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Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk

Review of Sky dance of the woodcock: The habits and habitats of a strange little bird by Greg Hoch

American Woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) have enthralled conservationists (including Aldo Leopold), bird watchers, wildlife enthusiasts, hunters, and others interested in the natural world for centuries. No doubt, woodcock also have enthralled humans in North America for millennia prior to written descriptions of the woodcock’s courtship displays, habitat preferences, and curious behavior and anatomy. As perhaps the most extensively studied species of shorebird in the world, there is a rich and extensive literature, both scientific and popular, focused on woodcock ecology, behavior, and hunting. To that extensive body of literature, Sky Dance of the Woodcock provides an updated summary of their natural history, habitat relations, and conservation. Sky Dance of the Woodcock takes its title from the courtship display of male woodcock, which consists of an elaborate aerial flight incorporating sound produced both vocally and mechanically via highly modified flight feathers. The aerial displays are accompanied by similarly unusual behavior on the ground, including a distinctive ‘peent’ call. This courtship display happens across much of eastern North America each spring, and Hoch uses this wonder to capture the imagination of the readers of his text. Hoch begins the book with an overview of some of the mystery and fascination surrounding woodcock and builds from that opening to describe woodcock anatomy, natural history, and behavior, before describing their courtship display in greater detail. From there, Hoch describes woodcock-habitat relations, provides a historical overview of woodcock hunting, identifies current threats to woodcock populations, summarizes past and recent woodcock research, and finally, presents an updated overview of woodcock conservation and habitat management. Throughout, there is sometimes surprising information about things as simple as what woodcock eat, to more complex assessment of how woodcock use landscapes and migrate to and from spring and summer breeding areas. This book will undoubtedly appeal to woodcock enthusiasts of a variety to stripes. Woodcock hunters and bird watchers alike will learn something about woodcock-habitat relations, behavior, and conservation. Professional biologists and researchers will benefit from Hoch’s synthesis of a wide range of information about woodcock, and landowners and managers can use some of the concepts in this book to inform their decisions about how to manage lands under their control. Along the way, everyone who reads Sky Dance of the Woodcock is likely to come away with an enhanced appreciation of this captivating bird.

Prairie Naturalist

Modeling effects of crop production, energy development and conservation-grassland loss on avian habitat

Birds are essential components of most ecosystems and provide many services valued by society. However, many populations have undergone striking declines as their habitats have been lost or degraded by human activities. Terrestrial grasslands are vital habitat for birds in the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), but grassland conversion and fragmentation from agriculture and energy-production activities have destroyed or degraded millions of hectares. Conservation grasslands can provide alternate habitat. In the United States, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the largest program maintaining conservation grasslands on agricultural lands, but conservation grasslands in the PPR have declined by over 1 million ha since the program’s zenith in 2007. We used an ecosystem-services model (InVEST) parameterized for the PPR to quantify grassland-bird habitat remaining in 2014 and to assess the degradation status of the remaining grassland-bird habitat as influenced by crop and energy (i.e., oil, natural gas, and wind) production. We compared our resultant habitat-quality ratings to grassland-bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to confirm that ratings were related to grassland-bird abundance. Of the grassland-bird habitat remaining in 2014, about 19% was degraded by crop production that occurred within 0.1 km of grassland habitats, whereas energy production degraded an additional 16%. We further quantified the changes in availability of grassland-bird habitat under various land-cover scenarios representing incremental losses (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) of CRP grasslands from 2014 levels. Our model identified 1 million ha (9%) of remaining grassland-bird habitat in the PPR that would be lost or degraded if all CRP conservation grasslands were returned to crop production. Grassland regions world-wide face similar challenges in maintaining avian habitat in the face of increasing commodity and energy production to sate the food and energy needs of a growing world population. Identifying ways to model the impacts of the tradeoff between food and energy production and wildlife production is an important step in creating solutions.

Prairie Pothole Region

Characterization of low-pathogenicity H5N1 avian influenza viruses from North America

Wild-bird surveillance in North America for avian influenza (AI) viruses with a goal of early identification of the Asian H5N1 highly pathogenic AI virus has identified at least six low-pathogenicity H5N1 AI viruses between 2004 and 2006. The hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes from all 6 H5N1 viruses and an additional 38 North American wild-bird-origin H5 subtype and 28 N1 subtype viruses were sequenced and compared with sequences available in GenBank by phylogenetic analysis. Both HA and NA were phylogenetically distinct from those for viruses from outside of North America and from those for viruses recovered from mammals. Four of the H5N1 AI viruses were characterized as low pathogenicity by standard in vivo pathotyping tests. One of the H5N1 viruses, A/MuteSwan/MI/451072-2/06, was shown to replicate to low titers in chickens, turkeys, and ducks. However, transmission of A/MuteSwan/MI/451072-2/06 was more efficient among ducks than among chickens or turkeys based on virus shed. The 50% chicken infectious dose for A/MuteSwan/MI/451072-2/06 and three other wild-waterfowl-origin H5 viruses were also determined and were between 10 5.3 and 107.5 50% egg infective doses. Finally, seven H5 viruses representing different phylogenetic clades were evaluated for their antigenic relatedness by hemagglutination inhibition assay, showing that the antigenic relatedness was largely associated with geographic origin. Overall, the data support the conclusion that North American H5 wild-bird-origin AI viruses are low-pathogenicity wild-bird-adapted viruses and are antigenically and genetically distinct from the highly pathogenic Asian H5N1 virus lineage. Copyright ?? 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Journal of Virology

Selenium and boron in aquatic birds from central California

Subsurface agricultural drainwater used for marsh management has resulted in trace element contamination of aquatic bird food chains in central California. Consequently, we collected breeding and wintering aquatic birds from the Grassland Water District (GWD) of California during 1985-88 to measure selenium (Se) and boron (B) contamination resulting from use of such drainage water for wetland management. During the breeding and wintering periods, livers of birds from the North and South areas of the Grasslands contained concentrations of Se and B that have been associated with reproductive impairment. Birds from the South Grasslands, which had received more undiluted drainage water, were more contaminated than those from the North Grasslands. Birds had higher (P < 0.001) levels of Se and B at the end of the 1985-86 wintering period than at the beginning, indicating that the Grasslands was the major source of contamination. Concentrations of Se decreased from 1985 through 1988, after freshwater was substituted for irrigation drainage water during autumn 1985. B concentrations in wintering birds, except for American coots (Fulica americana), declined to background levels, while concentrations in breeding birds remained slightly elevated. However, after 3 years of freshwater management of the Grasslands, liver Se levels in some breeding and wintering birds still were above concentrations associated with impaired reproduction in laboratory and field studies. In areas with high potential for leaching of Se and B from agricultural land, irrigation drainage water should not be used for wetland management.

California

Science foundation Chapter 5 Appendix 5.1: Case study shore birds: Western sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ) and American avocets ( Recurvirostra Americana )

Western sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ) are small (22-35 g) sexually dimorphic sandpipers, with males typically smaller than females. Western sandpipers frequently occur in mixed species flocks along with other Calidris species, including least sandpipers ( Calidris minutilla ) and dunlin ( Calidris alpina ), in the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) and are the most abundant shorebird species found from fall to spring. Western sandpipers are one of the most common shorebird species in SFBE, the Pacific Flyway, and North America overall. The largest concentrations of western sandpipers, and of most shorebirds, are found in the South Bay where large expanses of mudflats are exposed at low tide and managed and/or salt ponds are available for high tide roosting and feeding habitat (Warnock et al 2002, Warnock and Takekawa 1995). In recent years, there is some evidence that there has been a shift in shorebird numbers towards the North Bay, perhaps as large salt pond restoration projects provide interim mud flat habitat during the evolution towards tidal marsh habitat (Pitkin and Wood, 2011).

California

[Book review] The known birds of North and Middle America: Distribution and variation, migrations, changes, hybrids, etc, Part I, Hirundinidae to Mimidae, Certhiidae

"Known Birds" is the culmination of Allan Phillips' long and productive career in elucidating the taxonomy and relationships of North American, particularly Mexican, birds. It reflects many years of largely independent work in the field, museum, and library. Although Part I includes contributions by Robert W. Dickerman, Amadeo M. Rea, and J. Dan Webster, the series (Part II will be available by the time this long-overdue review of Part I appears) reflects Phillips' views of avian systematics and his idiosyncratic scientific philosophy.

The Auk

Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

Book chapter

Book review: Bird census techniques, Second edition

Conservation concerns, federal mandates to monitor birds, and citizen science programs have spawned a variety of surveys that collect information on bird populations. Unfortunately, all too frequently these surveys are poorly designed and use inappropriate counting methods. Some of the flawed approaches reflect a lack of understanding of statistical design; many ornithologists simply are not aware that many of our most entrenched counting methods (such as point counts) cannot appropriately be used in studies that compare densities of birds over space and time. It is likely that most of the readers of The Condor have participated in a bird population survey that has been criticized for poor sampling methods. For example, North American readers may be surprised to read in Bird Census Techniques that the North American Breeding Bird Survey 'is seriously flawed in its design,' and that 'Analysis of trends is impossible from points that are positioned along roads' (p. 109). Our conservation efforts are at risk if we do not acknowledge these concerns and improve our survey designs. Other surveys suffer from a lack of focus. In Bird Census Techniques, the authors emphasize that all surveys require clear statements of objectives and an understanding of appropriate survey designs to meet their objectives. Too often, we view survey design as the realm of ornithologists who know the life histories and logistical issues relevant to counting birds. This view reflects pure hubris: survey design is a collaboration between ornithologists, statisticians, and managers, in which goals based on management needs are met by applying statistical principles for design to the biological context of the species of interest. Poor survey design is often due to exclusion of some of these partners from survey development. Because ornithologists are too frequently unaware of these issues, books such as Bird Census Techniques take on added importance as manuals for educating ornithologists about the relevance of survey design and methods and the often subtle interdisciplinary nature of surveys. Review info: Bird Census Techniques, Second Edition. By Colin J. Bibby, Neil D. Burgess, David A. Hill, and Simon H. Mustoe. 2000. Academic Press, London, UK. xvii 1 302 pp. ISBN 0- 12-095831-7.

Condor

Netting bias in tropical bird studies

Mist netting is the method most commonly used for gathering quantitative information on birds in the American tropics. Point count surveys or other methods often are used in conjunction with netting to reduce some of the many biases associated with netting, specially the failure of stationary nets within 2 m of the ground to sample birds of the tall canopy. We compare totals by both methods. Even close to the ground there are biases related to time of day and mesh size that have not been addressed in tropical studies. Some researchers operate nets all day, others only in the morning or in the morning and evening. Since 1986 we have netted birds and conducted point count surveys at more than 130 sites representing a broad spectrum of habitats in Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. Using data only from those days when we could operate nets continuously from about dawn to dusk, we compare capture rates throughout the day to show the bias per part-day operations for certain families and species of birds and for the ratio of neotropical migrants to resident birds. More than half of 5000+ birds captured were caught after noon. Trochilidae and parulinae were captured primarily in the morning, Dendrocolaptidae in the middle of the day. Tyrannidae were more active than most birds in early afternoon, and Turdinae had morning and evening peaks. At each site we use a combination of 30-mm and 36-mm nets. The 30-mm mesh consistently captured more seedeaters, gnatcatchers, and small warblers, whereas the 36-mm mesh was more effective for birds of thrush size and larger.

Book chapter

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Journal of Wildlife Management

A point mutation in the polymerase protein PB2 allows a reassortant H9N2 influenza isolate of wild-bird origin to replicate in human cells.

H9N2 influenza A viruses are on the list of potentially pandemic subtypes. Therefore, it is important to understand how genomic reassortment and genetic polymorphisms affect phenotypes of H9N2 viruses circulating in the wild bird reservoir. A comparative genetic analysis of North American H9N2 isolates of wild bird origin identified a naturally occurring reassortant virus containing gene segments derived from both North American and Eurasian lineage ancestors. The PB2 segment of this virus encodes 10 amino acid changes that distinguish it from other H9 strains circulating in North America. G590S, one of the 10 amino acid substitutions observed, was present in ~ 12% of H9 viruses worldwide. This mutation combined with R591 has been reported as a marker of pathogenicity for human pandemic 2009 H1N1 viruses. Screening by polymerase reporter assay of all the natural polymorphisms at these two positions identified G590/K591 and S590/K591 as the most active, with the highest polymerase activity recorded for the SK polymorphism. Rescued viruses containing these two polymorphic combinations replicated more efficiently in MDCK cells and they were the only ones tested that were capable of establishing productive infection in NHBE cells. A global analysis of all PB2 sequences identified the K591 signature in six viral HA/NA subtypes isolated from several hosts in seven geographic locations. Interestingly, introducing the K591 mutation into the PB2 of a human-adapted H3N2 virus did not affect its polymerase activity. Our findings demonstrate that a single point mutation in the PB2 of a low pathogenic H9N2 isolate could have a significant effect on viral phenotype and increase its propensity to infect mammals. However, this effect is not universal, warranting caution in interpreting point mutations without considering protein sequence context.

Infection, Genetics and Evolution

Wild bird mortality and West Nile virus surveillance: Biases associated with detection, reporting, and carcass persistence

Surveillance targeting dead wild birds, in particular American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), plays a critical role in West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance in the United States. Using crow decoy surrogates, detection and reporting of crow carcasses within urban and rural environments of DeKalb County, Georgia were assessed for potential biases that might occur in the county's WNV surveillance program. In each of two replicated trials, during July and September 2003, 400 decoys were labeled with reporting instructions and distributed along randomly chosen routes throughout designated urban and rural areas within DeKalb County. Information-theoretic methods were used to compare alternative models incorporating the effects of area and trial on probabilities of detection and reporting. The model with the best empirical support included the effects of area on both detection and reporting of decoys. The proportion of decoys detected in the urban area (0.605, SE=0.024) was approximately twice that of the rural area (0.293, SE =0.023), and the proportion of decoys reported in the urban area (0.273, SE =0.023) was approximately three times that of the rural area (0.103, SE=0.028). These results suggest that human density and associated factors can substantially influence dead crow detection and reporting and, thus, the perceived distribution of WNV. In a second and separate study, the persistence and fate of American crow and house sparrow (Passer domesticus) carcasses were assessed in urban and rural environments in Athens-Clarke, Madison, and Oconee counties, Georgia. Two replicated trials using 96 carcasses of each species were conducted during July and September 2004. For a portion of the carcasses, motion sensitive cameras were used to monitor scavenging species visits. Most carcasses (82%) disappeared or were decayed by the end of the 6-day study. Carcass persistence averaged 1.6 days in rural areas and 2.1 days in urban areas. We analyzed carcass persistence rates using a known-fate model framework in program MARK. Model selection based on Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that the best model explaining carcass persistence rates included species and number of days of exposure; however, the model including area and number of days of exposure received approximately equal support. Model-averaged carcass persistence rates were higher for urban areas and for crow carcasses. Six mammalian and one avian species were documented scavenging upon carcasses. Dead wild birds could represent potential sources of oral WNV exposure to these scavenging species. Species composition of the scavenger assemblage was similar in urban and rural areas but "scavenging pressure" was greater in rural areas. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region

Conservation genomics reveals multiple evolutionary units within Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii ).

The Bell&rsquo;s Vireo ( Vireo bellii ) is a widespread North American species of bird that has declined since the mid-1960s primarily due to habitat modification. Throughout its range, Bell&rsquo;s Vireo populations are regulated under varying degrees of protection; however, the species has never been characterized genetically. Therefore, the current taxonomy used to guide management decisions may misrepresent the true evolutionary history for the species. We sequenced 86 individuals for ND2 and genotyped 48 individuals for genome-wide SNPs to identify distinct lineages within Bell&rsquo;s Vireo. Phylogenetic analyses uncovered two distinct clades that are separated in the arid southwestern United States, near the border of the Chihuahuan and Sonoran Deserts. These clades diverged from each other approximately 1.11&ndash;2.04 mya. The timing of diversification, geographic location, and niche modeling of the east/west divergence suggest vicariance as a mode of diversification for these two lineages. Analyses of the SNP dataset provided additional resolution and indicated the Least Bell&rsquo;s Vireo populations are a distinct evolutionary lineage. Our genetic evidence, together with information from morphology and behavior, suggests that the Bell&rsquo;s Vireo complex involves two species, each containing two separate subspecies. This new information has implications for the federal, state and other listing status of Bell&rsquo;s Vireo throughout its range.

Arizona, California, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, O

Host‐seeking activity and avian host preferences of mosquitoes associated with West Nile virus transmission in the northeastern U.S.A.

Mosquito host‐seeking activity was studied using a custom‐designed trap to explore: (1) at which time interval of the night adult mosquito abatement would be most effective, and (2) if there exists an avian‐specific host‐seeking preference. Overnight trials using traps baited with dry ice showed that Aedes taeniorhynchus (Wiedemann) was most active at dusk and was then captured throughout the night. In contrast, Culex spp. ( Cx. pipiens (Linnaeus) and Cx. restuans (Theobald) delayed most activity until about two h after dusk and were then captured through the night. This pattern suggests that management activities directed at adult Culex spp. would be most effective if initiated well after sunset. Mosquito capture rates in traps baited with birds in net bags were significantly greater than those with empty net bags, indicating that mosquitoes were attracted to the birds and not incidentally being sucked in by the custom trap's strong fan motor (Wilcoxon matched‐pairs signed‐ranks test, n = 24, t = 30, p < 0.05). Regression analysis showed that bird weight influenced mosquito attraction ( r 2 = 0.21, p = 0.02). Trials with paired traps that contained different native bird species showed that Gray Catbirds, Dumatella carolinensis , attracted more mosquitoes than the heavier Northern Cardinals, Cardinalis cardinalis (paired samples t ‐test, t = 2.58, df = 7, p = 0.04). However, attractiveness did not differ substantially among bird species, and Gray Catbirds did not attract more mosquitoes than all other birds combined as a group. American Robins, Turdus migratorius (n = 4) were comparable in attractiveness to other bird species, but not enough American Robins were captured for a comprehensive study of mosquito avian preference.

Rhode Island

Hierarchical modeling of an invasive spread: The eurasian collared-dove streptopelia decaocto in the United States

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g., emphasize management efforts to prevent new colonization or to eradicate the species in places where it has already settled), it is essential to understand invasion mechanisms and dynamics. Quantifying and understanding what influences rates of spatial spread is a key research area for invasion theory. In this paper, we develop a model to account for occupancy dynamics of an invasive species. Our model extends existing models to accommodate several elements of invasive processes; we chose the framework of hierarchical modeling to assess site occupancy status during an invasion. First, we explicitly accounted for spatial structure and how distance among sites and position relative to one another affect the invasion spread. In particular, we accounted for the possibility of directional propagation and provided a way of estimating the direction of this possible spread. Second, we considered the influence of local density on site occupancy. Third, we decided to split the colonization process into two subprocesses, initial colonization and recolonization, which may be ground-breaking because these subprocesses may exhibit different relationships with environmental variations (such as density variation) or colonization history (e.g., initial colonization might facilitate further colonization events). Finally, our model incorporates imperfection in detection, which might be a source of substantial bias in estimating population parameters. We focused on the case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and its invasion of the United States since its introduction in the early 1980s, using data from the North American BBS (Breeding Bird Survey). The Eurasian Collared-Dove is one of the most successful invasive species, at least among terrestrial vertebrates. Our model provided estimation of the spread direction consistent with empirical observations. Site persistence probability exhibits a quadratic response to density. We also succeeded at detecting differences in the relationship between density and initial colonization vs. recolonization probabilities. We provide a map of sites that may be colonized in the future as an example of possible practical application of our work. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications