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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Characterizing ground motion amplification by extensive flat sediments: The seismic response of the eastern U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain strata

We examine the effects that Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata have on ground motions in the eastern and southeastern United States. The ACP strata consist of widespread, nearly flat‐lying sediments, the upper portions of which are unconsolidated or semiconsolidated. The ACP sediments are deposited primarily on crystalline basement rocks, creating large velocity and density contrasts with the underlying rocks. At 211 sites on ACP strata to thicknesses of 4000 m, we compute spectral ratios relative to the average of four bedrock sites west or northwest of the strata. Sites consist of stations of Earthscope’s USArray Transportable Array (TA), and temporary deployments in the Southeast Suture of the Atlantic Margin Experiment (SESAME), Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) experiment, and the DCShake deployment in Washington, D.C. For the TA and SESAME stations, we use signals from 13 teleseisms and three regional earthquakes as input, combining the north and east components of motion after taking the Fourier transforms. We also include similarly processed site responses from the ENAM and DCShake arrays that were computed in earlier studies. Results show prominent, fundamental resonance peaks at frequencies determined by reverberations in the entire sediment column, and that often define the largest amplifications for each frequency. As frequencies increase, these resonance peaks migrate to thinner ACP strata and increase in amplitude. The peaks are well defined at frequencies below about 1 Hz, but become narrower and less defined regionally at higher frequencies. We develop simple equations to characterize amplification versus ACP thickness, which we approximate by cosine and Gaussian curves with amplifications of 1 on bedrock and rising to the resonance peak, and then decreasing to an average amplification at thicknesses greater than twice the resonance peak. Comparisons with other site corrections for the central and eastern United States based on sediment thickness show similarities on thin ACP strata but divergence on thicker sediments. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of using teleseismic arrivals to characterize the site responses of sedimentary sequences.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

Characterizing stress orientations in southern Kansas

Induced seismicity predominantly occurs along faults that are optimally oriented to the local principal compressive stress direction, and the characterization of these stress orientations is an important component of understanding seismic hazards. The seismicity rate in southern Kansas rapidly increased in 2013 primarily due to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group. Previously, local stress orientations in this area were poorly constrained, which limited our understanding of the complex faulting and diverse earthquake mechanisms in this region. We use shear‐wave splitting and focal mechanism inversion techniques to create multiple, independent estimates of maximum horizontal stress directions ( ⁠ S H max ">

Kansas↗
USGS2021

The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences

This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock‐advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016) . Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock‐advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain

Dynamic strains have never played a role in determining local earthquake magnitudes, which are routinely set by displacement waveforms from seismic instrumentation (e.g., M L ⁠ ). We present a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms. This scale is derived from the peak root‐mean‐squared strains ( ⁠ A ⁠ ) in 4589 records of dynamic strain associated with 365 crustal earthquakes and 77 borehole strainmeters along the Pacific‐North American plate boundary on the west coast of the United States and Canada. In this data set, catalog moment magnitudes range from 3.5≤ M w ≤ 7.2 ⁠ , and hypocentral distances range from 6≤ R ≤500 km . The 1D representation of geometrical spreading and attenuation of A common to all strain data is log A 0 ( R )=−0.00072R−1.45log(R) . After correcting for instrument gain, site terms, and event terms, the magnitude scale, M DS =log A −log A 0 ( R )−log(3×10−9) ⁠ , scales as ≈0.92 M w with a residual standard deviation of 0.19. This close association with M w holds for events east of the −124° meridian; west of this boundary, however, a constant correction of 0.41 is needed to adjust for additional along‐path attenuation effects. As a check on the accuracy of this magnitude scale, we apply it to dynamic strain records from three strainmeters located in the near field of the 2019 M 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. Results from these six records are in agreement to within 0.5 magnitude units, and five out of six records are in agreement to within 0.34 units.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Rupture passing probabilities at fault bends and steps, with application to rupture length probabilities for earthquake early warning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can quickly identify the beginning of a significant earthquake rupture, but the first seconds of seismic data have not been found to predict the final rupture length. We present two approaches for estimating probabilities of rupture length given the rupture initiation from an EEW system. In the first approach, bends and steps on the fault are interpreted as physical mechanisms for rupture arrest. Arrest probability relations are developed from empirical observations and depend on bend angle and step size. Probability of arrest compounds serially with increasing rupture length as bends or steps are encountered. In the second approach, time‐independent rates among ruptures from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), are interpreted to apply to the time‐dependent condition in which rupture grows from a known starting point. Length probabilities from a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation provide a reference of comparison. We illustrate the new approach using the discretized fault model for California developed for UCERF3. For the case of rupture initiating on the southeast end of the San Andreas fault we find the geometric complexity of the Mill Creek section impedes most ruptures, and only ∼5% are predicted to reach to San Bernardino on the eastern edge of the greater Los Angeles region. Conditional probabilities of length can be precompiled in this manner for any initiation point on the fault system and thus are of potential value in seismic hazard and EEW applications.

California↗
USGS2021

Survey of fragile geologic features and their quasi-static earthquake ground-motion constraints, southern Oregon

Fragile geologic features (FGFs), which are extant on the landscape but vulnerable to earthquake ground shaking, may provide geological constraints on the intensity of prior shaking. These empirical constraints are particularly important in regions such as the Pacific Northwest that have not experienced a megathrust earthquake in written history. Here, we describe our field survey of FGFs in southern Oregon. We documented 58 features with fragile geometric characteristics, as determined from field measurements of size and strength, historical photographs, and light detection and ranging point clouds. Among the surveyed FGFs, sea stacks have particular advantages for use as ground‐motion constraints: (1) they are frequently tall and thin; (2) they are widely distributed parallel to the coast, proximal to the trench and the likely megathrust rupture surface; and (3) they are formed by sea cliff retreat, meaning that their ages may be coarsely estimated as a function of distance from the coast. About 40% of the surveyed sea stacks appear to have survived multiple Cascadia megathrust earthquakes. Using a quasi‐static analysis, we estimate the minimum horizontal ground accelerations that could fracture the rock pillars. We provide context for the quasi‐static results by comparing them with predictions from kinematic simulations and ground‐motion prediction equations. Among the sea stacks old enough to have survived multiple megathrust earthquakes ( n = 16), eight yield breaking accelerations lower than the predictions, although they generally overlap within uncertainty. FGFs with the lowest breaking accelerations are distributed uniformly over 130 km of coastline. Results for inland features, such as speleothems, are in close agreement with the predictions. We conclude that FGFs show promise for investigating both past earthquake shaking and its spatial variability along the coasts of Oregon and Washington, where sea stacks are often prevalent. Future work can refine our understanding of FGF age and evolution.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Structure and Qp-Qs relations in the Seattle and Tualatin basins from converted seismic phases

We use converted body‐wave phases from local earthquakes to constrain depth to basement and average attenuation relations for the Seattle basin in Washington and the Tualatin basin in Oregon. P ‐, P‐to‐S ‐( Ps ), S‐to‐P‐ ( Sp ), and S ‐wave arrivals are present in three‐component recordings of magnitude 2.5–4.0 earthquakes at seismic stations located in these basins. Based on their relative travel times, these phases are attributed to body‐wave conversions at the basement‐to‐basin contact or to high‐impedance interfaces within the basins. Depth to basement values are calculated using the differential travel times between direct and converted phases, as well as average P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity values. We also identify a high‐impedance layer in the Tualatin basin that likely represents a laterally extensive deposit of volcanic materials embedded between the basement contact and the Columbia River Basalt Group. In addition, the average Q P – Q S "> Q P - Q S attenuation relation is calculated for each station by taking the spectral ratio of converted phases to their parent body‐wave arrivals. For the Seattle basin, our analysis yields an average Q P "> Q P value of 73 and an average Q S "> Q S value of 60 for seismic waves with frequencies between 2 and 25 Hz. In the Tualatin basin, a much reduced Q P – Q S "> Q P – Q S relation suggests that average body‐wave attenuation is likely higher than in the Seattle basin. The converted phase techniques presented here provide a reliable way to develop estimates of basin depth and attenuation structure for undercharacterized regions using simple passive source seismic records.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Evaluating spectral ratio methods for characterizing fundamental resonance peaks on flat sediments: An example from the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern United States

