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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS1997

Nitrogen fluxes in a high elevation Colorado Rocky Mountain basin

Measured, calculated and simulated values were combined to develop an annual nitrogen budget for Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS) in the Colorado Front Range. Nine-year average wet nitrogen deposition values were 1·6 ( s =0·36) kg NO 3 -N ha −1 , and 1·0 ( s =0·3) kg NH 4 -N ha −1 . Assuming dry nitrogen deposition to be half that of measured wet deposition, this high elevation watershed receives 3·9 kg N ha −1 . Although deposition values fluctuated with precipitation, measured stream nitrogen outputs were less variable. Of the total N input to the watershed (3·9 kg N ha −1 wet plus dry deposition), 49% of the total N input was immobilized. Stream losses were 2·0 kg N ha −1 (1125 kg measured dissolved inorganic N in 1992, 1–2 kg calculated dissolved organic N, plus an average of 203 kg algal N from the entire 660 ha watershed). Tundra and aquatic algae were the largest reservoirs for incoming N, at approximately 18% and 15% of the total 2574 kg N deposition, respectively. Rocky areas and forest stored the remaining 11% and 5%, respectively. Fully 80% of N losses from the watershed came from the 68% of LVWS that is alpine. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS1999

Component flow processes at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, analysed using episodic concentration/discharge relationship

Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event-event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event - event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2015

Soil greenhouse gas emissions and carbon budgeting in a short-hydroperiod floodplain wetland

Understanding the controls on floodplain carbon (C) cycling is important for assessing greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for C sequestration in river-floodplain ecosystems. We hypothesized that greater hydrologic connectivity would increase C inputs to floodplains that would not only stimulate soil C gas emissions but also sequester more C in soils. In an urban Piedmont river (151 km 2 watershed) with a floodplain that is dry most of the year, we quantified soil CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O net emissions along gradients of floodplain hydrologic connectivity, identified controls on soil aerobic and anaerobic respiration, and developed a floodplain soil C budget. Sites were chosen along a longitudinal river gradient and across lateral floodplain geomorphic units (levee, backswamp, and toe slope). CO 2 emissions decreased downstream in backswamps and toe slopes and were high on the levees. CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes were near zero; however, CH 4 emissions were highest in the backswamp. Annual CO 2 emissions correlated negatively with soil water-filled pore space and positively with variables related to drier, coarser soil. Conversely, annual CH 4 emissions had the opposite pattern of CO 2 . Spatial variation in aerobic and anaerobic respiration was thus controlled by oxygen availability but was not related to C inputs from sedimentation or vegetation. The annual mean soil CO 2 emission rate was 1091 g C m −2  yr −1 , the net sedimentation rate was 111 g C m −2  yr −1 , and the vegetation production rate was 240 g C m −2  yr −1 , with a soil C balance (loss) of −338 g C m −2  yr −1 . This floodplain is losing C likely due to long-term drying from watershed urbanization.

Virginia↗
USGS2015

Identifying multiple timescale rainfall controls on Mojave Desert ecohydrology using an integrated data and modeling approach for Larrea tridentata

The perennial shrub Larrea tridentata is widely successful in North American warm deserts but is also susceptible to climatic perturbations. Understanding its response to rainfall variability requires consideration of multiple timescales. We examine intra-annual to multi-year relationships using model simulations of soil moisture and vegetation growth over 50 years in the Mojave National Preserve in southeastern California (USA). Ecohydrological model parameters are conditioned on field and remote sensing data using an ensemble Kalman filter. Although no specific periodicities were detected in the rainfall record, simulated leaf-area-index exhibits multi-year dynamics that are driven by multi-year (∼3-years) rains, but with up to a 1-year delay in peak response. Within a multi-year period, Larrea tridentata is more sensitive to winter rains than summer. In the most active part of the root zone (above ∼80 cm), >1-year average soil moisture drives vegetation growth, but monthly average soil moisture is controlled by root uptake. Moisture inputs reach the lower part of the root zone (below ∼80 cm) infrequently, but once there they can persist over a year to help sustain plant growth. Parameter estimates highlight efficient plant physiological properties facilitating persistent growth and high soil hydraulic conductivity allowing deep soil moisture stores. We show that soil moisture as an ecological indicator is complicated by bidirectional interactions with vegetation that depend on timescale and depth. Under changing climate, Larrea tridentata will likely be relatively resilient to shorter-term moisture variability but will exhibit higher sensitivity to shifts in seasonal to multi-year moisture inputs.

