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Snake River fall Chinook salmon life history investigations: Annual report 2011 (April 2011 - March 2012)

Executive Summary Chapter One &ndash; This chapter was published in the Transactions of the American Fisheries Society in 2012. We conducted a three-year radiotelemetry study in the lower Snake River to answer the questions: do fall Chinook salmon juveniles pass dams during winter when bypass systems and structures designed to prevent mortality are not operated; does downstream movement rate vary annually, seasonally, and from reservoir to reservoir; and, what are some of the factors that contribute to annual, seasonal, and spatial variation in downstream movement rate? Fall Chinook salmon juveniles moved downstream up to 169 km and fast enough (7.5 km/d) such that large percentages (up to 93%) of the fish passed one or more dams during winter. Mean downstream movement rate varied annually (9.2-11.3 km/d), increased from winter (7.5 km/d) to spring (16.4 km/d), and increased (6.9-16.8 km/d) as fish moved downstream from reservoir to reservoir. Fish condition factor at tagging explained some of the annual variation ( P &le; 0.01) in downstream movement rate, whereas water particle velocity ( P &le;0.0001) and temperature ( P &le;0.0001) explained portions of the seasonal variation. An increase in migrational disposition as fish moved downstream helped explain the spatial variation ( P =0.05-0.07). The potential cost of winter movement might be reduced survival due to turbine passage when the bypass systems and spillway passage structures are not operated. Efforts to understand and increase passage survival of winter migrants in large impoundments might help to rehabilitate some imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Chapter Two &ndash; Natural juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the Snake and Clearwater rivers exhibit two life history strategies. &ldquo;Ocean-type&rdquo; fish migrate out to the ocean in their first summer of life as subyearlings, but &ldquo;reservoir-type&rdquo; fish delay seaward migration during the summer, and some overwinter in reservoirs before continuing their migration the following spring as yearlings. Earlier emerging fish produced in the Snake River tend to adopt the ocean-type life history whereas many of the later emerging fish from the Clearwater River tend to adopt the reservoirtype life history. The underlying cause of the reservoir-type life history is poorly understood, but we believe there may be link to physiological development. We used traditional markers of the parr-smolt transformation (smoltification), including gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity and thyroid hormone levels, along with gene expression microarrays to assess the development of ocean-type juvenile fall Chinook salmon and then compared it to that of juvenile fall Chinook salmon from the Clearwater River. We showed that parr in the Snake River are physiologically distinct from actively-migrating smolts but smolts migrating early and late in the summer and fall are physiologically similar. Juvenile fall Chinook salmon collected from the Clearwater River were similar in size to early-migrating smolts in the Snake River but were most physiologically similar to Snake River parr. Genes differentially expressed between Snake River parr and smolts and between fish from the Clearwater River and smolts from the Snake River were involved in the cell cycle, steroid metabolism and other metabolic pathways, and DNA repair and packaging. Many of the genes differentially expressed in these comparisons had expression patterns that correlated with gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity, suggesting that they were related to smoltification and migration status. Chapter Three &ndash; Natural subyearlings produced in the Clearwater River are exposed to cool (~10-12&deg;C) temperatures when water is released from Dworshak Reservoir for summer flow augmentation. Total dissolved gas (TDG) levels range from 100-110% in the lower Clearwater iv River. When fish move into the Snake River, they encounter temperatures up to 24&deg;C at the surface which have the potential to incur gas bubble disease (GBD) in fish as dissolved gases in their bodies expand under warmer temperatures. This may result in both direct and indirect mortality, but this situation has been little studied. We conducted laboratory experiments to examine subyearling mortality rates and incidence and severity of GBD in fish that were moved between waters that varied in TDG and temperature. Fish experienced significant mortality only at temperatures of 25&deg;C, which increased with exposure time. However there was no significance difference in mortality between fish acclimated to 100% TDG and 110% TDG. Fish that died did show signs of GBD. Generally, signs of GBD such as bubbles in the lateral line and unpaired fins were higher in fish acclimated at 110% TDG than in fish acclimated at 100% TDG, but there were few trends related to exposure temperature. Field measurements of TDG showed that TDG ranged from about 100% to 122.5% at some locations. Generally, TDG fluctuated daily, up to 8% during August and early September, and was highest late in the afternoon and lowest in the early morning. Laboratory results and field monitoring demonstrated that emigrating juvenile salmon can potentially be at risk from elevated temperatures, TDG, and GBD albeit to an unknown extent, which may increase their vulnerability to predation. Chapter Four &ndash; We conducted monthly beam trawling in Lower Granite and Little Goose reservoirs to describe the seasonal abundance of benthic epifauna that are potentially important as prey to juvenile fall Chinook salmon. The predominant taxa collected were Siberian prawns, the opossum shrimp Neomysis mercedis , and the amphipod Corophium sp. Prawns were relatively abundant at shallow sites in both reservoirs in June, but were more abundant at deep sites in lower and middle reservoir reaches in autumn. Prawn densities were commonly <0.2/m2. Prawn length-frequency data indicated that there were at least two size classes. Juvenile prawns present in shallow water more often than adult prawns, which were generally only found in deep water by autumn. Ovigerous prawns had an average of 171 eggs, which represented about 11.5% of their body weight. Limited diet analyses suggested that prawns consumed Corophium , Neomysis , and aquatic insects. Neomysis dominated all catches both in terms of abundance and biomass, and they were more abundant in Lower Granite compared to Little Goose reservoir. Neomysis were more abundant at shallow sites than at deep sites. Corophium were present in our collections but were never abundant, probably because our trawl was not effective at capturing them. The caloric content of prawns (4,782 Kcal), Neomysis (4,962 Kcal), and Corophium (4,926 Kcal) indicates that these prey would be energetically profitable for juvenile salmon. Subyearling fall Chinook salmon prey heavily on Neomysis and Corophium at times, but the importance of prawns as prey is uncertain.

