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Simulation of streamflow and estimation of streamflow constituent loads in the San Antonio River watershed, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2001

The U.S. Geological Survey developed watershed models (Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN) to simulate streamflow and estimate streamflow constituent loads from five basins that compose the San Antonio River watershed in Bexar County, Texas. Rainfall and streamflow data collected during 1997–2001 were used to calibrate and test the model. The model was configured so that runoff from various land uses and discharges from other sources (such as wastewater recycling facilities) could be accounted for to indicate sources of streamflow. Simulated streamflow volumes were used with land-use-specific, water-quality data to compute streamflow loads of selected constituents from the various streamflow sources. Model simulations for 1997–2001 indicate that inflow from the upper Medina River (originating outside Bexar County) represents about 22 percent of total streamflow. Recycled wastewater discharges account for about 20 percent and base flow (ground-water inflow to streams) about 18 percent. Storm runoff from various land uses represents about 33 percent. Estimates of sources of streamflow constituent loads indicate recycled wastewater as the largest source of dissolved solids and nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen (about 38 and 66 percent, respectively, of the total loads) during 1997–2001. Stormwater runoff from urban land produced about 49 percent of the 1997–2001 total suspended solids load. Stormwater runoff from residential and commercial land (about 23 percent of the land area) produced about 70 percent of the total lead streamflow load during 1997–2001.

Texas

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Antlers aquifer in southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas

The Antlers Sandstone of Early Cretaceous age occurs in all or parts of Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Johnston, Love, Marshall, McCurtain, and Pushmataha Counties, a 4,400-square-mile area in southeastern Oklahoma parallel to the Red River. The sandstone comprising the Antlers aquifer is exposed in the northern one-third of the area, and ground water in the outcrop area is unconfined. Younger Cretaceous rocks overlie the Antlers in the southern two thirds of the study area where the aquifer is confined. The Antlers extends in the subsurface south into Texas where it underlies all or parts of Bowie, Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, and Red River Counties. An area of approximately 5,400 square miles in Texas is included in the study. The Antlers Sandstone consists of sand, clay, conglomerate, and limestone deposited on an erosional surface of Paleozoic rocks. Saturated thickness in the Antlers ranges from 0 feet at the updip limit to probably more than 2,000 feet, 25 to 30 miles south of the Red River. Simulated recharge to the Antlers based on model calibration ranges from 0.32 to about 0.96 inch per year. Base flow increases where streams cross the Antlers outcrop, indicating that the aquifer supplies much of the base flow. Pumpage rates for 1980 in excess of 35 million gallons per year per grid cell for public supply, irrigation, and industrial uses total 872 million gallons in the Oklahoma part of the Antlers and 5,228 million gallons in the Texas part of the Antlers. Ground-water flow in the Antlers aquifer was simulated using one active layer in a three-dimensional finite-difference mathematical model. Simulated aquifer hydraulic conductivity values range from 0.87 to 3.75 feet per day. A vertical hydraulic conductivity of 1.5x10-4 foot per day was specified for the younger confining unit at the start of the simulation. An average storage coefficient of 0.0005 was specified for the confined part of the aquifer; a specific yield of 0.17 was specified for the unconfined part. Because pumping from the Antlers is minimal, calibration under transient conditions was not possible. Consequently, the head changes resulting from projection simulations in this study are estimates only. Volumetric results of the six projection simulations from the years 1990 to 2040 indicate that the decrease in the volume of ground water in storage due to pumping approximately 9,700,000 acre-feet from 1970 to 2040 is less than 0.1 percent.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Ground-water resources of the glacial outwash along the White River, Johnson and Morgan counties, Indiana

An 88-square-mile segment of the White River valley contains an unconfined sand and gravel aquifer ranging-from a featheredge zero, to 120 feet in saturated thickness. Hydraulic conductivity is 340 feet per day, and transmissivity is as much as 35,000 square feet per day. The aquifer, recharged primarily by precipitation, gains same recharge through interbedded till and outwash boundaries and through losing streams. A two-dimensional digital model was used to simulate the steady-state ground-water flow system. Sensitivity analyses tested the reaction of the model to adjustments in hydraulic conductivity, steam bed leakance, and recharge. Simulated pumpage of 20-, 66-, and 122-million gallons per day reduced streamflow by 5, 15, and 30% , respectively. A real drawdown did not exceed 25 feet. Ground water was a calcium bicarbonate type having a median pH of 7.1, a mean alkalinity of 240 milligrams per liter, a mean hardness of 280 milligrams per liter, a mean dissolved oxygen concentration of 2.2 milligrams per liter, a mean redox potential of +347 millivolts, and a mean dissolved-solids concentration of 366 milligrams per liter. Iron and manganese concentrations exceeded National Drinking Water Regulations in 15 and 49% of the analyses, respectively. Temperature and concentration of dissolved organic carbon varied seasonally. Dissolved carbon and manganese varied with seasonally. Dissolved carbon and manganese varied with differing boundary material, till and bedrock. (USGS)