Damaging ground motions from the 2011 M w "> M w 5.8 Virginia earthquake were likely increased due to site amplification from the unconsolidated sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), highlighting the need to understand site response on these widespread strata along the coastal regions of the eastern United States. The horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, using either earthquake signals or ambient noise as input, offers an appealing method for measuring site response on laterally extensive sediments, because it requires a single seismometer rather than requiring a nearby bedrock site to compute a horizontal sediment‐to‐bedrock spectral ratio (SBSR). Although previous studies show mixed results when comparing the two methods, the majority of these studies investigated site responses in confined sedimentary basins that can generate substantial 3D effects or have relatively small reflection coefficients at their base. In contrast, the flat‐lying ACP strata and the underlying bedrock reflector should cause 1D resonance effects to dominate site response, with amplification of the fundamental resonance peaks controlled by the strong impedance contrast between the base of the sediments and the underlying bedrock. We compare site‐response estimates on the ACP strata derived using the HVSR and SBSR methods from teleseismic signals recorded by regional arrays and observe a close match in the frequencies of the fundamental resonance peak ( ⁠ f 0 "> f 0 ⁠ ) determined by both methods. We find that correcting the HVSR amplitude using source term information from a bedrock site and multiplying the peak by a factor of 1.2 results in amplitude peaks that, on average, match SBSR results within a factor of 2. We therefore conclude that the HVSR method may successfully estimate regional linear weak‐motion site‐response amplifications from the ACP, or similar geologic environments, when appropriate region‐specific corrections to the amplitude ratios are used.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗
USGS2021

The seismic hazard implications of declustering and poisson assumptions inferred from a fully time‐dependent model

We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumption in classic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We use 500,000 yr, M ≥ 2.5 synthetic catalogs to address this question, for which UCERF3‐ETAS exhibits realistic spatiotemporal clustering effects (e.g., aftershocks). We find that Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering, used in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models, lowers 2% in 50 yr and risk‐targeted ground‐motion hazard metrics by about 4% on average (compared with the full time‐dependent [TD] model), with the reduction being 5% at 40% in 50 yr ground motions. Keeping all earthquakes and treating them as a Poisson process increases these same hazard metrics by about 3%–12%, on average, due to the removal of relatively quiet time periods in the full TD model. In the interest of model simplification, bias minimization, and consideration of the probabilities of multiple exceedances, we agree with others ( Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014 ) that we are better off keeping aftershocks and treating them as a Poisson process rather than removing them from hazard consideration via declustering. Honoring the true time dependence, however, will likely be important for other hazard and risk metrics, and this study further exemplifies how this can now be evaluated more extensively.

California↗
USGS2021

Basin and site effects in the U.S. Pacific Northwest estimated from small‐magnitude earthquakes

Earthquake hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) are increased by the presence of deep sedimentary basins that amplify and prolong ground shaking. To better understand basin and site effects on ground motions, we compile a database of recordings from crustal and intraslab earthquakes. We process 8028 records with magnitudes from 3.5 to 6.8 and hypocentral depths up to 62 km to compute Fourier amplitude spectra of ground acceleration for frequencies of 0–20 Hz. We compute residuals relative to the Bayless and Abrahamson (2019; hereafter, BA18) ground‐motion model and perform a series of linear, crossed, mixed‐effects regressions. In addition to estimating the bias, event, and site terms, we incorporate groupings for broad regionalized site response in three different regions (Seattle basin, Puget Lowland, non‐Puget Lowland), for effects from seismotectonic regime (crustal and intraslab sources), and for interactions between the regions and seismotectonic regimes. We find that the scaling of site response with respect to V S 30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 m) and to basin depth indicators Z 1.0 and Z 2.5 (depths to the 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear‐wave velocity horizons) is generally consistent with BA18; however, the region terms display strong spatial amplification patterns. For frequencies less than 5 Hz, the Seattle basin amplifies ground motions up to a factor of four, relative to the non‐Puget Lowland, with a maximum amplification around near 0.5 Hz. Sites in the Puget Lowland amplify low frequencies up to a factor of 2.5. At higher frequencies ( ⁠ f > 5 Hz ⁠ ), the Puget Lowland and Seattle basin show regional deamplification of ground motions, with the smallest average amplification factor of 0.65 occurring at 10.0 Hz. Although we observe slight differences in the seismotectonic regime terms, we find that the region terms are significantly more important for modeling earthquake hazard in the PNW.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

Diffuse deformation and surface faulting distribution from sub-metric image correlation along the 2019 Ridgecrest ruptures (California, USA)

The 2019 M w "> M w 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (July 2019) ruptured consecutively a system of high‐angle strike‐slip cross faults (northeast‐ and northwest‐trending) within 34 hr. The complex rupture mechanism was illuminated by seismological and geodetic data, bringing forward the issue of the interdependency of the two fault systems both at depth and at the surface, and of its effect on the final surface displacement pattern. Here, we use high‐resolution (WorldView and Pleiades) optical satellite image correlation to measure the near‐fault horizontal and vertical surface displacement fields at 0.5 m ground resolution for the two earthquakes. We point out significant differences with previous geodetic‐ and geologic‐based measurements, and document the essential role of distributed faulting and diffuse deformation in producing the observed surface displacement patterns. We derive strain fields from the horizontal displacement maps, and highlight the predominant role of rotation and shear strain in the surface rupture process. We discuss the segmentation of the rupture based on the fault geometry and along‐strike slip variations. We also image several northeast‐trending faults with similar orientation to the deeply embedded shear fabric identified in aftershock studies, and show that these cross faults are present all along the rupture, including at a scale <100 m. Finally, we compare our results to kinematic slip inversions, and show that the surface diffuse deformation is primarily associated with areas of shallow slip deficit; however, this diffuse deformation cannot be explained using elastic modeling. We conclude that inelastic processes play an important role in contributing to the total surface deformation associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence.

California↗
USGS2021

Creep on the Sargent Fault over the past 50 yr from alignment arrays with implications for slip transfer between the Calaveras and San Andreas Faults, California

The 55‐km‐long Sargent fault connects the creeping Calaveras fault with the locked San Andreas fault through the Santa Cruz Mountains west of Gilroy, California. The position of the Sargent fault between these two faults may have implications for slip transfer and strain accumulation between a creeping and locked fault. The detection and measurement of creep on the Sargent fault would indicate where interseismic strain is accumulating adjacent to these neighboring faults. In 1969, two alignment arrays separated by 3.7 km were installed across the central section of the Sargent fault to investigate potential creep. These arrays were measured in 1970 and 1975, and comparison of these measurements yielded a creep rate of 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr across two fault strands in the northern array; results from the southern array were never published. In 2019 and 2020, we resurveyed both arrays using a total station and analyzed the results to determine accumulated fault creep. Our results show that between 1970 and 2020, a period of 49.3 yr, the northern array was dextrally offset 164 ± 25 mm across the same two fault strands that were active in the 1970s, yielding an average creep rate of 3.3 ± 1.3 mm/yr. Thus, it appears that the 5 and 50 yr creep rates at this site are similar. The southern array, which may not span the entire fault zone, was dextrally offset 84 ± 13 mm across two fault strands between 1970 and 2019, yielding an average creep rate of 1.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr over 48.9 yr. These recent surveys document continued creep on the Sargent fault, which may reduce seismic strain accumulation and therefore seismic hazard. However, continued aseismic slip on this fault may result in the redistribution of stress and strain to adjacent faults and should be an area of continued study.

