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USGS2008

Extreme changes in stable hydrogen isotopes and precipitation characteristics in a landfalling Pacific storm

With a new automated precipitation collector we measured a remarkable decrease of 51??? in the hydrogen isotope ratio (?? 2H) of precipitation over a 60-minute period during the landfall of an extratropical cyclone along the California coast on 21 March 2005. The rapid drop in ??2H occurred as precipitation generation transitioned from a shallow to a much deeper cloud layer, in accord with synoptic-scale ascent and deep "seeder-feeder" precipitation. Such unexpected ?? 2H variations can substantially impact widely used isotope-hydrograph methods. From extreme ??2H values of -26 and -78???, we calculate precipitation temperatures of 9.7 and -4.2??C using an adiabatic condensation isotope model, in good agreement with temperatures estimated from surface observations and radar data. This model indicates that 60 percent of the moisture was precipitated during ascent as temperature decreased from 15??C at the ocean surface to -4??C above the measurement site.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2010

The California current of the last glacial maximum: reconstruction at 42°N based on multiple proxies

Multiple paleoceanographic proxies in a zonal transect across the California Current near 42°N record modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) thermal and nutrient gradients. The offshore thermal gradient, derived from foraminiferal species assemblages and oxygen isotope data, was similar at the LGM to that at present (warmer offshore), but average temperatures were 3.3° ±1.5°C colder. Observed gradients require that the sites remained under the southward flow of the California Current, and thus that the polar front remained north of 42°N during the LGM. Carbon isotopic and foraminiferal flux data suggests enhanced nutrients and productivity of foraminfera in the northern California Current up to 650 km offshore. In contrast, marine organic carbon and coastal diatom burial rates decreased during the LGM. These seemingly contradictory results are reconciled by model simulations of the LGM wind- field, which suggest that wind stress curl at 42°N (and thus open-ocean upwelling) increased, while offshore Ekman transport (and thus coastal upwelling) decreased during the last ice age. The ecosystem of the northern California Current during the LGM approximated that of the modern Gulf of Alaska. Cooling and production in this region was thus driven by stronger open-ocean upwelling and/or southward flow of high-latitude water masses, rather than by coastal upwelling.

Paleoceanography↗

USGS1969

The structure and tectonic history of the eastern Aleutian Trench

The tectonic character of the eastern Aleutian Trench and some major events in its geologic history can be estimated from nine continuous seismic reflection records. A section of pre-trench, deep oceanic sediments rests on the down-warped crust that forms the trench. Nearly horizontal undeformed strata that unconformably overlie this deep oceanic section partially fill the trench. The trench fill is thickest near present sediment sources. A Pliocene age for development of the eastern Aleutian Trench is estimated from the thickness of deep oceanic sediment that accumulated after the trench began to fill. The eastern Aleutian Trench thus appears younger than the central Aleutian Trench—a relation which helps to explain the distribution of sediment along the two trench segments. Depression of the eastern Aleutian Trench diminished or virtually ended soon after the trench began to fill. The undeformed fill provides no evidence for a large thrust fault zone at the base of the continental slope. Nor is there any evidence that oceanic sediments have disappeared beneath the continents in late Tertiary time. These observations are difficult to reconcile with the simple model of a continental margin advanced in the hypothesis of plate tectonics.

Alaska↗

USGS1979

Palladium, platinum, and rhodium concentrations in mafic and ultramafic rocks from the Kizildag and Guleman areas, Turkey, and the Faryab and Esfandagheh-Abdasht areas, Iran

