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Occurrence of Pesticides in Ground Water of Wyoming, 1995-2006

Little existing information was available describing pesticide occurrence in ground water of Wyoming, so the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Department of Agriculture and the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality on behalf of the Wyoming Ground-water and Pesticides Strategy Committee, collected ground-water samples twice (during late summer/early fall and spring) from 296 wells during 1995-2006 to characterize pesticide occurrence. Sampling focused on the State's ground water that was mapped as the most vulnerable to pesticide contamination because of either inherent hydrogeologic sensitivity (for example, shallow water table or highly permeable aquifer materials) or a combination of sensitivity and associated land use. Because of variations in reporting limits among different compounds and for the same compound during this study, pesticide detections were recensored to two different assessment levels to facilitate qualitative and quantitative examination of pesticide detection frequencies - a common assessment level (CAL) of 0.07 microgram per liter and an assessment level that differed by compound, referred to herein as a compound-specific assessment level (CSAL). Because of severe data censoring (fewer than 50 percent of the data are greater than laboratory reporting limits), categorical statistical methods were used exclusively for quantitative comparisons of pesticide detection frequencies between seasons and among various natural and anthropogenic (human-related) characteristics. One or more pesticides were detected at concentrations greater than the CAL in water from about 23 percent of wells sampled in the fall and from about 22 percent of wells sampled in the spring. Mixtures of two or more pesticides occurred at concentrations greater than the CAL in about 9 percent of wells sampled in the fall and in about 10 percent of wells sampled in the spring. At least 74 percent of pesticides detected were classified as herbicides. Considering only detections using the CAL, triazine pesticides were detected much more frequently than all other pesticide classes, and the number of different pesticides classified as triazines was the largest of all classes. More pesticides were detected at concentrations greater than the CSALs in water from wells sampled in the fall (28 different pesticides) than in the spring (21 different pesticides). Many pesticides were detected infrequently as nearly one-half of pesticides detected in the fall and spring at concentrations greater than the CSALs were detected only in one well. Using the CSALs for pesticides analyzed for in 11 or more wells, only five pesticides (atrazine, prometon, tebuthiuron, picloram, and 3,4-dichloroaniline, listed in order of decreasing detection frequency) were each detected in water from more than 5 percent of sampled wells. Atrazine was the pesticide detected most frequently at concentrations greater than the CSAL. Concentrations of detected pesticides generally were small (less than 1 microgram per liter), although many infrequent detections at larger concentrations were noted. All detected pesticide concentrations were smaller than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) drinking-water standards or applicable health advisories. Most concentrations were at least an order of magnitude smaller; however, many pesticides did not have standards or advisories. The largest percentage of pesticide detections and the largest number of different pesticides detected were in samples from wells located in the Bighorn Basin and High Plains/ Casper Arch geographic areas of north-central and southeastern Wyoming. Prometon was the only pesticide detected in all eight geographic areas of the State. Pesticides were detected much more frequently in samples from wells located in predominantly urban areas than in samples from wells located in predominantly agricultural or mixed areas. Pesticides were detected distinctly less often in sa

Scientific Investigations Report

A comparison of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Provisional Aquatic Reflectance science product, Sentinel–2B, and WorldView–3 imagery for empirical satellite-derived bathymetry, Unalakleet, Alaska

Satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) based upon an empirical band ratio method is a cost-effective means for mapping nearshore bathymetry in coastal areas vulnerable to natural hazards. This is particularly important for the low-lying coastal community of Unalakleet, Alaska, that has been negatively affected not only by flooding, storm surge, and historically strong storms but also by high erosion rates stemming from the Unalakleet River and Norton Sound. The purpose of this study was to assess the viability of different satellite imagery, including Landsat 8 (L8) Operational Land Imager, Sentinel–2B, WorldView–3, and L8 Provisional Aquatic Reflectance science product, for deriving SDB for Unalakleet, Alaska. Correlations were performed between satellite imagery band ratios and topobathymetric (topobathy) light detection and ranging (lidar) and in situ single-beam sound navigation and ranging (sonar). The satellite imagery correlations with topobathy lidar did not yield as high of a linear relation with water depths as the satellite imagery correlations with the single-beam sonar. An extinction depth, where light no longer attenuates through the water column, was not identified because of the shallow depths within the topobathy lidar and single-beam sonar datasets. Although some single-beam soundings measured at 7 meters deep, the correlations with the SDB band ratios did not yield a strong linear relation. Satellite imagery band ratio correlations with Electronic Navigational Chart soundings did not yield a strong linear relation because of older source data. Less than optimal linear regressions were most likely due to the geography of Unalakleet, Alaska, a low-lying coastal community subject to high erosion rates from surrounding waters. This study is one of the first attempts to compare different satellite imagery band ratio correlations with topobathy lidar and in situ sonar to assess the viability for nearshore SDB for coastal Unalakleet, Alaska.

Alaska

Estimation of low-flow duration discharges in Massachusetts

Equations for estimating the 95-, 98-, and 99-percent duration discharges for streams in Massachusetts with natural flow conditions were developed by use of weighted-least-squares regression analyses. Record extension methods were used to estimate the low-flow statistics for sites used in the regression analyses that were lacking complete record during the base period of October 1, 1962 through September 30, 1987. Basin characteristics used as independent variables in the regression analyses were measured by use of a computerized geographic information system. The equations were used to estimate the duration discharges for 72 selected sites in eastern Massachusetts.

Water Supply Paper

Calibrating environmental DNA metabarcoding to conventional surveys for measuring fish species richness

The ability to properly identify species present in a landscape is foundational to ecology and essential for natural resource management and conservation. However, many species are often unaccounted for due to ineffective direct capture and visual surveys, especially in aquatic environments. Environmental DNA metabarcoding is an approach that overcomes low detection probabilities and should consequently enhance estimates of biodiversity and its proxy, species richness. Here, we synthesize 37 studies in natural aquatic systems to compare species richness estimates for bony fish between eDNA metabarcoding and conventional methods, such as nets, visual census, and electrofishing. In freshwater systems with fewer than 100 species, we found eDNA metabarcoding detected more species than conventional methods. Using multiple genetic markers further increased species richness estimates with eDNA metabarcoding. For more diverse freshwater systems and across marine systems, eDNA metabarcoding reported similar values of species richness to conventional methods; however, more studies are needed in these environments to better evaluate relative performance. In systems with greater biodiversity, eDNA metabarcoding will require more populated reference databases, increased sampling effort, and multi-marker assays to ensure robust species richness estimates to further validate the approach. eDNA metabarcoding is reliable and provides a path for broader biodiversity assessments that can outperform conventional methods for estimating species richness.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

The Haleakala Argentine ant project: A synthesis of past research and prospects for the future

1. The Haleakala Argentine Ant Project is an ongoing effort to study the ecology of the invasive Argentine ant in the park, and if possible to develop a strategy to control this destructive species. 2. Past research has demonstrated that the Argentine ant causes very significant impacts on native arthropods where it invades, threatening a large portion of the park’s biodiversity in subalpine shrubland and alpine aeolian ecosystems. 3. Patterns of spread over the past 30+ years indicate that the invasion process is influenced to a substantial degree by abiotic factors such as elevation, rainfall and temperature, and that the ant has not reached its potential range. Predictions of total range in the park suggest that it has only invaded a small fraction of available suitable habitat, confirming that this species is one of most serious threats to the park’s natural resources. 4. Numerous experiments have been conducted since 1994 in an attempt to develop a method for eradicating the Argentine ant at Haleakala using pesticidal ant baits. Thirty baits have been screened for attractiveness to ants in the park, and ten of these were tested for effectiveness of control in field plots. While some of these baits have been very effective in reducing numbers of ants, none has been able to eliminate all nests in experimental plots. 5. Research into a secondary management goal of ant population containment was initiated in 1996. By treating only expanding margins of the park’s two ant populations with an ant pesticide, rates of outward spread were substantially reduced in some areas. While this strategy was implemented from 1997 to 2004, it was ultimately discontinued after 2004 because of the difficulty and insufficient effectiveness of the technique. 6. In order to achieve the types of results necessary for eradication, the project would probably need to explore the possibility of developing a specialized bait, rather than relying on a commercially produced bait. An alternative would be to pursue approval to use Xstinguish bait, a commercial bait manufactured in New Zealand and not registered for use in the US, which has yielded good results against Argentine ants. Either route would involve significant regulatory hurdles. Because the baits ultimately used would likely be liquid or paste in form, there would also be major logistical challenges in devising methods to successfully apply the baits across the two large ant populations at Haleakala.

