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USGS2008

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370 hydrologic units in Pennsylvania predicted a range of ground-water recharge from about 6.0 to 22 inches per year. A map of the predicted recharge illustrates the general magnitude and variability of recharge throughout Pennsylvania.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

In situ lung dust analysis by automated Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy: A method for assessing inorganic particles in tissue from coal miners

Context.— Overexposure to respirable coal mine dust can cause severe lung disease including progressive massive fibrosis (PMF). Field emission scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (FESEM-EDS) has been used for in situ lung dust particle analysis for evaluation of disease etiology. Automating such work can reduce time, costs, and user bias. Objective.— To develop and test an automated FESEM-EDS method for in situ analysis of inorganic particles in coal miner lung tissue. Design.— We programmed an automated FESEM-EDS procedure to collect particle size and elemental data, using lung tissue from 10 underground coal miners with PMF and 4 control cases. A statistical clustering approach was used to establish classification criteria based on particle chemistry. Data were correlated to PMF/non-PMF areas of the tissue, using corresponding brightfield microscopy images. Results for each miner case were compared with a separate corresponding analysis of particles recovered following tissue digestion. Results.— In situ analysis of miner tissues showed higher particle number densities than controls and densities were generally higher in PMF than non-PMF areas. Particle counts were typically dominated by aluminum silicates with varying percentages of silica. Compared to digestion results for the miner tissues, in situ results indicated lower density of particles (number per tissue volume), larger size, and a lower ratio of silica to total silicates—probably due to frequent particle clustering in situ. Conclusions.— Automated FESEM-EDS analysis of lung dust is feasible in situ and could be applied to a larger set of mineral dust–exposed lung tissues to investigate specific histologic features of PMF and other dust-related occupational diseases.

Archives of Pathology↗

USGS1983

Reconnaissance geochemical survey of Al Jurdhawiyah and Wadi al Jarir quadrangles, sheets 25/42 D and 25/42 C, Kingdom of Saudia Arabia

A reconnaissance wadi-sediment geochemical survey was conducted in the Al Jurdhawiyah (sheet 28/42 D) and Wadi al Jarir (sheet 2G/42 C) quadrangles in order to identify anomalies potentially related to mineralized rock. Sieved bulk-sediment fractions and pan concentrates were created from the original samples collected from wadis in the two quadrangles. A semiquantitative 30-element spectrographic analysis was completed on both the sieved bulk-sediment fraction and the pan concentrate of each sample. The results were statistically analyzed in an attempt to identify anomalous regions. Anomaly threshold values were calculated for most elements; the threshold value of an element in a data set is defined as the geometric mean value plus two standard deviations. The Bald al Jimalah West tin-tungsten deposit (MODS 02661) in the southern part of the Al Jurdhawiyah quadrangle was identified by one pan-concentrate sample containing anomalous concentrations of tin and tungsten. Samples near the Bald al Jimalah East ancient lead-zinc-silver mines (MODS 00960) contain strongly anomalous concentrations of tin and lead and to a lesser extent of tungsten and copper. Both of these regions and other regions containing anomalous concentrations of certain elements are recommended for additional studies. A comparison of results obtained from sieved bulk-sediment fractions and pan concentrates indicates that the latter is the better medium for these geochemical investigations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Hydrological conditions and evaluation of sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, southeastern Arizona

