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Multistate survival models and their extensions in Program MARK

Program MARK provides .100 models for the estimation of population parameters from mark?encounter data. The multistate model of Brownie et al. (1993) and Hestbeck et al. (1991) allows animals to move between states with a probability of transition. The simplest multistate model is an extension of the Cormack?Jolly?Seber (CJS) live recapture model. arameters estimated are state-specific survival rates and encounter probabilities and transition probabilities between states. The multistate model provides a valuable framework to evaluate important ecological questions. For example, estimation of state-specific survival and transition probabilities between the biological states of breeders and nonbreeders allows estimation of the cost of reproduction. Transitions between physical states, such as spatial areas, provide estimates needed for meta-population models. The basic multistate model uses only live recaptures, but 3 extensions are included in MARK. A multistate model with live and dead encounters is available, although the dead encounters are not state specific. Robust-design multistate models are also included in MARK, with both open and closed robust designs. These models assume that animals move between states only between primary sessions of the robust design. For the closed robust design, we can specify 12 different data types for the modeling of encounter probabilities during the primary session, including 6 versions of the closed model likelihood incorporating population size (N) directly in the likelihood, and 6 versions of the Huggins model in which N is estimated as a derived parameter outside the likelihood. One assumption that is generally necessary to estimate state-specific survival rates in the multistate model is that transitions take place immediately before encounter occasions. Otherwise, survival rates over the interval between encounter occasions are a mix of survival rates over multiple states. Advantages of using MARK to estimate the parameters of the various multistate models include flexibility of model specification to include group, time, and individual covariates, estimation of variance components, model averaging of parameter estimates, and Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures on the logit scale.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Using piecewise regression to identify biological phenomena in biotelemetry datasets

1. Technological advances in the field of animal tracking have greatly expanded the potential to remotely monitor animals, opening the door to exploring how animals shift their behavior over time or respond to external stimuli. A wide variety of animal-borne sensors can provide information on an animal’s location, movement characteristics, external environmental conditions, and internal physiological status. 2. Here, we demonstrate how piecewise regression can be used to identify the presence and timing of potential shifts in a variety of biological responses using GPS telemetry and other biologging data streams. Different biological latent states can be inferred by partitioning a time-series into multiple segments based on changes in modeled responses (e.g., their mean, variance, trend, degree of autocorrelation) and specifying a unique model structure for each interval. 3. We provide six example applications highlighting a variety of taxonomic species, data streams, timescales and biological phenomena. These examples include a short-term behavioural response (flee and return) by a trumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator following a GPS collar deployment; remote identification of parturition based on movements by a pregnant moose Alces alces ; a physiological response (spike in heart-rate) in a black bear Ursus americanus to a stressful stimulus(presence of a drone); a mortality event of a trumpeter swan signalled by changes in collar temperature and overall dynamic body acceleration; an unsupervised method for identifying the onset, return, duration and staging use of sandhill crane Antigone canadensis migration; and estimation of the transition between incubation and brood-rearing (i.e. hatching) for a breeding trumpeter swan. 4. We implement analyses using the MCP package in R, which provides functionality for specifying and fitting a wide variety of user-defined model structures in a Bayesian framework and methods for assessing and comparing models using information criteria and cross-validation measures.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report

Breeding biology of the Mountain Wren-Babbler (Gypsophila crassus)

Life history theory in ornithology has been mostly based on temperate birds in part because a relative paucity of biological data has been described for tropical species. Expanding our knowledge about life histories of tropical birds can help us to better understand global trends in life history strategies. To aid in this endeavor, we studied Mountain Wren-Babblers ( Gypsophila crassus ) breeding in Malaysian Borneo from 2009 to 2017. Relatively small (mean = 28.8 g), dark brown birds, they were cooperative breeders and foraged and cared for the nest in groups of typically 4 or 5 birds. We located 145 nests, which were globular and partially domed (91.8 mm mean opening height accounted for half of 180.7 mm total mean nest height), constructed from fern fronds on the outside and dead leaves on the inside, and most often placed on banks. Brooding attentiveness decreased with nestling age and was rare after day 7 once they began growing their primary feathers. Provisioning rate slightly increased with nestling age. Nestling growth rate constants were typical of many tropical birds, asymptoting a few days prior to fledging. Predation accounted for nearly all nest failures (87 of 88), with a daily nest predation rate for the total nesting period of 0.056 and nest success decreasing with elevation. Daily predation rate was highest during lay (0.117) and lowest during incubation (0.046). We compared these results with related species to identify potential explanations for the trends we described. The most notable result from these comparisons was that Mountain Wren-Babblers have a long incubation period (23.5 d) and adults only incubate for a small part of the day. This anomalous behavior emphasizes the importance of understanding the great variation in tropical life history strategies to ultimately improve life history theory.

Mount Kinabalu

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published from 2015 to 2019

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. The first GRSG literature summary was published early in 2018. Here we provide an update to that document by adding summaries of articles published between January 6, 2018 and October 2, 2019. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. Our original search, conducted on January 7, 2018, and the application of our criteria, resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). This update adds summaries of 69 products published between then and October 2, 2019. The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). The management topics with the largest increase in representation between the 2018 GRSG literature summary and this update were GRSG survival and GRSG population estimates or targets, which were each addressed in 16 percent of products in the original literature summary document, but were addressed in 30 and 33 percent, respectively, of newly summarized products. Topics with the largest declines in representation were conifer expansion, - 17 to 10 percent, and new geospatial data, -31 to 21 percent. We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, Digital Object Identifier (DOI), product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography (https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to journal landing pages for each original publication. A substantial body of literature has been compiled on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers for the original document and by two independent reviewers for the updated document and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

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