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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

Effects of environmental change on plant species density: Comparing predictions with experiments

Ideally, general ecological relationships may be used to predict responses of natural communities to environmental change, but few attempts have been made to determine the reliability of predictions based on descriptive data. Using a previously published structural equation model (SEM) of descriptive data from a coastal marsh landscape, we compared these predictions against observed changes in plant species density resulting from field experiments (manipulations of soil fertility, flooding, salinity, and mammalian herbivory) in two areas within the same marsh. In general, observed experimental responses were fairly consistent with predictions. The largest discrepancy occurred when sods were transplanted from high- to low-salinity sites and herbivores selectively consumed a particularly palatable plant species in the transplanted sods. Individual plot responses to some treatments were predicted more accurately than others. Individual fertilized plot responses were not consistent with predictions (P > 0.05), nor were fenced plots (herbivore exclosures; R2 = 0.15) compared to unfenced plots (R2 = 0.53). For the remaining treatments, predictions reasonably matched responses (R2 = 0.63). We constructed an SEM for the experimental data; it explained 60% of the variance in species density and showed that fencing and fertilization led to decreases in species density that were not predicted from treatment effects on community biomass or observed disturbance levels. These treatments may have affected the ratio of live to dead biomass, and competitive exclusion likely decreased species density in fenced and fertilized plots. We conclude that experimental validation is required to determine the predictive value of comparative relationships derived from descriptive data.

Louisiana↗

Effects of landscape gradients on wetland vegetation communities: information for large-scale restoration

Projects of the scope of the restoration of the Florida Everglades require substantial information regarding ecological mechanisms, and these are often poorly understood. We provide critical base knowledge for Everglades restoration by characterizing the existing vegetation communities of an Everglades remnant, describing how present and historic hydrology affect wetland vegetation community composition, and documenting change from communities described in previous studies. Vegetation biomass samples were collected along transects across Water Conservation Area 3A South (3AS). Ten community types were present between November 2002 and 2005. Separate analyses for key a priori groups (slough, wet prairie, and sawgrass) provided detailed conclusions about effects of historic hydrology on the vegetation of 3AS. Communities were affected by hydrologic variables LIP to four years previous to the sample. We identified wet prairie/slough species such as Eleocharis spp. and Nymphaea odorata as short-term sentinel species of community change. Sawgrass and N. odorata should be monitored for long-term change. Comparisons to preceding studies indicated that many of the communities of previous times, when conditions were drier, no longer exist in our study area and have been replaced by deeper water community types.

Wetlands↗

Herbicides and herbivory interact to drive plant community and crop‐tree establishment

Land management practices often directly alter vegetation structure and composition, but the degree to which ecological processes such as herbivory interact with management to influence biodiversity is less well understood. We hypothesized that large herbivores compound the effects of intensive forest management on early seral plant communities and plantation establishment (i.e., tree survival and growth), and the degree of such effects is dependent on the intensity of management practices. We established 225 m 2 wild‐ungulate (deer and elk) exclosures, nested within a manipulated gradient of management intensity (no‐herbicide Control, Light herbicide, Moderate herbicide and Intensive herbicide treatments), replicated at the scale of whole harvest units (10‐19 ha). Vegetation structure, composition and crop‐tree responses to herbivory varied across the gradient of herbicide application during the first two years of stand establishment, with herbivory effects most evident at intermediate herbicide treatments. In the Moderate herbicide treatment – which approximates treatments applied to > 2.5 million hectares in Pacific Northwest U.S.A. – foraging by deer and elk resulted in simplified, low‐cover plant communities more closely resembling the Intensive herbicide treatment. Herbivory further suppressed the growth of competing vegetation in the Light herbicide treatment, improving crop‐tree survival, and providing early evidence of an ecosystem service. By changing community composition and vegetation structure, intensive forest management alters foraging selectivity and subsequent plant‐herbivore interactions; initial shifts in early seral communities are likely to influence understory plant communities and tree growth in later stages of forest development.

Oregon↗

Influences of introduced plague on North American mammals: Implications from ecology of plague in Asia

Intercontinental movements of invasive species continue to modify the world's ecosystems. The plague bacterium ( Yersinia pestis ) has colonized and altered animal communities worldwide but has received much more attention as a human pathogen. We reviewed studies on the ecology of Y. pestis in ancient foci of central Asia and in western North America, where the bacterium apparently has become established much more recently. Although rodent populations on both continents are affected dramatically by epizootics of plague, the epidemiologically important species of Asia demonstrate resistance in portions of their populations, whereas those of North America are highly susceptible. Individual variation in resistance, which is widespread in Asian rodents and allows a microevolutionary response, has been documented in few North American species of rodents. Plague increases costs of sociality and coloniality in susceptible hosts, increases benefits of disease resistance in general, and increases benefits of adaptability to variable environments for species at higher trophic levels. Prairie dogs ( Cynomys ) epitomize taxa with high risk to plague because prairie dogs have uniformly low resistance to plague and are highly social. Relationships to plague are poorly understood for many North American rodents, but more than one-half of the species of conservation concern occur within the geographic range of plague.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Differences in native soil ecology associated with invasion of the exotic annual chenopod, Halgeton glomeratus

Various biotic and abiotic components of soil ecology differed significantly across an area where Halogeton glomeratus is invading a native winterfat, [ Krascheninnikovia (= Ceratoides ) lanata ] community. Nutrient levels were significantly different among the native, ecotone, and exotic-derived soils. NO 3 , P, K, and Na all increased as the cover of halogeton increased. Only Ca was highest in the winterfat area. A principal components analysis, conducted separately for water-soluble and exchangeable cations, revealed clear separation between halogeton- and winterfat-derived soils. The diversity of soil bacteria was highest in the exotic, intermediate in the ecotone, and lowest in the native community. Although further studies are necessary, our results offer evidence that invasion by halogeton alters soil chemistry and soil ecology, possibly creating conditions that favor halogeton over native plants.

Biology and Fertility of Soils↗

Toward improved prediction of streamflow effects on freshwater fishes

Understanding the effects of hydrology on fish populations is essential to managing for native fish conservation. However, despite decades of research illustrating streamflow influences on fish habitat, reproduction and survival, biologists remain challenged when tasked with predicting how fish populations will respond to changes in flow regimes. This uncertainty stems from insufficient understanding of the context-dependent mechanisms underlying fish responses to, for example, periods of reduced flow or altered frequency of high-flow events. We aim to address this gap by drawing on previous research to hypothesize mechanisms by which low- and high-flows influence fish populations and communities, identifying challenges that stem from data limitations and ecological complexity, and outlining research directions that can advance an empirical basis for prediction. Focusing flow-ecology research on testing and refining mechanistic hypotheses can help narrow management uncertainties and better support species conservation in changing flow regimes.

Fisheries Magazine↗

An inventory and typology of permanent floodplain lakes in the Mississippi alluvial valley: A first step to conservation planning

The alluvial valley of the Mississippi River is an extensive area harboring hundreds of lakes created by fluvial dynamics. These floodplain lakes are scattered throughout the valley and carved over thousands of years by shifting river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes associated with contemporary and prehistoric rivers. These lakes have significant ecological importance as they support a large component of North American biodiversity. We used remote sensing to catalog lakes, to characterize morphology, and to construct a typology via cluster analysis. We identified over 1,300 permanent lakes totaling over 100,000 ha. The lakes were classified into 12 types according to lake size, shape, depth, connectivity, inundation frequency, and surrounding landcover. We anticipate that biotic characteristics differ among the 12 types, but large-scale systematic analyses of biotic assemblages of floodplain lakes in the region are mostly absent. Our typology can provide the framework essential for organizing research to define water dynamics, water quality, and ecological conditions such as forests, mussel, fish, and avian communities to construct conservation plans. The typology encourages a large-scale view of the properties of floodplain lakes in the alluvial valley. It is a functional tool that can be used to begin identifying conservation and research needs, adapt monitoring and management programs, customize environmental programs, and use conservation resources more effectively to achieve large-scale management objectives.

Mississippi River↗

On incorporating fire into our thinking about natural ecosystems: A response to Saha and Howe

Ecologists long have had a fascination with fire impacts, although they have been slow to incorporate this ecological factor into serious thinking about the structure of communities and evolution of species (Bond and van Wilgen 1996). The remarks by Saha and Howe (2001, in this issue) illustrate some of the problems ecologists have in trying to apply fire to their thinking about natural ecosystems. Fire is commonly perceived qualitatively in terms of presence or absence, and the variation in frequency and intensity, as well as other components of the fire regime (e.g., fig. 1), is ignored. Often not considered is the fact that plant life histories are fine-tuned to particular fire regims, and in this regard, landscapes present a range of selective peaks and valleys, both figuratively and literally. Because landscape patterns affect the propagation of natural fires, it is imperative that the degree of human disturbance be considered (e.g. Marsh [1864] 1965; Gadgil and Guhu 1993) and the limitations of basing evolutionary arguments on anthropogenically derived landscapes be recognized (e.g., Janzen and Martin 1982).

American Naturalist↗

The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA. Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed. Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause. Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic and human influences, generate variation in biotic communities. Thus, future changes to climate may lead to ecological changes through altered fire regimes.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Assemblage structure, vertical distributions and stable‐isotope compositions of anguilliform leptocephali in the Gulf of Mexico

In August 2007, October 2008 and September–October 2010, 241 Tucker trawl and plankton net tows were conducted at the surface to depths of 1377 m at six locations in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to document leptocephalus diversity and determine how assemblage structure, larval size, abundance and isotopic signatures differ across the region and with depth. Overall, 2696 leptocephali representing 59 distinct taxa from 10 families were collected. Five families accounted for 96% of the total catch with Congridae and Ophichthidae being the most abundant. The top four most abundant species composed 59% of the total catch and included: Ariosoma balearicum , Paraconger caudilimbatus , Rhynchoconger flavus and Ophichthus gomesii . Four anguilliform species not previously documented in the GOM as adults or leptocephali were collected in this study, including Monopenchelys acuta , Quassiremus ascensionis , Saurenchelys stylura and one leptocephalus only known from its larval stage, Leptocephalus proboscideus . Leptocephalus catches were significantly greater at night than during the day. Catches at night were concentrated in the upper 200 m of the water column and significantly declined with increasing depth. Leptocephali abundances and assemblages were significantly different between sites on the upper continental slope ( c . 500 m depth) and sites on the middle to lower continental slope ( c . 1500–2300 m). Sites on the lower continental slope had a mixture of deep‐sea demersal, bathypelagic and coastal species, whereas upper‐slope sites contained several numerically dominant species ( e.g ., A. balearicum , P. caudilimbatus ) that probably spawn over the continental shelf and upper slope of the GOM. Standard lengths of the four dominant species differed between sites and years, indicating heterochronic reproduction and potential larval source pools within and outside of the GOM. Stable‐isotope analyses (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) conducted on 185 specimens from six families revealed that leptocephali had a wide range of isotopic values at the family and size‐class levels. Species in the families Muraenidae, Congridae and Ophichthidae had similar δ 15 N values compared with the broad range of δ 15 N values seen in the deep‐sea families Nemichthyidae, Nettastomatidae and Synaphobranchidae. Stable‐isotope values were variably related to length, with δ 15 N values being positively size correlated in ophichthids and δ 13 C values being negatively size correlated in A. balearicum and P. caudilimbatus . Results suggest that leptocephali feed in various water depths and masses, and on different components of POM, which could lead to niche partitioning. Ecological aspects of these important members of the plankton community provide insight into larval connectivity in the GOM as well as the early life history of Anguilliformes.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Environmental DNA sampling reveals high occupancy rates of invasive Burmese pythons at wading bird breeding aggregations in the central Everglades

The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is now established as a breeding population throughout south Florida, USA. However, the extent of the invasion, and the ecological impacts of this novel apex predator on animal communities are incompletely known, in large part because Burmese pythons (hereafter “pythons”) are extremely cryptic and there has been no efficient way to detect them. Pythons are recently confirmed nest predators of long-legged wading bird breeding colonies (orders Ciconiiformes and Pelecaniformes). Pythons can consume large quantities of prey and may not be recognized as predators by wading birds, therefore they could be a particular threat to colonies. To quantify python occupancy rates at tree islands where wading birds breed, we utilized environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis—a genetic tool which detects shed DNA in water samples and provides high detection probabilities. We fitted multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models to test the prediction that pythons occupy islands with wading bird colonies at higher rates compared to representative control islands containing no breeding birds. Our results suggest that pythons are widely distributed across the central Everglades in proximity to active wading bird colonies. In support of our prediction that pythons are attracted to colonies, site-level python eDNA occupancy rates were higher at wading bird colonies (ψ = 0.88, 95% credible interval [0.59–1.00]) than at the control islands (ψ = 0.42 [0.16–0.80]) in April through June (n = 15 colony-control pairs). We found our water temperature proxy (time of day) to be informative of detection probability, in accordance with other studies demonstrating an effect of temperature on eDNA degradation in occupied samples. Individual sample concentrations ranged from 0.26 to 38.29 copies/μL and we generally detected higher concentrations of python eDNA in colony sites. Continued monitoring of wading bird colonies is warranted to determine the effect pythons are having on populations and investigate putative management activities.

Florida↗

Algal and Water-Quality Data for the Yellowstone River and Tributaries, Montana and Wyoming, 1999-2000

Streams of the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana and Wyoming were sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Algal communities were sampled in 1999 in conjunction with other ecological sampling and in 2000 during synoptic sampling. Water-quality measurements related to the algal sampling included light attenuation and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. Sites were sampled on the main-stem Yellowstone River, major tributaries such as the Clarks Fork Yellowstone River and the Bighorn River, and selected minor tributaries. Some of the data collected, such as the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a data, were referenced or summarized in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports but were not previously published in tabular form, and therefore are presented in this report, prepared in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality. Data presented in this report include chlorophyll-a concentrations in phytoplankton and periphyton samples, as well as light attenuation and dissolved-oxygen production data from 1999-2000.

Data Series↗

Nutrient controls on biocomplexity of mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove forests are important coastal ecosystems that provide a variety of ecological and societal services. These intertidal, tree-dominated communities along tropical coastlines are often described as “simple systems,” compared to other tropical forests with larger numbers of plant species and multiple understory strata; however, mangrove ecosystems have complex trophic structures, and organisms exhibit unique physiological, morphological, and behavioral adaptations to environmental conditions characteristic of the land-sea interface. Biogeochemical functioning of mangrove forests is also controlled by interactions among the microbial, plant, and animal communities and feedback linkages mediated by hydrology and other forcing functions. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to understand more fully the impact of nutrient variability on these delicate and important ecosystems.

Fact Sheet↗

Improving paleoecology studies for future predictions: Role of spatial and temporal scales for understanding ecology of the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest

Paleoecology (or ecological biogeography) describes the past distribution of species or communities and is an informative path used to understand the future in the face of climate change. Paleoecological changes in the Southwest over the past several thousand years happened in the presence of landscape manipulations by humans, a factor that adds relevance but increases difficulty of interpretation. What paleo-records are needed for (1) understanding past climate-driven changes (climate proxies), (2) resolving species sensitivity to and resilience against change (biogeographical data), and (3) understanding past ecosystem function and changes (environmental data)? What information is most urgently needed for ecosystem forecasts, and are there kinds of monitoring we need to start now so that we will have ground truth in the near future? These are major questions. Answering them for the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest in part relies on careful thought about the spatial and temporal scales of data needed.

Southwest United States↗

Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community. The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations. Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is characterized by a slight-green color, with varying water clarity, low dissolved oxygen (indicative of deep groundwater), and a hydrogen sulfide odor. Water-quality samples detected ammonium-nitrogen and nitrates, but at low concentrations. The drinking water standard for nitrate adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is 10 milligrams per liter, measured as nitrogen. Water samples collected at spring vents by divers on April 29, 2015, had concentrations of 0.9 milligram per liter nitrate-nitrogen at vent A and 0.04–0.05 milligram per liter at vents B, C, and D. Typically, the water clarity is highest in the morning (about 30 feet Secchi depth) and often decreases throughout the day. Analysis of existing data provided some insight into the hydrologic processes affecting Warm Mineral Springs; however, data have been sparsely and discontinuously collected since the 1940s. Continuous monitoring of hydrologic characteristics such as discharge, water temperature, specific conductance, and water-quality indicators, such as nitrate and turbidity (water clarity), would be valuable for monitoring and development of models of spring discharge and water quality. In addition, water samples could be analyzed for isotopic tracers, such as strontium, and the results used to identify and quantify the sources of groundwater that discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Groundwater flow/transport models could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the quality and quantity of water flowing from Warm Mineral Springs to changes in climate, aquifer levels, and water use.

Florida↗

Louisiana waterthrush and benthic macroinvertebrate response to shale gas development

Because shale gas development is occurring over large landscapes and consequently is affecting many headwater streams, an understanding of its effects on headwater-stream faunal communities is needed. We examined effects of shale gas development (well pads and associated infrastructure) on Louisiana waterthrush Parkesia motacilla and benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 12 West Virginia headwater streams in 2011. Streams were classed as impacted ( n = 6) or unimpacted ( n = 6) by shale gas development. We quantified waterthrush demography (nest success, clutch size, number of fledglings, territory density), a waterthrush Habitat Suitability Index, a Rapid Bioassessment Protocol habitat index, and benthic macroinvertebrate metrics including a genus-level stream-quality index for each stream. We compared each benthic metric between impacted and unimpacted streams with a Student's t -test that incorporated adjustments for normalizing data. Impacted streams had lower genus-level stream-quality index scores; lower overall and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness; fewer intolerant taxa, more tolerant taxa, and greater density of 0–3-mm individuals ( P ≤ 0.10). We then used Pearson correlation to relate waterthrush metrics to benthic metrics across the 12 streams. Territory density (no. of territories/km of stream) was greater on streams with higher genus-level stream-quality index scores; greater density of all taxa and Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa; and greater biomass. Clutch size was greater on streams with higher genus-level stream-quality index scores. Nest survival analyses ( n = 43 nests) completed with Program MARK suggested minimal influence of benthic metrics compared with nest stage and Habitat Suitability Index score. Although our study spanned only one season, our results suggest that shale gas development affected waterthrush and benthic communities in the headwater streams we studied. Thus, these ecological effects of shale gas development warrant closer examination.

West Virginia↗

Methods for Evaluating Wetland Condition #12: Using Amphibians in Bioassessments of Wetlands

Because amphibians have both aquatic and terrestrial life stages they can serve in a unique way among vertebrates as sources of information for bioassessments of both wetlands and surrounding habitats. Although there are many data gaps in our knowledge about the habitat requirements and ecology of many amphibian species, it is apparent that community composition, presence and frequency of abnormalities, various mensural characteristics (e.g. snout vent length divided by body weight) and laboratory diagnostics (e.g. cholinesterase activity, blood chemistry) can be used in developing metrics for an index of biotic integrity. In addition, potential metrics can be derived from the various life stages that most amphibians experience such as egg clusters; embryonic development and hatching rates; tadpole growth, development, and survival; progress and success of metamorphosis; and breeding behavior and presence of adults. It is important, however, to focus on regional biodiversity and species assemblages of amphibians in the development of metrics rather than to strive for broadscale application of common metrics. This report discusses the procedures of developing an index of biotic integrity based on amphibians, explains potential pitfalls in using amphibians in bioassessments, and demonstrates where more research is needed to enhance the use of amphibians in evaluating wetland conditions.

Report↗

Predicting coastal retreat in the Florida Big Bend region of the Gulf Coast under climate change induced sea-level rise

Many wildlife preserves and refuges in coastal areas of our nation are slowly being inundated by rising sea-level. Land elevation and tidal flooding are key factors controlling the extent and zonation of coastal habitats. Warming of our global environment threatens to speed the rate of sea-level rise and perhaps further amplify the detrimental effects of tropical storms, droughts, and lightning fires. A field and modeling study was conducted to determine the current status of emergent vegetation and surficial hydrology and to predict marsh transgression under rising sea-level. Field surveys were conducted to relate vegetation cover and ecotones to surface elevation and tidal inundation. A regional site application of a GIS-based simulation model, WETLANDS, was developed to predict ecosystem response to changing sea-level conditions on a coastal reach of the Big Bend region in northwest Florida. The WETLANDS model contains functional probabilities of community tolerance to flooding conditions that dictate the rate and process of ecological succession and coastal retreat. Map information of hypsography and bathymetry of the study area were digitized and interpolated to construct a digital elevation model. Classified thematic mapper imagery of aquatic and terrestrial habitat at a community level was used to initialize model simulation by vegetative type. Model simulations were generated to predict a likelihood index of habitat change and conversion under different scenarios of sea-level rise. The WETLANDS model was applied to track the process and pattern of coastal inundation over space and time for low, mid, and high sea-level rise projections of 15, 50, and 95 cm over the next century. Model results indicated that major portions of this coastal zone will be permanently inundated by 2100, bringing about a combined migration of marsh habitat and displacement of forest habitat. Results show that lowland pine forests will undergo retreat on the order of thousands of hectares over the 21st century. Coastal marsh extent may actually increase slightly as a function of the low lying topography. Socioeconomic implications may be nominal for this area given its remote and fairly undeveloped and protected coast-202 line. The model offers a technological tool for research and policy purposes that allows for effective land and water management, risk assessment, and cumulative impact analysis of wetland systems and landscapes.

Florida↗