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Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota

An evaluation of methods for computing annual water-quality loads

The U.S. Geological Survey publishes information on the mass, or load, of water-quality constituents transported through rivers and streams sampled as part of the operation of the National Water Quality Network (NWQN). This study evaluates methods for computing annual water-quality loads, specifically with respect to procedures currently (2019) used at sites in the NWQN. Near-daily datasets of chloride, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment were subset to determine the accuracy of various load-estimation methods, including linear interpolation, ratio estimators, and linear and weighted-regression methods. Water-quality loads are computed under different sampling strategies and at multiple sampling sites to provide a more complete evaluation of load-estimation methods. Estimation methods were less accurate when computing loads at annual rather than decadal time steps. Depending on the water-quality constituent, annual loads were within comparable accuracy thresholds 21 to 64 percent of the time relative to decadal loads. The accuracy of annual load estimates varied among water-quality constituents, sampling strategies, sampling sites, and estimation methods. Methods were most accurate when estimating chloride and decreased in accuracy when estimating total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads. Estimation methods were most likely to compute accurate annual loads when samples were collected frequently (26 samples per year) and when sampling strategies targeted high-flow conditions. For a given water-quality constituent, estimation accuracy differed substantially among sampling sites; estimates were more likely to be accurate at large rivers with less variability in concentration and (or) discharge conditions and were less likely to be accurate at smaller stream sites with more variable streamflow and (or) water-quality concentrations. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method with Kalman filtering (WRTDS_K) generally produced the most accurate annual load estimates among sampling sites and water-quality constituents. Although WRTDS_K was the most accurate generally, every estimation method evaluated had the potential to produce accurate (and inaccurate) load estimates depending on the site, constituent, and water year. Linear interpolation and ratio estimators that used samples exclusively from the year being estimated were among the best performing methods for total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite loads but were among the least accurate when estimating annual total phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads. Ratio estimation that considered samples from previous years and stratified based on streamflow conditions produced among the most accurate total phosphorus estimates but was among the least accurate for other constituents. Regression-based methods that assumed linear or quadratic relations among the logarithm of water-quality concentrations and streamflow conditions were among the least accurate methods generally, whereas regression-based methods that considered cubic relations among the logarithm of concentration and streamflow and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method were typically more accurate. Methods that adjusted daily estimates computed from regression or weighted-regression methods based on departures from sampled values, such as WRTDS_K and the composite method, improved estimate accuracy for most sites and constituents, but especially for chloride, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, and suspended-sediment estimates. Investigation of the underlying causes of estimation method bias indicated that sites and years with more variability in concentration and loading conditions, higher slopes in the relation of the logarithm of concentration and discharge, and sampling plans that underrepresented high-flow conditions generally led to less accurate load estimates. Finally, because all methods indicated the capacity to produce biased load estimates, additional work is needed to identify the capacity of new technologies, such as continuous water-quality sensors, to improve the accuracy of annual or shorter term load estimates. Based on findings in this report, the NWQN will continue to publish water-quality loads using LOADEST-based methods that consider multiple transformations of streamflow, as well as season, time, and variables indicative of historical streamflow conditions to maintain consistent methods for stakeholders. However, the NWQN also plans to begin publishing annual load estimates using the WRTDS_K method in 2020 because this method was determined to be the most accurate for a given site, constituent, and water year.

Scientific Investigations Report

Part 3: Volcano investigations on Umnak Island, 1946

Umnak Island is a dumbbell-shaped island in the eastern part of the Aleutian Islands. The island is 70 miles long and trends northeast-southwest. During 1946 volcano investigations were begun on the island and geologic mapping of most of northeastern Umnak Island was completed. Okmok Volcano, a large, broad volcanic mountain rising to altitudes of 3,000 to 3,500 feet, occupies the central portion of northeastern Umnak Island. Fort Glenn, and Army airbase, is situated on the eastern end of the island, approximately 9 miles east of Okmok Volcano. The central part of Okmok Volcano is indented by Okmok caldera, a large cliff-rimmed volcanic depression, 7%, miles in maximum diameter. The floor of the caldera is 1,500 to 2,500 feet below the caldera rim. Nine large cinder cones and many small ones lie on the caldera floor, chiefly along two arcuate zones. The caldera is drained by Crater Creek, which flows through a deep gorge cut in the northeastern wall of the caldera, and into Bering Sea. Mount Tulik (4,111 feet altitude) and Mount Idak (1,918 feet altitude) arc important centers of ancient volcanism on the flanks of Okmok Volcano. The geologic history of Okmok Volcano falls into three stages: The first includes the upbuilding of an ancient cone—Mount Okmok—to an altitude of at least 6;500 feet on the site of the present caldera; the second encompasses the destruction in a castastrophic eruption of the summit cone and the formation of the caldera; the third comprises events since the great eruption. The earliest activity at Mount Okmok probably dates hack to the late Tertiary period. A composite cone, concave-sided in profile, was built by the alternate eruption of ash, coarse pyroclastics, and basalt flows. During the late Pleistocene, volcanic activity at Mount Okmok was greatly reduced and a topography of late youth was carved on the lower slopes by streams and valley glaciers. The summit of Mount Okmok was upwarped and dikes and necks were injected into the resulting fractures. A large volcano at the site of Mount Idak was active during part of the period of upbuilding at Mount Okmok but became extinct during the middle Pleistocene. A parasitic vent, Mount Tulik, became active during the late Pleistocene and built a steep-sided cone before it became extinct, shortly before the formation of Okmok caldera. A cataclysmic eruption terminated the period of dissection at Mount Okmok, 10,000 or more years ago. Part of the summit was blown away by the explosive violence of this eruption. Nuees ardentes (glowing clouds) and mudflows deposited tuff-breccia and agglomerate in the glacial valleys; later phases of the eruption blanketed the landscape with ash. Near the end of the eruption, the remaining upper part of the volcano collapsed along arcuate fractures: large blocks subsided several thousand feet and are now concealed in the caldera Poor beneath later deposits. A large arcuate fault block which subsided less than other blocks stands above the floor in the northeastern part of the caldera. After the eruption, water collected in the caldera, forming a lake. Small but frequently active cones built islands in the lake and covered its bottom with pyroclastic debris. The lake eventually overflowed the lowest point in the rim of the caldera, and Crater Creek Gorge was carved, draining the lake and dissecting its deposits. Renewed movement along faults at the head of Crater Creek Gorge later raised a harrier which temporarily dammed the drainage and formed a second caldera lake. Readjustments among subsided blocks in the caldera floor resulted in the folding of postcaldera deposits at several localities. Much of the caldera floor has been covered by lava flows extruded from several cones since the draining of the first caldera lake. In general, however, volcanic activity seems to have declined since the great caldera-forming eruption. Seven eruptions from cones on the caldera floor have been recorded since 1817; the latest occurred in 1945. As part of the geochemical program for the study of Okmok Volcano, temperatures of fumaroles were measured and samples of the products of the volcanic activity were analyzed. Average temperatures of fumaroles at one source of the 1945 lava low dropped from 320° C. on July 19 to 90° C. on September 5. The temperatures of fumaroles associated with the crater vents on both Cones A and C ranged from 95° C. to 97" C., which is slightly below the condensation point of steam, indicating the presence of minor quantities of gases other than steam. The magmatic gases of fumaroles on Cone A consisted of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in about equal amounts. The lack of halogen acid gases in the fumaroles and the steadily dropping temperatures arc interpreted as indicating that the present quiescence of Cone A will continue for many months. Solid reaction products from areas of fumarolic activity on Cone A are sulfates of sodium, calcium, and iron. The presence of hydrogen sulfide as the dominant sulfur gas at Cone C is interpreted as indicating the dying stages of the present cycle of activity of Cone C. Thermal springs along the north base of Cone D have a total discharge of 115 cubic feet per second. Their average temperature is approximately 7° C. above the annual mean. From these figures it is calculated that about 21,000 kilogram calories per second are being given off by Cone D. The spring waters contain minute quantities of boron which is indicative of a magmatic source for a small part of the water. Hence, Cone D though quiescent is not extinct. Evidence is presented to show that most of the spring water from Cone D is meteoric in origin. Thermal waters in the southwestern part of Umnak Island at Hot Springs Cove and south of Geyser Bight contain lithium, boron, arsenic, and antimony in solution. These elements are regarded as derived from underlying magmas that are in an advanced state of crystallization and hence not likely to give rise in the near future to large-scale volcanic activity. Three portable seismographs were placed on the flanks of Okmok Volcano and were in operation during most of the period from June 1 to October 1. During this period several slight tremors and one moderate tremor, all of distant origin, were registered, but no tremors attributable to Okmok Volcano were recorded. The lack of tremor records, however, may have been due more to the insensitivity of the instruments than to the absence of tremors. Earth-current investigations were carried on during August and September by comparison of records obtained from a base station at Fort Glenn with those from a station 1 V2 miles southwest of Mount Tulik. The records obtained indicate that no difference in magnitude or direction of earth currents existed between the Fort Glenn and Mount Tulik areas. The similarity of record obtained is indicative of the absence of a disturbing factor such as a large body of live magma beneath Okmok Volcano. Future eruptions of Okmok Volcano are expected to he of mild to moderate intensity, and will he chiefly in the form of ash falls from vents inside the caldera. There would be a great menace—in the form of lava flows, nuees ardentes, and mudflows—to installations at Fort Glenn if a new center of volcanism came into existence on the east slope of Okmok Volcano. Small postcaldera cones now exposed there indicate that extra-caldera eruptions have occurred in the recent past and can be expected in the future. The possibility of another catastrophic eruption of the caldera-forming type, however, is remote. Okmok Volcano should be kept under close observation, partly because of its possible threat to Fort Glenn and partly because it is a readily accessible locale for accumulating information on details of volcanic processes, applicable to other volcanoes in the Aleutian arc and elsewhere.

