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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Evidence for late Holocene relative sea-level fall from reconnaissance stratigraphical studies in an area of earthquake-subsided intertidal deposits, Isla Chiloé, southern Chile

At Río Pudeto and Quetalmahue, two estuaries along the northern shore of Isla Chiloé that subsided as much as 2 m in the great 1960 earthquake, reconnaissance stratigraphical studies reveal evidence of a regressive, nearshore marine sequence. The intertidal deposits include a peat-bearing, high-intertidal marsh sequence as thick as 1.4 m overlying shell- and foraminifera-bearing silt and clay layers presumed to represent a deeper water, low-intertidal environment. Stratigraphy indicates a relative sea-level fall since about 5000 years BP as evidenced by radiocarbon ages that constrain the peat-bearing sequences. Locally, low-intertidal silt and clay overlie high-intertidal peat layers, but such minor transgressions cannot be correlated from site to site. At Río Pudeto, the youngest foraminifera-bearing silt deposit is no younger than 1200 years BP. The youngest age of shells at Quetalmahue is about 2600 years BP. The oldest peat-bearing deposits that are not overlain by silt deposits are about 1350 years BP at Río Pudeto, and as old as 4900 years BP at Quetalmahue. At Río Pudeto, peat-bearing deposits, which are overlain by silt and clay, range in age from 760 to 5430 years BP, and at Quetalmahue from 290 to 5290 years BP. A beach terrace on the northwest coast of the Isla is estimated to have been emergent since 1150 + 130 years ago. Although some relatively abrupt transgressions may be due to sudden coseismic subsidence, data are not sufficient to document regional subsidence during individual plate-interface earthquakes. Seven earthquakes in south central Chile since 1520, especially those that occurred in 1575, 1737, and 1837, are thought to have been of a magnitude comparable to that of the 1960 earthquake. Although the sedimentological effects of the 1960 earthquake on the intertidal zone were dramatic, only limited evidence of possible historic earthquakes is found on Isla Chiloé and nearby islands; the ages and displacements of these earthquakes are indeterminable. Dead forests still mark some locations that subsided into the intertidal zone during the 1960 earthquake, particularly at Río Pudeto and southern coastal Chiloé. There is little evidence of post-1960 growth in any of these subsided areas. Tree-ring counts and tree-diameter measurements provide evidence that these trees survived the 1837 earthquake, and probably survived the 1737 earthquake, strongly suggesting that these earthquakes were of smaller magnitude than the 1960 event, or that the epicentre locations were further removed than the 1960 epicentre from Isla Chiloé, and that earthquake-induced relative sea-level changes differed from those occurring in 1960.

Isla Chiloé↗
USGS2016

Using science-policy integration to improve ecosystem science and inform decision-making: Lessons from U.S. LTERs

This Special Session took place on 12 August 2015 at the 100th Meeting of the Ecological Society of America in Baltimore, Maryland, and was conceived of and coordinated by the Science Policy Exchange. The Science Policy Exchange (SPE) is a boundary- spanning organization established to work at the interface of science and policy to confront pressing environmental challenges . SPE was created as a collaborative of six research institutions to increase the impact of science on environmental decisions. This session was organized by Marissa Weiss and co- organized by Pamela Templer, Kathleen Fallon Lambert, Jill Baron, Charles Driscoll, and David Foster. Along the theme of ESA ’ s Centennial meeting, the group of presenters represented collectively more than 100 years of experience in integration of science, policy, and outreach.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗
USGS2022

The Hawai'i groundwater recharge tool

This article discusses the design and implementation of the Hawai’i Groundwater Recharge Tool, an application for providing data and analyses of the impacts of land-cover modifications and changes in precipitation on groundwater-recharge rates for the island of O’ahu. This application uses simulation data based on a set of 29 land-cover types and 2 precipitation conditions to provide users with real-time recharge calculations for interactively defined land-cover modifications. The tool provides two visualizations, representing the land cover for the island and the resultant groundwater-recharge rates, and a set of metrics indicating the changes to groundwater recharge for relevant areas to present a set of easily interpretable outcomes based on user-defined scenarios. Users have varying degrees of control over the granularity of data input and output, allowing for the quick production of a roughly defined scenario, or more precise land-cover definitions. These modifications can be exported for further analysis. Heuristics are used to provide a responsive user interface and performant integration with the database containing the full set of simulation data. This tool is designed to provide user-friendly access to the information on the impacts of land-cover and precipitation changes on groundwater-recharge rates needed to assist in making data-driven decisions.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2020

Rapid peat development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests: Ecosystem changes across a 25-year chronosequence

Mangrove forests are among the world’s most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems. Despite growing understanding of factors controlling mangrove forest soil carbon stocks, there is a need to advance understanding of the speed of peat development beneath maturing mangrove forests— especially in created and restored mangrove forests that are intended to compensate for ecosystem functions lost during mangrove forest conversion to other land uses. To better quantify the rate of soil organic matter development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests, we measured ecosystem changes across a 25‐year chronosequence. We compared ecosystem properties in created, maturing mangrove forests to adjacent natural mangrove forests. We also quantified site‐specific changes that occurred between 2010 and 2016. Soil organic matter accumulated rapidly beneath maturing mangrove forests as sandy soils transitioned to organic‐rich soils (peat). Within 25 years, a 20‐cm deep peat layer developed. The time required for created mangrove forests to reach equivalency with natural mangrove forests was estimated as: (1) < 15 years for herbaceous and juvenile vegetation; (2) ~55 years for adult trees; (3) ~25 years for the upper soil layer (0‐10 cm); and (4) ~45‐80 years for the lower soil layer (10‐30 cm). For soil elevation change, the created mangrove forests were equivalent to or surpassed natural mangrove forests within the first five years. A comparison to chronosequence studies from other ecosystems indicates that the rate of soil organic matter accumulation beneath maturing mangrove forests may be among the fastest globally. In most peatland ecosystems, soil organic matter formation occurs slowly (centuries, millennia); however, these results show that mangrove peat formation can occur within decades. Peat development, primarily due to sub‐surface root accumulation, enables mangrove forests to sequester carbon, adjust their elevation relative to sea level, and adapt to changing conditions at the dynamic land‐ocean interface. In the face of climate change and rising sea levels, coastal managers are increasingly concerned with the longevity and functionality of coastal restoration efforts. Our results advance understanding of the pace of ecosystem development in created, maturing mangrove forests, which can improve predictions of mangrove forest responses to global change and ecosystem restoration.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Species distributions and the recognition of risk in restoration planning: A case study of salmonid fishes

One of the risks faced by habitat restoration practitioners is whether habitats included in restoration planning will be used by the target species or, conversely, whether habitats excluded from restoration planning would have benefited the target species. With the goal of providing a quantitative decision-making approach that represented varying levels of risk tolerance, we used multiple probability decision thresholds (PDT) to predict the range of occurrence for three anadromous fishes ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in a watershed in southwestern Washington, USA. For each species, we compared the predicted range of occurrence to the distribution used for restoration planning and quantified the amount of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers. Coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) had the broadest predicted range of occurrence (3061.6–6357.9 km; 0.75–0.25 PDT), followed by steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ; 1828.8–2836.8 km) and chum salmon ( O. keta ; 1373.9–1629.1 km). For each species, the predicted range of occurrence was similar or greater than the distribution used for restoration planning, suggesting that the current plan may exclude habitats that would benefit each species. Coho salmon had the greatest percentage of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers, followed by steelhead trout and chum salmon, respectively. Modeling species distributions at multiple risk-tolerance scenarios acknowledges uncertainty in restoration planning and allows practitioners to weigh the ecological benefits and budgetary constraints when considering locations for restoration. To effectively communicate restoration science to support practitioners in decision-making, we developed an R Shiny application online user interface available at: https://shiny.wdfw-fish.us/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfOccurence/ .