Technical Report

Preliminary depth to basement modeling at Salton Sea, California

The San Andreas Fault – Imperial Fault (SAF-IF) transtensional step-over zone along the southern margin of the Salton Sea hosts substantial geothermal production and lithium brine resources. Recent volcanism at the Salton Buttes and active seismicity along the SAFIF fault system highlight active tectonic and magmatic processes that pose natural hazards and may impact energy and mineral production. Characterizing the subsurface architecture and extent of concealed alteration associated with this tectono-magmatic system enhances understanding of these active processes, associated hazards, and resources. We have compiled a gravity database, consisting of new and re-processed existing data, from which we have constructed a new isostatic residual gravity anomaly map of the Salton trough. We have used this new gravity dataset together with a compilation of publicly available borehole data to develop new depth to basement inversion models for the region. These depth to basement models help to constrain basin geometries, inform alteration mapping, and reveal variations in basement rocks. Due to the concealed nature of the complex tectonic framework at the Salton trough, it is necessary to utilize geophysical methods for subsurface characterization. These new depth to basement models are a first step toward constructing 2D and 3D geophysical and geologic models of the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea geothermal area. This analysis complements other geophysical initiatives, including magnetotelluric (MT) modeling (Tokmakoff et al., 2024), magnetic mapping (Glen and Earney, 2023, 2024) and potential field modeling, and seismic studies focused on hazard and resource investigations in the Imperial Valley.

California

Modeling pattern in collections of parameters

Wildlife management is increasingly guided by analyses of large and complex datasets. The description of such datasets often requires a large number of parameters, among which certain patterns might be discernible. For example, one may consider a long-term study producing estimates of annual survival rates; of interest is the question whether these rates have declined through time. Several statistical methods exist for examining pattern in collections of parameters. Here, I argue for the superiority of 'random effects models' in which parameters are regarded as random variables, with distributions governed by 'hyperparameters' describing the patterns of interest. Unfortunately, implementation of random effects models is sometimes difficult. Ultrastructural models, in which the postulated pattern is built into the parameter structure of the original data analysis, are approximations to random effects models. However, this approximation is not completely satisfactory: failure to account for natural variation among parameters can lead to overstatement of the evidence for pattern among parameters. I describe quasi-likelihood methods that can be used to improve the approximation of random effects models by ultrastructural models.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Changes in porosity and organic matter phase distribution monitored by NMR relaxometry following hydrous pyrolysis under uniaxial confinement

Artificial maturation methods are used to induce changes in source rock thermal maturity without the uncertainties that arise when comparing natural samples from a particular basin that often represent different levels of maturation and different lithofacies. A novel uniaxial confinement clamp was used on Woodford Shale cores in hydrous pyrolysis experiments to limit sample expansion by simulating the effect of overburden present during thermal maturation in natural systems. These samples were then subjected to X-ray computed tomography (X-CT) imaging and low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (LF-NMR) relaxometry measurements. LF-NMR relaxometry is a noninvasive technique commonly used to measure porosity and pore-size distributions in fluid-filled porous media, but may also measure hydrogen present in hydrogen-bearing organic solids. Standard T 1 and T 2 relaxation distributions were determined and two dimensional T 1 -T 2 correlation measurements were performed on the Woodford Shale cores. The T 1 -T 2 correlations facilitate resolution of organic phases in the system. The changes observed in NMR-relaxation times correspond to bitumen and lighter hydrocarbon production that occur as source rock organic matter matures. The LF-NMR porosities of the core samples at maximum oil generation are significantly higher than porosities measured by other methods. This discrepancy likely arises from the measurement of highly viscous organic constituents in addition to fluid-filled porosity. An unconfined sample showed shorter relaxation times and lower porosity. This difference is attributed to the lack of fractures observed in the unconfined sample by X-CT.

Conference Paper

Retention of lead during oxidative ashing of selected naturally occurring carbonaceous substances

The amount of lead retained in the ash of lead-bearing carbonaceous material is essentially independent of the method of ashing. Samples containing lead in the range of 0.00X to 0.X per cent were ashed by ignition in a high-oxygen atmosphere and were also wet-ashed. The lead in the ash was determined colorimetrically. Results were the same by both methods, but the time required is 3 to 10 times less for the dry-ashing method.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Bathymetric survey of the nearshore from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass, Louisiana: Methods and data report

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the University of New Orleans (UNO) and the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (LDNR), conducted a high-resolution, single-beam bathymetric survey along the Louisiana southern coastal zone from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass. The survey consisted of 483 line kilometers of data acquired in July and August of 2005. This report outlines the methodology and provides the data from the survey. Analysis of the data and comparison to a similar bathymetric survey completed in 1989 show significant loss of seafloor and shoreline retreat, which is consistent with previously published estimates of shoreline change in the study area.

Louisiana

Transport and attenuation of carboxylate-modified latex microspheres in fractured rock laboratory and field tracer tests

Understanding colloid transport in ground water is essential to assessing the migration of colloid‐size contaminants, the facilitation of dissolved contaminant transport by colloids, in situ bioremediation, and the health risks of pathogen contamination in drinking water wells. Much has been learned through laboratory and field‐scale colloid tracer tests, but progress has been hampered by a lack of consistent tracer testing methodology at different scales and fluid velocities. This paper presents laboratory and field tracer tests in fractured rock that use the same type of colloid tracer over an almost three orders‐of‐magnitude range in scale and fluid velocity. Fluorescently‐dyed carboxylate‐modified latex (CML) microspheres (0.19 to 0.98 μm diameter) were used as tracers in (1) a naturally fractured tuff sample, (2) a large block of naturally fractured granite, (3) a fractured granite field site, and (4) another fractured granite/schist field site. In all cases, the mean transport time of the microspheres was shorter than the solutes, regardless of detection limit. In all but the smallest scale test, only a fraction of the injected microsphere mass was recovered, with the smaller microspheres being recovered to a greater extent than the larger microspheres. Using existing theory, we hypothesize that the observed microsphere early arrival was due to volume exclusion and attenuation was due to aggregation and/or settling during transport. In most tests, microspheres were detected using flow cytometry, which proved to be an excellent method of analysis. CML microspheres appear to be useful tracers for fractured rock in forced gradient and short‐term natural gradient tests, but longer residence times may result in small microsphere recoveries.

Ground Water

Improving the design of amphibian surveys using soil data: A case study in two wilderness areas

Amphibian populations are known, or thought to be, declining worldwide. Although protected natural areas may act as reservoirs of biological integrity and serve as benchmarks for comparison with unprotected areas, they are not immune from population declines and extinctions and should be monitored. Unfortunately, identifying survey sites and performing long-term fieldwork within such (often remote) areas involves a special set of problems. We used the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database to identify, a priori, potential habitat for aquatic-breeding amphibians on North and South Manitou Islands, Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan, and compared the results to those obtained using National Wetland Inventory (NWI) data. The SSURGO approach identified more target sites for surveys than the NWI approach, and it identified more small and ephemeral wetlands. Field surveys used a combination of daytime call surveys, night-time call surveys, and perimeter surveys. We found that sites that would not have been identified with NWI data often contained amphibians and, in one case, contained wetland-breeding species that would not have been found using NWI data. Our technique allows for easy a priori identification of numerous survey sites that might not be identified using other sources of spatial information. We recognize, however, that the most effective site identification and survey techniques will likely use a combination of methods in addition to those described here.

