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Conceptual models in exploration geochemistry-The Basin and Range Province of the Western United States and Northern Mexico

This summary of geochemical exploration in the Basin and Range Province is another in the series of reviews of geochemical-exploration applications covering a large region; this series began in 1975 with a summary for the Canadian Cordillera and Canadian Shield, and was followed in 1976 by a similar summary for Scandinavia (Norden). Rather than adhering strictly to the type of conceptual models applied in those papers, we have made use of generalized landscape geochemistry models related to the nature of concealment of ore deposits. This study is part of a continuing effort to examine and evaluate geochemical-exploration practices in different areas of the world. Twenty case histories of the application of geochemical exploration in both district and regional settings illustrate recent developments in techniques and approaches. Along with other published reports these case histories, exemplifying generalized models of concealed deposits, provide data used to evaluate geochemical-exploration programs and specific sample media. Because blind deposits are increasingly sought in the Basin and Range Province, the use of new sample media or anomaly-enhancement techniques is a necessity. Analysis of vapors or gases emanating from blind deposits is a promising new technique. Certain fractions of stream sediments show anomalies that are weak or not detected in conventional minus 80-mesh fractions. Multi-element analysis of mineralized bedrock may show zoning patterns that indicate depth or direction of ore. Examples of the application of these and other, more conventional methods are indicated in the case histories. The final section of this paper contains a brief evaluation of the applications of all types of sample media to geochemical exploration in the arid environment of the Basin and Range Province. ?? 1978.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration

Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement among models. High agreement also accompanies projections that the Chukchi Sea will be completely ice covered during February, March, and April at the end of the century. Large uncertainties, however, are associated with the timing and amount of partial ice cover during the intervening periods of melt and freeze. For the Bering Sea, median March ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979-1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century. The ice-free season in the Bering Sea is projected to increase from its contemporary average of 5.5 months to a median of about 8.5 months by the end of the century. A 3-month longer ice- free season in the Bering Sea is attained by a 1-month advance in melt and a 2-month delay in freeze, meaning the ice edge typically will pass through the Bering Strait in May and January at the end of the century rather than June and November as presently observed.

Alaska

TopoDrive and ParticleFlow--Two computer models for simulation and visualization of ground-water flow and transport of fluid particles in two dimensions

This report serves as a user?s guide for two computer models: TopoDrive and ParticleFlow. These two-dimensional models are designed to simulate two ground-water processes: topography-driven flow and advective transport of fluid particles. To simulate topography-driven flow, the user may specify the shape of the water table, which bounds the top of the vertical flow section. To simulate transport of fluid particles, the model domain is a rectangle with overall flow from left to right. In both cases, the flow is under steady state, and the distribution of hydraulic conductivity may be specified by the user. The models compute hydraulic head, ground-water flow paths, and the movement of fluid particles. An interactive visual interface enables the user to easily and quickly explore model behavior, and thereby better understand ground-water flow processes. In this regard, TopoDrive and ParticleFlow are not intended to be comprehensive modeling tools, but are designed for modeling at the exploratory or conceptual level, for visual demonstration, and for educational purposes.

Open-File Report

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards: a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico

Wildfire can drastically increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although there is no way to know the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire, or the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration before it happens, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for different locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling efforts. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious, potential, debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in the unburned Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The locations of the greatest debris-flow hazards correlate with the areas of steepest slopes and simulated crown-fire behavior. The four subbasins with the highest computed debris-flow probabilities (greater than 98 percent) were all in the Manzano Mountains, two flowing east and two flowing west. Volumes in sixteen subbasins were greater than 50,000 square meters and most of these were in the central Manzanos and the western facing slopes of the Sandias. Five subbasins on the west-facing slopes of the Sandia Mountains, four of which have downstream reaches that lead into the outskirts of the City of Albuquerque, are among subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings. The bulk of the remaining subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings are located along the highest and steepest slopes of the Manzano Mountains. One of the subbasins is several miles upstream from the community of Tajique and another is several miles upstream from the community of Manzano, both on the eastern slopes of the Manzano Mountains. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In northern New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being carried out to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was initiated to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

New Mexico

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon ( Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores ( I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO 2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO 2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

New Mexico

Conceptual understanding and groundwater quality of selected basin-fill aquifers in the Southwestern United States

