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USGS2015

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment. The analysis of storm-tide impacts focused on three distinct but related aspects of coastal flooding from Hurricane Sandy, including flooding inland along the tidal reach of the Hudson River. These aspects are (1) comparisons of peak storm-tide elevations to those of historical storms and to annual exceedance probabilities, (2) assessments of storm-surge characteristics, and (3) comparisons of maps of inundation extent that were derived from differing amounts of available storm-tide data. Most peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were greater than about 9.5 feet (ft) above North American Vertical Datum of 1988. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were compared with data for the intense nor’easter of December 11–13, 1992, and Hurricane Irene (August 27–28, 2011), which weakened to a tropical storm before arriving in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from the December 1992 nor’easter at 24 of 27 sites; most differences were greater than about 0.7 ft or 9 percent (above the historical storm tide). Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from Tropical Storm Irene at all sites; most differences were greater than about 2.5 ft or 48 percent. Data from permanent and temporary monitoring sites and HWM sites were compared with corresponding FEMA flood elevations for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy had annual exceedance probabilities less than or equal to 1 percent and (or) greater than 0.2 percent at a plurality of sites—184 of 413. Peak storm-tide elevations greater than or equal to the 0.2-percent flood elevation accounted for 81 of 413 sites. Peak storm-tide elevations less than the 10-percent flood elevation accounted for only 10 of 413 sites. Data from selected permanent monitoring sites in the USGS and NOAA networks were used to assess storm-surge magnitude associated with the peak storm tide, and magnitude and timing of the peak storm surge. Most magnitudes of the peak storm surge were greater than about 8.3 ft, and most magnitudes of the storm surge component of the peak storm tide were greater than about 7.8 ft. Timing of peak storm surge arrival with respect to local phase of tide controlled where the most extreme peak storm-tide levels and coastal flooding occurred. This finding has bearing not only for locations impacted by the highest storm tides from Hurricane Sandy, but also for those that had the greatest storm surges yet were spared the worst flooding because of fortuitous timing during this storm. Results of FEMA Hazus Program (HAZUS) flood loss analyses performed for New York counties were compared for extents of storm-tide inundation from Hurricane Sandy mapped (1) pre-storm, (2) on November 11, 2012, and (3) on February 14, 2013. The resulting depictions of estimated total building stock losses document how differing amounts of available USGS data affect the resolution and accuracy of storm-tide inundation extents. Using the most accurate results from the final (February 14, 2013) inundation extent, estimated losses range from $380 million to $5.9 billion for individual New York counties; total estimated aggregate losses are about $23 billion for all New York counties. Quality of the inundation extents used in HAZUS analyses has a substantial effect on final results. These findings can be used to inform future post-storm reconstruction planning and estimation of insurance claims.

New York↗

USGS1980

Handbook of acute toxicity of chemicals to fish and aquatic invertebrates : summaries of toxicity tests conducted at Columbia National Fisheries Research Laboratory, 1965-78

Acute toxicity is a major subject of research at Columbia National Fisheries Research Laboratory for evaluating the impact of toxic chemicals on fishery resources. The Laboratory has played a leading role in developing research technology for toxicity testing and data interpretation. In 1965-78, more than 400 chemicals were tested against a variety of invertebrates and fish species representative of both cold- and warm-water climates. The use of acute toxicity tests for assessing the potential hazard of chemical contaminants to aquatic organisms is well documented (Boyd 1957; Henderson et al. 1960; Sanders and Cope 1966; Macek and McAllister 1970). Static acute toxicity tests provide rapid and (within limits) reproducible concentration-response curves for estimating toxic effects of chemicals on aquatic organisms. These tests provide a database for determining relative toxicity of a large number of chemicals to a variety of species and for estimating acute effects of chemical spills on natural aquatic systems; they also assist in determining priority and design of additional toxicity studies. Acute toxicity tests usually provide estimates of the exposure concentration causing 50% mortality (LC50) to test organisms during a specified period of time. For certain invertebrates, the effective concentration is based on immobilization, or some other identifiable endpoint, rather than on lethality. The application of the LC50 has gained acceptance among toxicologists and is generally the most highly rated test for assessing potential adverse effects of chemical contaminants to aquatic life (Brungs and Mount 1978; American Institute for Biological Sciences 1978 a ). The literature contains numerous papers dealing with the acute toxicity of chemicals to freshwater organisms. However, there is a tremendous need for a concise compendium of toxicity data covering a large variety of chemicals and test species. This Handbook is a compilation of a large volume of acute toxicity data from the Columbia Laboratory and its field laboratories. It presents definitive acute toxicity data on 271 chemicals tested against a variety of freshwater invertebrates and fishes. The chemicals represent all major groups of pesticides, as well as numerous industrial chemicals. This compilation should serve as a useful database for the many agencies and organizations dealing with research and management programs concerned with the impact of chemicals on aquatic resources. The Columbia Laboratory has played a major role in developing currently used standard methodology for static acute toxicity testing. The use of standardized methodology greatly reduces variation in results. The data presented here have been carefully scrutinized to eliminate tests that failed to follow acceptable procedures. Handling of test organisms and procedures for static toxicity tests followed those described by Lennon and Walker (1964) and Macek and McAllister (1970), and conform well with those recommended by Brauhn and Schoettger (1975) and the Committee on Methods for Toxicity Tests with Aquatic Organisms (1975). The species of fish and invertebrates that were tested are listed in phylogenetic order in Tables 1 and 2. Fish were obtained from Federal and State hatcheries as either eggs or fry. Original stocks of invertebrates were collected and cultured from wild populations with no known source of contamination; these populations were replenished regularly. The invertebrates were cultured in the Laboratory by methods similar to those described by Sanders and Cope (1966). Test chemicals usually consisted of technical or analytical grade samples of known purity. Formulations of the chemicals were also tested when available. When purity of test chemicals was known, all calculated concentrations were based on percent active ingredients. Stock solutions were prepared immediately before each test, with commercial grade acetone as the carrier solvent. Occasionally, ethanol or dimethyl-formamide was substituted. Solvent concentrations did not exceed 0.5 mL/L in final dilution water. Test water (dilution water) was reconstituted from deionized water of at least 10 6 ohms resistivity by the addition of appropriate reagent grade chemicals (Marking 1969). Water was buffered to maintain a pH of 7.2 to 7.5, an alkalinity of 30 to 35 mg/L, and a hardness of 40 to 50 mg/L as CaCO 3 . Test water was mixed thoroughly and aerated before transfer into test chambers. Fish were acclimated to dilution water by gradually changing the water in acclimated tanks from 100% well water to 100% reconstituted water over a 1- to 3-day period at the desired testing temperature. Invertebrates were acclimated from well water to dilution water over a 4- to 6-h period. Toxicity tests were conducted under static conditions without aeration, and the organisms were not fed during acclimation or testing. Temperature of test solutions was maintained within ± 1°C of that required for a given test. Toxicity tests with fish were conducted in 18.9-liter (5-gal) wide-mouthed jars containing 15 liters of test solution. Fingerling fish weighing 0.2 to 1.5 g were tested at each concentration. Caution was taken not to exceed 0.8 g of test organisms per liter of solution. Duplicate test chambers were used to accommodate larger fish. Test chambers varied in size for invertebrates, depending on the species used; volume of test solution ranged from 0.25 to 4 liters. At least 10 organisms were exposed to each concentration for all definitive tests. At least six concentrations were used per toxicity test. The tests began upon initial exposure to the toxicant and continued for 96 h. Immobilization tests with invertebrates were conducted for only 48 h. The number of dead or affected organisms in each test chamber were recorded and the dead organisms were removed every 24 h; general observations on the condition of test organisms were also recorded at these times. Toxicity data were analyzed by a statistical method described by Litchfield and Wilcoxon (1949) to determine LC50 (theoretical estimate of the concentration lethal to 50% of the test animals) and 95% confidence intervals. This method is recommended by the American Public Health Association (1971) and by Sprague (1969) for determining median lethal concentrations. The procedure is easily modified for computing a single LC50 when replicate tests are performed.

Resource Publication↗

USGS2019

Vertical habitat use of adult Walleye conflicts with expectations from fishery-independent surveys

Stock assessments of Walleyes Sander vitreus in Lake Erie rely on a combination of suspended and bottom overnight gill‐net surveys to provide population and demographic information. However, the assumption that Walleyes undertake diel vertical migrations and become available to the suspended gill nets at night has never been validated. To understand how vertical habitat use affects the availability of Walleyes to fishery‐independent surveys, we compared individual behaviors observed by means of acoustic depth telemetry tags (20 individuals; 2013–2016) with catches in paired suspended and bottom gill‐net sets (273 paired sets; 2013–2016) used by management agencies. In contrast to our expectations and observations in other lakes, the mean depths for Walleyes most often occurred in the lower one‐half to one‐third of the water column, and at lake depths <25 m the fish tended to be close to the bottom. The relationship between fish and lake depth was dependent on year and season. At lake depths >15 m, Walleyes were found at shallower depths during stratified periods (i.e., summer) than during unstratified periods (autumn). They were also found at shallower depths in 2015 and 2016 than in 2013 and 2014. In paired autumn gill‐net surveys, (1) the overall proportion of Walleye catch was nearly equal in suspended and bottom gill nets and (2) the proportion of the catch in suspended gill nets declined with fish length. The pattern of decline was dependent on how deep the suspended net was fished and the year in which the data were collected. These results provide evidence that the suspended gill‐net surveys currently being used to assess Walleye demographics in Lake Erie are biased toward the capture small Walleyes, while bottom nets are biased toward the capture of large ones. Future telemetry investigations will be needed to understand whether these biases reflect differences in the depth of habitat between small and large Walleyes.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2025

Evaluating detection of temporal trends in long-term freshwater fisheries data to inform future monitoring efforts

Objective Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program was implemented in 2006 to track changes in freshwater fish populations and communities. As part of an evaluation of the program, this study used a simulation framework to assess trend detection for fish abundance and biomass indices and how sampling intensity (number of samples per year) and frequency (number of years) can influence detection of these trends. Methods Using count and weight data from fall electrofishing samples collected between 2006 and 2021 from 21 lakes, trends were simulated for annual mean count and weight over a 10-year period that ranged from −70% to +200%. In all, simulations were performed for seven game fish species and three management-relevant groups (large nongame, nonnative, and prey species). For sampling intensity, data were simulated with a range of sample sizes, from 10 to 40 electrofishing transects or the maximum number available for a given lake. For sampling frequency, data were simulated for different sampling schedules that included sampling 1 year followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (4–5 years of sampling in a 10-year period), sampling two consecutive years followed by 1- or 2-year breaks (6–7 years of sampling in a 10-year period), and sampling the first 5 years only. Results Simulations based on weight and count data yielded similar results, but the effect of sampling frequency and sampling schedule varied by species, management group, and lake. Trend detection was lower and more variable when mean counts and weights of fish in electrofishing samples were low. Overall, at least a 60% increase or 40% decrease over a 10-year period was typically needed for trends in mean weight and count to be detected at least 80% of the time in at least half of the lakes. Increasing sampling intensity did not substantially improve trend detection for lower-magnitude changes, but reducing sample intensity to a minimum of 10 electrofishing transects per year would have a large negative effect on trend detection in almost all lakes. Detection of trends improved as the number of years sampled increased, but ideally, sampling should be spaced throughout the entire 10-year period to capture the full magnitude of change. Sampling every year generally resulted in better trend detection and for many species and groups was the only sampling schedule that resulted in all study lakes achieving the 80% target detection level. Of the alternative schedules considered, those involving 2 years of consecutive sampling outperformed those with only 1 year of sampling followed by a 1- or 2-year break. Conclusions Relatively large changes in mean count and weight were required to detect trends over a 10-year period, but there was no clear advantage of using count or weight data for monitoring purposes. Further, study results support the current sampling intensity, but trend detection is optimized at higher mean catch and weight values. Although sampling every year is ideal, an alternative schedule involving sampling two consecutive years with 1- or 2-year breaks could be considered in certain situations. These results will be important for informing future decisions regarding Florida’s Freshwater Fisheries Long-Term Monitoring Program and other monitoring initiatives.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management.↗

USGS2021

Constraints on deep, CO2-rich degassing at arc volcanoes from solubility experiments on hydrous basaltic andesite of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska Peninsula, at 300 to 1200 MPa

The solubility of CO 2 in hydrous basaltic andesite was examined in f O2 -controlled experiments at a temperature of 1125 °C and pressures between 310–1200 MPa. Concentrations of dissolved H 2 O and CO 2 in experimental glasses were determined by ion microprobe calibrated on a subset of run glasses analyzed by high-temperature vacuum manometry. Assuming that the solubility of H 2 O in mafic melt is relatively well known, estimates of 𝑋H2Ofluid and 𝑃H2Ofluid in the saturating fluid were modeled, and by difference, values for 𝑋CO2fluid and 𝑃CO2fluid were obtained ( X CO2 ~0.5–0.9); f CO2 could be then calculated from the fluid composition, temperature, and pressure. Dissolved H 2 O over a range of 2.3–5.5 wt% had no unequivocal influence on the dissolution of CO 2 at the pressures and fluid compositions examined. For these H 2 O concentrations, dissolved CO 2 increases with f CO2 following an empirical power-law relation: dissolved CO 2 (ppmw) = 14.9−3.5+4.5 [ f CO2 (MPa)] 0.7±0.03 . The highest-pressure results plot farthest from this equation but are within its 1 standard-error uncertainty envelope. We compare our experimental data with three recent CO 2 -H 2 O solubility models: Papale et al. (2006) ; Iacono-Marziano et al. (2012) ; and Ghiorso and Gualda (2015) . The Papale et al. (2006) and Iacono-Marizano et al. (2012) models give similar results, both over-predicting the solubility of CO 2 in a melt of the Pavlof basaltic andesite composition across the f CO2 range, whereas the Ghiorso and Gualda (2015) model under-predicts CO 2 solubility. All three solubility models would indicate a strong enhancement of CO 2 solubility with increasing dissolved H 2 O not apparent in our results. We also examine our results in the context of previous high-pressure CO 2 solubility experiments on basaltic melts. Dissolved CO 2 correlates positively with mole fraction (Na+K+Ca)/Al across a compositional spectrum of trachybasalt-alkali basalt-tholeiite-icelandite-basaltic andesite. Shortcomings of current solubility models for a widespread arc magma type indicate that our understanding of degassing in the deep crust and uppermost mantle remains semi-quantitative. Experimental studies systematically varying concentrations of melt components (Mg, Ca, Na, K, Al, Si) may be necessary to identify solubility reactions, quantify their equilibrium constants, and thereby build an accurate and generally applicable solubility model.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Classifying plant communities in the North American Coastal Plain with PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral imagery and the spectral mixture residual

The effort to map terrestrial biodiversity, in recent years limited mostly to the use of broadband multispectral remote sensing at decameter scales, can be greatly enhanced by harnessing hyperspectral imagery. Interpretation of hyperspectral imagery may be aided by the Mixture Residual (MR) spectral preprocessing transformation. MR integrates the benefits of spectral mixture analysis with the absorption peak-enhancing characteristics of continuum removal. MR characterizes each pixel as a linear combination of generic end-members estimating the spectral continuum, from which the residual of each wavelength is computed and treated as a source of additional information. Using Hyperspectral Precursor of the Application Mission (PRISMA) imagery, we tested the ability of MR-transformed reflectance as compared to untransformed surface reflectance (SR) to map plant associations and land cover using ground truthing and random forest classifications across four landscapes within the North American Coastal Plain. We used a forward stepwise selection algorithm to choose bands for each classification and subsequently compared these between SR and MR. Our MR classifications distinguished land cover with 5% greater balanced accuracy on average than the SR-based classifications across all four landscapes. The MR-based classification that integrated data from all landscapes into a unified model encompassing all 21 land cover types achieved a 76% average balanced accuracy over three iterations. Generally, MR utilized the near-infrared region to a greater degree than SR while deemphasizing the green peak. Based on our results, MR improves the accuracy of mapping terrestrial biodiversity, likely extending to other current and planned satellite hyperspectral missions.

JGR Biogeosciences↗

USGS2012

Seismic refraction analysis: the path forward

Seismic Refraction Methods: Unleashing the Potential and Understanding the Limitations; Tucson, Arizona, 29 March 2012 A workshop focused on seismic refraction methods took place on 29 May 2012, associated with the 2012 Symposium on the Application of Geophysics to Engineering and Environmental Problems. This workshop was convened to assess the current state of the science and discuss paths forward, with a primary focus on near-surface problems but with an eye on all applications. The agenda included talks on these topics from a number of experts interspersed with discussion and a dedicated discussion period to finish the day. Discussion proved lively at times, and workshop participants delved into many topics central to seismic refraction work.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2011

Survival of migrating Atlantic salmon smolts through the Penobscot River, Maine: A pre-restoration assessment

Survival, distribution, and behavior of hatchery ( n = 493) and naturally reared ( n = 133) smolts of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar migrating through the Penobscot River and estuary in Maine were evaluated with acoustic telemetry in 2005 and 2006. Survival and use of a secondary migration path (the Stillwater Branch) were estimated with a multistate mark–recapture model. Higher rates of mortality per kilometer (range = 0.01–0.22) were observed near release sites and within reaches that contained three particular dams: Howland, West Enfield, and Milford dams. Estimated total survival of tagged hatchery smolts through entire individual reaches containing those dams ranged from 0.52 ( 0.18) to 0.94 ( 0.09), whereas survival through most of the reaches without dams exceeded 0.95. Of those smolts that survived to the Penobscot River–Stillwater Branch split at Marsh Island, most (≥74%) remained in the main stem around Marsh Island, where they experienced lower survival than fish that used the Stillwater Branch. Movement rates of hatchery-reared smolts were significantly lower through reaches containing dams than through reaches that lacked dams. Smolts arriving at dams during the day experienced longer delays than smolts arriving at night. Planned removal of two dams in this system is expected to enhance the passage of smolts through the main-stem corridor. However, the dams currently scheduled for removal (Great Works and Veazie dams) had less influence on smolt survival than some of the dams that will remain. This case study shows that by examining prerestoration migration dynamics throughout entire river systems rather than just in the vicinity of particular dams, tracking studies can help prioritize restoration efforts or predict the costs and benefits of future hydrosystem changes.

Maine↗

USGS2008

Management concerns about known and potential impacts of lead use in shooting and in fishing activities

We present a summary of the technical review, jointly requested by the American Fisheries Society and The Wildlife Society, addressing the hazards to wildlife resulting from lead objects or fragments introduced into aquatic and terrestrial environments from the use of ammunition and fishing tackle. Impacts from lead are well documented in humans, as well as in terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Concern about impacts from lead ammunition and fishing tackle has resulted in the development of non-lead alternatives, educational campaigns, and regulations to restrict their use. This article discusses the general biological impacts of lead exposure from fishing and shooting activities to fish, wildlife, and humans; summarizes existing and proposed regulations to reduce lead exposure to biota; reviews alternatives to lead materials that are currently available for fishing; and outlines options for further actions to reduce wildlife and human exposure to lead from fishing activities.

Fisheries↗

USGS2010

Reclaiming freshwater sustainability in the Cadillac Desert

Increasing human appropriation of freshwater resources presents a tangible limit to the sustainability of cities, agriculture, and ecosystems in the western United States. Marc Reisner tackles this theme in his 1986 classic Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water . Reisner's analysis paints a portrait of region-wide hydrologic dysfunction in the western United States, suggesting that the storage capacity of reservoirs will be impaired by sediment infilling, croplands will be rendered infertile by salt, and water scarcity will pit growing desert cities against agribusiness in the face of dwindling water resources. Here we evaluate these claims using the best available data and scientific tools. Our analysis provides strong scientific support for many of Reisner's claims, except the notion that reservoir storage is imminently threatened by sediment. More broadly, we estimate that the equivalent of nearly 76% of streamflow in the Cadillac Desert region is currently appropriated by humans, and this figure could rise to nearly 86% under a doubling of the region's population. Thus, Reisner's incisive journalism led him to the same conclusions as those rendered by copious data, modern scientific tools, and the application of a more genuine scientific method. We close with a prospectus for reclaiming freshwater sustainability in the Cadillac Desert, including a suite of recommendations for reducing region-wide human appropriation of streamflow to a target level of 60%.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2018

Sediment fingerprinting to delineate sources of sediment in the agricultural and forested Smith Creek Watershed, Virginia, USA

The sediment fingerprinting approach was used to apportion fine‐grained sediment to cropland, pasture, forests, and streambanks in the agricultural and forested Smith Creek, watershed, Virginia. Smith Creek is a showcase study area in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, where management actions to reduce nutrients and sediment are being monitored. Analyses of suspended sediment at the downstream and upstream sampling sites indicated streambanks were the major source of sediment (76% downstream and 70% upstream). Current management strategies proposed to reduce sediment loadings for Smith Creek do not target streambanks as a source of sediment, whereas the results of this study indicate that management strategies to reduce sediment loads in Smith Creek may be effective if directed toward managing streambank erosion. The results of this study also highlight the utility of sediment fingerprinting as a management tool to identify sediment sources.

Virginia↗

USGS2007

DIN retention-transport through four hydrologically connected zones in a headwater catchment of the Upper Mississippi River

Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) retention-transport through a headwater catchment was synthesized from studies encompassing four distinct hydrologic zones of the Shingobee River Headwaters near the origin of the Mississippi River. The hydrologic zones included: (1) hillslope ground water (ridge to bankside riparian); (2) alluvial riparian ground water; (3) ground water discharged through subchannel sediments (hyporheic zone); and (4) channel surface water. During subsurface hillslope transport through Zone 1, DIN, primarily nitrate, decreased from ∼3 mg-N/l to <0.1 mg-N/l. Ambient seasonal nitrate:chloride ratios in hillslope flow paths indicated both dilution and biotic processing caused nitrate loss. Biologically available organic carbon controlled biotic nitrate retention during hillslope transport. In the alluvial riparian zone (Zone 2) biologically available organic carbon controlled nitrate depletion although processing of both ambient and amended nitrate was faster during the summer than winter. In the hyporheic zone (Zone 3) and stream surface water (Zone 4) DIN retention was primarily controlled by temperature. Perfusion core studies using hyporheic sediment indicated sufficient organic carbon in bed sediments to retain ground water DIN via coupled nitrification-denitrification. Numerical simulations of seasonal hyporheic sediment nitrification-denitrification rates from perfusion cores adequately predicted surface water ammonium but not nitrate when compared to 5 years of monthly field data (1989-93). Mass balance studies in stream surface water indicated proportionally higher summer than winter N retention. Watershed DIN retention was effective during summer under the current land use of intermittently grazed pasture. However, more intensive land use such as row crop agriculture would decrease nitrate retention efficiency and increase loads to surface water. Understanding DIN retention capacity throughout the system, including special channel features such as sloughs, wetlands and floodplains that provide surface water-ground water connectivity, will be required to develop effective nitrate management strategies.

Minnesota↗

USGS2004

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occuning within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also requires that at least two-thirds of the target region be covered by the monitoring program. We recommend that the standard be achieved for species' entire ranges or for any area one-third the size of the temperate portions of Canada and the United States, whichever is smaller. We applied our approach to North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. At present, potential annual bias for the BBS is estimated at ??0.008. Further, the BBS achieves the monitoring standard for only about 42% of landbirds for which the BBS is considered the most effective monitoring approach. Achieving the proposed monitoring target for ???80% of these species would require increasing the number of BBS - or similar survey - routes by several-fold, a goal that probably is impractical. We suggest several methods for reducing potential bias and argue that if our methods are implemented, potential bias would fall to ??0.003. The required number of BBS or similar routes would then be 5,106, about 40% more than in the current BBS program. Most of the needed increases are in 15 states or provinces. Developing a comprehensive land-bird monitoring program will require increased support for coordination of the BBS (currently 2 people) and new programs for species that are poorly covered at present. Our results provide a quantitative goal for long-term land-bird monitoring and identify the sample sizes needed, within each state and province, to achieve the monitoring goal for most of the roughly 300 landbird species that are well suited to monitoring with the BBS and similar surveys.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1983

Organochlorine pesticides and PCB's: A continuing problem for the 1980s

In general. decreases in OC contamination in North America are unmistakable. This is documented by the NPMP. but. more importantly. it is borne out by improvements in the reproduction and population status of the brown pelican. bald eagle, peregrine falcon, and osprey. However, some OC contamination still persists, and several species, particularly predatory birds and insectivorous bats, continue to be vulnerable. Current OC problems in North America result from present and past usage and from industrial contamination. In addition, some studies suggest that some migrant bird species that winter south of the U.S. border are exposed to higher levels of OC pesticide than non-migrants. However, heavy OC pesticide contamination is known to exist in Arizona, New Mexico, and in southern California where migratory birds might stop during migration. At this time, we do not have the information to assess specifically the sources of contamination for most migrant species. From the number of recent OC problems identified in North America, it is apparent that OC's are not confined to the past and that we must continue to monitor and study OC's during this decade. However, current administrative, management, and research priorities are being directed toward the search for potential impacts of newer pesticides, air pollution. industrial waste, and other contaminants. Although it is necessary to build a body of scientific data on these types of contaminants, we feel that we cannot neglect continued work on OC's for which harmful effects impacting our wildlife resources are already known.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na↗

USGS2026

Biome-scale spatial patterns of avian abundance reveal proactive conservation opportunities in North American grasslands

North American grassland birds have experienced steeper population declines than any other avian guild, yet conservation efforts remain largely reactive and fragmented. We used nearly four decades of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to identify biome-scale spatial patterns (clustering) of grassland bird abundance for the Great Plains. Our results reveal an ecological core in the north-central Plains where community-level abundance is either increasing by >100% or remains high and stable, providing a strategic roadmap for a “Defend the Core” conservation approach. This approach flips the script from reactive triage centered on isolated population fragments to a proactive strategy of maintaining large-scale ecosystem integrity. Conversely, we found that population losses are more spatially clustered than wins, reflecting the relentless, one-way movement of woody encroachment and agricultural conversion. This asymmetry supports prioritizing intact landscapes, as current restoration rates are often outpaced by the scale of habitat loss. Notably, we found that community-level spatial clustering is a more robust indicator of biome condition than trends of individual flagship species, suggesting that managing for ecosystem integrity provides a more effective multi-species umbrella. Given our results, there is an opportunity for operationalizing a Great Plains Conservation Design that is ecosystem-centric and rooted in the sustainability of the private-land cattle production that maintains these open spaces. By leveraging avian abundance as a biological sensor, managers and producers can deploy a shared vision that matches the spatial scale of the threats, moving from reactive triage to proactive defense of core working grasslands in North America.

Great Plains biome↗

USGS2011

Phylogenetic and ecological characteristics associated with thiaminase activity in Laurentian Great Lakes fishes

Thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) causes mortality and sublethal effects in Great Lakes salmonines and results from low concentrations of egg thiamine that are thought to be caused by thiaminolytic enzymes (i.e., thiaminase) present in the diet. This complex has the potential to undermine efforts to restore lake trout Salvelinus namaycush and severely restrict salmonid production in the Great Lakes. Although thiaminase has been found in a variety of Great Lakes fishes, the ultimate source of thiaminase in Great Lakes fishes is currently unknown. We used logistic regression analysis to investigate relationships between thiaminase activity and phylogenetic or ecological characteristics of 39 Great Lakes fish species. The taxonomically more ancestral species were more likely to show thiaminase activity than the more derived species. Species that feed at lower trophic levels and occupy benthic habitats also appeared to be more likely to show thiaminase activity; these variables were correlated with taxonomy, which was the most important predictor of thiaminase activity. Further analyses of the relationship between quantitative measures of thiaminase activity and ecological characteristics of Great Lakes fish species would provide greater insight into potential sources and pathways of thiaminase in Great Lakes food webs. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2022

Reassessing perennial cover as a driver of duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region

Conservation plans designed to sustain North American duck populations prominently feature a key hypothesis stating that the amount of the landscape in perennial cover surrounding upland duck nests positively influences nest survival rates. Recent conflicting research testing this hypothesis creates ambiguity regarding which management actions to pursue and where to prioritize conservation delivery. We compared existing models and new formulations of existing models explaining spatiotemporal variation in nest survival using independent data documenting the fate of >20,000 duck nests within the Drift Prairie, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau physiographic regions of the United States Prairie Pothole Region during 2002–2018. Our results suggest an inconsistent relationship between perennial cover and survival of upland duck nests, which depended upon physiographic region and current and time-lagged landscape and environmental conditions. The magnitude and direction of how perennial cover correlated with daily nest survival depended on its dominance as a landcover type. A positive relationship existed when perennial cover was a minor component of landcover in all physiographic regions (<30% of a 10.4-km 2 area) and, in the Drift Prairie and Prairie Coteau, when perennial cover was the dominant landcover type (>60%). A constant or negative relationship was predicted at locations of about 30–60% perennial cover. Additionally, environmental conditions (i.e., density of wetlands and estimated gross primary productivity in the previous year) moderated or enhanced the effect of perennial cover on nest survival, depending on physiographic region. Our finding of inconsistency in the relationship between perennial cover and nest survival contradicts the conservation premise that nest survival universally increases linearly when uplands are converted to perennial cover. Promoting policies and management actions designed to increase perennial cover can be expected to be situationally but not consistently associated with higher survival of upland duck nests.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Evaluating the central–marginal hypothesis: Introgression and genetic variation at the trailing edge of Quercus bicolor

The central–marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation in range-edge populations due to ecological marginality and limited gene flow. Deviations from this pattern, however, can result from historical demographic processes, variation in reproductive strategies or interspecific hybridization. The genus Quercus , known for hybridization and long-distance pollination, offers an excellent model to examine the spatial patterns of genetic diversity, structure and introgression across species distributions. Here, we investigate these dynamics in Quercus bicolor Willd., a widespread eastern North American oak. Using RADseq, we genotyped 142 individuals from 12 sites at the fragmented trailing range edge and nine sites from the range core. To detect introgression, we incorporated reference data from six sympatric white oak species. We reveal extensive introgression, particularly from Q. lyrata Walt., in nearly all southern edge populations, but none in core populations despite sympatry with closely related congeners. Southern populations also showed increased genetic structure and differentiation, but not reduced diversity or increased inbreeding, even when only examining non-admixed individuals. Regression analyses reveal relationships between introgressed ancestry and heterozygosity, inbreeding and differentiation, indicating that introgression may buffer range-edge populations against genetic erosion by introducing novel alleles. Hindcast, current and forecast ecological niche models demonstrate temporally changing degrees of overlap between the geographic range of Q. lyrata and Q. bicolor and suggest higher hybridization potential in the future. These findings offer mixed support for the CMH while underscoring the evolutionary relevance of introgression in shaping genetic landscapes at range margins with significant implications for conservation.

Molecular Ecology↗