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A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

Conservation Biology

Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: Response to Hamilton and Miller (2016)

Hamilton and Miller ( 2016 ) provide an interesting and provocative discussion of how hybridization and introgression can promote evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. They argue that hybridization—mating between individuals from genetically distinct populations—can alleviate inbreeding depression and promote adaptive introgression and evolutionary rescue. We agree that deliberate intraspecific hybridization (mating between individuals of the same species) is an underused management tool for increasing fitness in inbred populations (i.e., genetic rescue; Frankham 2015 ; Whiteley et al. 2015 ). The potential risks and benefits of assisted gene flow have been discussed in the literature, and an emerging consensus suggests that mating between populations isolated for approximately 50–100 generations can benefit fitness, often with a minor risk of outbreeding depression (Frankham et al. 2011 ; Aitken & Whitlock 2013 ; Allendorf et al. 2013 ).

Conservation Biology

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and non-anadromous bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

Columbia River Basin

Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.

Conservation Biology

Trade-offs and efficiencies in optimal budget-constrained multispecies corridor networks

Conservation biologists recognize that a system of isolated protected areas will be necessary but insufficient to meet biodiversity objectives. Current approaches to connecting core conservation areas through corridors consider optimal corridor placement based on a single optimization goal: commonly, maximizing the movement for a target species across a network of protected areas. We show that designing corridors for single species based on purely ecological criteria leads to extremely expensive linkages that are suboptimal for multispecies connectivity objectives. Similarly, acquiring the least-expensive linkages leads to ecologically poor solutions. We developed algorithms for optimizing corridors for multispecies use given a specific budget. We applied our approach in western Montana to demonstrate how the solutions may be used to evaluate trade-offs in connectivity for 2 species with different habitat requirements, different core areas, and different conservation values under different budgets. We evaluated corridors that were optimal for each species individually and for both species jointly. Incorporating a budget constraint and jointly optimizing for both species resulted in corridors that were close to the individual species movement-potential optima but with substantial cost savings. Our approach produced corridors that were within 14% and 11% of the best possible corridor connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolverines (Gulo gulo) , respectively, and saved 75% of the cost. Similarly, joint optimization under a combined budget resulted in improved connectivity for both species relative to splitting the budget in 2 to optimize for each species individually. Our results demonstrate economies of scale and complementarities conservation planners can achieve by optimizing corridor designs for financial costs and for multiple species connectivity jointly. We believe that our approach will facilitate corridor conservation by reducing acquisition costs and by allowing derived corridors to more closely reflect conservation priorities.

Conservation Biology

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ 2 H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ 2 H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences.

Conservation Biology

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.

Conservation Biology

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

Conservation Biology

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. Here, we show how geographic profiling – a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology – can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime, using data from an eight-year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe that in total includes more than 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. Using a subset of these data for which the illegal hunters’ identities are known, we show that the model can successfully identify the illegal hunters’ home villages using the spatial locations of hunting incidences (for example, snares) as input, and show how this can be improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the Conservancy to reflect the fact that – although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the Conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside (in criminology, ‘commuter crime’). The results of this analysis – combined with rigorous simulations – show for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns – for example, where landscape heterogeneity means that some parts of the study area are unsuitable (e.g. aquatic areas for terrestrial animals, or vice versa), or where landscape permeability differs (for example, forest bats tending not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target anti-poaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently, with important implications for the development of management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.

Conservation Biology

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.

Conservation Biology

Assessing effects of nonnative crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of nonnative predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of nonnative species. We examined the effect of nonnative crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.

California

The potential for citizen science to produce reliable and useful information in ecology

We examined features of citizen science that influence data quality, inferential power, and usefulness in ecology. As background context for our examination, we considered topics such as ecological sampling (probability based, purposive, opportunistic), linkage between sampling technique and statistical inference(designbased,modelbased),andscientificparadigms(confirmatory,exploratory).Wedistinguished several types of citizen science investigations, from intensive research with rigorous protocols targeting clearly articulated questions to mass-participation internet-based projects with opportunistic data collection lacking samplingdesign,andexaminedoverarchingobjectives,design,analysis,volunteertraining,andperformance. We identified key features that influence data quality: project objectives, design and analysis, and volunteer training and performance. Projects with good designs, trained volunteers, and professional oversight can meet statistical criteria to produce high-quality data with strong inferential power and therefore are well suited for ecological research objectives. Projects with opportunistic data collection, little or no sampling design, and minimal volunteer training are better suited for general objectives related to public education or data exploration because reliable statistical estimation can be difficult or impossible. In some cases, statistically robust analytical methods, external data, or both may increase the inferential power of certain opportunistically collected data. Ecological management, especially by government agencies, frequently requires data suitable for reliable inference. With standardized protocols, state-of-the-art analytical methods, and well-supervised programs, citizen science can make valuable contributions to conservation by increasing the scope of species monitoring efforts. Data quality can be improved by adhering to basic principles of data collection and analysis, designing studies to provide the data quality required, and including suitable statistical expertise, thereby strengthening the science aspect of citizen science and enhancing acceptance by the scientific community and decision makers.

Conservation Biology

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long‐term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short‐term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short‐term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time‐to‐event analysis on a database of unusually well‐monitored and long‐term (4–28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life‐history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time‐lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life‐history theory with short‐lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long‐lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long‐lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short‐lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life‐history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life‐history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long‐term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life‐histories take decades to unfold.

Conservation Biology

The dilemma of pest suppression in the conservation of endangered species

In the conservation of endangered species, active suppression of a population of one native species to benefit another native species poses particular challenges. Obvious examples include predator control and nest parasite reduction. Less obvious is the control of blood-feeding arthropods. We present a case study on the effect of blood-feeding black flies (Simulium spp.) on reintroduced Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Our intent is to provide a transferrable, science-driven approach for determining the effects of blood-feeding arthropods on endangered vertebrates, and demonstrate an approach for guiding selection of management actions for managers faced with competing objectives. A multi-year experiment demonstrated that black flies reduce nest success in reintroduced cranes by driving the birds off their nests during incubation. Deciding how to respond, however, is complicated because the target black flies are native species that serve important ecological functions. We suggest that a decision-analytic approach can inspire the development of creative management alternatives and facilitate a transparent process that evaluates trade-offs among competing objectives. Recognizing that these decisions involve trade-offs, which must be weighed in the context of each case, is crucial to identifying alternatives that best balance multiple management objectives. Given the uncertainty about the population dynamics of blood-feeding arthropods, an adaptive management approach will offer substantial benefits.

Wisconsin

Trends in biodiversity and habitat quantification tools used for market‐based conservation in the United States

Market-based conservation mechanisms are designed to facilitate conservation and mitigation actions for habitat and biodiversity. Their potential is partly hindered, however, by issues surrounding the quantification tools used to assess habitat quality and functionality. Specifically, a lack of transparency and standardization in tool development and gaps in tool availability are cited concerns. To address these issues, we collected information about tools used in United States conservation mechanisms such as eco-label and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs, conservation banking, and habitat exchanges. We summarized information about tools and explored trends among and within mechanisms using criteria detailing geographic, ecological, and technical features of tools. We identified 69 tools that assessed at least 34 species and 39 habitat types. Where tools reported pricing, 98% were freely available. Most tools required a moderate or greater level of user skill. More tools were applied to states along the west coast of the United States than elsewhere and the level of tool transferability varied markedly among mechanisms. Tools most often incorporated conditions at numerous spatial scales, frequently addressed multiple risks to site viability, and required from 1 to 83 data inputs. Finally, average tool complexity estimates were similar among all mechanisms except PES programs. Our results illustrate the diversity among tools in their ecological features, data needs, and geographic application, supporting concerns about a lack of standardization. However, consistency among tools in user skill requirements, the incorporation of multiple spatial scales, and complexity highlight important commonalities that could serve as a starting point for establishing more standardized tool development and feature incorporation processes. Greater standardization in tool design may not only expand market participation, but may also facilitate a needed assessment of the effectiveness of market-based conservation.

Conservation Biology

A network approach to prioritize conservation efforts for migratory birds

Habitat loss can trigger migration network collapse by isolating migratory birds’ breeding grounds from non-breeding grounds. Theoretically, habitat loss can have vastly different impacts depending on the site’s importance within the migratory corridor. However, migration network connectivity and the impacts of site loss are not completely understood. Here we used GPS tracking data from four bird species in the Asian flyways to construct migration networks, and proposed a framework for assessing network connectivity for migratory species. We used a node removal process to identify stopover sites with the highest impact on connectivity. In general, migration networks with fewer stopover sites were more vulnerable to habitat loss. Node removal in order from the highest to lowest degree of habitat loss yielded an increase of network resistance similar to random removal. In contrast, resistance increased more rapidly when removing nodes in order from the highest to lowest betweenness value. We quantified the risk of migration network collapse and identified crucial sites by first selecting sites with large contributions to network connectivity, and then identifying which of those sites were likely to be removed from the network (i.e., sites experiencing habitat loss). Among these crucial sites, 42% were not designated as protected areas. Setting priorities for site protection should account for the site’s position within the migration network, rather than only site-specific characteristics. Our framework for assessing migration network connectivity enables site prioritization for conservation of migratory species.

Conservation Biology

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but one that remains unapproachable for many species. This is particularly true for species with multiple, broadly-distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently-developed method of multiple population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We build on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT), a species listed under the US Endangered Species Act which is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin, USA. We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams where LCT exist or may be reintroduced.

Conservation Biology