This study assessed progress toward achieving sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Arizona, through evaluation of 14 indicators of sustainable use. Sustainable use of groundwater in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed requires, at a minimum, a stable rate of groundwater discharge to, and thus base flow in, the San Pedro River. Many of the 14 indicators are therefore related to long-term or short-term effects on base flow and provide us with a means to evaluate groundwater discharge to and base flow in the San Pedro River. The indicators were based primarily on 10 to 20 years of data monitoring in the subwatershed, ending in 2012, and included subwatershedwide indicators, riparian-system indicators, San Pedro River indicators, and springs indicators. Groundwater management actions including voluntary retirement of irrigation pumping in the subwatershed resulted in about a 5,100 acre-feet (acre-ft) reduction in net human use from 2002 to 2012. Subwatershed population increased more than 10,000 during the same period. Most of the reduction occurred during 2002–07 and included reductions in groundwater pumping and increases in managed recharge; net human use varied annually by a few hundred acre-ft during 2007–12. The groundwater budget for 2012 showed a deficit of about 5,000 acre-ft, although the total water-budget uncertainty was about 5,500 acre-ft. In the vicinity of the U.S. Army’s Fort Huachuca, regional-aquifer water levels were in steady decline beginning in at least the mid-1990s (in older wells since at least the early-1970s), as the cone of depression centered on the Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca pumping centers continued to deepen. This was evident in the individual water levels on Fort Huachuca, as well as from the horizontal hydraulic gradients that extend from the pumping centers toward the San Pedro and Babocomari Rivers. Basin water levels in wells southeast of Sierra Vista, away from the river, were also experiencing declines, while some water levels closer to the river were rising. Near-stream vertical gradients along the San Pedro River showed no clear increasing or decreasing trends that would indicate a shift in the direction of subsurface flow between the riverbed and the alluvial aquifer, or a trend in the magnitude of groundwater/surface-water exchange. Annual streamflow permanence data showed no clear change in streamflow permanence trends in any of the river reaches, other than those related to precipitation trends. Similarly, the single-day, dry-season, wet-dry streamflow analysis of all subwatershed river reaches indicated no change in condition over the past 14 years, with the exception of the Hereford reach, which has seen a statistically significant increase in wetted length. Dry-season, alluvial-aquifer water levels in the Hereford reach also showed a statistically significant increase. These improvements are attributed to the end of irrigation pumping in the area. Although data indicate that the length of the Fairbank North wetted reach may be in decline, it is not yet statistically significant. Stable-isotope data indicated reduced groundwater discharge to the Babocomari River in the vicinity of the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station and to the San Pedro River near the San Pedro River at Palominas gaging station and near the Lewis Springs DCP stage recorder. The Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station is downgradient of the major pumping centers. The change in isotopic signature at the Lewis Springs stage recorder could have been the result of alterations in groundwater/surface-water interactions there caused by beaver damming of the river. Base flow in the San Pedro River declined over the periods of record at the three San Pedro River gaging stations in the subwatershed (Palominas, Charleston, and Tombstone), as well as at the Babocomari River near Tombstone gaging station. Precipitation declined slightly from the 1990s to the 2000s, although there is no statistically significant trend in subwatershed precipitation from 1991 to 2012. The occurrence of large winter discharge events appeared to decline and that of large summer discharge events appeared to increase over this same period. Data for physical parameters, general chemistry, nutrient species, select trace elements, and suspended sediment were collected at San Pedro River at Charleston stream-gaging station. These data were summarized over time and analyzed in relation to discharge and season as a means to assess trends over the period of analysis. Federal and State of Arizona drinking-water and human-contact standards were all met and few exceedances occurred for the ecological thresholds investigated. Several constituents showed a significant trend over the period of analysis, but only concentration and flux data for total phosphate, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, suspended sediment, and sulfate were suitable to be used in a weighted regression analysis that statistically accounted for time, discharge, and season. Sulfate concentrations and flux showed a significant downward trend over the period of analysis, whereas total phosphorus and ortho-phosphate showed a relatively small magnitude upward trend relative to standards. Suspended sediment concentrations and flux both showed a significant downward trend in the 1980s, an effect attributed to reduction of cattle in the subwatershed at about this time, and (or) increased cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow ( Salix goodingii ) recruitment, and (or) the curtailment of sand and gravel mining adjacent to the San Pedro River with the designation of the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area in 1988. A spike in sediment flux in 2006 may be attributable to the more than 100 debris flows in the Huachuca Mountains during the summer monsoon of that year. Spring discharge along the San Pedro River generally increased at three sites proximate to the Sierra Vista treated effluent recharge facility and varied somewhat with climate at two other sites. Median annual discharge at the recharge facility peaked in 2006, and at Murray Springs and Horsethief Spring, downgradient of the recharge facility, in 2009. Sampling for trace organic compounds in flow from springs was carried out using both discrete sampling and passive sampling methods. Spring samples thus collected showed the presence of trace-organic compounds. Lewis Springs (background site) had the least number of detections, whereas Murray Springs, located directly downgradient of the City of Sierra Vista’s treated effluent recharge facility, had the greatest number of detections of all the springs. Discrete samples from the recharge facility had more than twice the detections found in discrete samples from Murray Spring and at much higher concentrations. Few similar trace-organic compounds were detected at both the springs and the treated effluent recharge facility, and the number of detections did not increase during the collection period. Limitations of the study prevented the determination of trace-organic concentration in passive samplers and also prevented linking trace organic compounds detected at the treated effluent recharge facility with compounds detected from the springs. In particular, trace organic compounds could also derive from other sources such as septic systems. Looking at the subwatershed as a whole, base flow was in decline along the entire river reach, but determination of the specific cause of the decline was beyond the scope of this report. Conditions in the area from the municipal pumping center of Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca northeast to the river (from about the Charleston to Tombstone gaging stations) were more commonly in decline than in regions further south. Both long-term indicators, such as regional aquifer groundwater levels and horizontal gradients, and the isotope analysis indicated that groundwater discharge to the river and thus base flow may continue to decline in that area. South of Charleston, indicators were more mixed. Some indicators in the Hereford reach suggest groundwater discharge to the San Pedro River may be increasing there, whereas some indicators in the Palominas reach suggest groundwater discharge to the river there may be declining.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Establishing a pre-mining geochemical baseline at a uranium mine near Grand Canyon National Park, USA

During 2012, approximately 404,000 ha of Federal Land in northern Arizona was withdrawn from consideration of mineral extraction for a 20-year period to protect the Grand Canyon watershed from potentially adverse effects of U mineral exploration and development. The development, operation, and reclamation of the Canyon Mine during the withdrawal period provide an excellent field site to understand and document off-site migration of radionuclides within the withdrawal area. As part of the Department of Interior's (DOI's) study plan for the exclusion area, the objective of our study is to utilize pre-defined decision units (DUs) in areas within and surrounding the Canyon Mine to demonstrate how newly established incremental sampling methodologies (ISM) combined with multivariate statistical methods can be used to document a repeatable and statistically defensible measure of pre-mining baseline conditions in surface soils and stream sediment samples prior to ore extraction. During the survey in June 2013, the highest pre-mining 95% upper confidence level (UCL) concentrations with respect to As, Mo, U, and V were found in the triplicate samples collected from surface soils in the mine site DU designated as M1. Gamma activities were slightly elevated in soils within the M1 DU (up to 28 μR/h); however, off-site gamma activities in soil and stream-sediment samples were lower (< 6 to 12 μR/h). Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was applied to 33 chemical constituents contained in the multivariate data generated from the analysis of triplicate samples collected in the soil and stream sediment DUs within and surrounding Canyon Mine. Most of the triplicate samples from individual DUs were grouped in the same dendrogram cluster when using a similarity value (SV) of 0.70 (unitless). Different group membership of triplicate samples from two of the four haul road DUs was likely the result of heterogeneity induced by non-native soil material introduced from the gravel road base or from vehicular traffic. Application of HCA and ISM will provide critical metrics to meet DOI's long-term goals for assessing off-site migration of radionuclides resulting from mining and reclamation in the current (2015) exclusion area associated within the Grand Canyon watershed and the associated national park.

Arizona↗

USGS1981

Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2000

The materials flow of mercury in the economies of the United States and the world

Although natural sources of mercury exist in the environment, measured data and modeling results indicate that the amount of mercury released into the biosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial age. Mercury is naturally distributed in the air, water, and soil in minute amounts, and can be mobile within and between these media. Because of these properties and the subsequent impacts on human health, mercury was selected for an initial materials flow study, focusing on the United States in 1990. This study was initiated to provide a current domestic and international analysis. As part of an increased emphasis on materials flow, this report researched changes and identified the associated trends in mercury flows; it also updates statistics through 1996. In addition to domestic flows, the report includes an international section, because all primary mercury-producing mines are currently foreign, 86 percent of the mercury cell sector of the worldwide chlor-alkali industry is outside the United States, there is a large international mercury trade (1,395 t 1 in 1996), and environmental regulations are not uniform or similarly enforced from country to country. Environmental concerns have brought about numerous regulations that have dramatically decreased both the use and the production of mercury since the late 1980?s. Our study indicates that this trend is likely to continue into the future, as the world eliminates the large mercury inventories that have been stockpiled to support prior industrial processes and products.

Circular↗

USGS2009

The regional geochemistry of soils and willow in a metamorphic bedrock terrain, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2005, and its possible relation to moose

In 2005 willow leaves (all variants of Salix pulchra) and A-, B-, and C-horizon soils were sampled at 10 sites along a transect near the Quarry prospect and 11 sites along a transect near the Big Hurrah mine for the purpose of defining the spatial variability of elements and the regional geochemistry of willow and soil over Paleozoic metamorphic rocks potentially high in cadmium (Cd). Willow, a favorite browse of moose (Alces alces), has been shown by various investigators to bioaccumulate Cd. Moose in this region show clinical signs of tooth wear and breakage and are declining in population for unknown reasons. A trace element imbalance in their diet has been proposed as a possible cause for these observations. Cadmium, in high enough concentrations, is one dietary trace element that potentially could produce such symptoms. We report both the summary statistics for elements in willow and soils and the results of an unbalanced, one-way, hierarchical analysis of variance (ANOVA) (general linear model, GLM), which was constructed to measure the geochemical variability in willow (and soil) at various distance scales across the Paleozoic geologic unit high in bioavailable Cd. All of the geochemical data are presented in the Appendices. The two locations are separated by approximately 80 kilometers (km); sites within a location are approximately 0.5 kilometers apart. Duplicate soil samples collected within a site were separated by 0.05 km or slightly less. Results of the GLM are element specific and range from having very little regional variability to having most of their variance at the top (greater than 80 km) level. For willow, a significant proportion of the total variance occurred at the 'between locations' level for ash yield, barium (Ba), Cd, calcium (Ca), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn). For soils, concentrations of elements in all three soil horizons were similar in that most of the variability in the geochemical data occurred at the 'between locations' and the 'among sites at a location' GLM levels. Most of the variation in concentrations of Cd in soils occurred among sites (separated by 0.5 km) at both locations across all soil horizons and not between the two locations. Cd distribution across the landscape may be due to variation in soil mineralogy, especially the amount of graphite in soil, which has been associated with Cd. Although samples were collected on the same geologic unit, the geochemistry of soils was demonstrated to be uniform with depth but highly variable between locations separated by 80 km. This exploratory study establishes the presence of elevated levels of Cd in willow growing over Paleozoic bedrock in the Seward Peninsula. Further work is needed to definitively link these high Cd levels in willow browse to the health of moose.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities for streams in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, determined the magnitude of flood flows at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) at streamgages in Massachusetts and from these data developed equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations in the State. Flood magnitudes were determined for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEPs at 220 streamgages, 125 of which are in Massachusetts and 95 are in the adjacent States of Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. AEP flood flows were computed for streamgages using the expected moments algorithm weighted with a recently computed regional skewness coefficient for New England. Regional regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitude of floods for selected AEP flows at ungaged sites from 199 selected streamgages and for 60 potential explanatory basin characteristics. AEP flows for 21 of the 125 streamgages in Massachusetts were not used in the final regional regression analysis, primarily because of regulation or redundancy. The final regression equations used generalized least squares methods to account for streamgage record length and correlation. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, and basin storage explained 86 to 93 percent of the variance in flood magnitude from the 50- to 0.2-percent AEPs, respectively. The estimates of AEP flows at streamgages can be improved by using a weighted estimate that is based on the magnitude of the flood and associated uncertainty from the at-site analysis and the regional regression equations. Weighting procedures for estimating AEP flows at an ungaged site on a gaged stream also are provided that improve estimates of flood flows at the ungaged site when hydrologic characteristics do not abruptly change. Urbanization expressed as the percentage of imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regional regression; however, it was not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. The effect of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other basin characteristics. Another complicating factor is the assumption of stationarity, that is, the assumption that annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. The results of the analysis show that stationarity does not prevail at all of the streamgages. About 27 percent of streamgages in Massachusetts and about 42 percent of streamgages in adjacent States with 20 or more years of systematic record used in the study show a significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level. The remaining streamgages had both positive and negative trends, but the trends were not statistically significant. Trends were shown to vary over time. In particular, during the past decade (2004–2013), peak flows were persistently above normal, which may give the impression of positive trends. Only continued monitoring will provide the information needed to determine whether recent increases in annual peak flows are a normal oscillation or a true trend. The analysis used 37 years of additional data obtained since the last comprehensive study of flood flows in Massachusetts. In addition, new methods for computing flood flows at streamgages and regionalization improved estimates of flood magnitudes at gaged and ungaged locations and better defined the uncertainty of the estimates of AEP floods.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2010

On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

Most models of lower crust/mantle viscosity inferred from postearthquake relaxation assume one or two uniform-viscosity layers. A few existing models possess apparently significant radially variable viscosity structure in the shallow mantle (e.g., the upper 200 km), but the resolution of such variations is not clear. We use a geophysical inverse procedure to address the resolving power of inferred shallow mantle viscosity structure using postearthquake relaxation data. We apply this methodology to 9 years of GPS-constrained crustal motions after the 16 October 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. After application of a differencing method to isolate the postearthquake signal from the “background” crustal velocity field, we find that surface velocities diminish from ∼20 mm/yr in the first few months to ≲2 mm/yr after 2 years. Viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle, with a time-dependent effective viscosity prescribed by a Burgers body, provides a good explanation for the postseismic crustal deformation, capturing both the spatial and temporal pattern. In the context of the Burgers body model (which involves a transient viscosity and steady state viscosity), a resolution analysis based on the singular value decomposition reveals that at most, two constraints on depth-dependent steady state mantle viscosity are provided by the present data set. Uppermost mantle viscosity (depth ≲ 60 km) is moderately resolved, but deeper viscosity structure is poorly resolved. The simplest model that explains the data better than that of uniform steady state mantle viscosity involves a linear gradient in logarithmic viscosity with depth, with a small increase from the Moho to 220 km depth. However, the viscosity increase is not statistically significant. This suggests that the depth-dependent steady state viscosity is not resolvably different from uniformity in the uppermost mantle.

California↗

USGS2010

Hydraulic modeling of mussel habitat at a bridge-replacement site, Allegheny River, Pennsylvania, USA

The Allegheny River in Pennsylvania supports a large and diverse freshwater-mussel community, including two federally listed endangered species, Pleurobema clava (Clubshell) and Epioblasma torulosa rangiana (Northern Riffleshell). It is recognized that river hydraulics and morphology play important roles in mussel distribution. To assess the hydraulic influences of bridge replacement on mussel habitat, metrics such as depth, velocity, and their derivatives (shear stress, Froude number) were collected or computed. The objectives of the project were to evaluate mussel and hydraulic data at a reference site and to compare those findings to a bridge-replacement site. The findings were used to support a statistical analysis, which establishes correlations between mussel count and hydraulics, and a numerical model to forecast habitat based on the statistics. ArcGIS was selected to manage the data and generate a grid to compute area statistics for 3319, 4.9-m × 4.9-m cells (cell) for total mussel count, depth, velocity, shear stress, and Froude number. The Wilcoxon Rank Sum test indicated no statistical significance between the total mussel count and the hydraulic variables; however, trellis graphs were used to account for the spatial variability in the data set. For the flow conditions measured, the total mussel count per cell is greatest at sections where (1) velocities range from 0.061 to 0.21 m/s, (2) shear stresses range from 0.48 to 3.8 dyne/cm 2 , and (3) Froude numbers range from 0.006 to 0.04. Based on the statistical targets established, the hydraulic model results suggest that an additional 2428 m 2 or a 30-percent increase in suitable mussel habitat could be generated at the replacement-bridge site when compared to the baseline condition associated with the existing bridge at that same location. The study did not address the influences of substrate, acid mine drainage, sediment loads from tributaries, and surface-water/ground-water exchange on mussel habitat. Future studies could include methods for quantifying (1) channel–substrate composition and distribution using tools such as hydroacoustic echosounders specifically designed and calibrated to identify bed composition and mussel populations, (2) surface-water and ground-water interactions, and (3) a high-streamflow event.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2008

Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market.

California↗

USGS2011

Land cover change, biogeochemical modelling of carbon stocks, and climate change in West Africa

The carbon in ecosystems exists in dynamic soil and vegetation pools which vary in amounts and cycle with the global atmosphere at varying rates. These stocks and fluxes play important roles in global carbon regulation and in the maintenance of goods and services. Changes in land cover or ecosystems result in increased or decreased fluxes to the atmosphere and play a major role in climate regulation. Carbon in soil is closely coupled to soil nitrogen and the continued mining of soil for crops or fuel without replenishment of nutrients results in decreased productivity and impacts food security. The assessment of these processes across large areas, although difficult, is aided by the integration of simulation modelling (biogeochemical and ecosystem) and remote sensing. We acquired satellite imagery for four periods from the 1960s to 2000s, trained environmental scientists from 14 countries on image analysis and interpretation, and now report systematic analyses of land cover changes in select countries of West Africa and quantify potential impacts of climate change and management at specific sites. Statistical changes and maps of land cover are documented for most countries. Senegal, for example, illustrates a 57 percent loss in dense forests between 1975 and 2000 with an even greater loss rate in the preceding 10 years. Bare soil increased 16.6 percent, often related to unproductive “badland” formation. Settlements increased 45.6 percent, and reforestation replaced bare sandy areas for sand dune stabilization. In some countries (Senegal and Ghana), the impact of these conversions and changes in land management and future projections has been incorporated into biogeochemical models to quantify carbon changes and project future carbon and crop scenarios. We present current assessments of carbon fluxes and the availability of data for these West African countries.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Arizona hedgehog cactus (Echinocereus triglochidiatus var. arizonicus)—A systematic data assessment in support of recovery

The Arizona hedgehog cactus ( Echinocereus triglochidiatus var . arizonicus ) is endemic to central Arizona in Gila and Pinal Counties, and has been federally listed as endangered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) since 1979. Mining, mineral exploration, and highway development have resulted in habitat degradation and loss of individual plants. Therefore, decreases in the population of the cactus are expected to continue. In response to a request from FWS to compile, evaluate, and synthesize data for the cactus, we identified and evaluated existing survey and monitoring data for the cactus and conducted a demographic analysis with suitable data. Systematic surveys for the Arizona hedgehog cactus did not begin until the late 1970s. Early surveys generally were anecdotal descriptions of cactus populations and precisely georeferenced records of individual cactus occurrence did not occur until global positioning systems were widely used. Much of the georeferenced data have been collected by consultants for mining operations, the Arizona Department of Transportation, the U.S. Forest Service, and independent surveyors. Occurrence records have been compiled by the Arizona Game and Fish Department Heritage Data Management System, but submission of these data may be incomplete, and the attributes reported have varied among the contributing entities. The compilation and management of survey data is essential for field-based evidence of the size, distribution, and range extent of the cactus. In support of consistency in future survey data collection, this report makes several suggestions for future surveys. Monitoring for the Arizona hedgehog cactus, defined as repeat observations of the status of cactus individuals, has been done by consulting companies for three mines. Demographic monitoring further involves marking individual cacti in consistently defined plots and recording the fate of each cacti through time, including birth, growth, reproduction, and death. We were able to use demographic monitoring data provided by two consulting companies to calculate survival and population growth rates, using several statistical approaches. Resulting models indicate that larger cacti, as measured by their number of stems, have greater survival rates. Larger individuals also had higher probability of producing more flowers. Small cacti had the lowest survivorship, with potentially only 15–20 percent reaching large size. Most populations monitored by the two companies were stable to increasing. However, there were differences in the growth rates among plots and some plots had negative population growth rates. The demographic monitoring data we used represented relatively dense populations of undisturbed cacti. Hence, overall positive population growth rates were not influenced by any large-scale disturbances. Previous analyses with cacti and other species suggest that more than 10 years of data are necessary to accurately forecast long-term population trajectories. As the monitoring intervals we evaluated were shorter, they represent short-term dynamics only. Several suggestions are made in the report to improve collection of monitoring data to support evidence-based estimates of demographic characteristics of the Arizona hedgehog cactus.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Water resources in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, west-central Oklahoma, with an analysis of data gaps through 2015

This report provides an overview of existing hydrologic information describing the quality, quantity, and extent of the major surface-water and groundwater resources in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, west-central Oklahoma. Hydrologic information is provided for five major river systems (Cimarron River, North Canadian River, Canadian River, Washita River, and North Fork Red River), two reservoirs (Foss Reservoir and Canton Lake), and eight aquifers consisting of the alluvial aquifers associated with each of the five major river systems and three major bedrock aquifers (Ogallala aquifer, Elk City aquifer, and Rush Springs aquifer). Types of information provided about rivers and reservoirs for the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area include diversion sites and amounts of water allocated and diverted for permitted uses in 2015; treated wastewater discharge sites and amounts discharged in 2015; and characteristics describing water-quality field properties, major ions, nutrients, and selected trace elements. Major ions, nutrients, and selected trace elements are compared to secondary maximum contaminant levels and maximum contaminant levels for finished drinking water. Additionally, statistics are provided describing daily, monthly, and annual streamflow characteristics at 12 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Streamflow statistics include the magnitudes and frequencies of floods, base-flow characteristics, and long-term streamflow trends. Types of information provided about the aquifers include amounts of water allocated and pumped for permitted uses in 2015; characteristics of groundwater describing water-quality field properties, major ions, nitrate (measured as nitrogen), and selected trace elements with comparisons to secondary maximum contaminant levels and maximum contaminant levels for finished drinking water; groundwater levels and long-term changes in water levels; and ranges of hydraulic conductivity, aquifer recharge, specific yield, transmissivity, and well yields from reports and groundwater-flow models. Surface water is used primarily for irrigation and mining and other nonconsumptive uses in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, except from the Washita and North Fork Red Rivers, where water is treated for use as a public-water supply. Large concentrations of dissolved solids are the primary limiting factor affecting the use of surface water. Median concentrations of dissolved solids in surface water range from less than 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in samples from the North Canadian River to greater than 9,000 mg/L in samples from the Cimarron River. Large dissolved solids concentrations are correlated with hard water. Median hardness as calcium carbonate concentrations in surface water ranges from 427 mg/L in samples from Canton Lake to 1,000 mg/L in samples from the Washita River. In 2015, groundwater was used at more than twice the rate of surface water in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area. Although the alluvial aquifers are considered reliably good sources of water in the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribal jurisdictional area, concentrations of nitrate (measured as nitrogen) exceed the maximum contaminant level of 10 mg/L established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for finished drinking water in parts of all of the alluvial aquifers. Water from the three major bedrock aquifers is used for irrigation, mining, public-water supply, and other uses; however, large concentrations of dissolved solids, nitrate (measured as nitrogen), and naturally occurring trace elements such as arsenic and uranium may limit the use of groundwater as a source of public-water supply in some areas. As of 2015, the depletion of groundwater from the major aquifers in west-central Oklahoma is a minor concern to the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. Groundwater levels and other hydrologic information show that recharge rates exceed the rates of water pumped from aquifers, except in areas that may be affected locally by groundwater depletions.

Oklahoma↗

USGS1969

The determination of the acoustic parameters of volcanic rocks from compressional velocity measurements

A statistical analysis was made of the relationship of various acoustic parameters of volcanic rocks to compressional wave velocities for data obtained in a volcanic region in Nevada. Some additional samples, chiefly granitic rocks, were also included in the study to extend the range of parameters and the variety of siliceous rock types sampled. Laboratory acoustic measurements obtained on 62 dry core samples were grouped with similar measurements obtained from geophysical logging devices at several depth intervals in a hole from which 15 of the core samples had been obtained. The effects of lithostatic and hydrostatic load on changing the rock acoustic parameters measured in the hole were noticeable when compared with the laboratory measurements on the same core. The results of the analyses determined by grouping all of the data, however, indicate that dynamic Young's, shear and bulk modulus, shear velocity, shear and compressional characteristic impedance, as well as amplitude and energy reflection coefficients may be reliably estimated on the basis of the compressional wave velocities of the rocks investigated. Less precise estimates can be made of density based on the rock compressional velocity. The possible extension of these relationships to include many siliceous rocks is suggested.

International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining↗

USGS2020

Good practices for species distribution modeling of deep-sea corals and sponges for resource management: Data collection, analysis, validation, and communication

Resource managers in the United States and worldwide are tasked with identifying and mitigating trade-offs between human activities in the deep sea (e.g., fishing, energy development, and mining) and their impacts on habitat-forming invertebrates, including deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS). Related management decisions require information about where DSCS occur and in what densities. Species distribution modeling (SDM) provides a cost-effective means of identifying potential DSCS habitat over large areas to inform these management decisions and data collection. Here we describe good practices for DSCS SDM, especially in the context of data collection and management applications. Managers typically need information regarding DSCS encounter probabilities, densities, and sizes, defined at sub-regional to basin-wide scales and validated using subsequent, targeted data collections. To realistically achieve these goals, we suggest analysts: 1) integrate available data sources in SDMs including fine-scale visual sampling and broad-scale resource surveys (e.g., fisheries trawl surveys); and 2) include environmental predictor variables representing multiple spatial scales, model residual spatial autocorrelation, and quantify prediction uncertainty. When possible, models fitted to presence-absence and density data are preferred over models fitted only to presence data, which are difficult to validate and can confound estimated probability of occurrence or density with sampling effort. Ensembles of models can provide robust predictions, while multi-species models leverage information across taxa and facilitate community inference. To facilitate the use of models by managers, predictions should be expressed in units that are widely understood and validated at an appropriate spatial scale using a sampling design that provides strong statistical inference. We present three case studies for the Pacific Ocean that illustrate good practices with respect to data collection, modeling, and validation; these case studies demonstrate it is possible to implement our good practices in real-world settings.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2001

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1999

The collection of nine papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) investigative reports in Alaska under the broad umbrella of the geologic sciences. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from various parts of the State (fig. 1), serving to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics: Hazards, Geologic Framework, Environment and Climate, and Resources. This organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS geologic programs currently active in Alaska. The two Hazards studies discuss volcano-related topics in the seismically active southcentral Alaska region. The first paper revisits the eruptive events of Redoubt Volcano that occurred more than a decade ago and the subsequent development of the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). This treatise documents the historic impact of this eruption and briefly summarizes the state of our knowledge of the other Cook Inlet, Alaska Peninsula, and Aleutian Island volcanoes. Finally, it discusses the recent role that AVO has had in seismic station installation and hazard assessment at volcanically active sites throughout the world. The second paper discusses the eruptive history of Snowy Mountain in the upper Alaska Peninsula. Because subsets of its 25-30 lava flows erupted as packages in short episodes, calculation of the volcano's lifetime average volumetric eruption rate is problematic. A portion of the cone was hydrothermally weakened and collapsed in the late Holocene producing a 22-km2 debris avalanche. Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future earth science investigations. The first paper compares and contrasts the Insular-Intermontane suture zone (IISZ) of southeast Alaska with the Adria-Europe suture zone (AESZ) of Switzerland and Hungary. The study develops the hypothesis that the zones have distinct differences as well as similarities and neither is a simple lithotectonic terrane boundary. The second paper discusses the relation among volcanic, glacial, and tectonic activity in the Cold Bay and False Pass 1 :250,000-scale quadrangles on the Alaska Peninsula. During Pleistocene time, continental-shelf glaciations and two massive volcanic centers were the dominant controls over landscape development. The third paper gives detailed geologic information for Paleozoic rocks within the Taylor Mountains D-1 quadrangle portion of the Holitna Lowland of southwestern Alaska. Because of the excellent preservation of megafossils, these Silurian and Ordovician strata lend themselves to detailed statigraphic investigations. Further, low thermal alteration indices of this area have made them a potential target of petroleum exploration. The final report in this section discusses the development of a new spectral enhancement approach for interpreting Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images. This technique enhances the use of remote sensing data in identifying geologic units in areas that have been poorly investigated. This study used this technique to better define the distribution of a JMtu (mafic, ultramafic, and sedimentary) unit and a PzZrqs (pelitic and quartzitic schist) unit. Environment and climate studies are the emphasis of two papers. One presents the first radiocarbon-dated postglacial vegetation history of the Kenai Mountains of southcentral Alaska. This reconstruction is the result of the analysis of pollen assemblages and peat from sediments collected in Tern Lake and presents a minimum age for deglaciation of these interior valleys at 9,31 0±200 yr B .P. Current vegetation, however, developed within the past ca. 2,500 years. A second study discusses the cycling of arsenic and cadmium in sub-arctic boreal forest ecosystems typical of interior Alaska and defines the importance of various natural (geogenic) sources. The transport and uptake into vegetation of these elements from soils developed from loess as well as soils developed from the major rock units is presented. The bioaccumulation of cadmium in willow (Salix sp.) and its potential consequence to the health of browsing animals is discussed. Papers related to resource issues comprise the topic of the final report. This paper presents a brief statistical summary of the geochemistry of rock samples collected in the east-central portion of the Eagle 1 :250,000-scale quadrangle. This study helps define the rock unit source of both resource- and environmental-based chemical elements of interest in the Fortymile mining district. Two bibliographies at the end of the volume list reports covering Alaska earth science topics in USGS publications during 1999 and reports about Alaska by USGS authors in non-USGS publications during the same period.

Alaska↗