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USGS2026

Integrating climate data and river modeling to reveal Chinook salmon habitat conditions in subarctic river basins

Climatic extremes can impact the productivity of aquatic species, affecting ecosystems and fishery-dependent communities. Advances in climate products, such as gridded datasets and downscaled projections, may be useful for quantifying freshwater habitat conditions and predicting climate change effects on fish. However, limited guidance exists for selecting climate products to develop indicators of freshwater habitat conditions that influence fish population dynamics. Here, we develop an approach for identifying streamflow and stream temperature models to address this need. We evaluated skill in predicted versus observed streamflow and stream temperature, with predictions depending on different models and gridded climate data as inputs. The best performing models were used in a case study exploring habitat conditions influencing Chinook salmon in the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins, two remote high-latitude watersheds with few in situ habitat observations and recent salmon declines. Three modeled streamflow datasets had variable performance (median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies from 0.39 to 0.70). Three gridded temperature products differed in their ability to explain variation in weekly stream temperatures (median r 2 from 0.42 to 0.76). We selected a single gridded air temperature dataset to compare two novel predictive stream temperature models, both of which had good accuracy (root mean squared error [RMSE] of 1.19 and 0.95°C). Stream temperature indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum temperatures during adult migration and cumulative temperatures during juvenile rearing, had high spatial correlation across tributaries within the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins and showed significant warming over the past 40 years. Streamflow indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum flow during spawning and median flow during rearing, had few trends and were largely uncorrelated within the Yukon River basin and moderately correlated within the Kuskokwim River basin. Overall, we found that generic measures of model performance varied considerably, and it was important to consider the models best suited to our case study. For both streamflow and stream temperature, multiple high-performing models allowed estimation of ecologically relevant conditions affecting Chinook salmon. The approach we used to estimate local-scale habitat conditions has value to identify synchronous conditions that may influence multiple salmon populations under a changing subarctic climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Climate-induced expansions of invasive species in the Pacific Northwest, North America: A synthesis of observations and projections

Climate change may facilitate the expansion of non-native invasive species (NIS) in aquatic and terrestrial systems. However, empirical evidence remains scarce and poorly synthesized at scales necessary for effective management. We conducted a literature synthesis to assess the state of research on the observed and predicted effects of climate change on a suite of 398 aquatic and terrestrial NIS now present in or a major threat to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA and British Columbia. Surprisingly, very few studies (n = 15) have investigated the observed effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance, spread, or impact of the focal NIS, with only five studies focusing on terrestrial (n = 2) or aquatic (n = 3) species within the PNW. Only 93 studies predicted the future dynamics of the focal NIS somewhere in their non-native range using climate model projections, yielding 117 species-specific predictions. However, only 30 of those studies generated predictions that overlapped with the PNW, and only six focused specifically on the expansion or abundance of NIS (n = 11 species) entirely within the region. Although our understanding of how climate change may interact with biological invasions is notably lacking, some evidence suggests that climate-induced NIS expansions are already underway in the PNW, particularly in aquatic ecosystems, and will be exacerbated by future changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Better information is urgently needed for managers to implement strategic prevention, early detection, and proactive actions that ameliorate ecologically and economically devastating impacts of NIS.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, ↗

USGS2024

Forecasting storm-induced coastal flooding for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios in the Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands

Oceanographic, coastal engineering, ecologic, and geospatial data and tools were combined to evaluate the increased risks of storm-induced coastal flooding in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. We followed a hybrid (dynamical and statistical) downscaling approach to map flooding due to waves and storm surge at 10-square meter resolution along all 1,870 kilometers of these islands’ coastlines for annual (1-year), 20-year, and 100-year return-interval storm events and +0.00 meter (m), +0.25 m, +0.50 m, +1.00 m, +1.50 m, +2.00 m, and +3.00 m sea-level rise scenarios. We quantified the coastal flood depths and extents using the latest climate forcing from Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The data generated using these methods provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when climate change and sea-level rise increase coastal storm-induced flooding to help identify areas where management and (or) restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, the coastal communities in the populated Hawaiian, Mariana, and American Samoan Islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

A systematic review of the effects of climate variability and change on black and brown bear ecology and interactions with humans

Climate change poses a pervasive threat to humans and wildlife by altering resource availability, changing co-occurrences, and directly or indirectly influencing human-wildlife interactions. For many wildlife agencies in North America, managing bears ( Ursus spp.) and human-bear interactions is a priority, yet the direct and indirect effects of climate change are exacerbating management challenges. Understanding the underlying ecological drivers of bear responses to climate variability and change, and the implications for conflict, will be critical for maintaining human-bear coexistence in North America. We synthesized 120 articles that identified direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate variability and change affect brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) and American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in North America. The literature focused on examining climate impacts on bear diet, body size, habitat selection, space use, activity, denning chronology, and population demographics and dynamics. Across these categories, we summarized the documented and projected bear responses and resulting implications for human-bear interactions. Climate-driven changes in natural food availability were frequently implicated in influencing bear behavior and demography, and creating conditions under which interactions with humans are likely to increase. Bears in North America may face increased challenges as habitat and natural food availability continue to be altered by climate change. Our review provides a foundation upon which to identify climate drivers of bear ecology, conditions conducive to human-bear interactions, and adaptive management strategies. Given substantial evidence of climate impacts to bears, incorporating climate considerations into bear management can help managers strategically allocate resources and promote human-bear coexistence.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2021

Climate-mediated changes to linked terrestrial and marine ecosystems across the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

BioScience↗

USGS2025

Climatological effects on survival, recruitment, and possible extirpation of a Sierra Nevada anuran

The drivers of population dynamics are a primary interest of ecologists, and predicting the consequences of climate variability on wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of how weather causes variation in the vital rates of populations. Given recent and projected extremes in annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, including two severe droughts, we sought to examine the role of snowpack and summer water availability on the population dynamics and potential extirpation of a meadow population of the U.S. Endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog ( Rana sierrae ) using a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset. We found that snowpack and summer water availability affected both survival and recruitment probabilities. Although these variables only explained approximately 17 % of the annual variation in adult survival, they explained 81 % of the variation in recruitment into the adult population. Following two severe, extended droughts and a nearby wildfire, the population consisted of 20 or fewer individuals with >95 % certainty, and 10 or fewer individuals with 64 % certainty. If realized, increased precipitation volatility and extended droughts likely present an additional threat to some meadow populations of this endangered frog.

California↗

USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2017

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu ( Myocastor coypus )

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu ( Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model ( GCM ) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs , but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

NeoBiota↗

USGS2012

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗

USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Biocrusts enhance soil fertility and Bromus tectorum growth, and interact with warming to influence germination

Background and aims Biocrusts are communities of cyanobacteria, mosses, and/or lichens found in drylands worldwide. Biocrusts are proposed to enhance soil fertility and productivity, but simultaneously act as a barrier to the invasive grass, Bromus tectorum , in western North America. Both biocrusts and B. tectorum are sensitive to climate change drivers, yet how their responses might interact to affect dryland ecosystems is unclear. Methods Using mesocosms with bare soil versus biocrust cover, we germinated B. tectorum seeds collected from warmed, warmed + watered, and ambient temperature plots within a long-term climate change experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We characterized biocrust influences on soil fertility and grass germination, morphology, and chemistry. Results Biocrusts increased soil fertility and B. tectorum biomass, specific leaf area (SLA), and root:shoot ratios. Germination rates were unaffected by mesocosm cover-type. Biocrusts delayed germination timing while also interacting with the warmed treatment to advance, and with the warmed + watered treatment to delay germination. Conclusions Biocrusts promoted B. tectorum growth, likely through positive influence on soil fertility which was elevated in biocrust mesocosms, and interacted with seed treatment-provenance to affect germination. Understanding how anticipated losses of biocrusts will affect invasion dynamics will require further investigation of how plant plasticity/adaptation to specific climate drivers interact with soil and biocrust properties.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2023

Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change

In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change dynamics in coastal marshes and mangrove forests. Whereas past studies that utilized the SET-MH approach have most often quantified rates of surface elevation change using simple linear regression analyses, several recent studies have shown that elevation patterns can include a diverse combination of linear and non-linear patterns. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an extension of generalized linear models (GLMs) that have previously been used to analyze a variety of complex ecological processes such as cyclical changes in water quality, species distributions, long-term patterns in wetland area change, and palaeoecological time series. Here, we use long-term SET data to demonstrate the value of generalized additive models for analyzing non-linear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands. Additionally, we illustrate how the GAM approach can be used to effectively quantify rates of elevation change at both landscape- and local site-level scales.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2013

