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A cost-benefit analysis of The National Map

The Geography Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted this cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of The National Map. This analysis is an evaluation of the proposed Geography Discipline initiative to provide the Nation with a mechanism to access current and consistent digital geospatial data. This CBA is a supporting document to accompany the Exhibit 300 Capital Asset Plan and Business Case of The National Map Reengineering Program. The framework for estimating the benefits is based on expected improvements in processing information to perform any of the possible applications of spatial data. This analysis does not attempt to determine the benefits and costs of performing geospatial-data applications. Rather, it estimates the change in the differences between those benefits and costs with The National Map and the current situation without it. The estimates of total costs and benefits of The National Map were based on the projected implementation time, development and maintenance costs, rates of data inclusion and integration, expected usage levels over time, and a benefits estimation model. The National Map provides data that are current, integrated, consistent, complete, and more accessible in order to decrease the cost of implementing spatial-data applications and (or) improve the outcome of those applications. The efficiency gains in per-application improvements are greater than the cost to develop and maintain The National Map, meaning that the program would bring a positive net benefit to the Nation. The average improvement in the net benefit of performing a spatial data application was multiplied by a simulated number of application implementations across the country. The numbers of users, existing applications, and rates of application implementation increase over time as The National Map is developed and accessed by spatial data users around the country. Results from the 'most likely' estimates of model parameters and data inputs indicate that, over its 30-year projected lifespan, The National Map will bring a net present value (NPV) of benefits of $2.05 billion in 2001 dollars. The average time until the initial investments (the break-even period) are recovered is 14 years. Table ES-1 shows a running total of NPV in each year of the simulation model. In year 14, The National Map first shows a positive NPV, and so the table is highlighted in gray after that point. Figure ES-1 is a graph of the total benefit and total cost curves of a single model run over time. The curves cross in year 14, when the project breaks even. A sensitivity analysis of the input variables illustrated that these results of the NPV of The National Map are quite robust. Figure ES-2 plots the mean NPV results from 60 different scenarios, each consisting of fifty 30-year runs. The error bars represent a two-standard-deviation range around each mean. The analysis that follows contains the details of the cost-benefit analysis, the framework for evaluating economic benefits, a computational simulation tool, and a sensitivity analysis of model variables and values.

Circular

Groundwater quality in the Antelope Valley, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Antelope Valley is one of the study areas being evaluated. The Antelope study area is approximately 1,600 square miles (4,144 square kilometers) and includes the Antelope Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). Antelope Valley has an arid climate and is part of the Mojave Desert. Average annual rainfall is about 6 inches (15 centimeters). The study area has internal drainage, with runoff from the surrounding mountains draining towards dry lakebeds in the lower parts of the valley. Land use in the study area is approximately 68 percent (%) natural (mostly shrubland and grassland), 24% agricultural, and 8% urban. The primary crops are pasture and hay. The largest urban areas are the cities of Palmdale and Lancaster (2010 populations of 152,000 and 156,000, respectively). Groundwater in this basin is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in Antelope Valley are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in Antelope Valley are completed to depths between 360 and 700 feet (110 to 213 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 180 to 350 feet (55 to 107 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. Recharge to the groundwater system is primarily runoff from the surrounding mountains, and by direct infiltration of irrigation and sewer and septic systems. The primary sources of discharge are pumping wells and evapotranspiration near the dry lakebeds.

California

Stratigraphic analysis of Corte Madera Creek flood control channel deposits

Sedimentation in a channel can reduce flood conveyance capability and potentially place nearby property and life at risk from flooding. In 1998, Marin County Public Works dredged the concrete-lined segment of Corte Madera Creek, which drains a hilly and largely urbanized watershed that terminates in San Francisco Bay, California. From then through 2015, approximately 4,100 cubic meters of sand and gravel infilled the concrete-lined segment. Determining when and under what conditions this material was deposited informs dredging operations for the Corte Madera Creek Flood Control Project and increases understanding of sediment delivery timing and mechanisms from this and other San Francisco Bay tributaries. Two hypothesized scenarios were investigated: (1) complete flushing during high flows and re-deposition of channel fill afterward and (2) more steady, gradual channel infilling. Stratigraphic analysis of eight sediment cores collected from the flood-control channel deposits in August 2017 was used to identify the most likely scenario. In addition, sediment elevation profiles, grain-size data, and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model were used to assess the potential for longitudinal-channel scour and deposition following the wet winter of water year 2017 in the intertidal reach of the concrete channel in Corte Madera Creek. Results indicated the channel is undergoing gradual infilling. Storm flows of water year 2017 did not completely scour the concrete channel fill. Sediment cores, stratigraphic analysis, and sediment elevation profiles indicated 0.23 meter of scour at the downstream end of the concrete-lined section and that roughly 0.5 meter of channel fill remained in the channel. The hydrodynamic model demonstrated that sediment deposition in the concrete channel is expected to start downstream from the point where the channel bed reaches mean lower low-water level. High flows can carry most of the sediment through this segment of channel, depositing the bed-material load downstream from the transition to a wide channel, where velocity and bed shear stress decrease abruptly. Although the storm flows of 2017 did not completely scour the channel fill, subsequent material deposited in the channel could be transported downstream from the concrete channel if the sediment elevation profile is in equilibrium with present (2019) mean sea level. A calibrated, coupled hydrodynamic-sediment transport model could be used to test the present equilibrium between sediment elevation profiles and mean sea level, such that additional sediment build-up in the concrete channel is remobilized during subsequent wet-season flows and deposited downstream from the concrete-lined segment.

California

Mercury studies in the Florida Everglades

Public concern for wildlife and human health problems due to mercury (Hg) toxicity has increased substantially since the mid-1980's. These concerns are manifested primarily by the issuance of fish consumption advisories in the majority of U.S. states, Canada, and several European countries because of high levels of mercury in game fish. Although the precise causes for this contamination problem are not completely understood, it appears that there are both source and ecosystem-specific factors that can result in elevated levels of mercury in game fish. Because mercury is known to adverse affect the human brain and nervous system, health concerns arise when elevated concentrations of mercury are detected in game fish from ecosystems where there is subsistence level consumption of fish. In extreme cases such as the Everglades, where mercury concentrations in fish consistently exceed the Florida advisory level of 1.5 parts per million, even occasional fish consumption is not recommended. For most aquatic ecosystems, atmospheric deposition is the primary source of mercury. although there are numerous instances of geologic and anthropogenic point-source contamination. There are many sources of mercury to the atmosphere, both natural and human related. Natural sources include outgassing from the oceans, volcanoes, and natural mercury deposits. Coal combustion, waste incineration, chloralkai production, and metal processing are the dominant human-related sources to the atmosphere. In ecosystems for which atmospheric deposition is the dominant source, resulting concentrations of total mercury in water are very low, generally less than 10 nanograms per liter (ng/L). The challenge to scientists is to explain the series of processes that lead to toxic or near-toxic levels of mercury in organisms near the top of the food chain (bioaccumulation), when aqueous concentrations and source-delivery rates are so low. To understand this phenomenon adequately, scientists must apply an interdisciplinary approach wherein various components of an ecosystem (atmosphere, biota, surface water, ground water, and sediments) are studied-contemporaneously. The purpose of this fact sheet is to describe the mercury contamination problem in south Florida, and the interdisciplinary project that was assembled under the auspices of the U.S. Geological Survey South Florida Ecosystem Program to investigate the underlying processes that cause mercury bioaccumulation.

Florida

Establishing Forster’s Tern ( Sterna forsteri ) nesting sites at pond A16 using social attraction for the South Bay Salt Pond restoration project

Forster’s terns ( Sterna forsteri ), historically one of the most numerous colonial-breeding waterbirds in South San Francisco Bay, California, have experienced recent decreases in the number of nesting colonies and overall breeding population size. The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project aims to restore 50–90 percent of former salt evaporation ponds to tidal marsh habitat in South San Francisco Bay. During phase 1 of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, the breaching of several pond levees to begin the process of tidal marsh restoration inundated island nesting habitat that had been used by Forster’s terns, American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), and other waterbirds. Additional nesting habitat could be lost as more managed ponds are converted to tidal marsh in the future. To address this issue, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project organized the construction of new nesting islands in managed ponds that will not be restored to tidal marsh, thereby providing enduring island nesting habitat for waterbirds. In 2012, 16 new islands were constructed in Pond A16 in the Alviso complex of the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, which increased the number of islands in this pond from 4 to 20. However, despite a long history of nesting on the four islands in Pond A16 before the 2012 construction activities, no Forster’s terns have nested in Pond A16 during the 7-year period (2012–18) after island construction. During the 2017 and 2019 breeding seasons, we used social attraction measures (decoys and colony call playback systems) to attract Forster’s terns to islands within Pond A16 to re-establish nesting colonies. We maintained these systems from March through August in each year. To evaluate the effect of these social attraction measures, we completed surveys (between April and August) where we recorded the number and location of all Forster’s terns and other waterbirds using Pond A16, and we monitored waterbird nests. We compared bird survey and nest monitoring data collected in 2017 and 2019 to data collected in 2015 and 2016, prior to the implementation of social attraction measures, allowing for direct evaluation of the effect of social attraction efforts on Forster’s terns. To increase the visibility and stakeholder involvement of this project, we engaged in multiple outreach activities in 2017, 2019, and 2020, including the development of a project website and educational video; publication of popular articles in 2017 and 2020; the development of outreach materials describing the project to the general public; and public presentations to relay findings to managers, stakeholders, and the general public. The relative abundance of Forster’s terns in Pond A16, after adjusting for the overall South San Francisco Bay breeding population each year, was higher during the nesting period in 2017 and 2019 (when social attraction was used) than in 2015 and 2016 (before social attraction was used). Furthermore, more Forster’s terns were observed during the pre-nesting and nesting periods in the areas of Pond A16 where decoys and call systems were deployed. Although no Forster’s tern nests were observed in Pond A16 before social attraction was implemented (2015, 2016), or during the first-year social attraction was implemented (2017), 35 Forster’s tern nests were recorded during the second year of social attraction implementation in 2019. These 35 nests represent a re-establishment of a Forster’s tern nesting colony to Pond A16 for the first time in 8 years. As social attraction efforts often benefit from multiple years of decoy and call system deployment, results from 2017 and 2019 suggest that continued implementation of social attraction measures could help to ensure Forster’s tern breeding colonies persist in Pond A16 and other areas of South San Francisco Bay.

California

GLORIA sidescan and seismic data collected by the DESV STARELLA along the continental slope and upper continental rise of the Eastern United States in 1979

A cruise on the- DESV STARELLA was conducted between October 23. 1979, and November 8, 1979, by the U.S. Geologic.al Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the United Kingdom's Institute of Oceanographic Sciences (IOS). The purpose of the study was to gain an overview of the morphology of large areas of the Continental Slope and upper Continental Rise off the eastern ·united States. Sidescan-sonar and single-channel seismic-reflection data were collected along the tracklines. The ship's position. was monitored using LORAN_C and satellite navigation techniques. The sidescan data were collected using the !OS-developed Geologic Long­-Range Inclined Asdic, Mark II (GLORIA II) system. GLORIA was operated at either a 20-second or 40-second sweep, giving maximum slant-range distances of 15 or 30 kilometers, respectively, to each side of the towed fish. The sidescan data were collected on graphic recorders and analog tapes. The tapes were played onto photographic paper in a facsimile machine; then these prints were photographically stretched to produce approximately isometric images .. The images were not corrected for slant-range distortion. Mosaics at a scale of 1:250,000 (Mercator projection) were made from the photographic images. The seismic· data consist of 40-in 3 airgun and 10-kHz echo-sounder profiles. The airgun data were recorded on EPC recorders at both 8- and 4- second sweep rates. The 10-kHz echo-sounder data were recorded on a wet-paper recorder at a 2-second sweep rate. Approximately 4,820 km of seismic and sonar-data wera collected from four areas of interest and along the lines connecting those areas. Area 1 includes the Continental Slope and upper Rise seaward of Georges Bank, between Northeast Channel and Alvin Canyon. Numerous lines were run here, resulting in approximately 2,500 km of seismic data and complete and overlapping GLORIA coverage of the area. A similar survey, consisting of approximately 1 2 200 km of trackline, was run in area 2, which includes the Continental Slope and upper Rise seaward of the middle Atlantic states between Hudson Canyon and Baltimore Canyon. A single line, 250 km long, was run through area 3 along the base of the Continental Slope from Cape Hatteras to latitude 33°N. off North and South Carolina. Two parallel lines, totaling 870 km, were run through area 4 along the Blake Escarpment, from the Blake Spur south to latitude 27°40'N. One line was run along the top of the escarpment and the other was run along the base of the escarpment. All the data can be studied at the U.S. Geological Survey offices in Woods Hole, MA 02543. Microfilm copies of the sidescan-monitor record as well as the airgun and 10-kHz profiles can be purchased only from the National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, Code E64, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303 (303/497-6338). Photographic copies of the GLORIA mosaics can also be obtained only from this address.

Open-File Report

Bedrock, soil, and lichen geochemistry from Isle Royale National Park, Michigan

Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, is a large island in northeastern Lake Superior that became a national park in 1940 and was designated as a wilderness area in 1976. The relative isolation of Isle Royale (Figure 1), 25 kilometers out in Lake Superior from the Canadian mainland, its generally harsh climate, and its status as a wilderness national park have minimized human influence on the geochemical evolution of its landscape. USGS sampling on Isle Royale began in 1996 as part of a larger project on the geology of the Midcontinent rift in the Lake Superior region and continued through 2000. Sampling began with collecting bedrock samples to characterize the geochemistry of the volcanic rocks that make up the much of the island, as well as samples representative of the minor native copper mineralization found on the island. Preliminary results from the bedrock study indicated, among other findings, that basaltic bedrock on the island had no detectable mercury, but that there was an association between native copper mineralization and trace amounts of mercury (Cannon and Woodruff, 1999). This finding and the recognition by the National Park Service that 6 of 32 inland lakes on Isle Royale have mercury levels in game fish that exceed State of Michigan acceptable levels for human consumption (Kallemeyn, 2000) resulted in renewed sampling on the island focused more on environmental issues. To evaluate atmospheric inputs of mercury and other elements to soil geochemistry, regionally distributed samples of both soils and lichens were collected as paired samples across the entire island. At each soil sample site, three epiphytic (grows in trees) lichen species, Evernia mesomorpha , Hypogymnia plysodes , and Parmelia sucata , were always collected. At some sites Cladina rangiferina , a lichen that grows on bare bedrock and soil surfaces, was also collected. The occurrence of Cladina rangiferina on the island is somewhat limited, and so this lichen species was not collected at all sites. A high density of soil samples was collected within three individual watersheds (Sargent Lake, Lake Wagejo, and Lake Richie) for a localized study that evaluated the terrestrial distribution of mercury and other elements of environmental concern. These lakes were chosen using data from Kallemeyn (2000) that showed that Sargent Lake and Lake Wagejo have high mercury in fish, whereas Lake Richie, which is similar in size to Sargent Lake, does not. As part of this study on the terrestrial contribution of mercury to lakes, long cores of lake sediments were recovered from Sargent Lake and Lake Richie using a modified Livingston piston sampler. For an ancillary study that evolved from the study on the distribution of mercury in certain watersheds, some soil samples were collected to evaluate the impact of forest fire on soil geochemistry, deliberately sampling within and outside areas on the island that burned in severe forest fires in 1936. To complete bedrock sampling on the island, rock samples from the Copper Harbor Formation, a sedimentary unit that occurs on the southeastern part of the island were collected in 1999. This report presents all the geochemical data from samples collected by the USGS during this period (Figures 1 and 2). A number of reports presenting data interpretation are in preparation

Michigan

Chemical constituents in groundwater from multiple zones in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 2009-13

From 2009 to 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project office, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, collected water-quality samples from multiple water-bearing zones in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Water samples were collected from 11 monitoring wells completed in about 250–750 feet of the upper part of the aquifer, and samples were analyzed for selected major ions, trace elements, nutrients, radiochemical constituents, and stable isotopes. Each well was equipped with a multilevel monitoring system containing four to seven sampling ports that were each isolated by permanent packer systems. The sampling ports were installed in aquifer zones that were highly transmissive and that represented the water chemistry of the top three to five model layers of a steady-state and transient groundwater‑flow model. The groundwater-flow model and water chemistry are being used to better define movement of wastewater constituents in the aquifer. The water-chemistry composition of all sampled zones for the five new multilevel wells is calcium plus magnesium bicarbonate. One of the zones in well USGS 131A has a slightly different chemistry from the rest of the zones and wells and the difference is attributed to more wastewater influence from the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center. One well, USGS 135, was not influenced by wastewater disposal and consisted of mostly older water in all of its zones. Tritium concentrations in relation to basaltic flow units indicate the presence of wastewater influence in multiple basalt flow groups; however, tritium is most abundant in the South Late Matuyama flow group in the southern boundary wells. The concentrations of wastewater constituents in deep zones in wells Middle 2051, USGS 132, USGS 105, and USGS 103 support the concept of groundwater flow deepening in the southwestern corner of the INL, as indicated by the INL groundwater-flow model.

Idaho

Artificial recharge through a well in fissured carbonate rock, west St. Paul, Minnesota

The Prairie du Chien Group was injected with 2,754,000 gallons (368,200 cubic feet), or 10,430 cubic metres, of municipally treated water at about 100 gallons per minute (13.4 cubic feet per minute), or 6.3 litres per second, for 20 days. The injection-pipe system was designed to utilize pipe friction rather than a remote-controlled valve in the well to maintain positive pressure and eliminate air entrainment in the injection water and the escape cf dissolved gasses from the water. During the 20-day injection period the temperature of the injection water declined gradually from 15.0 ° to 11.2 ° C, and the flow rate decreased from 108 to 90 gallons per minute (6.8 to 5.7 litres per second). Analyses of test data were, in some instances, based upon hydrologic judgement as well as observations. Results of aquifer tests before and after injections indicated that the transmissivity had decreased 18 percent during the intervening injection periods; however, the specific capacity remained the same, indicating no change in transmissivity during pumping. Analysis of water-level changes in observation wells during injection indicated a reduction in transmissivity of more than 50 percent; however, the specific capacity of the injection well decreased only about 5 percent during injection. A comparison of water-level changes with the discharge or recharge rates of the three tests showed that the water-level changes in the two observation wells tapping the Prairie du Chien Group during the injection test were greater than those projected from the two aouifer pumping tests. The deviations in the water-level changes and in the analysis of aquifer-test data indicate that the methods used to analyze data from these wells may not be wholly applicable, inasmuch as anisotropic and nonhomogeneous conditions prevail in at least the Prairie du Chien part of the aquifer. The native water and the injected water averaged 0.8 and 25 milligrams per litre chloride, respectively. The chloride, utilized as a tracer, showed that the injected water was detected only in the lower part of the nearest observation well, 99 feet (30.2 metres) from the injection well. The chemistry of the water and the rock formation showed little likelihood of plugging of the recharge well by chemical precipitation. Microbiological phenomena apparently did not become a significant factor in the recharge test. The hydraulic gradient of the aquifer in October and December 1971 (before and after injection) was estimated to be N. 36 ° E., 0.0013, and N. 39 ° E., 0.0012, respectively, on the basis of measurements of water levels in the three wells in the Prairie du Chien Group. The single-well tracer-dilution method of calculation showed a hydraulic gradient of 0.0016. A longitudinal dispersivity of 280 feet (85 metres) was calculated. Such a value of dispersivity is typical of fractured reservoirs and shows that the Prairie du Chien Group is a heterogeneous aquifer. The injection test demonstrated that it is hydrologically feasible to recharge the Prairie du Chien Group and the Jordan Sandstone artificially through wells completed in the Prairie du Chien Group. The fissures in the Prairie du Chien Group act as conduits through which water spreads. The water passes into the Jordan Sandstone from the Prairie du Chien over a larger area than it would if it were injected directly into the Jordan.

Minnesota

Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome ( Bromus inermis ) and Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis ). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective: increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native sod while minimizing cost. Cooperators agreed that decision guidance should be provided annually and should account for local, real-time vegetation conditions observed on the ground. Over the course of development, two prototypes of the decision framework were considered. The final framework recognized four alternative actions that managers could take in any given year: (1) Graze—targeted use of grazing ungulates to achieve defoliation, (2) Burn—application of prescribed fire as the single form of defoliation, (3) Burn/Graze—a combination treatment, and (4) Rest—no action. The study area included northern mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie. Native vegetation in mixed–grass prairie has a strong cool-season component and thus the dominant native species have a phenology similar to that of smooth brome and Kentucky bluegrass, making management of those species challenging. In contrast, tallgrass prairie has a strong warm-season native component, leading to an existence of cool-season windows, periods of time in the fall and spring when cool‐season invasive grass species are actively growing and vulnerable to damage via select management actions, but warm‐season grass species are not active and are thus less susceptible to damage via the same actions. This dichotomy between prairie types necessitated the development of separate but parallel decision support systems for mixed-grass and tallgrass biomes. Management units are parcels of native prairie that receive a single management treatment at any one time over their entire extent. At any particular time, the vegetation state of each management unit is characterized by the amount of cover of native grasses and forbs and the type of invasive grass that is dominant. In addition, each unit has a defoliation state which reflects the number of years since the last defoliation event and an index to how intensively the unit was managed during the previous 7 years. State-transition models are used to predict the state of a management unit in year t+1 from its state in year t and a prescribed management action that was applied between the two monitoring events. Alternative models are built around key uncertainties that make choice of a management action difficult. Three uncertainties revolve around whether the effect of management actions depends on (1) type of dominant invader, (2) past defoliation history, and (3) level of invasion. Two additional uncertainties are considered when choosing a management action for tallgrass units: (4) the effectiveness of grazing within the cool-season window as a surrogate for burning when smooth brome is the dominant invader, and (5) the differential effect of active management outside the window as compared to rest. Because data on the probability of transitioning from one state to another under the various models were lacking, expert opinion and elicitation were used to parameterize the models. In addition, cooperators participated in elicitation exercises to extract their beliefs regarding the value of having native prairie compared to the cost of achieving it. Quantifying the subjective expression of utility in this way allowed for mathematical representation of the management objective into an objective function. By maximizing the objective function, cumulative utility is maximized, leading to the identification of a sequence of decisions that will achieve the management objective. The NPAM system adopted a vegetation monitoring protocol that was rapid, inexpensive, and familiar to many of the cooperators. The monitoring protocol served three purposes: (1) determining current vegetation and defoliation states of each unit, (2) evaluating progress toward the management objective, and (3) assessing predictive performance of the alternative models. The management year runs from September 1 to August 31. Management can be applied anytime during that period and monitoring takes places from late June to mid-August. Cooperators enter vegetation data and management information into a centralized database by August 25 of each year. Given the current state of the system (vegetation and defoliation states) and the current understanding of the system (or the belief state), identifying the current best management decision is a matter of looking up the combination (that is, system state and belief state) in the appropriate (mixed-grass or tallgrass) optimal decision table. Given complete uncertainty at the outset of decision-making, initial assignment of equal belief weights to each model was believed reasonable. The decisions in the optimal decision table that correspond to the current belief state constitute the current optimal decision policy. By August 31 of each year, individual cooperators are provided with a recommended management action for each of their management units for the upcoming management year. Upon receiving the management recommendations for their units, managers consider the recommendation, along with other relevant information, and at some point during the year one of the management alternatives is carried out. This iterative cycle of making and implementing a management decision, predicting the response, monitoring the outcome, comparing predicted and observed outcomes, updating model weights, and recommending a management action for the next cycle is expected to result in an accumulation of weight on a representative model of system dynamics, thereby increasing understanding needed to effectively manage native prairies. The NPAM system is now entering its second full year of complete operation, and represents one of only a few fully implemented applications of adaptive management within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. NPAM is truly unique in that it originated from the ground up as a result of the leadership and steadfastness of several refuge biologists and managers confronted with a common problem. These biologists recognized that working together across a large landscape presented perhaps the best opportunity for halting and reversing the invasion of native grasslands by non-native cool-season grasses. Importantly, the NPAM system encapsulates the collective thinking and experience of tens if not hundreds of individuals who have battled this vexing problem for much of their careers. The NPAM initiative is rooted in principles of adaptive management, thereby affording the opportunity for grassland managers to pursue management objectives while acquiring information to reduce uncertainty and improve future management. The project introduced a number of technical innovations that will serve as templates for conservation efforts throughout and beyond the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First, NPAM is an on-the-ground implementation of active adaptive management—possibly the first of its kind in conservation management—in which recommended management actions result from a prospective analysis of future learning (Williams, 1996). Second, by the use of dynamic optimization, NPAM demonstrates how decisions can be made that take into account possible future transitions of the system. Third, NPAM demonstrates how models of partial controllability are an effective means of accommodating unpredictable circumstances that cause a manager to follow a different course than was intended. Finally, the database developed for NPAM is an unparalleled system that enables the rapid integration of data from the field for the generation of ‘just-in-time’ management recommendations. In all, NPAM provides an example of how a science-management partnership can be forged to achieve large-scale conservation objectives.

Minnesota;Montana;North Dakota;South Dakota

Groundwater quality in the Colorado River basins, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Four groundwater basins along the Colorado River make up one of the study areas being evaluated. The Colorado River study area is approximately 884 square miles (2,290 square kilometers) and includes the Needles, Palo Verde Mesa, Palo Verde Valley, and Yuma groundwater basins (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). The Colorado River study area has an arid climate and is part of the Sonoran Desert. Average annual rainfall is about 3 inches (8 centimeters). Land use in the study area is approximately 47 percent (%) natural (mostly shrubland), 47% agricultural, and 6% urban. The primary crops are pasture and hay. The largest urban area is the city of Blythe (2010 population of 21,000). Groundwater in these basins is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay deposited by the Colorado River or derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in the Colorado River study area are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in the Colorado River basins are completed to depths between 230 and 460 feet (70 to 140 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 130 of 390 feet (39 to 119 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. The main source of recharge to the groundwater systems in the Needles, Palo Verde Mesa, and Palo Verde Valley basins is the Colorado River; in the Yuma basin, the main source of recharge is from subsurface flow from the groundwater basins to the west. Groundwater discharge is primarily to pumping wells, evapotranspiration, and, locally, to the Colorado River.

Arizona, California

Three-dimensional imaging, change detection, and stability assessment during the centerline trench levee seepage experiment using terrestrial light detection and ranging technology, Twitchell Island, California, 2012

A full scale field seepage test was conducted on a north-south trending levee segment of a now bypassed old meander belt on Twitchell Island, California, to understand the effects of live and decaying root systems on levee seepage and slope stability. The field test in May 2012 was centered on a north-south trench with two segments: a shorter control segment and a longer seepage test segment. The complete length of the trench area measured 40.4 meters (m) near the levee centerline with mature trees located on the waterside and landside of the levee flanks. The levee was instrumented with piezometers and tensiometers to measure positive and negative porewater pressures across the levee after the trench was flooded with water and held at a constant hydraulic head during the seepage test—the results from this component of the experiment are not discussed in this report. We collected more than one billion three-dimensional light detection and ranging (lidar) data points before, during, and after the centerline seepage test to assess centimeter-scale stability of the two trees and the levee crown. During the seepage test, the waterside tree toppled (rotated 20.7 degrees) into the water. The landside tree rotated away from the levee by 5 centimeters (cm) at a height of 2 m on the tree. The paved surface of the levee crown had three regions that showed subsidence on the waterside of the trench—discussed as the northern, central, and southern features. The northern feature is an elongate region that subsided 2.1 cm over an area with an average width of 1.35 m that extends 15.8 m parallel to the trench from the northern end of the trench to just north of the trench midpoint, and is associated with a crack 1 cm in height that formed during the seepage test on the trench wall. The central subsidence feature is a semicircular region on the waterside of the trench that subsided by as much as 6.2 cm over an area 3.4 m wide and 11.2 m long. The southern feature is an elongate region that has a maximum subsidence of 3.5 cm over an area 0.75 m wide and 8.1 m long and is associated with a number of small fractures in the pavement that are predominately north-south-trending and parallel to the trench. We determined that there was no significant motion of the levee flank during the last week of the seepage test. We also determined biomorphic parameters for the landside tree, such as the 3D positioning on the levee, tree height, levee parallel/perpendicular cross sectional area, and canopy centroid. These biomorphic parameters were requested to support a University of California Berkeley team studying seepage and stability on the levee. A gridded, 2-cm bare-earth digital elevation model of the levee crown and the landside levee flank from the final terrestrial lidar (T-Lidar) survey provided detailed topographic data for future assessment. Because the T-Lidar was not integrated into the project design, other than an initial courtesy dataset to help characterize the levee surface, our ability to contribute to the overall science goals of the seepage test was limited. Therefore, our analysis focused on developing data collection and processing methodology necessary to align ultra high-resolution T-Lidar data (with an average spot spacing 2–3 millimeters on the levee crown) from several instrument setup locations to detect, measure, and characterize dynamic centimeter-scale deformation and surface changes during the seepage test.

California

Geomorphic changes caused by the 2011 flood at selected sites along the lower Missouri River and comparison to historical floods

An analysis of recent and historical U.S. Geological Survey streamgage information was used to assess geomorphic changes caused by the 2011 flood, in comparison to selected historical floods, at three streamgage sites along the lower Missouri River—Sioux City, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; and Kansas City, Missouri. Channel-width change was not evident at the three streamgage sites following the 2011 flood and likely was inhibited by bank stabilization. Pronounced changes in channel-bed elevation were indicated. At Sioux City and Omaha, the geomorphic effects of the 2011 flood were similar in terms of the magnitude of channelbed scour and recovery. At both sites, the 2011 flood caused pronounced scour (about 3 feet) of the channel bed; however, at Omaha, most of the channel-bed scour occurred after the flood had receded. More than 1 year after the flood, the channel bed had only partially recovered (about 1 foot) at both sites. Pronounced scour (about 3 feet at Sioux City and about 1.5 feet at Omaha) also was caused by the 1952 flood, which had a substantially larger peak discharge but was much shorter in duration at both sites. Again, at Omaha, most of the channel- bed scour occurred after the flood had receded. At Sioux City, substantial recovery of the channel bed (about 2.5 feet) was documented 1 year after the 1952 flood. Recovery to the pre-flood elevation was complete by April 1954. The greater recovery following the 1952 flood, compared to the 2011 flood, likely was related to a more abundant sediment supply because the flood predated the completion of most of the main-stem dam, channelization, and bank stabilization projects. At Omaha, following the 1952 flood, the channel bed never fully recovered to its pre-flood elevation. The geomorphic effect of the 2011 flood at Kansas City was fill (about 1 foot) on the channel bed followed by relative stability. The 1952 flood, which had a substantially larger peak discharge but was much shorter in duration, caused modest fill (about 0.5 foot) on the channel bed. The 1993 flood, which also had a substantially larger peak discharge but was much shorter in duration, caused pronounced scour of the channel bed (possibly as much as 4 feet). Similar to the floods at Omaha, much of the channel-bed scour at Kansas City occurred after the 1993 flood had receded. More than 1 year after the 1993 flood, following partial recovery (about 1 foot), the channel bed had stabilized, at least temporarily. Following the 1993 flood, the channel bed never fully recovered to its pre-flood elevation. For each flood in the post-dam era that resulted in substantial channel-bed scour (Sioux City in 2011, Omaha in 2011, Kansas City in 1993), recovery of the channel bed to its pre-flood elevation had not occurred more than 1 year after the flood (20 years after the 1993 flood at Kansas City). Thus, the possibility exists that channel-bed scour caused by large floods may have a cumulative effect along the lower Missouri River. The persistence of the flood-related decreases in channel-bed elevation may be indicative of the constrained ability of the channel to recover given a limited sediment supply caused by one or more of the following factors: upstream storage of sediment in reservoirs, bank stabilization, commercial sand dredging, depletion of readily available sediment by the flood, and a lack of post-flood sediment contributions from tributaries.

Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana,

Geologic map of the Dillon quadrangle, Summit and Grand Counties, Colorado

New 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the Interstate-70 urban corridor in western Colorado, in support of the USGS Central Region State/USGS Cooperative Geologic Mapping Project, is contributing to a more complete understanding of the stratigraphy, structure, tectonic evolution, and hazard potential of this rapidly developing region. The 1:24,000-scale Dillon quadrangle is near the headwaters of the Blue River and straddles features of the Blue River graben (Kellogg, 1999), part of the northernmost reaches of the Rio Grande rift, a major late Oligocene to recent zone of extension that extends from Colorado to Mexico. The Williams Range thrust fault, the western structural margin of the Colorado Front Range, cuts through the center of the quadrangle, although is mostly covered by surficial deposits. The oldest rocks in the quadrangle underlie the Williams Fork Mountains and the ridge immediately east of South Fork Middle Fork River, and include biotite-sillimanite schist and gneiss, amphibolite, and migmatite that are intruded by granite inferred to be part of the 1,667-1,750 Ma Routt Plutonic Suite (Tweto, 1987). The oldest exposed sedimentary unit is the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation, but Pennsylvanian Maroon Formation, a sequence of red sandstone, conglomerate, and interbedded shale, underlies the southern part of the quadrangle. The thickest sequence of sedimentary rocks is Cretaceous in age and includes at least 500 m of the Upper Cretaceous Pierre Shale. Surficial deposits include (1) an old, deeply dissected landslide deposit, possibly as old as Pliocene, on the west flank of the Williams Fork Mountains, (2) deeply weathered, very coarse gravel deposits underlying a mesa in the southwest part of the quadrangle (the Mesa Cortina subdivision. The gravels are gold bearing and were mined by hydraulic methods in the 1800s), (3) moderately to deeply weathered, widespread, bouldery material that is a combination of till of the Bull Lake glaciation, debris-flow deposits, landslide deposits, and possibly pre-Bull Lake till, (4) glacial deposits of both Bull Lake (middle Pleistocene) and Pinedale (late Pleistocene)glaciations, (5) recent landslide deposits, and (6)extensive colluvial and alluvial deposits.

Colorado

Geologic map of the Dillon quadrangle, Summit and Grand Counties, Colorado

New 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the Interstate-70 urban corridor in western Colorado, in support of the USGS Central Region State/USGS Cooperative Geologic Mapping Project, is contributing to a more complete understanding of the stratigraphy, structure, tectonic evolution, and hazard potential of this rapidly developing region. The 1:24,000-scale Dillon quadrangle is near the headwaters of the Blue River and straddles features of the Blue River graben (Kellogg, 1999), part of the northernmost reaches of the Rio Grande rift, a major late Oligocene to recent zone of extension that extends from Colorado to Mexico. The Williams Range thrust fault, the western structural margin of the Colorado Front Range, cuts through the center of the quadrangle, although is mostly covered by surficial deposits. The oldest rocks in the quadrangle underlie the Williams Fork Mountains and the ridge immediately east of South Fork Middle Fork River, and include biotite-sillimanite schist and gneiss, amphibolite, and migmatite that are intruded by granite inferred to be part of the 1,667-1,750 Ma Routt Plutonic Suite (Tweto, 1987). The oldest exposed sedimentary unit is the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation, but Pennsylvanian Maroon Formation, a sequence of red sandstone, conglomerate, and interbedded shale, underlies the southern part of the quadrangle. The thickest sequence of sedimentary rocks is Cretaceous in age and includes at least 500 m of the Upper Cretaceous Pierre Shale. Surficial deposits include (1) an old, deeply dissected landslide deposit, possibly as old as Pliocene, on the west flank of the Williams Fork Mountains, (2) deeply weathered, very coarse gravel deposits underlying a mesa in the southwest part of the quadrangle (the Mesa Cortina subdivision. The gravels are gold bearing and were mined by hydraulic methods in the 1800s), (3) moderately to deeply weathered, widespread, bouldery material that is a combination of till of the Bull Lake glaciation, debris-flow deposits, landslide deposits, and possibly pre-Bull Lake till, (4) glacial deposits of both Bull Lake (middle Pleistocene) and Pinedale (late Pleistocene)glaciations, (5) recent landslide deposits, and (6)extensive colluvial and alluvial deposits.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map

U.S. Geological Survey middle Rio Grande basin study; proceedings of the third annual workshop, Albuquerque, New Mexico, February 24-25, 1999

Approximately 40 percent (about 600,000 people) of the total population of New Mexico lives within the Middle Rio Grande Basin, which includes the City of Albuquerque. Ongoing analyses of the central portion of the Middle Rio Grande Basin by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Albuquerque and other agencies have shown that ground water in the basin is not as readily accessible as earlier studies indicated. A more complete characterization of the ground-water resources of the entire Middle Rio Grande Basin is hampered by a scarcity of data in the northern and southern areas of the basin. The USGS Middle Rio Grande Basin study is a 5-year effort by the USGS and other agencies to improve the understanding of the hydrology, geology, and land-surface characteristics of the Middle Rio Grande Basin. The primary objective of this study is to improve the understanding of the water resources of the basin. Of particular interest is to determine the extent of hydrologic connection between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer. Additionally, ground-water quality affects the availability of water supplies in the basin. Improving the existing USGS-constructed ground-water flow model of the Middle Rio Grande Basin will integrate all the various tasks that improve our knowledge of the various components of the Middle Rio Grande water budget. Part of this improvement will be accompanied by extended knowledge of the aquifer system beyond the Albuquerque area into the northern and southern reaches of the basin. Other improvements will be based on understanding gained through process-oriented research and improved geologic characterization of the deposits. The USGS and cooperating agencies will study the hydrology, geology, and land-surface characteristics of the basin to provide the scientific information needed for water-resources management and for managers to plan for water supplies needed for a growing population. To facilitate exchange of information among the scientists working on the Middle Rio Grande Basin study, yearly technical meetings have been held for each of the first 3 years of the anticipated 5-year study. These meetings provide an opportunity to present research results and plan new field efforts. This report documents the results of research presented at the third annual technical workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, February 24-25, 1999. The report is organized into this introduction and five chapters that focus on Middle Rio Grande Basin study investigations in progress in the Middle Rio Grande Basin. The first chapter describes geographic data and analysis efforts in the basin. The second chapter details work being done on the hydrogeologic and geologic framework of the basin. The third chapter describes studies on ground-water recharge in the basin. The fourth chapter provides details on the research on the ground-water flow system in the basin, including modeling efforts. The fifth chapter is devoted to an overview of New Mexico District Cooperative Program studies in the basin. The information in this report presents preliminary results of an evolving study. As the study progresses and individual projects publish their results in more detail, the USGS hopes to expand the scientific basis needed for management decisions regarding the Middle Rio Grande Basin.

Open-File Report

The acoustic streamflow-measuring system on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon

Records of discharge on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oreg., are vital to the management of the complex water-development projects in the Columbia River basin. Accurate discharge figures are needed for consistent day-to-day management and are required to meet treaty obligations with Canada. Because dams have been erected that completely control watersurface elevations at nearly all points in the river from Bonneville Dam to the Canadian border, conventional stream-gaging methods, used historically, are no longer adequate. Consequently, new techniques must be used to obtain the accurate discharge records required--records that are computed independently from the hydroelectric operation logs and that stand alone as the recognized flow records in the basin. This need for an accurate, independent gaging system has been met by the installation of an acoustic streamflow-measuring system in the river channel at The Dalles, Oreg. This device provides an index of water velocity by measuring the difference in traveltimes of acoustic pulses transmitted through the water in each direction along a diagonal path across the river. The flow of water along the path increases the speed of one signal and retards the speed of the other. The difference in time of travel is related linearly to the water velocity along the path. The velocity index and river stage are used as a two-variable index in the computation of flow. These variables, correlated against current-meter measurements made with specialized boat equipment, provide a reliable basis for computations of instantaneous and daily mean discharges. Installation of this sytem, which is the first application of an AVM (acoustic velocity meter) in a large natural channel, was completed in April 1969. It has been in continuous operation since that date. Performance has been satisfactory, and similar installations at other key points in the Columbia River basin are now under consideration. This paper covers the general theory behind acoustic velocity meters, tracing development from earlier concepts to the present commercially available system. Conclusions are that the AVM can now be considered as an operational instrument which permits accurate gaging of river discharge at many sites where conventional stream-gaging procedures have proved to be unreliable.

Oregon

Magnitude conversion and earthquake recurrence rate models for the central and eastern United States

Development of Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) models, which is an essential part of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA), can help forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of future damaging earthquakes (𝑀 w ≥ 5) in seismically active regions. Because it is impossible to associate all earthquakes with known faults, seismic source models for PSHA often include sources of diffuse seismicity in which future earthquake scenarios are not localized on mapped faults. These sources of diffuse seismicity are referred to as area source zones, distributed seismicity zones, or just source zones. During the early years of PSHA studies, it was assumed that earthquakes in seismotectonic zones have (1) uniform spatial distribution, (2) Poisson temporal distribution, and (3) exponential magnitude distribution (NRC, 2012). In seismically active regions (e.g., the Western United States), where active faults are readily identified, models of the spatial distribution of earthquakes include both the fault source geometries and the distributed seismicity (background) source zones. Source characterization of active faults is complemented by paleoseismic studies with estimates of earthquake magnitudes, dates of occurrences, and slip rates, which provide important information for PSHA studies. In the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) very few Quaternary-active faults have the requisite information for use in PSHA (i.e., fault geometry and dimensions, event rates or slip rates, etc.), and we lack knowledge about the causative faults for most observed seismicity in the region. As a result, area source zones are frequently used in site-specific PSHA in the CEUS to represent diffuse seismicity that cannot be associated with faults. However, there are examples of active fault sources in the CEUS, such as the Meers fault, the Cheraw fault, and New Madrid region, where individual faults can be characterized. The source characterization models for background seismicity are based, to a large extent, on an assumption that spatial distribution of historical and recorded seismicity will not change substantially for time periods of interest for PSHA (approximately the next 50-100 years for engineered structures). Furthermore, studies such as those by Kafka (2007, 2009) found a correlation between the locations of small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes and the locations of large-magnitude earthquakes, indicating that we can, with some level of confidence, use the spatial pattern of smaller earthquakes to forecast the future pattern of damaging earthquakes. Within background seismicity zones, the earthquake rate forecast is developed using spatial smoothing of the small to moderate magnitude events in earthquake catalogs. Different methodologies are used for this purpose and can predict varying distributions of seismicity rates. This in turn affects the results of a seismic hazard analysis. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) use different methods for computing spatially smoothed seismicity rates in the CEUS; the USGS uses kernel-based spatial smoothing methods in developing the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and the method adopted in the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization (CEUS-SSC) project is used when evaluating seismic hazard for nuclear power plant siting. These methods are described and the impact on seismic hazard are evaluated in this Research Information Letter (RIL). Another important input to estimating the rate of distributed seismicity is event magnitudes listed in earthquake catalogs. A substantial source of uncertainty in catalogs is the magnitude assigned to a given earthquake. Numerous different magnitude types exist, with each magnitude type computed in a different way. Therefore, for the sake of consistency, both the CEUS-SSC and the USGS NSHM have attempted to assemble a complete catalog with a uniform magnitude determination. To this end, moment magnitude, 𝑀 w , which is a physics-based measurement, has been adopted as the standard. However, 𝑀 w was not computed routinely until the past few decades. To address this issue, the CEUS-SSC conducted extensive analyses to determine conversion equations from which to take a routinely computed network (e.g., 𝑀 L or 𝑚 bLg ) and convert it into 𝑀 w . Another issue with using 𝑀 w is that it becomes increasingly difficult to compute for earthquakes with 𝑀 less than ~4. This study investigates the effects of moment magnitude estimation and spatial smoothing methods on estimation of the earthquake rate forecast and on seismic hazard. We investigate the validity of the magnitude conversion equations and their associated uncertainties by applying them to a case study for induced earthquakes in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and summarize the use of the decay of the seismic coda to estimate 𝑀 w for small earthquakes (𝑀 w < 4. Furthermore, the study documents a comparison and assessment of background seismicity smoothing methods implemented by the USGS for the NSHM and used by the CEUS-SSC for siting nuclear facilities based on probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from multiple source zones in the CEUS and for multiple sites.

central and eastern United States