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems in the southwestern United States (hereinafter, “Southwest”) since 2005. Part of the NAWQA Program, the objective of the Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is to develop a better understanding of water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the region by synthesizing information from case studies of 15 basins into a common set of important natural and human-related factors found to affect groundwater quality. The synthesis consists of three major components: 1. Summary of current knowledge about the groundwater systems, and the status of, changes in, and influential factors affecting quality of groundwater in basin-fill aquifers in 15 basins previously studied by NAWQA (this report). 2. Development of a conceptual model of the primary natural and human-related factors commonly affecting groundwater quality, thereby building a regional understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contaminants. 3. Development of statistical models that relate the concentration or occurrence of specific chemical constituents in groundwater to natural and human-related factors linked to the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to contamination. Basin-fill aquifers occur in about 200,000 mi 2 of the 410,000 mi 2 SWPA study area and are the primary source of groundwater supply for cities and agricultural communities. Four of the principal aquifers or aquifer systems of the United States are included in the basin-fill aquifers of the study area: (1) the Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona; (2) the Rio Grande aquifer system in New Mexico and Colorado; (3) the California Coastal Basin aquifers; and (4) the Central Valley aquifer system in California. Because of the generally limited availability of surface-water supplies in the arid to semiarid climate, cultural and economic activities in the Southwest are particularly dependent on supplies of good-quality groundwater. Irrigation and public-supply withdrawals from basin-fill aquifers in the study area account for about one quarter of the total withdrawals from all aquifers in the United States. Many factors influence the quality of groundwater in the 15 case-study basins, but some common factors emerge from the basin summaries presented in this report. These factors include the chemical composition of the recharge water, consolidated rock geology and composition of aquifer materials derived from consolidated rock, and land and water use. The major water-quality issues in many of the developed case-study basins are increased concentrations of dissolved solids, nitrate, and VOCs in groundwater as a result of human activities. The information presented and the citations listed in this report serve as a resource for those interested in the groundwater-flow systems in the NAWQA case-study basins. The summaries of water-development history, hydrogeology, conceptual understanding of the groundwater system under both predevelopment and modern conditions, and effects of natural and human-related factors on groundwater quality presented in the sections on each basin also serve as a foundation for the synthesis and modeling phases of the SWPA regional study.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

A catalogue of Do's and Don'ts in the modeling of environmental systems

Modeling plays a vital role in understanding and managing complex environmental systems, but its credibility and quality depend heavily on a comprehensive set of defensible model activities and practices, especially when the system of interest is plagued with uncertainties and conflicting stakeholder perspectives. This paper proposes a catalogue of Do's and Don'ts to guide modelers in addressing the many pertinent considerations through the whole modeling cycle. This practical tool provides advice on approaching modeling effectively through adhering to good modeling practice. It emphasizes model choices that align with the model purpose and context, and the justification and documentation of modeling decisions and assumptions. Managing uncertainty is a core consideration. The identification, assessment and reporting of these uncertainties is important across the entire modeling process, which spans problem framing, technical design, implementation and application phases. Such good practices are critical for transparency and reliability of the modeling.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Evaluation of unsaturated-zone solute-transport models for studies of agricultural chemicals

Seven unsaturated-zone solute-transport models were tested with two data sets to select models for use by the Agricultural Chemical Team of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The data sets were from a bromide tracer test near Merced, California, and an atrazine study in the White River Basin, Indiana. In this study the models are designated either as complex or simple based on the water flux algorithm. The complex models, HYDRUS2D, LEACHP, RZWQM, and VS2DT, use Richards' equation to simulate water flux and are well suited to process understanding. The simple models, CALF, GLEAMS, and PRZM, use a tipping-bucket algorithm and are more amenable to extrapolation because they require fewer input parameters. The purpose of this report is not to endorse a particular model, but to describe useful features, potential capabilities, and possible limitations that emerged from working with the model input data sets. More rigorous assessment of model applicability involves proper calibration, which was beyond the scope of this study. Uncalibrated ("cold") simulations were run using all seven models to predict the transport of bromide (Merced) and the transport and fate of atrazine and three of its transformation products (White River Basin). Among the complex models, HYDRUS2D successfully predicted both the surface retention and accumulation of bromide at depth at the Merced site, whereas RZWQM and VS2DT predicted only the latter. RZWQM predictions of atrazine were closest to observed values at the White River Basin site, where preferential flow has been observed. LEACHP predicted smaller solute concentrations than observed at both the Merced and White River Basin sites. Among the simple models, CALF predicted the highest values of atrazine and deethylatrazine at the measurement depth of 1.5 meters. CALF includes the Addiscott flow option for preferential flow, and also accepts user-specified dispersivity. PRZM underpredicted solute concentrations, probably because control of dispersion is a problem with this model. GLEAMS has a maximum simulation depth of 1.5 meters, which is limiting for mass-balance purposes because it creates a potential disconnect between unsaturated-zone transport and the water table. Of the models tested, RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, VS2DT, GLEAMS and PRZM had graphical user interfaces. Extensive documentation was available for RZWQM, HYDRUS2D, and VS2DT. RZWQM can explicitly simulate water and solute flux in macropores, and both HYDRUS2D and VS2DT can simulate water and solute flux in two dimensions. The version of RZWQM tested had a maximum simulation depth of 3 meters. The complex models simulate the formation, transport, and fate of degradates of up to three to five compounds including the parent, with the exception of VS2DT, which simulates the transport and fate of a single compound.

California, Indiana

A conceptual hydrogeologic model for the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, and groundwater-flow system of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

The Edwards-Trinity aquifer is a vital groundwater resource for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses in the Trans-Pecos region of west Texas. A conceptual model of the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, and groundwater-flow system in the 4,700 square-mile study area was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Middle Pecos Groundwater Conservation District, Pecos County, City of Fort Stockton, Brewster County, and Pecos County Water Control and Improvement District No. 1. The model was developed to gain a better understanding of the groundwater system and to establish a scientific foundation for resource-management decisions. Data and information were collected or obtained from various sources to develop the model. Lithologic information obtained from well reports and geophysical data were used to describe the hydrostratigraphy and structural features of the groundwater system, and aquifer-test data were used to estimate aquifer hydraulic properties. Groundwater-quality data were used to evaluate groundwater-flow paths, water and rock interaction, aquifer interaction, and the mixing of water from different sources. Groundwater-level data also were used to evaluate aquifer interaction as well as to develop a potentiometric-surface map, delineate regional groundwater divides, and describe regional groundwater-flow paths. Several previous studies have been done to compile or collect physical and chemical data, describe the hydrogeologic processes, and develop conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of the Edwards-Trinity aquifer in the Trans-Pecos region. Documented methods were used to compile and collect groundwater, surface-water, geochemical, geophysical, and geologic information that subsequently were used to develop this conceptual model.

Texas

A compartmentalized solute transport model for redox zones in contaminated aquifers: 2. Field‐scale simulations

This paper, the second of two parts [see Abrams and Loague , this issue], reports the field‐scale application of COMPTRAN (compartmentalized solute transport model) for simulating the development of redox zones. COMPTRAN is fully developed and described in the companion paper. Redox zones, which are often delineated by the relative concentrations of dissolved oxygen, have been observed around the globe. The distribution of other redox‐sensitive species is affected by redox zonation. At the U.S. Geological Survey's Cape Cod research site, an anoxic zone containing high concentrations of dissolved iron has been observed. Field data were abstracted from the Cape Cod site for the one‐dimensional and two‐dimensional COMPTRAN simulations reported in this paper. The purpose of the concept‐development simulations was to demonstrate that the compartmentalized approach reported by Abrams et al . [1998] can be linked with a solute transport model to simulate field‐scale phenomena. The results presented in this paper show that COMPTRAN successfully simulated the development of redox zones at the field scale, including trends in p H and alkalinity. Thermodynamic constraints were used to prevent lower‐energy redox reactions from occurring under infeasible geochemical conditions without imposing equilibrium among all redox species. Empirical methods of reaction inhibition were not needed for the simulations conducted for this study. COMPTRAN can be extended easily to include additional compartments and reactions and is capable of handling complex velocity fields in more than one dimension.

Water Resources Research

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2004

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing streamflow. In 2004, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Salmon River and Beaver, Pole, Champion, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Salmon River and Pole, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes Physical Habitat Simulation System modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Continuous summer water temperature data recorded in 2003 and streamflow relations were evaluated for Fourth of July Creek using the Stream Segment Temperature model that simulates mean and maximum daily water temperatures with changes in streamflow. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho

Simulating oil droplet dispersal from the Deepwater Horizon spill with a Lagrangian approach

An analytical multiphase plume model, combined with time-varying flow and hydrographic fields generated by the 3-D South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico model (SABGOM) hydrodynamic model, were used as input to a Lagrangian transport model (LTRANS), to simulate transport of oil droplets dispersed at depth from the recent Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill. The plume model predicts a stratification-dominated near field, in which small oil droplets detrain from the central plume containing faster rising large oil droplets and gas bubbles and become trapped by density stratification. Simulated intrusion (trap) heights of ∼ 310–370 m agree well with the midrange of conductivity-temperature-depth observations, though the simulated variation in trap height was lower than observed, presumably in part due to unresolved variability in source composition (percentage oil versus gas) and location (multiple leaks during first half of spill). Simulated droplet trajectories by the SABGOM-LTRANS modeling system showed that droplets with diameters between 10 and 50 μm formed a distinct subsurface plume, which was transported horizontally and remained in the subsurface for >1 month. In contrast, droplets with diameters ≥90 μm rose rapidly to the surface. Simulated trajectories of droplets ≤50 μm in diameter were found to be consistent with field observations of a southwest-tending subsurface plume in late June 2010 reported by Camilli et al. [2010]. Model results suggest that the subsurface plume looped around to the east, with potential subsurface oil transport to the northeast and southeast. Ongoing work is focusing on adding degradation processes to the model to constrain droplet dispersal.

Gulf Of Mexico

Map showing drill-hole depths, lithologic intercepts, and partial isopachs of basin fill in the Winnemucca 1 degree by 2 degrees quadrangle, Nevada

The purpose of this map is to aid in the mineral-resource assessment and exploration of covered host rocks by displaying and interpreting data that can be used to estimate the depth of basin fill in the Winnemucca 1° by 2° quadrangle, Nevada. Publicly available information used in making this map includes water, petroleum, and geothermal well data, gravity data and models, seismic profiles, and geologic and geomorphic reports. Wells logs used for this map of the Winnemucca quadrangle are from the following sources: (1) logs of more than 1,000 water wells reported to the State of Nevada Division of Water Resources, which are on file with them in Reno and at the with U.S. Geological Survey in Carson City, (2) 44 petroleum wells collected by the Nevada Bureau of Mines (Lintz, 1957; Schilling and Garside, 1968; Garside and Schilling, 1977, Garside and others, 1977; 1988), and (3) Two geothermal wells reported in Zoback (1979) and Flynn and others (1982). Data from isostatic residual and Bouguer gravity maps by Wagini (1985) contributed to the interpretation of basin configuration. Gravity models of Dixie Valley (Schaefer, 1982, and Speed, 1976) and Grass Valley (Grannell and Noble, 1977) and seismic profiles of Grass and Pine Valleys (Potter and others, 1987) helped refine basis interpretations in those areas. The geologic base map of Paleozoic and Mesozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks, Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks, and Cenozoic structures was simplified from Stewart and Carlson (1976b).

Nevada

Box Model of a Series of Salt Ponds, as Applied to the Alviso Salt Pond Complex, South San Francisco Bay, California

This report documents the development and application of a box model to simulate water level, salinity, and temperature of the Alviso Salt Pond Complex in South San Francisco Bay. These ponds were purchased for restoration in 2003 and currently are managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to maintain existing wildlife habitat and prevent a build up of salt during the development of a long-term restoration plan. The model was developed for the purpose of aiding pond managers during the current interim management period to achieve these goals. A previously developed box model of a salt pond, SPOOM, which calculates daily pond volume and salinity, was reconfigured to simulate multiple connected ponds and a temperature subroutine was added. The updated model simulates rainfall, evaporation, water flowing between the ponds and the adjacent tidal slough network, and water flowing from one pond to the next by gravity and pumps. Theoretical and measured relations between discharge and corresponding differences in water level are used to simulate most flows between ponds and between ponds and sloughs. The principle of conservation of mass is used to calculate daily pond volume and salinity. The model configuration includes management actions specified in the Interim Stewardship Plan for the ponds. The temperature subroutine calculates hourly net heat transfer to or from a pond resulting in a rise or drop in pond temperature and daily average, minimum, and maximum pond temperatures are recorded. Simulated temperature was compared with hourly measured data from pond 3 of the Napa?Sonoma Salt Pond Complex and monthly measured data from pond A14 of the Alviso Salt-Pond Complex. Comparison showed good agreement of measured and simulated pond temperature on the daily and monthly time scales.

Scientific Investigations Report

Blind comparisons of shear-wave velocities at closely-spaced sites in San Jose, California: Proceedings of a Workshop held at the US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, May 3, 2004

Shear-wave velocities within several hundred meters of Earth's surface are important in specifying earthquake ground motions for engineering design. Not only are the shearwave velocities used in classifying sites for use of modern building codes, but they are also used in site-specific studies of particularly significant structures. Many are the methods for estimating sub-surface shear-wave velocities, but few are the blind comparisons of a number of the methods at a single site. The word "blind" is important here and means that the measurements and interpretations are done completely independent of one another. Stephen Hartzell of the USGS office on Golden, Colorado realized that such an experiment would be very useful for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the various methods, and he and Jack Boatwright of the USGS office in Menlo Park, California, in cooperation with Carl Wentworth of the Menlo Park USGS office found a convenient site in the city of San Jose, California. The site had good access and space for conducting experiments, and a borehole drilled to several hundred meters by the Santa Clara Valley Water District was made available for downhole logging. Jack Boatwright asked David Boore to coordinate the experiment. In turn, David Boore persuaded several teams to make measurements, helped with the local logistics, collected the results, and organized and conducted an International Workshop in May, 2004. At this meeting the participants in the experiment gathered in Menlo Park to describe their measurements and interpretations, and to see the results of the comparisons of the various methods for the first time. This Open-File Report describes the results of that workshop. One of the participants, Michael Asten, offered to help the coordinator prepare this report. Because of his lead role in pulling the report together, Dr. Asten is the lead author of the paper to follow and is also the lead Compiler for the Open-File Report. It is important to recognize that most of the participants in the experiments contributed at their own expense. It is gratifying that many people recognized the importance of the experiment and were willing to volunteer their time and resources. We thank them for this effort. This Report is organized in three parts: the first part is a paper summarizing the results of the Workshop, and presenting some conclusions regarding the various methods; the second part is a compilation of those documents describing the experiments that were presented at the meeting (a few of the reports have had minor post-meeting revisions, but with only one exception noted later, none of the models were changed). The final part of this Report is a compilation of the presentations from the meeting -- these are largely in the form of Powerpoint files. No attempt has been made by the compilers to edit the material in parts 2 and 3. It is included here as is for the benefit of the reader.

California

Preliminary Gravity and Ground Magnetic Data in the Arbuckle Uplift near Sulphur, Oklahoma

Improving knowledge of the geology and geophysics of the Arbuckle Uplift in south-central Oklahoma is a goal of the Framework Geology of Mid-Continent Carbonate Aquifers project sponsored by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP). In May 2007, we collected ground magnetic and gravity observations in the Hunton Anticline region of the Arbuckle Uplift, near Sulphur, Oklahoma. These observations complement prior gravity data collected for a project sponsored by the National Park Service and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) and aeromagnetic data collected in March 2007 for the NCGMP project. This report describes the instrumentation and processing that was utilized in the May 2007 geophysical fieldwork, and it presents preliminary results as gravity anomaly maps and magnetic anomaly profiles. Digital tables of gravity and magnetic observations are provided as a supplement to this report. Future work will generate interpretive models of these anomalies and will involve joint analysis of these ground geophysical measurements with airborne and other geophysical and geological observations, with the goal of understanding the geological structures influencing the hydrologic properties of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer.

Open-File Report

Hydraulic and Geomorphic Assessment of the Merced River and Historic Bridges in Eastern Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California: Sacramento, California

The Merced River in the popular and picturesque eastern-most part of Yosemite Valley in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, has been extensively altered since the park was first conceived in 1864. Historical human trampling of streambanks has been suggested as the cause of substantial increases in stream width, and the construction of undersized stone bridges in the 1920s has been suggested as the major factor leading to an increase in overbank flooding due to deposition of bars and islands between the bridges. In response, the National Park Service at Yosemite National Park (YNP) requested a study of the hydraulic and geomorphic conditions affecting the most-heavily influenced part of the river, a 2.4-km reach in eastern Yosemite Valley extending from above the Tenaya Creek and Merced River confluence to below Housekeeping Bridge. As part of the study, present-day conditions were compared to historical conditions and several possible planning scenarios were investigated, including the removal of an elevated road berm and the removal of three undersized historic stone bridges identified by YNP as potential problems: Sugar Pine, Ahwahnee and Stoneman Bridges. This Open-File Report will be superseded at a later date by a Scientific Investigations Report. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the USGS FaSTMECH (Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels) model, within the USGS International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) model framework, was used to compare the scenarios over a range of discharges with annual exceedance probabilities of 50-, 20-, 10-, and 5- percent. A variety of topographic and hydraulic data sources were used to create the input conditions to the hydrodynamic model, including aerial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging), ground-based LiDAR, total station survey data, and grain size data from pebble counts. A digitized version of a historical topographic map created by the USGS in 1919, combined with estimates of grain size, was used to simulate historical conditions, and the planning scenarios were developed by altering the present-day topography. Roughness was estimated independently of measured water-surface elevations by using the mapped grain-size data and the Keulegan relation of grain size to drag coefficient. The FaSTMECH hydrodynamic model was evaluated against measured water levels by using a 130.9 m 3 s -1 flow (approximately a 33-percent annual exceedance probability flood) with 36 water-surface elevations measured by YNP personnel on June 8, 2010. This evaluation run had a root mean square error of 0.21 m between the simulated- and observed water-surface elevations (less than 10 percent of depth), though the observed water-surface elevations had relatively high variation due to the strong diurnal stage changes over the course of the 4.4-hour collection period, during which discharge varied by about 15 percent. There are presently no velocity data with which to test the model. A geomorphic assessment was performed that consisted of an estimate of the magnitude and frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport at “Tenaya Bar”, an important gravel-cobble bar located near the upstream end of the study site that determines the amount of flow across the floodplain at the Sugar Pine – Ahwahnee bend. An analysis of select repeat cross-sections collected by YNP since the late 1980s was done to investigate changes in channel cross-sectional area near the Tenaya Bar site. The results of the FaSTMECH models indicate that the maximum velocities in the present-day channel within the study reach are associated with Stoneman and Sugar Pine Bridges, at close to 3.0 m s -1 for the 5-percent annual exceedance probability flood. The modeled maximum velocities at Ahwahnee Bridge are comparatively low, at between 1.5 and 2.0 m s -1 , most likely due to the bridge's orientation parallel to down-valley floodplain flows. The results of the FaSTMECH models for the bridge removal scenarios indicate a reduction in average velocity at the bridge sites for the range of flows by approximately 23-38 percent (Sugar Pine Bridge), 32-42 percent (Ahwahnee Bridge), and 33-39 percent (Stoneman Bridge), though a side channel of concern to YNP management did not appear to be substantially affected by the removal scenarios. In comparison to the historical data, the FaSTMECH results suggest that flows for present-day conditions do not inundate the floodplain until between the 50- and 20-percent annual exceedance probability flood, whereas historically, a large portion of the floodplain was inundated during the 50-percent annual exceedance probability flood. Modeled maximum velocities in the present-day channel commonly exceed 2.0 m s -1 , whereas with the historical scenario, modeled maximum in-channel velocities rarely exceeded 2.0 m s -1 . The geomorphic analysis of the magnitude-frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that at the important Tenaya Bar site, the majority of bed sediment is mobile during most snowmelt-dominated floods. In contrast to sediment transport capacity, the analysis of repeat cross-sections suggests that bedload sediment supply into the eastern Yosemite Valley may be quite different between rain-on-snow floods and snowmelt-dominated floods, potentially with most sediment supply occurring during rain-on-snow floods, such as the 1997 flood. In contrast, the magnitude-frequency analysis of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that long-term bedload sediment transport is likely dominated by snowmelt floods, and suspended-sediment transport is relatively low compared to bedload transport. Obtaining measured velocity data throughout the study reach would aid in model calibration, and thus would improve confidence in model results. Improved confidence in the model velocity results would allow additional substantial analyses of reach-scale effects of the planning scenarios and would enable the development of geomorphic models to evaluate the long-term geomorphic responses of the site. In addition, the collection of watershed sediment-supply data, about which little is presently known, would give planners helpful tools to plan restoration scenarios for this nationally important river.

California

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July–December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July–December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July–December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

eLife