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USGS Western Coastal and Marine Geology Team

The Western Coastal and Marine Geology Team of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies the coasts of the western United States, including Alaska and Hawai‘i. Team scientists conduct research, monitor processes, and develop information about coastal and marine geologic hazards, environmental conditions, habitats, and energy and mineral resources. This information helps managers at all levels of government and in the private sector make informed decisions about the use and protection of national coastal and marine resources.

Fact Sheet

Estimating landslide losses - preliminary results of a seven-State pilot project

Introduction: In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Program provided funding for seven State geological surveys to report on the status of landslide investigation strategies in each of their States, and to suggest improved ways to approach the tracking of landslides, their effects, losses associated with the landslides, and hazard mitigation strategies. Each State was to provide a draft report suggesting innovative ways to track landslides, and to participate in subsequent workshops. A workshop was convened in June 2003 in Lincoln, Neb., to discuss the results and future strategies on how best to incorporate the seven pilot projects into one methodology that all of the 50 States could adopt. The seven individual reports produced by the State surveys are published here to put forth a forum for discussion of the varying methods of tracking landslides. The goal is to eventually adopt a single, universally applied methodology to track landslides that will provide a consistent framework for collecting data on landslide damage and economic impact. Participating States include: California (James Davis, Jack McMillan); Kentucky (Jim Cobb, John Kiefer, John Rockaway); Nebraska (Mark Kuzila, Duane Eversoll); Ohio (Thomas Berg, Jon Rockaway), Oregon (John Beaulieu, Yumei Wang, Renee Summers, Jon Hofmeister); Pennsylvania (Jay Parrish, Helen Delano); Utah (Richard Allis, Francis Ashland). The USGS personnel involved in the planning and meeting facilitation are Paula Gori, Peter Lyttle, and John Pallister. The general USGS strategy to address landslide loss reduction was developed with input from State geological surveys, the engineering-geology consulting community, and academic investigators. The strategy was reviewed by the National Research Council, 2004), is summarized in USGS Circular 1244 (Spiker and Gori, 2003) and is endorsed by the AASG. This pilot study, conducted by seven State geological surveys, examines the feasibility of collecting accurate and reliable information on economic losses associated with landslides. Each State survey examined the availability, distribution, and inherent uncertainties of economic loss data in their study areas. Their results provide the basis for identifying the most fruitful methods of collecting landslide loss data nationally, using methods that are consistent and provide common goals. These results can enhance and establish the future directions of scientific investigation priorities by convincingly documenting landslide risks and consequences that are universal throughout the 50 States. This report is organized as follows: A general summary of the pilot project history, goals, and preliminary conclusions from the Lincoln, Neb. workshop are presented first. Internet links are then provided for each State report, which appear on the internet in PDF format and which have been placed at the end of this open-file report. A reference section follows the reports, and, lastly, an Appendix of categories of landslide loss and sources of loss information is included for the reader's information. Please note: The Oregon Geological Survey has also submitted a preliminary report on indirect loss estimation methodology, which is also linked with the others. Each State report is unique and presented in the form in which it was submitted, having been independently peer reviewed by each respective State survey. As such, no universal 'style' or format has been adopted as there have been no decisions on which inventory methods will be recommended to the 50 states, as of this writing. The reports are presented here as information for decision makers, and for the record; although several reports provide recommendations on inventory methods that could be adopted nationwide, currently no decisions have been made on adopting a uniform methodology for the States.

Open-File Report

Simulated atmospheric response to four projected land-use land-cover change scenarios for 2050 in the north-central United States

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) has become an important topic of research for the central United States because of the extensive conversion of the natural prairie into agricultural land, especially in the northern Great Plains. As a result, shifts in the natural climate (minimum/maximum temperature, precipitation, etc.) across the north-central United States have been observed, as noted within the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report. Thus, it is necessary to understand how further LULCC will affect the near-surface atmosphere, the lower troposphere, and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) atmosphere over this region. The goal of this work was to investigate the utility of a new future land-use land-cover (LULC) dataset within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. The present study utilizes a modeled future land-use dataset developed by the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-Use Change (FORE-SCE) model to investigate the influence of future (2050) land use on a simulated PBL development within the WRF Model. Three primary areas of LULCC were identified within the FORE-SCE future LULC dataset across Nebraska and South Dakota. Variations in LULC between the 2005 LULC control simulation and four FORE-SCE simulations affected near-surface temperature (0.5°–1°C) and specific humidity (0.3–0.5 g kg −1 ). The differences noted in the temperature and moisture fields affected the development of the simulated PBL, leading to variations in PBL height and convective available potential energy. Overall, utilizing the FORE-SCE dataset within WRF produced notable differences relative to the control simulation over areas of LULCC represented in the FORE-SCE dataset.

Nebraska, South Dakota

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina

Cartographic applications software

The Office of the Assistant Division Chief for Research, National Mapping Division, develops computer software for the solution of geometronic problems in the fields of surveying, geodesy, remote sensing, and photogrammetry. Software that has been developed using public funds is available on request for a nominal charge to recover the cost of duplication.

Fact Sheet

A critical review of bioaccumulation and biotransformation of organic chemicals in birds

A literature review of bioaccumulation and biotransformation of organic chemicals in birds was undertaken, aiming to support scoping and prioritization of future research. The objectives were to characterize available bioaccumulation/biotransformation data, identify knowledge gaps, determine how extant data can be used, and explore the strategy and steps forward. An intermediate approach balanced between expediency and rigor was taken given the vastness of the literature. Following a critical review of > 500 peer-reviewed studies, > 25,000 data entries and 2 million information bytes were compiled on > 700 organic compounds for ~ 320 wild species and 60 domestic breeds of birds. These data were organized into themed databases on bioaccumulation and biotransformation , field survey , microsomal enzyme activity , metabolic pathway , and bird taxonomy and diet . Significant data gaps were identified in all databases at multiple levels. Biotransformation characterization was largely fragmented over metabolite/pathway identification and characterization of enzyme activity or biotransformation kinetics. Limited biotransformation kinetic data constrained development of an avian biotransformation model. A substantial shortage of in vivo biotransformation kinetics has been observed as most reported rate constants were derived in vitro. No metric comprehensively captured all key contaminant classes or chemical groups to support broad-scope modeling of bioaccumulation or biotransformation. However, metrics such as biota-feed accumulation factor, maximum transfer factor, and total elimination rate constant were more readily usable for modeling or benchmarking than other reviewed parameters. Analysis demonstrated the lack of bioaccumulation/biotransformation characterization of shorebirds, seabirds, and raptors. In the study of bioaccumulation and biotransformation of organic chemicals in birds, this review revealed the need for greater chemical and avian species diversity, chemical measurements in environmental media, basic biometrics and exposure conditions, multiple tissues/matrices sampling, and further exploration on biotransformation. Limitations of classical bioaccumulation metrics and current research strategies used in bird studies were also discussed. Forward-looking research strategies were proposed: adopting a chemical roadmap for future investigations, integrating existing biomonitoring data, gap-filling with non-testing approaches, improving data reporting practices, expanding field sampling scopes, bridging existing models and theories, exploring biotransformation via avian genomics, and establishing an online data repository.

Reviews of Environmental Contamination and Toxicol

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2012

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) annual report. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $70 million in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289,established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). The mission of the NCCWSC is to provide natural resource managers with the tools and information they need to develop and execute management strategies that address the impacts of climate and other ongoing global changes on fish and wildlife and their habitats. The DOI CSCs are joint Federal-university partnerships that focus their scientific work on regional priorities identified by DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as well as Federal, State, Tribal, and other resource managers. The CSCs provide access to a wide range of scientific capabilities through their network of university partners along with the USGS and other Federal agency scientists. The focus of the NCCWSC on multiregion and national priorities complements the regionally focused agendas of the CSCs.

