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AviList: A unified global bird checklist

Universally recognized scientific names for organisms are necessary for accurate and efficient communication. Incongruence in taxonomic treatments results in situations where one name is used for different entities or one entity is known by different names, with negative consequences for conservation, science, trade, legislation, law enforcement, and education, leading to discord among stakeholders and confusion among users. Within the ornithological community taxonomic incongruence among four widely adopted global bird checklists has led to calls for the development of a single unified global avian taxonomy or checklist. Here we introduce AviList, a comprehensive, collaborative and evolving effort towards developing a unified global avian taxonomy, spearheaded by representatives of most current global checklists and many major regional authorities, and supported by the International Ornithologists’ Union (IOU), BirdLife International and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. AviList version 2025, the first version, was officially launched on 11 June 2025 and is available online as a comprehensive, searchable public-access database. It recognizes 11,131 bird species in 2376 genera, 252 families and 46 orders. This global effort has resolved over 1000 species-level taxonomic incongruences among existing checklists. With AviList’s launch, the IOC World Bird List and the Clements Checklist of Birds of the World have ceased any independent taxonomic updates, while BirdLife International is in the process of total alignment, leading to a harmonization in the classification underpinning a number of major bird projects, including eBird, Macaulay Library, Merlin Bird ID and the IUCN Red List. Adoption of AviList will improve inter-operability across global biodiversity, molecular, ecological and spatial databases (e.g. GBIF). Strong governance of AviList will ensure it is a “living” document that is regularly updated by a global community of bird taxonomists as new scientific advances are made, with positive impacts for conservation, academia and human society. It is hoped that AviList will support and encourage taxonomic science by identifying areas where further research is most needed, and that it will provide a blueprint for taxonomic authorities in other organismic groups endeavoring to achieve taxonomic harmonization.

Biodiversity and Conservation

Roosting habitat use by sandhill cranes and waterfowl on the North and South Platte Rivers in Nebraska

Migration ecology and habitat use of spring migrating birds using the Central Platte River is a well-explored topic, yet less is known about use of the North and South Platte rivers (NSPR) in western Nebraska. The efficiency and effectiveness of conservation efforts in the NSPR could be greatly improved with access to information about where and when birds roost and landscape prioritization tools. We used aerial surveys to determine population distribution and migration phenology of sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis , Canada geese Branta canadensis , and ducks using the NSPR for roosting during the mid-February to mid-April spring migration. We used these data and geospatial information to identify important river reaches for these species and habitat covariates that discriminate between those used at lower and higher densities. We found that sandhill cranes and waterfowl generally roosted in different segments of the NSPR and, subsequently, different factors were associated with high densities. Sandhill crane density was positively correlated with distance from obstructions greater than 1 m high and negatively correlated with area of unvegetated sandbar within 1 km. Density of Canada geese and ducks was high in segments positively associated with wetland and sand pit habitats. Human disturbance variables such as roads and bridges in this rural region had little effect on identification of roosting areas used by high densities of all groups. On the basis of our results, habitat conservation efforts that specifically target sandhill cranes will not have similar positive effects on waterfowl use and distribution in the NSPR. Our identification of the most important river segments should allow managers to better target land acquisition or management resources to areas that will have the greatest effect on either waterfowl or sandhill cranes during spring migration.

Nebraska

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Landscape capability predicts upland game bird abundance and occurrence

Landscape capability (LC) models are a spatial tool with potential applications in conservation planning. We used survey data to validate LC models as predictors of occurrence and abundance at broad and fine scales for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) and ruffed grouse ( Bonasa umbellus ). Landscape capability models were reliable predictors of occurrence but were less indicative of relative abundance at route (11.5–14.6 km) and point scales (0.5–1 km). As predictors of occurrence, LC models had high sensitivity (0.71–0.93) and were accurate (0.71–0.88) and precise (0.88 and 0.92 for woodcock and grouse, respectively). Models did not predict point-scale abundance independent of the ability to predict occurrence of either species. The LC models are useful predictors of patterns of occurrences in the northeastern United States, but they have limited utility as predictors of fine-scale or route-specific abundances.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Breeding season space use by lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus Pallidicinctus) varies among ecoregions and breeding stages

Large-scale declines of grassland ecosystems in the conterminous United States since European settlement have led to substantial loss and fragmentation of lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) habitat and decreased their occupied range and population numbers by ∼85%. Breeding season space use is an important component of lesser prairie-chicken conservation, because it could affect both local carrying capacity and population dynamics. Previous estimates of breeding season space use are largely limited to one of the four currently occupied ecoregions, but potential extrinsic drivers of breeding space use, such as landscape fragmentation, vegetation structure and composition, and density of anthropogenic structures, can show large spatial variation. Moreover, habitat needs vary greatly among the lekking/prelaying, nesting, brood-rearing, and postbreeding stages of the breeding season, but space use by female lesser prairie-chickens during these stages remain relatively unclear. We tested whether home range area and daily displacement (the net distance between the first and last location of each day) of female lesser prairie-chickens varied among ecoregions and breeding stages at four study sites in Kansas and Colorado, U.S.A., representing three of the four currently occupied ecoregions. We equipped females with very-high-frequency (VHF) or Global Positioning System (GPS) transmitters, and estimated home range area with kernel density estimators or biased random bridge models, respectively. Across all ecoregions, breeding season home range area averaged 190.4 ha (±19.1 ha se ) for birds with VHF and 283.6 ha (±23.1 ha) for birds with GPS transmitters, whereas daily displacement averaged 374.8 m (±14.3 m). Average home range area and daily displacement of bird with GPS transmitters were greater in the Short-Grass Prairie/ Conservation Reserve Program Mosaic and Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregions compared to sites in the Mixed-Grass Prairie Ecoregion. Home range area and daily displacement were greatest during lekking/prelaying and smallest during the brood-rearing stage, when female movements were restricted by mobility of chicks. Ecoregion- and breeding stage-specific estimates of space use by lesser prairie-chickens will help managers determine the spatial configuration of breeding stage-specific habitat on the landscape. Furthermore, ecoregion- and breeding stage-specific estimates are crucial when estimating the amount of breeding habitat needed for lesser prairie-chicken populations to persist.

Colorado

Palila Restoration: Lessons from Long-term Research

BACKGROUND The palila (Loxioides bailleui) is a member of the Hawaiian honeycreeper family of birds (Drepanidinae), which is renowned for the profusion of species - many with bizarre bills and specialized feeding habits - that radiated from a single ancestral type. Most of the 57 or so honeycreeper species are extinct, and the palila is endangered because of its high degree of dependence on the mamane tree (Sophora chrysophylla) (Figure 1) and its restricted distribution on the upper slopes of Mauna Kea (Figure 2). Three decades of research have revealed many important facts about palila, providing the foundation and impetus for conservation programs in the wild and captivity. Additionally, an ambitious public conservation campaign arose due to the land-use conflicts on Mauna Kea. Here we summarize progress in palila conservation biology and outline steps that might overcome the remaining major challenges to its recovery. We also highlight lessons learned from palila research that may help the recovery of other Hawaiian forest birds. Palila and two closely-related species on the tiny islands of Nihoa and Laysan are the last of the seed-eating honeycreeper species in the Hawaiian Islands. About a quarter of the honeycreeper species known from living and fossil specimens had finch-like bills suited mainly for eating seeds and fruits. Because of their dietary specialization, palila are vulnerable to changes in forest size and quality, as was also likely the case for extinct species of seed specialists. Palila and many other forest bird species were once distributed in dry, lowland forests. Fossil records indicate that palila also occurred in the lowlands of O`ahu and Kaua`i until human settlement of those islands. However, because lowland habitats have been highly modified by humans and because mamane occurs today primarily at high elevation, palila are the only native bird species found exclusively in dry, subalpine habitat (2000?2850 m). Similar to other feeding specialists, palila lay few eggs, raise few young each year, and take a relatively long time to complete the nesting cycle. Low rates of reproduction result in low rates of population growth and low potential for recovery from disturbances. Long-term studies of palila offer important insights into the conservation biology of all Hawaiian forest bird species, particularly feeding specialists like the palila. Palila face many challenges common to both generalist and specialist Hawaiian honeycreeper species. Habitat loss and degradation, as well as introduced avian diseases, have reduced their numbers and limited their distribution to a very small portion of their historic range. Introduced mammals prey on palila, while alien insects reduce caterpillars that are particularly important in the diet of nestlings. Securing legal protection and funding for palila restoration has been challenging. Understanding how the palila has avoided extinction can help managers plan its recovery, and better design recovery plans for species with different feeding strategies in other habitats.

Fact Sheet

Aquatic bird disease and mortality as an indicator of changing ecosystem health

We analyzed data from pathologic investigations in the United States, collected by the USGS National Wildlife Health Center between 1971 and 2005, into aquatic bird mortality events. A total of 3619 mortality events was documented for aquatic birds, involving at least 633 708 dead birds from 158 species belonging to 23 families. Environmental causes accounted for the largest proportion of mortality events (1737 or 48%) and dead birds (437 258 or 69%); these numbers increased between 1971 and 2000, with biotoxin mortalities due to botulinum intoxication (Types C and E) being the leading cause of death. Infectious diseases were the second leading cause of mortality events (20%) and dead birds (20%), with both viral diseases, including duck plague ( Herpes virus ), paramyxovirus of cormorants ( Paramyxovirus PMV1) and West Nile virus ( Flavivirus ), and bacterial diseases, including avian cholera ( Pasteurella multocida ), chlamydiosis ( Chalmydia psittici ), and salmonellosis ( Salmonella sp.), contributing. Pelagic, coastal marine birds and species that use marine and freshwater habitats were impacted most frequently by environmental causes of death, with biotoxin exposure, primarily botulinum toxin, resulting in mortalities of both coastal and freshwater species. Pelagic birds were impacted most severely by emaciation and starvation, which may reflect increased anthropogenic pressure on the marine habitat from over-fishing, pollution, and other factors. Our study provides important information on broad trends in aquatic bird mortality and highlights how long-term wildlife disease studies can be used to identify anthropogenic threats to wildlife conservation and ecosystem health. In particular, mortality data for the past 30 yr suggest that biotoxins, viral, and bacterial diseases could have impacted >5 million aquatic birds.

Marine Ecology Progress Series

The Amazon Basin’s rivers and lakes support Nearctic-breeding shorebirds during southward migration

Identifying the migration routes and stopover sites used by declining species is critical for developing targeted conservation actions. Long-distance migratory shorebirds are among the groups of birds declining most rapidly, yet we frequently lack detailed knowledge about the routes and stopover sites they use during their hemisphere-spanning migrations. This is especially true for species that migrate through mid-continental regions in the Western Hemisphere. We therefore used satellite transmitters to track 212 individuals of 6 shorebird species during their southward migrations— Pluvialis dominica (American Golden-Plover), Limosa haemastica (Hudsonian Godwit), Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs), and Calidris subruficollis (Buff-breasted Sandpiper), C. melanotos (Pectoral Sandpiper), and Bartramia longicauda (Upland Sandpiper)—as they crossed the Amazon Basin of South America, a region from which reports of shorebird numbers are increasing but remain relatively rare. Our results make clear that the Amazon Basin provides stopover habitat for a large number of shorebirds: more than 74% of individuals tracked crossing the Amazon Basin stopped over in the region for an average of 2–14 days, with some spending the entire nonbreeding season there. All species selected stopover sites along the region’s many rivers and lakes, while within stopover sites each species exhibited distinct habitat preferences. The timing of stopovers within sub-basins of the Amazon Basin also coincided with periods of low water, when the muddy, shallow water habitats preferred by most shorebirds are likely plentiful. Together, our results highlight the need for detailed investigations into shorebird abundance and distribution within the Amazon Basin, threats to shorebirds within particular subbasins, and links between shorebird conservation efforts and those targeting the myriad other species that inhabit this dynamic, hyper-diverse region.

Amazon Basin

Exposure to risk factors experienced during migration is not associated with recent Vermivora warbler population trends

Context Understanding the factors limiting populations of animals is critical for effective conservation. Determining which factors limit populations of migratory species can be especially challenging because of their reliance on multiple, often geographically distant regions during their annual cycles. Objectives We investigated whether distribution-wide variation in recent breeding population trends was more strongly associated with exposure to risk factors experienced during migration (i.e., natural and anthropogenic threats often associated with increased mortality or carry-over effects) or factors associated with breeding and nonbreeding areas in golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and blue-winged warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), two Nearctic-Neotropical migrants experiencing regionally variable population trends. Methods We used geolocator data from 85 Vermivora warblers ( n = 90 geolocator tracks) tracked from North American breeding locations and Central American nonbreeding locations from 2013 to 2017 to determine variation in space use among populations. We assessed whether differences in space use among populations of Vermivora warblers during migration were associated with exposure to migration risk-factors and whether increased relative exposure to migration risk factors was associated with population declines at regional and subregional scales. Results Regional and subregional populations of Vermivora warblers exhibited variation in space use and exposure to anthropogenic and natural risk-factors. However, we found no evidence that recent variation in population trends of Vermivora warblers was associated with risk-factors experienced by different populations during migration. Instead, factors associated with land cover-types in breeding and nonbreeding areas were more strongly associated with recent population trends. Conclusions Understanding how populations of migratory birds are affected by factors experienced during migration is critical for their conservation. We did not find evidence that variation in exposure to migration risk-factors is associated with recent regional or subregional variation in Vermivora warbler population trends. Consequently, our results suggest that efforts to reverse ongoing population declines of Vermivora warblers may be more effective if directed toward conservation actions targeting limiting factors within the breeding and nonbreeding periods versus those directed at conditions encountered during migration. We caution that geographic variation in projected land-use change may differentially affect areas used by different populations of Vermivora warblers during migration, posing a potential threat to these species in the future.

Landscape Ecology

Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non‐breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process‐based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process‐based model to evaluate how Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) foraging on common eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual‐based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth‐related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass‐dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time for which birds were disturbed. We discuss the consequences of these predictions for Black Brant conservation. A wide range of migratory species responses are expected in response to environmental change. Process‐based models are potential tools to predict such responses and understand the mechanisms which underpin them.

California

Land use and small mammal predation effects on shortgrass prairie birds

Grassland birds endemic to the central shortgrass prairie ecoregion of the United States have experienced steep and widespread declines over the last 3 decades, and factors influencing reproductive success have been implicated. Nest predation is the major cause of nest failure in passerines, and nesting success for some shortgrass prairie birds is exceptionally low. The 3 primary land uses in the central shortgrass prairie ecoregion are native shortgrass prairie rangeland (62), irrigated and nonirrigated cropland (29), and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP, 8). Because shortgrasscropland edges and CRP may alter the community of small mammal predators of grassland bird nests, I sampled multiple sites on and near the Pawnee National Grasslands in northeast Colorado, USA, to evaluate 1) whether small mammal species richness and densities were greater in CRP fields and shortgrass prairiecropland edges compared to shortgrass prairie habitats, and 2) whether daily survival probabilities of ground-nesting grassland bird nests were negatively correlated with densities of small mammals. Small mammal species richness and densities, estimated using trapping webs, were generally greater along edges and on CRP sites compared to shortgrass sites. Vegetation did not differ among edges and shortgrass sites but did differ among CRP and shortgrass sites. Daily survival probabilities of artificial nests at edge and CRP sites and natural nests at edge sites did not differ from shortgrass sites, and for natural nests small mammal densities did not affect nest survival. However, estimated daily survival probability of artificial nests was inversely proportional to thirteen-lined ground squirrel (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus) densities. In conclusion, these data suggest that although land-use patterns on the shortgrass prairie area in my study have substantial effects on the small mammal community, insufficient data existed to determine whether land-use patterns or small mammal density were affecting grassland bird nest survival. These findings will be useful to managers for predicting the effects of land-use changes in the shortgrass prairie on small mammal communities and avian nest success. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Freezing temperatures restrict woody plant recruitment and restoration efforts in abandoned montane pastures

Tropical montane forests are being lost at an alarming rate but harbor some of the globe’s most unique biodiversity. The Hawaiian archipelago is a prime example of the importance of high elevation forests to species conservation and persistence as they serve as the last refugia for Hawaiian birds. Yet these forests have been converted to invasive dominated pastures, and efforts to restore them have been met with limited success. Unsuccessful forest restoration may be due to freezing temperatures acting as a demographic bottleneck by killing seedlings recruiting into pastures. We determined freezing tolerances of eight common native woody plants at a high-elevation forest on Hawaiʻi Island and compared these freezing tolerances to two years of site-specific winter temperatures and 17 years of regional temperature records. Low temperature extremes were more severe and common in pastures than under nearby 30-year-old canopy trees. Freezing temperatures over two years were severe enough to damage leaf tissues of six of eight species tested. Those species that displayed the greatest freezing tolerance were also those found naturally recruiting into open pastures. Temperature trends over the past 17 years show monthly minimum temperatures are not increasing as predicted by climate change. Persistent severe freezing events may limit seedling recruitment in the pasture, slowing native woody plant expansion into these abandoned pastures. The species-level differences in freezing tolerance show that current management actions are using species that are at high risk to freezing damage outside of the forest canopy and that alternative species may warrant consideration.

Global Ecology and Conservation

Hidden in plain sight: Migration routes of the elusive Anadyr bar-tailed godwit revealed by satellite tracking

Satellite and GPS tracking technology continues to reveal new migration patterns of birds which enables comparative studies of migration strategies and distributional information useful in conservation. Bar-tailed godwits in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway Limosa lapponica baueri and L. l. menzbieri are known for their long non-stop flights, however these populations are in steep decline. A third subspecies in this flyway, L. l. anadyrensis , breeds in the Anadyr River basin, Chukotka, Russia, and is morphologically distinct from menzbieri and baueri based on comparison of museum specimens collected from breeding areas. However, the non-breeding distribution, migration route and population size of anadyrensis are entirely unknown. Among 24 female bar-tailed godwits tracked in 2015–2018 from northwest Australia, the main non-breeding area for menzbieri , two birds migrated further east than the rest to breed in the Anadyr River basin, i.e. they belonged to the anadyrensis subspecies. During pre-breeding migration, all birds staged in the Yellow Sea and then flew to the breeding grounds in the eastern Russian Arctic. After breeding, these two birds migrated southwestward to stage in Russia on the Kamchatka Peninsula and on Sakhalin Island en route to the Yellow Sea. This contrasts with the other 22 tracked godwits that followed the previously described route of menzbieri , i.e. they all migrated northwards to stage in the New Siberian Islands before turning south towards the Yellow Sea, and onwards to northwest Australia. Since the Kamchatka Peninsula was not used by any of the tracked menzbieri birds, the 4500 godwits counted in the Khairusova–Belogolovaya estuary in western Kamchatka may well be anadyrensis . Comparing migration patterns across the three bar-tailed godwits subspecies, the migration strategy of anadyrensis lies between that of menzbieri and baueri . Future investigations combining migration tracks with genomic data could reveal how differences in migration routines are evolved and maintained.

Journal of Avian Biology

Using landscape ecology to test hypotheses about large-scale abundance patterns in migratory birds

The hypothesis that Neotropical migrant birds may be undergoing widespread declines due to land use activities on the breeding grounds has been examined primarily by synthesizing results from local studies. Growing concern for the cumulative influence of land use activities on ecological systems has heightened the need for large—scale studies to complement what has been observed at local scales. We investigated possible landscape effects on Neotropical migrant bird populations for the eastern United States by linking two large—scale inventories designed to monitor breeding—bird abundances and land use patterns. The null hypothesis of no relation between landscape structure and Neotropical migrant abundance was tested by correlating measures of landscape structure with bird abundance, while controlling for the geographic distance among samples. Neotropical migrants as a group were more sensitive to landscape structure than either temperate migrants or permanent residents. Neotropical migrants tended to be more abundant in landscapes with a greater proportion of forest and wetland habitats, fewer edge habitats, larger forest patches, and with forest habitats well dispersed throughout the scene. Permanent residents showed few correlations with landscape structure and temperate migrants were associated with habitat diversity and edge attributes rather than with the amount, size, and dispersion of forest habitats. The association between Neotropical migrant abundance and forest fragmentation differed among physiographic strata, suggesting that landscape context affects observed relations between bird abundance and landscape structure. Finally, associations between landscape structure and temporal trends in Neotropical migrant abundance were counter to those observed in space. Trends in Neotropical migrant abundance were negatively correlated with forest habitats. These results suggest that extrapolation of patterns observed in some landscapes is not likely to hold regionally, and that conservation policies must consider the variation in landscape structure associations observed among different types of bird species and in physiographic strata with varying land use histories.

Ecology

Book review: Mosquito eradication: The story of killing Campto

In 1826, the paradise that was the Hawaiian Islands was changed forever when the first mosquito species was accidentally introduced to the island of Maui. Though it has not lived up to its potential as a vector of human disease in the islands, Culex quinquefasciatus and the avian pathogens it transmits laid waste to perhaps the world's most remarkable insular avifauna. Today the lowland native forests, once deafening with birdsong, are largely devoid of native birds and Cx. quinquefasciatus has become an inextricable part of our natural areas. In the Hawaiian Islands, the conservation community struggles to keep invasive species out and to control a number of species that have become naturalized. Despite the millions of dollars spent, these efforts never seem enough to slow the erosion of our native biota. The restoration and long-term preservation of Hawaiian forest birds depend on the nearly complete control of mosquito-borne avian disease, an obstacle that to many land managers appears insurmountable. To rally hope in Hawai`i, the conservation community needs to see a success. As a Pacific island, Hawai`i shares similar conservation problems with New Zealand and has often looked to that nation for innovation and inspiration. Mosquito Eradication: The Story of Killing Campto may be our latest inspiration. Review info: Mosquito Eradication: The Story of Killing Campto. By Brian H. Kay, and Richard C. Russell (eds.), 2013. ISBN: 978-1486300570, 280 pp.

American Entomologist

Nest remains are insufficient to identify predators of waterfowl nests

Context: Nest predation is a leading cause of nest failure for most ground-nesting birds. Methods that allow for accurate classification of fate and identification of predators are important for understanding productivity and conservation strategies. Past studies have used a visual inspection of nest remains to determine nest fate and predict predator identity. Most formal assessments of these methods have addressed small-bodied birds nesting in trees or shrubs, and have revealed that use of evidence at nests can be relatively accurate for determining nest fate but may lead to incorrect conclusions regarding predator identity. However, few have tested the latter hypothesis for larger ground-nesting birds with precocial young. Aim: We aimed to evaluate a classification system developed for determining nest fate and identifying predators of waterfowl nests, at both the scale of individual nests and across the study area. Methods: From 2016 to 2020, we located 989 blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ), mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) nests in central North Dakota. We placed cameras at a subset of 249 nests and recorded evidence of nest remains at depredated nests. Key results: The most common predators were American badgers ( Taxidea taxus ), followed by striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ), raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) and red foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ). Using evidence of nest remains, we determined nest fates with high accuracy (98.0%). However, evidence of nest remains was only sufficient for identifying predators at 50% of nests, and the classification system was correct only 69.7% of the time. The predicted proportion of predators across the study area differed between the classification system and our video evidence as well. Conclusions: The accuracy of predator identifications based upon the classification system that we evaluated was not supported at any scale. Implications: Our results suggest that evidence of nest remains can be used to determine nest fate for large-bodied precocial, ground-nesting birds, but accurate identification of nest predators will require alternative methods such as nest cameras.

Wildlife Research

Landscape-level impact of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala

Tropical forest destruction and fragmentation of habitat patches may reduce population persistence at the landscape level. Given the complex nature of simultaneously evaluating the effects of these factors on biotic populations, statistical presence/absence modelling has become an important tool in conservation biology. This study uses logistic regression to evaluate the independent effects of tropical forest cover and fragmentation on bird occurrence in eastern Guatemala. Logistic regression models were constructed for 10 species with varying response to habitat alteration. Predictive variables quantified forest cover, fragmentation and their interaction at three different radii (200, 500 and 1000 m scales) of 112 points where presence of target species was determined. Most species elicited a response to the 1000 m scale, which was greater than most species’ reported territory size. Thus, their presence at the landscape scale is probably regulated by extra-territorial phenomena, such as dispersal. Although proportion of forest cover was the most important predictor of species’ presence, there was strong evidence of area-independent and -dependent fragmentation effects on species presence, results that contrast with other studies from northernmost latitudes. Species’ habitat breadth was positively correlated with AIC model values, indicating a better fit for species more restricted to tropical forest. Species with a narrower habitat breadth also elicited stronger negative responses to forest loss. Habitat breadth is thus a simple measure that can be directly related to species’ vulnerability to landscape modification. Model predictive accuracy was acceptable for 4 of 10 species, which were in turn those with narrower habitat breadths.

Cerro San Gil Watershed Protection Reserve

Land cover differentially affects abundance of common and rare birds

While rare species are vulnerable to global change, large declines in common species (i.e., those with large population sizes, large geographic distributions, and/or that are habitat generalists) also are of conservation concern. Understanding if and how commonness mediates species' responses to global change, including land cover change, can help guide conservation strategies. We explored avian population responses to land cover change along a gradient from common to rare species using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Specifically, we used generalized linear mixed effects models to ask if species' commonness affected the relationship between land cover and counts, using the initial amount of and change in land cover surrounding each North American BBS route from 2001 to 2016. We quantified species' commonness as a continuous metric at the national scale using the logarithm (base 10) of each species' total count across all routes in the conterminous United States in 2001. For our focal 15-year period, we found that higher proportions of initial natural land cover favored (i.e., were correlated with higher) counts of rare but not common species. We also found that commonness mediated how change in human land cover, but not natural land cover, was associated with species' counts at the end of the study period. Increases in developed lands did not favor counts of any species. Increases in agriculture and declines in pasture favored counts of common but not rare species. Our findings show a signal of commonness in how species respond to a major dimension of global change. Evaluating how and why commonness mediates species' responses to land cover change can help managers design conservation portfolios that sustain the spectrum of common to rare species.

Global Change Biology