Oregon, Washington

Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity

Variation in life‐history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among‐individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness‐related traits among otherwise‐identical individuals. An improved understanding of life‐history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33‐yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among‐individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non‐breeders. We detected age‐related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31 yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life‐history traits. We found that among‐individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictions from life‐history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long‐lived, high‐latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.

Ecology

Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Evidence of widespread natural reproduction by lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in the Michigan waters of Lake Huron

Localized natural reproduction of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Huron has occurred since the 1980s near Thunder Bay, Michigan. During 2004&ndash;2006, USGS spring and fall bottom trawl surveys captured 63 wild juvenile lake trout at depths ranging from 37&ndash;73 m at four of five ports in the Michigan waters of the main basin of Lake Huron, more than five times the total number captured in the previous 30-year history of the surveys. Relatively high catches of wild juvenile lake trout in bottom trawls during 2004&ndash;2006 suggest that natural reproduction by lake trout has increased and occurred throughout the Michigan waters of the main basin. Increased catches of wild juvenile lake trout in the USGS fall bottom trawl survey were coincident with a drastic decline in alewife abundance, but data were insufficient to determine what mechanism may be responsible for increased natural reproduction by lake trout. We recommend further monitoring of juvenile lake trout abundance and research into early life history of lake trout in Lake Huron.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Disease in a dynamic landscape: host behavior and wildfire reduce amphibian chytrid infection

Disturbances are often expected to magnify effects of disease, but these effects may depend on the ecology, behavior, and life history of both hosts and pathogens. In many ecosystems, wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance and thus could directly or indirectly affect dynamics of many diseases. To determine how probability of infection by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) varies relative to habitat use by individuals, wildfire, and host characteristics, we sampled 404 boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) across Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Bd causes chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease linked with widespread amphibian declines, including the boreal toad. Probability of infection was similar for females and the combined group of males and juveniles. However, only 9% of terrestrial toads were infected compared to >30% of aquatic toads, and toads captured in recently burned areas were half as likely to be infected as toads in unburned areas. We suspect these large differences in infection reflect habitat choices by individuals that affect pathogen exposure and persistence, especially in burned forests where warm, arid conditions could limit Bd growth. Our results show that natural disturbances such as wildfire and the resulting diverse habitats can influence infection across large landscapes, potentially maintaining local refuges and host behaviors that facilitate evolution of disease resistance.

Montana

Re-examining the growing degree day minimum for grass carp spawning initiation in Lake Erie: Have we missed the mark?