Alaska

Element concentrations in growth rings of trees near an abandoned wood-preserving plant site at Jackson, Tennessee

Multielement analysis was performed on individual annual rings of trees growing at and near an abandoned wood-preserving plant site in Jackson, Tennessee, that operated from the early 1930's until 1981. Numerous organic compounds associated with the wood-preserving process have been detected in soils, ground water, and surface water within much of the site. Tree-ring investigations were conducted prior to investigations of ground water downgradient from the site to determine if trees preserved an areal and temporal record of contaminant movement into offsite areas. Increment cores were collected from trees on the abandoned plant site, in downgradient areas west and south of the site, and at two locations presumably unaffected by contamination from the site. Multielement analysis by proton-induced X-ray emission was performed on 5 to 15 individual growth rings from each of 34 trees that ranged in age from about 5 to 50 years. Concentrations of 16 elements were evaluated by analyzing average concentrations within the 1987, 1989, and 1990 rings of all trees; analyzing element-concentration trends along entire core radii; and analyzing element correlations between and among trees. Concentrations of some nutrients and trace metals were elevated in the outermost sapwood rings of some trees that grow south and southwest of the most contaminated part of the site; small trees on the main part of the site and larger trees to the west generally contained fewer rings with elevated concentrations, particularly of trace metals. Concentrations of several elements elevated in tree rings also were elevated in water samples collected from the reach of a stream that flows near the southwestern part of the site. Multielement analysis of each ring of a willow growing along the southern boundary of the site detected extremely large concentrations of chromium, nickel, and iron in rings that formed in 1986 and thereafter. Relative increases in the concentrations of these elements also were detected in a silver maple growing next to the willow, but not in another silver maple growing 150 meters farther to the west. An oak growing in the southwestern part of the study area contained large concentrations of calcium and several trace elements, and some trees south of the abandoned site contained large concentrations of phosphorus or potassium. Concentrations of trace metals and nutrients in some trees may be related to wood-preserving activities at the site and possibly to remedial efforts conducted during the early to mid 1980's.However, the possibility cannot be discounted that large concentrations of some elements are from sources other than the wood-preserving facility, or in part from flooding of the South Fork Forked Deer River.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Ground-water, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—1999

The N aquifer is the major source of water in the 5,400-square-mile area of Black Mesa in northeastern Arizona. Availability of water is an important issue in this area because of continued industrial and municipal use, a growing population, and a precipitation of only about 6 to 12 inches per year. The monitoring program in Black Mesa has been operating since 1971 and is designed to determine the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) ground-water pumping, (2) ground-water levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) ground-water chemistry. In 1999, total ground-water withdrawals were 7,110 acre-feet, industrial use was 4,210 acre-feet, and municipal use was 2,900 acre-feet. From 1998 to 1999, total withdrawals increased by 0.7 percent, industrial use increased by 4 percent, and municipal use decreased by 4 percent. From 1998 to 1999, water levels declined in 11 of 15 wells in the unconfined part of the aquifer, and the median decline was 0.7 foot. Water levels declined in 14 of 16 wells in the confined part of the aquifer, and the median decline was 1.2 feet. From the prestress period (prior to 1965) to 1999, the median water-level decline in 31 wells was 10.6 feet. Median water-level changes were 0.0 foot for 15 wells in the unconfined part of the aquifer and a decline of 45.5 feet in 16 wells in the confined part. From 1998 to 1999, discharges were measured annually at four springs. Discharges declined 30 percent and 3 percent at 2 springs, did not change at 1 spring, and increased by 11 percent at 1 spring. For the past 10 years, discharges from the four springs have fluctuated; however, an increasing or decreasing trend was not observed. Continuous records of surface-water discharge have been collected from July 1976 to 1999 at Moenkopi Wash, July 1996 to 1999 at Laguna Creek, June 1993 to 1999 at Dinnebito Wash, and April 1994 to 1999 at Polacca Wash. Median flows for November, December, January, and February of each water year are used as an index of ground-water discharge to those streams. Increasing or decreasing trends are not apparent in these median winter flows for the periods of record. In 1999, water samples were collected from 12 wells and 4 springs and analyzed for selected chemical constituents. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 91 to 630 milligrams per liter. Water samples from 10 of the wells and the 4 springs had less than 350 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. Water-chemistry data are available for nine wells and four springs from about the mid-1980s. For that time period, the data from those sites have remained fairly stable. From 1987 to 1999, concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate may have increased slightly in samples from Moenkopi School Spring.