Washington↗
USGS2014

Influence of hyporheic exchange, substrate distribution, and other physically-linked hydrogeomorphic characteristics on abundance of freshwater mussels

Both endangered and non-endangered unionid mussels are heterogeneously distributed within the Allegheny River, Pennsylvania. Mussel populations vary from high to low density downstream of Kinzua Dam, and the direction, amount, and range of hyporheic exchange (seepage) at the sediment–water interface were suspected to influence their distribution and abundance. Nineteen hydrogeomorphic variables, including the quantification of seepage metrics, substrate size, river stage, river discharge, and shear stress, were measured at five reaches on the Allegheny River within 80 km downstream of Kinzua Dam. Analysis revealed significant (α = 0·05) non-linear correlations between mussel population density and directional mean seepage (positive relationship), river width (positive relationship), and median substrate size (negative relationship). Specifically, seepage findings showed that increases in upward seepage and decreases in the overall range of seepage related to increases in mussel population density. River width, directional mean seepage, and median substrate size were also found to co-vary with marginal significance (α = 0·1), making their individual influences on mussel population density uncertain. Absolute mean seepage, water depth, hydraulic head, temperature differences between the surface water and substrate, and other substrate metrics besides median grain size were not found to significantly correlate to mussel population density. Considering the physical processes often linking seepage to other explanatory variables, future research in seepage–mussel relationships should work to isolate the mechanistic influence of hyporheic exchange independently from its common covariation with substrate size and geomorphology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2018

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio‐economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user‐friendliness, and excellent user‐support. Forty‐one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user‐support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user‐friendly forms, increasing user‐support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Nonetheless, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2018

Spatial decision‐support tools to guide restoration and seed‐sourcing in the Desert Southwest

Altered disturbance regimes and shifting climates have increased the need for large‐scale restoration treatments across the western United States. Seed‐sourcing remains a considerable challenge for revegetation efforts, particularly on public lands where policy favors the use of native, locally sourced plant material to avoid maladaptation. An important area of emphasis for public agencies has been the development of spatial tools to guide selection of genetically appropriate seed. When genetic information is not available, current seed transfer guidelines stipulate use of climate‐based or provisional seed transfer zones, which serve as a proxy for local adaptation by representing climate gradients to which plants are commonly adapted. Despite this guidance, little emphasis has been placed on identifying best practices for deriving provisional seed zones or on incorporating predictions from future climate. We describe a flexible, multivariate procedure for deriving such zones that incorporates a broad range of climatic characteristics while accounting for covariation among climate variables. With this approach, we derive provisional seed zones for four regions in the Desert Southwest (the Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Colorado Plateau, and Southern Great Basin). To facilitate future‐resilient restoration designs, we project each zone into its relative position in the future climate based on near‐term, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Although provisional seed zones are useful in a variety of contexts, there are also situations in which site‐specific guidance is preferable. To meet this need, we implement Climate Distance Mapper, an interactive decision‐support tool designed to help practitioners match seed sources with restoration sites through an accessible online interface. The application allows users to rank the suitability of seed sources anywhere on the landscape based on multivariate climate distances. Users can perform calculations for either the current or future climates. Additionally, tools are available to guide sample effort in regional‐scale seed collections or to partition the landscape into climate clusters representing suitable planting sites for different seed sources. Our tools and analytic procedures represent a flexible and reproducible framework for advancing native plant development programs in the Desert Southwest and beyond.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2024

Hookworm prevalence in ocelots in Costa Rica is inconsistent with spillover from domestic dogs despite high overlap

Spatial overlap between wildlife and related domestic animals can lead to disease transmission, with substantial evidence for viral and bacterial spillover. Domestic and wild animals can also share potentially harmful helminth parasites, many of which have environmental transmission stages that do not require direct contact between hosts. We used camera traps, fecal sampling, and mathematical modeling to evaluate the potential for hookworm parasites to spillover from domestic dogs to wild cats in the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Traditional microscopy was found to be more sensitive than DNA-based diagnostics for parasites, though the methods were complementary. We found high hookworm ( Ancylostoma spp.) prevalence in domestic dogs (74.2%, 95% CI: 67.0%–80.7%, N = 155), and considerable spatial overlap with ocelots ( Leopardus pardalis ) and pumas ( Puma concolor ), particularly on trails and dirt roads. Pumas had hookworm prevalence of 36.4% (18.6%–57.2%, N = 22), and ocelots had 27.3% (7.6%–56.5%, N = 11); however, molecular identification of these parasites was inconclusive. We developed a macroparasite transmission model to infer the likelihood of spillover, compared with separate parasite cycles, or different parasite species in each host. According to the model, spillover of hookworm from dogs would lead to a prevalence of less than 10% in wild hosts. Low presumed compatibility between wild hosts and parasites adapted to domestic species limits the prevalence that could be reached in wild species, even under potentially higher overlap. The prevalence observed was more consistent with a model that assumes hookworms in wild cats in the Osa are a cat-specific parasite. The combination of parasitology, molecular diagnostics, and mathematical modeling used here could complement wildlife disease monitoring programs worldwide to shed light on understudied helminth–host dynamics at the domestic–wild animal interface.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2024