California↗
USGS2021

A ground motion model for GNSS peak ground displacement

We present an updated ground‐motion model (GMM) for M w "> M w Mw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and engineering applications, including source characterization, seismic hazard evaluations, loss estimates, and seismic design standards. A typical GMM is characterized by simplified metrics describing the earthquake source (magnitude), observation distance, and site terms. Most often, GMMs are derived from broadband seismometer and accelerometer observations, yet during strong shaking, these traditional seismic instruments are affected by baseline offsets, leading to inaccurate recordings of low‐frequency ground motions such as displacement. The incorporation of geodetic data sources, particularly for characterizing the unsaturated ground displacement of large‐magnitude events, has proven valuable as a complement to traditional seismic approaches and led to the development of an initial point‐source GMM based on PGD estimated from high‐rate GNSS data. Here, we improve the existing GMM to more effectively account for fault finiteness, slip heterogeneity, and observation distance. We evaluate the limitations of the currently available GNSS earthquake data set to calibrate the GMM. In particular, the observed earthquake data set is lacking in observations within 100 km of large‐magnitude events ( ⁠ M w &gt; 8 "> M w > 8 Mw>8 ⁠ ), inhibiting evaluation of fault dimensions for earthquakes too large to be represented as point sources in the near field. To that end, we separately consider previously validated synthetic GNSS waveforms within 10–1000 km of M w "> M w Mw 7.8–9.3 Cascadia subduction zone scenario ruptures. The synthetic data highlight the importance of fault distance rather than point‐source metrics and improve our preparedness for large‐magnitude earthquakes with spatiotemporal qualities unlike those in our existing data set.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

Probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessment (PFDHA) for nuclear installations according to IAEA safety standards

In the last 10 yr, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revised its safety standards for site evaluations of nuclear installations in response to emerging fault displacement hazard evaluation practices developed in Member States. New amendments in the revised safety guidance (DS507) explicitly recommend fault displacement hazard assessment, including separate approaches for candidate new sites versus existing sites. If there is insufficient basis to conclusively determine that a fault is not capable of surface displacement at an existing site, then a probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) is recommended to better characterize the hazard. This new recommendation has generated the need for the IAEA to provide its Member States with guidance on performing PFDHA, including its formulation and implementation. This article provides an overview of current PFDHA state‐of‐practice for nuclear installations that is consistent with the new IAEA safety standards. We also summarize progress in an ongoing international PFDHA benchmark project that will ultimately provide technical guidance to Member States for conducting site‐specific fault displacement hazard assessments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

Improved scaling relationships for seismic moment and average slip of strike-slip earthquakes incorporating fault slip rate, fault width and stress drop

We develop a self‐consistent scaling model relating magnitude M w to surface rupture length ( ⁠L E ⁠ ), surface displacement D E ⁠ , and rupture width W E ⁠ , for strike‐slip faults. Knowledge of the long‐term fault‐slip rate S F improves magnitude estimates. Data are collected for 55 ground‐rupturing strike‐slip earthquakes that have geological estimates of L E ⁠ , D E ⁠ , and S F⁠ , and geophysical estimates of W E ⁠ . We begin with the model of Anderson et al. (2017) , which uses a closed form equation for the seismic moment of a surface‐rupturing strike‐slip fault of arbitrary aspect ratio and given stress drop, Δτ C ⁠ . Using W E estimates does not improve M w estimates. However, measurements of D E plus the relationship between Δτ C and surface slip provide an alternate approach to study W E ⁠ . A grid of plausible stress drop and width pairs were used to predict displacement and earthquake magnitude. A likelihood function was computed from within the uncertainty ranges of the corresponding observed M w and D E values. After maximizing likelihoods over earthquakes in length bins, we found the most likely values of W E for constant stress drop; these depend on the rupture length. The best‐fitting model has the surprising form W E ∝logL E —a gentle increase in width with rupture length. Residuals from this model are convincingly correlated to the fault‐slip rate and also show a weak correlation with the crustal thickness. The resulting model thus supports a constant stress drop for ruptures of all lengths, consistent with teleseismic observation. The approach can be extended to test other observable factors that might improve the predictability of magnitude from a mapped fault for seismic hazard analyses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

A big problem for small earthquakes: Benchmarking routine magnitudes and conversion relationships with coda-envelope-derived Mw in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude ( ⁠ M w "> M w Mw ⁠ ) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally M w &lt; 4 "> M w < 4 Mw<4 ⁠ ) earthquakes has meant that magnitudes for these events remain plagued by a patchwork of inconsistent measurement scales. Because of this, magnitudes of small earthquakes and statistics derived from them can be biased. Furthermore, because small earthquakes are much more numerous than large ones, many applications, such as seismic hazard modeling, depend critically on analysis of events characterized by magnitudes other than M w "> M w Mw ⁠ . To assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small earthquakes from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Not surprisingly, we find significant differences among M L "> M L ML ⁠ , m b L g "> m b L g mbLg ⁠ , and M w "> M w Mw for M ∼2–4 earthquakes examined here. More troublingly, we find that relations designed to convert other magnitudes to M w "> M w Mw ⁠ , which are relied upon for important applications such as seismic hazard analysis, often increase rather than decrease this bias for our dataset. In our case study, we find that converted magnitudes can result in a systematic bias sometimes exceeding 0.5 magnitude units, a difference that typically corresponds to a factor of ∼3 in seismicity rate. Moreover, we find a correspondingly large bias in Gutenberg–Richter b ‐values, controlled primarily by inaccurate magnitude scaling in the conversion relationships. Although this study focuses on a relatively small geographic area, we can expect that similar issues exist with varying severity in other regions. Therefore, magnitudes of small earthquakes and their associated statistics, including seismicity rates and b ‐values, should be treated with caution.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2021

Refinements to the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generator, including a dynamically consistent slip‐rate function, applied to the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

The main objective of this study is to develop physics‐based constraints on the spatiotemporal variation of the slip‐rate function using a simplified dynamic rupture model. First, we performed dynamic rupture modeling of the 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake, to analyze the effects of depth‐dependent stress and material friction on slip rate. Then, we used our modeling results to guide refinements to the slip‐rate function that were implemented in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generation technique. The dynamic ruptures were computed on a surface‐rupturing, planar strike‐slip fault that includes a weak (negative to low‐stress‐drop) zone in the upper 4 km of the crust. Below the weak zone, we placed high‐stress‐drop patches designed to mirror the large‐slip areas seen in various rupture model inversions of the event. The locations of the high‐stress‐drop patches and the hypocenter were varied in multiple realizations to investigate how changing the dynamic conditions affected the resulting rupture kinematics, in particular, the slip rate. From these simulations, we observed a systematic change in the shape of the slip‐rate function from Kostrov type below the weak zone to a predominantly symmetric shape within the weak zone, along with a depth‐dependent reduction of peak slip rate. We generalized these shallow rupture features into a depth‐dependent parametric variation of the slip‐rate function and implemented it in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model generator. The performance of the updated kinematic approach was then verified in 0–4 Hz simulations of the M w 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, which showed that incorporating the depth‐dependent variation in the shape of the slip‐rate function improves the fit to the observed near‐fault ground motions in the 0.5–3 s period range.

California↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small-magnitude earthquakes

This study assesses existing intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small unspecified magnitude ( M ≤3.5) earthquakes at short hypocentral distances ( ⁠ D h ⁠ ) and explores such earthquakes’ contribution to the felt shaking hazard. In particular, we consider IPEs by Atkinson and Wald (2007) and Atkinson et al. (2014) , and evaluate their performance based on “Did You Feel It” (DYFI) reports and recorded peak ground velocities (PGVs) in the central United States. Both IPEs were developed based on DYFI reports in the central and eastern United States with moment magnitudes above M w 3.0. DYFI reports are often used as the ground truth when evaluating and developing IPEs, but they could be less reliable when there are limited responses for small‐magnitude earthquakes. We first compare the DYFI reports with intensities interpolated from recorded PGVs. Results suggest a minimal discrepancy between the two when the intensity is large enough to be felt (i.e., M >2 and D h < 15 km ⁠ ). We then compare intensities from 31,617 DYFI reports of 3049 earthquakes with the two IPEs. Results suggest that both the IPEs match well with observed intensities for 2.0< M <3.0 and D h < 10 km ⁠ , but the IPE by Atkinson et al. (2014) matches better for larger distances. We also observe that intensities from DYFI reports attenuate faster compared with the two IPEs, especially for distances greater than 10 km. We then group DYFI reports by inferred V S 30 as a proxy for site amplification effects. We observe that intensities at sites with V S 30 around 300 m/s are consistently higher than at sites with V S 30 around 700 m/s and are also closer to the two IPEs. Finally, we conduct hazard disaggregation for earthquakes at close distances ( ⁠ D h = 7.5 km ⁠ ) using the observed records. Results suggest that earthquakes with magnitudes below M 3.0 contribute more than 40% to the occurrence of felt shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