Arizona

Strategic graphite, a survey

Strategic graphite consists of certain grades of lump and flake graphite for which the United States is largely or entirely dependent on sources abroad. Lump graphite of high purity, necessary in the manufacture of carbon brushes, is imported from Ceylon, where it occurs in vein deposits. Flake graphite, obtained from deposits consisting of graphite disseminated in schists and other metamorphic rocks, is an essential ingredient of crucibles used in the nonferrous metal industries and in the manufacture of lubricants and packings. High-quality flake graphite for these uses has been obtained mostly from Madagascar since World War I. Some flake graphite of strategic grade has been produced, however, from deposits in Texas, Alabama, and Pennsylvania. The development of the carbon-bonded crucible, which does not require coarse flake, should lessen the competitive advantage of the Madagascar producers of crucible flake. Graphite of various grades has been produced intermittently in the United States since 1644. The principal domestic deposits of flake graphite are in Texas, Alabama, Pennsylvania, and New York. Reserves of flake graphite in these four States are very large, but production has been sporadic and on the whole unprofitable since World War I, owing principally to competition from producers in Madagascar. Deposits in Madagascar are large and relatively high in content of flake graphite. Production costs are low and the flake produced is of high quality. Coarseness of flake and uniformity of the graphite products marketed are cited as major advantages of Madagascar flake. In addition, the usability of Madagascar flake for various purposes has been thoroughly demonstrated, whereas the usability of domestic flake for strategic purposes is still in question. Domestic graphite deposits are of five kinds: deposits consisting of graphite disseminated in metamorphosed siliceous sediments, deposits consisting of graphite disseminated in marble, deposits formed by thermal or dynamothermal metamorphism of coal beds or other highly carbonaceous sediments, vein deposits, and contact metasomatic deposits in marble. Only the first kind comprises deposits sufficiently large and rich in flake graphite to be significant potential sources of strategic grades of graphite. Vein deposits in several localities are known, but none is known to contain substantial reserves of graphite of strategic quality. Large resources of flake graphite exist in central Texas, in northeastern Alabama, in eastern Pennsylvania, and in the eastern Adirondack Mountains of New York. Tonnages available, compared with the tonnages of flake graphite consumed annually in the United States, are very large. There have been indications that flake graphite from Texas, Alabama, and Pennsylvania can be used in clay-graphite crucibles as a substitute for Madagascar flake, and one producer has made progress in establishing markets for his flake products as ingredients of lubricants. The tonnages of various commercial grades of graphite recoverable from various domestic deposits, however, have not been established; hence, the adequacy of domestic resources of graphite in a time of emergency is not known. The only vein deposits from which significant quantities of lump graphite have been produced are those of the Crystal Graphite mine, Beaverhead County, Mont. The deposits are fracture fillings in Precambrian gneiss and pegmatite. Known reserves in the deposits are small. In Texas, numerous flake-graphite deposits occur in the Precambrian Packsaddle schist in Llano and Burnet Counties. Graphite disseminated in certain parts of this formation ranges from extremely fine to medium grained. The principal producer has been the mine of the Southwestern Graphite Co., west of the town of Burnet. Substantial reserves of medium-grained graphite are present in the deposit mined by the company. In northeastern Alabama, flake-graphite deposits occur in the Ashland mica schist in two belts that trend northeastward across Clay, Goosa, and Chilton Counties. The northeastern belt has been the most productive. About 40 mines have been operated at one time or another, but only a few have been active during or since World War I. The deposits consist of flake graphite disseminated in certain zones or "leads" consisting of quartz-mica-feldspar schists and mica quartzite. Most of past production has come from the weathered upper parts of the deposits, but unweathered rock has been mined at several localities. Reserves of weathered rock containing 3 to 5 percent graphite are very large, and reserves of unweathered rock are even greater. Flake graphite deposits in Chester County, Pa., have been worked intermittently since about 1890. The deposits consist of medium- to coarse-grained graphite disseminated in certain belts of the Pickering gneiss. The most promising deposit is one worked in the Benjamin Franklin and the Eynon Just mines. Reserves of weathered rock containing 1.5 percent graphite are of moderate size; reserves of unweathered rock are large. In the eastern Adirondack Mountains in New York there are two principal kinds of flake-graphite deposits: contact-metasomatic deposits and those consisting of flake graphite disseminated in quartz schist. The contact-metasomatic deposits are small, irregular, and very erratic in graphite content. The deposits in quartz schist are very large, persistent, and uniform in grade. There are large reserves of schist containing 3 to 5 percent graphite, but the graphite is relatively fine grained.

Bulletin

Estimation of constituent concentrations, densities, loads, and yields in lower Kansas River, northeast Kansas, using regression models and continuous water-quality monitoring, January 2000 through December 2003

The lower Kansas River is an important source of drinking water for hundreds of thousands of people in northeast Kansas. Constituents of concern identified by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) for streams in the lower Kansas River Basin include sulfate, chloride, nutrients, atrazine, bacteria, and sediment. Real-time continuous water-quality monitors were operated at three locations along the lower Kansas River from July 1999 through September 2004 to provide in-stream measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen and to estimate concentrations for constituents of concern. Estimates of concentration and densities were combined with streamflow to calculate constituent loads and yields from January 2000 through December 2003. The Wamego monitoring site is located 44 river miles upstream from the Topeka monitoring site, which is 65 river miles upstream from the DeSoto monitoring site, which is 18 river miles upstream from where the Kansas River flows into the Missouri River. Land use in the Kansas River Basin is dominated by grassland and cropland, and streamflow is affected substantially by reservoirs. Water quality at the three monitoring sites varied with hydrologic conditions, season, and proximity to constituent sources. Nutrient and sediment concentrations and bacteria densities were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow, indicating important contributions from nonpoint sources in the drainage basin. During the study period, pH remained well above the KDHE lower criterion of 6.5 standard units at all sites in all years, but exceeded the upper criterion of 8.5 standard units annually between 2 percent of the time (Wamego in 2001) and 65 percent of the time (DeSoto in 2003). The dissolved oxygen concentration was less than the minimum aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 milligrams per liter less than 1 percent of the time at all sites. Dissolved solids, a measure of the dissolved material in water, exceeded 500 milligrams per liter about one-half of the time at the three Kansas River sites. Larger dissolved-solids concentrations upstream likely were a result of water inflow from the highly mineralized Smoky Hill River that is diluted by tributary flow as it moves downstream. Concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the three monitoring sites exceeded the ecoregion water-quality criteria suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the entire study period. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were similar at all three sites, and nutrient load increased moving from the upstream to downstream sites. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields were nearly the same from site to site indicating that nutrient sources were evenly distributed throughout the lower Kansas River Basin. About 11 percent of the total nitrogen load and 12 percent of the total phosphorus load at DeSoto during 2000-03 originated from wastewater-treatment facilities. Escherichia coli bacteria densities were largest at the middle site, Topeka. On average, 83 percent of the annual bacteria load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time, primarily in conjunction with runoff. The average annual sediment loads at the middle and downstream monitoring sites (Topeka and DeSoto) were nearly double those at the upstream site (Wamego). The average annual sediment yield was largest at Topeka. On average, 64 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time. Trapping of sediment by reservoirs located on contributing tributaries decreases transport of sediment and sediment-related constituents. The average annual suspended-sediment load in the Kansas River at DeSoto during 2000-03 was estimated at 1.66 million tons. An estimated 13 percent of this load consisted of sand-size particles, so approximately 216,000 tons of sand were transported

