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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Forecasting for dry and wet avalanches during mixed rain and snow storm events

Natural wet slab avalanches release when rain or melt water decreases snowpack strength, and natural dry slab avalanches release when an increased load overcomes snowpack strength. This study investigates avalanche activity resulting from mixed rain and snow falling on a faceted snowpack. This scenario produced an extensive slab avalanche cycle in March 2018 in the mountains near Ketchum, Idaho, when a 24 hour storm deposited 50 to 65 mm of water. We investigate the contributions of the pre-existing snowpack structure and weather to avalanching, and suggest possible mechanisms for the observed slab avalanche activity. At upper elevations, expected widespread, 0.5 to 3 m deep, dry slab avalanche activity occurred on many aspects. However, at middle elevations (2300 m to 2700 m) near the fluctuating rain-snow line, a low frequency return period avalanche cycle occurred in a much smaller geographical area, and was concentrated around north-northwest aspects. This differs significantly from avalanches above this elevation that spanned all aspects. This scenario illustrates the challenges forecasting and communicating these events. In our experience, some avalanche cycles exist in a continuum of avalanche types that are not easily sorted into simple “wet” and “dry” categories. We discuss challenges in using current advisory and bulletin communication tools. Furthermore, it is possible that a changing climate will increase the frequency of mixed rain-snow events in areas with traditionally drier and colder climates. We believe the avalanche community will benefit from the refinement and development of tools and techniques to describe and forecast this challenging problem.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2005

Benthic habitats and the effects of fishing: Linking geology, biology, socioeconomics, and management in fisheries: An introduction

Fishery resource managers face the challenge of ensuring sustainable fisheries and maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems. This challenge can be met by advancing the scientific knowledge available to resource managers to evaluate and appropriately manage fishing activities that affect benthic habitats. Government agencies have been working to develop benthic habitat research initiatives focused on the effects of fishing gear and the linkage between biological resources and the geology of benthic habitats. This book provides the broad understanding of the effects of fishing activities on benthic habitats necessary to address the pressing issues of habitat alteration that challenge managers, practitioners, and ocean scientists.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2022

Applying consequence-driven scenario selection to lifelines

We present a new consequence-driven framework for earthquake scenario selection. For emergency managers, utility operators, policy makers, and other stakeholders, a scenario-based seismic risk assessment is often necessary for the purpose of emergency management and planning. In developing a scientifically defensible scenario, stakeholders can simulate a realistic event in order to pre-identify vulnerabilities in the system and support action to address these vulnerabilities. Selecting scenarios is particularly challenging for important population centers and critical infrastructure in stable tectonic environments, such as in the central and eastern United States, where uncertain long-term seismicity and unknown faults offer inadequate constraints. Notably, significant events in these so-called stable regions do occur (e.g., Nahanni, Canada, 1985, M6.9; Tennant Creek, Australia, 1998, M6.7). In regions of low seismicity, even moderate events can be consequential due to the higher vulnerability of buildings typical of such regions when compared to regions of higher seismicity. Furthermore, communicating seismic risk to stakeholders and the general public in these regions can be especially challenging due to the complexities of characterizing the hazard level. This framework has been developed to address these challenges for scenario selection in low seismic hazard regions. In this new approach, the analysis begins instead with the explicit definition of a consequence of concern to the specific stakeholder. This can range from a definition of loss (in lives, dollars, or another metric of interest), or a performance metric for critical infrastructure. The framework leverages United States Geological Survey software to run the hazard and consequence analysis. Driven by this stakeholder-defined consequence, an inversion analysis generates a complete event set of candidate scenarios that could breach this consequence. The final selection of a scenario, or family of scenarios, is then scientifically informed, but not limited by our lack of constraints in characterizing the hazard.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Workshop: Nature-based solutions to ecological and economic problems caused by extreme precipitation events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate by using these natural solutions, however, they require accurate information about the projected increase in extreme rainfall events and the effectiveness and costs of a variety of solutions. To provide this information, researchers must understand the decisions that managers are making and the challenges they face. In this project, researchers will host a workshop to facilitate knowledge sharing between natural resource managers, climate modelers, and scientists studying natural solutions. Participants will discuss climate projections related to extreme precipitation events in the region, as well as the management implications and decision-making challenges associated with these events. These conversations will cultivate collaborative relationships between managers and researchers to address critical knowledge gaps and improve future management efforts in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Upper Mississippi River basin↗
USGS2015

Organic contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface: evolution of knowledge and understanding

Toxic organic contaminants may enter the subsurface as slightly soluble and volatile nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) or as dissolved solutes resulting in contaminant plumes emanating from the source zone. A large body of research published in Water Resources Research has been devoted to characterizing and understanding processes controlling the transport and fate of these organic contaminants and the effectiveness of natural attenuation, bioremediation, and other remedial technologies. These contributions include studies of NAPL flow, entrapment, and interphase mass transfer that have advanced from the analysis of simple systems with uniform properties and equilibrium contaminant phase partitioning to complex systems with pore-scale and macroscale heterogeneity and rate-limited interphase mass transfer. Understanding of the fate of dissolved organic plumes has advanced from when biodegradation was thought to require oxygen to recognition of the importance of anaerobic biodegradation, multiple redox zones, microbial enzyme kinetics, and mixing of organic contaminants and electron acceptors at plume fringes. Challenges remain in understanding the impacts of physical, chemical, biological, and hydrogeological heterogeneity, pore-scale interactions, and mixing on the fate of organic contaminants. Further effort is needed to successfully incorporate these processes into field-scale predictions of transport and fate. Regulations have greatly reduced the frequency of new point-source contamination problems; however, remediation at many legacy plumes remains challenging. A number of fields of current relevance are benefiting from research advances from point-source contaminant research. These include geologic carbon sequestration, nonpoint-source contamination, aquifer storage and recovery, the fate of contaminants from oil and gas development, and enhanced bioremediation.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2015

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Water quality data for national-scale aquatic research: The Water Quality Portal

Aquatic systems are critical to food, security, and society. But, water data are collected by hundreds of research groups and organizations, many of which use nonstandard or inconsistent data descriptions and dissemination, and disparities across different types of water observation systems represent a major challenge for freshwater research. To address this issue, the Water Quality Portal (WQP) was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Water Quality Monitoring Council to be a single point of access for water quality data dating back more than a century. The WQP is the largest standardized water quality data set available at the time of this writing, with more than 290 million records from more than 2.7 million sites in groundwater, inland, and coastal waters. The number of data contributors, data consumers, and third-party application developers making use of the WQP is growing rapidly. Here we introduce the WQP, including an overview of data, the standardized data model, and data access and services; and we describe challenges and opportunities associated with using WQP data. We also demonstrate through an example the value of the WQP data by characterizing seasonal variation in lake water clarity for regions of the continental U.S. The code used to access, download, analyze, and display these WQP data as shown in the figures is included as supporting information.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Can beaches survive climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2022

Intra-site sources of restoration variability in severely invaded rangeland: Strong temporal effects of herbicide-weather interactions; weak spatial effects of plant-community patch type and litter

Invasions by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are replacing native perennials in semiarid areas globally, including the vast sagebrush-steppe rangelands of western North America. Efforts to eradicate EAGs and restore perennials have had mixed success, especially in relatively warm and dry areas where EAGs had high dominance prior to intervention. Greater consideration of the ecological sources of variability in EAG treatment outcomes may improve success. We hypothesized that herbicide and restoration outcomes would be influenced by restoration strategy (type of herbicide, seeding or planting, timing of treatment) and underlying spatial variability associated with plant community patch type and litter, all applied in a landscape-scale experiment in a severely invaded area in Southern Idaho, USA. EAGs, specifically medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae [L.] Nevski), were strongly reduced for up to 3 years (maximum observation period) by the pre-emergent herbicide indaziflam, whereas the pre/post-emergent imazapic reduced EAGs only when applied twice. Indaziflam effects were greater when post-spray moisture was greater, and also when co-applied with imazapic, but reapplying indaziflam did not lead to additional reduction of EAGs. Imazapic and indaziflam each stimulated species-specific, secondary invasion by exotic and/or invasive tall forbs. Application of the broadleaf herbicide aminopyralid provided only a fleeting 1 year of control of a dominant, highly noxious forb skeletonweed ( Chondrilla juncea L.). Underlying heterogeneity in plant community patch type (dominant herb species) explained only ∼5% of variation in the herbicide effects, and manipulation of litter prior to spraying had no effect. Several years of seedings and planting resulted in no establishment of native perennials. Herbicides, especially indaziflam, appear to be an effective tool for reducing EAGs for multiple years in the challenging restoration conditions we evaluated, particularly if their application coincides with suitable moisture. However, restoring the perennials required for longer term resistance to reinvasion is a serious challenge that could be avoided with preservation of perennials.

Idaho↗
USGS2024

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary-spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary-spanning activities could support proactive, research-informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary-spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non-members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non-members and short-term members more frequently identifying range-shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long-term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range-shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real-world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary-spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗
USGS2015

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Brown trout as an invader: A synthesis of problems and perspectives in western North America

Brown trout are one of the most pervasive and successful invaders worldwide and are ubiquitous across the Intermountain West, USA (IMW). This species is the foundation of extremely popular and economically significant sport fisheries despite well-established negative effects on native fishes and ecosystems, resulting in very challenging, and often opposing, conservation and management goals. Herein, we review the direct (e.g., competition and predation) and indirect (e.g., disease vectors) pathways through which brown trout across the IMW have posed a threat to native species. We discuss the importance of brown trout as economically and culturally important fisheries, especially in novel tailwater ecosystems created by damming. To this end, we surveyed 24 experts from eight states across the IMW to document the relevance of novel brown trout fisheries in 51 tailwaters and found brown trout are thriving in these novel ecosystems, which are often unsuitable for native fishes. We discuss the challenging interplay between protecting native species and managing novel brown trout fisheries. Notably, the future of exotic brown trout in the IMW is shifting as the prestige of native fisheries is growing and many non-native eradication efforts have occurred. The future of exotic brown trout in the IMW, will depend on the nexus of public sentiment and policy, the effectiveness of eradication efforts, and the effect of climate change on both the native fishes and exotic brown trout. Regardless, because brown trout are pervasive and have a broad distribution through the IMW, populations of this species will likely persist at least in some locations into the future.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Developing a landscape‐scale, multi‐species, and cost‐efficient conservation strategy for imperilled aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin, USA

Strategic conservation of imperilled species faces several major challenges including uncertainty in species response to management actions, budgetary constraints that limit options, and the need to scale expected conservation benefits from local to landscape levels and from single to multiple species. A structured decision‐making process was applied to address these challenges and identify a cost‐effective conservation strategy for the Federally listed endangered and threatened aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). The UTRB, which encompasses a landscape of ~58 000 km 2 , primarily in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and south‐western Virginia, harbours one of the most globally diverse assemblages of freshwater fishes and mussels at temperate latitudes. To develop a strategy for conservation of 12 fish species and 24 mussel species over a 20‐year period, a management strategy that would best recover these species was identified given costs and uncertainty in management effectiveness. The main insights came from a trade‐off analysis that compared alternative allocations of effort among management actions. A strategy emphasizing population management, which included propagation and translocation, performed best across a wide range of objective weightings and was robust to uncertainty in management effectiveness. Species prioritization was based on the expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy, degree of imperilment, and species‐specific management costs. Sub‐basin prioritization was based on expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy and feasibility of habitat management and threat abatement. Although the strategy was developed for imperilled aquatic species in the UTRB, the structured process is applicable for developing cost‐efficient strategies to conserve multiple species across a landscape under uncertain management effectiveness. The process can assist a manager with limited resources to understand which species to work on, where to conduct that work, and what work would be most beneficial for those species in those catchments.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennes↗
USGS2018

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life‐history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow‐dominated to rain‐dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post‐metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species’ life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage‐based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed‐specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84–1.13), but predict that λ s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Refinement of eDNA as an early monitoring tool at the landscape-level: Study design considerations

Natural resource managers use data on the spatial range of species to guide management decisions. These data come from survey or monitoring efforts that use a wide variety of tools. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a surveillance tool that uses genetic markers for detecting species and holds potential as a tool for large-scale monitoring programs. Two challenges of eDNA-based studies are uncertainties created by imperfect capture of eDNA in collection samples (e.g., water field samples) and imperfect detection of eDNA using molecular methods (e.g., quantitative PCR). Occurrence models can be used to address these challenges, thus we use an occurrence model to address two objectives: First, determine how many samples were required to detect species using eDNA; Second, examine when and where to take samples. We collected water samples from three different habitat types in the Upper Mississippi River when both Bighead Carp and Silver Carp were known to be present based on telemetry detections. Each habitat type (backwater, tributary, and impoundment) was sampled during April, May and November. Detections of eDNA for both species varied across sites and months, but were generally low, 0 - 19.3% of samples were positive for eDNA. Overall, we found that eDNA-based sampling holds promise to be a powerful monitoring tool for resource managers, however, limitations of eDNA-based sampling include different biological and ecological characteristics of target species such as seasonal habitat usage patterns as well as aspects of different physical environments that impact the implementation of these methods such as water temperature.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Increasing comparability among coral bleaching experiments

Coral bleaching is the single largest global threat to coral reefs worldwide. Integrating the diverse body of work on coral bleaching is critical to understanding and combating this global problem. Yet investigating the drivers, patterns, and processes of coral bleaching poses a major challenge. A recent review of published experiments revealed a wide range of experimental variables used across studies. Such a wide range of approaches enhances discovery, but without full transparency in the experimental and analytical methods used, can also make comparisons among studies challenging. To increase comparability but not stifle innovation, we propose a common framework for coral bleaching experiments that includes consideration of coral provenance, experimental conditions, and husbandry. For example, reporting the number of genets used, collection site conditions, the experimental temperature offset(s) from the maximum monthly mean (MMM) of the collection site, experimental light conditions, flow, and the feeding regime will greatly facilitate comparability across studies. Similarly, quantifying common response variables of endosymbiont (Symbiodiniaceae) and holobiont phenotypes (i.e., color, chlorophyll, endosymbiont cell density, mortality, and skeletal growth) could further facilitate cross-study comparisons. While no single bleaching experiment can provide the data necessary to determine global coral responses of all corals to current and future ocean warming, linking studies through a common framework as outlined here, would help increase comparability among experiments, facilitate synthetic insights into the causes and underlying mechanisms of coral bleaching, and reveal unique bleaching responses among genets, species, and regions. Such a collaborative framework that fosters transparency in methods used would strengthen comparisons among studies that can help inform coral reef management and facilitate conservation strategies to mitigate coral bleaching worldwide.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of camera trap-based abundance estimators for unmarked populations

Estimates of species abundance are critical to understand population processes and to assess and select management actions. However, capturing and marking individuals for abundance estimation, while providing robust information, can be economically and logistically prohibitive, particularly for species with cryptic behavior. Camera traps can be used to collect data at temporal and spatial scales necessary for estimating abundance, but the use of camera traps comes with limitations when target species are not uniquely identifiable (i.e., “unmarked”). Abundance estimation is particularly useful in the management of invasive species, with herpetofauna being recognized as some of the most pervasive and detrimental invasive vertebrate species. However, the use of camera traps for these taxa presents additional challenges with relevancy across multiple taxa. It is often necessary to use lures to attract animals in order to obtain sufficient observations, yet lure attraction can influence species’ landscape use and potentially induce bias in abundance estimators. We investigated these challenges and assessed the feasibility of obtaining reliable abundance estimates using camera-trapping data on a population of invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) in Guam. Data were collected using camera traps in an enclosed area where snakes were subject to high-intensity capture–recapture effort, resulting in presumed abundance of 116 snakes (density = 23/ha). We then applied spatial count, random encounter and staying time, space to event, and instantaneous sampling estimators to photo-capture data to estimate abundance and compared estimates to our presumed abundance. We found that all estimators for unmarked populations performed poorly, with inaccurate or imprecise abundance estimates that limit their usefulness for management in this system. We further investigated the sensitivity of these estimators to the use of lures (i.e., violating the assumption that animal behavior is unchanged by sampling) and camera density in a simulation study. Increasing the effective distances of a lure (i.e., lure attraction) and camera density both resulted in biased abundance estimates. Each estimator rarely recovered truth or suffered from convergence issues. Our results indicate that, when limited to unmarked estimators and the use of lures, camera traps alone are unlikely to produce abundance estimates with utility for brown treesnake management.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2022

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Ecological Applications↗