The Kizildag and Guleman areas, Turkey, and the Faryab and Esfandagheh-Abdasht areas, Iran, have produced chromite from ophiolite complexes consisting of harzburgite tectonite, dunite tectonite containing chromitite, pyroxenite, wehrlite, and gabbro. Forty-six samples from these complexes were analyzed in order to investigate the possibility of platinum-group metals being present that could be produced as byproducts. The results, however, indicate concentrations of palladium, platinum, and rhodium ranging up to 46 ppb (parts per billion), 55 ppb, and 24 ppb, respectively. The concentration levels and ratios of these metals are similar to other alpine ultramafic bodies that have been analyzed by modern analytical techniques. Ten samples from massive sulfide deposits in the Gunes and Ergani-Maden areas, Turkey, and the Sheikh Ali mine, Iran, were analyzed also. The results of the analysis suggests a low potential for byproduct palladium, platinum, and rhodium production in these ophiolite-associated massive sulfide deposits. The four ultramafic and mafic areas in Turkey and Iran under consideration have, and are, producing in 1978 chromite from podiform chromitites in alpine-type complexes. Because of the known association of chromitites and platinum-group metals, a collection of chromitites was made to check their palladium, platinum, and rhodium content to determine if economic concentrations might exist. Also, inasmuch as such rocks are thought to represent parts of the oceanic crust and upper mantle, data on platinum-group elements from these rocks can provide information to design geochemical models for the distribution of these elements. During the field excursions of the CENTO Working Group on Volcanic and Intrusive Rocks and Their Associated Ore Deposits, the Kizildag and Gunes areas, Turkey, were sampled in 1974 and the Guleman area, Turkey; Faryab and Esfandagheh-Abdasht areas, Iran, were sampled in 1975. In addition, samples of massive sulfide ores from the Ergani-Maden area, Turkey, were also collected for analysis, and the results included here. In this report the geologic framework of these areas is briefly examined as a background for interpreting the concentrations of palladium, platinum, and rhodium in the chromitites and ultramafic and mafic rocks. Comparisons of these analyses with analyses from other areas containing similar rocks show few differences in concentration or proportions of these three platinum-group metals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

Ice sheet history from Antarctic Continental Margin sediments: The ANTOSTRAT approach

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is today an important part of the global climate engine, and probably has been so for most of its long existence. However, the details of its history are poorly known, despite the measurement and use, over two decades, of low-latitude proxies of ice sheet volume. An additional way of determining ice sheet history is now available, based on understanding terrigenous sediment transport and deposition under a glacial regime. It requires direct sampling of the prograded wedge of glacial sediments deposited at the Antarctic continental margin (and of derived sediments on the continental rise) at a small number of key sites, and combines the resulting data using numerical models of ice sheet development. The new phase of sampling is embodied mainly in a suite of proposals to the Ocean Drilling Program, generated by separate regional proponent groups co-ordinated through ANTOSTRAT (the Antarctic Offshore Acoustic Stratigraphy initiative). The first set of margin sites has now been drilled as ODP Leg 178 to the Antarctic Peninsula margin, and a first, short season of inshore drilling at Cape Roberts, Ross Sea, has been completed. Leg 178 and Cape Roberts drilling results are described briefly here, together with an outline of key elements of the overall strategy for determining glacial history, and of the potential contributions of drilling other Antarctic margins investigated by ANTOSTRAT. ODP Leg 178 also recovered continuous ultra-high-resolution Holocene biogenic sections at two sites within a protected, glacially-overdeepened basin (Palmer Deep) on the inner continental shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula. These and similar sites from around the Antarctic margin are a valuable resource when linked with ice cores and equivalent sections at lower latitude sites for studies of decadal and millenial-scale climate variation.

Terra Antarctica↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Foggy Island Bay↗

USGS2020

Influence of niche breadth and position on the historical biogeography of seafaring scincid lizards

Niche breadth and position can influence diversification among closely related species or populations, yet limited empirical data exist concerning the predictability of the outcomes. We explored the effects of these factors on the evolution of the Emoia atrocostata species group, an insular radiation of lizards in the western Pacific Ocean and Indo-Australasia composed of both endemic and widespread species that differ in niche occupancy. We used molecular data and phylogeographical diffusion models to estimate the timing and patterns of range expansion, and ancestral reconstruction methods to infer shifts in ecology. We show evidence of multidirectional spread from a centre of origin in western Micronesia, and that the phyletic diversity of the group is derived from a putative habitat specialist that survives in the littoral zone. This species is composed of paraphyletic lineages that represent stages or possible endpoints in the continuum toward speciation. Several descendant species have transitioned to either strand or interior forest habitat, but only on remote islands with depauperate terrestrial faunas. Our results suggest that the atrocostata group might be in the early phases of a Wilsonian taxon cycle and that the capacity to tolerate salt stress has promoted dispersal and colonization of remote oceanic islands. Divergence itself, however, is largely driven by geographical isolation rather than shifts in ecology.