Understanding the timing of life history processes of invasive fish species, such as adult aggregations during spawning, allows natural resource managers to optimize targeted population control efforts. Temperature-based estimates of the timing of spawning initiation for grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) exist from its native range, but have not previously been developed for grass carp reproduction in its invaded range in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. We accounted for differences among methods across studies and calculated cumulative growing degree days (GDD) for the dates of grass carp egg capture in Lake Erie tributaries (Sandusky, Maumee, and Huron rivers) during 2015–2024 and compared these values to the existing GDD base 15°C requirement estimate from the native range (633 GDD–15°C). The earliest egg detection in Lake Erie (Sandusky River) was 19 GDD–15°C or 361 GDD–5°C (latest egg detection was 2285 GDD–5°C from the Sandusky River), indicating that spawning was initiated up to 25 days earlier than would be predicted by the native range GDD. Moreover, spawning in Lake Erie tributaries occurred earlier than predicted for 58% of spawning events examined based on the native range GDD. The GDD values for spawning initiation in Lake Erie tributaries can be used to refine the timing of control efforts targeting pre-spawn and spawning adult fish, inform the timing of egg sampling, and provide linkages to existing early life stage models to infer the length of the growing season available for age-0 fish to reassess tributary suitability.

Ohio

Environmental and medical geochemistry in urban disaster response and preparedness

History abounds with accounts of cities that were destroyed or significantly damaged by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildland–urban wildfires, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, urban firestorms, terrorist attacks, and armed conflicts. Burgeoning megacities place ever more people in the way of harm from future disasters. In addition to the physical damage, casualties, and injuries they cause, sudden urban disasters can also release into the environment large volumes of potentially hazardous materials. Environmental and medical geochemistry investigations help us to (1) understand the sources and environmental behavior of disaster materials, (2) assess potential threats the materials pose to the urban environment and health of urban populations, (3) develop strategies for their cleanup/disposal, and (4) anticipate and mitigate potential environmental and health effects from future urban disasters.

Elements

Grizzly bear management in Yellowstone National Park: The heart of recovery in the Yellowstone Ecosystem

Grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) management in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in the past quarter century has resulted in more than doubling of the population from around 200 to more than 500, expansion of range back into habitats where the bear has extirpated more than a century ago, and a move toward removal from the U.S. Endangered Species list. At the center of this success story are the management programs in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Regulations that restrict human activity, camping, and food storage, elimination of human food and garbage as attractants, and ranger attendance of roadside bears have all resulted in the population of grizzlies in YNP approaching carrying capacity. Recent studies suggest, however, that YNP alone is too small to support the current population, making management beyond the park boundary important and necessary to the demographics of the population as a whole. Demographic analyses suggest a source-sink dynamic exists within the GYE, with YNP and lands outside the park within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone (RZ) representing source habitats, whereas lands beyond the RZ constitute sinks. The source-sink demography in the GYE is indicative of carnivore conservation issues worldwide where many national parks or preserves designed to protect out natural resources are inadequate in size or shape to provide all necessary life history requirements for these wide-ranging species. Additionally, wide-ranging behavior and long-distance dispersal seem inherent to large carnivores, so mortality around the edges is virtually inevitable, and conservation in the GYE is inextricably linked to management regimes not only within YNP, but within the GYE as a whole. We discuss those needs here.

Wyoming

The North American Freshwater Migratory Fish Database (NAFMFD): Characterizing the migratory life histories of freshwater fishes of Canada, the United States and Mexico

