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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2026

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Large magnitude snow avalanches (destructive size ≥ D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches during a two-week period. Nearly 200 of these avalanches were size D4 or larger with at least three D5 avalanches. However, placing this 2019 large magnitude avalanche cycle in historic context requires data prior to the instrumental record. Here, we paired tree disturbance data from dendrochronology (1698 to 2020) with meteorological data from the modeled and instrumental record (1901 to 2020) to understand the frequency and climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche cycles. The extensive number of downed trees from the 2019 avalanche cycle allowed us to collect 1,188 cross-sections and cores from 1023 individual trees within 24 avalanche paths across the state. From these samples we identified 4135 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We employed a strategic nested sampling design to spatially aggregate avalanche frequency from individual avalanche paths, to counties, to three major sub-regions (i.e., north, central, and south), and across the entire region (i.e., state of Colorado). Over a period spanning more than three centuries (1698 to 2020), we identified 76 avalanche years within 24 individual avalanche paths. Large magnitude avalanche event frequency varied across paths and sub-regions with several notable region-wide avalanche cycles. Both tree-ring and historical written records highlighted 1899 as a year with widespread and large magnitude avalanche activity similar to the March 2019 avalanche cycle. Since the early-20th century (1900 to 2020) regional avalanche probability declined significantly in parallel with decreasing snowpack throughout Colorado. Similarly, dominant avalanche regimes shifted from large magnitude regional cycles driven by above average snowfall years over most of the record, to regional avalanche cycles occurring more commonly in average to low snow years since 1988. In recent decades, a lack of December precipitation and above average March precipitation characterized years with regional large magnitude avalanche activity. Even with declining snow water equivalent, truly extreme regional large magnitude avalanche cycles remain possible – as demonstrated by the 2019 cycle. This underscores that rare but high-impact events are not eliminated by long-term trends. Understanding the changing snow and weather drivers and subsequent behavior of large magnitude avalanche cycles across multiple spatial scales may improve avalanche forecasting and the products and mitigations strategies developed by structural engineers to mitigate avalanche danger. This can decrease the avalanche risk to the public and improve infrastructure design in avalanche terrain.

Colorado↗

USGS2002

Book review: Bird census techniques, Second edition

Conservation concerns, federal mandates to monitor birds, and citizen science programs have spawned a variety of surveys that collect information on bird populations. Unfortunately, all too frequently these surveys are poorly designed and use inappropriate counting methods. Some of the flawed approaches reflect a lack of understanding of statistical design; many ornithologists simply are not aware that many of our most entrenched counting methods (such as point counts) cannot appropriately be used in studies that compare densities of birds over space and time. It is likely that most of the readers of The Condor have participated in a bird population survey that has been criticized for poor sampling methods. For example, North American readers may be surprised to read in Bird Census Techniques that the North American Breeding Bird Survey 'is seriously flawed in its design,' and that 'Analysis of trends is impossible from points that are positioned along roads' (p. 109). Our conservation efforts are at risk if we do not acknowledge these concerns and improve our survey designs. Other surveys suffer from a lack of focus. In Bird Census Techniques, the authors emphasize that all surveys require clear statements of objectives and an understanding of appropriate survey designs to meet their objectives. Too often, we view survey design as the realm of ornithologists who know the life histories and logistical issues relevant to counting birds. This view reflects pure hubris: survey design is a collaboration between ornithologists, statisticians, and managers, in which goals based on management needs are met by applying statistical principles for design to the biological context of the species of interest. Poor survey design is often due to exclusion of some of these partners from survey development. Because ornithologists are too frequently unaware of these issues, books such as Bird Census Techniques take on added importance as manuals for educating ornithologists about the relevance of survey design and methods and the often subtle interdisciplinary nature of surveys. Review info: Bird Census Techniques, Second Edition. By Colin J. Bibby, Neil D. Burgess, David A. Hill, and Simon H. Mustoe. 2000. Academic Press, London, UK. xvii 1 302 pp. ISBN 0- 12-095831-7.

Condor↗

USGS2003

Temporal and spatial distributions of contaminants in sediments of Santa Monica Bay, California

Contaminant inputs from wastewater discharge, a major source of contamination to Santa Monica Bay (SMB), have declined drastically during the last three decades as a result of improved treatment processes and better source control. To assess the concomitant temporal changes in the SMB sediments, a study was initiated in June 1997, in which 25 box cores were collected using a stratified random sampling design. Five sediment strata corresponding to the time intervals of 1890-1920, 1932-1963, 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997 were identified using 210Pb dating techniques. Samples from each stratum were analyzed for metals, 1,1,1-Trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) and its metabolites (DDTs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and total organic carbon (TOC). Samples from the 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997 strata were also analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and linear alkylbenzenes (LABs). Sediment metal concentrations increased from 1890-1979 and were similar during the time intervals of 1965-1979, 1979-1989, and 1989-1997, although the mass emissions of trace metals from sewage inputs declined substantially during the same time period. Trace organic contamination in SMB was generally highest in sediments corresponding to deposition during the years of 1965-1979 or 1979-1989 and showed a decline in concentration in the 1989-1997 stratum. Temporal trends of contamination were greatest in sediments collected from areas near the Hyperion Treatment Plant (HTP) outfall system and on the slope of Redondo Canyon. The highest contaminant concentrations were present in sediments near the HTP 7-mile outfall in the 1965-1979 stratum. Elevated trace metal and organic concentrations were still present in the 1989-1997 stratum of most stations, suggesting that sediment contaminants have moved vertically in the sediment column since sludge discharges from the 7-mile outfall (a dominant source of contamination to the bay) ceased in 1987. The widespread distributions of DDTs and PCBs in SMB and highly confined distribution of LABs around the HTP outfall system were indicative of a dispersal mechanism remobilizing historically deposited contaminants to areas relatively remote from the point of discharge. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine Environmental Research↗

USGS2008

Updated radiometric calibration for the Landsat-5 thematic mapper reflective bands

The Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) has been the workhorse of the Landsat system. Launched in 1984, it continues collecting data through the time frame of this paper. Thus, it provides an invaluable link to the past history of the land features of the Earth's surface, and it becomes imperative to provide an accurate radiometric calibration of the reflective bands to the user community. Previous calibration has been based on information obtained from prelaunch, the onboard calibrator, vicarious calibration attempts, and cross-calibration with Landsat-7. Currently, additional data sources are available to improve this calibration. Specifically, improvements in vicarious calibration methods and development of the use of pseudoinvariant sites for trending provide two additional independent calibration sources. The use of these additional estimates has resulted in a consistent calibration approach that ties together all of the available calibration data sources. Results from this analysis indicate a simple exponential, or a constant model may be used for all bands throughout the lifetime of Landsat-5 TM. Where previously time constants for the exponential models were approximately one year, the updated model has significantly longer time constants in bands 1-3. In contrast, bands 4, 5, and 7 are shown to be best modeled by a constant. The models proposed in this paper indicate calibration knowledge of 5% or better early in life, decreasing to nearly 2% later in life. These models have been implemented at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and are the default calibration used for all Landsat TM data now distributed through EROS. ?? 2008 IEEE.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1993

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene geomagnetic paleointensity on Hawaii

Geomagnetic paleointensity determinations from radiocarbon-dated lava flows on the island of Hawaii provide an estimate of broad trends in paleointensity for Holocene time and offer a glimpse of intensity variations near the end of the last glacial period. When the data from Hawaii are compared with others worldwide, the intensity of the geomagnetic field seems to have been reduced from the Holocene average by about 35 percent between 45,000 and 10,000 years ago. A long-term reduction of this magnitude is compatible with reported increases in the production rate of cosmogenic nuclides during the same interval.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1984

Paleogene geology and chronology of southwestern Umnak Island, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

The rocks of southwestern Umnak Island (Nikolski area) consist mainly of a slightly deformed marine sedimentary sequence intruded by hypabyssal quartz diorite sills and small plutons. Laminated and thin-bedded argillaceous and tuffaceous mudstone and siltstone reflect volcanic arc sedimentation from late Eocene to early Oligocene time. Zeolite facies minerals formed during diagenesis include heulandite, analcime, quartz, chlorite, and smectite. Radiometric dates from sill rock and plutons yield apparent ages of about 30 Ma, i.e, middle Oligocene. Chemical data from igneous rocks exhibit calc-alkaline and tholeiitic volcanic arc differentiation trends. Dikes of pyroxene basalt yield K/Ar apparent ages as old at 17 Ma, and a columnar-jointed plug of pyroxene basalt is as young as 1 Ma. The fossil ages and radiometric dates from southwestern Umnak Island are similar to those reported from other central and eastern Aleutian islands, and indicate uniformity in the chronology and tectonic development of the archipelago during the Paleogene. Paleomagnetic data suggest possible northward movement but remain equivocal and more work is indicated.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

The gulf surgeon, Acanthurus randalli, a junior synonym of the ocean surgeon, Acanthurus bahianus (teleostei: Acanthuridae)

We compared 62 specimens, 48-126.5 mm standard length, of Acanthurus bahianus from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with 95 specimens from other localities to determine if the distinguishing characters in the original description of the Gulf of Mexico endemic surgeonfish Acanthurus randalli were valid. No color pattern or meristic differences were found, and the only measurement that allowed distinction (91% percent concordance) was the shallower caudal concavity of northeastern Gulf of Mexico specimens. Acanthurus chirurgus from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico also have shallower caudal concavities (93.7% percent concordance) than do conspecifics from other areas, suggesting that this trend may be correlated with some unknown environmental influence. Considering the extended planktonic larval dispersal capabilities of Atlantic surgeonfishes, and that the single divergent morphological character state is also exhibited in a sympatric northeastern Gulf of Mexico population of A. chirurgus , recognition of A. randalli is untenable, and the name is considered a junior synonym of A. bahianus . An identification key to western Atlantic species of Acanthurus that incorporates the results of this study is given.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS1994

Galileo Photometry of Asteroid 951 Gaspra

Galileo images of Gaspra make it possible for the first time to determine a main-belt asteroid's photometric properties accurately by providing surface-resolved coverage over a wide range of incidence and emission angles and by extending the phase angle coverage to phases not observable from Earth. We combine Earth-based telescopic photometry over phase angles 2° ≤ α ≤ 25° with Galileo whole-disk and disk-resolved data at 33° ≤ α ≤ 51° to derive average global photometric properties in terms of Hapke's photometric model. The microscopic texture and particle phase-function behavior of Gaspra's surface are remarkably like those of other airless rocky bodies such as the Moon. The macroscopic surface roughness parameter, θ̄ = 29°, is slightly larger than that reported for typical lunar materials. The particle single scattering albedo, ώ 0 = 0.36 ± 0.07, is significantly larger than for lunar materials, and the opposition surge amplitude, B 0 = 1.63 ± 0.07, is correspondingly smaller. We determine a visual geometric albedo p v = 0.22 ± 0.06 for Gaspra, in close agreement with p v = 0.22 ± 0.03 estimated from Earth-based observations. Gaspra's phase integral is 0.47, and the bolometric Bond albedo is estimated to be 0.12 ± 0.03. An albedo map derived by correcting Galileo images with our average global photometric function reveals subdued albedo contrasts of ±10% or less over Gaspra's northern hemisphere. Several independent classification algorithms confirm the subtle spectral heterogeneity reported earlier (S. Mottola, M. DiMartino, M. Gonano-Beurer, H. Hoffman, and G. Neukum, 1993, Asteroids, Comets, Meteors, pp. 421-424; M. J. S. Belton et al ., 1992, Science 257, 1647-1652). Whole-disk colors (0.41 ≤ λ ≤ 0.99 μm) vary systematically with longitude by about ±5%, but color differences as large as 30% occur locally. Colors vary continuously between end-member materials whose areal distribution correlates with regional topography. Infrared: violet (0.99:0.41-μm) color ratios on Gaspra are strongly correlated with local elevation, being largest at lower elevations and smaller at higher elevations. No correlation was detected between elevation and the green:violet (0.56:0.41-μm) color ratio. Bright materials with a strong 1-μm absorption occur primarily in association with craters along ridges, while darker materials with 30% weaker 1-μm signatures occur downslope. The variations of color and albedo cannot be easily explained by grain-size effects alone or by differences in photometric geometry. The trends observed are consistent with those revealed by laboratory studies of the effects of comminution, glass formation, and segregation of metal from silicate components in chondritic meteorites and also in some silicate mixtures. The relative importance of these various processes on Gaspra remains to be determined.

Icarus↗

USGS2015

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ 18 O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO 2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ 18 O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Texas↗

USGS2019

Mercury source changes and food web shifts alter contamination signatures of predatory fish from Lake Michigan

To understand the impact reduced mercury (Hg) loading and invasive species have had on methylmercury bioaccumulation in predator fish of Lake Michigan, we reconstructed bioaccumulation trends from a fish archive (1978 to 2012). By measuring fish Hg stable isotope ratios, we related temporal changes in Hg concentrations to varying Hg sources. Additionally, dietary tracers were necessary to identify food web influences. Through combined Hg, C, and N stable isotopic analyses, we were able to differentiate between a shift in Hg sources to fish and periods when energetic transitions (from dreissenid mussels) led to the assimilation of contrasting Hg pools (2000 to present). In the late 1980s, lake trout δ 202 Hg increased (0.4‰) from regulatory reductions in regional Hg emissions. After 2000, C and N isotopes ratios revealed altered food web pathways, resulting in a benthic energetic shift and changes to Hg bioaccumulation. Continued increases in δ 202 Hg indicate fish are responding to several United States mercury emission mitigation strategies that were initiated circa 1990 and continued through the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards rule. Unlike archives of sediments, this fish archive tracks Hg sources susceptible to bioaccumulation in Great Lakes fisheries. Analysis reveals that trends in fish Hg concentrations can be substantially affected by shifts in trophic structure and dietary preferences initiated by invasive species in the Great Lakes. This does not diminish the benefits of declining emissions over this period, as fish Hg concentrations would have been higher without these actions.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2021

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa

In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand ( E 0 ). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E 0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E 0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E 0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E 0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E 0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.

Earth Systems Science Dynamics↗

USGS2005

Reach-scale effects of riparian forest cover on urban stream ecosystems

We compared habitat and biota between paired open and forested reaches within five small streams (basin area 10?20 km2) in suburban catchments (9%?49% urban land cover) in the Piedmont of Georgia, USA. Stream reaches with open canopies were narrower than forested reaches (4.1 versus 5.0 m, respectively). There were no differences in habitat diversity (variation in velocity, depth, or bed particle size) between open and forested reaches. However, absence of local forest cover corresponded to decreased large wood and increased algal chlorophyll a standing crop biomass. These differences in basal food resources translated into higher densities of fishes in open (9.0 individuals?m?2) versus forested (4.9 individuals?m?2) reaches, primarily attributed to higher densities of the herbivore Campostoma oligolepis. Densities of terrestrial invertebrate inputs were higher in open reaches; however, trends suggested higher biomass of terrestrial inputs in forested reaches and a corresponding higher density of terrestrial prey consumed by water column feeding fishes. Reach-scale biotic integrity (macroinvertebrates, salamanders, and fishes) was largely unaffected by differences in canopy cover. In urbanizing areas where catchment land cover drives habitat and biotic quality, management practices that rely exclusively on forested riparian areas for stream protection are unlikely to be effective at maintaining ecosystem integrity.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

Patterns, pace and processes of water-quality variability: Examples from a long-studied estuary

Environmental time series have rich information content that is invaluable for measuring and understanding changes over time and guiding policies to manage change. I extracted information from measurements of 10 water‐quality constituents in upper San Francisco Bay from 1975 to 2016, one of the longest observational records in a U.S. estuary. Changes were detected at every time scale captured by monthly sampling. Long‐term trends included increased ammonium (+53%), nitrate + nitrate (+50%), silicate (+14%), Secchi depth (+42%), and decreased chlorophyll a (Chl a ) (−74%) and suspended particulate matter (−45%). Changes at the decadal scale included abrupt shifts (Chl a , nitrate + nitrite) and oscillations between shorter trends of increase and decrease (Secchi depth, phosphate). Long‐term trends were not expressed equally across all seasons, and seasonal patterns of change varied across constituents. These examples illustrate key features of environmental variability at the land–sea interface: (1) water‐quality components change continually at time scales from months to decades; (2) patterns of seasonal, multiyear, and multidecadal change are complex and vary across constituents; (3) primary drivers of change are freshwater inflow, the master regulator of estuarine dynamics, and human activities such as river damming, water diversions, wastewater discharge, environmental policies, and species introductions; (4) extracting the full information content of time series requires multiple analyses, each revealing a different layer of insight into how changes develop over time; (5) water‐quality variability is nonstationary, so future changes cannot be forecast reliably; (6) repeated observation is an essential method of Earth system science with applications in the design and performance measures of environmental policies.

California↗

USGS2025

Long Term Resource Monitoring procedures—Aquatic vegetation monitoring

This standard operating procedure (SOP) manual describes the collection of standardized, long-term data for aquatic vegetation communities in selected study pools of the Upper Mississippi River System in the United States. The primary intent of the data collection is to assess the status and trends that aid in understanding the unique river ecosystem and to guide large-scale ecological restoration of the river and its biological communities, like aquatic plants and their dependent wildlife. This SOP is an update to the version published in 2000 and reflects modifications to sample sizes and additions of new data collection procedures. All long-term monitoring programs and their SOPs must be adapted to changing conditions and be improved through learning, and this SOP clarifies procedures and adds new elements since the initial SOP was written more than 25 years ago. The SOP is intended for multiple audiences, including vegetation specialists through the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program, data analysts using the publicly available data generated through this SOP, and natural resource managers and restoration practitioners who need data and science to guide some decisions. This SOP may be transferable and adaptable to other ecosystems when the aquatic plant community is the focus.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Behavior of potentially toxic elements from stoker-boiler fly ash in Interior Alaska: Paired batch leaching and solid-phase characterization

Despite significant investigation of fly ash spills and mineralogical controls on the release of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) from fly ash, interactions with the surficial environment remain relatively poorly understood. We conducted 90-day batch leaching studies with paired analysis of supernatant and solid-phase mineralogy to assess the elemental release and transformation of fly ash upon reaction with aquatic media (18 MΩ cm −1 water and simulated rainwater). The fly ash in this study, collected from the University of Alaska Fairbanks stoker-boiler power plant, is high in unburned carbon (~20% LOI) and highly enriched in several PTEs relative to the upper continental crust. Supernatant concentrations of oxyanion-forming elements (e.g., As, Se, Mo, Sb) remained relatively low and constant, suggesting equilibrium with the solid phase, possibly ettringite [Ca 6 Al 2 (SO 4 ) 3 (OH) 12 •26H 2 O], which is known to incorporate and sorb oxyanion-forming PTEs and was identified by X-ray diffraction. Synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) results failed to capture important temporal trends. Lead and Ba supernatant concentrations consistently exceeded drinking water standards, as well as others upon exposure to simulated physiological solutions. Seven-day experiments with dissolved organic matter-isolate solutions indicated that for certain elements, liberation was influenced by carbon concentration and/or the identity of the isolate. Overall, this paired approach can serve as a model for future studies, bridging existing gaps between batch leaching and single-element mineralogical, sorption, or speciation studies.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Variability and trends in global drought

Monthly precipitation ( P ) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature ( T ) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2026

Inference of pattern-based geological CO2 sequestration and oil recovery potential in a commingled main pay and residual oil zone CO2-EOR flood

Several detailed studies have shown that residual oil zones (ROZs) can present significant resources for additional hydrocarbon recovery as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration via enhanced oil recovery by injecting CO 2 (CO 2 -EOR). Field development strategies included new wells drilled dedicated to main pay zones (MPZ) and ROZs, or existing wells in MPZs deepened to ROZs for commingled injection-production using different well patterns. The latter presented a challenge when discerning the injection and production from each of the zones, and for subsequent quantification of CO 2 sequestration and EOR potential from different patterns and from the field. In this paper, an innovative method for analyzing commingled injections and productions from MPZs and ROZs, with application to pattern-based data from four staggered line drive patterns in Wasson Field's Denver Unit, Texas, USA, was developed. Decline curve and ratio-trend methods were used as means of history-matching and forecasting. Cumulative production-time and cumulative production-rate data for oil, gas, and water, as well as water-oil ratio (WOR) and gas-oil ratio (GOR), were analyzed along with injection data for time intervals covering major injection events in MPZ, or MPZ and ROZ combined. A combined analysis enabled inference of allocation of fluids into different zones during WAG (water alternating gas) injection and thereby estimation of CO 2 storage, utilization, and retention in different zones as a function of total injection. Results show that ROZs generally present higher CO 2 sequestration potential compared to MPZs, and a comparable incremental oil recovery factor of ∼20%, on average. Results based on ratio analysis further show that while the WOR trend of the pattern production is mostly dominated and controlled by ROZ, GOR is controlled by both intervals. Although the method relying on decline curves and the approach used in zonal fluid allocations are subject to their limitations, this study presents a practical and innovative well-pattern-based method to infer and forecast CO 2 sequestration and oil recovery quantities and fluid ratios from MPZs and ROZs in commingled operations and highlight the added potential offered by ROZs.

Texas↗