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USGS2020

The influence of snow cover, air temperature, and groundwater flow on the active-layer thermal regime of Arctic hillslopes drained by water tracks

Permafrost in Arctic watersheds limits soil biological activity to a thin, seasonally thawed active layer that contributes water to streams. In many hillslopes, relatively wet drainage features called water tracks have distinct freeze-thaw patterns that affect groundwater flow and storage, and thus the export of heat and solutes to Arctic streams. This study uses groundwater flow and energy transport models to examine potential controls on the timing and duration of freeze–thaw conditions and the magnitude of temperature fluctuations within water tracks and their adjacent hillslopes. The simulated length of the active-layer thaw season varies by 1 month over the range of snow-cover and mean annual air-temperature scenarios simulated. The timing and duration of freezing is particularly sensitive to depth and duration of snow cover. Thus, the deeper snowpack covers that can accumulate in water tracks contribute to their more persistent thaw conditions and their ability to conduct groundwater downslope. A three-dimensional simulation shows that during the summer thaw season, the water track captures groundwater laterally from half way across the hillslope. The models presented here elucidate key mechanisms driving small-scale variation in the active-layer thermal regime of tundra hillslopes, which may be responsible for changes in drainage-network geometry and Arctic biogeochemical fluxes under a warming climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Detection and quantification of preferential flow using artificial rainfall with multiple experimental approaches

Preferential flow in the unsaturated zone strongly influences important hydrologic processes, such as infiltration, contaminant transport, and aquifer recharge. Because it entails various combinations of physical processes arising from the interactions of water, air, and solid particles in a porous medium, preferential flow is highly complex. Major research is needed to improve the ability to understand, quantify, model, and predict preferential flow. Toward a solution, a combination of diverse experimental measurements at multiple scales, from laboratory scale to mesoscale, has been implemented to detect and quantify preferential paths in carbonate and karstic unsaturated zones. This involves integration of information from (1) core samples, by means of mercury intrusion porosimeter, evaporation, quasi-steady centrifuge and dewpoint potentiometer laboratory methods, to investigate the effect of pore-size distribution on hydraulic characteristics and the potential activation of preferential flow, (2) field plot experiments with artificial sprinkling, to visualize preferential pathways related to secondary porosity, through use of geophysical measurements, and (3) mesoscale evaluation of field data through episodic master recession modeling of episodic recharge. This study demonstrates that preferential flow processes operate from core scale to two different field scales and impact on the qualitative and quantitative groundwater status, by entailing fast flow with subsequent effects on recharge rate and contaminant mobilizing. The presented results represent a rare example of preferential flow detection and numerical modeling by reducing underestimation of the recharge and contamination risks.

Bari↗

USGS2016

A microbial arsenic cycle in sediments of an acidic mine impoundment: Herman Pit, Clear Lake, California

The involvement of prokaryotes in the redox reactions of arsenic occurring between its +5 [arsenate; As(V)] and +3 [arsenite; As(III)] oxidation states has been well established. Most research to date has focused upon circum-neutral pH environments (e.g., freshwater or estuarine sediments) or arsenic-rich “extreme” environments like hot springs and soda lakes. In contrast, relatively little work has been conducted in acidic environments. With this in mind we conducted experiments with sediments taken from the Herman Pit, an acid mine drainage impoundment of a former mercury (cinnabar) mine. Due to the large adsorptive capacity of the abundant Fe(III)-rich minerals, we were unable to initially detect in solution either As(V) or As(III) added to the aqueous phase of live sediment slurries or autoclaved controls, although the former consumed added electron donors (i.e., lactate, acetate, hydrogen), while the latter did not. This prompted us to conduct further experiments with diluted slurries using the live materials from the first incubation as inoculum. In these experiments we observed reduction of As(V) to As(III) under anoxic conditions and reduction rates were enhanced by addition of electron donors. We also observed oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in oxic slurries as well as in anoxic slurries amended with nitrate. We noted an acid-tolerant trend for sediment slurries in the cases of As(III) oxidation (aerobic and anaerobic) as well as for anaerobic As(V) reduction. These observations indicate the presence of a viable microbial arsenic redox cycle in the sediments of this extreme environment, a result reinforced by the successful amplification of arsenic functional genes ( aioA , and arrA ) from these materials.