California↗
USGS2016

Geochemistry of the Black Sea during the last 15 kyr: A protracted evolution of its hydrography and ecology

The Black Sea is a 2200 m deep anoxic, marine sea connected to the Mediterranean Sea via the Dardanelles Strait, Marmara Sea, and the 3 km wide, 35 m deep Bosphorus Strait. The biogeochemistry of sediment from the Anatolia slope has recorded changes to the hydrography leading up to and following the input of Mediterranean water at ~9.4 ka (10 3 years B.P.), when global sea level rose to the level of the Bosphorus sill and high-salinity water from the Mediterranean began to spill into the then brackish lake. The water initially mixed little with the lake water but cascaded to the bottom where it remained essentially isolated for ~1.6 kyr, the time required to fill the basin from the bottom up at its present input rate. The accumulation of Mo in the seafloor sediments, a proxy of bottom-water anoxia, increased sharply at ~8.6 ka, when bacterial respiration in the bottom water advanced to SO 4 2− reduction by the oxidation of organic detritus that settled out of the photic zone. Its accumulation remained elevated to ~5.6 ka, when it decreased 60%, only to again increase slightly at ~2.0 ka. The accumulation of C org , a proxy of primary productivity, increased threefold to fourfold at ~7.8 ka, when upward mixing of the high-salinity bottom water replaced the then thin veneer of the brackish photic zone in less than 50 years. From that time onward, the accumulation of C org , Mo, and additional trace metals has reflected the hydrography of the basin and Bosphorus Strait, controlled largely by climate.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2017

Methane fluxes from tropical coastal lagoons surrounded bymangroves, Yucatán, Mexico

Methane concentrations in the water column and emissions to the atmosphere were determined for three tropical coastal lagoons surrounded by mangrove forests on the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Surface water dissolved methane was sampled at different seasons over a period of 2 years in areas representing a wide range of salinities and anthropogenic impacts. The highest surface water methane concentrations (up to 8378 nM) were measured in a polluted canal associated with Terminos Lagoon. In Chelem Lagoon, methane concentrations were typically lower, except in the polluted harbor area (1796 nM). In the relatively pristine Celestún Lagoon, surface water methane concentrations ranged from 41 to 2551 nM. Methane concentrations were negatively correlated with salinity in Celestún, while in Chelem and Terminos high methane concentrations were associated with areas of known pollution inputs, irrespective of salinity. The diffusive methane flux from surface lagoon water to the atmosphere ranged from 0.0023 to 15 mmol CH 4 m −2 d −1 . Flux chamber measurements revealed that direct methane release as ebullition was up to 3 orders of magnitude greater than measured diffusive flux. Coastal mangrove lagoons may therefore be an important natural source of methane to the atmosphere despite their relatively high salinity. Pollution inputs are likely to substantially enhance this flux. Additional statistically rigorous data collected globally are needed to better consider methane fluxes from mangrove-surrounded coastal areas in response to sea level changes and anthropogenic pollution in order to refine projections of future atmospheric methane budgets.

Yucatam↗
USGS2018

Estimating wetland connectivity to streams in the Prairie Pothole Region: An isotopic and remote sensing approach

Understanding hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and perennial streams is critical to understanding the reliance of stream flow on inputs from wetlands. We used the isotopic evaporation signal in water and remote sensing to examine wetland‐stream hydrologic connectivity within the Pipestem Creek watershed, North Dakota, a watershed dominated by prairie‐pothole wetlands. Pipestem Creek exhibited an evaporated‐water signal that had approximately half the isotopic‐enrichment signal found in most evaporatively enriched prairie‐pothole wetlands. Groundwater adjacent to Pipestem Creek had isotopic values that indicated recharge from winter precipitation and had no significant evaporative enrichment, indicating that enriched surface water did not contribute significantly to groundwater discharging into Pipestem Creek. The estimated surface water area necessary to generate the evaporation signal within Pipestem Creek was highly dynamic, varied primarily with the amount of discharge, and was typically greater than the immediate Pipestem Creek surface water area, indicating that surficial flow from wetlands contributed to stream flow throughout the summer. We propose a dynamic range of spilling thresholds for prairie‐pothole wetlands across the watershed allowing for wetland inputs even during low‐flow periods. Combining Landsat estimates with the isotopic approach allowed determination of potential (Landsat) and actual (isotope) contributing areas in wetland‐dominated systems. This combined approach can give insights into the changes in location and magnitude of surface water and groundwater pathways over time. This approach can be used in other areas where evaporation from wetlands results in a sufficient evaporative isotopic signal.

