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USGS2020

Transmitter effects on growth and survival of Forster’s tern chicks

Radio‐telemetry is a commonly used scientific technique that allows researchers to collect detailed movement, habitat use, and survival data of animals; however, evidence indicates that using telemetry can affect behavior and survival. Using multiple breeding colonies and years, we investigated the effects of attached radio‐transmitters on growth and survival of Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ) chicks in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, 2010–2011. We tested these potential effects at isolated islands that allowed for high re‐capture rates (typically >85%) in radio‐marked and banded‐only chicks. Modeled Gompertz growth curves suggested that transmitters had a small negative effect on some of the asymptotic growth parameters of tern chicks; tarsus (−1.5 ± 0.7% [SE]), culmen (−1.7 ± 1.2%), and wing (−4.9 ± 2.0%) lengths were shorter for radio‐marked chicks compared to banded‐only chicks. In contrast, there was no difference in asymptotic mass between radio‐marked chicks and banded‐only chicks. Survival from hatching to fledging was lower for radio‐marked chicks than banded‐only chicks during 2010 (banded‐only = 0.313 ± 0.162 vs. radio‐marked = 0.250 ± 0.165) and 2011 (0.193 ± 0.030 vs. 0.123 ± 0.027). Most of the transmitter effect occurred within the first week after hatching, rather than in older chicks. Notably, the effect of transmitters on chick survival was primarily additive, indicating that the effect of transmitters on radio‐marked chicks was not influenced by other ecological covariates. Given the effect radio‐transmitters had on survival did not change across temporal or ecological gradients, transmitters can still be used to evaluate ecological factors affecting survival and timing of mortality and radio‐marked birds can be used to make inferences to the general population.

California↗

USGS2022

Trends in vegetation and height of the topographic surface in a tidal freshwater swamp experiencing rooting zone saltwater intrusion

A decrease in the ground surface height of coastal wetlands is of worldwide concern because of its relationship to peat loss, coastal carbon, and biodiversity in freshwater wetlands. We asked if it is possible to determine indicators of impending transitions of freshwater swamps to other coastal types by examining long-term changes in the environment and vegetation. In a tidal Taxodium distichum swamp in Hickory Point State Forest, Maryland, the topographic surface height (ground surface height) decreased by as much as 25.6 ± 2.2 to 50.8 ± 3.8 cm at two Surface Elevation Tables from 2015 to 2021 following salinity intrusion events related to hurricanes and offshore storms (e.g., Hurricane Melissa). In 2019, rooting zone salinity exceeded 5 ppt for >24.9 % of the time, with a maximum salinity level of 12.5 ppt. Tree growth of T. distichum trees declined and 60 % of these trees died along a 4 m wide × 125 m transect in 2014–2016. Root biomass and ground surface height decreased roughly in conjunction with a salinity pulse in the rooting zone during Hurricane Melissa in 2019. Saplings survived but T. distichum seedlings were uncommon and did not survive in the study area. Typha × glauca increased in cover (0.2 to 5.6 % cover plot −1 ) from 2014 to 2016 so a vegetation shift toward T. × glauca was apparent by 2021. This work captures a multi-year trend of decreasing ground surface height, tree growth and health, and freshwater status in the rooting zone that may be an indicator of impending vegetation transition.

Maryland↗

USGS2018

Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2023

Spatial patterns and seasonal timing of increasing riverine specific conductance from 1998 to 2018 suggest legacy contamination in the Delaware River Basin

Increasing salinization of freshwater threatens water supplies that support a range of human and ecological uses. The latest assessments of Delaware River Basin (DRB) surface-water-quality changes indicate widespread salinization has occurred in recent decades, which may lead to meaningful degradation in water quality. To better understand how and when salinity transport occurs and implications for DRB streams, this study: 1) explores the variability of specific conductance (SC) trends spatially and seasonally from 1998 to 2018, and 2) investigates how trends relate to streamflow, land disturbance, and impervious surface area to better understand regional salinization drivers. We find widespread increases in SC across the DRB, with several sites in the lower basin exceeding thresholds for aquatic life and experiencing increasing frequencies of exceedance over time. In general, the greatest basin wide increases in SC occurred during low flow conditions, indicating that a legacy component resulting from subsurface retention and transport processes has driven observed changes in riverine SC. For a subset of sites in the lower basin, where impervious area and cumulative land disturbance are higher, the greatest SC increases occurred during high flow conditions in winter months. Given the patterns of SC and watershed changes across the basin, as well as strong relationships between SC trends and sodium and chloride trends, deicing salt appears to be a likely driver of observed SC change. Even if deicing salt application plateaus or declines in coming years, the continued release and transport of the legacy subsurface component may still contribute to elevated DRB riverine SC.

Delaware River Basin↗

USGS2025

Hydraulic connectivity and hydrochemistry influence microbial community structure in agriculturally-affected alluvial aquifers in the Midwestern United States

Alluvial aquifers can provide ecosystem services and drinking water, but much remains unknown about human effects on aquifer microbiomes. Therefore, we used amplicon sequencing and hydrochemical characterization to pair microbial communities with environmental conditions across 37 alluvial aquifer wells. The study region spanned eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota (USA) and contained a combination of drinking water and monitoring wells. In terms of microbial ecology, dominant phyla across the wells included Proteobacteria, Bacteroidota, Patescibacteria, Planctomycetota, and Nitrospirota. Tritium, an indicator of infiltration and surface water influence, was the highest correlated variable with the Shannon index (α-diversity) by the Spearman rank sum (ρ = 0.60) and one of only four significant environmental variables in the constrained correspondence analysis. We built random forest regression models to predict tritium concentrations from microbial family relative abundance (held-out testing coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) = 0.77 and mean absolute percentage error = 7%) and interpreted the models with Shapley additive explanation values. The most important families for predicting tritium concentrations were Nitrosopumilaceae and Methylomirabilaceae . Upwelling methane could contribute to the unusual coupling of ammonia oxidation by Nitrosopumilaceae with simultaneous nitrite-dependent methane oxidation by Methylomirabilaceae . Taken together, we illuminate the relationship among hydrochemistry, hydraulic connectivity, and alluvial aquifer microbiomes.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

USGS2025

A transdisciplinary approach to growing an applied science of cultural evolution for a sustainable future

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗

USGS1982

Micronutrients and kelp cultures: Evidence for cobalt and manganese deficiency in Southern California deep seawater

It has been suggested that naturally occurring copper and zinc concentrations in deep seawater are toxic to marine organisms when the free ion forms are overabundant. The effects of micronutrients on the growth of gametophytes of the ecologically and commercially significant giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) were studied in defined media. The results indicate that toxic copper and zinc ion concentrations as well as cobalt and manganese deficiencies may be among the factors controlling the growth of marine organisms in nature.

California↗

USGS2013

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Physical Geography↗

USGS2006

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West: Summary of activities and accomplishments in South Dakota, 2000-2004

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West was initiated in South Dakota in 2000 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The two primary objectives of the surface waters component of EMAP-West were to (1) develop the monitoring tools (biological indicators, stream survey design, estimates of reference condition) necessary to produce unbiased estimates of the ecological condition of surface waters across a large geographic area of the West; and (2) demonstrate the effectiveness of those tools in a large-scale assessment. Although not specifically defined as an objective, data collected during EMAP-West also will help to establish a baseline for comparisons with data obtained from future monitoring efforts and could document changing biological conditions resulting from changing land-use or land-management practices associated with regulatory or restorative efforts. EMAP-West is a partnership between USEPA, States, Tribes, and other interested parties in USEPA Regions 8, 9, and 10. In South Dakota, the principle EMAP-West cooperators include the USEPA, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks (GF&P), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Other agencies such as the Natural Resource Conservation Service, the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources (SDDENR), State Conservation Districts, and various Tribal departments also have provided valuable expertise and assistance. This fact sheet summarizes the activities and accomplishments associated with EMAP-West in South Dakota during 2000–2004. Efforts were focused on perennial streams that usually can be waded. Large rivers also were assessed during EMAP-West under the auspices of USEPA using boats and similar techniques, but are not included in the activities discussed here. Data-collection activities for wadeable streams were conducted under the auspices of USEPA in South Dakota during 2000 and by the USGS during 2001–2004. A more detailed description of EMAP-West activities and assessments in South Dakota is available in Heakin and others ( in press ).

South Dakota↗

USGS2002

Land use change and effects on water quality and ecosystem health in the Lake Tahoe basin, Nevada and California: year-1 progress

As part of the requirements for the Geographic Research and Applications Prospectus grants, this Open-File Report is the second of two that resulted from the first year of the project. The first Open-File Report (OFR 01-418) introduced the project, reviewed the existing body of literature, and outlined the research approach. This document will present an update of the research approach and offer some preliminary results from multiple efforts, specifically, the production of historical digital orthophoto quadrangles, the development of the land use/land cover (LULC) classification system, the development of a temporal transportation layer, the classification of anthropogenic cover types from the IKONOS imagery, a preliminary evaluation of landscape ecology metrics (quantification of spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem structure and function with appropriate indices) and their utility in comparing two LULC systems, and a new initiative in community-based science and facilitation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Water-quality trends of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, 2005–18

The U.S. Geological Survey and the city of Independence, Missouri, Water Pollution Control Department has studied the water quality and ecological condition of urban streams within Independence since 2005. Selected physical properties, nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), total dissolved solids, and suspended-sediment concentration data for base-flow and stormflow samples were used to document temporal trends in concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations; and annual loads were computed and investigated for selected nutrients, chloride, and suspended sediment. The six study sites included in this report are located on five urban streams: Rock Creek, a tributary in the city that drains to the Missouri River; three tributaries of the Little Blue River within the city (East Fork Little Blue River, Adair Creek, and Spring Branch Creek); and two sites on the main stem of the Little Blue River (one upstream from the city and one downstream from the three tributaries). Many factors such as population, land use, and climate, and combinations of these factors contributed to the significant changes in the concentrations and transport of nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria, and suspended sediment in the urban streams within Independence. The population of Independence and the amount of developed land in the urban watersheds remained unchanged during the 2005–18 study. Differences were noted in precipitation and in streamflow during the study. Annual precipitation and streamflow were separated into two time periods within the study—period 1 (2006–10), having greater annual streamflow and precipitation, and period 2 (2011–18), having about 30 percent lower annual streamflow and less precipitation. Streamflow was an important factor in the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, chloride, and suspended sediment from the urban watersheds. Changes in data collection methodology during the study period and improvements to the city stormwater and wastewater infrastructure also could have contributed to some of the trends. Between 2009 and 2015, more than 35 million dollars of improvements were made to stormwater and wastewater infrastructure within the city. These improvements, such as additional sewage overflow holding tanks, removal of septic tanks, and improved and expanded sanitary sewer lines and storm overflows, also could have affected the decreased nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria trends among the urban streams in the study area. Models were used for analyzing streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations and loads to determine if the water quality changed significantly during the study period. Trends in concentration data at four sites were analyzed using a statistical package called R–QWTREND and trends in load data were analyzed at six sites using a statistical package called Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season-Kalman filter (WRTDS–K); both developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and publicly available for use. Statistically significant trends in flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and loads generally were downward during the study period. The only nutrient compound with a statistically significant upward trend in flow-weighted concentration was dissolved orthophosphate as phosphorus at the Rock Creek site and the upstream site on the Little Blue River. A statistically significant downward trend in annual dissolved ammonia load was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. A significant upward linear trend in annual orthophosphate as phosphorus load was identified on Adair Creek. A statistically significant upward trend in dissolved chloride concentrations was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. Road salt application near the site during the winter could have resulted in higher concentrated runoff during wet weather conditions. Annual chloride loads significantly decreased in Adair Creek and Spring Branch Creek. The mean annual chloride load transported in the drier (2011–18) period 2 was significantly less than during the wetter (2006–10) period 1, indicating that trends in precipitation runoff are an important factor in trends in annual transport of chloride. Statistically significant downward trends in flow-weighted fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli (E. coli) population densities were noted for Rock Creek and the down-stream site on the Little Blue River. However, no trend was identified in E. coli population density at the upstream Little Blue River site. The downward trend in E. coli population density at the downstream site could be a result of decreased streamflow and precipitation over the study period, storage of fecal indicator bacteria in the Little Blue River streambed within the study area, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during travel from upstream to downstream, changes in the sample collection methodology, improvements to the city’s storm-water and wastewater infrastructures, or a combination of these factors. The statistically significant downward trend in suspended-sediment concentration identified at the upstream Little Blue River site could be affected by the decreased streamflow and precipitation during the study period, by changes in sampling methods within the study period, and by the decrease in construction and urban land development upstream from the city. No statistically significant change was indicated in the annual suspended-sediment load transported from Independence to the Little Blue River during the study period. More than one-half the suspended sediment transported in the Little Blue River originated in the watershed upstream from Independence. The Little Blue River and many of its tributaries that drain Independence have been designated as recreational waters classified for whole-body contact class B and secondary contact recreation, and some have been listed as impaired for E. coli by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources from urban runoff and storm sewers. Observations were made among the available E. coli population density data for both Little Blue River sites to further understand water-quality conditions over the study period. Both Little Blue River sites had similar medians and geometric means for the recreational season (April through October) and during the full study period, both of which are greater than the regulatory population density for both recreational classes. The Little Blue River drainage area nearly doubles in size from the upstream to downstream site; therefore, the consistent geometric mean and median of E. coli population densities at the upstream and downstream Little Blue River sites could be primarily due to the larger volume of streamflow creating a dilution effect. Other possible factors could be storage of fecal indicator bacteria in stream bed sediments, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during transport, improvements to the city’s wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, changes to sampling methodology, or a combination of these factors. Specific sources of the E. coli are currently (2019) unknown.

Missouri↗

USGS2014

Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

Limnology and Oceanography: Methods↗

USGS1989

Regional lists of plant species that occur in wetlands: data base user's guide

The Data Base List of Plant Species that Occur in Wetlands (LIST) currently contains records for 6,728 plant species. Each record provides information on nomenclature, plant characteristics and lifeforms, distribution, and frequency of occurrence in wetlands. The List of Plant Species that Occur in Wetlands, developed to supplement the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Classification of Wetlands and Deepwater Habitats of the United States (Cowardin et al. 1979), underwent an intensive review by field botanists across the country. This review was coordinated by national and regional interagency wetland plant list review panels composed of representatives from the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Soil Conservation Service, and the Environmental Protection Agency. Initial and updated versions of the Data Base List of Plant Species that Occur in Wetlands are available in hardcopy (Reed 1986, 1988). Regional lists are available as U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report Series 88(26.126.13). State lists are available as National Ecology Research Center Report Series 88(18.01-18.50). The computerized data base tracks and documents indicator assignments made by regional interagency review panels and facilitates generation of reports. This user's guide describes the format and contents of the LIST Data Base. The Data Base is available on 5-1/4" floppy disks in ASCII format for use with a data base management system on an IBM PC/XT/AT compatible computer. The LIST Data Base was developed using the QUICKTEXT Data Base Management System (Osborn and Strong 1984). Use of QUICKTEXT with the LIST Data Base is strongly recommended. Instructions for loading LIST into QUICKTEXT are included in this user's guide. Other data base management systems capable of handling variable length fields can be used by individuals familiar with these software packages. LIST distribution disks are available for 13 regions (Table 1). QUICKTEXT (course QT100--Data Base Management Techniques) and regional subsets of the LIST Data Base (distributed as self-tutorial courses, Table 1) are available through the Office of Conference Services, Colorado State University.

Report↗

USGS2002

Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships

We used a probabilistic approach to address the influence of sampling artifacts on the form of species-area relationships (SARs). We developed a model in which the increase in observed species richness is a function of sampling effort exclusively. We assumed that effort depends on area sampled, and we generated species-area curves under that model. These curves can be realistic looking. We then generated SARs from avian data, comparing SARs based on counts with those based on richness estimates. We used an approach to estimation of species richness that accounts for species detection probability and, hence, for variation in sampling effort. The slopes of SARs based on counts are steeper than those of curves based on estimates of richness, indicating that the former partly reflect failure to account for species detection probability. SARs based on estimates reflect ecological processes exclusively, not sampling processes. This approach permits investigation of ecologically relevant hypotheses. The slope of SARs is not influenced by the slope of the relationship between habitat diversity and area. In situations in which not all of the species are detected during sampling sessions, approaches to estimation of species richness integrating species detection probability should be used to investigate the rate of increase in species richness with area.

Maryland↗

USGS2025

Drought in the Delta: Socio-ecological impacts, responses, and tools

Droughts are frequent events in the western United States, and can disrupt water supply and degrade water quality, challenging water management in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta). This chapter for the State of Bay–Delta Science report describes what drought means for the Delta, how drought is managed in the Delta, and how drought management has changed over time. Projections of future climate indicate the possibility of increased frequency and severity of droughts which would have increasing effects on California’s water system, society, and ecological functions within and beyond the Delta. California has experienced several major droughts in the 20th and 21st centuries, each of which has caused significant social and ecological impacts and motivated improvements in water management. Droughts decrease native fish populations, increase harmful algal blooms, and promote the spread of many invasive plant and animal species. For people living within the Delta and those that rely on Delta water exports, droughts increase drinking water costs and decrease agricultural production, negatively affecting agricultural economies and labor markets. Tools developed in response to droughts include actions that increase supply, such as building water infrastructure, actions to reduce demand, such as water conservation campaigns, and mitigation actions, such as monetary relief for drought-impacted communities. Improving drought resilience requires development of additional drought responses, increased forecasting accuracy, and increased awareness of impacts on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Even with development of additional management actions, strategies, and regulations, there will likely be difficulties meeting the current levels of demand for water. Drought conditions already cause conflict between human and environmental uses, and with more extreme droughts possible in the future and projected increases in demand, it will be challenging to provide for all users’ needs even with major changes to water management in the Delta.

California↗

USGS2020

Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a previously published brGDGT record from Silver Lake, Ohio, using improved chromatographic methods. All pollen- and brGDGT-based temperature reconstructions showed qualitatively similar deglacial trends but varying magnitudes. Separating 5- and 6- methyl brGDGTs resulted in substantially lower estimates of deglacial temperature variations (6.4 °C) than inferred from earlier brGDGT methods and pollen (11.8 °C, 12.0 °C respectively). Similar trends among proxies suggest good fidelity of brGDGTs to temperature, despite calibration uncertainties. At both sites, the rise and decline of no-analog communities closely track brGDGT-inferred temperatures, with a lag of 0 to 150 years. The timing of temperature and ecological events varies between Bonnet and Silver Lakes, likely due to age model uncertainties. Climate sensitivity analyses indicate a linear sensitivity of vegetation composition to temperature variations, albeit noisy and significant only with a 500-year bin. The formation of no-analog plant communities in the upper Midwest is closely linked to late-glacial warming, but other factors, such as temperature seasonality or end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, remain viable.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2015

Groundwater and surface-water interaction and effects of pumping in a complex glacial-sediment aquifer, phase 2, east-central Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Framingham, Massachusetts, has investigated the potential of proposed groundwater withdrawals at the Birch Road well site to affect nearby surface water bodies and wetlands, including Lake Cochituate, the Sudbury River, and the Great Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in east-central Massachusetts. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a Phase 1 numerical groundwater model of a complex glacial-sediment aquifer to synthesize hydrogeologic information and simulate potential future pumping scenarios. The model was developed with MODFLOW-NWT, an updated version of a standard USGS numerical groundwater flow modeling program that improves solution of unconfined groundwater flow problems. The groundwater model and investigations of the aquifer improved understanding of groundwater–surface-water interaction and the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water bodies and wetlands in the study area. The initial work also revealed a need for additional information and model refinements to better understand this complex aquifer system. In this second phase of the study, the original groundwater flow model was revised to improve representation of groundwater and surface-water hydrology, stabilize the model, and reduce model error. The model was simplified by reducing the number of layers from 5 to 3 and adding the MODFLOW lake package (LAK) to simulate Lake Cochituate and Pod Meadow Pond and better represent interaction between the lakes and the aquifer. Model revisions improved stability and shortened run times, allowing use of automated parameter estimation software (PEST) to further refine the model hydraulic parameters and reduce simulation errors. Model simulations indicate that under average base-flow conditions, the Birch Road wells have a small effect on flow in the Sudbury River during most months, even at the maximum pumping rate of 4.9 ft 3 /s (3.17 Mgal/d). Maximum percent streamflow depletion in the Sudbury River caused by simulated pumping takes place during simulated drought conditions, when streamflow decreased by as much as 21 percent under maximum continuous pumping. Simulations also indicate that groundwater withdrawals at the Birch Road site could be managed so that adverse streamflow impacts are substantially ameliorated. Under the most ecologically conservative simulated drought conditions, simulated streamflow depletion was reduced from 21 percent to 3 percent by pumping at the maximum rate for 6 months rather than for 12 months. Simulations that return 10 percent of the Birch Road well withdrawals to Pod Meadow Pond indicate a modest reduction in the Sudbury River streamflow depletion and provide a larger percentage increase to streamflow just downstream of the pond. The groundwater model also indicates that well locations can have a large effect on the sustainable pumping rate and so should be chosen carefully. The model provides a tool for evaluating alternative pumping rates and schedules not included in this analysis.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Optimizing sampling across transect-based methods improves the power of agroecological monitoring data

Transect-based monitoring has long been a valuable tool in ecosystem monitoring to measure multiple ecosystem attributes. The line-point intercept (LPI), vegetation height, and canopy gap intercept methods comprise a set of core methods, which provide indicators of ecosystem condition. However, users often struggle to design a sampling strategy that optimizes the ability to detect ecological change using transect-based methods. We assessed the sensitivity of each of these core methods to transect length, number, and sampling interval in 1-ha plots to determine: (1) minimum sampling required to describe ecosystem characteristics and detect change; and (2) optimal transect length and number to make recommendations for future analyses and monitoring efforts. We used data from 13 National Wind Erosion Research Network locations, including five LTAR sites, spanning the western United States, which included 151 plot sampling events over time across five biomes. We found that longer and increased replicates of transects were more important for reducing sampling error than increased sample intensity along fewer transects per plot. For all methods and indicators across biomes plots, three 100-m transects reduced sampling error such that indicator estimates fell within a 95% confidence interval of ±5% for canopy gap intercept and LPI-total foliar cover, ±5 cm for height, and ±2 species for LPI-species counts. For the same criteria at 80% confidence intervals, two 100-m transects are needed. Site-scale inference was strongly affected by sample design, consequently our understanding of ecological dynamics may be influenced by sampling decisions.

western United States↗