Natural Areas Journal

Estimating aboveground biomass for broadleaf woody plants and young conifers in Sierra Nevada, California forests

Quantification of biomass is fundamental to a wide range of research and natural resource management goals. An accurate estimation of plant biomass is essential to predict potential fire behavior, calculate carbon sequestration for global climate change research, assess critical wildlife habitat, and so forth. Reliable allometric equations from simple field measurements are necessary for efficient evaluation of plant biomass. However, allometric equations are not available for many common woody plant taxa in the Sierra Nevada. In this report, we present more than 200 regression equations for the Sierra Nevada western slope that relate crown diameter, plant height, crown volume, stem diameter, and both crown diameter and height to the dry weight of foliage, branches, and entire aboveground biomass. Destructive sampling methods resulted in regression equations that accurately predict biomass from one or two simple, nondestructive field measurements. The tables presented here will allow researchers and natural resource managers to easily choose the best equations to fit their biomass assessment needs.

California

Using acoustic Doppler velocity meters to estimate suspended sediment along the lower Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers

Lake Pepin is the largest naturally formed lake on the Mississippi River and has complex management needs to satisfy economic, environmental, and cultural demands. Lake Pepin is filling in with sediment at a rapid rate compared to conditions before settlement by European immigrants and intense agricultural cultivation. Accordingly, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has developed aggressive plans to prioritize sediment sources, understand transport mechanisms, and implement large-scale strategies to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. The Minnesota River is the primary sediment source to Lake Pepin, and reductions in sediment loading from the Minnesota River are needed to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. Current loading estimates were calculated from grab sampling and total suspended solids laboratory methods that greatly underestimate the actual concentrations in the rivers when compared to U.S. Geological Survey width and depth integrated sampling and laboratory methods for determining suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, with funding from the Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, collected SSCs and acoustic backscatter data from acoustic Doppler velocity meters over a 2-year period at nine sites. The purpose of the study was to improve understanding of sediment-transport processes and increase accuracy of estimating SSCs and suspended-sediment loads for the lower Minnesota River and the Mississippi River compared to traditional measures. The study results indicated that acoustic backscatter worked well in estimating SSCs at sites not regulated by locks, dams, and lakes. The results also confirmed previous studies that determined most of the suspended-sediment loading into the Mississippi River is from the Minnesota River and the largest sediment sink is Lake Pepin. Suspended-sediment loading from site to site and year to year was often variable when compared to streamflow, which has been traditionally used to estimate SSC. As a result, this study demonstrates the value in having high temporal and spatial resolution of continuous sediment monitoring from acoustic devices to help manage the sources of sediment into Lake Pepin.

Minnesota River, Mississippi River

Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Mining in the United States, 2005

The mining water-use category includes groundwater and surface water that is withdrawn and used for nonfuels and fuels mining. Nonfuels mining includes the extraction of ores, stone, sand, and gravel. Fuels mining includes the extraction of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Water is used for mineral extraction, quarrying, milling, and other operations directly associated with mining activities. For petroleum and natural gas extraction, water often is injected for secondary oil or gas recovery. Estimates of water withdrawals for mining are needed for water planning and management. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh and saline groundwater and surface water for mining during 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fresh and saline groundwater and surface-water withdrawals during 2005 for nonfuels- and coal-mining operations in each county or county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were estimated. Fresh and saline groundwater withdrawals for oil and gas operations in counties of six states also were estimated. Water withdrawals for nonfuels and coal mining were estimated by using mine-production data and water-use coefficients. Production data for nonfuels mining included the mine location and weight (in metric tons) of crude ore, rock, or mineral produced at each mine in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during 2004. Production data for coal mining included the weight, in metric tons, of coal produced in each county or county equivalent during 2004. Water-use coefficients for mined commodities were compiled from various sources including published reports and written communications from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-use Information Program (NWUIP) personnel in several states. Water withdrawals for oil and gas extraction were estimated for six States including California, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming, by using data from State agencies that regulate oil and gas extraction. Total water withdrawals for mining in a county were estimated by summing estimated water withdrawals for nonfuels mining, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction. The results of this study were distributed to NWUIP personnel in each State during 2007. NWUIP personnel were required to submit estimated withdrawals for numerous categories of use in their States to a national compilation team for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. NWUIP personnel had the option of submitting the estimates determined by using the methods described in this report, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the methods described in this report may not be included in the national report; therefore the estimates are not presented herein in order to avoid potential inconsistencies with the national report. Water-use coefficients for specific minerals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of confidential production data provided by mining operations to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scientific Investigations Report

A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Hydrogeology Journal

How to overcome inter-electrode variability and instability to quantify dissolved oxygen, Fe(II), mn(II), and S(−II) in undisturbed soils and sediments using voltammetry

Background - Although uniquely capable of measuring multiple redox constituents nearly simultaneously with no or minimal sample pretreatment, voltammetry is currently underutilized in characterizing redox conditions in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Investigation of undisturbed media such as pore water requires a solid-state electrode, and such electrodes can be difficult to fabricate reproducibly. An approach to determine the concentrations of electroactive constituents using indirectly calibrated electrodes has been developed, but the protocol for and accuracy of this approach—the pilot ion method—has not been documented in detail. Results - A detailed procedure for testing electrode quality is provided, and the application and limitations of the pilot ion method have been documented. To quantify Fe(II) and Mn(II), subtraction of non-linear baseline functions from voltammetric signals produced better calibration curves than did linear baselines, enabled lower detection limits and reliable deconvolution of overlapping signals, and was successfully applied to sediment pore water signals. We observed that electrode sensitivities often vary by tens of percent, and that the sensitivity declines over time. The ratio of calibration slopes of Mn(II) to Fe(II) varied by no more than 11% from one Hg/Au electrode to another and Fe(II) concentrations predicted by the Mn(II) pilot ion were, on average, 13% different from their actual values. However, concentration predictions by the pilot ion method were worse for less than 15 μM Fe(II) (46% different on average). The ratio of calibration slopes of Mn(II) to S(−II) varied by almost 20% from one Hg/Au electrode to another, and S(−II) predicted concentrations were as much as 58% different from their actual values. These predictions of Fe(II) and S(−II) concentrations indicate that the accuracy of the pilot ion method depends on how independent calibration slope ratios are from the electrode used. At medium-to-high concentration for the ocean, naturally derived dissolved organic carbon did not significantly affect the baseline-corrected electrode response of Mn(II) and Fe(II), but did significantly affect the response of S(−II). Conclusions - Despite their intrinsic variability, Hg/Au electrodes fabricated by hand can be used to quantify O2, S(−II), Fe(II), and Mn(II) without calibrating every electrode for every constituent of interest. The pilot ion method can achieve accuracies to within 20% or less, provided that the underlying principle—the independence of slope ratios—is demonstrated for all voltammetric techniques used, and effects of the physicochemical properties of the system on voltammetric signals are addressed through baseline subtraction.

Geochemical Transactions

Preventing overfitting when using tree-based methods for mapping hydrothermal favorability

Ensemble tree-based algorithms are robust tools for estimating sparsely distributed resources with non-linear dependencies (e.g., hydrothermal systems). These algorithms naturally accommodate the threshold conditions necessary to enable and support hydrothermal systems (e.g., having sufficient heat and permeability) and are simpler than many other non-linear machine learning strategies (e.g., artificial neural networks), which is an advantage when working with few labeled examples from which to learn. In previous work, we used eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to produce regional prediction and uncertainty maps of hydrothermal favorability; however, recent studies suggest that, even when properly applied, XGBoost has some risk of overfitting when there are few labeled examples from which to learn. To evaluate overfitting when constructing hydrothermal favorability maps with tree-based methods, we compare XGBoost with Extremely Randomized Trees (ExtraTrees), another ensemble tree-based algorithm that has the potential to underfit when using few labeled examples. We hold all other modeling parameters constant, resulting in two contrasting favorability maps of conventional geothermal resources for the Great Basin. Our results indicate that ExtraTrees demonstrably reduces overfitting compared with XGBoost. After considering overall performance, we conclude that ExtraTrees provides a more suitable modeling approach than XGBoost for the purposes of conventional hydrothermal resource assessments.

Conference Paper