California↗

USGS2006

Multiphase, multicomponent parameter estimation for liquid and vapor fluxes in deep arid systems using hydrologic data and natural environmental tracers

Multiphase, multicomponent numerical models of long-term unsaturated-zone liquid and vapor movement were created for a thick alluvial basin at the Nevada Test Site to predict present-day liquid and vapor fluxes. The numerical models are based on recently developed conceptual models of unsaturated-zone moisture movement in thick alluvium that explain present-day water potential and tracer profiles in terms of major climate and vegetation transitions that have occurred during the past 10 000 yr or more. The numerical models were calibrated using borehole hydrologic and environmental tracer data available from a low-level radioactive waste management site located in a former nuclear weapons testing area. The environmental tracer data used in the model calibration includes tracers that migrate in both the liquid and vapor phases (δD, δ 18 O) and tracers that migrate solely as dissolved solutes (Cl), thus enabling the estimation of some gas-phase as well as liquid-phase transport parameters. Parameter uncertainties and correlations identified during model calibration were used to generate parameter combinations for a set of Monte Carlo simulations to more fully characterize the uncertainty in liquid and vapor fluxes. The calculated background liquid and vapor fluxes decrease as the estimated time since the transition to the present-day arid climate increases. However, on the whole, the estimated fluxes display relatively little variability because correlations among parameters tend to create parameter sets for which changes in some parameters offset the effects of others in the set. Independent estimates on the timing since the climate transition established from packrat midden data were essential for constraining the model calibration results. The study demonstrates the utility of environmental tracer data in developing numerical models of liquid- and gas-phase moisture movement and the importance of considering parameter correlations when using Monte Carlo analysis to characterize the uncertainty in moisture fluxes.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS2021

Clothianidin decomposition in Missouri wetland soils

Neonicotinoid pesticides can persist in soils for extended time periods; however, they also have a high potential to contaminate ground and surface waters. Studies have reported negative effects associated with neonicotinoids and nontarget taxa, including aquatic invertebrates, pollinating insect species, and insectivorous birds. This study evaluated factors associated with clothianidin (CTN) degradation and sorption in Missouri wetland soils to assess the potential for wetland soils to mitigate potential environmental risks associated with neonicotinoids. Solid-to-solution partition coefficients ( K d ) for CTN sorption to eight wetland soils were determined via single-point sorption experiments, and sorption isotherm experiments were conducted using the two most contrasting soils. Clothianidin degradation was determined under oxic and anoxic conditions over 60 d. Degradation data were fit to zero- and first-order kinetic decay models to determine CTN half-life ( t 0.5 ). Sorption results indicated CTN sorption to wetland soil was relatively weak (average K d , 3.58 L kg –1 ); thus, CTN has the potential to be mobile and bioavailable within wetland soils. However, incubation results showed anoxic conditions significantly increased CTN degradation rates in wetland soils (anoxic average t 0.5 , 27.2 d; oxic average t 0.5 , 149.1 d). A significant negative correlation was observed between anoxic half-life values and soil organic C content ( r 2 = .782; p = .046). Greater CTN degradation rates in wetland soils under anoxic conditions suggest that managing wetlands to facilitate anoxic conditions could mitigate CTN presence in the environment and reduce exposure to nontarget organisms.

Missouri↗

USGS2015

A rapid estimation of near field tsunami run-up

Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori.However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here, we show how to predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution, that was specifically designed for subduction zones with a well defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here, run-up models are computed for: The 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua Earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú Earthquake, the 2003Mw 8.3 Hokkaido Earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú Earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. The maximum run-up estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Perú (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster run-up information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of pre-modeled seismic sources.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2019