Aim Migratory freshwater fishes are those that must access discrete habitats to complete their life cycles. Freshwater fish migrations occur around the world and provide numerous ecosystem services for humans and natural systems; however, many migratory species are in decline globally. A limiting factor to successfully conserve freshwater migratory fishes is that the migratory life histories of many species are unknown or only partially described. To provide researchers with critical and comprehensive information to conserve migratory fishes, we developed the North American Freshwater Migratory Fish Database (NAFMFD). Location Canada, Mexico and the United States. Taxon Freshwater fish. Methods To develop this database, we assigned migratory status, pattern and behaviour to a comprehensive list of freshwater fish species found throughout North America. We assembled the database which included assignments (i.e. migratory status, pattern and behaviour) as well as the sources used to make the assignments. Researchers and managers from across North America reviewed the database for completeness and accuracy on the migratory life histories of fishes. Results The database synthesizes current knowledge of migratory status, pattern and behaviour of native and non-native freshwater fishes throughout North America, including 1250 species representing 79 families and 325 genera. Results showcase the diversity of migratory life histories of freshwater fishes on the continent, including that at least 25% of North American freshwater fishes are migratory, 23% are non-migratory and 44% have undetermined migratory status. Main conclusions NAFMFD improves the quality of migratory data accessible to researchers, which supports a more holistic understanding of the threats encountered by migratory fishes, including habitat fragmentation. The approach we used in developing NAFMFD can provide guidance for developing similar databases in other regions. Collectively, our work offers new insights into the range of freshwater fish migratory life histories, stimulating a need to better understand this diversity globally.

Journal of Biogeography

Natural avalanches and transportation: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

In January 2004, two natural avalanches (destructive class 3) derailed a freight train in John F. Stevens Canyon, on the southern boundary of Glacier National Park. The railroad tracks were closed for 29 hours due to cleanup and lingering avalanche hazard, backing up 112km of trains and shutting down Amtrak’s passenger service. The incident marked the fourth time in three winters that natural avalanches have disrupted transportation in the canyon, which is also the route of U.S. Highway 2. It was the latest in a 94-year history of accidents that includes three fatalities and the destruction of a major highway bridge. Despite that history and the presence of over 40 avalanche paths in the 16km canyon, mitigation is limited to nine railroad snow sheds and occasional highway closures. This case study examines natural avalanche cycles of the past 28 winters using data from field observations, a Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL station, and data collected since 2001 at a high-elevation weather station. The avalanches occurred when storms with sustained snowfall buried a persistent near-surface faceted layer and/or were followed by rain-on-snow or dramatic warming (as much as 21 o C in 30 minutes). Natural avalanche activity peaked when temperatures clustered near freezing (mean of -1.5 o C at 1800m elev.). Avalanches initiated through rapid loading, rain falling on new snow, and/ or temperature-related changes in the mechanical properties of slabs. Lastly, the case study describes how recent incidents have prompted a unique partnership of land management agencies, private corporations and non-profit organizations to develop an avalanche mitigation program for the transportation corridor.

Montana

Genomic divergence, local adaptation, and complex demographic history may inform management of a popular sportfish species complex

The Neosho Bass ( Micropterus velox ), a former subspecies of the keystone top-predator and globally popular Smallmouth Bass ( M. dolomieu ), is endemic and narrowly restricted to small, clear streams of the Arkansas River Basin in the Central Interior Highlands (CIH) ecoregion, USA. Previous studies have detected some morphological, genetic, and genomic differentiation between the Neosho and Smallmouth Basses; however, the extent of neutral and adaptive divergence and patterns of intraspecific diversity are poorly understood. Furthermore, lineage diversification has likely been impacted by gene flow in some Neosho populations, which may be due to a combination of natural biogeographic processes and anthropogenic introductions. We assessed: (1) lineage divergence, (2) local directional selection (adaptive divergence), and (3) demographic history among Smallmouth Bass populations in the CIH using population genomic analyses of 50,828 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained through ddRAD-seq. Neosho and Smallmouth Bass formed monophyletic clades with 100% bootstrap support. We identified two major lineages within each species. We discovered six Neosho Bass populations (two nonadmixed and four admixed) and three nonadmixed Smallmouth Bass populations. We detected 29 SNPs putatively under directional selection in the Neosho range, suggesting populations may be locally adapted. Two populations were admixed via recent asymmetric secondary contact, perhaps after anthropogenic introduction. Two other populations were likely admixed via combinations of ancient and recent processes. These species comprise independently evolving lineages, some having experienced historical and natural admixture. These results may be critical for management of Neosho Bass as a distinct species and may aid in the conservation of other species with complex biogeographic histories.

