runoff to the lower Charles River during the 2000 water year, not including contributions from combined-sewer-overflows except from the Stony Brook Subbasin, was 16,500 million cubic feet; 92 percent of the inflow was from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, 3 percent was from the Stony Brook Subbasin, 2 percent was from the Muddy River Subbasin, and less than 1 percent was from the combined inflows of Laundry and Faneuil Brooks. The remaining ungaged drainage area contributed about 2 percent of the total annual inflow to the lower Charles River. Excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, total annual runoff to the lower Charles River was 1,240 million cubic feet; 39 percent was from the Stony Brook Subbasin, 27 percent was from the Muddy River, which includes runoff that drains to the Muddy River conduit, 7 percent was from the Laundry Brook Subbasin, and 4 percent was from the Faneuil Brook Subbasin. Flow from the ungaged areas composed about 23 percent of the total annual inflow to the lower Charles River, excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam. Runoff to the lower Charles River was calculated for two design storms representing a 3-month and a 1-year event, 1.84 and 2.79 inches of total rainfall, respectively. These simulated discharges were provided to the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority for use in a receiving-water model of the lower Charles River. Total storm runoff to the lower Charles River was 111 and 257 million cubic feet for the 3-month and 1-year storms, respectively. Excluding discharge from the Charles River above Watertown Dam, total runoff to the lower Charles River was 30 and 53 million cubic feet for the 3-month and 1-year storms, respectively. Runoff from the various tributary areas for the design storms was about in the same proportion as that for the annual runoff.

Massachusetts