The effects of spatio-temporal variation in marine resources on the occupancy dynamics of a terrestrial avian predator

Identifying how species respond to system drivers such as weather, climate, habitat, and resource availability is critical in understanding population change. In coastal areas, the transfer of nutrients across the marine and terrestrial interface increases complexity. Nesting populations of bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) along the Pacific coast of North America, although terrestrial, are largely dependent on marine resources during the breeding season and therefore represent a good focal species for understanding linkages of nutrients between terrestrial and marine systems. Due to their location, coastal eagle populations are susceptible to a variety of climate-induced perturbations, from both land and sea. The northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) of 2014-2016 had wide-ranging impacts on the marine ecosystem and provided an opportunity to explore how marine conditions can impact terrestrial wildlife populations. We used a spatially-explicit multi-state occupancy modeling framework to analyze >30yrs of bald eagle nest occupancy data collected in four large national parks along a coastal-interior gradient in Alaska, USA. We assessed occupancy state in relation to weather conditions, salmon abundance, access to alternate prey resources, and the PMH event to help elucidate the factors affecting bald eagle occupancy dynamics over time. We found that occupancy probability was higher in areas where prey resources were concentrated (e.g., near seabird colonies, where bears facilitate access to salmon carcasses). We also found that the probability of reproductive success was higher during warmer, drier springs with higher-than-average salmon abundance. After the onset of the marine heatwave, success declined in the areas most dependent on non-salmon marine resources. These findings confirm the importance of spring weather conditions and access to salmon resources during the critical chick-rearing period, but also reveal that marine heatwaves may have important secondary effects through a reduction in the overall quantity or quality of prey available to bald eagles. Given ongoing warming at high latitudes and the expectation that marine heatwaves will become more common, our findings are useful for understanding ongoing and future changes in the transfer of nutrients from marine to terrestrial ecosystems and how such changes may impact terrestrial species such as bald eagles.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Aridity reduces lag times between aquatic and terrestrial dry-down among watersheds and across years in the northwest US

Landscapes encompass both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that experience the same climate but may respond to climate in divergent ways. For example, the time lag between seasonal dry-down of terrestrial soil moisture and decline in streamflow has important implications for species and ecosystem processes across the aquatic–terrestrial interface. How these lags between aquatic and terrestrial hydrology vary with climate and spatial location within watersheds remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine seasonal patterns of aquatic–terrestrial dry-down across seven watersheds in the northwestern USA, spanning a wide range of aridity. We compared daily streamflow data from USGS gages at watershed outlets with simulated daily soil moisture (1979–2020) from multiple locations within each watershed. In all watersheds, annual dry cycles progressed sequentially through the following features: evapotranspiration, precipitation, shallow soil moisture, deep soil moisture, and finally streamflow. Seasonal streamflow minima lagged behind soil moisture minima for shorter durations in more arid watersheds and drier years. Within watersheds, lag times varied spatially due to interactions between elevation and aridity, with short lags in low-elevation soils near streams in arid watersheds and longer lags in less arid watersheds. Collectively, these results indicate shorter lags between seasonal aquatic and terrestrial dry periods in drier watersheds and years, and show that these tighter linkages are spatially aggregated in drier watersheds. The co-occurrence of seasonally dry conditions in both aquatic and terrestrial systems under increasing aridification is likely to intensify stressors on ecosystems and services. Recognizing these patterns may be critical for predicting ecosystem vulnerabilities and informing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of seasonally dry conditions.

Montana, Oregon, Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985–2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties.

Ecology↗
USGS2025

Comparison of creek and bay influences on salt marsh sediment budget and deposition patterns

The resilience of salt marshes with low organic production depends on their effective capture and retention of mineral sediment from adjacent waters. Little prior work has directly compared mechanisms of sediment import from wave-influenced marsh boundaries against those of tidal creeks. We used simultaneous deployment of net-deposition tiles and oceanographic sensors to identify the timing and magnitude of sediment import/export to, and redistribution within, a marsh in south San Francisco Bay. As the marsh has both an eroding bay-exposed scarp and a prominent tidal creek, we investigated the mechanisms and magnitudes of sediment import from the marsh-bay versus the marsh-creek interface. The strong daily sea breezes of the summer season produced most of the wave-driven erosion of the marsh scarp and controlled suspended sediment concentrations; the winter season had weaker winds punctuated by a few storms. A large seasonal difference in suspended sediment concentrations influenced both flood and ebb sediment fluxes to the marsh and led to much higher rates of import in the summer. Both bay-side and creek-side processes were important to total marsh sediment budget. Bay-side sediment contributions were more variable in time due to the bay-influenced environment, and creek-side contributions were overall larger, reflecting the large proportion of the marsh fed by creek water. Sediment was redistributed throughout the system, with erosion near the bay-edge, accretion near the creek-edge and slow import to the marsh interior. The marsh was net importing sediment in the summer and exporting in the winter from different rates of these processes; on an annual scale, the marsh was net importing despite rapid lateral marsh loss. These findings emphasize that a positive sediment budget does not imply a stable marsh and that both creek- and edge-side dynamics are important for marsh sedimentation and geomorphic trajectories. Further, we expand understandings of non-storm and seasonal controls on marsh sedimentation.

California↗
USGS2026

Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We develop the ground-motion characterization (GMC) for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM-PRVI) for earthquakes in active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab regimes. Using ground-motion models (GMMs) from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 and NGA-Subduction projects, the GMC is parameterized by scaled-backbone models for median ground motions and by independent logic trees of aleatory variability. We introduce several novel GMC features into the U.S. NSHM: (1) use of regional ground-motion data for modeling median ground motions; (2) development of scaled-backbone models for median ground motions; and (3) development of independent logic trees of aleatory variability from variance components of GMMs and computed from multiple ground-motion datasets, and incorporating regional ground-motion data effects on variability. We compute probabilistic seismic hazard curves and maps to evaluate the contributions from the GMC components and for comparison with the 2003 GMC. Contributions of the GMC to epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard are evaluated through spatial variations in epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps, comparisons between mean hazard curves and fractiles, as well as investigations of the contributions of logic-tree branches to hazard maps and curves. Comparisons between seismic hazard from the 2025 and 2003 GMCs allow examination of the changes in hazard curves and mapped values with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The 2025 GMC exhibits modest changes in median predictions, relative to the 2003 GMC; overall, values of aleatory variability are higher, except at long periods ( ), resulting in changes to probabilistic ground motions at low probabilities of exceedance (<10% probability of exceedance in 50 years). Changes in hazard at 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years are also relatively modest (within 20%) at most sites, with the impacts from the 2025 GMC exhibiting minor reductions and increases at 0.2 and 1.0 s periods, respectively, relative to the 2003 GMC.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

Site response models based on geometric parameters for southern California sedimentary basins

Site response in sedimentary basins is influenced by complex three-dimensional (3D) features, including trapping of seismic waves, focusing of seismic energy and basin resonance. Current ground motion models (GMMs) incorporate basin effects using one-dimensional parameters like V S30 and shear wave velocity isosurface depths, which are limited in capturing lateral and 3D effects. To address these limitations, we develop seismic site response models based on novel parameters that represent multi-dimensional properties of the Los Angeles Basin (LAB) geometry and shear wave velocity. We define a basin shape for the LAB using depth to subsurface geologic interfaces associated with the oldest sedimentary deposits (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon, i.e., 1.5 km/s - z 1.5 ) and the depth to the crystalline basement ( z cb ) which are determined using geologic cross sections and community seismic velocity model profiles. We explore a suite of geometric descriptors computed for the LAB and southern California, from which three parameters with the greatest predictive potential are selected and evaluated using empirical ground motion residual analyses in combination with the Boore et al. GMM. The results demonstrate that the zonal heterogeneity index ( ), standard deviation of the absolute difference between z 1.5 and z cb ( ) and standard deviation of z cb ( ) each provide a reduction in site-to-site variability ( ϕ S2S ) of empirical GMMs. The reduction in ϕ S2S is period-dependent, with average decreases of 3%, 26% and 6% for , , and , respectively. Although these reductions are modest from an engineering application perspective, they are statistically significant, underscoring the inherent difficulty in fully characterising complex basin effects. Collectively, these findings indicate that the inclusion of basin-specific geometric parameters yields measurable, albeit incremental, improvements in site response prediction and establishes a framework for the progressive refinement of seismic hazard characterisation within sedimentary basins.

California↗
USGS2026

Ground-motion aleatory-variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

I develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability for crustal and subduction-zone (interface and intraslab) earthquakes for seismic hazards analyses in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) from existing suites of ground-motion models (GMMs) and from ground-motion datasets, including a regional PRVI dataset. The aleatory variability models are parameterized using a partially nonergodic partitioning of standard deviation that consists of independently developed between-event ( ), site-to-site ( ), and event-corrected single-station ( ) standard deviation components. The effects of nonlinear site response on aleatory variability are incorporated through additional terms that modify the standard deviation components. Because one goal of this work is to develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability that synthesize the aleatory variability models from GMMs, I make use of the functional forms of the input GMMs. The PRVI dataset contains a limited number of stations with high-quality site metadata and does not contain records from earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.1, so I choose not to develop the aleatory variability models from the regional dataset alone. Instead, the standard deviation components from regional ground-motion data are evaluated against the components derived from GMMs and from available global datasets, and regionalized standard deviation components are incorporated where there is evidence that regional effects exhibit substantial differences. The resulting logic trees for aleatory variability consist of models of and that are consistent with semiempirical GMMs for active crustal and subduction-zone regimes, and two alternative models of , including one model that exhibits site-to-site variability informed by PRVI data, with values that exceed global models. The aleatory variability models may be considered in future hazards assessments in PRVI to simplify the hazard calculations, to incorporate regional ground-motion variability effects, and to enable direct logic-tree weighs of aleatory variability.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2026

2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. However, this is the first NSHM in which we: (1) apply an inversion methodology to subduction interface fault sources in the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) model; (2) develop scaled backbone median ground-motion models and independent aleatory variability models that are applied in the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model; and (3) calculate epistemic uncertainty related to alternative scenarios in the ERF and GMC models for all grid points in the study region. Long-term time-independent mean hazard calculations were performed for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration at 21 spectral periods from 0.01- to 10.0-s, for eight National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site conditions ranging from V S30 = 150 to 1500 m/s, and for 2%, 5%, and 10% in 50-year probabilities of exceedance (return periods of 2475, 975, and 475 years, respectively). Epistemic uncertainty, in the form of selected percentiles, is also provided for a suite of test sites and all grid points in the study region for limited periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. Selected results, including comparisons with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, are shown and discussed for selected periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. When comparing the 2025 PRVI NSHM with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, hazard is generally higher at shorter periods and lower at longer periods, as a result of updates in both ERF and GMC models. The 2025 PRVI NSHM is applicable for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2014

A new method of snowmelt sampling for water stable isotopes

We modified a passive capillary sampler (PCS) to collect snowmelt water for isotopic analysis. Past applications of PCSs have been to sample soil water, but the novel aspect of this study was the placement of the PCSs at the ground-snowpack interface to collect snowmelt. We deployed arrays of PCSs at 11 sites in ten partner countries on five continents representing a range of climate and snow cover worldwide. The PCS reliably collected snowmelt at all sites and caused negligible evaporative fractionation effects in the samples. PCS is low-cost, easy to install, and collects a representative integrated snowmelt sample throughout the melt season or at the melt event scale. Unlike snow cores, the PCS collects the water that would actually infiltrate the soil; thus, its isotopic composition is appropriate to use for tracing snowmelt water through the hydrologic cycle. The purpose of this Briefing is to show the potential advantages of PCSs and recommend guidelines for constructing and installing them based on our preliminary results from two snowmelt seasons.

Hydrological Processes↗