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Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, February 11-14, 2008: Painting the Big Picture

The Second USGS Modeling Conference was held February 11-14, 2008, in Orange Beach, Ala. Participants at the conference came from all U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regions and represented all four science discipline - Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water. Representatives from other Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies and partners from the academic community also participated. The conference, which was focused on 'painting the big picture', emphasized the following themes: Integrated Landscape Monitoring, Global Climate Change, Ecosystem Modeling, and Hazards and Risks. The conference centered on providing a forum for modelers to meet, exchange information on current approaches, identify specific opportunities to share existing models and develop more linked and integrated models to address complex science questions, and increase collaboration across disciplines and with other organizations. Abstracts for the 31 oral presentations and more than 60 posters presented at the conference are included here. The conference also featured a field trip to review scientific modeling issues along the Gulf of Mexico. The field trip included visits to Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, the 5 Rivers Delta Resource Center, and Bon Secour National Wildlife Refuge. On behalf of all the participants of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, the conference organizing committee expresses our sincere appreciation for the support of field trip oganizers and leaders, including the managers from the various Reserves and Refuges. The organizing committee for the conference included Jenifer Bracewell, Sally Brady, Jacoby Carter, Thomas Casadevall, Linda Gundersen, Tom Gunther, Heather Henkel, Lauren Hay, Pat Jellison, K. Bruce Jones, Kenneth Odom, and Mark Wildhaber.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Taxonomic harmonization may reveal a stronger association between diatom assemblages and total phosphorus in large datasets

Diatom data have been collected in large-scale biological assessments in the United States, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA). However, the effectiveness of diatoms as indicators may suffer if inconsistent taxon identifications across different analysts obscure the relationships between assemblage composition and environmental variables. To reduce these inconsistencies, we harmonized the 2008–2009 NRSA data from nine analysts by updating names to current synonyms and by statistically identifying taxa with high analyst signal (taxa with more variation in relative abundance explained by the analyst factor, relative to environmental variables). We then screened a subset of samples with QA/QC data and combined taxa with mismatching identifications by the primary and secondary analysts. When these combined “slash groups” did not reduce analyst signal, we elevated taxa to the genus level or omitted taxa in difficult species complexes. We examined the variation explained by analyst in the original and revised datasets. Further, we examined how revising the datasets to reduce analyst signal can reduce inconsistency, thereby uncovering the variation in assemblage composition explained by total phosphorus (TP), an environmental variable of high priority for water managers. To produce a revised dataset with the greatest taxonomic consistency, we ultimately made 124 slash groups, omitted 7 taxa in the small naviculoid (e.g., Sellaphora atomoides ) species complex, and elevated Nitzschia , Diploneis , and Tryblionella taxa to the genus level. Relative to the original dataset, the revised dataset had more overlap among samples grouped by analyst in ordination space, less variation explained by the analyst factor, and more than double the variation in assemblage composition explained by TP. Elevating all taxa to the genus level did not eliminate analyst signal completely, and analyst remained the most important predictor for the genera Sellaphora , Mayamaea , and Psammodictyon , indicating that these taxa present the greatest obstacle to consistent identification in this dataset. Although our process did not completely remove analyst signal, this work provides a method to minimize analyst signal and improve detection of diatom association with TP in large datasets involving multiple analysts. Examination of variation in assemblage data explained by analyst and taxonomic harmonization may be necessary steps for improving data quality and the utility of diatoms as indicators of environmental variables.

Ecological Indicators↗

Central Colorado Assessment Project - Application of integrated geologic, geochemical, biologic, and mineral resource studies

Central Colorado is one of the fastest-growing regions in the Western United States. Population along the Front Range increased more than 30 percent between 1990 and 2000 (http://www.demographia.com/db-metro3newworld.htm) with some counties within the study area, such as Park County, experiencing greater than 100-percent growth (http://www.censusscope.org/us/s8/rank_popl_growth.html). This growth has caused tremendous demand for natural resources and has created challenging land-management issues related to the interface between wilderness and urban expansion. Management of this wilderness/urban interface will benefit from current digital geoscience information collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Central Colorado Assessment Project that began in 2003. Approximately 20,800 square miles (53,800 km2) of land divided almost equally between the public and private sectors were part of the assessment. The study area includes much of the Colorado Mineral Belt, a northeast-trending zone that contains 30 economically significant metal deposits. Historically, the area provided much of Colorado's metal production. The only active gold and molybdenum mines in Colorado lie within the study area. Recently, metal and uranium exploration activity has increased sharply in response to record prices for metals and uranium. This further underscores the need for up-to-date geoscience information presented in compatible GIS databases to facilitate rapid land-management decisions. Cooperative studies by USDA Forest Service, National Park Service supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program (MRP), and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Programs (NCGMP) contributed to the mineral-resource assessment and included regional geologic mapping at the scale 1:100,000, collection and geochemical studies of stream sediments, surface water, and bedrock samples, macroinvertebrate and biofilm studies in the riparian environment, remote-sensing studies, and geochronology. Geoscience information available as GIS layers has improved understanding of the distribution of metallic, industrial, and aggregate resources, location of areas that have potential for their discovery or development, helped to understand the relation of tectonics, magmatism, and paleohydrology to the genesis of the metal deposits in the region, and provided insight on the geochemical and environmental effects that historical mining and natural, mineralized rock exposures have on surface water, ground water, and aquatic life.

Fact Sheet↗

Finding the sweet spot: Shifting climate optima for maple syrup production in North America

Climate change is affecting the benefits society derives from forests. One such forest ecosystem service is maple syrup, which is primarily derived from Acer saccharum (sugar maple), currently an abundant and widespread tree species in eastern North America. Two climate sensitive components of sap affect syrup production: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap derives from carbohydrate stores influenced by prior year growing season conditions. Sap flow is tied to freeze/thaw cycles during early spring. Predicting climate effects on syrup production thus requires integrating observations across scales and biological processes. We observed sap at 6 sugar maple stands spanning sugar maple’s latitudinal range over 2¬–6 years to predict the role of climate variation on sugar content and sap flow. We found that the timing of sap collection advanced by 4.3 days for every 1 °C increase in March mean temperature, sap volume peaked at a January-May mean temperature of 1 °C, and sap sugar content declined by 0.1 °Brix for every 1 °C increase in previous May-October mean temperature. Using these empirical relationships, we projected that the sap collection season midpoint will be 1 month earlier and sap sugar content will decline by 0.7 °Brix across sugar maple’s range by the year 2100 in an RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The region of maximum sap flow is expected to shift northward by 400km, from near the 43rd parallel to the 48th parallel by 2100. Our findings suggest climate change will have profound effects on syrup yield across most of sugar maple’s range; drastic shifts in the timing of the tapping season accompanied by flat to moderate increases in syrup yield per tap in Canada contrast with declines in syrup yield and higher frequencies of poor syrup production years across most of the U.S. range.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Breeding season ecology: Chapter 6 in Status, ecology and conservation of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (RMRS-GTR-60)

The willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ) breeds across much of the conterminous United States and in portions of extreme southern Canada. As might be expected in such a wide-ranging species, willow fly- catchers in different portions of the range exhibit differences in appearance, song, and ecological characteristics. The intent of this chapter is to provide information on the breeding-season ecology of the southwestern subspecies, E.t. extimus . However, most ecological studies to date have dealt with other willow flycatcher subspecies. Relatively few studies have been published on E.t. extimus , and much of what is currently known is presented in unpublished literature (e.g., agency and consulting firm reports); these sources are relied upon heavily in this chapter. This chapter does not address habitat characteristics in depth, other than for nest sites (refer to A Survey of Current Breeding Habitats for additional details). Although southwestern willow flycatchers are frequent victims of nest parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ), this chapter will not address the topic of parasitism and its effect on breeding ecology (refer to The Ecology of Brown-headed Cowbirds and their Effects on Southwestern Willow Flycatchers for details). Readers interested in more details of willow flycatcher biology and ecology are encouraged to read McCabe’s (1991) treatise, which is based on over a decade of willow flycatchers research in Wisconsin and includes comparisons with other populations and subspecies.

General Technical Report↗

Status and management of the PaliIa, an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper, 1987-1996

A single, relictual population of Palila Loxioides bailleui, a Hawaiian honeycreeper, survives on the slopes of Mauna Kea volcano on the island of Hawai'i, where it feeds principally on flowers and green seeds of the mamane tree Sophora chrysophylla. The Palila was listed as an endangered species by state and federal governments because of continuing damage to its habitat by browsing Feral and Mouflon Sheep Ovis aries and O. musimon and Goats Capra hircus and because of the bird's restricted range and low numbers. Ecology of the Palila was studied from 1987 to 1996. Annual population estimates fluctuated between 1 600 and 5 700 and averaged 3 400 birds. Estimates varied with availability of mamane seeds, which are less abundant in drought years. In drought years, most birds did not attempt to breed, and survival rates were lower because of a shortage of food. Availability of mamane seeds also showed large seasonal variability. While some nests were preyed upon by Owls Asio flammeus, Cats Felis catus and Rats Rattus rattus, losses were high at the end of the season from unexplained death of eggs and chicks. Genetic studies did not implicate inbreeding depression. Neither avian malaria nor avian pox appeared at this site, where the mosquito vector was absent. However, weather and food shortage worsened towards the end of the nesting season. Availability of food and habitat remain the principal factors limiting increase in the Palila population. Recovery efforts now focus on reducing numbers of feral ungulates, fire management, removing mammalian predators, and developing techniques for captive propagation and introduction to currently unoccupied sites within the bird's former range. Reforestation adjacent to the Mauna Kea Forest Reserve would allow the Palila population to expand and grow.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗

Western pond turtle: Biology, sampling techniques, inventory and monitoring, conservation, and management: Northwest Fauna No. 7

One of only two native, freshwater turtle species in the western United States, western pond turtles are declining in portions of their original range. Declines are mostly due to habitat loss, introduction of non-native species, pollution, and lack of connectivity among populations. USGS zoologist R. Bruce Bury and colleagues from the U.S. Forest Service, California State University, and other agencies compiled and edited a new review and field manual of this charismatic species. Objectives were to determine its current distribution and abundance, summarize and evaluate population features, review techniques to detect population and habitat changes, and improve monitoring for long-term trends. Methods described in the manual should improve consistency, efficiency, and accuracy of survey data, resulting in improved management and conservation efforts.

Book↗

On inter-tidal transport equation

The transports of solutes, sediments, nutrients, and other tracers are fundamental to the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes in estuaries. The characteristic time scales for most estuarine biological and chemical processes are on the order of several tidal cycles or longer. To address the long-term transport mechanism meaningfully, the formulation of an inter-tidal conservation equation is the main subject of this paper. The commonly used inter-tidal conservation equation takes the form of a convection-dispersion equation in which the convection is represented by the Eulerian residual current, and the dispersion terms are due to the introduction of a Fickian hypothesis, unfortunately, the physical significance of this equation is not clear, and the introduction of a Fickian hypothesis is at best an ad hoc approximation. Some recent research results on the Lagrangian residual current suggest that the long-term transport problem is more closely related to the Lagrangian residual current than to the Eulerian residual current. With the aid of additional insight of residual current, the inter-tidal transport equation has been reformulated in this paper using a small perturbation method for a weakly nonlinear tidal system. When tidal flows can be represented by an M 2 system, the new intertidal transport equation also takes the form of a convective-dispersion equation without the introduction of a Fickian hypothesis. The convective velocity turns out to be the first order Lagrangian residual current (the sum of the Eulerian residual current and the Stokes’ drift), and the correlation terms take the form of convection with the Stokes’ drift as the convective velocity. The remaining dispersion terms are perturbations of lower order solution to higher order solutions due to shear effect and turbulent mixing.

Book chapter↗

Character, distribution, and ecological significance of storm wave-induced scour in Rhode Island Sound, USA

Multibeam bathymetry, collected during NOAA hydrographic surveys in 2008 and 2009, is coupled with USGS data from sampling and photographic stations to map the seabed morphology and composition of Rhode Island Sound along the US Atlantic coast, and to provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitats. Patchworks of scour depressions cover large areas on seaward-facing slopes and bathymetric highs in the sound. These depressions average 0.5-0.8 m deep and occur in water depths reaching as much as 42 m. They have relatively steep well-defined sides and coarser-grained floors, and vary strongly in shape, size, and configuration. Some individual scour depressions have apparently expanded to combine with adjacent depressions, forming larger eroded areas that commonly contain outliers of the original seafloor sediments. Where cobbles and scattered boulders are present on the depression floors, the muddy Holocene sands have been completely removed and the winnowed relict Pleistocene deposits exposed. Low tidal-current velocities and the lack of obstacle marks suggest that bidirectional tidal currents alone are not capable of forming these features. These depressions are formed and maintained under high-energy shelf conditions owing to repetitive cyclic loading imposed by high-amplitude, long-period, storm-driven waves that reduce the effective shear strength of the sediment, cause resuspension, and expose the suspended sediments to erosion by wind-driven and tidal currents. Because epifauna dominate on gravel floors of the depressions and infauna are prevalent in the finer-grained Holocene deposits, it is concluded that the resultant close juxtaposition of silty sand-, sand-, and gravel-dependent communities promotes regional faunal complexity. These findings expand on earlier interpretations, documenting how storm wave-induced scour produces sorted bedforms that control much of the benthic geologic and biologic diversity in Rhode Island Sound.

Rhode Island↗

Interpreting the spatio-temporal patterns of sea turtle strandings: Going with the flow

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of specific mortality sources is crucial for management of species that are vulnerable to human interactions. Beachcast carcasses represent an unknown fraction of at-sea mortalities. While a variety of physical (e.g., water temperature) and biological (e.g., decomposition) factors as well as the distribution of animals and their mortality sources likely affect the probability of carcass stranding, physical oceanography plays a major role in where and when carcasses strand. Here, we evaluate the influence of nearshore physical oceanographic and wind regimes on sea turtle strandings to decipher seasonal trends and make qualitative predictions about stranding patterns along oceanfront beaches. We use results from oceanic drift-bottle experiments to check our predictions and provide an upper limit on stranding proportions. We compare predicted current regimes from a 3D physical oceanographic model to spatial and temporal locations of both sea turtle carcass strandings and drift bottle landfalls. Drift bottle return rates suggest an upper limit for the proportion of sea turtle carcasses that strand (about 20%). In the South Atlantic Bight, seasonal development of along-shelf flow coincides with increased numbers of strandings of both turtles and drift bottles in late spring and early summer. The model also predicts net offshore flow of surface waters during winter - the season with the fewest relative strandings. The drift bottle data provide a reasonable upper bound on how likely carcasses are to reach land from points offshore and bound the general timeframe for stranding post-mortem (< two weeks). Our findings suggest that marine turtle strandings follow a seasonal regime predictable from physical oceanography and mimicked by drift bottle experiments. Managers can use these findings to reevaluate incidental strandings limits and fishery takes for both nearshore and offshore mortality sources. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

Long term atmospheric deposition as the source of nitrate and other salts in the Atacama Desert, Chile: New evidence from mass-independent oxygen isotopic compositions

Isotopic analysis of nitrate and sulfate minerals from the nitrate ore fields of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile has shown anomalous 17 O enrichments in both minerals. Δ 17 O values of 14–21 ‰ in nitrate and 0.4 to 4 ‰ in sulfate are the most positive found in terrestrial minerals to date. Modeling of atmospheric processes indicates that the Δ 17 O signatures are the result of photochemical reactions in the troposphere and stratosphere. We conclude that the bulk of the nitrate, sulfate and other soluble salts in some parts of the Atacama Desert must be the result of atmospheric deposition of particles produced by gas to particle conversion, with minor but varying amounts from sea spray and local terrestrial sources. Flux calculations indicate that the major salt deposits could have accumulated from atmospheric deposition in a period of 200,000 to 2.0 M years during hyper-arid conditions similar to those currently found in the Atacama Desert. Correlations between Δ 17 O and δ 18 O in nitrate salts from the Atacama Desert and Mojave Desert, California, indicate varying fractions of microbial and photochemical end-member sources. The photochemical nitrate isotope signature is well preserved in the driest surficial environments that are almost lifeless, whereas the microbial nitrate isotope signature becomes dominant rapidly with increasing moisture, biologic activity, and nitrogen cycling. These isotopic signatures have important implications for paleoclimate, astrobiology, and N cycling studies.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

The occurrence of the colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. on Georges Bank gravel habitat: ecological observations and potential effects on groundfish and scallop fisheries

The colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. is present on the Georges Bank fishing grounds in a gravel habitat where the benthic invertebrate fauna has been monitored annually since 1994. The species was not noted before 2002 when large colonies were first observed; and by 2003 and 2004 it covered large areas of the seabed at some locations. The latest survey in 2005 documented the tunicate's presence in two gravel areas that total more than 67 nm 2 (230 km 2 ). The affected area is located on the Northern Edge of the bank in United States waters near the U.S./Canada boundary ( Fig. 1). This is the first documented offshore occurrence of a species that has colonized eastern U.S. coastal waters from New York to Maine during the past 15–20 years ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2006). Video imagery shows colonies coalescing to form large mats that cover more than 50% of the seabed along some video/photo transects. The affected area is an immobile pebble and cobble pavement that lies at water depths of 40 to 65 m where strong semidiurnal tidal currents reach speeds of 1 to 2 kt (50–100 cm/s). The water column is mixed year round, ensuring a constant supply of nutrients to the seabed. Annual temperatures range from 4 to 15 °C ( Mountain and Holzwarth, 1989). The gravel areas are bounded by sand ridges whose mobile surfaces are moved daily by the strong tidal currents. Studies commenced here in 1994 to characterize the gravel habitat and to document the effects of fishing disturbance on it ( Collie et al., 2005).

Massachusetts↗

Historical forest patterns of Oregon's central Coast Range

To describe the composition and pattern of unmanaged forestland in Oregon's central Coast Range, we analyzed forest conditions from a random sample of 18 prelogging (1949 and earlier) landscapes. We also compared the amount and variability of old forest (conifer-dominated stands > 53 cm dbh) in the prelogging landscapes with that in the current landscapes. Sixty-three percent of the prelogging landscape comprised old forest, approximately 21% of which also had a significant (> 20% cover) hardwood component. The proportions of forest types across the 18 prelogging landscapes varied greatly for both early seral stages (cv = 81194) and hardwoods (cv = 127) and moderately for old forest (cv = 39). With increasing distance from streams, the amount of hardwoods and nonforest decreased, whereas the amount of seedling/sapling/pole and young conifers increased. The amount of old forest was significantly greater (p < 0.002) in prelogging forests than in current landscapes. Old-forest patterns also differed significantly (p < 0.015) between prelogging and current landscapes; patch density, coefficient of variation of patch size, edge density, and fragmentation were greater in current landscapes and mean patch size, largest patch size, and core habitat were greater in prelogging forests. Generally, old-forest landscape pattern variables showed a greater range in prelogging landscapes than in current landscapes. Management strategies designed to increase the amount of old forest and the range in landscape patterns would result in a landscape more closely resembling that found prior to intensive logging. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗

Ocean carbon and biogeochemistry scoping workshop on terrestrial and coastal carbon fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, St. Petersburg, FL, May 6-8, 2008

Despite their relatively small surface area, ocean margins may have a significant impact on global biogeochemical cycles and, potentially, the global air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide. Margins are characterized by intense geochemical and biological processing of carbon and other elements and exchange large amounts of matter and energy with the open ocean. The area-specific rates of productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and organic/inorganic matter sequestration are high in coastal margins, with as much as half of the global integrated new production occurring over the continental shelves and slopes (Walsh, 1991; Doney and Hood, 2002; Jahnke, in press). However, the current lack of knowledge and understanding of biogeochemical processes occurring at the ocean margins has left them largely ignored in most of the previous global assessments of the oceanic carbon cycle (Doney and Hood, 2002). A major source of North American and global uncertainty is the Gulf of Mexico, a large semi-enclosed subtropical basin bordered by the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. Like many of the marginal oceans worldwide, the Gulf of Mexico remains largely unsampled and poorly characterized in terms of its air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide and other carbon fluxes. In May 2008, the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Scoping Workshop on Terrestrial and Coastal Carbon Fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico was held in St. Petersburg, FL, to address the information gaps of carbon fluxes associated with the Gulf of Mexico and to offer recommendations to guide future research. The meeting was attended by over 90 participants from over 50 U.S. and Mexican institutions and agencies. The Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry program (OCB; http://www.us-ocb.org/) sponsored this workshop with support from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the University of South Florida. The goal of the workshop was to bring together researchers from multiple disciplines studying terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems to discuss the state of knowledge in carbon fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, data gaps, and overarching questions in the Gulf of Mexico system. The discussions at the workshop were intended to stimulate integrated studies of marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and associated ecosystems that will help to establish the role of the Gulf of Mexico in the carbon cycle and how it might evolve in the face of environmental change. The information derived from the plenary sessions, questions, and recommendations formulated by the participants will drive future research projects. Further discussion of carbon dynamics is needed to address scales of variability, the infrastructure required for study, and the modeling framework for cross-system integration. During the workshop, participants discussed and provided a number of priorities and recommendations, which are listed on p. 2 of the report. Participants recognized that the key to understanding the Gulf of Mexico system requires international collaboration with scientists from countries adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico. Improved collaboration across existing research community boundaries will be critical and should be encouraged by the funding agencies.

Open-File Report↗

Correlating seabird movements with ocean winds: linking satellite telemetry with ocean scatterometry.

Satellite telemetry studies of the movements of seabirds are now common and have revealed impressive flight capabilities and extensive distributions among individuals and species at sea. Linking seabird movements with environmental conditions over vast expanses of the world's open ocean, however, remains difficult. Seabirds of the order Procellariiformes (e.g., petrels, albatrosses, and shearwaters) depend largely on wind and wave energy for efficient flight. We present a new method for quantifying the movements of far-ranging seabirds in relation to ocean winds measured by the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the QuikSCAT satellite. We apply vector correlation (as defined by Crosby et al. in J Atm Ocean Tech 10:355-367, 1993) to evaluate how the trajectories (ground speed and direction) for five procellariiform seabirds outfitted with satellite transmitters are related to ocean winds. Individual seabirds (Sooty Shearwater, Pink-footed Shearwater, Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel, and Black-footed Albatross) all traveled predominantly with oblique, isotropic crossing to quartering tail-winds (i.e., 105-165 degrees in relation to birds' trajectory). For all five seabirds, entire track line trajectories were significantly correlated with co-located winds. Greatest correlations along 8-day path segments were related to wind patterns during birds' directed, long-range migration (Sooty Shearwater) as well as movements associated with mega-scale meteorological phenomena, including Pacific Basin anticyclones (Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel) and eastward-propagating north Pacific cyclones (Black-footed Albatross). Wind strength and direction are important factors related to the overall movements that delineate the distribution of petrels at sea. We suggest that vector correlation can be used to quantify movements for any marine vertebrate when tracking and environmental data (winds or currents) are of sufficient quality and sample size. Vector correlation coefficients can then be used to assess population--or species-specific variability and used to test specific hypotheses related to how animal movements are associated with fluid environments.

Marine Biology↗

Drivers of landscape change in the northwest boreal region

The northwest boreal region (NWB) of North America is a land of extremes. Extending more than 1.3 million square kilometers (330 million acres), it encompasses the entire spectrum between inundated wetlands below sea level to the tallest peak in North America. Permafrost gradients span from nearly continuous to absent. Boreal ecosystems are inherently dynamic and continually change over decades to millennia. The braided rivers that shape the valleys and wetlands continually change course, creating and removing vast wetlands and peatlands. Glacial melt, erosion, fires, permafrost dynamics, and wind-blown loess are among the shaping forces of the landscape. As a result, species interactions and ecosystem processes are shifting across time. The NWB is a data-poor region, and the intention of the NWB Landscape Conservation Cooperative is to determine what data are not available and what data are available. For instance, historical baseline data describing the economic and social relationships in association with the ecological condition of the NWB landscape are often lacking. Likewise, the size and remoteness of this region make it challenging to measure basic biological information, such as species population sizes or trends. The paucity of weather and climate monitoring stations also compound the ability to model future climate trends and impacts, which is part of the nature of working in the north. The purpose of this volume is to create a resource for regional land and resource managers and researchers by synthesizing the latest research on the historical and current status of landscape-scale drivers (including anthropogenic activities) and ecosystem processes, future projected changes of each, and the effects of changes on important resources. Generally, each chapter is coauthored by researchers and land and natural resource managers from the United States and Canada.

Northwest Boreal Region↗

Landscape determinants of nonindigenous fish invasions

Much has been written about the influence of exotic or nonindigenous species on natural habitats and communities of organisms, but little is known of the physical or biological conditions that lead to successful invasion of native habitats and communities by exotics. We studied invasivity factors in headwater streams of the Susquehanna River West Branch, which drains portions of the northern Appalachian Plateau. A replicated (two major tributaries) 3 × 3 factorial design was used to determine landscape effects of size (stream order) and quality (land use) on abiotic (physical and chemical) and biotic (fish community structure and function) stream attributes. Seven (21%) of thirty-four fish species (brown trout, common carp, mimic shiner, bluegill, smallmouth bass, fantail darter, and banded darter) collected in the eighteen streams sampled were nonindigenous to the basin. Watershed size (stream orders 1, 3, and 5) significantly affected stream geomorphologic and habitat variables (gradient, width, depth, current velocity, diel water temperature, bank overhang, canopy cover, and woody debris density) but not water-quality variables, while land use in watersheds (conservation, mining, and agriculture) significantly affected measured water-quality variables (alkalinity and concentrations of manganese, calcium, chloride, nitrate, and total dissolved solids) but not stream physical or habitat quality. Both watershed size and land use affected fish-community variables such as presence of particular species, species density, species diversity, tolerance diversity, and mean fish size, but in both cases the effect was transparent to native-origin status of fish species. No relationships were found between occurrence of nonindigenous species in watersheds and trophic structure or functional diversity. Therefore, the hypothesis that reduced species diversity increases vulnerability to nonindigenous species was not supported. However, the spatial variation associated with both water-quality and habitat-quality factors was greater in streams with mixed (those with nonindigenous species) than with exclusively native assemblages. These findings suggest that the mechanism for successful invasion by nonindigenous or exotic species is through change in water or habitat quality associated with human or natural disturbances, such as agriculture and mining activities in watersheds. Biotic factors appear to play no or a lesser role in the invasibility of northern Appalachian lotic systems.

Biological Invasions↗