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of the ground-water resources of parts of Lancaster and Berks Counties, Pennsylvania

Secondary openings in bedrock are the avenues for virtually all ground-water flow in a 626-sqare-mile area in Lancaster and Berks Counties, Pennsylvania. The number, size, and interconnection of secondary openings are functions of lithology, depth, and topography. Ground water actively circulates to depths of 150 to 300 feet below land surface. Total average annual ground-water recharge for the area is 388 million gallons per day, most of which discharges to streams from local, unconfined flow systems. A digital ground-water flow model was developed to simulate unconfined flow under several different recharge and withdrawal scenarios. On the basis of lithologic and hydrologic differences, the modeled area was sub-divided into 22 hydrogeologic units. A finite-difference grid with rectangular blocks, each 2,015 by 2,332 feet, was used. The model was calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The steady-state calibration was used to determine hydraulic conductivities and stream leakage coefficients and the transient calibration was used to determine specific yields. The 22 hydrogeologic units fall into four general lithologies: Carbonate rocks, metamorphic rocks, Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and Triassic sedimentary rocks. Average hydraulic conductivity ranges from about 8.8 feet per day in carbonate units to about .5 feet per day in metamorphic units. The Stonehenge Formation (limestone) has the greatest average hydraulic conductivity--85.2 feet per day in carbonate units to about 0.11 feet per day in the greatest gaining-strem leakage coefficient--16.81 feet per day. Specific yield ranges from 0.06 to 0.09 in carbonate units, and is 0.02 to 0.015, and 0.012 in metamorphic, Paleozoic sedimentary, and Triassic sedimentary units, respectively. Transient simulations were made to determine the effects of four different combinations of natural and artificial stresses. Natural aquifer conditions (no ground-water withdrawals) and actual aquifer conditions (current ground-water withdrawals) were simulated for two years under normal seasonal and hypothetical drought (60-percent reduction in winter-spring recharge) conditions. In October, 6 months after the hypothetical drought, simulated declines in water-table altitude due to the drought occurred everywhere and ranged from a median of 3.6 feet in carbonate units to 8.7 feet in carbonate units. Simulated base flows for five major streams were reduced by 33 to 51 percent during the hypothetical drought. Also in October, maximum simulated declines in water-table altitude due to ground-water withdrawls ranged from 33 feet in carbonate units to 79 feet in Triassic sedimentary units. Simulated base flows for five major streams were reduced by the amount of ground water withdrawn. Finally, again in October, maximum simulated declines in water-table altitude due to the combination of hypothetical drought and ground-water withdrawls ranged from 38 feet in carbonate units to 109 feet in Triassic sedimentary units. Due to aquifer dewatering, simulated declines were as much as 24 feet greater than the sum of the separate simulated declines that were caused by hypothetical drought and ground-water withdrawals. Some of the greatest simulated declines were in well fields, operated by three municipalities that experienced water-supply problems during the 1980-81 drought.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Effects of Highway Road Salting on the Water Quality of Selected Streams in Chittenden County, Vermont, November 2005-2007

A study of road-deicing chloride (Cl) concentrations and loads was conducted at three streams in Chittenden County, VT, from November 2005 to 2007. This study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Vermont Agency of Transportation. The streams, Alder Brook, Allen Brook, and Mill Brook, were selected to represent different land uses in the upstream watershed, different road types and densities, and different geometric patterns of the roadway draining to the receiving stream to assess the relative contribution of and differences in state road-salt applications to stream Cl concentrations and loads. Water-quality samples were collected and specific conductance was measured continuously at paired stations upstream and downstream from State highways and related to Cl concentrations to assist in determining the effects of road-salting operations during winter maintenance on the levels of Cl in the streams. Mean concentrations of Cl ranged from 8.2 to 72 mg/L (milligrams per liter) in the water-quality samples collected at sampling stations upstream from State highway bridges and from 7.9 to 80 mg/L in those collected at sampling stations downstream of highway bridges. Mean Cl loads ranged from 1,100 to 4,090 lb/d (pounds per day) at upstream stations and from 1,110 to 4,200 lb/d at downstream stations. Estimated mean annual Cl loads ranged from 402,000 to 1,490,000 lb/yr (pounds per year) at upstream stations and from 405,000 to 1,530,000 lb/yr at downstream stations. Mean Cl concentrations in samples collected at the three paired stations were lowest at Mill Brook at VT 117 near Essex Junction, VT (7.9 mg/L) and highest at Allen Brook at VT 2A near Essex Junction, VT (80.7 mg/L). None of the monitored Cl concentrations in the water-quality samples collected at the three paired sampling stations exceeded either of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) recommended chronic and acute Cl toxicity criteria of 230 and 860 mg/L, respectively. A fourth stream site, a small tributary draining to Alder Brook between the upstream and downstream stations, was monitored from December 2006 to November 2007. This tributary collected runoff from a state highway and an interchange before flowing through a wetlands retention basin. The mean Cl concentration in water-quality samples collected at the tributary was 449 mg/L. The USEPA recommended chronic toxicity criterion of 230 mg/L was exceeded about 65 percent of the monitoring period. The USEPA recommended acute toxicity criterion of 860 mg/L was not exceeded. Estimated Cl loads below the State highway bridges exceeded loads above the bridges at all three paired stations during both years of the study. The differences in the annual loads between the upstream and downstream stations were 0.7, 3.0 and 14 percent at Mill, Allen, and Alder Brooks, respectively. Almost all of the difference (92 percent) at Alder Brook was due to the tributary. Cl applied by the State of Vermont for deicing purposes represented less than 20 percent of the annual estimated Cl load in all 3 streams below the state highways. The highest monthly Cl loads during the first year of the study were observed in January 2006 at all three stream stations because of an early snowmelt event. The highest monthly Cl loads during the second year of the study were observed in April 2007 at all three streams during spring snowmelt and were followed by decrease in Cl loading through the summer. Generally, the relation of Cl loads to runoff was similar at all three streams. In July and October 2007, loads increased slightly with an increase in runoff, indicating that Cl in the soils and groundwater may be contributing to the Cl levels during the summer and fall, well after the road-salting season. Cl loads in all three streams appear to be due primarily to sources in the watersheds upstream of the state highway bridge where road salt was applied and (or) Cl retained in soils and streambed

Scientific Investigations Report

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Scientific Investigations Report

Mapping of Florida's coastal and marine resources: Setting priorities workshop

The importance of mapping habitats and bioregions as a means to improve resource management has become increasingly clear. Large areas of the waters surrounding Florida are unmapped or incompletely mapped, possibly hindering proper management and good decisionmaking. Mapping of these ecosystems is among the top priorities identified by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council in their Annual Science Research Plan. However, lack of prioritization among the coastal and marine areas and lack of coordination of agency efforts impede efficient, cost–effective mapping. A workshop on Mapping of Florida’s Coastal and Marine Resources was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), and Southeastern Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS). The workshop was held at the USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) in St. Petersburg, FL, on February 7-8, 2007. The workshop was designed to provide State, Federal, university, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) the opportunity to discuss their existing data coverage and create a prioritization of areas for new mapping data in Florida. Specific goals of the workshop were multifold, including to: provide information to agencies on state-of-the-art technology for collecting data; inform participants of the ongoing mapping programs in waters off Florida; present the mapping needs and priorities of the State and Federal agencies and entities operating in Florida; work with State of Florida agencies to establish an overall priority for areas needing mapping; initiate discussion of a unified classification of habitat and bioregions; discuss and examine the need to standardize terminology and data collection/storage so that data, in particular habitat data, can be shared; identify opportunities for partnering and leveraging mapping efforts among agencies and entities; identify impediments and organizational gaps that hinder collection of data for mapping; seek innovative solutions to the primary obstacles identified; identify the steps needed to move mapping of Florida’s oceans and coasts forward, in preparation for a better coordinated, more cost-effective mapping program to allow State and Federal agencies to make better decisions on coastal-resource issues. Over 90 invited participants representing more than 30 State and Federal agencies, universities, NGOs, and private industries played a large role in the success of this two-day workshop. State of Florida agency participants created a ranked priority order for mapping 13 different regions around Florida. The data needed for each of the 13 priority regions were outlined. A matrix considering State and Federal priorities was created, utilizing input from all agencies. The matrix showed overlapping interests of the entities and will allow for partnering and leveraging of resources. The five most basic mapping needs were determined to be bathymetry, high-vertical resolution coastline for sea-level rise scenarios, shoreline change, subsurface geology, and benthic habitats at sufficient scale. There was a clear convergence on the need to coordinate mapping activities around the state. Suggestions for coordination included: creating a glossary of terms: a standard for specifying agency data-mapping needs; creating a geographic information officer (GIO) position or permanent organizing group to maintain communications established at this workshop and to maintain progress on the issues identified during the workshop. The person or group could develop a website, maintain a project-status matrix, develop a list of contacts, create links to legislative updates and links to funding sources; developing a web portal and one-stop/clearinghouse of data. There was general consensus on the need to adopt a single habitat classification system and a strategy to accommodate existing systems smoothly. Unresolved aspects of the systems warrant that a separate workshop would be needed to work out details. Participants recognized that the State priority list would necessarily be updated periodically. An annual review of priorities would facilitate information exchange, mapping activities updates, and re-allocation of funding among changing priorities. It was recognized that mapping of State waters would take billions of dollars and in light of tightening budgets there was need for processes that could be used to appropriate or leverage monies for mapping and reduce data-collection costs. Fourteen different avenues were explored. There was a clear consensus that the linking of public to private partnerships to support mapping was imperative, and ways to achieve this were discussed.

Florida

Ground-water resources of the Cahaba River basin in Alabama - Subarea 7 of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa river basins

Drought conditions in the 1980's focused attention on the multiple uses of the surface- and ground-water resources in the Apalachicola-Chattahooochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River basins in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. State and Federal agencies also have proposed projects that would require additional water resources and revise operating practices within the river basins. The existing and proposed water projects create conflicting demands for water by the States and emphasize the problem of water-resource allocation. This study was initiated to describe ground-water availablity in the Cahaba River basin in Alabama, Subarea 7 of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River basins, and to estimate the possible effects of increased ground-water use within the basin. Subarea 7 encompasses about 1,030 square miles in north-central Alabama. Subarea 7 encompasses parts of the Piedmont, Valley and Ridge, and Coastal Plain physiographic provinces. The Piedmont Province is underlain by a two-component aquifer system that is composed of a fractured, crystalline-rock aquifer characterized by little or no primary porosity or permeability; and the overlying regolith, which can behave as a porous-media aquifer. The Valley and Ridge Province is underlain by fracture- and solution-conduit aquifer systems, similar in some ways to those in the Piedmont Province. Fracture-conduit aquifers predominante in the well-consolidated sandstones and shales of Paleozoic age; solution-conduit aquifers dedominate in the carbonate rocks of Paleozoic age. The Coastal Plain is underlain by southward-dipping, poorly consolidated deposits of sand, gravel, and clay of fluvial and marine origin. The conceptual model described for this study qualitatively subdivides the ground-water flow system into local (shallow), intermediate, and regional (deep) flow regimes. Ground- water discharge to tributaries mainly is from local and intermediate flow regimes and varies seasonally. The regional flow regime probably approximates steady-state conditions and discharges chiefly to major drains such as the Cahaba River. Ground-water discharge to major drains originates from all flow regimes. Mean-annual ground-water discharge to streams (baseflow) is considered to approximate the long-term, average recharge to ground water. The mean-annual baseflow was estimated using an atuomated hydrograph-separation method, and represents discharge from the local, intermediate, and regional flow regimes of the ground-water flow system. Mean-annual baseflow in Georgia was estimated to be 763 cubic feet per second at Centreville, Ala., where the Cahaba River exits Subarea 7 into Subarea 8. Mean-annual baseflow represented about 48 percent of total mean-annual stream discharge for the period of record. Stream discharge for selected sites on the Cahaba River and its tributaries were compiled for the years 1941, 1954, and 1986, during which sustained droughts occurred throughout most of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River basin area. Stream discharges were assumed to be sustained entirely by baseflow during the latter periods of these droughts. Estimated baseflow near the end of these droughts averaged about 21 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow in Subarea 7 (ranged from about 16 to 25 percent for individual drought years). The potential exists for the development of ground-water resources on a regional scale throughout Subarea 7. Estimated ground-water use in 1990 was about 2 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow, and 9.7 percent of the average drought baseflow near the end of the droughts of 1941, 1954, and 1986. Because ground- water use in Subarea 7 represents a relatively minor percentage of ground- water recharge, even a large increase in ground-water use in Subarea 7 is likely to have little effect on ground-water and surface-water occurrernce in Alabama. Indications of long-term ground-water dec

Open-File Report

Ground-water resources of the Alabama River Basin in Alabama; Subarea 8 of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basins

Drought conditions in the 1980's focused attention on the multiple uses of the surface- and ground-water resources in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. State and Federal agencies also have proposed projects that would require additional water resources and revise operating practices within the river basins. The existing and proposed water projects create conflicting demands for water by the States and emphasize the problem of water-resource allocation. This study was initiated to describe ground-water availability in the Alabama River basin of Alabama, Subarea 8 of the ACF and ACT River basins, and to estimate the possible effects of increased ground-water use within the basin. Subarea 8 encompasses about 6,750 square miles in the Coastal Plain physiographic province in central and southwestern Alabama. The Alabama River extends from the juncture of the Coosa and Tallapoosa Rivers near the city of Montgomery, to its juncture with the Tombigbee River, near the town of Calvert in Washington County. Subarea 8 includes the Cahaba River basin from the physiographic 'Fall Line' at the city of Centreville in Bibb County, to its mouth in Dallas County; and the Alabama River basin from near Montgomery to the Alabama River cutoff, about 6 miles northeast of its juncture with the Tombigbee River. The study area is underlain by sedimentary deposits of Cretaceous, Tertiary, and Quaternary ages. Major aquifers underlying Subarea 8 are, from shallowest to deepest, the Coastal lowlands aquifer system, the Floridan aquifer system, the Lisbon aquifer, The Nanafalia-Clayton aquifer, the Ripley aquifer, the Eutaw aquifer, and the Tuscaloosa aquifer. The conceptual model described for this study qualitatively subdivides the ground-water flow system into local (shallow), intermediate, and regional (deep) flow regimes. Ground-water discharge to tributaries mainly is from local and intermediate flow regimes and varies seasonally. The regional flow regime probably approximates steady- state conditions and discharges chiefly to major drains such as the Alabama River, and in upstream areas, to the Cahaba River. Ground-water discharge to major drains originates from all flow regimes. Mean-annual ground-water discharge to streams (baseflow) is considered to approximate the long-term, average recharge to ground water. The mean-annual baseflow was estimated using an automated hydrograph- separation method, and represents discharge from the local, intermediate, and regional flow regimes of the ground-water flow system. Mean-annual baseflow discharging from Subarea 8 was estimated to be 20,300 cubic feet per second. Mean-annual baseflow represented about 61 percent of total mean-annual stream discharge for the period of record. Estimated and measured stream discharge for selected sites on the Alabama River and its tributaries were compiled for the years 1941, 1954, and 1986, during which sustained droughts occurred throughout most of the ACF-ACT area. Stream discharges were assumed to be sustained entirely by baseflow during the latter periods of these droughts. Estimated baseflow near the end of the individual drought years was about 17 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow at the Alabama River cutoff, the most downstream point of Subarea 8. The potential exists for the development of ground-water resources on a regional scale throughout Subarea 8. Estimated ground-water use in 1990 was less than 1 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow, and about 2.4 percent of baseflow during the droughts of 1941, 1954, and 1986. Because ground-water use in Subareas 5 and 6 represents a relatively minor percentage of ground-water recharge, even a large increase in ground-water use in Subareas 5 and 6 in Georgia probably would have little effect on the quantity of ground water and surface water in Alabama. In addition, ground-water use in Subarea 3 in Georgia probably h

Open-File Report

Ground-water resources of the Tallapoosa River basin in Georgia and Alabama - Subarea 5 of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa river basins

Drought conditions in the 1980's focused attention on the multiple uses of the surface- and ground-water resources in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACT) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. State and Federal agencies also have proposed projects that would require additional water resources and revise operating practices within the river basins. The existing and proposed water projects create conflicting demands for water by the States and emphasize the problem of water-resource allocation. This study was initiated to describe ground-water availability in the Tallapoosa River basin of Georgia and Alabama, Subarea 5 of the ACF and ACT River basins, and to estimate the possible effects of increased ground-water use within the basin. Subarea 5 encompasses about 4,675 square miles (mi2) in Georgia and Alabama and contains parts of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain physiographic provinces. The Piedmont Province is underlain by a two-component aquifer system that is composed of a fractured, crystalline-rock aquifer and the overlying porous-media regolith aquifer. The Coastal Plain is underlain by a porous-media aquifer formed from the poorly consolidated deposits of sand, gravel, and clay. The conceptual model described for this study qualitatively subdivides the ground-water flow system into local (shallow), intermediate, and regional (deep) flow regimes. Ground-water discharge to tributaries mainly is from local and intermediate flow regimes and varies seasonally. The regional flow regime probably approximates steady-state conditions and discharges chiefly to major drains such as the Tallapoosa River, and in upstream areas, also to the Little Tallapoosa River and the Tallapoosa River. Ground-water discharge to major drains originates from all flow regimes. Mean-annual ground-water discharge to steams (baseflow) is considered to approximate the long-term, average recharge to ground water. The mean-annual baseflow was estimated using an automated hydrograph- separation method, and represents discharge from the local, intermediate, and regional flow regimes of the ground- water flow system. Mean-annual baseflow in Georgia was estimated to be 534 cubic feet per second (from the headwaters to the Georgia-Alabama State line), 3,250 ft3/s in Alabama, and 3,780 ft3/s for all of Subarea 5 (at the Subarea 5-Subarea 8 boundary). Stream discharge for selected sites on the Tallapoosa River and its tributaries were compiled for the years 1941, 1954, and 1986, during which sustained droughts occurred throughout most of the ACF-ACT area. Stream discharges were assumed to be sustained entirely by baseflow during the latter periods of these droughts. Estimated stream discharges near the end of the 1941, 1954, and 1986 drought years were 48, 15, and 85 ft3/s, respectively, at the Georgia-Alabama State line; and 481 , 126, and 448 ft3/s, respectively, at the mouth of the Tallapoosa River. Estimated baseflow near the end of the individual drought years was about 9 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow in Subarea 5. The potential exists for the development of ground-water resources on a regional scale throughout Subarea 5. Estimated ground-water use in 1990 was less than 1 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow, and about 6 percent of baseflow during the droughts of 1941, 1954, and 1986. Because ground-water use in Subarea 5 represents a relatively minor percentage of ground-water recharge, even a large increase in ground-water use in Subarea 5 in one State is likely to have little effect on ground-water and surface-water occurrence in the other. Indications of long-term ground-water levels declines were not observed; however, the number and distribution of observation wells for which long-term water-level measurements are available in Subarea 5 are insufficient to draw conclusions.

Alabama, Georgia

Characterization of historical and stochastically generated climate and streamflow conditions in the Souris River Basin, United States and Canada

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Greater than average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June 2011, resulted in historically unprecedented flooding in the Souris River Basin. The severity of the 2011 flood led the United States and Canada to request a review of the operating plan for any improvements of reservoir operations and flood control measures in the basin, and the Souris River Basin Task Force was formed. The International Souris River Study Board was then formed in 2017 to carry out the recommendations of the Souris River Basin Task Force laid out in a plan of study. To support the International Souris River Study Board, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission and the International Joint Commission, used the previously developed unregulated and regulated streamflow models and data for stochastic streamflow in the Souris River Basin to characterize climate and streamflow and support selection of streamflow traces based on their characterization. Components of the original stochastic hydrology models and their outputs were used in this phase of the study to (1) characterize historical and stochastic climate and streamflow for the Souris River Basin, (2) disaggregate monthly stochastic streamflow spatially and temporally to meet the needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Reservoir System Simulation model for the Souris River Basin, and (3) discuss selection of disaggregated streamflow traces (simulations) using the characteristics of climate and streamflow. A trace is a time series of a stochastic variable such as streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, or precipitation. To characterize climate conditions, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and moisture deficit for the Souris River Basin and individual points at Rafferty, Grant Devine, and Lake Darling Reservoirs were determined annually and seasonally. The annual basin (November 1–October 31) precipitation for the 50-percent nonexceedance probability is 452 millimeters (mm). Spring (March–May) is the wettest season, followed by summer (June–August), fall (September–November), and winter (December–February). Annual moisture deficit was largest at Lake Darling Reservoir, followed by Rafferty Reservoir, and then Grant Devine Reservoir. Annual maximum monthly mean streamflow was determined for the Souris River below Rafferty Reservoir, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05NB036); Long Creek near Noonan (above Boundary Reservoir), North Dakota (USGS streamgage 05113600); Moose Mountain Creek near Oxbow, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05ND004); the Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05114000); the Des Lacs River at Foxholm, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05116500); and the Souris River above Minot, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05117500). When the seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows are evaluated in contrast to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows separated by their seasonal occurrence, summer months of annual maximum monthly mean streamflows have a higher 50-percent exceedance probability of streamflow compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, and seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer. When annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in summer are compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in spring, they are consistently higher in streamflow but occur in less than 4.2 percent of years. Evaluation of whether the annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer can be described as a separate population from annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring was outside the scope of this study, and the summer and spring annual maximum monthly mean streamflows were not tested for statistical differences in mean or variance. Further investigation of seasonal weather patterns that induce flooding could lead to a better understanding of the seasonal differences in flooding. Long-term hydrologic drought was characterized by evaluating multiyear mean streamflow. Shorter averaging periods have greater streamflow variability than longer periods and hence have a wider range of values. As the averaging period is extended to a longer period, the variability of mean streamflow decreases, and the more extreme streamflow volumes seen in shorter averaging periods cannot be sustained. Stochastic streamflow time series were disaggregated spatially and temporally for use in a HEC–ResSim model. The combination of monthly and daily stochastic streamflow data was used to select traces with qualities that could be used to test alternatives focused on water supply, summer flooding, and apportionment.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan

Discharge and sediment loads in the Boise River drainage basin, Idaho 1939-40

The Boise River project is a highly developed agricultural area comprising some 520 square miles of valley and bench lands in southwestern Idaho. Water for irrigation is obtained from the Boise River and its tributaries which are regulated by storage in Arrow Rock and Deer Flat reservoirs. Distribution of water to the farms is effected by 27 principal canals and several small farm laterals which divert directly from the river. The- New York Canal, which is the largest, not only supplies water to smaller canals and farm laterals, but also is used to fill Deer Flat Reservoir near Nampa from which water is furnished to farms in the lower valley. During the past 15 years maintenance costs in a number of those canals have increased due to deposition of sediment in them and in the river channel itself below the mouth of Moore Creek. Interest in determining the runoff and sediment loads from certain areas in the Boise River drainage basin led to an investigation by the Flood Control Coordinating Committee of the Department of Agriculture. Measurements of daily discharge and sediments loads were made by the Geological Survey at 13 stations in the drainage basin during the 18-month period ended June 30, 1940. The stations were on streams in areas having different kinds of vegetative cover and subjected to different kinds of land-use practice. Data obtained during the investigation furnish a basis for certain comparisons of runoff and sediment loads from several areas arid for several periods of time. Runoff measured at stations on the. Boise River near Twin Springs and on Moore Creek near Arrow Rock was smaller during 1939 than during 1940 and was below the average annual runoff for the period of available record. Runoff measured at the other stations on the project also was smaller during 1939 than during 1940 and probably did not exceed the average for the previous 25 years. The sediment loads measured during the spring runoff in 1939 were smaller at most stations than those measured during the spring runoff in 1940. At those stations where the flow was not affected, or only slightly affected, by upstream diversions or by placer-mining operations, the largest sadiment loads per unit of drainage area were measured in Grouse Creek during both 1939 and 1940, amounting to 3,460 and 2,490 tons per square mile, respectively, and the smallest loads per unit of drainage area were measured in Bannock Creek during 1939 and in the Boise River near Twin Springs during 1940, amounting to 14 and 83 tons per square mile, respectively. Size anaylses of a large number of samples of suspended and deposited sediments give an indication of the origin of sediments carried past some of the stations. The analyses show that most of the sediment measured at the five stations in the Moore Creek drainages basin above Idaho City consisted largely of coarse material. They show, also, that the sediment measured at the station on Moore Creek above Thorn Creek consisted almost entirely of fine material during practically the entire period of the investigation. Most of the coarse material passing the stations above Idaho City probably was retained behind the dikes or in the pools usually formed by tailings from dredging operations in the placer-mining area below Idaho City, and much of the fine material measured at the station on Moore Creek above Thorn Creek probably was contributed by placer-mining activity. During the years when the spring runoff is greater than that measured during 1939 and 1940, it is probable that the dikes and pools will be less effective in retaining coarse sediments within the placered area. Records of sediment loads measured in the New York Canal indicate that a negligible amount of sediment was deposited there during 1939, but that in 1940 from 10 to 15 percent of the total load at the gaging station consisted of coarse sediment which was later deposited on the canal bottom. Most of the fine material was doubtless carried through the canal and eventually deposited in diversion ditches and on farm land. Because the sediment carried past the station on Moore Creek above Thorn Creek consisted almost entirely of fine material, it is probable, that a considerable part of the coarse sediment carried in the New York Canal during the 1940 spring runoff period was scoured from the large bed of deposited material in the Boise River above Diversion- Dam, and that the remainder came from Grimes Creek. Arrow Rock Reservoir was not sluiced during the investigation, and it is therefore unlikely that any of the coarse sediment in the New York Canal came from the Boise River above Moore Creek during 1939 and 1940. The average dry weight of 71 samples of deposited sediments collected from several parts of the Boise River drainage basin is about 90 pounds per cubic foot. The average specific gravity of 77 samples of deposited sediments is 2.57.

Idaho

Nutrient and suspended-sediment trends, loads, and yields and development of an indicator of streamwater quality at nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, 1985-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updates information on loads of, and trends in, nutrients and sediment annually to help the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) investigators assess progress toward improving water-quality conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. CBP scientists and managers have worked since 1983 to improve water quality in the bay. In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay. The TMDL specifies nutrient and sediment load allocations that need to be achieved in the watershed to improve dissolved oxygen, water-clarity, and chlorophyll conditions in the bay. The USEPA, USGS, and state and local jurisdictions in the watershed operate a CBP nontidal water-quality monitoring network and associated database that are used to update load and trend information to help assess progress toward reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to the bay. Data collected from the CBP nontidal network were used to estimate loads and trends for two time periods: a long-term period (1985-2010) at 31 "primary" sites (with storm sampling) and a 10-year period (2001-10) at 33 primary sites and 16 "secondary" sites (without storm sampling). In addition, loads at 64 primary sites were estimated for the period 2006 to 2010. Results indicate improving flow-adjusted trends for nitrogen and phosphorus for 1985 to 2010 at most of the sites in the network. For nitrogen, 21 of the 31 sites showed downward (improving) trends, whereas 2 sites showed upward (degrading) trends, and 8 sites showed no trends. The results for phosphorus were similar: 22 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 5 sites indicated no trends. For sediment, no trend was found at 40 percent of the sites, with 10 sites showing improving trends and 8 sites showing degrading trends. The USGS, working with CBP partners, developed a new water-quality indicator that combines the results of the 10-year trend analysis with results from a greater number of sites (64 primary sites) where loads and yields of total nitrogen and phosphorus and sediment could be calculated. The new indicator shows fewer significant trends for the 10-year time period than for the long-term time period (1985-2010). For 2001-10, total nitrogen trends were downward (improving) at 14 sites and upward (degrading) at 2 sites; no trend was found at 17 sites. For total phosphorus, 12 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 17 sites showed no trend. For total sediment, most sites (21) did not exhibit a significant trend; 3 sites showed improving trends, and 10 sites showed degrading trends. Few significant trends were seen at the 16 secondary sites: improving trends for total nitrogen at 4 sites, improving trends for total phosphorus at 2 sites, and a degrading trend for sediment at 1 site. Total streamflow to the Chesapeake Bay was 20 percent higher in 2010 than in 2009 and is considered to be within the normal range of flow, whereas annual streamflow at 28 sites was greater in 2010 than in 2009. No trends in daily streamflow were detected at the 31 long-term sites. Combined loads for the farthest downstream nontidal monitoring sites (called "River Input Monitoring sites") increased 33 percent for total nitrogen, 120 percent for total phosphorus, and 330 percent for total sediment from 2009 to 2010. The large increase in phosphorus and sediment loads in 2010 was caused in large part by two large storm events that occurred during the spring in the Potomac River Basin. Yields (load per watershed area) of total nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed decreased from north to south (New York to Virginia). No spatial patterns were discernible for total phosphorus or sediment.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Ground-water resources of the lower-middle Chattahoochee River basin in Georgia and Alabama, and middle Flint River basin in Georgia - Subarea 3 of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River basins

Drought conditions in the 1980's focused attention on the multiple uses of the surface- and ground-water resources in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. State and Federal agencies also have proposed projects that would require additional water resources and revise operating practices within the river basins. The existing and proposed water projects create conflicting demands for water by the States and emphasize the problem of water-resource allocation. This study was initiated to describe ground-water availability in the lower-middle Chattahoochee River basin of Georgia and Alabama; and middle Flint River basin of Georgia, Subarea 3 of the ACF and ACT River basins, and to estimate the possible effects of increased ground-water use within the basin. Subarea 3 encompasses about 6,180 square miles (mi 2) of the Coastal Plain Province in southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. About 55 percent of the area is drained by the Chattahoochee River, with the remainder drained by the Flint River. The drainage area of the Chattahoochee River is divided almost equally between Alabama and Georgia. Subarea 3 is underlain by complexly interbedded sedimentary strata that dip gently to the southeast, underlying the Floridan aquifer system to the south. The strata comprise numerous porous-media aquifers and confining units that crop out in the northern part of Subarea 3 in generally northeast-trending bands. The conceptual model described for this study qualitatively subdivides the ground-water flow system into local (shallow), intermediate, and regional (deep) flow regimes. Ground-water discharge to tributaries mainly is from local and intermediate flow regimes and varies seasonally. The regional flow regime probably approximates steady-state conditions and discharges chiefly to major drains such as the Chattahoochee River. Ground-water discharge to major drains originates from all flow regimes. Mean-annual baseflow is about 1,618 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) in the Chattahoochee River; and about 1,812 ft 3 /s in the Flint River. Of the 1,618 ft 3 /s baseflow in the Chattahoochee, about 37 percent is discharge from Alabama and 63 percent is discharge from Georgia. Near the end of the drought of 1954, baseflow was about 579 ft 3 /s in the Chattahoochee River; and about 963 ft 3 /s in the Flint River. Of the 579 ft 3 /s drought baseflow in the Chattahoochee River, about 15 percent was from Alabama and 85 percent from Georgia. Baseflow in Subarea 3 during the drought of 1954 was about 45 percent of mean-annual baseflow. Near the end of the drought of 1986, baseflow was about 449 ft 3 /s in the Chattahoochee River and about 498 ft 3 /s in the Flint River. Of the 449 ft 3 /s baseflow in the Chattahoochee River, about 16 percent was discharge from Alabama and 84 percent was discharge from Georgia. Baseflow in Subarea 3 during the 1986 drought was about 28 percent of mean-annual baseflow. The potential exists for the development of ground-water resources on a regional scale throughout Subarea 3. Estimated ground-water use in 1990 was about 2.2 percent of the estimated mean-annual baseflow, and ranged from about 4.9 to 8.0 percent of baseflows near the end of the droughts of 1954 and 1986, respectively. Because groundwater use in Subarea 3 represents a relatively minor percentage of ground-water recharge, even a large increase in ground-water use in Subarea 3 in one State is likely to have little effect on ground-water and surface-water occurrence in the other. Indications of long-term ground-water level declines were not observed; however, the number and distribution of observation wells having long-term water-level measurements in Subarea 3 are insufficient to draw conclusions.

Alabama, Georgia