Ecology and Evolution

Pyritization history in the middle to upper Cambrian Alum Shale, Scania Sweden: Evidence for ongoing diagenetic processes

Detailed diagenetic studies of the late Cambrian Alum Shale in southern Sweden were undertaken across an interval that includes the peak Steptoean Positive Carbon Isotope Excursion (SPICE) event to evaluate the pyrite mineralization history in the formation. Samples were collected from the Andrarum-3 core (Scania, Sweden); here the Alum was deposited in the distal, siliciclastic mudstone-rich end of a shelf system. Abundant cryptobioturbation is observed in the Alum, which points to oxic–dysoxic conditions prevailing during deposition. Petrographic examination of polished thin sections ( n = 65) reveals the presence of numerous texturally distinct types of pyrite, including matrix framboids, two different types of framboid concretions (those with rims of iron-dolomite and those lacking rims), disseminated euhedral pyrite crystals, concretions of euhedral pyrite crystals, overgrowths of pyrite on these different pyrite generations, anhedral pyrite intergrown with bedding parallel mineralized fractures (i.e., “beef”), and massive vertical/subvertical accumulations of pyrite. Paragenetic relationships outline the relative timing of formation of the texturally distinct pyrite. Framboids and framboid concretions formed prior to precipitation of any euhedral pyrite crystals, and these pyrite generations precipitated prior to the pyrite overgrowths on them. As Alum Shale sediments are all distorted by these texturally different pyrite generations, they are likely to have formed early in the postdepositional history of the formation. In contrast, pyrite associated with “beef” is likely temporally related to the onset of hydrocarbon generation, which in this part of Sweden is thought to have been many tens of millions of years after deposition. Because vertical/subvertical massive pyrite features distort “beef,” they clearly postdate it. Of all these pyrite textures, only framboid concretions appear to be restricted to the SPICE interval. The texturally distinct nature of the pyrite generations, along with evidence of their formation at different times in the postdepositional history of the Alum Shale, is the key outcome of this petrographic study. Because the petrographic data presented herein point to a postdeposition origin for all generations of pyrite, diagenetic processes—not those processes associated with deposition—were responsible for the complex pyritization history observed in the Alum, in the Andrarum-3 core.

Scania

In search of the Abrams post office, Trinity County

An understanding of earth history depends in part on stratigraphy, a division of geology in which the distinctive features of natural units or formations of layered rocks are studied and described and names are assigned to them. The procedures for describing and naming rock units in a uniform way are incorporated in documents known as stratigraphic codes. The North American Stratigraphic Code (1983) is currently used by most geologists in the United States when formation names are selected. Rock unit names consist of a geographic name, generally taken from a natural feature near the locality where the unit was first described, followed by a descriptive feature, usually the dominant rock type in the unit. Although the procedure for naming a rock unit seems straightforward, stratigraphic nomenclature can lead to confusion when the principles outlined in the stratigraphic code are ignored or incorrectly applied. This paper traces the naming of the Abrams Mica Schist, one of the major units of the northern California Klamath Mountains. It describes how uncertainty about the location of the geographic feature after which the unit was named has led to conflicting terminology. The search revealed some interesting history of the early days of mining in the Coffee Creek region of the Trinity Alps in Trinity County.

California Geology

Late Quaternary landscape evolution in the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, Northern Tibet: A framework for examining the links between glaciation, lake level changes and alluvial fan formation

