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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Does what go up also come down? Using a recruitment model to balance alewife nutrient import and export

Migrating adult Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are a source of marine-derived nutrients on the East Coast of North America, importing nitrogen and phosphorus into freshwater habitats. Juvenile migrants subsequently transport freshwater-derived nutrients into the ocean. We developed a deterministic model to explore the theoretical nutrient dynamics of Alewife migrations at differing spawner abundances. Net nutrient balance was calculated relative to these abundances along the spawner–recruit curve. The ecological consequences of these subsidies in a particular watershed depend on the magnitude of adult escapement relative to the habitat’s carrying capacity for juveniles. At low escapement levels and assuming complete habitat access, the number of recruits produced per spawner was high and juvenile nutrient export dominated. At high escapement levels, fewer recruits were produced per spawner because recruitment is density dependent. As a result, adult nutrient import dominated. At varying levels of freshwater productivity and fisheries mortality for upstream spawners, this trend remained the same while the magnitude of the endpoints changed. Productivity level was the major determinant of export, while fisheries mortality had the strongest effect on adult import. The dynamics of this nutrient trade-off are important for managers to consider as a recovering population will likely shift from net export to net import as escapement increases. This transition will be sensitive to both harvest rates and to fish passage efficacy at dams and other barriers.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗
USGS2014

Methylmercury production in sediment from agricultural and non-agricultural wetlands in the Yolo Bypass, California, USA

As part of a larger study of mercury (Hg) biogeochemistry and bioaccumulation in agricultural (rice growing) and non-agricultural wetlands in California's Central Valley, USA, seasonal and spatial controls on methylmercury (MeHg) production were examined in surface sediment. Three types of shallowly-flooded agricultural wetlands (white rice, wild rice, and fallow fields) and two types of managed (non-agricultural) wetlands (permanently and seasonally flooded) were sampled monthly-to-seasonally. Dynamic seasonal changes in readily reducible ‘reactive’ mercury (Hg(II) R ), Hg(II)-methylation rate constants (k meth ), and concentrations of electron acceptors (sulfate and ferric iron) and donors (acetate), were all observed in response to field management hydrology, whereas seasonal changes in these parameters were more muted in non-agricultural managed wetlands. Agricultural wetlands exhibited higher sediment MeHg concentrations than did non-agricultural wetlands, particularly during the fall through late-winter (post-harvest) period. Both sulfate- and iron-reducing bacteria have been implicated in MeHg production, and both were demonstrably active in all wetlands studied. Stoichiometric calculations suggest that iron-reducing bacteria dominated carbon flow in agricultural wetlands during the growing season. Sulfate-reducing bacteria were not stimulated by the addition of sulfate-based fertilizer to agricultural wetlands during the growing season, suggesting that labile organic matter, rather than sulfate, limited their activity in these wetlands. Along the continuum of sediment geochemical conditions observed, values of k meth increased approximately 10,000-fold, whereas Hg(II) R decreased 100-fold. This suggests that, with respect to the often opposing trends of Hg(II)-methylating microbial activity and Hg(II) availability for methylation, microbial activity dominated the Hg(II)-methylation process, and that along this biogeochemical continuum, conditions that favored microbial sulfate reduction resulted in the highest calculated MeHg production potential rates. Rice straw management options aimed at limiting labile carbon supplies to surface sediment during the post-harvest fall–winter period may be effective in limiting MeHg production within agricultural wetlands.

California↗
USGS2024

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into Department of the Interior analyses, consultations, and decision making

The purpose of this document is to provide technical guidance, practical application examples, and resource lists for those who conduct, manage, and/or interpret technical workflows within the Department of the Interior. This document is intended to support implementation of Department of the Interior policy 526 DM 1 and establish best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision making. The Earth’s climate is an interconnected system that distributes energy, heat, and water around the planet. Due to human-driven increases in long-lived greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is now changing. For Departmental decision-making purposes, assuming a static, unchanging baseline climate is no longer consistent with current knowledge about the climate system. There are uncertainties about future climate and how resources or assets (RoAs) will respond to new conditions. To depict the possibilities, the global climate science community develops scenarios and models to explore how future climate may respond to socioeconomic and technological development in the world. Principles for informing policy development, planning and decisions, and regulatory processes using climate change science must: 1) consider the effects of future climate change, 2) characterize the risks, and 3) characterize the uncertainties. Best practices include: Use multiple scenarios to assess risks from a range of plausible societal pathways. When constraints prevent the use of multiple scenarios or if decision makers are risk averse, ensure that the chosen scenario considers higher risk outcomes. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions and reduces the chances of overconfident decision making. Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty. Do not rely solely on a single model or an ensemble average. Use relevant climate data . Use a time-period for model projections of the future climate change consistent with the relevant timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered. Historical observations are useful for understanding past conditions and climate trends for the next several years, but not beyond the next decade. Consult with climate data and modeling experts to assess which data and model resources are most appropriate for any given application. Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties (including with any climate observations, models, and scenarios used), and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Report↗
USGS2012