North Dakota↗
USGS2012

Thermal infrared remote sensing of water temperature in riverine landscapes

Water temperature in riverine landscapes is an important regional indicator of water quality that is influenced by both ground- and surface-water inputs, and indirectly by land use in the surrounding watershed (Brown and Krygier, 1970; Beschta et al., 1987; Chen et al., 1998; Poole and Berman, 2001). Coldwater fishes such as salmon and trout are sensitive to elevated water temperature; therefore, water temperature must meet management guidelines and quality standards, which aim to create a healthy environment for endangered populations (McCullough et al., 2009). For example, in the USA, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established water quality standards to identify specific temperature criteria to protect coldwater fishes (Environmental Protection Agency, 2003). Trout and salmon can survive in cool-water refugia even when temperatures at other measurement locations are at or above the recommended maximums (Ebersole et al., 2001; Baird and Krueger, 2003; High et al., 2006). Spatially extensive measurements of water temperature are necessary to locate these refugia, to identify the location of ground- and surface-water inputs to the river channel, and to identify thermal pollution sources. Regional assessment of water temperature in streams and rivers has been limited by sparse sampling in both space and time. Water temperature has typically been measured using a network of widely distributed instream gages, which record the temporal change of the bulk, or kinetic, temperature of the water (Tk) at specific locations. For example, the State of Washington (USA) recorded water quality conditions at 76 stations within the Puget Lowlands eco region, which contains 12,721 km of streams and rivers (Washington Department of Ecology, 1998). Such gages are sparsely distributed, are typically located only in larger streams and rivers, and give limited information about the spatial distribution of water temperature (Cherkauer et al., 2005).

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Linking demographic and food-web models to understand management trade-offs

Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multi-state models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years; and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on non-focal-species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗
USGS2022

Can grazing by elk and bison stimulate herbaceous plant productivity in semiarid ecosystems?

Plant communities in rangeland ecosystems vary widely in the degree to which they can compensate for losses to herbivores. Ecosystem-level factors have been proposed to affect this compensatory capacity, including timing and intensity of grazing, and availability of soil moisture and nutrients. Arid ecosystems are particularly challenging to predict because of their high degree of temporal variability in moisture inputs. We used a replicated herbivore exclusion experiment to evaluate herbaceous plant responses to grazing by large ungulates to test current theory and identify constraints on plant compensation in a dryland ecosystem. We measured nitrogen (N) yield and herbaceous production in three plant communities: meadows, willow-associated herbaceous communities, and riparian communities. We implemented grazing exclusion treatments from 2005 to 2008 in areas with elk and bison and areas with only elk. Grazing by large ungulates increased herbaceous production and N yield in herbaceous riparian communities. In willow communities, herbaceous plants displayed equal compensation in response to grazing in total aboveground production and N yield. Our results support the idea that plant compensation in this semiarid system is contingent on soil moisture availability, wherein the most productive sites (that received substantial moisture inputs from subsurface flow) exhibited overcompensation. Although the herbaceous riparian communities we studied are isolated patches of productive grassland in an otherwise shrub-dominated and minimally productive semiarid landscape, grazing by a combination of bison and elk removed only 44%–53% of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) during the growing season, and 25%–38% of production over winter. Consumption by ungulates was a positive linear function of herbaceous production, similar to reported patterns from other temperate and tropical grazing ecosystems. The slope of this relationship was affected by the analytical method used to calculate ANPP and consumption rates, but, regardless of the method, was lower or similar to reported slopes for other intensively grazed systems (Yellowstone, Serengeti, Laikipia) that have sustained high ungulate densities for decades to centuries. Given that the vegetation communities exhibited equal or overcompensation in terms of total herbaceous ANPP in both years, elk and bison population levels during our study period did not appear to occur at densities leading to degradation of herbaceous communities.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Implications of next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations for site coefficients used in earthquake resistant design