The Qaidam Basin in Northern Tibet is one of the largest hyper-arid intermontane basins on Earth. Alluvial fans, pediment surfaces, shorelines and a thick succession of sediments within the basin, coupled with moraines and associated landforms in the adjacent high mountain catchments of the Kunlun Mountains, record a complex history of Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental change and landscape evolution. The region provides an ideal natural laboratory to examine the interaction between tectonics and climate within a continent-continent collision zone, and to quantify rates of landscape evolution as controlled by climate and the associated glacial and hydrological changes in hyper-arid and adjacent high-altitude environments. Geomorphic mapping, analysis of landforms and sediments, and terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclide surface exposure and optically stimulated luminescence dating serve to define the timing of formation of Late Quaternary landforms along the southern and northwestern margins of the Qaidam Basin, and in the Burhan Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains adjacent to the basin on the south. These dates provide a framework that suggests links between climatic amelioration, deglaciation, lake desiccation and alluvial fan evolution. At least three glacial advances are defined in the Burham Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains. On the northern side of this range these occurred in the penultimate glacial cycle or early in the last glacial cycle, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)/Lateglacial and during the Holocene. On the south side of the range, advances occurred during the penultimate glacial cycle, MIS-3, and possibly the LGM, Lateglacial or Holocene. Several distinct phases of alluvial fan sedimentation are likewise defined. Alluvial fans formed on the southern side of the Kunlun Mountains prior to 200 ka. Ice-contact alluvial fans formed during the penultimate glacial and during MIS-3. Extensive incised alluvial fans that form the main valley fills north of the Burham Budai and extend into the Qaidam Basin are dated to ???30 ka. These ages suggest that there was a period of alluvial fan aggradation and valley filling that persisted until desiccation of the large lakes in the Qaidam Basin post ???30 ka led to base level lowering and active incision of streams into the valley fills. The continued Lateglacial and Holocene desiccation likely led to further degradation of the valley fills. Ice wedge casts in the Qaidam Basin date to ???15 ka, indicating significant Lateglacial climatic amelioration, while Holocene loess deposits north of the Burham Bdudai suggest that aridity has increased in the region since the early Holocene. From these observations, we infer that the major landscape changes within high glaciated mountains and their adjacent hyper-arid intermontane basins, such as the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, occur rapidly over millennial timescales during periods of climatic instability. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Quaternary International

Comparison of fish assemblages in two disjoined segments of an oxbow lake in relation to connectivity

Disconnection between adjacent habitat patches is one of the most notable factors contributing to the decreased biotic integrity of global ecosystems. Connectivity is especially threatened in river&ndash;floodplain ecosystems in which channel modifications have disrupted the lateral links between the main river channel and floodplain lakes. In this study, we examined the interaction between the interconnectedness of floodplain lakes and main river channels and fish assemblage descriptors. Fish assemblages in two segments of an oxbow lake, one connected to and the other isolated from the Yazoo River, Mississippi, were estimated with daytime boat electrofishing during 2007&ndash;2010. The frequency of connection for the connected segment ranged from zero to seven individual events per year (mean, &sim;2). The timing of most connection events reflected regional precipitation patterns. Greater species richness, diversity, and evenness were observed in the connected segment. Additionally, the connected segment had a greater abundance of piscivores and periodic life history strategists. All fishes collected solely in the connected segment were typically riverine in nature, whereas fishes collected only in the disconnected segment were more lacustrine adapted. These results suggest that periodic connection and the associated habitat heterogeneity that it provides are important for maintaining fish species richness and diversity in large-river floodplain lakes. We suggest that maintenance or restoration of connection be an integral part of fluvial ecosystem management plans.

Mississippi

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M , of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M , (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age ( t max ), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M . We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t max -based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t max -based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on t max and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K . It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t max -based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t max -based estimator ( M = 4.899 t max &#x2212; 0.916 "> M = 4.899 t − 0.916 max M=4.899tmax−0.916 , prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method ( M = 4.118 K 0.73 L &#x221E; &#x2212; 0.33 "> M = 4.118 K 0.73 L − 0.33 ∞ M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

ICES Journal of Marine Science

Evidence for size‐based predation risk during Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt migration.

Hatchery supplementation is frequently employed during the conservation and recovery of imperilled salmon populations. At the smolt stage, hatchery rearing practices often produce individuals that are larger than wild conspecifics. Under this ‘bigger is better’ strategy, it is assumed that larger fish are less susceptible to predation during migration. We tested this hypothesis on hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) smolts with fork lengths representative of those of natural and hatchery origins, allowing us to isolate the influence of size from rearing history. From May to June 2023 we characterized predation risk for acoustic-tagged ( n = 50) and tethered ( n = 192) smolts of various sizes through a mostly free-flowing section of the Penobscot River, Maine, USA. Across both methods, more than 50% of smolts were predated, with the majority of predation events being attributed to smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Tethered smolts of all sizes experienced similar predation risk. In the acoustic telemetry component of this study, smaller, wild-sized smolts incurred greater overall mortality relative to standard hatchery sizes (95% vs. 75%), the majority of which occurred within 3 km of the release site. Collectively, these results allude to a strong predation influence imposed by smallmouth bass on smolts in freshwater sections of the Penobscot River and small-bodied migrants may incur greater predation risk, particularly near stocking sites.

Journal of Fish Biology

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona