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A framework for assessing the sustainability of monitored natural attenuation

The sustainability of monitored natural attenuation (MNA) over time depends upon (1) the presence of chemical/biochemical processes that transform wastes to innocuous byproducts, and (2) the availability of energy to drive these processes to completion. The presence or absence of contaminant-transforming chemical/biochemical processes can be determined by observing contaminant mass loss over time and space (mass balance). The energy available to drive these processes to completion can be assessed by measuring the pool of metabolizable organic carbon available in a system, and by tracing the flow of this energy to available electron acceptors (energy balance). For the special case of chlorinated ethenes in ground-water systems, for which a variety of contaminant-transforming biochemical processes exist, natural attenuation is sustainable when the pool of bioavailable organic carbon is large relative to the carbon flux needed to drive biodegradation to completion. These principles are illustrated by assessing the sustainability of MNA at a chlorinated ethene-contaminated site in Kings Bay, Georgia. Approximately 1,000 kilograms of perchloroethene (PCE) was released to a municipal landfill in the 1978-1980 timeframe, and the resulting plume of chlorinated ethenes migrated toward a nearby housing development. A numerical model, built using the sequential electron acceptor model code (SEAM3D), was used to quantify mass and energy balance in this system. The model considered the dissolution of non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) as the source of the PCE, and was designed to trace energy flow from dissolved organic carbon to available electron acceptors in the sequence oxygen > chlorinated ethenes > ferric iron > sulfate > carbon dioxide. The model was constrained by (1) comparing simulated and measured rates of ground-water flow, (2) reproducing the observed distribution of electron-accepting processes in the aquifer, (3) comparing observed and measured concentrations of chlorinated ethenes, and (4) reproducing the observed production and subsequent dilution of dissolved chloride, a final degradation product of chloroethene biodegradation. Simulations using the constrained model indicated that an average flux of 5 milligrams per liter per day of organic carbon (CH2O) per model cell (25 square meters) is required to support the short-term sustainability of MNA. Because this flux is small relative to the pool of renewable organic carbon (about 4.7 x 107 milligrams [mg] per model cell) present in the soil zone and non-renewable carbon (about 6.9 x 108 mg per model cell) in an organic-rich sediment layer overlying the aquifer, the long-term sustainability of MNA is similarly large. This study illustrates that the short- and long-term sustainability of MNA can be assessed by: 1. Estimating the time required for contaminants to dissolve/disperse/degrade under ambient hydrologic conditions (time of remediation). 2. Quantifying the organic carbon flux to the system needed to consume competing electron acceptors (oxygen) and direct electron flow toward chloroethene degradation (short-term sustainability). 3. Comparing the required flux of organic carbon to the pool of renewable and non-renewable organic carbon given the estimated time of remediation (long-term sustainability). These are general principles that can be used to assess the sustainability of MNA in any hydrologic system.

Circular

Areas of historical oil and gas exploration and production in the United States

This report contains maps and associated spatial data showing historical oil and gas exploration and production in the United States. Because of the proprietary nature of many oil and gas well databases, the United States was divided into cells one-quarter square mile and the production status of all wells in a given cell was aggregated. Base-map reference data are included, using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Map, the USGS and American Geological Institute (AGI) Global GIS, and a World Shaded Relief map service from the ESRI Geography Network. A hardcopy map was created to synthesize recorded exploration data from 1859, when the first oil well was drilled in the U.S., to 2005. In addition to the hardcopy map product, the data have been refined and made more accessible through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. The cell data are included in a GIS database constructed for spatial analysis via the USGS Internet Map Service or by importing the data into GIS software such as ArcGIS. The USGS internet map service provides a number of useful and sophisticated geoprocessing and cartographic functions via an internet browser. Also included is a video clip of U.S. oil and gas exploration and production through time.

Data Series

Map of assessed shale gas in the United States, 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey has compiled a map of shale-gas assessments in the United States that were completed by 2012 as part of the National Assessment of Oil and Gas Project. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey quantitatively estimated potential volumes of undiscovered gas within shale-gas assessment units. These shale-gas assessment units are mapped, and square-mile cells are shown to represent proprietary shale-gas wells. The square-mile cells include gas-producing wells from shale intervals. In some cases, shale-gas formations contain gas in deeper parts of a basin and oil at shallower depths (for example, the Woodford Shale and the Eagle Ford Shale). Because a discussion of shale oil is beyond the scope of this report, only shale-gas assessment units and cells are shown. The map can be printed as a hardcopy map or downloaded for interactive analysis in a Geographic Information System data package using the ArcGIS map document (file extension MXD) and published map file (file extension PMF). Also available is a publications access table with hyperlinks to current U.S. Geological Survey shale gas assessment publications and web pages. Assessment results and geologic reports are available as completed at the U.S. Geological Survey Energy Resources Program Web Site, http://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/AssessmentsData/NationalOilGasAssessment.aspx. A historical perspective of shale gas activity in the United States is documented and presented in a video clip included as a PowerPoint slideshow.

Data Series

Groundwater-quality data in the Monterey–Salinas shallow aquifer study unit, 2013: Results from the California GAMA Program

Groundwater quality in the 3,016-square-mile Monterey–Salinas Shallow Aquifer study unit was investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from October 2012 to May 2013 as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program’s Priority Basin Project. The GAMA Monterey–Salinas Shallow Aquifer study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality in the shallow-aquifer systems in parts of Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of untreated-groundwater quality throughout California. The shallow-aquifer system in the Monterey–Salinas Shallow Aquifer study unit was defined as those parts of the aquifer system shallower than the perforated depth intervals of public-supply wells, which generally corresponds to the part of the aquifer system used by domestic wells. Groundwater quality in the shallow aquifers can differ from the quality in the deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater can be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. Samples were collected from 170 sites that were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method. The study unit was divided into 4 study areas, each study area was divided into grid cells, and 1 well was sampled in each of the 100 grid cells (grid wells). The grid wells were domestic wells or wells with screen depths similar to those in nearby domestic wells. A greater spatial density of data was achieved in 2 of the study areas by dividing grid cells in those study areas into subcells, and in 70 subcells, samples were collected from exterior faucets at sites where there were domestic wells or wells with screen depths similar to those in nearby domestic wells (shallow-well tap sites). Field water-quality indicators (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, and specific conductance) were measured, and samples for analysis of inorganic constituents (trace elements, nutrients, major and minor ions, silica, total dissolved solids, and alkalinity) were collected at all 170 sites. In addition to these constituents, the samples from grid wells were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds, pesticides and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate and N -nitrosodimethylamine, or NDMA), radioactive constituents (radon-222 and gross-alpha and gross-beta radioactivity), and geochemical and age-dating tracers (stable isotopes of carbon in dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 abundances, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, and tritium activities). Three types of quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and matrix spikes) were collected at up to 11 percent of the wells in the Monterey–Salinas Shallow Aquifer study unit, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data from the groundwater samples. With the exception of trace elements, blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, indicating that contamination from sample-collection procedures was not a significant source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Low concentrations of some trace elements were detected in blanks; therefore, the data were re-censored at higher reporting levels. Replicate samples generally were within the limits of acceptable analytical reproducibility. The median values of matrix-spike recoveries were within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent) for the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and N -nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), but were only approximately 64 percent for pesticides and pesticide degradates. The sample-collection protocols used in this study were designed to obtain representative samples of groundwater. The quality of groundwater can differ from the quality of drinking water because water chemistry can change as a result of contact with plumbing systems or the atmosphere; because of treatment, disinfection, or blending with water from other sources; or some combination of these. Water quality in domestic wells is not regulated in California, however, to provide context for the water-quality data presented in this report, results were compared to benchmarks established for drinking-water quality. The primary comparison benchmarks were maximum contaminant levels established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the State of California (MCL-US and MCL-CA, respectively). Non-regulatory benchmarks were used for constituents without maximum contaminant levels (MCLs), including Health Based Screening Levels (HBSLs) developed by the USGS and State of California secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL-CA) and notification levels. Most constituents detected in samples from the Monterey–Salinas Shallow Aquifer study unit had concentrations less than their respective benchmarks. Of the 148 organic constituents analyzed in the 100 grid-well samples, 38 were detected, and all concentrations were less than the benchmarks. Volatile organic compounds were detected in 26 of the grid wells, and pesticides and pesticide degradates were detected in 28 grid wells. The special-interest constituent NDMA was detected above the HBSL in three samples, one of which also had a perchlorate concentration greater than the MCL-CA. Of the inorganic constituents, 6 were detected at concentrations above their respective MCL benchmarks in grid-well samples: arsenic (5 grid wells above the MCL of 10 micrograms per liter, μg/L), selenium (3 grid wells, MCL of 50 μg/L), uranium (4 grid wells, MCL of 30 μg/L), nitrate (16 grid wells, MCL of 10 milligrams per liter, mg/L), adjusted gross alpha particle activity (10 grid wells, MCL of 15 picocuries per liter, pCi/L), and gross beta particle activity (1 grid well, MCL of 50 pCi/L). An additional 4 inorganic constituents were detected at concentrations above their respective HBSL benchmarks in grid-well samples: boron (1 grid well above the HBSL of 6,000 μg/L), manganese (8 grid wells, HBSL of 300 μg/L), molybdenum (6 grid wells, HBSL of 40 μg/L), and strontium (6 grid wells, HBSL of 4,000 μg/L). Of the inorganic constituents, 4 were detected at concentrations above their non-health based SMCL benchmarks in grid-well samples: iron (9 grid wells above the SMCL of 300 μg/L), chloride (7 grid wells, SMCL of 500 mg/L), sulfate (14 grid wells, SMCL of 500 mg/L), and total dissolved solids (27 grid wells, SMCL of 1,000 mg/L). Of the inorganic constituents analyzed in the 70 shallow-well tap sites, 10 were detected at concentrations above the benchmarks. Of the inorganic constituents, 3 were detected at concentrations above their respective MCL benchmarks in shallow-well tap sites: arsenic (2 shallow-well tap sites above the MCL of 10 μg/L), uranium (2 shallow-well tap sites, MCL of 30 μg/L), and nitrate (24 shallow-well tap sites, MCL of 10 mg/L). An additional 3 inorganic constituents were detected above their respective HBSL benchmarks in shallow-well tap sites: manganese (4 shallow-well tap sites above the HBSL of 300 μg/L), molybdenum (4 shallow-well tap sites, HBSL of 40 μg/L), and zinc (2 shallow-well tap sites, HBSL of 2,000 μg/L). Of the inorganic constituents, 4 were detected at concentrations above their non-health based SMCL benchmarks in shallow-well tap sites: iron (6 shallow-well tap sites above the SMCL of 300 μg/L), chloride (1 shallow-well tap site, SMCL of 500 mg/L), sulfate (9 shallow-well tap sites, SMCL of 500 mg/L), and total dissolved solids (15 shallow-well tap sites, SMCL of 1,000 mg/L).

California

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model; documentation of packages for simulating evapotranspiration with a segmented function (ETS1) and drains with return flow (DRT1)

Two new packages for the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water-flow model MODFLOW-2000 are documented. The new packages provide flexibility in simulating evapotranspiration and drain features not provided by the MODFLOW-2000 Evapotranspiration (EVT) and Drain (DRN) Packages. The report describes conceptualization of the packages, input instructions, listings and explanations of the source code, and example simulations. The new Evapotranspiration Segments (ETS1) Package allows simulation of evapotranspiration with a user-defined relation between evapotranspiration rate and hydraulic head. This capability provides a degree of flexibility not supported by the EVT Package, which has been available in MODFLOW since its initial release. In the ETS1 Package, the relation of evapotranspiration rate to hydraulic head is conceptualized as a segmented line between an evaporation surface, defined as the elevation where the evapotranspiration rate reaches a maximum, and an elevation located at an extinction depth below the evaporation surface, where the evapotranspiration rate reaches zero. The user supplies input to define as many intermediate segment endpoints as desired to define the relation of evapotranspiration rate to head between these two elevations. The EVT Package, in contrast, simulates evapotranspiration with a single linear function. The new Drain Return (DRT1) Package can be used to simulate the return flow of water discharged from a drain feature back into the ground-water system. The DRN Package, which has been available in MODFLOW since its initial release, does not have the capability to simulate return of flow. If the return-flow option of the DRT1 Package is selected, for each cell designated as a drain-return cell, the user has the option of specifying a proportion of the water simulated as leaving the ground-water system through the drain feature that is to be simulated as returning simultaneously to one other cell in the model.

Open-File Report

MODFLOW-2000 : the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model--documentation of the Advective-Transport Observation (ADV2) Package

Observations of the advective component of contaminant transport in steady-state flow fields can provide important information for the calibration of ground-water flow models. This report documents the Advective-Transport Observation (ADV2) Package, version 2, which allows advective-transport observations to be used in the three-dimensional ground-water flow parameter-estimation model MODFLOW-2000. The ADV2 Package is compatible with some of the features in the Layer-Property Flow and Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow Packages, but is not compatible with the Block-Centered Flow or Generalized Finite-Difference Packages. The particle-tracking routine used in the ADV2 Package duplicates the semi-analytical method of MODPATH, as shown in a sample problem. Particles can be tracked in a forward or backward direction, and effects such as retardation can be simulated through manipulation of the effective-porosity value used to calculate velocity. Particles can be discharged at cells that are considered to be weak sinks, in which the sink applied does not capture all the water flowing into the cell, using one of two criteria: (1) if there is any outflow to a boundary condition such as a well or surface-water feature, or (2) if the outflow exceeds a user specified fraction of the cell budget. Although effective porosity could be included as a parameter in the regression, this capability is not included in this package. The weighted sum-of-squares objective function, which is minimized in the Parameter-Estimation Process, was augmented to include the square of the weighted x-, y-, and z-components of the differences between the simulated and observed advective-front locations at defined times, thereby including the direction of travel as well as the overall travel distance in the calibration process. The sensitivities of the particle movement to the parameters needed to minimize the objective function are calculated for any particle location using the exact sensitivity-equation approach; the equations are derived by taking the partial derivatives of the semi-analytical particle-tracking equation with respect to the parameters. The ADV2 Package is verified by showing that parameter estimation using advective-transport observations produces the true parameter values in a small but complicated test case when exact observations are used. To demonstrate how the ADV2 Package can be used in practice, a field application is presented. In this application, the ADV2 Package is used first in the Sensitivity-Analysis mode of MODFLOW-2000 to calculate measures of the importance of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The ADV2 Package is then used in the Parameter-Estimation mode of MODFLOW-2000 to determine best-fit parameter values. It is concluded that, for this problem, advective-transport observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation of ground-water flow parameters, and the use of formal parameter-estimation methods and related techniques produced significant insight into the physical system.

Open-File Report

Preliminary soil-slip susceptibility maps, southwestern California

This group of maps shows relative susceptibility of hill slopes to the initiation sites of rainfall-triggered soil slip-debris flows in southwestern California. As such, the maps offer a partial answer to one part of the three parts necessary to predict the soil-slip/debris-flow process. A complete prediction of the process would include assessments of “where”, “when”, and “how big”. These maps empirically show part of the “where” of prediction (i.e., relative susceptibility to sites of initiation of the soil slips) but do not attempt to show the extent of run out of the resultant debris flows. Some information pertinent to “when” the process might begin is developed. “When” is determined mostly by dynamic factors such as rainfall rate and duration, for which local variations are not amenable to long-term prediction. “When” information is not provided on the maps but is described later in this narrative. The prediction of “how big” is addressed indirectly by restricting the maps to a single type of landslide process—soil slip-debris flows. The susceptibility maps were created through an iterative process from two kinds of information. First, locations of sites of past soil slips were obtained from inventory maps of past events. Aerial photographs, taken during six rainy seasons that produced abundant soil slips, were used as the basis for soil slip-debris flow inventory. Second, digital elevation models (DEM) of the areas that were inventoried were used to analyze the spatial characteristics of soil slip locations. These data were supplemented by observations made on the ground. Certain physical attributes of the locations of the soil-slip debris flows were found to be important and others were not. The most important attribute was the mapped bedrock formation at the site of initiation of the soil slip. However, because the soil slips occur in surficial materials overlying the bedrocks units, the bedrock formation can only serve as a surrogate for the susceptibility of the overlying surficial materials. The maps of susceptibility were created from those physical attributes learned to be important from the inventories. The multiple inventories allow a model to be created from one set of inventory data and evaluated with others. The resultant maps of relative susceptibility represent the best estimate generated from available inventory and DEM data. Slope and aspect values used in the susceptibility analysis were 10-meter DEM cells at a scale of 1:24,000. For most of the area 10-meter DEMs were available; for those quadrangles that have only 30-meter DEMs, the 30-meter DEMS were resampled to 10-meters to maintain resolution of 10-meter cells. Geologic unit values used in the susceptibility analysis were five-meter cells. For convenience, the soil slip susceptibility values are assembled on 1:100,000-scale bases. Any area of the 1:100,000-scale maps can be transferred to 1:24,000-scale base without any loss of accuracy. Figure 32 is an example of part of a 1:100,000-scale susceptibility map transferred back to a 1:24,000-scale quadrangle.

California

Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Modeling Output Online

Introduction The ability to predict the distribution of submersed aquatic vegetation in the Upper Mississippi River on the basis of physical or chemical variables is useful to resource managers. Wildlife managers have a keen interest in advanced estimates of food quantity such as American wildcelery (Vallisneria americana) population status to give out more informed advisories to hunters before the fall hunting season. Predictions for distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation beds can potentially increase hunter observance of voluntary avoidance zones where foraging birds are left alone to feed undisturbed. In years when submersed aquatic vegetation is predicted to be scarce in important wildlife habitats, managers can get the message out to hunters well before the hunting season (Jim Nissen, Upper Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge, La Crosse District Manager, La Crosse, Wisconsin, personal communication). We developed a statistical model to predict the probability of occurrence of submersed aquatic vegetation in Pool 8 of the Upper Mississippi River on the basis of a few hydrological, physical, and geomorphic variables. Our model takes into consideration flow velocity, wind fetch, bathymetry, growing-season daily water level, and light extinction coefficient in the river (fig. 1) and calculates the probability of submersed aquatic vegetation existence in Pool 8 in individual 5- x 5-m grid cells. The model was calibrated using the data collected in 1998 (516 sites), 1999 (595 sites), and 2000 (649 sites) using a stratified random sampling protocol (Yin and others, 2000b). To validate the model, we chose the data from the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) transect sampling in backwater areas (Rogers and Owens 1995; Yin and others, 2000a) and ran the model for each 5- x 5-m grid cell in every growing season from 1991 to 2001. We tallied all the cells and came up with an annual average percent frequency of submersed aquatic vegetation occurrence and compared the results with actual LTRMP survey data (fig. 2). Both a paired Student's test (P = 0.4620) and a Wilcoxon's two-sample test (P = 0.4738) did not contradict our null hypothesis that the model prediction and the sampling data are statistically the same. We have not found an effective statistical test to compare model-predicted spatial pattern with aerial photography geographic information, but we are satisfied with the model's outcome on the basis of visual inspection (fig. 3). A unique feature about this model is that a prediction can be made by the end of June each year; therefore, providing wildlife managers an assessment of current year vegetation growth condition 3 to 4 months ahead of the arrival of migrating waterfowl that feed on submersed aquatic vegetation. We are working with the LTRMP partnership to create a mechanism so that model predictions (fig. 4) can be updated annually and the results posted on the LTRMP Web site. Our model underestimated the prevalence of vegetation from 2001 to 2004. We speculate that the summer water level reduction conducted in 2001 and 2002 triggered vegetation responses that are outside the model's domain. Future enhancement of the model will incorporate the summer water level drawdown effects as well as the effects of growth conditions in previous years.

Open-File Report

Geologic framework for the national assessment of carbon dioxide storage resources: Williston Basin, Central Montana Basins, and Montana Thrust Belt study areas

The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act directs the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The methodology used by the USGS for the national CO 2 assessment follows that of previous USGS work. This methodology is non-economic and is intended to be used at regional to sub-basinal scales. The Williston Basin of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, along with the Central Montana Basins and Montana Thrust Belt study areas are adjacent and share similar geologic units. In general, the Williston Basin study area is a wide sedimentary basin, whereas the Central Montana Basins study area contains sedimentary rocks along topographic highs and flat plains, and the Montana Thrust Belt study area is more structurally complex. This report identifies and contains geologic descriptions of nine storage assessment units (SAUs) in Cambrian to Upper Cretaceous sedimentary rocks within the Williston Basin study area. The Central Montana Basins and Montana Thrust Belt study areas were also investigated for this report. Nevertheless, no SAUs in these study areas were assessed because they contained potential sources of underground drinking water; although sufficient geologic data were available, and suitable storage formations meeting our size, depth, reservoir quality, and regional seal guidelines were found. Ultimately, the report focuses on the characteristics, specified in the methodology, that influence the potential CO 2 storage resource in the SAUs. Specific descriptions of the SAU boundaries as well as their sealing and reservoir units are included. Properties for each SAU, such as depth to top, gross thickness, porosity, permeability, groundwater quality, and structural reservoir traps, are usually provided to illustrate geologic factors critical to the assessment. The geologic information herein was employed, as specified in the USGS methodology, to calculate a probabilistic distribution of potential storage resources in each SAU with these assessment outputs contained in a companion results report. Figures in this report show the study area boundaries along with the SAU extent and cell maps of well penetrations through sealing units into the top of the storage formations. The USGS does not necessarily know the location of all wells and cannot guarantee the full extent of drilling through specific formations in any given cell shown on the cell maps.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Simulation of the water-table altitude in the Biscayne Aquifer, southern Dade County, Florida, water years 1945-89

A digital model of the flow system in the highly permeable surficial Biscayne aquifer of southern Dade County, Florida, was constructed for the purposes of better understanding processes that influence the flow system and of supporting the construction of a subregional model of the transport of brackish water from a flowing artesian well. Problems that needed resolution in this endeavor included the development of methods to represent the influence of flowing surface water in seasonally inundated wetlands and the influence of a network of controlled canals developed in stages during the simulation time period (water years 1945-89). An additional problem was the general lack of natural aquifer boundaries near the boundaries of the study area. The model construction was based on a conceptual description of the Biscayne aquifer developed from the results of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations. Modifications were made to an existing three-dimensional finite-difference simulator of ground-water flow to enable an upper layer of the grid to represent seasonally occurring overland sheetflow in a series of transient simulations of water levels from 1945 to 1989. A rewetting procedure was developed for the simulator that permitted resaturation of cells in this layer when the wet season recurred. An "equivalent hydraulic conductivity" coefficient was assigned to the overland flow layer that was analogous, subject to various approximations, to the use of the Manning equation. The surficial semiconfining peat and marl layers, levees, canals, and control structures were also represented as part of the model grid with the appropriate choices of hydraulic coefficient values. For most of the Biscayne aquifer grid cells, the value assigned to hydraulic conductivity for model calibration was 30,000 feet per day and the value assigned to porosity was 20 percent. Boundary conditions were specified near data sites having long-term records of surface-water stages or water-table altitudes, and modifications to the simulator permitted the specification of time-varying pressures at boundary grid cells. Rainfall data from a station in Homestead generally were used as an areally uniform rainfall specification throughout the modeled region. Maximum evapotranspiration rates ranged seasonally from a minimum of 0.08 inch per day in January to a maximum of 0.21 inch per day between June and October. Shallow-root and deep-root zone depths for the evapotranspiration calculation were 3 and 20 feet in the coastal ridge and were 0.10 and 5 feet in the glades regions where peat and marl covers occurred. Results of sensitivity analyses indicated that the simulations of stages and water levels were relatively unresponsive to 50 percent changes in aquifer hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and the equivalent hydraulic conductivity of overland flow. However, 20 percent changes in rainfall and maximum evapotranspiration rates produced significantly different water levels, as did interchange of coastal ridge and glades deep-root zone (extinction) depths. Water levels were simulated very well at most measurement sites. Sensitivity analyses illustrated the significant influence of the uncontrolled agricultural drainage canals on pre-1968 regional water levels and the further influence of Black Creek Canal in draining a region of high water after 1961. Other analyses indicated that the flood-control system of 1968-82 lowered peak water levels in the affected region by as much as 1.5 feet in the wet summers of 1968, 1969, and 1981, and that Levee 67 Extended channeled flows from the S-12 spillway structures and raised overland flow stages in Shark River Slough. Hypothetical scenarios of well-field pumping in the vicinity of Levee 31N indicated that the pumping induced a significant amount of recharge from the adjacent borrow canal, the degree of which depended on the distance between the canal and the well field. The computed ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall recharge ranged from 88 to 94 percent during water years 1945-82. The ratio increased to about 97.9 percent during water years 1983-89, possibly because of changing water-management practices and deficient rainfall.

Florida

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Ventura, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Ventura map area lies within the Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the Ventura Basin, in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges, and the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. The city of Ventura is the major cultural center in the map area. The Ventura River cuts through Ventura, draining the Santa Ynez Mountains and the coastal hills north of Ventura. Northwest of Ventura, the coastal zone is a narrow strip containing highway and railway transportation corridors and a few small residential clusters. Rincon Island, an island constructed for oil and gas production, lies offshore of Punta Gorda. Southeast of Ventura, the coastal zone consists of the mouth and broad, alluvial plains of the Santa Clara River, and the region is characterized by urban and agricultural development. Ventura Harbor sits just north of the mouth of the Santa Clara River, in an area formerly occupied by lagoons and marshes. The Offshore of Ventura map area lies in the eastern part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, whose littoral drift is to the east-southeast. Drift rates of about 700,000 to 1,150,000 tons/yr have been reported at Ventura Harbor. At the east end of the littoral cell, eastward-moving sediment is trapped by Hueneme and Mugu Canyons and then transported into the deep-water Santa Monica Basin. The largest sediment source to this littoral cell (and the largest in all of southern California) is the Santa Clara River, which has an estimated annual sediment flux of 3.1 million tons. In addition, the Ventura River yields about 270,000 tons of sediment annually. Despite the large local sediment supply, coastal erosion problems are ongoing in the map area. Riprap, revetments, and seawalls variably protect the coast within and north of Ventura. The offshore part of the map area mainly consists of relatively flat, shallow continental shelf, which dips so gently (about 0.2° to 0.4°) that water depths at the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters are just 20 to 40 m. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and west by Point Conception and the Channel Islands; long-period swells affecting the area are mainly from the south-southwest. Fair-weather wave base is typically shallower than 20-m water depth, but winter storms are capable of resuspending fine-grained sediments in 30 m of water, and so shelf sediments in the map area probably are remobilized on an annual basis. The shelf is underlain by tens of meters of interbedded upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated up and down in the last several hundred thousand years. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft sediment and isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Ventura map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, dominated by a flat seafloor and substrates formed from deposition of fluvial and marine sediment during sea-level rise. This flat, fairly homogeneous seafloor, composed primarily of unconsolidated sand and mud and local deposits of gravel, cobbles, and pebbles, provides promising habitat for groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms. The only significant interruptions to this homogeneous habitat type are exposures of hard, irregular sedimentary bedrock and coarse-grained sediment where potential habitats for rockfish and related species exist.

California

California State Waters Map Series: Offshore of Carpinteria, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Carpinteria map area lies within the central Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. The small city of Carpinteria is the most significant onshore cultural center in the map area; the smaller town of Summerland lies west of Carpinteria. These communities rest on a relatively flat coastal piedmont that is surrounded on the north, east, and west by hilly relief on the flanks of the Santa Ynez Mountains. El Estero, a salt marsh on the coast west of Carpinteria, is an ecologically important coastal estuary. Southeast of Carpinteria, the coastal zone is narrow strip containing highway and railway transportation corridors and a few small residential clusters. Rincon Point is a well-known world-class surf break, and Rincon Island, constructed for oil and gas production, lies offshore of Punta Gorda. The steep bluffs backing the coastal strip are geologically unstable, and coastal erosion problems are ongoing in the map area; most notably, landslides in 2005 struck the small coastal community of La Conchita, engulfing houses and killing ten people. The Offshore of Carpinteria map area lies in the central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, whose littoral drift is to the east-southeast. Drift rates have been estimated to be about 400,000 tons/yr at Santa Barbara Harbor (about 15 km west of Carpinteria). At the east end of the littoral cell, eastward-moving sediment is trapped by Hueneme and Mugu Canyons and then transported to the deep-water Santa Monica Basin. Sediment supply to the western and central part of the littoral cell is largely from relatively small transverse coastal watersheds, which have an estimated cumulative annual sediment flux of 640,000 tons/yr. The much larger Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, the mouths of which are about 25 to 30 km southeast of Carpinteria, yield an estimated 3.4 million tons of sediment annually, the coarser sediment load generally moving southeast, down the coast, and the finer sediment load moving both upcoast and offshore. The offshore part of the map area consists of a relatively flat and shallow continental shelf, which dips so gently (about 0.4° to 0.5°) that water depths at the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters are 40 to 45 m. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from the south and southwest by offshore islands and banks. Fair-weather wave base is typically shallower than 20-m water depth, but winter storms are capable of resuspending fine-grained sediments in 30 m of water, and so shelf sediments in the map area probably are remobilized on an annual basis. The shelf is underlain by variable amounts of upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments that thicken to the south. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft sediment and isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Carpinteria map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, dominated by a flat seafloor and substrates formed from deposition of fluvial and marine sediment during sea-level rise. This fairly homogeneous seafloor provides promising habitat for groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms. The only significant interruptions to this homogeneous habitat type are the exposures of hard, irregular, and hummocky sedimentary bedrock and coarse-grained sediment where potential habitats for rockfish and related species exist.

California

California State Waters Map Series: Offshore of Santa Barbara, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Santa Barbara map area lies within the central Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and geodetic studies indicate that the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. Uplift rates (as much as 2.2 mm/yr) that are based on studies of onland marine terraces provide further evidence of significant shortening. The city of Santa Barbara, the main coastal population center in the map area, is part of a contiguous urban area that extends from Carpinteria to Goleta. This urban area was developed on the coalescing alluvial surfaces, uplifted marine terraces, and low hills that lie south of the east-west-trending Santa Ynez Mountains. Several beaches line the actively utilized Santa Barbara coastal zone, including Arroyo Burro Beach Park, Leadbetter Beach, East Beach, and “Butterfly Beach.” There are ongoing coastal erosion problems associated with both development and natural processes; between 1933–1934 and 1998, cliff erosion in the map area occurred at rates of about 0.1 to 1 m/yr, the largest amount (63 m) occurring at Arroyo Burro in the western part of the map area. In addition, development of the Santa Barbara Harbor, which began in 1928, lead to shoaling west of the harbor as the initial breakwater trapped sand, as well as to coastal erosion east of the harbor. Since 1959, annual harbor dredging has mitigated at least some of the downcoast erosion problems. The Offshore of Santa Barbara map area lies in the central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by littoral drift to the east-southeast. Drift rates have been estimated to be about 400,000 tons/yr at Santa Barbara Harbor. Sediment supply to the western and central parts of the littoral cell, including the map area, is largely from relatively small transverse coastal watersheds. Within the map area, these coastal watersheds include (from east to west) San Ysidro Creek, Oak Creek, Montecito Creek, Sycamore Creek, Mission Creek, Arroyo Burro, and Atascadero Creek. The Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, the mouths of which are about 40 to 50 km southeast of Santa Barbara, are much larger sediment sources. Still farther east, eastward-moving sediment in the littoral cell is trapped by Hueneme and Mugu Canyons and then transported to the deep-water Santa Monica Basin. The offshore part of the map area consists of a relatively flat and shallow continental shelf, which dips gently seaward (about 0.4° to 0.8°) so that water depths at the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters are about 45 m in the east and about 75 m in the west. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from the south and southwest by offshore islands and banks. The shelf is underlain by variable amounts of upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft sediment and isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Santa Barbara map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats, which lie within the Shelf (continental shelf) megahabitat, range from soft, unconsolidated sediment to hard sedimentary bedrock. This heterogeneous seafloor provides promising habitat for rockfish, groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms.

California

California State Waters Map Series: Offshore of Coal Oil Point, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area lies within the central Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. This geologically complex region forms a major biogeographic transition zone, separating the cold-temperate Oregonian province north of Point Conception from the warm-temperate California province to the south. The map area is in the southern part of the Western Transverse Ranges geologic province, which is north of the California Continental Borderland. Significant clockwise rotation—at least 90°—since the early Miocene has been proposed for the Western Transverse Ranges province, and geodetic studies indicate that the region is presently undergoing north-south shortening. Uplift rates (as much as 2.0 mm/yr) that are based on studies of onland marine terraces provide further evidence of significant shortening. The cities of Goleta and Isla Vista, the main population centers in the map area, are in the western part of a contiguous urban area that extends eastward through Santa Barbara to Carpinteria. This urban area is on the south flank of the east-west-trending Santa Ynez Mountains, on coalescing alluvial fans and uplifted marine terraces underlain by folded and faulted Miocene bedrock. In the map area, the relatively low-relief, elevated coastal bajada narrows from about 2.5 km wide in the east to less than 500 m wide in the west. Several beaches line the actively utilized coastal zone, including Isla Vista County Park beach, Coal Oil Point Reserve, and Goleta Beach County Park. The beaches are subject to erosion each winter during storm-wave attack, and then they undergo gradual recovery or accretion during the more gentle wave climate of the late spring, summer, and fall months. The Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area lies in the central part of the Santa Barbara littoral cell, which is characterized by littoral drift to the east-southeast. Longshore drift rates have been reported to range from about 160,000 to 800,000 tons/yr, averaging 400,000 tons/yr. Sediment supply to the western and central parts of the littoral cell, including the map area, is largely from relatively small transverse coastal watersheds. Within the map area, these coastal watersheds include (from east to west) Las Llagas Canyon, Gato Canyon, Las Varas Canyon, Dos Pueblos Canyon, Eagle Canyon, Tecolote Canyon, Winchester Canyon, Ellwood Canyon, Glen Annie Canyon, and San Jose Creek. The Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Rivers, the mouths of which are about 100 to 140 km northwest of the map area, are not significant sediment sources because Point Conception and Point Arguello provide obstacles to downcoast sediment transport and also because much of their sediment load is trapped in dams. The Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, the mouths of which are about 45 to 55 km southeast of the map area, are much larger sediment sources. Still farther east, eastward-moving sediment in the littoral cell is trapped by Hueneme and Mugu Canyons and then transported to the deep-water Santa Monica Basin. The offshore part of the map area consists of a relatively flat and shallow continental shelf, which dips gently seaward (about 0.8° to 1.0°) so that water depths at the shelf break, roughly coincident with the California’s State Waters limit, are about 90 m. This part of the Santa Barbara Channel is relatively well protected from large Pacific swells from the north and northwest by Point Conception and from the south and southwest by offshore islands and banks. The shelf is underlain by variable amounts of upper Quaternary marine and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The large (130 km2) Goleta landslide complex lies along the shelf break in the southern part of the map area. This compound slump complex may have been initiated more than 200,000 years ago, but it also includes three recent failures that may have been generated between 8,000 to 10,000 years ago. A local, 5- to 10-m-high tsunami may have been generated from these failure events. The map area has had a long history of hydrocarbon development, which began in 1928 with discovery of the Ellwood oil field. Subsequent discoveries in the offshore include South Ellwood offshore oil field, Coal Oil Point oil field, and Naples oil and gas field. Development of South Ellwood offshore field began in 1966 from platform “Holly,” the last platform to be installed in California’s State Waters. The area also is known for “the world’s most spectacular marine hydrocarbon seeps,” and large tar seeps are exposed on beaches east of the mouth of Goleta Slough. Offshore seeps adjacent to South Ellwood oil field release about 40 tons per day of methane and about 19 tons per day of ethane, propane, butane, and higher hydrocarbons. Seafloor habitats in the broad Santa Barbara Channel region consist of significant amounts of soft sediment and isolated areas of rocky habitat that support kelp-forest communities nearshore and rocky-reef communities in deep water. The potential marine benthic habitat types mapped in the Offshore of Coal Oil Point map area are directly related to its Quaternary geologic history, geomorphology, and active sedimentary processes. These potential habitats, which lie primarily within the Shelf (continental shelf) but also partly within the Flank (basin flank or continental slope) megahabitats, range from soft, unconsolidated sediment to hard sedimentary bedrock. This heterogeneous seafloor provides promising habitat for rockfish, groundfish, crabs, shrimp, and other marine benthic organisms.

California

Effects of Land-Use Changes and Ground-Water Withdrawals on Stream Base Flow, Pocono Creek Watershed, Monroe County, Pennsylvania

The Pocono Creek watershed drains 46.5 square miles in eastern Monroe County, Pa. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of Monroe County is expected to increase by 70 percent, which will result in substantial changes in land-use patterns. An evaluation of the effect of reduced recharge from land-use changes and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Delaware River Basin Commission as part of the USEPA?s Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management Initiative. Two models were used. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed by the USEPA provided areal recharge values for 2000 land use and projected full buildout land use. The USGS MODFLOW-2000 ground-water-flow model was used to estimate the effect of reduced recharge from changes in land use and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow. This report describes the ground-water-flow-model simulations. The Pocono Creek watershed is underlain by sedimentary rock of Devonian age, which is overlain by a veneer of glacial deposits. All water-supply wells are cased into and derive water from the bedrock. In the ground-water-flow model, the surficial geologic units were grouped into six categories: (1) moraine deposits, (2) stratified drift, (3) lake deposits, (4) outwash, (5) swamp deposits, and (6) undifferentiated deposits. The unconsolidated surficial deposits are not used as a source of water. The ground-water and surface-water systems are well connected in the Pocono Creek watershed. Base flow measured on October 13, 2004, at 27 sites for model calibration showed that streams gained water between all sites measured except in the lower reach of Pocono Creek. The ground-water-flow model included the entire Pocono Creek watershed. Horizontally, the modeled area was divided into a 53 by 155 cell grid with 6,060 active cells. Vertically, the modeled area was discretized into four layers. Layers 1 and 2 represented the unconsolidated surficial deposits where they are present and bedrock where the surficial deposits are absent. Layer 3 represented shallow bedrock and was 200 ft (feet) thick. Layer 4 represented deep bedrock and was 300 ft thick. A total of 873 cells representing streams were assigned to layer 1. Recharge rates for model calibration were provided by the USEPA SWAT model for 2000 land-use conditions. Recharge rates for 2000 for the 29 subwatersheds in the SWAT model ranged from 6.11 to 22.66 inches per year. Because the ground-water-flow model was calibrated to base-flow data collected on October 13, 2004, the 2000 recharge rates were multiplied by 1.18 so the volume of recharge was equal to the volume of streamflow measured at the mouth of Pocono Creek. During model calibration, adjustments were made to aquifer hydraulic conductivity and streambed conductance. Simulated base flows and hydraulic heads were compared to measured base flows and hydraulic heads using the root mean squared error (RMSE) between measured and simulated values. The RMSE of the calibrated model for base flow was 4.7 cubic feet per second for 27 locations, and the RMSE for hydraulic heads for 15 locations was 35 ft. The USEPA SWAT model was used to provide areal recharge values for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions. The change in recharge ranged from an increase of 37.8 percent to a decrease of 60.8 percent. The ground-water-flow model was used to simulate base flow for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions using steady-state simulations. The decrease in simulated base flow ranged from 3.8 to 63 percent at the streamflow-measurement sites. Simulated base flow at streamflow-gaging station Pocono Creek above Wigwam Run near Stroudsburg, Pa. (01441495), decreased 25 percent. This is in general agreement with the SWAT model, which estimated a 30.6-percent loss in base flow at the streamflow-gaging station.

Scientific Investigations Report

Prevalence of tumors in brown bullhead from three lakes in southeastern Massachusetts, 2002

The Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR) has been a military base on western Cape Cod since the early 1900s. Contaminated surface water and ground water from the MMR have discharged into several kettle lakes on or near the base. To discover whether the prevalences of tumors and other lesions in brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) in these lakes, particularly Ashumet Pond, were elevated above normal, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assisted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (MADFW), conducted a study in 2002 of brown bullhead in Ashumet Pond and in two reference lakes, Santuit Pond (on Cape Cod) and Great Herring Pond (on the mainland of Massachusetts). Brown bullhead from Great Herring Pond had few external raised lesions (2.8 percent), a low prevalence of liver neoplasms (5 percent), and little genetic damage to their red blood cell nuclei. Brown bullhead from Ashumet Pond had a high prevalence of raised lesions (62.1 percent), which included histopathologically verified papillomas and squamous carcinoma; an elevated incidence of liver neoplasms (16.7 percent); and an elevated level of genetic damage to their red blood cell nuclei. Because red blood cells in fish have a lifespan of about 100 days, these results indicate an ongoing exposure to genotoxins in Ashumet Pond. Brown bullhead from Santuit Pond also had elevated prevalences of raised lesions (48.3 percent) and liver neoplasms (15 percent), although the prevalences of large and multiple lesions were significantly lower than those in fish from Ashumet Pond. These differences may indicate differing causes of pathology in the two lakes. The high prevalence of melanistic lesions on brown bullhead from Ashumet Pond, combined with the tumor pathology and genetic damage, implicates chemical carcinogens as one of the causal factors in that lake.

Massachusetts

Numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area, South Dakota

The city of Rapid City and other water users in the Rapid City area obtain water supplies from the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers, which are contained in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units. A numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area was developed to synthesize estimates of water-budget components and hydraulic properties, and to provide a tool to analyze the effect of additional stress on water-level altitudes within the aquifers and on discharge to springs. This report, prepared in cooperation with the city of Rapid City, documents a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units for the 1,000-square-mile study area that includes Rapid City and the surrounding area. Water-table conditions generally exist in outcrop areas of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units, which form generally concentric rings that surround the Precambrian core of the uplifted Black Hills. Confined conditions exist east of the water-table areas in the study area. The Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit is 375 to 800 feet (ft) thick in the study area with the more permeable upper part containing predominantly sandstone and the less permeable lower part containing more shale and limestone than the upper part. Shale units in the lower part generally impede flow between the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit and the underlying Madison hydrogeologic unit; however, fracturing and weathering may result in hydraulic connections in some areas. The Madison hydrogeologic unit is composed of limestone and dolomite that is about 250 to 610 ft thick in the study area, and the upper part contains substantial secondary permeability from solution openings and fractures. Recharge to the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units is from streamflow loss where streams cross the outcrop and from infiltration of precipitation on the outcrops (areal recharge). MODFLOW-2000, a finite-difference groundwater-flow model, was used to simulate flow in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units with five layers. Layer 1 represented the fractured sandstone layers in the upper 250 ft of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit, and layer 2 represented the lower part of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit. Layer 3 represented the upper 150 ft of the Madison hydrogeologic unit, and layer 4 represented the less permeable lower part. Layer 5 represented an approximation of the underlying Deadwood aquifer to simulate upward flow to the Madison hydrogeologic unit. The finite-difference grid, oriented 23 degrees counterclockwise, included 221 rows and 169 columns with a square cell size of 492.1 ft in the detailed study area that surrounded Rapid City. The northern and southern boundaries for layers 1-4 were represented as no-flow boundaries, and the boundary on the east was represented with head-dependent flow cells. Streamflow recharge was represented with specified-flow cells, and areal recharge to layers 1-4 was represented with a specified-flux boundary. Calibration of the model was accomplished by two simulations: (1) steady-state simulation of average conditions for water years 1988-97 and (2) transient simulations of water years 1988-97 divided into twenty 6-month stress periods. Flow-system components represented in the model include recharge, discharge, and hydraulic properties. The steady-state streamflow recharge rate was 42.2 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and transient streamflow recharge rates ranged from 14.1 to 102.2 ft3/s. The steady-state areal recharge rate was 20.9 ft3/s, and transient areal recharge rates ranged from 1.1 to 98.4 ft3/s. The upward flow rate from the Deadwood aquifer to the Madison hydrogeologic unit was 6.3 ft3/s. Discharge included springflow, water use, flow to overlying units, and regional outflow. The estimated steady-state springflow of 32.8 ft3/s from seven springs was similar to the simulated springflow of 31.6 ft3/s, which included 20.5 ft3

South Dakota

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow for the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington

A regional, three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Yakima River basin aquifer system to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies that consider the interrelation between groundwater availability and surface-water resources. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference model MODFLOW. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 600 rows and 600 columns. Forty-eight hydrogeologic units in the model are included in 24 model layers. The Yakima River, all major tributaries, and major agricultural drains are included in the model as either drain cells or streamflow-routing cells. Recharge was estimated from previous work using physical process models. Groundwater pumpage specified in the model is derived from monthly pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study. The pumpage values include estimates for wells with standby/reserve rights that are used in drought years. The model was calibrated to the transient conditions for October 1959 to September 2001. Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model simulates the shape and slope of the water table that generally is consistent with mapped water levels. At well observation points, the average difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -49 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4 percent. Simulated river streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at seven sites. Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the sites ranged from 1 to 9 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 42-year estimate of a monthly water budget for the aquifer system. Five applications (scenarios) of the model were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between pumpage and surface-water resources and groundwater levels. For the first three scenarios, the calibrated transient model was used to simulate conditions without: (1) pumpage from all hydrogeologic units, (2) pumpage from basalt hydrogeologic units, and (3) exempt-well pumpage. The simulation results indicated potential streamflow capture by the existing pumpage from 1960 through 2001. The quantity of streamflow capture generally was inversely related to the total quantity of pumpage eliminated in the model scenarios. For the fourth scenario, the model simulated 1994 through 2001 under existing conditions with additional pumpage estimated for pending groundwater applications. The differences between the calibrated model streamflow and this scenario indicated additional decreases in streamflow of 91 cubic feet per second in the model domain. Existing conditions representing 1994 through 2001 were projected through 2025 for the fifth scenario and indicated additional streamflow decreases of 38 cubic feet per second and groundwater-level declines.

Scientific Investigations Report