Indiana

Regression Analysis of Stage Variability for West-Central Florida Lakes

The variability in a lake's stage depends upon many factors, including surface-water flows, meteorological conditions, and hydrogeologic characteristics near the lake. An understanding of the factors controlling lake-stage variability for a population of lakes may be helpful to water managers who set regulatory levels for lakes. The goal of this study is to determine whether lake-stage variability can be predicted using multiple linear regression and readily available lake and basin characteristics defined for each lake. Regressions were evaluated for a recent 10-year period (1996-2005) and for a historical 10-year period (1954-63). Ground-water pumping is considered to have affected stage at many of the 98 lakes included in the recent period analysis, and not to have affected stage at the 20 lakes included in the historical period analysis. For the recent period, regression models had coefficients of determination (R2) values ranging from 0.60 to 0.74, and up to five explanatory variables. Standard errors ranged from 21 to 37 percent of the average stage variability. Net leakage was the most important explanatory variable in regressions describing the full range and low range in stage variability for the recent period. The most important explanatory variable in the model predicting the high range in stage variability was the height over median lake stage at which surface-water outflow would occur. Other explanatory variables in final regression models for the recent period included the range in annual rainfall for the period and several variables related to local and regional hydrogeology: (1) ground-water pumping within 1 mile of each lake, (2) the amount of ground-water inflow (by category), (3) the head gradient between the lake and the Upper Floridan aquifer, and (4) the thickness of the intermediate confining unit. Many of the variables in final regression models are related to hydrogeologic characteristics, underscoring the importance of ground-water exchange in controlling the stage of karst lakes in Florida. Regression equations were used to predict lake-stage variability for the recent period for 12 additional lakes, and the median difference between predicted and observed values ranged from 11 to 23 percent. Coefficients of determination for the historical period were considerably lower (maximum R2 of 0.28) than for the recent period. Reasons for these low R2 values are probably related to the small number of lakes (20) with stage data for an equivalent time period that were unaffected by ground-water pumping, the similarity of many of the lake types (large surface-water drainage lakes), and the greater uncertainty in defining historical basin characteristics. The lack of lake-stage data unaffected by ground-water pumping and the poor regression results obtained for that group of lakes limit the ability to predict natural lake-stage variability using this method in west-central Florida.

Scientific Investigations Report

Surface-water/ground-water interaction along reaches of the Snake River and Henrys Fork, Idaho

Declining water levels in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer and decreases in spring discharges from the aquifer to the Snake River have spurred studies to improve understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction on the plain. This study was done to estimate streamflow gains and losses along specific reaches of the Snake River and Henrys Fork and to compare changes in gain and loss estimates to changes in ground-water levels over time. Data collected during this study will be used to enhance the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to refine computer models of ground-water flow and surface-water/ground-water interactions. Estimates of streamflow gains and losses along specific subreaches of the Snake River and Henrys Fork, based on the results of five seepage studies completed during 2001?02, varied greatly across the study area, ranging from a loss estimate of 606 ft3/s in a subreach of the upper Snake River near Heise to a gain estimate of 3,450 ft3/s in a subreach of the Snake River that includes Thousand Springs. Some variations over time also were apparent in specific subreaches. Surface spring flow accounted for much of the inflow to subreaches having large gain estimates. Several subreaches alternately gained and lost streamflow during the study. Changes in estimates of streamflow gains and losses along some of the subreaches were compared with changes in water levels, measured at three different times during 2001?02, in adjacent wells. In some instances, a strong relation between changes in estimates of gains or losses and changes in ground-water levels was apparent.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrologic feasibility of water-supply-development alternatives in Cape May County, New Jersey

Increasing public-supply withdrawals in Cape May County, New Jersey associated with increasing residential and seasonal tourist populations have led to regionally lowered ground-water levels, a reversal of ground-water flow directions toward onshore, and landward encroachment of saltwater in the shallow aquifer system. The three aquifers composing the shallow system are, in order of increasing depth, the unconfined Holly Beach water-bearing zone and the confined estuarine sand and Cohansey aquifers. The changes to the ground-water system have been greatest in the confined aquifers near the three major well fields on the Cape May peninsula. Formerly productive water-supply wells have been abandoned because of saltwater contamination. Concern about anthropogenic contamination has prevented shifting of withdrawals to the unconfined aquifer. Surface- water sources have also been little used. Further development on the peninsula involving increased water demand will exacerbate the current saltwater-encroachment problems. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility of possible water-supply-development alternatives by use of predictive ground-water flow simulations. The alternatives involve (1) injection of tertiary- treated wastewater to replenish aquifer storage and create a hydraulic barrier to saltwater encroachment, (2) withdrawal of brackish water in order to create a hydraulic barrier, (3) conjunctive use of ground water and surface water, enabling the reduction of ground-water withdrawals, and (4) redistribution of withdrawals inland to the unconfined aquifer. Results of these simulations can potentially be used in the design of a water-supply-development strategy that preserves supply and a monitoring program that ensures early warning of saltwater encroachment, thereby allowing sufficient time for development of an alternative supply. The water-supply- development alternatives were evaluated by comparison of results of predictive simulations made with a previously calibrated ground-water flow model of the shallow aquifer system. The quasi-three-dimensional sharp-interface model was calibrated to 1988 annual average hydrologic conditions. The planning period for the predictive simulations is 1989-2049. For the planning period, total public-supply withdrawals were increased 100 percent over average 1983-88 withdrawals. Results of a baseline simulation involving only the increased withdrawals were compared to each of the simulated alternatives, which also include the withdrawals. Hydraulic heads, saltwater- freshwater interface movement, and ground-water flows were compared. Simulation results indicate that the barrier-injection or barrier-withdrawal scheme could be useful in managing the water supply for a specific location. The conjunctive- use scheme would provide a marginal regional hydrologic benefit. Redistribution of withdrawals appears to be the only regional alternative that would result in recovery of ground-water levels and would substantially slow saltwater encroachment; however, anthropogenic land-surface contamination of the unconfined aquifer would have to be considered if the redistribution alternative is acted upon.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Water budgets, water quality, and analysis of nutrient loading of the Winter Park Chain of Lakes, central Florida, 1989-92, with a section on littoral vegetation

The Winter Park chain of lakes (Lakes Maitland, Virginia, Osceola, and Mizell) has a combined area of about 900 acres, an immediate drainage area of about 3,100 acres, and mean depths ranging from 11 to 15 feet. The lakes are an important recreational resource for the surrounding communities, but there is concern about the possible effects of stormwater runoff and seepage of nutrient-enriched ground water on the quality of water in the lakes. The lakes receive water from several sources: rainfall on lake surfaces, inflow from other surface-water bodies, stormflow that enters the lakes through storm drains or by direct runoff from land adjacent to the lakes, and ground-water seepage. Water leaves the lakes by evaporation, surface outflow, and ground-water outflow. Of the three, only surface outflow can be measured directly. Rainfall, surface inflow and outflow, and lake-stage data were collected from October 1, 1989, to September 30, 1992. Stormflow, evaporation and ground-water inflow and outflow were estimated for the 3 years of the study. Ground-water outflow was calculated by evaluating the rate of lake-stage decline during dry periods. Estimated ground-water outflow was compared to downward leakage rates estimated by ground-water flow models. Lateral ground-water inflow from surficial sediments was calculated as the residual of the flow budget. Flow budgets were calculated for the 3 years of the study. In water year 1992 (a year with about average rainfall), inflow consisted of rainfall, 48 inches; stormflow, 15 inches; surface inflow, 67 inches; and ground water, 40 inches. The calculated outflows were evaporation, 47 inches; surface outflow, 90 inches; and ground water, 33 inches. Water-quality data also were used to calculate nutrient budgets for the lakes. Bimonthly water samples were collected from the lakes and at surface inflow and outflow sites, and were analyzed for physical characteristics, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, major ions, the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus, and chlorophyll (collected at lake sites only). Specific conductance ranged from about 190 to 230 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius in Lakes Maitland, Virginia and Osceola and from about 226 to 260 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius in Lake Mizell. The median concentrations of total ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen in all the lakes ranged from 0.79 to 0.99 milligrams per liter. Median total phosphorus concentrations ranged from less than 0.02 to 0.20 milligrams per liter. Stormwater samples were collected for 17 storms at one storm-drain site and 16 storms at another storm-drain site on Lake Osceola. Median total nitrogen concentrations at the sites were 2.23 and 3.06 milligrams per liter and median total phosphorus concentrations were 0.34 and 0.40 milligrams per liter. The water quality in the Winter Park lakes generally is fair to good, based on a trophic-state index used by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection for assessing the tropic state of Florida lakes. This index was determined from median total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll-a concentrations, and median Secchi-disk transparency for all lakes for the period September 1989 to June 1992. Based on a one-time sampling of 20 sites around the lakes, surficial ground-water quality is highly variable. Nutrient concentrations were highly variable and could not be correlated to the proximity of septic tanks. Fertilizer probably is the primary source of nutrients in the surficial ground water. Nutrient budgets were calculated for the lakes for the 3 years of the study. The most variable source of nutrient loading to the lakes is stormwater. Nutrient-loading modeling indicates that reduction of nutrients in stormflow probably would improve lake-water quality. However, even with complete removal of nitrogen and phosphorus from stormwater, the lakes might still be mesotrophic with respect to both nutrients during periods of below average rainfall because of the input from the other sources of inflow to the lakes. Littoral vegetation in the lakes was surveyed in March 1992. The length of shoreline containing vegetation was 44 percent in Lake Maitland, 62 percent in Lake Virginia, 46 percent in Lake Osceola, and 76 percent in Lake Mizell. The types of vegetation present generally were similar for all four lakes.

Florida

Ground-water flow in the surficial aquifer system and potential movement of contaminants from selected waste-disposal sites at Naval Station Mayport, Florida

Ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport near Jacksonville, Florida, was simulated with a two-layer finite-difference model as part of an investigation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model was calibrated to 229 water-level measurements from 181 wells during three synoptic surveys (July 17, 1995; July 31, 1996; and October 24, 1996). A quantifiable understanding of ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer was needed to evaluate remedial-action alternatives under consideration by the Naval Station Mayport to control the possible movement of contaminants from sites on the station. Multi-well aquifer tests, single-well tests, and slug tests were conducted to estimate the hydraulic properties of the surficial aquifer system, which was divided into three geohydrologic units�an S-zone and an I-zone separated by a marsh-muck confining unit. The recharge rate was estimated to range from 4 to 15 inches per year (95 percent confidence limits), based on a chloride-ratio method. Most of the simulations following model calibration were based on a recharge rate of 8 inches per year to unirrigated pervious areas. The advective displacement of saline pore water during the last 200 years was simulated using a particle-tracking routine, MODPATH, applied to calibrated steady-state and transient models of the Mayport peninsula. The surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport has been modified greatly by natural and anthropogenic forces so that the freshwater flow system is expanding and saltwater is being flushed from the system. A new MODFLOW package (VAR1) was written to simulate the temporal variation of hydraulic properties caused by construction activities at Naval Station Mayport. The transiently simulated saltwater distribution after 200 years of displacement described the chloride distribution in the I-zone (determined from measurements made during 1993 and 1996) better than the steady-state simulation. The advective movement of contaminants from selected sites within the solid waste management units to discharge points was simulated using MODPATH. Most of the particles were discharged to the nearest surface-water feature after traveling less than 1,000 feet in the ground-water system. Most areas within 1,000 feet of a surface-water feature or storm sewer had traveltimes of less than 50 years, based on an effective porosity of 40 percent. Contributing areas, traveltimes, and pathlines were identified for 224 wells at Naval Station Mayport under steady-state and transient conditions by back-tracking a particle from the midpoint of the wetted screen of each well. Traveltimes to contributing areas that ranged between 15 and 50 years, estimated by the steady-state model, differed most from the transient traveltime estimates. Estimates of traveltimes and pathlines based on steady-state model results typically were 10 to 20 years more and about twice as long as corresponding estimates from the transient model. The models differed because the steady-state model simulated 1996 conditions when Naval Station Mayport had more impervious surfaces than at any earlier time. The expansion of the impervious surfaces increased the average distance between contributing areas and observation wells.

Florida

Geohydrology of stratified drift and streamflow in the Deerfield River basin, northwestern Massachusetts

This report presents the results of a study of the geohydrology of stratified drift and streamflow in the Deerfield River Basin, northwestern Massachusetts. Detailed hydrologic information is needed to plan for the optimal use of ground-water and surface-water resources and for development of new drinking-water supplies in the basin. Sources and percentage of water available for recharge on an annual basis from October 1993 to September 1994, to the fine-grained stratified-drift in a narrow valley bordered by upland till and bedrock were: (1) direct infiltration of precipitation on the valley (30 percent); (2) tributary loss from an upland brook as it crosses the valley (7 percent); and (3) ground- and surface-water runoff from the uplands (63 percent). Seventy percent of recharge was available from upland sources. Seasonal variation in recharge caused changes in ground-water levels and flow directions. In early spring, the direction of flow is toward the valley axis, but in late summer, the direction of flow is nearly parallel to the valley axis. Field observations and results of a ground-water flow simulation indicated that water available for recharge was greater than actual recharge during the spring snowmelt and during intense precipitation events. In 1994, estimates of water available for recharge were greater than actual recharge by 10 percent in March and by 60 percent in April; actual recharge to the valley on an annual basis from October 1993 to September 1994 was 20 percent less than original estimates. A map showing thickness of stratified drift in the Connecticut Valley Lowlands indicates a deep north-south trending buried valley. Maximum thickness of the stratified drift is 385 feet. Interpretation of a seismic-reflection survey indicates fine-grained stratified drift may be underlain by coarse-grained deposits ranging in thickness from 0 to 150 feet. Hydraulic properties of the stratified drift were calculated from ground-water-level fluctuations induced by river stage changes using a ground-water-flow model for a site adjacent to the Deerfield River. A comparison of measured and simulated heads resulted in a vertical riverbed hydraulic conductivity of 3 feet per day, anisotropic ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity of 40:1, and storage of 0.040 and 0.0002 for the unconfined and confined layers of the stratified drift. Hydraulic diffusivity (transmissivity divided by the unconfined storage) at the site is about 168,000 feet squared per day. Streamflows at times of low flow were determined for 27 sites that drain areas ranging from 0.57 to 15.8 percent stratified drift. Streamflows exceeded between 80 and 99 percent of the time were determined for sites on the unregulated tributaries to the Deerfield River. Streamflows per square mile of drainage area were greatest from sites at the downstream ends of the North River-Colrain and the Deerfield River-Charlemont stratified-drift valleys. Flow-duration curves for three continuous streamflow-gaging stations on the regulated Deerfield River were compared to flow-duration curves for three continuous streamflow-gaging stations on unregulated tributaries to show the effects of dam regulation on streamflow. Flow- duration curves constructed using instantaneous discharges for the three regulated gaging stations have flat sections that correspond to the predominant streamflows when water is being released from storage from the dams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Helicopter electromagnetic survey of the Model Land Area, Southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida

This report describes a helicopter electromagnetic survey flown over the Model Land Area in southeastern Miami-Dade County, Florida, to map saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer. The survey, which is located south and east of Florida City, Florida, covers an area of 115 square kilometers with a flight-line spacing of 400 meters. A five-frequency, horizontal, coplanar bird with frequencies ranging from 400 to 100,000 Hertz was used. The data were interpreted using differential resistivity analysis and inversion to produce cross sections and resistivity depth-slice maps. The depth of investigation is as deep as 100 meters in freshwater-saturated portions of the Biscayne aquifer and the depth diminishes to about 50 meters in areas that are intruded by saltwater. The results compare favorably with ground-based, time-domain electromagnetic soundings and induction logs from observation wells in the area. The base of a high-resistivity, freshwater-saturated zone mapped in the northern 2 kilometers of the survey area corresponds quite well with the base of the surficial aquifer that has been determined by drilling. In general, saltwater in the survey area extends 9 to 12 kilometers inland from the coast; however, there is a long nose of saltwater centered along the Card Sound Road Canal that extends 15 kilometers inland. The cause of this preferential intrusion is likely due to uncontrolled surface flow along the canal and subsequent leakage of saltwater into the aquifer. Saltwater also extends farther inland in the area between U.S. Highway 1 and Card Sound Road than it does to the west of this area. Until 1944, a railroad grade occupied the current location of U.S. Highway 1. Borrow ditches associated with the railroad grade connected to Barnes Sound and allowed saltwater to flow during droughts and storm surges to within a few kilometers of Florida City. Relicts of this saltwater that settled to the bottom of the Biscayne aquifer can be seen in the helicopter electromagnetic data. The area to the west of U.S. Highway 1 is more resistive in the upper 10 meters than the area to the east of the road; this reflects the influence of surface-water flows that are blocked by U.S. Highway 1. Between Card Sound Road and U.S. Highway 1, resistivities are slightly lower compared to adjacent areas. In the southern portion of the survey area, the surficial aquifer underlying the Biscayne aquifer is more resistive; this indicates that it contains fresher water than that found at the base of the Biscayne aquifer.

Florida

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Rochester area, southeastern Minnesota, 1987-88

Ground-water flow in the St. Peter-Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer was studied in a 700 square-mile area surrounding Rochester, Minnesota. The aquifer consisting of sandstone, limestone, and dolomite is locally confined by the Decorah-Platteville-Glenwood sequence of shales and limestones. Regional flow in the aquifer is from a ground-water divide on the western, southern, and eastern sides of the city toward various rivers. A 140-square-mile area of the aquifer is a source of water supply for the Rochester area. A cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer throughout most of the year is centered around high-capacity (greater than about 200 gallons per minute) wells in downtown Rochester. The cone covered an area of about 2.3 square miles in August 1988. Most streams in the area gain water from the ground-water system. One reach of the South Fork Zumbro River, however, loses water to the system. This loss is probably caused by the pumping of nearby high-capacity wells. A ground-water-flow model was used to simulate the effects of an extended drought near Rochester. Conclusions based on the simulations are that (1) reduced recharge and increased pumping, conditions that could exist during a 3-year drought, would probably lower water levels 5 to 10 feet regionally and more than 30 feet in the city; (2) pumping of six additional municipal wells on the perimeter of the city would lower regional water levels about 1 to 5 feet; and (3) that water levels would recover 1 to 18 feet if pumping from six municipal wells in downtown Rochester were discontinued. The area encompasses five recharge zones that can be delineated on the basis of recharge rate. About 54 percent of recharge to the aquifer in the area contributing water to Rochester is from a zone along the edge of the Decorah-Platteville-Glenwood confining unit. About 10 percent of recharge in this contributing area is to the sewered area of Rochester.

Minnesota

Geostatistical Modeling of Sediment Abundance in a Heterogeneous Basalt Aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

The spatial distribution of sediment in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was evaluated and modeled to improve the parameterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) for a subregional-scale ground-water flow model being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The aquifer is hosted within a layered series of permeable basalts within which intercalated beds of fine-grained sediment constitute local confining units. These sediments have K values as much as six orders of magnitude lower than the most permeable basalt, and previous flow-model calibrations have shown that hydraulic conductivity is sensitive to the proportion of intercalated sediment. Stratigraphic data in the form of sediment thicknesses from 333 boreholes in and around the Idaho National Laboratory were evaluated as grouped subsets of lithologic units (composite units) corresponding to their relative time-stratigraphic position. The results indicate that median sediment abundances of the stratigraphic units below the water table are statistically invariant (stationary) in a spatial sense and provide evidence of stationarity across geologic time, as well. Based on these results, the borehole data were kriged as two-dimensional spatial data sets representing the sediment content of the layers that discretize the ground-water flow model in the uppermost 300 feet of the aquifer. Multiple indicator kriging (mIK) was used to model the geographic distribution of median sediment abundance within each layer by defining the local cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of sediment via indicator variograms defined at multiple thresholds. The mIK approach is superior to ordinary kriging because it provides a statistically best estimate of sediment abundance (the local median) drawn from the distribution of local borehole data, independent of any assumption of normality. A methodology is proposed for delineating and constraining the assignment of hydraulic conductivity zones for parameter estimation, based on the locally estimated CFDs and relative kriging uncertainty. A kriging-based methodology improves the spatial resolution of hydraulic property zones that can be considered during parameter estimation and should improve calibration performance and sensitivity by more accurately reflecting the nuances of sediment distribution within the aquifer.

Scientific Investigations Report

Digital surfaces and thicknesses of selected hydrogeologic units within the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS)

Digital surfaces of selected Tertiary and younger age hydrogeologic units within the Mississippi embayment aquifer system were created using more than 2,600 geophysical logs for an area that covers approximately 70,000 square miles and encompasses parts of eight states. The digital surfaces were developed to define and display the hydrogeologic framework for the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS). The digital surfaces also provide a foundation of the selected hydrogeologic units for development of a steady-state and transient regional ground-water flow model of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system from the top of the Midway confining unit upwards to land surface. The ground-water flow model is under development as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program. Using a Geographic Information System, nine digital surfaces of the tops of selected hydrogeologic units were created using the Australian National University Digital Elevation Model method as an interpolation scheme. Thickness maps also were constructed using the Geographic Information System by calculating the difference between the altitude of the interpreted base of an overlying unit and the altitude of the interpreted top of an underlying unit. In general, the highest hydrogeologic unit altitudes are located along the eastern edge of the study area in the outcrop, and the lowest altitudes, in general, are located along the southern edge of the study area along the axis of the embayment. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and the lower Claiborne aquifer are the thinnest aquifers of importance in the study area; the thickest aquifer of importance is the middle Claiborne aquifer.

Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer

Potential incremental seepage losses in an alluvial channel in the Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico

A two-dimensional, digital, cross-sectional model was used to simulate seepage of water from an alluvial channel, which had the general characteristic of the Rio Grande channel, into the underlying alluvium within the reach from Cochiti Dam to Elephant Butte Reservoir. Seepage rates were determined for losing and gaining reaches, and reaches affected by pumping of ground water. The seepage rates were computed for stream surcharges (height of additional water applied on top of base flow) ranging from 0.5 foot to 3 feet and for application periods ranging from 1 to 100 days. The net seepage rates, which were nearly identical for each type of reach, ranged from 0.0 cubic foot per second per mile of channel length for a 0.5 foot surcharge applied for 1 day to 0.37 cubic foot per second per mile of channel length for a 3 feet surcharge applied for 100 days, followed by a 180 day seepage return flow from the aquifer. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

A Science Plan for a Comprehensive Regional Assessment of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System in Maryland

The Maryland Coastal Plain region is, at present, largely dependent upon ground water for its water supply. Decades of increasing pumpage have caused ground-water levels in parts of the Maryland Coastal Plain to decline by as much as 2 feet per year in some areas of southern Maryland. Continued declines at this rate could affect the long-term sustainability of ground-water resources in Maryland's heavily populated Coastal Plain communities and the agricultural industry of the Eastern Shore. In response to a recommendation in 2004 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, the Maryland Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information and new data management and analysis tools for the State to use in allocating ground water in the Coastal Plain. The comprehensive assessment has five goals aimed at improving the current information and tools used to understand the resource potential of the aquifer system: (1) document the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system in the Maryland Coastal Plain and appropriate areas of adjacent states; (2) conduct detailed studies of the regional ground-water-flow system and water budget for the aquifer system; (3) improve documentation of patterns of water quality in all Coastal Plain aquifers, including the distribution of saltwater; (4) enhance ground-water-level, streamflow, and water-quality-monitoring networks in the Maryland Coastal Plain; and (5) develop science-based tools to facilitate sound management of the ground-water resources in the Maryland Coastal Plain. The assessment, as designed, will be conducted in three phases and if fully implemented, is expected to take 7 to 8 years to complete. Phase I, which was initiated in January 2006, is an effort to assemble all the information and investigation tools needed to do a more comprehensive assessment of the aquifer system. The work will include updating the hydrogeologic framework, developing a Geographic Information System-based aquifer information system, refinement of water-use information, assessment of existing water-quality data, and development of detailed plans for ground-water-flow and management models. Phase II is an intensive study phase during which a regional ground-water-flow model will be developed and calibrated for the entire region of Maryland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain as well as appropriate areas of Delaware and Virginia. The model will be used to simulate flow and water levels in the aquifer system and to study the water budget of the system. The model analysis will be based on published information but will be supplemented with field investigations of recharge and leakage in the aquifer system. Localized and finely discretized ground-water-flow models that are embedded in the regional model will be developed for selected areas of heavy withdrawals. Other modeling studies will be conducted to better understand flow in the unconfined parts of the aquifer system and to support the recharge studies. Phase II will also include selected water-quality studies and a study to determine how hydrologic and water-quality-monitoring networks need to be enhanced to appropriately assess the sustainability of the Coastal Plain aquifer system. Phase III will be largely devoted to the development and application of a ground-water optimization model. This model will be linked to the ground-water-flow model to create a model package that can be used to test different water-management scenarios. The management criteria that will be used to develop these scenarios will be determined in consultation with a variety of state and local stakeholders and policy makers in Phases I and II of the assessment. The development of the aquifer information system is a key component of the assessment. The system will store all relevant aquifer data

Open-File Report

Recovery of Ground-Water Levels From 1988 to 2003 and Analysis of Potential Water-Supply Management Options in Critical Area 1, East-Central New Jersey

Water levels in four confined aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain within Water Supply Critical Area 1 have recovered as a result of reductions in ground-water withdrawals initiated by the State in the late 1980s. The aquifers are the Wenonah-Mount Laurel, the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy, and Englishtown aquifer system. Because of increased water demand due to increased development in Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties, five base and nine alternate management models were designed for the four aquifers to evaluate the effects resulting from potential reallocation of part of the Critical Area 1 reductions in withdrawals. The change in withdrawals and associated water-level changes in the aquifers for 1988-2003 are discussed. Generally, withdrawals decreased 25 to 30 Mgal/d (million gallons per day), and water levels increased 0 to 80 ft (feet). The Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) ground-water-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to simulate ground-water flow and optimize withdrawals using the Ground-Water Management Process (GWM) for MODFLOW. Results of the model were used to evaluate the effects of several possible water-supply management options in order to provide the information to water managers. The optimization method, which provides a means to set constraints that support mandated hydrologic conditions, then determine the maximum withdrawals that meet the constraints, is a more cost-effective approach than simulating a range of withdrawals to determine the effects on the aquifer system. The optimization method is particularly beneficial for a regional-scale study of this kind because of the large number of wells to be evaluated. Before the model was run, a buffer analysis was done to define an area with no additional withdrawals that minimizes changes in simulated streamflow in aquifer outcrop areas and simulated movement of ground water toward the wells from areas of possible high chloride concentrations in the northern and southern parts of the Critical Area. Five base water-supply management models were developed. Each management model has an objective function, decision variables, and constraints. Two of the five management models were test cases: clean slate option and reallocation from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and Englishtown aquifer system to small volume wells for potable water use. Nine other models also were developed as part of a trade-off analysis between withdrawal amounts and constraint values. The 14 management models included current (2003) or regularly spaced well locations with variations on the constraints of ground-water head, drawdown, velocity at the 250-mg/L (milligram per liter) isochlor, and withdrawal rate. Results of each management model were evaluated in terms of withdrawals, heads, saltwater intrusion, and source of water by aquifer. Each trade-off curve was defined by using six to nine separate management model runs. Results of the management models designed in this study indicate that a withdrawal reallocation of 5 to 20 Mgal/d within Critical Area 1 would increase the area of heads below -30 ft and the velocity at the 250-mg/L isochlor by up to 4 times that of the simulated 2003 results; the range of values are 0 to 521 square miles and 1 to 20 feet per year, respectively. The increase in area of heads below -30 ft was larger in the Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer than in other aquifers because that area was negligible in 2003. The range of modeled withdrawals is closely tied to management-model design. Interpretation of management model results is provided as well as a discussion of limitations.

Scientific Investigations Report

Simulation of the ground-water flow system and proposed withdrawals in the northern part of Vekol Valley, Arizona

Pursuant to the Ak-Chin Indian Community Water Rights Settlement Act (Public Law 95-328-enacted on July 28, 1978) a study was undertaken to assess the effect of proposed groundwater withdrawal from Federal lands near the reservation. The first area to be evaluated was the northern part of the Vekol Valley. The evaluation was made using a numerical model based on detailed geohydrologic concepts developed during the study. The numerical model, which was calibrated to steady-state and transient groundwater conditions in the northern part of Vekol Valley, adequately duplicated the conceptual model and was used to estimate the effect of withdrawing approximately 174,000 acre-ft from the system during a 25-yr period. At the end of the 25-yr period, the water level was drawn down an average of about 95 ft, and about 150,5000 acre-ft of water was removed from storage. The 150,500 acre-ft of water represents 43% of the estimated recoverable groundwater in storage. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Methodology for estimating times of remediation associated with monitored natural attenuation

Natural attenuation processes combine to disperse, immobilize, and biologically transform anthropogenic contaminants, such as petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated ethenes, in ground-water systems. The time required for these processes to lower contaminant concentrations to levels protective of human health and the environment, however, varies widely between different hydrologic systems, different chemical contaminants, and varying amounts of contaminants. This report outlines a method for estimating timeframes required for natural attenuation processes, such as dispersion, sorption, and biodegradation, to lower contaminant concentrations and mass to predetermined regulatory goals in groundwater systems. The time-of-remediation (TOR) problem described in this report is formulated as three interactive components: (1) estimating the length of a contaminant plume once it has achieved a steady-state configuration from a source area of constant contaminant concentration, (2) estimating the time required for a plume to shrink to a smaller, regulatoryacceptable configuration when source-area contaminant concentrations are lowered by engineered methods, and (3) estimating the time needed for nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contaminants to dissolve, disperse, and biodegrade below predetermined levels in contaminant source areas. This conceptualization was used to develop Natural Attenuation Software (NAS), an interactive computer aquifers. NAS was designed as a screening tool and requires the input of detailed site information about hydrogeology, redox conditions, and the distribution of contaminants. Because NAS is based on numerous simplifications of hydrologic, microbial, and geochemical processes, the program may introduce unacceptable errors for highly heterogeneous hydrologic systems. In such cases, application of the TOR framework outlined in this report may require more detailed, site-specific digital modeling. The NAS software may be downloaded from the Web site http://www.cee.vt.edu/NAS/ Application of NAS illustrates several general characteristics shared by all TOR problems. First, the distance of stabilization of a contaminant plume is strongly dependent on the natural attenuation capacity of particular ground-water systems. The time that it takes a plume to reach a steady-state configuration, however, is independent of natural attenuation capacity. Rather, the time of stabilization is most strongly affected by the sorptive capacity of the aquifer, which is dependent on the organic matter content of the aquifer sediments, as well as the sorptive properties of individual contaminants. As a general rule, a high sorptive capacity retards a plume.s growth or shrinkage, and increases the time of stabilization. Finally, the time of NAPL dissolution depends largely on NAPL mass, composition, geometry, and hydrologic factors, such as ground-water flow rates. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina. About 500 to 1,000 pounds of gasoline leaked into the aquifer at this site in 1991, and the NAS simulations suggested that TOR would be on the order of 10 years for soluble and poorly sorbed compounds, such as benzene and methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE). Conversely, TOR would be on the order of 40 years for less soluble, more strongly sorbed compounds, such as toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX). These TOR estimates are roughly consistent with contaminant concentrations observed over 10 years of monitoring at this site where benzene and MTBE concentrations were observed to decrease rapidly and are approaching regulatory maximum concentration limits, whereas toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene concentrations decreased at a slower rate and have remained relatively high. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina.

South Carolina