Inversion of airborne EM data with an explicit choice of prior model

Inversion of airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data is an under-determined inverse problem, in that infinitely many resistivity models exist that will be able to explain the observed data, within measurement errors. Therefore, additional information or constraints must be taken into account to solve the inverse problem. In deterministic approaches, the goal is to locate one optimal model that can be obtained by using some form of smoothness constraints implied through a number of regularization choices. This model, however, will not necessarily represent realistic geological features. Probabilistic methods offer an alternative in which the solution is not one model, but a collection of models, whose variability represents the uncertainty. The probabilistic approach can also rely on implicit model assumptions, representing prior information (a type of regularization information) that may or may not be consistent with the actual available information. Here, we present an approach for AEM inversion in which the prior model is explicitly chosen by a user, preferably selected based on actual prior information available and then integrated with AEM data using a general Monte Carlo based sampling approach. This approach leads to a new workflow to AEM inversion in which geological prior information is independently and explicitly chosen before inversion is carried out. The main benefit of this approach is that each model obtained will, by construction, be consistent with prior (geological) information as well as geophysical data. Through examples based on synthetic and real AEM data, we will demonstrate the methodology, not least that the choice of prior information cannot be avoided: Either it is done explicitly, or it will be chosen implicitly by the choice of method used to invert the AEM data.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS1993

Variations in aqueous sulfate concentrations at Panola Mountain, Georgia

Aqueous sulfate concentrations were measured in incident precipitation, canopy throughfall, stemflow, soil water, groundwater, and streamwater at three locations in a 41 ha forested watershed at Panola Mountain State Park in the Georgia Piedmont. To evaluate the variations in sulfate concentrations, sampling intensity was increased during storms by automated collection of surface water and by incremental subsampling of rainfall, throughfall, and soil solution. Canopy throughfall, stemflow, and runoff from a bedrock outcrop in the watershed headwaters were enriched in sulfate relative to incident precipitation due to washoff of dry deposition that accumulated between storms. Soil waters collected from zero-tension lysimeters at 15 cm and 50 cm below land surface also were enriched in sulfate relative to precipitation, groundwater and streamwater. Sulfate concentrations in groundwater and in streamwater at base flow varied in an annual sinusoidal pattern with winter maxima and summer minima. Stream discharge and groundwater levels varied in a similar annual pattern in phase with the sulfate concentrations. The temporal variability of sulfate concentrations at most groundwater sites was small relative to the spatial variability among groundwater sites. Streamwater sulfate concentrations during base flow were controlled by low-sulfate groundwater discharge. As flow increased, an increasing proportion of shallow, high-sulfate groundwater and soil water contributed to streamflow. The dominant control on stream sulfate concentration shifted from sulfate retention by adsorption in the mineral soil at base flow to mobilization of sulfate from the upper, organic-rich horizons of the soil at high flow.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2019

2D micromodel study of clogging behavior of fine-grained particles associated with gas hydrate production in NGHP-02 gas hydrate reservoir sediments

Fine-grained particles (fines) commonly coexist with coarse-grained sediments that host gas hydrate. These fines can be mobilized by liquid and gas flow during gas hydrate production. Once mobilized, fines can clog pore throats and reduce reservoir permeability. Even where particle sizes are smaller than pore-throat sizes, clogs can form due to clusters of fines. For certain types of fines, particularly swelling clays, cluster sizes depend on pore-fluid chemistry, which changes as pore-fluid freshens during gas hydrate dissociation. Fines can also be concentrated by a moving gas/liquid interface, increasing the chances of pore-throat clogging regardless of fines type. To test the relative significance of these clogging mechanisms, 2D micromodel experiments have been conducted with different pore-throat widths (20, 40, 60 and 100 m), single-phase pore-fluids (deionized water and 2M-sodium-chloride solution), and moving gas/liquid interfaces on specimens from Sites NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16 (NGHP-02: National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02) as well as a selection of pure fines (silica silt, mica, calcium carbonate, diatoms, kaolin, and bentonite). Clogging depended on the ratio of particle-to-pore throat size, and also on pore-fluid chemistry because the pore-fluid chemistry changes effectively increased or decreased the fines cluster size relative to the pore-throat width. These interactions can be predicted based on the fines electrical sensitivity (defined by Jang and Santamarina, 2016). The fine-grained sediment component (grain size < 75 m) from the primary gas hydrate reservoir layers at Sites NGHP-02-09 and -16 show clogging via blocking or size exclusion (sieving) due to the large particles. Clogs also formed due to bridging or blocking by clusters of the smaller particles. Clogging generally occurred for pore-water sediment concentrations so low (0.2% by mass or less), that it was difficult to resolve the enhanced clogging in the presence of the gas/liquid meniscus.