Circular

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Water resources

The Williston Basin has been a leading oil and gas producing area for more than 50 years. While oil production initially peaked within the Williston Basin in the mid-1980s, production rapidly increased in the mid-2000s, largely because of improved horizontal (directional) drilling and hydraulic fracturing methods. In 2012, energy development associated with the Bakken Formation was identified as a priority requiring collaboration toward improved timeliness of issuing permits for new wells combined with reasonable measures to maintain environmental quality. Shortly thereafter, the Bakken Federal Executive Group was created to address common challenges associated with energy development. The Bakken Federal Executive Group partner agencies identified a gap in current understanding of the cumulative environmental challenges attributed to energy development throughout the area, resulting in an effort to aggregate scientific data and identify additional research and information needs related to natural resources within areas of energy development in the Williston Basin. As part of this effort, water resources in the area (including groundwater; streams and rivers; and lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands) were characterized and described in terms of physical occurrence, flow characteristics, recharge, water quality, and water use. Similarly, waters produced during energy-development activities also were characterized even though these waters are not considered usable resources within the area. Groundwater resources were characterized by the major hydrogeologic units, or aquifers, identifying the units that supply most groundwater used for domestic, stock, agricultural, and industrial purposes. The groundwater characterization included other deeper hydrogeologic units in the Williston Basin that may be a useable source of water with treatment, have utility as a reservoir for reinjection of produced waters, or be a source of minerals and energy resources. A generalized groundwater budget and flow system identifying the sources of recharge (stream infiltration, precipitation, and movement [leakage] from other aquifers) and the general groundwater flow direction is included for each of the major hydrogeologic units. Rivers and streams within the Williston Basin with 10 or more years of continuous streamflow data were identified. For a subset of these sites, streamflow characteristics, including the monthly and annual mean flow, were generated to identify seasonal and interannual changes in streamflow and thus provide information on the drivers and reliability of streamflow at the seasonal or multiyear scale. Daily streamflow and annual extreme flows (peak and low flow) also were estimated for the subset of sites. The daily streamflow and annual extreme flow values provide information on short-term or extreme events that are relevant to infrastructure design and evaluating spills, leaks, or accidental discharges of water or petroleum products. Surface-water features (lakes, ponds, and wetlands) were classified using the Cowardin system and identified on the National Wetlands Inventory maps generated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The spatial distribution of the surface-water features was analyzed by State, county, and specifically in comparison to the Prairie Pothole Region. The proximity of the surface-water features to energy development infrastructure (specifically oil or gas well pads) was evaluated. It was determined that, although oil or gas wells are often near a surface-water feature, most surface-water features do not have wells nearby, with the exception of wells in the Prairie Pothole Region. Water-quality data were aggregated from two data sources: (1) the Water-Quality Portal, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and National Water Quality Monitoring Council; and (2) a data compilation completed as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment project. The Water-Quality Portal integrates publicly available water-quality data from databases maintained by the USGS, EPA, and U.S. Department of Agriculture, including water-quality data from Tribal, State, and local databases. Water-quality data for 15 commonly measured water-quality constituents were aggregated for groundwater, rivers and streams, and lakes and reservoirs. For each aggregated dataset (groundwater, rivers and streams, and lakes and reservoirs), analyses of the water-quality data included summary statistics, maps of spatial distribution of constituent values, boxplots of constituent values by timeframe or hydrogeologic unit, spatial comparisons of site locations and constituent values to petroleum well density, and comparisons of the constituent values measured to EPA drinking-water standards/guidelines. Produced water includes all fluids brought to the surface along with the targeted hydrocarbons as part of the oil and gas exploration and extraction processes. These fluids may include formation water (waters that co-exist with rock/oil/gas), hydraulic fracturing fluids, and other combinations of water and chemicals used during oil and gas well drilling, development, treatments, recompletions, and workovers. Produced water datasets were aggregated from two sources: the USGS National Produced Waters Geochemical database (ver. 2.1) and a series of projects focused specifically on sampling produced water in the Williston Basin from 2010 to 2014. The National Produced Waters Geochemical database was useful for a general understanding of produced-water chemistry. Produced waters are characterized by extreme salinity and contain elevated concentrations of other constituents (including arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, zinc, radium-226/radium-228, and ammonium) that could negatively affect water and aquatic resources if released. Produced waters also have a generally unique chemical (isotopic) signature that may be useful in tracking water from different geologic units; for example, the oxygen/deuterium and strontium ratio values measured in brine waters from the Bakken Formation are distinct from brines collected from other geologic units in the Williston Basin. Water-use information related to energy production in the area also was aggregated and summarized. The summary of water use is not limited to oil and gas production but includes water used to produce all types of energy resources in the Williston Basin, including coal/lignite, thermoelectric power, oil and gas, hydropower, biomass and biofuels, wind, geothermal, and solar. Each State has its own methods for regulating and reporting water usage within its jurisdiction. These methods can introduce problems when examining water use from sources, such as the Missouri River or Fox Hills aquifer, that are shared across political boundaries. Without the one-to-one match for usage types and amounts used from a water source, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive water budget for the water source being evaluated. A large amount of freshwater is required to prepare a well for oil and gas well production; in some cases, 3 to 7 million gallons of water are needed per well. The EPA estimates that hydraulic fracturing in the Williston Basin uses between 70 to 140 billion gallons per year. Water also is used for myriad other purposes related to ancillary oil and gas extraction. In addition to water used for immediate energy development, the expanded human workforce migrating into the area and other support staff who have moved into the area during the development also use water. Research and information needs were identified that could be relevant in the evaluation of the effects of energy development on water resources. Information needs related to the evaluation of groundwater resources include the following: improved potentiometric-surface maps for glacial units; availability of a uniform stream network digital geographic coverage that spans the international boundary with Canada; enhanced surface-water use information with regards to the gain and loss of streamflow to shallow groundwater, which would increase understanding groundwater and surface-water interactions; and expanded geophysical assessments. Gaps in the availability of streamflow data include the lack of information on ice-jam flooding despite potential for effects to infrastructure (pipelines, roads, and facilities) and an understanding of the cumulative effects of largely undocumented stock and diversion dams. Although this study resulted in the aggregation of a large quantity of water-quality data, the availability of consistently collected, systematically processed and reported data over large parts of the Williston Basin is sparse. Few samples have been analyzed for constituents that may indicate the effect of energy development on water resources. Constituents that could be considered include boron, chloride, bromide, iodine, fluoride, manganese, lithium, radium, strontium isotopes, volatile organic compounds, and isotopes of inorganic ions (such as hydrogen and carbon). Collaboration between Tribal, Federal, State, and local entities to identify a common study design, common monitoring constituents, and consistent sampling locations would generate datasets with broad utility and would likely result in overall cost savings for monitoring over time. Similarly, there is a need for standardized sample collection, processing, laboratory analytical methods, and the collection of ancillary data for produced waters sampling. Additional characterization of the range of chemical, microbial, and isotopic compositions and quantities of “end-member” produced waters, and the collection of time-series datasets to document the changes in produced waters during and after well development also were needs identified during this study. Water-use estimates would be improved through the implementation of comprehensive studies of water use from groundwater and surface-water sources using consistent methodologies across the Williston Basin. The submission of chemical and water data related to hydraulic fracturing collected by the oil and gas industry would add to the quantity of available data. Consistent implementation of regulations and monitoring controls across political boundaries (State, county, and international) would further improve the consistency of data available for the estimates of water use.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Evaluation of a Chicken 600K SNP genotyping array in non-model species of grouse

The use of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays to generate large SNP datasets for comparison purposes have recently become an attractive alternative to other genotyping methods. Although most SNP arrays were originally developed for domestic organisms, they can be effectively applied to wild relatives to obtain large panels of SNPs. In this study, we tested the cross-species application of the Affymetrix 600K Chicken SNP array in five species of North American prairie grouse ( Centrocercus and Tympanuchus genera). Two individuals were genotyped per species for a total of ten samples. A high proportion (91%) of the total 580 961 SNPs were genotyped in at least one individual (73–76% SNPs genotyped per species). Principal component analysis with autosomal SNPs separated the two genera, but failed to clearly distinguish species within genera. Gene ontology analysis identified a set of genes related to morphogenesis and development (including genes involved in feather development), which may be primarily responsible for large phenotypic differences between Centrocercus and Tympanuchus grouse. Our study provided evidence for successful cross-species application of the chicken SNP array in grouse which diverged ca. 37 mya from the chicken lineage. As far as we are aware, this is the first reported application of a SNP array in non-passerine birds, and it demonstrates the feasibility of using commercial SNP arrays in research on non-model bird species.

Scientific Reports

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics

An introduction to current climate projections and their use in climate impacts research

Using climate projections to evaluate future climate impacts and their associated risks requires a background knowledge of the nature of climate change, use of climate models to develop future projections, and knowledge of how to address climate scenario uncertainty. This chapter provides an overview of climate and climate change, some of the foundational climate science that underlies current climate change assessments, and a brief introduction to climate models and climate scenario uncertainty. Global projections of temperature and precipitation changes from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and a brief comparison to the prior assessment (AR5) are provided. The main sources of uncertainty in these projections include climate variability, climate model differences and treatment of scientific knowledge gaps, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. When projections are downscaled to local resolution, downscaling is an additional source of uncertainty. These uncertainties can be incorporated in assessments of climate impacts by choosing a range of scenarios that directly address the sources of uncertainty. Evaluating the likelihood of a given climate impact on animal health or management strategies requires consideration of the main sources of climate projection uncertainties. Adaptation requires consideration of global-to-regional contexts of climate changes and impacts, but also adaptive capacity.

Book chapter

Geographic analysis and monitoring at the United States Geological Survey

The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey assesses the Nation's land surface at a variety of spatial and temporal scales to understand the rates, causes, and consequences of natural and human-induced processes and their interactions that affect the landscape over time. The program plays an important role in developing National Map tools and application. The GAM is a science and synthesis program that not only assesses the rates of changes to the Earth's land surface, but also provides reports on the status and trends of the Nation's land resources on a periodic basis, produces a land-use and land- cover database for the periodically updated map and data set-the Geographic Face of the Nation, and conducts research leading to improved understanding and knowledge about geographic processes. Scientific investigations provide comprehensive information needed to understand the environmental, resource, and economic consequences of landscape change. These analyses responds to the needs of resource managers and offers the American public baseline information to help them understand the dynamic nature of our national landscape and to anticipate the opportunities and consequences of our actions.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science

Fisheries and aquatic resources—fish health

Fish health research at Leetown had its origin in the 1930’s when the Leetown Fish Hatchery and Experiment Station was constructed. In 1978, the National Fish Health Research Laboratory, now a component of the Leetown Science Center, was established to solve emerging and known disease problems affecting fish and other aquatic organisms critical to species restoration programs. Center scientists develop methods for the isolation, detection, and identification of fish pathogens and for prevention and control of fish diseases.

Fact Sheet

Analysis of pharmaceutical and other organic wastewater compounds in filtered and unfiltered water samples by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry

Research on the effects of exposure of stream biota to complex mixtures of pharmaceuticals and other organic compounds associated with wastewater requires the development of additional analytical capabilities for these compounds in water samples. Two gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analytical methods used at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) to analyze organic compounds associated with wastewater were adapted to include additional pharmaceutical and other organic compounds beginning in 2009. This report includes a description of method performance for 42 additional compounds for the filtered-water method (hereafter referred to as the filtered method) and 46 additional compounds for the unfiltered-water method (hereafter referred to as the unfiltered method). The method performance for the filtered method described in this report has been published for seven of these compounds; however, the addition of several other compounds to the filtered method and the addition of the compounds to the unfiltered method resulted in the need to document method performance for both of the modified methods. Most of these added compounds are pharmaceuticals or pharmaceutical degradates, although two nonpharmaceutical compounds are included in each method. The main pharmaceutical compound classes added to the two modified methods include muscle relaxants, opiates, analgesics, and sedatives. These types of compounds were added to the original filtered and unfiltered methods largely in response to the tentative identification of a wide range of pharmaceutical and other organic compounds in samples collected from wastewater-treatment plants. Filtered water samples are extracted by vacuum through disposable solid-phase cartridges that contain modified polystyrene-divinylbenzene resin. Unfiltered samples are extracted by using continuous liquid-liquid extraction with dichloromethane. The compounds of interest for filtered and unfiltered sample types were determined by use of the capillary-column gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The performance of each method was assessed by using data on recoveries of compounds in fortified surface-water, wastewater, and reagent-water samples. These experiments (referred to as spike experiments) consist of fortifying (or spiking) samples with known amounts of target analytes. Surface-water-spike experiments were performed by using samples obtained from a stream in Colorado (unfiltered method) and a stream in New York (filtered method). Wastewater spike experiments for both the filtered and unfiltered methods were performed by using a treated wastewater obtained from a single wastewater treatment plant in New York. Surface water and wastewater spike experiments were fortified at both low and high concentrations and termed low- and high-level spikes, respectively. Reagent water spikes were assessed in three ways: (1) set spikes, (2) a low-concentration fortification experiment, and (3) a high-concentration fortification experiment. Set spike samples have been determined since 2009, and consist of analysis of fortified reagent water for target compounds included for each group of 10 to18 environmental samples analyzed at the NWQL. The low-concentration and high-concentration reagent spike experiments, by contrast, represent a one-time assessment of method performance. For each spike experiment, mean recoveries ranging from 60 to 130 percent indicate low bias, and relative standard deviations (RSDs) less than (<) 30 percent indicate low variability. Of the compounds included in the filtered method, 21 had mean recoveries ranging from 63 to 129 percent for the low-level and high-level surface-water spikes, and had low (<15 percent) RSDs for these spikes. The remaining 21 compounds generally had high bias for the low-level or the high-level spike experiments for surface water [mean recoveries <58 percent or greater than (>)132 percent]. For wastewater spikes, 24 of the compounds included in the filtered method had recoveries ranging from 61 to 130 percent for the low-level and high-level spikes. RSDs were <29 percent for both of these spike experiments for the 24 compounds. The remaining 18 compounds in the filtered method generally had high recoveries (>130 percent) or variable recoveries (RSDs >30 percent) for low-level wastewater spikes, or low recoveries (<60 percent) for high-level wastewater spikes. Of the compounds included in the filtered method, 34 had mean set-spike recoveries between 61 and 126 percent, and RSDs <30 percent. Of the compounds included in the unfiltered method, 17 had mean spike recoveries ranging from 74 to 129 percent and RSDs ranging from 5 to 25 percent for low-level and high-level surface water spikes. The remaining compounds had poor mean recoveries (<60 or >130 percent), or high RSDs (>29 percent) for these spikes. For wastewater, 14 of the compounds included in the unfiltered method had mean recoveries ranging from 62 to 127 percent and RSDs <25 percent for the low-level and high-level spikes. Most of the remaining compounds had high mean recoveries for wastewater (>130 percent), or low mean recoveries (<20 percent) or high RSDs (>33 percent) for the low-level wastewater spikes. Of the compounds found in wastewater, 24 had mean set spike recoveries ranging from 64 to 104 percent and RSDs <30 percent. Separate method detection limits (MDLs) were computed for surface water and wastewater for both the filtered and unfiltered methods. Filtered method MDLs ranged from 0.007 to 0.14 microgram per liter (μg/L) for the surface water matrix and from 0.004 to 0.62 μg/L for the wastewater matrix. Unfiltered method MDLs ranged from 0.014 to 0.33 μg/L for the surface water matrix and from 0.008 to 0.36 μg/L for the wastewater matrix.