Biological Journal of the Linnean Society↗

USGS2009

Monitoring and modeling shoreline response due to shoreface nourishment on a high-energy coast

Shoreface nourishment can be an efficient technique to feed sediment into the littoral zone without the order of magnitude cost increase incurred by directly nourishing the beach. An erosion hot spot at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, USA, threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location, a new beneficial reuse plan was implemented in May 2005 for the sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. From 2005 to 2007, approximately 230,000 m of sand was placed annually at depths between 9 and 14 m, in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves could potentially feed sediment onto the section of beach experiencing critical erosion. The evolution of the disposal mound and adjacent beach were monitored with 12 multibeam bathymetric surveys, and over 40 high-resolution beach topographic surveys. In addition, sediment transport processes were investigated using sediment grab samples, acoustic Doppler profilers, and two separate models: a cross-shore profile model (UNIBEST-TC) and a coastal area model (Delft3D). The results of the monitoring and modeling demonstrate that the disposal mound may be effective in dissipating wave energy striking this vulnerable stretch of coast with negligible shadowing effects, but a positive shoreline response can only be achieved by placing the sediment in water depths less than 5 m.

California↗

USGS2015

Transdisciplinary science: A path to understanding the interactions among ocean acidification, ecosystems, and society

The global nature of ocean acidification (OA) transcends habitats, ecosystems, regions, and science disciplines. The scientific community recognizes that the biggest challenge in improving understanding of how changing OA conditions affect ecosystems, and associated consequences for human society, requires integration of experimental, observational, and modeling approaches from many disciplines over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Such transdisciplinary science is the next step in providing relevant, meaningful results and optimal guidance to policymakers and coastal managers. We discuss the challenges associated with integrating ocean acidification science across funding agencies, institutions, disciplines, topical areas, and regions, and the value of unifying science objectives and activities to deliver insights into local, regional, and global scale impacts. We identify guiding principles and strategies for developing transdisciplinary research in the ocean acidification science community.

Oceanography↗

USGS2017

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Midway Atoll, Wake Atoll↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska LLC has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

A generalized model for estimating the energy density of invertebrates

Invertebrate energy density (ED) values are traditionally measured using bomb calorimetry. However, many researchers rely on a few published literature sources to obtain ED values because of time and sampling constraints on measuring ED with bomb calorimetry. Literature values often do not account for spatial or temporal variability associated with invertebrate ED. Thus, these values can be unreliable for use in models and other ecological applications. We evaluated the generality of the relationship between invertebrate ED and proportion of dry-to-wet mass (pDM). We then developed and tested a regression model to predict ED from pDM based on a taxonomically, spatially, and temporally diverse sample of invertebrates representing 28 orders in aquatic (freshwater, estuarine, and marine) and terrestrial (temperate and arid) habitats from 4 continents and 2 oceans. Samples included invertebrates collected in all seasons over the last 19 y. Evaluation of these data revealed a significant relationship between ED and pDM ( r 2 = 0.96, p < 0.0001), where ED (as J/g wet mass) was estimated from pDM as ED = 22,960pDM − 174.2. Model evaluation showed that nearly all (98.8%) of the variability between observed and predicted values for invertebrate ED could be attributed to residual error in the model. Regression of observed on predicted values revealed that the 97.5% joint confidence region included the intercept of 0 (−103.0 ± 707.9) and slope of 1 (1.01 ± 0.12). Use of this model requires that only dry and wet mass measurements be obtained, resulting in significant time, sample size, and cost savings compared to traditional bomb calorimetry approaches. This model should prove useful for a wide range of ecological studies because it is unaffected by taxonomic, seasonal, or spatial variability.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2010

Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Sea-level rise and warming mediate coastal groundwater discharge in the Arctic

Groundwater discharge is an important mechanism through which fresh water and associated solutes are delivered to the ocean. Permafrost environments have traditionally been considered hydrogeologically inactive, yet with accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw, groundwater flow paths are activating and opening subsurface connections to the coastal zone. While warming has the potential to increase land-sea connectivity, sea-level change has the potential to alter land-sea hydraulic gradients and enhance coastal permafrost thaw, resulting in a complex interplay that will govern future groundwater discharge dynamics along Arctic coastlines. Here, we use a recently developed permafrost hydrological model that simulates variable-density groundwater flow and salinity-dependent freeze-thaw to investigate the impacts of sea-level change and land and ocean warming on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and salinity of coastal groundwater discharge. Results project both an increase and decrease in discharge with climate change depending on the rate of warming and sea-level change. Under high warming and low sea-level rise scenarios, results show up to a 58% increase in coastal groundwater discharge by 2100 due to the formation of a supra-permafrost aquifer that enhances freshwater delivery to the coastal zone. With higher rates of sea-level rise, the increase in discharge due to warming is reduced to 21% as sea-level rise decreased land-sea hydraulic gradients. Under lower warming scenarios for which supra-permafrost groundwater flow was not established, discharge decreased by up to 26% between 1980 and 2100 for high sea-level rise scenarios and increased only 8% under low sea-level rise scenarios. Thus, regions with higher warming rates and lower rates of sea-level change (e.g. northern Nunavut, Canada) will experience a greater increase in discharge than regions with lower warming rates and higher rates of sea-level change. The magnitude, location and salinity of discharge have important implications for ecosystem function, water quality, and carbon dynamics in coastal zones.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS1999

Does Europa have a subsurface ocean? Evaluation of the geological evidence

It has been proposed that Jupiter's satellite Europa currently possesses a global subsurface ocean of liquid water. Galileo gravity data verify that the satellite is differentiated into an outer H 2 O layer about 100 km thick but cannot determine the current physical state of this layer (liquid or solid). Here we summarize the geological evidence regarding an extant subsurface ocean, concentrating on Galileo imaging data. We describe and assess nine pertinent lines of geological evidence: impact morphologies, lenticulae, cryovolcanic features, pull‐apart bands, chaos, ridges, surface frosts, topography, and global tectonics. An internal ocean would be a simple and comprehensive explanation for a broad range of observations; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that all of the surface morphologies could be due to processes in warm, soft ice with only localized or partial melting. Two different models of impact flux imply very different surface ages for Europa; the model favored here indicates an average age of ∼50 Myr. Searches for evidence of current geological activity on Europa, such as plumes or surface changes, have yielded negative results to date. The current existence of a global subsurface ocean, while attractive in explaining the observations, remains inconclusive. Future geophysical measurements are essential to determine conclusively whether or not there is a liquid water ocean within Europa today.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

USGS1996

Crustal structure of a transform plate boundary: San Francisco Bay and the central California continental margin

Wide-angle seismic data collected during the Bay Area Seismic Imaging Experiment provide new glimpses of the deep structure of the San Francisco Bay Area Block and across the offshore continental margin. San Francisco Bay is underlain by a veneer (<300 m) of sediments, beneath which P wave velocities increase rapidly from 5.2 km/s to 6.0 km/s at 7 km depth, consistent with rocks of the Franciscan subduction assemblage. The base of the Franciscan at-15-18 km depth is marked by a strong wide-angle reflector, beneath which lies an 8- to 10-km-thick lower crust with an average velocity of 6.75??0.15 km/s. The lower crust of the Bay Area Block may be oceanic in origin, but its structure and reflectivity indicate that it has been modified by shearing and/or magmatic intrusion. Wide-angle reflections define two layers within the lower crust, with velocities of 6.4-6.6 km/s and 6.9-7.3 km/s. Prominent subhorizontal reflectivity observed at near-vertical incidence resides principally in the lowermost layer, the top of which corresponds to the "6-s reflector" of Brocher et al. [1994]. Rheological modeling suggests that the lower crust beneath the 6-s reflector is the weakest part of the lithosphere; the horizontal shear zone suggested by Furlong et al. [1989] to link the San Andreas and Hayward/Calaveras fault systems may actually be a broad zone of shear deformation occupying the lowermost crust. A transect across the continental margin from the paleotrench to the Hayward fault shows a deep crustal structure that is more complex than previously realized. Strong lateral variability in seismic velocity and wide-angle reflectivity suggests that crustal composition changes across major transcurrent fault systems. Pacific oceanic crust extends 40-50 km landward of the paleotrench but, contrary to prior models, probably does not continue beneath the Salinian Block, a Cretaceous arc complex that lies west of the San Andreas fault in the Bay Area. The thickness (10 km) and high lower-crustal velocity of Pacific oceanic crust suggest that it was underplated by magmatism associated with the nearby Pioneer seamount. The Salinian Block consists of a 15-km-thick layer of velocity 6.0-6.2 km/s overlying a 5-km-thick, high-velocity (7.0 km/s) lower crust that may be oceanic crust, Cretaceous arc-derived lower crust, or a magmatically underplated layer. The strong structural variability across the margin attests to the activity of strike-slip faulting prior to and during development of the transcurrent Pacific/North American plate boundary around 29 Ma. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2008

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

USGS2012

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