Proposals are developed to update Tables 11.4-1 and 11.4-2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures published as American Society of Civil Engineers Structural Engineering Institute standard 7-10 (ASCE/SEI 7–10). The updates are mean next generation attenuation (NGA) site coefficients inferred directly from the four NGA ground motion prediction equations used to derive the maximum considered earthquake response maps adopted in ASCE/SEI 7–10. Proposals include the recommendation to use straight-line interpolation to infer site coefficients at intermediate values of (average shear velocity to 30-m depth). The NGA coefficients are shown to agree well with adopted site coefficients at low levels of input motion (0.1 g) and those observed from the Loma Prieta earthquake. For higher levels of input motion, the majority of the adopted values are within the 95% epistemic-uncertainty limits implied by the NGA estimates with the exceptions being the mid-period site coefficient, F v , for site class D and the short-period coefficient, F a , for site class C, both of which are slightly less than the corresponding 95% limit. The NGA data base shows that the median value of 913 m/s for site class B is more typical than 760 m/s as a value to characterize firm to hard rock sites as the uniform ground condition for future maximum considered earthquake response ground motion estimates. Future updates of NGA ground motion prediction equations can be incorporated easily into future adjustments of adopted site coefficients using procedures presented herein. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics↗
USGS2007

Modeling the spatial distribution of landslide-prone colluvium and shallow groundwater on hillslopes of Seattle, WA

Landslides in partially saturated colluvium on Seattle, WA, hillslopes have resulted in property damage and human casualties. We developed statistical models of colluvium and shallow-groundwater distributions to aid landslide hazard assessments. The models were developed using a geographic information system, digital geologic maps, digital topography, subsurface exploration results, the groundwater flow modeling software VS2DI and regression analyses. Input to the colluvium model includes slope, distance to a hillslope-crest escarpment, and escarpment slope and height. We developed different statistical relations for thickness of colluvium on four landforms. Groundwater model input includes colluvium basal slope and distance from the Fraser aquifer. This distance was used to estimate hydraulic conductivity based on the assumption that addition of finer-grained material from down-section would result in lower conductivity. Colluvial groundwater is perched so we estimated its saturated thickness. We used VS2DI to establish relations between saturated thickness and the hydraulic conductivity and basal slope of the colluvium. We developed different statistical relations for three groundwater flow regimes. All model results were validated using observational data that were excluded from calibration. Eighty percent of colluvium thickness predictions were within 25% of observed values and 88% of saturated thickness predictions were within 20% of observed values. The models are based on conditions common to many areas, so our method can provide accurate results for similar regions; relations in our statistical models require calibration for new regions. Our results suggest that Seattle landslides occur in native deposits and colluvium, ultimately in response to surface-water erosion of hillstope toes. Regional groundwater conditions do not appear to strongly affect the general distribution of Seattle landslides; historical landslides were equally dispersed within and outside of the area potentially affected by regional groundwater conditions.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2012

Assessing ongoing sources of dissolved-phase polychlorinated biphenyls in a contaminated stream

Few studies assess the potential of ongoing sources of “fresh” polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to aquatic systems when direct discharge to the environment has been eliminated. In the present study, the authors used single-layered, low-density polyethylene samplers (PEs) to measure total PCB concentrations, congener profiles, and enantiomeric fractions (EFs) in a contaminated stream and to provide multiple lines of evidence for assessing ongoing inputs of PCB. Concentrations were well above background levels that have been monitored for years. Concentrations significantly increased with distance, the farthest downstream PE concentrations being almost five times greater than those at 79 m downstream of a historical point source. The PCBs in the PEs at 79 m downstream of the contamination source were dominated by low K OW congeners, similar to those in the mixture of Aroclors 1016 and 1254 (4:1 v/v) historically released from the former capacitor manufacturer. The only two chiral congeners detected in the PEs downstream were PCBs 91 and 95. The EF values were nonracemic for PCB 91, while the values were either racemic or near racemic for PCB 95. Increased PCB concentrations with distance and a congener composition of predominantly low-weight congeners in the PEs at 79 m downstream of the plant site suggested an ongoing PCB source from the plant site. Chiral signatures suggested aerobic biotransformation of dissolved PCBs but did not shed any light on possible ongoing PCB inputs.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2017

Are exposure predictions, used for the prioritization of pharmaceuticals in the environment, fit for purpose?

Prioritization methodologies are often used for identifying those pharmaceuticals that pose the greatest risk to the natural environment and to focus laboratory testing or environmental monitoring toward pharmaceuticals of greatest concern. Risk-based prioritization approaches, employing models to derive exposure concentrations, are commonly used, but the reliability of these models is unclear. The present study evaluated the accuracy of exposure models commonly used for pharmaceutical prioritization. Targeted monitoring was conducted for 95 pharmaceuticals in the Rivers Foss and Ouse in the City of York (UK). Predicted environmental concentration (PEC) ranges were estimated based on localized prescription, hydrological data, reported metabolism, and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) removal rates, and were compared with measured environmental concentrations (MECs). For the River Foss, PECs, obtained using highest metabolism and lowest WWTP removal, were similar to MECs. In contrast, this trend was not observed for the River Ouse, possibly because of pharmaceutical inputs unaccounted for by our modeling. Pharmaceuticals were ranked by risk based on either MECs or PECs. With 2 exceptions (dextromethorphan and diphenhydramine), risk ranking based on both MECs and PECs produced similar results in the River Foss. Overall, these findings indicate that PECs may well be appropriate for prioritization of pharmaceuticals in the environment when robust and local data on the system of interest are available and reflective of most source inputs.

City of York↗
USGS2021

Modeling the bioavailability of nickel and zinc to Ceriodaphnia dubia and Neocloeon triangulifer in toxicity tests with Natural Waters

We studied biotic ligand model (BLM) predictions of toxicity of nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) in natural waters from Illinois and Minnesota USA which had combinations of pH, hardness, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) more extreme than 99.7% of waters in a nationwide database. We conducted 7-d chronic tests with Ceriodaphnia dubia, and 96-hr acute test and 14-d chronic tests with Neocloeon triangulifer, and estimated LC50s and EC20s for both species. Toxicity of Ni and Zn to both species differed among test waters by factors from 8 (Zn tests with C. dubia ) to 35 (Zn tests with N. triangulifer ). For both species and metals, tests with Minnesota waters (low pH and hardness, high DOC) showed lower toxicity than Illinois waters (high pH, high hardness, low DOC). Recalibration of the Ni BLM to be more responsive to pH-related changes improved predictions of Ni toxicity, especially for C. dubia . We compared several input data scenarios for the Zn BLM, which generally had minor effects on Model Performance Scores (MPS). A scenario that included inputs of modeled dissolved inorganic carbon and measured Al and Fe(III) produced highest MPS values for tests with both C. dubia and N. triangulifer . Overall, the BLM framework successfully modeled variation in toxicity for both Zn and Ni across wide ranges of water chemistry in tests with both standard and novel test organisms.

Illinois, Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Deep learning approaches for improving prediction of daily stream temperature in data-scarce, unmonitored, and dammed basins

Basin-centric long short-term memory (LSTM) network models have recently been shown to be an exceptionally powerful tool for stream temperature (T s ) temporal prediction (training in one period and predicting in another period at the same sites). However, spatial extrapolation is a well-known challenge to modelling T s and it is uncertain how an LSTM-based daily T s model will perform in unmonitored or dammed basins. Here we compiled a new benchmark dataset consisting of >400 basins across the contiguous United States in different data availability groups (DAG, meaning the daily sampling frequency) with and without major dams, and studied how to assemble suitable training datasets for predictions in basins with or without temperature monitoring. For prediction in unmonitored basins (PUB), LSTM produced a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.129°C and an R 2 of 0.983. While these metrics declined from LSTM's temporal prediction performance, they far surpassed traditional models' PUB values, and were competitive with traditional models' temporal prediction on calibrated sites. Even for unmonitored basins with major reservoirs, we obtained a median RMSE of 1.202°C and an R 2 of 0.984. For temporal prediction, the most suitable training set was the matching DAG that the basin could be grouped into (for example, the 60% DAG was most suitable for a basin with 61% data availability). However, for PUB, a training dataset including all basins with data was consistently preferred. An input-selection ensemble moderately mitigated attribute overfitting. Our results indicate there are influential latent processes not sufficiently described by the inputs (e.g., geology, wetland covers), but temporal fluctuations can still be predicted well, and LSTM appears to be a highly accurate T s modelling tool even for spatial extrapolation.

Hydrological Processes↗