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

Montana↗
USGS2019

Slough evolution and legacy mercury remobilization induced by wetland restoration in South San Francisco Bay

Coastal wetlands have a long history of degradation and destruction due to human development. Now recognized as one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, substantial efforts are being made to restore this critical habitat. While wetland restoration efforts are generally viewed as beneficial in terms of providing wildlife habitat and flood control, they are often accompanied by dramatic physical and chemical changes that may result in unintended consequences, which are rarely studied. Alviso Slough, a tidal slough in South San Francisco Bay, California, is the site of an ongoing effort to restore former salt-production ponds to intertidal marsh habitat. Restoration is complicated by the fact that (1) the ponds undergoing restoration are severely subsided and (2) subsurface sediments within the slough and surrounding ponds are contaminated with legacy mercury deposits. Due to concerns regarding mercury remobilization, restoration has proceeded in a cautious, methodical manner. To assess the amount of legacy mercury remobilized since restoration began, we developed a technique of combining high-resolution, biannual measurements of bathymetric scour with mercury concentration measurements from sediment cores. We estimate that 52 kg (±3) of mercury was remobilized in the 6 years since restoration began. Net bathymetric change analyses revealed seasonal trends of peak erosion during the winter months and little to no net change during summer months. Our analyses provide crucial insight on the spatial and temporal scales of geomorphic evolution within a tidal slough resulting from both natural (seasonal) variability and restoration actions. The technique presented here could be applied to other study sites and various sediment-associated contaminants of concern to aid in the design and management of restoration projects aiming to minimize negative impacts from legacy contaminants.

California↗
USGS2022

Quantifying status and trends from monitoring surveys: Application to Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii) in Lake Superior

Population assessments of fish species often rely on data from surveys with different objectives, such as measuring biodiversity or community dynamics. These surveys often contain spatial–temporal dependencies that can greatly influence conclusions drawn from analyses. Pygmy whitefish (PWF, Prosopium coulterii ) populations in Lake Superior were recently assessed as Threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Species in Canada, which motivated a thorough analysis of available data to improve our understanding of its population status. The US Geological Survey conducts annual bottom trawl surveys in Lake Superior that commonly capture PWF. We used these data (1989–2018) to model temporal trends in PWF biomass density and make lake-wide population projections. We used a Bayesian approach, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), and compared the impact of including different random structures on model fit. Inclusion of spatial structure improved model fit and conclusions differed from models omitting random effects. PWF populations have experienced periodic fluctuations in biomass density since 1989, though 2018 may represent the lowest density in the 30-year time series. Lake-wide biomass was estimated to be 71.5 t.

Lake Superior↗
USGS1989

A 107-year-old coral from Florida Bay: barometer of natural and man- induced catastrophes?

The 107-yr growth history of a massive coral Solenastrea bournoni from Florida Bay was reconstructed with X-ray imagery from a single 4 in. diameter (10 cm) core that penetrated the exact epicenter of the 95.3 cm high colony. Growth increments totalled 952.9 mm, averaging 8.9 mm/yr over the life of the coral. Growth rate trends in the Florida Bay coral were compared to those in a Montastraea annularis of similar age from a nearby patch reef on the Atlantic Ocean side of the Florida Keys. It was concluded that growth rate, at least in these specimens, is a questionable indicator of past hurricanes and freezes. There does appear to be, however, a possible cause-and-effect relationship between major man-induced environmental perturbations and a prolonged reduction in growth rate in each coral's growth record. -from Authors

Bulletin of Marine Science↗
USGS2002

Muskoxen

Muskoxen ( Ovibos moschatus ) disappeared from Alaska in the late 1800s, but returned to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge when animals were reestablished into areas of former range in 1969-1970 (Klein 1988). Released at Barter Island (Kaktovik) and the Kavik River, muskoxen initially moved into regions that encompassed the 1002 Area on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge. From 1974 to 1986 the muskox population grew rapidly. By 1987, however, numbers declined in the regions that they had first occupied (Reynolds 1998 a ). Petroleum exploration and development could occur in muskox habitat in the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge. Status of the muskox population and factors related to trends in local abundance need to be determined if changes resulting from natural processes are to be separated from those that might result if industrial development is permitted in the Arctic Refuge. We developed a study with the following objectives to understand the dynamics of the muskox population in and near the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge: 1) determine abundance and rates of population increase, production, and survival; 2) document changes in population distribution over time, and 3) evaluate factors associated with changes in the number of muskoxen.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗
USGS2003

Modern, Sangamon and Yarmouth soil development in loess of unglaciated southwestern Illinois

The Thebes Section in unglaciated southwestern Illinois contains a well preserved ??? 500 kyr loess-paleosol sequence with four loesses and three interglacial soils. Various magnetic, mineralogical, and elemental properties were analyzed and compared over the thickness of soil sola. These proxies for soil] development intensity have the following trend: Yarmouth Geosol > Sangamon Geosol > modern soil. Quartz/plagioclase, Zr/Sr, and TiO2/Na2O ratios were most sensitive to weathering. Frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility and anhysteretic remanent magnetization, greatest in A horizons, also correspond well with soil development intensity. Neoformed mixed-layered kaolinite/expandables, suggestive of a warm/humid climate, were detected in the Sangamon and Yarmouth soil sola. Clay illuviation in soils was among the least sensitive indicators of soil development. Differences in properties among interglacial soils are interpreted to primarily reflect soil development duration, with climatic effects being secondary. Assuming logarithmic decreases in weathering rates, the observed weathering in the Sangamon Geosol is consistent with 50 kyr of interglacial weathering (Oxygen Isotope Stage 5) compared to 10 kyr for the modern soil (Oxygen Isotope Stage 1). We propose that the Yarmouth Geosol in the central Midwest formed over 180 kyr of interglacial weathering (including oxygen isotope stages 7, 9, and 11). ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2000

Using linear models with correlated errors to analyze changes in abundance of Lake Michigan fishes: 1973-1992

We examined annual changes in relative abundance of Lake Michigan fishes using linear models with correlated errors in space and time. Abundance of bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), deepwater sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsoni ), slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) was monitored with bottom trawls at 10 discrete depths (between 18 and 110 m) off eight fixed ports from 1973 to 1992. The model describing abundance included fixed effects of year, port, depth, and interaction terms as well as quadratic and cubic effects of year and depth because changes in abundance were not strictly linear. Observed temporal trends in abundance varied with species and depth. Additionally, trends in alewife and slimy sculpin abundances depended on port. Cubic trends in the abundance of bloater and quadratic trends in deepwater sculpin and rainbow smelt abundances were similar among ports, permitting lakewide inferences for these species. Mean bloater abundance was low throughout the 1970s, increased during the 1980s, and reached high levels by 1990. Mean abundances of deepwater sculpin and rainbow smelt increased from 1973 to the mid-1980s and declined thereafter. The linear model with correlated errors can be readily applied to repeated-measures data from other fixed-station fishery surveys and is appropriate for data exhibiting spatial and temporal autocorrelations.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗
USGS2020

Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: Linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate

Sediment is one of the leading pollutants in rivers and streams across the United States (US) and the world. Between 1992 and 2012, concentrations of annual mean suspended sediment decreased at over half of the 137 stream sites assessed across the contiguous US. Increases occurred at less than 25 % of the sites, and the direction of change was uncertain at the remaining 25 %. Sediment trends were characterized using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model, and decreases in sediment ranged from −95 % to −8.5 % of the 1992 concentration. To explore potential drivers of these changes, the sediment trends were (1) parsed into two broad contributors of change, changes in land management versus changes in the streamflow regime, and (2) grouped by land use of the watershed and correlated to concurrent changes in land use or land cover (land use/cover), hydrology and climate variables and static/long-term watershed characteristics. At 83 % of the sites, changes in land management (captured by changes in the concentration–streamflow relationship over time; C–Q relationship) contributed more to the change in the sediment trend than changes in the streamflow regime alone (i.e., any systematic change in the magnitude, frequency or timing of flows). However, at >50 % of the sites, changes in the streamflow regime contributed at least a 5 % change in sediment, and at 11 sites changes in the streamflow regime contributed over half the change in sediment, indicating that at many sites changes in streamflow were not the main driver of changes in sediment but were often an important supporting factor. Correlations between sediment trends and concurrent changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate were often stronger at sites draining watersheds with more homogenous, human-related land uses (i.e., agricultural and urban lands) compared to mixed-use or undeveloped lands. At many sites, decreases in sediment occurred despite small-to-moderate increases in the amount of urban or agricultural land in the watershed, suggesting conservation efforts and best-management practices (BMPs) used to reduce sediment runoff to streams may be successful, up to a point, as lands are converted to urban and agricultural uses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2019

Decline of the North American avifauna

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of organisms that can result in extreme compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report major population losses across much of the North American avifauna, including in once common species and from nearly every biome. Integration of trend and population size estimates indicates a net loss approaching three billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. Continent-wide weather radar also reveals a comparable decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. Our estimates of abundance and biodiversity loss signals an urgent need to address ongoing threats, in order to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity and function.

Science↗
USGS1993

Cycling of sulfur in subduction zones: The geochemistry of sulfur in the Mariana Island Arc and back-arc trough

The sulfur contents and sulfur isotopic compositions of 24 glassy submarine volcanics from the Mariana Island Arc and back-arc Mariana Trough were determined in order to investigate the hypothesis that subducted seawater sulfur (δ 34 S= 21‰) is recycled through arc volcanism. Our results for sulfur are similar to those for subaerial arc volcanics: Mariana Arc glasses are enriched in 34 S (δ 34 S=up to10.3‰,mean= 3.8‰) and depleted in S (20–290 ppm, mean = 100 ppm) relative to MORB (850 ppm S,δ 34 S= 0.1 ± 0.5‰). The back-arc trough basalts contain 200–930 ppm S and haveδ 34 S values of1.1 ± 0.5‰, which overlap those for the arc and MORB. The low sulfur contents of the arc and some of the trough glasses are attributed to (1) early loss of small amounts of sulfur through separation of immiscible sulfide and (2) later vapor-melt equilibrium control of sulfur contents and loss of sulfur in a vapor phase from sulfide-undersaturated melts near the minimum in sulfur solubility atƒO 2 ≈NNO (nickel-nickel oxide). Although these processes removed sulfur from the melts their effects on the sulfur isotopic compositions of the melts were minimal. Positive trends ofδ 34 S with 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, LILE and LREE contents of the arc volcanics are consistent with a metasomatic seawater sulfur component in the depleted sub-arc mantle source. The lack of a 34 S-rich slab signature in the trough lavas may be attributed to equilibration of metasomatic fluid with mantle material along the longer pathway from the slab to the source of the trough volcanics. Sulfur is likely to have been transported into the mantle wedge by metasomatic fluid derived from subducted sediments and pore fluids.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2018

Toxicity assessment of groundwater contaminated by petroleum hydrocarbons at a well-characterized, aged, crude oil release site

Management of petroleum-impacted waters by monitored natural attenuation requires an understanding of the toxicology of both the original compounds released and the transformation products formed during natural breakdown. Here, we report data from a groundwater plume consisting of a mixture of crude oil compounds and transformation products in an effort to bridge the gap between groundwater quality information and potential biological effects of human exposures. Groundwater samples were characterized for redox processes, concentrations of nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon (NVDOC) and total petroleum hydrocarbons in the diesel range, as well as for activation of human nuclear receptors (hNR) and toxicologically relevant transcriptional pathways. Results show upregulation of several biological pathways, including peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma and alpha, estrogen receptor alpha, and pregnane X receptor (PXR) with higher levels of hNR activity observed in more contaminated samples. Our study of affected groundwater contaminated by a crude-oil release 39 years ago shows these types of waters may have the potential to cause adverse impacts on development, endocrine, and liver functioning in exposed populations. Additionally, positive trends in activation of some of the molecular targets (e.g., PXR) with increasing NVDOC concentrations (including polar transformation products) demonstrate the importance of improving our understanding of the toxicity associated with the unknown transformation products present in hydrocarbon-impacted waters. Our results begin to provide insight into the potential toxicity of petroleum-impacted waters, which is particularly timely given the ubiquitous nature of waters impacted by petroleum contamination not only recently but also in the past and the need to protect drinking-water quality.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2011

Quantifying differences in the impact of variable chemistry on equilibrium uranium(VI) adsorption properties of aquifer sediments

Uranium adsorption-desorption on sediment samples collected from the Hanford 300-Area, Richland, WA varied extensively over a range of field-relevant chemical conditions, complicating assessment of possible differences in equilibrium adsorption properties. Adsorption equilibrium was achieved in 500-1000 h although dissolved uranium concentrations increased over thousands of hours owing to changes in aqueous chemical composition driven by sediment-water reactions. A nonelectrostatic surface complexation reaction, >SOH + UO 2 2+ + 2CO 3 2- = >SOUO 2 (CO 3 HCO 3 ) 2- , provided the best fit to experimental data for each sediment sample resulting in a range of conditional equilibrium constants (log K c ) from 21.49 to 21.76. Potential differences in uranium adsorption properties could be assessed in plots based on the generalized mass-action expressions yielding linear trends displaced vertically by differences in log K c values. Using this approach, log K c values for seven sediment samples were not significantly different. However, a significant difference in adsorption properties between one sediment sample and the fines (<0.063 mm) of another could be demonstrated despite the fines requiring a different reaction stoichiometry. Estimates of log K c uncertainty were improved by capturing all data points within experimental errors. The mass-action expression plots demonstrate that applying models outside the range of conditions used in model calibration greatly increases potential errors.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Aquatic vegetation dynamics in the Upper Mississippi River over 2 decades spanning vegetation recovery

Macrophytes have recovered in rivers across the world, but long-term data and studies are lacking regarding community assembly and diversity changes coincident with macrophyte recovery. We investigated patterns of aquatic vegetation species composition and diversity in thousands of sites in the Upper Mississippi River, USA, spanning 21 y of monitoring and a period of vegetation recovery. We analyzed site-level compositional dissimilarity and environmental associations using non-metric multidimensional scaling, compared stability of lake-level assemblages over time with convex hulls, and assessed shared trends in assemblage dissimilarity at the pool scale using dynamic factor analysis. Site-level differences in aquatic vegetation assemblage structure were associated with water depth and substrate, and a gradient of species abundance and diversity was apparent. A common trend in assemblage dissimilarity over time and across contiguous floodplain lakes indicate that assemblage composition changed and diversity increased with considerable synchrony within the past 21 y. Shared trends across the 400-km study reach are indicative of 1 or more widespread, common drivers; however, neither hydrologic extremes nor turbidity explained vegetation assemblage patterns. Following several years of strong changes in composition and increased diversity, the vegetation assemblage displayed signs of increasing stability in some pools but not others. Further research is needed to identify drivers and mechanisms of aquatic vegetation assemblage expansion, assembly, and resilience, all of which will be applicable to the recovery of aquatic vegetation in floodplain systems worldwide.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Range-wide genetic analysis of an endangered bumble bee (Bombus affinis, Hymenoptera: Apidae) reveals population structure, isolation by distance, and low colony abundance

Declines in bumble bee species range and abundances are documented across multiple continents and have prompted the need for research to aid species recovery and conservation. The rusty patched bumble bee ( Bombus affinis ) is the first federally listed bumble bee species in North America. We conducted a range-wide population genetics study of B. affinis from across all extant conservation units to inform conservation efforts. To understand the species’ vulnerability and help establish recovery targets, we examined population structure, patterns of genetic diversity, and population differentiation. Additionally, we conducted a site-level analysis of colony abundance to inform prioritizing areas for conservation, translocation, and other recovery actions. We find substantial evidence of population structuring along an east-to-west gradient. Putative populations show evidence of isolation by distance, high inbreeding coefficients, and a range-wide male diploidy rate of ~15%. Our results suggest the Appalachians represent a genetically distinct cluster with high levels of private alleles and substantial differentiation from the rest of the extant range. Site-level analyses suggest low colony abundance estimates for B. affinis compared to similar datasets of stable, co-occurring species. These results lend genetic support to trends from observational studies, suggesting that B. affinis has undergone a recent decline and exhibit substantial spatial structure. The low colony abundances observed here suggest caution in overinterpreting the stability of populations even where B. affinis is reliably detected interannually. These results help delineate informed management units, provide context for the potential risks of translocation programs, and help set clear recovery targets for this and other threatened bumble bee species.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minne↗