Bay of Bengal↗

USGS2004

Hydraulic and geochemical framework of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory vadose zone

Questions of major importance for subsurface contaminant transport at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) include (i) travel times to the aquifer, both average or typical values and the range of values to be expected, and (ii) modes of contaminant transport, especially sorption processes. The hydraulic and geochemical framework within which these questions are addressed is dominated by extreme heterogeneity in a vadose zone and aquifer consisting of interbedded basalts and sediments. Hydraulically, major issues include diverse possible types of flow pathways, extreme anisotropy, preferential flow, combined vertical and horizontal flow, and temporary saturation or perching. Geochemically, major issues include contaminant mobility as influenced by redox conditions, the concentration of organic and inorganic complexing solutes and other local variables, the interaction with infiltrating waters and with the contaminant source environment, and the aqueous speciation of contaminants such as actinides. Another major issue is the possibility of colloid transport, which inverts some of the traditional concepts of mobility, as sorbed contaminants on mobile colloids may be transported with ease compared with contaminants that are not sorbed. With respect to the goal of minimizing aquifer concentrations of contaminants, some characteristics of the vadose zone are essentially completely favorable. Examples include the great thickness (200 m) of the vadose zone, and the presence of substantial quantities of fine sediments that can retard contaminant transport both hydraulically and chemically. Most characteristics, however, have both favorable and unfavorable aspects. For example, preferential flow, as promoted by several notable features of the vadose zone at the INEEL, can provide fast, minimally sorbing pathways for contaminants to reach the aquifer easily, but it also leads to a wide dispersal of contaminants in a large volume of subsurface material, thus increasing the opportunity for dilution and sorption.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS2016

RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style

Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 M W 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained by Scenario 1, with a range of 26°. We draw two main conclusions from this study. (1) Station distribution impacts our ability to constrain RMTs using waveform time-series; however, in some tectonic settings, faulting style also plays a significant role and (2) increasing station density and data quantity (both the number of stations and the number of individual channels) does not necessarily improve RMT constraint. These results may be useful when organizing future seismic deployments (e.g. by concentrating stations in alignment with anticipated nodal planes), and in computing RMTs, either by guiding a more rigorous data selection process for input data or informing variable weighting among the selected data (e.g. by eliminating the transverse component when strike-slip mechanisms are expected).

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2011

Misidentification of freshwater mussel species (Bivalvia:Unionidae): Contributing factors, management implications, and potential solutions

Surveys of freshwater mussel populations are used frequently to inform conservation decisions by providing information about the status and distribution of species. It is generally accepted that not all mussels or species are collected during surveys, and incomplete detection of individuals and species can bias data and can affect inferences. However, considerably less attention has been given to the potential effects of species misidentification. To evaluate the prevalence of and potential reasons for species misidentification, we conducted a laboratory-based identification exercise and quantified the relationships between mussel species characteristics, observer experience, and misidentification rate. We estimated that misidentification was fairly common, with rates averaging 27% across all species and ranging from 0 to 56%, and was related to mussel shell characteristics and observer experience. Most notably, species with shell texturing were 6.09× less likely than smooth-shelled species to be misidentified. Misidentification rates declined with observer experience, but for many species the risk of misidentification averaged >10% even for observers with moderate levels of experience (5–6 y). In addition, misidentification rates among observers showed substantial variability after controlling for experience. Our results suggest that species misidentification may be common in field surveys of freshwater mussels and could potentially bias estimates of population status and trends. Misidentification rates possibly could be reduced through use of regional workshops, testing and certification programs, and the availability of archived specimens and tissue samples in museum collections.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

USGS2012

Ultraviolet irradiation effects incorporation of nitrate and nitrite nitrogen into aquatic natural organic matter

One of the concerns regarding the safety and efficacy of ultraviolet radiation for treatment of drinking water and wastewater is the fate of nitrate, particularly its photolysis to nitrite. In this study, 15 N NMR was used to establish for the first time that UV irradiation effects the incorporation of nitrate and nitrite nitrogen into aquatic natural organic matter (NOM). Irradiation of 15 N-labeled nitrate in aqueous solution with an unfiltered medium pressure mercury lamp resulted in the incorporation of nitrogen into Suwannee River NOM (SRNOM) via nitrosation and other reactions over a range of pH from approximately 3.2 to 8.0, both in the presence and absence of bicarbonate, confirming photonitrosation of the NOM. The major forms of the incorporated label include nitrosophenol, oxime/nitro, pyridine, nitrile, and amide nitrogens. Natural organic matter also catalyzed the reduction of nitrate to ammonia on irradiation. The nitrosophenol and oxime/nitro nitrogens were found to be susceptible to photodegradation on further irradiation when nitrate was removed from the system. At pH 7.5, unfiltered irradiation resulted in the incorporation of 15 N-labeled nitrite into SRNOM in the form of amide, nitrile, and pyridine nitrogen. In the presence of bicarbonate at pH 7.4, Pyrex filtered (cutoff below 290–300 nm) irradiation also effected incorporation of nitrite into SRNOM as amide nitrogen. We speculate that nitrosation of NOM from the UV irradiation of nitrate also leads to production of nitrogen gas and nitrous oxide, a process that may be termed photo-chemodenitrification. Irradiation of SRNOM alone resulted in transformation or loss of naturally abundant heterocyclic nitrogens.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2020

Perceived constraints and negotiations to trout fishing in Georgia based on angler specialization level

Anglers face constraints that influence participation and dropout rates. Some recreational anglers may be able to negotiate constraints by altering the timing or frequency of participation, acquiring new skills, or modifying nonrecreational aspects such as family or work responsibilities. We consider data collected via a mail survey from Georgia-resident trout license holders to identify both perceived constraints and strategies used to negotiate them. To capture variation among anglers, survey responses were grouped by level of angler specialization using K -means cluster analysis, which resulted in a three-cluster solution of most, moderately, and least specialized anglers. Analyses of variance were used to detect potential differences among the three specialization clusters. Tests revealed that the least specialized anglers experienced constraints more intensely than the most or moderately specialized anglers. Likewise, least specialized anglers were less able to negotiate constraints when compared to the most or moderately specialized anglers. However, the least specialized anglers used negotiation strategies involving overcoming perceived lack of skill more intensely than their counterparts. The most intensely experienced constraints overall were lack of time due to work or family obligations and distance to Georgia’s trout waters from home. The most intensely used negotiation strategies overall were “learn to enjoy being outside and stress less about catching fish” and “encourage family or friends to go fishing with me.” This research benefits fishery managers by providing a method of identifying angling groups that perceive more constraints and are less likely to overcome these constraints through constraint negotiation strategies. With this information, managers may choose to tailor efforts towards reducing constraints for angling groups that have low participation and may drop out of the activity all together.

Georgia↗

USGS2018

Designing a protected area to safeguard imperiled species from urbanization

Reserve design is a process that can address ecological, social, and political factors to identify parcels of land needed to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Acquisition of parcels for a large terrestrial reserve is difficult because it typically occurs over a long timeframe and thus invokes consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. In central Florida, a new protected area, the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge, has been authorized by the United States Government. The new refuge will host important threatened and endangered species and habitats, as well as be located to allow for species adaptation from climate change impacts. For this study we combined habitat objectives defined by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and projections from two urbanization models to provide guidance for Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge design. We used Marxan with Zones to find near-optimal solutions for protecting explicit amounts of five target habitats. We identified parcels for inclusion into the reserve design that the model allocated among two zones representing different methods of protection: fee-simple purchase (up to 20,234 hectares authorized by the United States government), and conservation easement agreements (up to 40,469 hectares authorized). As expected, for all scenarios we found an increase in costs as the proportion of fee-simple purchases was increased, reflecting the lesser cost of easements, but the number of parcels required for protection differed little among scenarios. The two urbanization models showed considerable agreement over which habitat patches were not forecast to be developed, and showed some agreement over which parcels might be developed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may benefit from focusing on parcels that are selected frequently by our analyses under both urban scenarios because these parcels are more likely to be in areas where urbanization threats and demand for land is reduced. The reserve designs we generated met U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service habitat goals within fee and easement zone restrictions, and we found reserve configurations that fell well below the mandated size limit.

Florida↗

USGS2005

Coupled inverse modeling of vadose zone water, heat, and solute transport: Calibration constraints, parameter nonuniqueness, and predictive uncertainty

In this study, an inverse methodology is presented and used to evaluate the effect that calibration of a synthetic artificial recharge model, constrained by different combinations of measurements (pressure head, temperature, and concentration), has on estimated vadose zone model parameter-value nonuniqueness and predictive water, heat, and solute transport uncertainty. Several findings are arrived at following model calibration and predictive analysis. First, composite scaled sensitivities revealed that all calibration measurement combinations contributed to the estimation of 30 water, heat, and solute transport parameters by inverting a set of vadose zone transport equations that were coupled explicitly through dependent variables and implicitly through parameters and fluid properties. Second, despite excellent model quality and perfect match of simulated-to-measured dependent field variables, the limitations in information content of field measurements used to constrain the calibration process promoted correlation among parameters; correlation among parameters promoted parameter nonuniqueness; and parameter nonuniqueness promoted predictive uncertainty. Consequently, simulations by transport models calibrated against field information represent a single realization associated with some quantifiable range of predictive uncertainty. Third, a primary reduction in uncertainty was achieved by increasing the number of calibration-constraint measurements, but reductions in uncertainty appeared restricted implying a practical limit to parameterization detail. Fourth, for a fixed number of measurements, a less prominent reduction in the range of predictive uncertainty could be realized through selective use of measurement types to constrain the calibration process. Therefore, field measurement types used to constrain the calibration process should be matched to target predictions. Fifth, because correlation among parameters contributes to predictive uncertainty, it may be possible to further reduce predictive uncertainty by estimating parameters that also minimize the largest eigenvalue in the normalized eigenvector matrix.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2011

Estimates of stress drop and crustal tectonic stress from the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, earthquake: Implications for fault strength

The great 27 February 2010 M w 8.8 earthquake off the coast of southern Chile ruptured a ∼600 km length of subduction zone. In this paper, we make two independent estimates of shear stress in the crust in the region of the Chile earthquake. First, we use a coseismic slip model constrained by geodetic observations from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS to derive a spatially variable estimate of the change in static shear stress along the ruptured fault. Second, we use a static force balance model to constrain the crustal shear stress required to simultaneously support observed fore‐arc topography and the stress orientation indicated by the earthquake focal mechanism. This includes the derivation of a semianalytic solution for the stress field exerted by surface and Moho topography loading the crust. We find that the deviatoric stress exerted by topography is minimized in the limit when the crust is considered an incompressible elastic solid, with a Poisson ratio of 0.5, and is independent of Young's modulus. This places a strict lower bound on the critical stress state maintained by the crust supporting plastically deformed accretionary wedge topography. We estimate the coseismic shear stress change from the Maule event ranged from −6 MPa (stress increase) to 17 MPa (stress drop), with a maximum depth‐averaged crustal shear‐stress drop of 4 MPa. We separately estimate that the plate‐driving forces acting in the region, regardless of their exact mechanism, must contribute at least 27 MPa trench‐perpendicular compression and 15 MPa trench‐parallel compression. This corresponds to a depth‐averaged shear stress of at least 7 MPa. The comparable magnitude of these two independent shear stress estimates is consistent with the interpretation that the section of the megathrust fault ruptured in the Maule earthquake is weak, with the seismic cycle relieving much of the total sustained shear stress in the crust.

Maule↗

USGS2009

Stratigraphic controls on seawater intrusion and implications for groundwater management, Dominguez Gap area of Los Angeles, California, USA

Groundwater pumping has led to extensive water-level declines and seawater intrusion in coastal Los Angeles, California (USA). A SUTRA-based solute-transport model was developed to test the hydraulic implications of a sequence-stratigraphic model of the Dominguez Gap area and to assess the effects of water-management scenarios. The model is two-dimensional, vertical and follows an approximate flow line extending from the Pacific Ocean through the Dominguez Gap area. Results indicate that a newly identified fault system can provide a pathway for transport of seawater and that a stratigraphic boundary located between the Bent Spring and Upper Wilmington sequences may control the vertical movement of seawater. Three 50-year water-management scenarios were considered: (1) no change in water-management practices; (2) installation of a slurry wall; and (3) raising inland water levels to 7.6 m above sea level. Scenario 3 was the most effective by reversing seawater intrusion. The effects of an instantaneous 1-m sea-level rise were also tested using water-management scenarios 1 and 3. Results from two 100-year simulations indicate that a 1-m sea-level rise may accelerate seawater intrusion for scenario 1; however, scenario 3 remains effective for controlling seawater intrusion.

Hydrogeology Journal↗