Open-File Report

Quantifying Equid Behavior - A Research Ethogram for Free-Roaming Feral Horses

Feral horses (Equus caballus) are globally distributed in free-roaming populations on all continents except Antarctica and occupy a wide range of habitats including forest, grassland, desert, and montane environments. The largest populations occur in Australia and North America and have been the subject of scientific study for decades, yet guidelines and ethograms for feral horse behavioral research are largely absent in the scientific literature. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center conducted research on the influences of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on feral horse behavior from 2003-2006 in three discrete populations in the American west. These populations were the Little Book Cliffs Wild Horse Range in Colorado, McCullough Peaks Herd Management Area in Wyoming, and Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range in Montana; the research effort included over 1,800 hours of behavioral observations of 317 adult free-roaming feral horses. An ethogram was developed during the course of this study to facilitate accurate scientific data collection on feral horse behavior, which is often challenging to quantify. By developing this set of discrete behavioral definitions and a set of strict research protocols, scientists were better able to address both applied questions, such as behavioral changes related to fertility control, and theoretical questions, such as understanding networks and dominance hierarchies within social groups of equids.

Techniques and Methods

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Oregon

2005 annual progress report: Elk and bison grazing ecology in the Great Sand Dunes complex of lands

In 2000 the U.S. Congress authorized the expansion of the former Great Sand Dunes National Monument by establishing a new Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in its place, and establishing the Baca National Wildlife Refuge. The establishment of Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the new Baca National Wildlife Refuge in the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado was one of the most significant land conservation actions in the western U.S. in recent years. The action was a result of cooperation between the National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Forest Service (USDA-FS), and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The new national park, when fully implemented, will consist of 107,265 acres, the new national preserve 41,872 acres, and the new national wildlife refuge (USFWS lands) 92,180 acres (fig. 1). The area encompassed by this designation protects a number of natural wonders and features including a unique ecosystem of natural sand dunes, the entire watershed of surface and groundwaters that are necessary to preserve and recharge the dunes and adjacent wetlands, a unique stunted forest, and other valuable riparian vegetation communities that support a host of associated wildlife and bird species. When the National Park was initially established, there were concerns about overconcentrations and impacts on native plant communities of the unhunted segments of a large and possibly growing elk (Cervus elaphus) population. This led to the designation of the Preserve as a compromise solution, where the elk could be harvested. The Preserve Unit, however, will not address all the ungulate management challenges. In order to reduce the current elk population, harvests of elk may need to be aggressive. But aggressive special hunts of elk to achieve population reductions can result in elk avoidance of certain areas or elk seeking refuge in areas where they cannot be hunted, while removals of whole herd segments and abandonment or alterations of migration routes can occur (Smith and Robbins, 1994; Boyce and others, 1991). Elk may seek refuge from hunting in the newly expanded Park Unit and TNC lands where they might overconcentrate and impact unique vegetation communities. In these sites of refugia, or preferred loafing sites, elk and bison could accelerate a decline in woody riparian shrubs and trees. This decline may also be due to changes in hydrology, climatic, or dunal processes, but ungulate herbivory might exacerbate the effects of those processes. To address the questions and needs of local resource managers, a multi-agency research project was initiated in 2005 to study the ecology, forage relations, and habitat relations of elk and bison in the Great Sand Dunes&ndash;Sangre de Cristo&ndash;Baca complex of lands. Meetings and discussions of what this research should include were started in 2001 with representatives from NPS, USFWS, TNC, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW), and USDA-FS/BLM. The final study plan was successfully funded in 2004 with research scheduled to start in 2005. The research was designed to encompass three major study elements: (1) animal movements and population dynamics, (2) vegetation and nutrient effects from ungulate herbivory, and (3) development of ecological models, using empirical data collected from the first two components, that will include estimates of elk carrying capacity and management scenarios for resource managers.

Colorado

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument&rsquo;s elk population and the importance of the Monument&rsquo;s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species&rsquo; habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985&minus;2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming&rsquo;s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming&rsquo;s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900&minus;2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming&rsquo;s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming