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USGS2019

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Winter is an understudied but key period for the socio-ecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid- and high-latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross-cutting understanding of 1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and 2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow-covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector-borne diseases and human health, recreation and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socio- ecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

South Dakota↗

USGS2019

Postfire population dynamics of a fire-dependent cypress

Tecate cypress ( Hesperocyparis forbesii ) is a rare species restricted to four metapopulations in southern California, USA and a few isolated stands in northern Baja California, Mexico. It is a closed-cone, fire-dependent tree of conservation concern due to an increase in human-caused wildfires that have shortened the interval between fires in many of their populations. In 2003 the Mine/Otay Fire burned 70% of the Tecate cypress on Otay Mountain in San Diego County, California providing an opportunity to evaluate the immaturity risk of this species and to examine its recruitment, survivorship, and reproductive maturity over a 14-year period from 2004 to 2017. Sixteen plots were established in burned stands of Tecate cypress with prefire ages that ranged from 7 to 53 years old. After 14 years the overall density of Tecate cypress was still higher than before the fire, however the areal extent of the species decreased due to the loss of locations where either there was low cone production or fire intensity was too high. The immaturity risk for this species, while a function of prefire stand age, is confounded by other factors including the reproductive capacities of trees based on their density and size and the climatic variables affecting their growth over time. The future management of Tecate cypress and other fire-dependent species requires a knowledge of all factors impacting their immaturity risk, as well as an understanding of the potential fire-climate interactions that may impact their persistence in a future of climate change and altered fire regimes.

California↗

USGS1990

Long-term vegetation change at a fully protected Sonoran Desert site

To investigate desert vegetation dynamics, I undertook an open—ended study of a site that offers a combination of multiple observations through time with continuous protection from domestic livestock and other human impacts. The site is MacDougal Crater in the Sierra del Pinacate Reserve, Sonora, Mexico. Three sources of data have been used: a series of exactly matched photographs, begun in 1907; detailed permanent—plot maps, dating from 1959—1960; and an age—distribution analysis of a 170—yr—old population of Carnegiea gigantea. The crater vegetation is dominated by the woody perennials Cercidium microphyllum, Encelia farinosa, Prosopis sp., and Larrea tridentata, and the columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea. Various populations of Larrea tridentata declined 50—90%, and Cercidium declined 60%, during the first half of this century with little or no recruitment since. Carnegiea numbers increased fourfold over the same period. A 200—fold increase in Prosopis in the playa—like crater center occurred in the early 1970s. Elsewhere on the crater floor, Encelia density increased markedly during the same period from insignificant levels in the early 1960s. Age distribution analysis for the Carnegiea population reveals three major establishment peaks during the 1790 period. Recruitment and morality records from the three sources of data are compared with regional climate records. The high mortality for some of the species was probably the result of the prolonged drought during 1936—1964. Establishment surges for some appear related to periods of unusually heavy precipitation during certain seasons. Clearly, desert communities are highly responsive to changes in the climate regime under which they grow.

Sonora↗

USGS1997

Gradients, vegetation and climate: spatial and temporal dynamics in the Olympic Mountains, USA

The steep environmental gradients of mountains result in the juxtaposition of diverse vegetation associations with narrow ecotones because life zones are compressed. Variation in geologic substrate, landforms, and soils, in combination with steep environmental gradients, create habitat diversity across spatial scales from 10 6 ha to <10 m 2 . This leads to higher biodiversity in a smaller space than in landscapes with less topographic variation. Mountains are often considered to be refuges for biological diversity at the regional scale, although variation in landscape features creates refuges at a fine scale as well. Mountains should also be considered a source of biological diversity, because they provide the germplasm for migration into lowland areas following glacial recession. Many taxa are distributed over a broad range of elevations and habitats, which maximizes the potential to respond to environmental perturbations. Reorganization of species distribution and abundance as a result of climatic change may be impacted considerably by human-caused fragmentation of landscape features, especially at lower elevations. This paper uses palaeoecological and biogeographical data to investigate the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of a steep maritime range, the Olympic Mountains (USA). The role of resource management in protecting vegetation in a fragmented landscape is discussed, with emphasis on how to address uncertainties such as climatic change.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Impact of climate change on mollusks and other invertebrate resources at the Dominican University of California archaeological site (CA-MRN-254), Marin County, California

We have identified and provided ecological interpretations of 30 taxa recovered at two shellmounds at the Dominican University of California archaeology site in Marin County, California (CA-MRN-254). A Q-mode cluster analysis was used to group the samples according to their faunal similarity. The clusters ranged from a diverse grouping of 100 samples with 27 taxa (Cluster A) to those with a more restricted assemblage (4–9 taxa in Clusters B to E). The Q-mode clusters were then used to interpret the variability in food resources utilized through the 1800 years of site occupation. During the Intermediate Middle Period (A.D.100-300), the inhabitants appeared to be selective in the marine taxa they used, evident by the presence of Cluster B and E assemblages. A diverse (Cluster A) assemblage was then utilized at the site at one or both of the shellmounds through the remainder of the occupancy period, including the Middle/Late Period Transition (A.D. 700–900) and Late Period Phase 1C (A.D. 900–1300), coincident with the extensive drought conditions of the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) in the San Francisco Bay area. These findings suggest the marine invertebrate resources utilized by the site occupants were not significantly affected by the persistent aridity associated with the MCA.

California↗

USGS2021

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may ‘bridge’ proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2018

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

Hawai`i↗

USGS2017

The Beringian coevolution project: Holistic collections of mammals and associated parasites reveal novel perspectives on evolutionary and environmental change in the North

The Beringian Coevolution Project (BCP), a field program underway in the high northern latitudes since 1999, has focused on building key scientific infrastructure for integrated specimen-based studies on mammals and their associated parasites. BCP has contributed new insights across temporal and spatial scales into how ancient climate and environmental change have shaped faunas, emphasizing processes of assembly, persistence, and diversification across the vast Beringian region. BCP collections also represent baseline records of biotic diversity from across the northern high latitudes at a time of accelerated environmental change. These specimens and associated data form an unmatched resource for identifying hidden diversity, interpreting past responses to climate oscillations, documenting contemporary conditions, and anticipating outcomes for complex biological systems in a regime of ecological perturbation. Because of its dual focus on hosts and parasites, the BCP record also provides a foundation for comparative analyses that can document the effects of dynamic change on the geographic distribution, transmission dynamics, and emergence of pathogens. By using specific examples from carnivores, shrews, lagomorphs, rodents and their associated parasites, we demonstrate how broad, integrated field collections provide permanent infrastructure that informs policy decisions regarding human impact and the effect of climate change on natural populations.

Arctic Science↗

USGS2015

Identifying multiple timescale rainfall controls on Mojave Desert ecohydrology using an integrated data and modeling approach for Larrea tridentata

The perennial shrub Larrea tridentata is widely successful in North American warm deserts but is also susceptible to climatic perturbations. Understanding its response to rainfall variability requires consideration of multiple timescales. We examine intra-annual to multi-year relationships using model simulations of soil moisture and vegetation growth over 50 years in the Mojave National Preserve in southeastern California (USA). Ecohydrological model parameters are conditioned on field and remote sensing data using an ensemble Kalman filter. Although no specific periodicities were detected in the rainfall record, simulated leaf-area-index exhibits multi-year dynamics that are driven by multi-year (&sim;3-years) rains, but with up to a 1-year delay in peak response. Within a multi-year period, Larrea tridentata is more sensitive to winter rains than summer. In the most active part of the root zone (above &sim;80 cm), >1-year average soil moisture drives vegetation growth, but monthly average soil moisture is controlled by root uptake. Moisture inputs reach the lower part of the root zone (below &sim;80 cm) infrequently, but once there they can persist over a year to help sustain plant growth. Parameter estimates highlight efficient plant physiological properties facilitating persistent growth and high soil hydraulic conductivity allowing deep soil moisture stores. We show that soil moisture as an ecological indicator is complicated by bidirectional interactions with vegetation that depend on timescale and depth. Under changing climate, Larrea tridentata will likely be relatively resilient to shorter-term moisture variability but will exhibit higher sensitivity to shifts in seasonal to multi-year moisture inputs.

California↗

USGS2015

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

South Dakota↗

USGS2015

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once these issues are addressed, we contend that modeling efforts will better inform and quantify ecosystem services provided by wetlands to meet needs of waterbird conservation and broader societal interests such as flood control and water quality.

Wetlands↗

USGS2012

Adaptive strategies and life history characteristics in a warming climate: salmon in the Arctic?

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada’s Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960’s. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada’s Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2014

Distribution and population genetics of walleye and sauger

Conserving genetic diversity and local adaptations are management priorities for wild populations of exploited species, which increasingly are subject to climate change, habitat loss, and pollution. These constitute growing concerns for the walleye Sander vitreus, an ecologically and economically valuable North American temperate fish with large Laurentian Great Lakes' fisheries. This study compares genetic diversity and divergence patterns across its widespread native range using mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region sequences and nine nuclear DNA microsatellite (μsat) loci, examining historic and contemporary influences. We analyze the genetic and morphological characters of a putative endemic variant– “blue pike” S. v. “glaucus” –described from Lakes Erie and Ontario, which became extinct. Walleye with turquoise-colored mucus also are evaluated, since some have questioned whether these are related to the “blue pike”.

BMC Evolutionary Biology↗

USGS2010

Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?

Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial, As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately, the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition, and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2002

Environmental setting and water-quality issues of the Mobile River Basin, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee

The Mobile River Basin is one of over 50 river basins and aquifer systems being investigated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. This basin is the sixth largest river basin in the United States, and fourth largest in terms of streamflow, encompassing parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Almost two-thirds of the 44,000-square-mile basin is located in Alabama. Extensive water resources of the Mobile River Basin are influenced by an array of natural and cultural factors. These factors impart unique and variable qualities to the streams, rivers, and aquifers providing abundant habitat to sustain the diverse aquatic life in the basin. Data from Federal, State, and local agencies provide a description of the environmental setting of the Mobile River Basin. Environmental data include natural factors such as physiography, geology, soils, climate, hydrology, ecoregions, and aquatic ecology, and human factors such as reservoirs, land use and population change, water use, and water-quality issues. Characterization of the environmental setting is useful for understanding the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of surface and ground water in the Mobile River Basin and the possible implications of that environmental setting for water quality. The Mobile River Basin encompasses parts of five physiographic provinces. Fifty-six percent of the basin lies within the East Gulf section of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province. The remaining northeastern part of the basin lies, from west to east, within the Cumberland Plateau section of the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province, the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province, the Piedmont Physiographic Province, and the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province. Based on the 1991 land-use data, about 70 percent of the basin is forested, while agriculture, including livestock (poultry, cattle, and swine), row crops (cotton, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and wheat), and pasture land accounts for about 26 percent of the study unit. Agricultural land use is concentrated along the Black Prairie Belt district of the Coastal Plain. Urban areas account for only 3 percent of the total land use; however, the areal extent of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) may indicate more urban influences. The MSAs include urban areas outside of the city boundaries and can include adjacent counties. Seven MSAs are delineated in the Mobile River Basin, including Montgomery, Mobile, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, Anniston, and Atlanta. The total population for the Mobile River Basin was about 3,673,100 in 1990. State water-quality agencies have identified numerous causes and sources of water-body impairment in the Mobile River Basin. In 1996, organic enrichment, dissolved oxygen depletion, elevated nutrient concentrations, and siltation were the most frequently cited causes of impairment, affecting the greatest number of river miles. Bacteria, acidic pH, and elevated metal concentrations also were identified as causes of impairment. The sources for impairment varied among river basins, were largely a function of land use, and were attributed primarily to municipal and industrial sources, mining, and agricultural activities.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to Present

The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions. Results from this study would be provided to the Tribe to help the Tribe develop a restoration plan for their riparian forests. We show that the riparian vegetation has largely increased overall in greenness throughout the study period (i.e., 1985 through 2021), despite periods of drought conditions. This extends to the end of our study period particularly with native vegetation in the upper watershed. However, non-native and invasive tamarisk vegetation within much of the lower watershed has shown declining trends and increasing vegetative stress. Furthermore, these areas have experienced a large increase in wildfire presence and other disturbances. Nevertheless, Tribal restoration applications have been shown to increase native vegetation plant cover, suggesting that restoration activities have been successful overall.

Arizona, New Mexico↗