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗

USGS2023

Thermography captures the differential sensitivity of dryland functional types to changes in rainfall event timing and magnitude

Drylands of the southwestern United States are rapidly warming, and rainfall is becoming less frequent and more intense, with major yet poorly understood implications for ecosystem structure and function. Thermography-based estimates of plant temperature can be integrated with air temperature to infer changes in plant physiology and response to climate change. However, very few studies have evaluated plant temperature dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolution in rainfall pulse-driven dryland ecosystems. We address this gap by incorporating high-frequency thermal imaging into a field-based precipitation manipulation experiment in a semi-arid grassland to investigate the impacts of rainfall temporal repackaging. All other factors held constant, we found that fewer/larger precipitation events led to cooler plant temperatures (1.4°C) compared to that of many/smaller precipitation events. Perennials, in particular, were 2.5°C cooler than annuals under the fewest/largest treatment. We show these patterns were driven by: increased and consistent soil moisture availability in the deeper soil layers in the fewest/largest treatment; and deeper roots of perennials providing access to deeper plant available water. Our findings highlight the potential for high spatiotemporal resolution thermography to quantify the differential sensitivity of plant functional groups to soil water availability. Detecting these sensitivities is vital to understanding the ecohydrological implications of hydroclimate change.

New Phytologist↗

USGS2009

Fort Collins Science Center Ecosystem Dynamics Branch

Complex natural resource issues require understanding a web of interactions among ecosystem components that are (1) interdisciplinary, encompassing physical, chemical, and biological processes; (2) spatially complex, involving movements of animals, water, and airborne materials across a range of landscapes and jurisdictions; and (3) temporally complex, occurring over days, weeks, or years, sometimes involving response lags to alteration or exhibiting large natural variation. Scientists in the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, investigate a diversity of these complex natural resource questions at the landscape and systems levels. This Fact Sheet describes the work of the Ecosystems Dynamics Branch, which is focused on energy and land use, climate change and long-term integrated assessments, herbivore-ecosystem interactions, fire and post-fire restoration, and environmental flows and river restoration.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2010

Using GIS and Google Earth for the creation of the Going-to-the-Sun Road Avalanche Atlas, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Snow avalanche paths are key geomorphologic features in Glacier National Park, Montana, and an important component of mountain ecosystems: they are isolated within a larger ecosystem, they are continuously disturbed, and they contain unique physical characteristics (Malanson and Butler, 1984). Avalanches impact subalpine forest structure and function, as well as overall biodiversity (Bebi et al., 2009). Because avalanches are dynamic phenomena, avalanche path geometry and spatial extent depend upon climatic regimes. The USGS/GNP Avalanche Program formally began in 2003 as an avalanche forecasting program for the spring opening of the ever-popular Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR), which crosses through 37 identified avalanche paths. Avalanche safety and forecasting is a necessary part of the GTSR spring opening procedures. An avalanche atlas detailing topographic parameters and oblique photographs was completed for the GTSR corridor in response to a request from GNP personnel for planning and resource management. Using ArcMap 9.2 GIS software, polygons were created for every avalanche path affecting the GTSR using aerial imagery, field-based observations, and GPS measurements of sub-meter accuracy. Spatial attributes for each path were derived within the GIS. Resulting products include an avalanche atlas book for operational use, a geoPDF of the atlas, and a Google Earth flyover illustrating each path and associated photographs. The avalanche atlas aids park management in worker safety, infrastructure planning, and natural resource protection by identifying avalanche path patterns and location. The atlas was created for operational and planning purposes and is also used as a foundation for research such as avalanche ecology projects and avalanche path runout modeling.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Program MAMO: Models for avian management optimization-user guide

The following chapters describe the structure and code of MAMO, and walk the reader through running the different components of the program with sample data. This manual should be used alongside a computer running R, so that the reader can copy and paste code into R, observe the output, and follow along interactively. Taken together, chapters 2–4 will allow the user to replicate a simulation study investigating the consequences of climate change and two potential management actions on the population dynamics of a vulnerable and iconic Hawaiian forest bird, the ‘I‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea; hereafter IIWI).

Technical Report↗