The ecological and hydrological significance of ephemeral and intermittent streams in the arid and semi-arid American Southwest
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A fundamental goal of wetland restoration is to reinstate pre-disturbance hydrological conditions to degraded landscapes, facilitating recolonization by native species and the production of resilient, functional ecosystems. To evaluate restoration success, baseline conditions need to be determined and a reference target needs to be established that will serve as an ecological blueprint in the restoration process. During the summer wet seasons of 2010 and 2011, we used automated recording units to monitor a community of calling anuran amphibians in the Picayune Strand State Forest of Southwest Florida, USA. This area is undergoing hydrological restoration as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. We compared occurrence of anurans at sites in the restoration area, to nearby locations in relatively undisturbed habitat (reference sites). We assessed the utility of the latter as restoration targets, using a hierarchical model of community species occupancy to estimate the probability of occurrence of anurans in restoration and reference locations. We detected 14 species, 13 of which were significantly more likely to occur in reference areas. All 14 species were estimated by our model to occur at these sites but, across both years, only 8–13 species were estimated to occur at restoration sites. The composition and structure of these habitats within and adjacent to the Picayune Strand State Forest indicate that they are suitable targets for habitat restoration, as measured by amphibian occurrence and species richness. These areas are important sources for recolonization of anuran amphibians as the hydrologically degraded Picayune Strand undergoes restoration to mitigate the effects of overdrainage and habitat loss.
A series of ground-based observations were made between September 2010 and August 2011 near Twelvemile Lake, 19 kilometers southwest of Fort Yukon, Alaska, for use in ongoing hydrological analyses of watersheds in this region of discontinuous permafrost. Measurements include depth to ground ice, depth to water table, soil texture, soil moisture, soil temperature, and water pressure above the permafrost table. In the drained basin of subsiding Twelvemile Lake, we generally find an absence of newly formed permafrost and an undetectable slope of the water table; however, a sloping water table was observed in the low-lying channels extending into and away from the lake watershed. Datasets for these observations are summarized in this report and can be accessed by clicking on the links in each section or from the Downloads folder of the report Web page.
Flooding and high ground-water levels after large or frequent rainstorms have occurred in an area of about 30 square miles along the eastern bank of the Cedar River from Cedar Falls in northwest Black Hawk County to Janesville in southwest Bremer County, Iowa. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Black Hawk County, conducted a hydrologic study of the Cedar River alluvium in the northwest Black Hawk and southwest Bremer Counties, to improve understanding of the ground-water flow system and evaluate the effects of hypothetical variations in recharge and discharge conditions. A steady-state ground-water flow model was constructed for the area using November 2001 hydrologic conditions. The model was discretized into an 83-row by 47-column grid of cells measuring approximately 500 feet by 500 feet. Two model layers, one for the alluvium and one for the underlying bedrock units, were used to represent flow in the area. Precipitation during 2001 was similar to historical normals. Precipitation during 1999, especially during the summer when flooding occurred, was well above the historical normals. Borings in the unconsolidated deposits in the study area confirmed the presence of a bedrock valley dipping to the south in the central part of the study area. Water-level measurements in 2001 indicate that ground-water flow in much of the alluvial aquifer parallels the direction of flow in the Cedar River toward the south rather than following shorter flow paths to the west toward the Cedar River. Under steady-state conditions and 2001 pumpage, primary sources of inflow to the ground-water flow system are the Cedar River (65.5 percent), recharge through infiltration of precipitation and upland runoff (31.4 percent), and subsurface flow across the lateral boundaries (3.1 percent). The primary components of outflow from the ground-water flow system are intermittent streams (56.0 percent) and the Cedar River (43.7 percent). Two hypothetical scenarios were used to assess the potential effects of higher river levels and increased recharge compared to the steadystate conditions. For one scenario, river levels were set to bankfull conditions, and a recharge of 1.2 times the steady-state rate was applied. This simulation was used to evaluate the effects of wet conditions. This scenario led to increased water levels, in general, and large areas of shallow (0 to 10 feet) depths to water along the eastern part of the model area near Highway 218. For the second scenario, conditions were the same as for the first scenario, but streambed conductance of intermittent streams modeled as drains was increased to 10 times the steady-state value to simulate increased flow of water from the shallow groundwater flow system. The area with depth to water of 0 to 10 feet along the eastern part of the model area was substantially smaller than that of the first scenario. In general, once high ground-water levels occur, either because of high Cedar River water Abstract levels or above normal local precipitation or both, ground-water in the central part of the study area along Highway 218 flows toward the south rather than following shorter flow paths to the Cedar River. Intermittent streams in the study area discharge substantial amounts of water from the ground-water flow system.
Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.
Increasing demand on the limited supplies of freshwater in the desert Southwest, as well as other parts of the United States, has increased the level of interest in saline-water resources. Saline ground water has long been recognized as a potentially important contributor to water supply in the Southwest, as demonstrated by the number of hydrologic, geologic, and engineering studies on the distribution of saline water and the feasibility of desalination. Potential future study needs include investigating and documenting the three-dimensional distribution of salinity and chemical composition of saline-water resources and the hydraulic properties of aquifers containing these saline-water resources, assessing the chemical suitability of saline water for use with existing and anticipated desalination technologies, simulating the effect of withdrawal of saline ground water on water levels and water composition in saline and adjoining or overlying freshwater aquifers, and determining the suitability of target geologic formations for injection of desalination-generated waste.
In Alaska’s watersheds, climate change is altering the nature and role of the snowpack, defined as snow accumulation that melts in spring. Generally, the amount of precipitation that falls as snow and the length of the snow-cover season both decrease as temperatures exceed 0°C (32°F) more frequently. The impacts of climate change on snowpack vary among watersheds. In southern, coastal parts of Alaska, large decreases in spring snowpack are expected by the mid-21st century, even with more winter precipitation because temperatures warm to above freezing, causing a shift from snow to rain or more melt during the winter. In contrast, modest early spring increases in the snowpack are expected in watersheds where temperatures remain below freezing. In these locations temperatures warm but remain cold enough for the extra winter precipitation to fall as snow, even though the snowpack will begin accumulating later in the fall and melt earlier in the spring as temperatures rise during those warmer seasons. Because potential impacts on hydrological and ecological systems will vary among watersheds, it is difficult to generalize the resulting ecological impacts at broad spatial scales. Here, we explore likely impacts on hydrology in critical anadromous fish habitat in southwest Alaska.
Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability of detection of individual manatees within a group also differed among surveys, ranging from a low of 0.27 on 11 January to a high of 0.73 on 8 August. During winter surveys, abundance was always higher inland at Port of the Islands (POI), a manatee warm-water aggregation site, than in the other habitat types. During warm-season surveys, highest abundances were estimated in offshore habitat where manatees forage on seagrass. Manatees continued to use POI in summer, but in lower numbers than in winter, possibly to drink freshwater. Abundance in other inland systems and inshore bays was low compared to POI in winter and summer, possibly because of low availability of freshwater. During cold weather, maps of patch abundance of paired surveys showed daily changes in manatee distribution associated with rapid changes in air and water temperature as manatees sought warm water with falling temperatures and seagrass areas with increasing temperatures. Within a habitat type, some patches had higher manatee abundance suggesting differences in quality, possibly due to freshwater flow. If hydrological restoration alters the location of quality habitat, postrestoration comparisons using our methods will document how manatees adjust to new resources, providing managers with information on spatial needs for further monitoring or management. Total abundance for the entire area was similar among survey dates. Credible intervals however were large on a few surveys, and may limit our ability to statistically detect trends in total abundance. Additional modeling of abundance with time- and patch-specific covariates of salinity, water temperature, and seagrass abundance will directly link manatee abundance with physical and biological changes due to restoration and should decrease uncertainty of estimates
A hydrologic model of the Silver Creek Basin in southwest Illinois, and a hydraulic model of a selected reach of Silver Creek and local tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, were developed to assess the effects of temporal land-use development in the Silver Creek Basin, the potential effects of projected changes based on future precipitation, and the effects of added detention storage in selected tributaries near Scott Air Force Base. The hydrologic model consists of a total of 52 scenarios—24 scenarios for an assessment of basin-wide changes in hydrology, and 28 scenarios for the hydraulic analysis of a focus area of Silver Creek and tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base. Scenarios were run for precipitation events of 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals (50-percent through 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability) and 24-hour durations. The effects of detention structures added to Silver Creek tributaries throughout Scott Air Force Base were greater on water-level profiles (about 1 to 3 feet) than the effects of projected (2050) changes in precipitation (about 1 foot or less) in these basins. The results indicated that despite the increases in water-surface elevations resulting from projected increases in precipitation, the detention structures could provide a net reduction in water-surface elevations in the flood-prone western tributaries on the base. The effects of detention structures and projected precipitation also were assessed using the mapped extent of inundation for the simulated probabilistic precipitation scenarios. As an example, limited inundation of a residential area along Ash Creek was evident in the 5-year recurrence interval event for the scenarios without detention storage, whereas the first indications of flooding in the residential area from the scenario with detention storage were in the 50-year recurrence interval event. Changes in hydrologic conditions followed a spatial pattern similar to that of the changes in land-cover development, with the greatest changes in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most pronounced in subbasins on and surrounding Scott Air Force Base. There was up to an estimated 54.6-percent increase in peak streamflows in subbasins on or near Scott Air Force Base from historical (1992) to current (2019) conditions, but changes in peak streamflows of as much as 144 percent are anticipated under the planned (to about 2050) land cover plus projected (2050) precipitation. The changes in the timing of peak streamflows were towards earlier peaks, with cumulative changes between historical and projected conditions approaching 0.75 hour (45 minutes) for a 2-year recurrence interval event. Results of the percentage change in cumulative event volume were similar to those of percentage change in peak streamflows in terms of magnitude of change and temporal and spatial distribution of changes. The greatest magnitude of percentage change in the assessed hydrologic properties was associated with the 2-year recurrence interval event, and the magnitude of the percentage change decreased with increasing probabilistic event recurrence interval. Subbasins with a substantial change in runoff yield between historical and current conditions were primarily in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most were within or adjacent to Scott Air Force Base. The magnitude of runoff yield changes increased with recurrence interval, and maximum changes were associated with subbasins on base and with the changes between the historical and current conditions.
A series of workshops was conducted in September, 1982, by staff of the Virginia Office, Mid-Atlantic District of the U.S.-Geological Survey for the benefit of coal operators, consultants, and resource managers in the coal-producing area of southwest Virginia. The purpose of the workshop series was to present hydrologic information and data by the U.S. Geological Survey collected during four years of study of the. coal hydrology of Virginia. The workshop series was held one day a week for three weeks at two locations within southwest Virginia in order to reduce travel time and overnight travel costs for participants. Results of an independently conducted questionnaire indicate the series was a success. The report summarizes the workshop preparation, organization, and presentation, and gives general conclusions and suggestions for those interested in conducting workshops.
By 1990, sanitary sewers in Nassau County Sewage Disposal Districts 2 and 3 and Suffolk County Southwest Sewer District will discharge to the ocean 140 cu ft of water/sec that would otherwise be returned to the groundwater system through septic tanks and similar systems. To evaluate the effects of this loss on groundwater levels and streamflow, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model that couples a fine-scale subregional model to a regional model of larger scale. The regional model generates flux boundary conditions for the subregional model, and the subregional model provides detail in the area of concern. Results indicate that the water table will decline by as much as 8 ft along the Suffolk-Nassau county line, with effects decreasing eastward. Base flow is predicted to decrease by as much as 73% in a stream along the county line, but this effect will decrease to zero just east of the sewered area. This report is one of a series describing the predicted hydrologic effects of sewers in southern Nassau and southwest Suffolk Counties. (USGS)
Two major periods of uranium mineralization are indicated by U-Pb isotope dating of uranium ores from collapse breeeia pipes in the Grand Canyon region, northern Arizona. The Hack 2 and 3, Kanab North, and EZ 1 and 2 orebodies apparently formed in the interval of 200 + or - 20 Ma, similar to ages inferred for strata-bound, Late Triassic-hosted uranium deposits in southern Utah and northern Arizona. Samples from the Grand Canyon and Pine Nut pipes, however, indicate a distinctly older age of about 260 Ma. The Pigeon, Orphan, and Arizona-1 deposits were apparently mineralized before 220, 186, and 169 Ma, respectively, but no useful upper age limits can be inferred. There is no evidence in the U-Pb isotope data for uranium mineralization related to Laramide tectonism, mid-Tertiary volcanism, or late Tertiary uplift. The clustering in ages for a variety of uranium deposits at about (or slightly younger than) the age of the lower part of the Chinle Formation (Late Triassic) suggests that uranium in these deposits may have been derived by leaching from volcanic ash in the Chinle and mobilized by ground-water movement resulting from changing hydrologic gradients caused by regional uplift to the southwest. Pb isotope ratios of galenas in mineralized pipes are more radiogenic than those of sulfides from either uranium-poor pipes or occurrences away from pipes. This isotopic contrast suggests that fluids which passed through the pipes had interacted with the Proterozoic basement, possibly through the vertical fractures which influenced the location and evolution of the pipes themselves. Regardless of the source of the common Pb in the uranium-bearing pipes, the generally distinct Pb isotope composition of their galenas (compared to those of barren pipes and nonpipe sulfides in the region) may provide a useful exploration guide.
The effects of a warming climate will alter the hydrological cycles of arid southwestern U.S. reservoirs which primarily support agricultural needs, provide flood control, and generate hydroelectric power while secondarily supporting fish communities and sport fishing opportunities. The success of littoral spawning fishes depends on the timing and variability of water levels. The onset of drought between 2017 and 2018 provided an opportunity to evaluate the timing of hatch dates and relative abundance of young-of-year Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides across two water years of varying water temperatures and water levels in a southwestern U.S. reservoir. A retrospective analysis of otoliths in young-of-year Largemouth Bass revealed similar hatch dates in 2017 (14 April–29 May) and 2018 (13 April–28 May) despite differences in water temperature and water level rate of change. Median water temperature during hatch dates was greater in 2017 (median 19.0°C, range 14.3–24.4°C) than 2018 (17.6°C, range 13.5–21.7°C). Water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2017 was positive (+3.1 to +13.1 cm/d), which reflected reservoir filling. In contrast, water level rate of change during hatch dates in 2018 was negative (−8.5 to −0.6 cm/d), which reflected reservoir receding. Relative abundance of young-of-year fish was greater in 2017 (21.7 fish/h) when the reservoir was filling compared with relative abundance in 2018 (6.8 fish/h) when the reservoir was receding. The median growth rate was greater in 2017 (1.02 mm/d) when the reservoir was filling than in 2018 (0.82 mm/d) when the reservoir was receding. Despite differences in water temperature and contrasting reservoir levels between the two water years, the Largemouth Bass population in a southwest U.S. reservoir exhibited similar hatch dates reported for the species in southeastern and northeastern U.S. reservoirs. While water demand in the 21st century may exceed availability, the opportunity exists to collaborate with water managers to benefit Largemouth Bass populations in southwestern reservoirs.
The Edwards aquifer extends in a narrow belt from Bell County in the northeast to Kinney County in the southwest (index map) and provides water for at least nine counties in south-central Texas. Hydrologic boundaries divide the Edwards aquifer in the Austin area for which Barton Springs is the major discharge point. This part of the Edwards aquifer provides the municipal, industrial, domestic, and agricultural water supplies for about 30,000 people in the Austin area (southern Travis and northern Hays counties). Discharge from Barton Springs sustains streamflow at the mouth of Barton Creek and flows into Town Lake. Much of the land use within the outcrop area of the Edwards aquifer near Austin is rapidly changing from natural woodland and grassland to commercial and residential developments. Because urban development can result in a substantial degradation of the quality of water that recharges the aquifer, the extent of the recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer was delineated to provide information to the City of Austin for their use in formulating a plan for protecting and managing groundwater quality. The purpose of this report is to define and delineate the areal extent of the recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer in southern Travis and northern Hays Counties. The areal boundary of the recharge zone was determined by: (1) geologic mapping of the aquifer area; (2) interpretation of aerial photographs; (3) field verification of existing geologic maps; and (4) streamflow-loss studies.
Hydrologic implications of the impoundment of Lake Seminole in southwest Georgia and its effect on components of the surface- and ground-water flow systems of the lower Apalachicola?Chattahoochee?Flint (ACF) River Basin were investigated using a ground-water model. Comparison of simulation results of postimpoundment drought conditions (October 1986) with results of hypothetical preimpoundment conditions (a similar drought prior to 1955) provides a qualitative measure of the changes in hydraulic head and ground-water flow to and from streams and Lake Seminole, and across State lines caused by the impoundment. Based on the simulation results, the impoundment of Lake Seminole changed ground-water flow directions within about 20?30 miles of the lake, reducing the amount of ground water flowing from Florida to Georgia southeast of the lake. Ground-water storage was increased by the impoundment, as indicated by a simulated increase of as much as 26 feet in the water level in the Upper Floridan aquifer. The impoundment of Lake Seminole caused changes to simulated components of the ground-water budget, including reduced discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer to streams (315 million gallons per day); reduced recharge from or increased discharge to regional ground-water flow at external model boundaries (totaling 183 million gallons per day); and reduced recharge from or increased discharge to the undifferentiated overburden (totaling 129 million gallons per day).
Lake Rousseau, about 4 miles southwest of Inglis, Florida, was formed in 1909 by impoundment of the Withlacooche River by Inglis Dam, west of Dunnellon, Florida. The lake was to have been part of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal; a lock and channel associated with the presently inactive project were completed in 1969. Lake Rousseau is about 11 miles long, covers about 4,000 acres, and contains about 34,000 acre-feet of water at the normal pool elevation of 27.5 feet above mean sea level. Inflow to the lake is relatively constant and responds slowly to rainfall. The estimated 100-year peak inflow, 10,400 cubic feet per second, is only 19 percent higher than the 100-year high monthly inflow. Water in Lake Rousseau is a calcium-bicarbonate type and is hard. Mean total phosphorus and organic nitrogen concentrations are considerably lower in Lake Rousseau than in north-central Florida lakes which have been considered to be eutrophic by other investigators, however, the lake supports of prolific aquatic plant community. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations near the water surface are occasionally less than 3 mg/liter. (Woodard-USGS)
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, initiated a study to quantify the inflows and outflows in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools of the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin in Citrus County, Florida. This study assesses hydrologic changes in pool stages, groundwater levels, spring flows, and streamflows caused by the diversion of streamflow from the Withlacoochee River to the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin through water-control structures. A surface-water/groundwater flow model was developed using hydraulic parameters for lakes, streams, the unsaturated zone, and the underlying surficial and Upper Floridan aquifers estimated using an inverse modeling calibration technique. After calibration, the model was used to assess the relation between inflows and outflows in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin and changes in pool stages. Simulation results using the calibrated surface-water/groundwater flow model showed that leakage rates from the pools to the Upper Floridan aquifer were largest at the deep lake cells and that these leakage rates to the Upper Floridan aquifer were the highest in the model area. Downward leakage to the Upper Floridan aquifer occurred beneath most of the extent of the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools. These leakage rates depended on the lakebed leakance and the difference between lake stages and heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Leakage rates were higher for the Floral City pool than for the Inverness pool, and higher for the Inverness pool than for the Hernando pool. Lakebed leakance was higher for the Floral City pool than for the Hernando pool, and higher for the Hernando pool than for the Inverness pool. Simulation results showed that the average recharge rate to the surficial aquifer was 10.3 inches per year for the 2004 to 2012 simulation period. Areas that recharge the surficial aquifer covered about 86 percent of the model area. Simulations identified areas along segments of the Withlacoochee River and within land-surface depressions that receive water from the surficial aquifer. Recharge rates were largest in physiographic regions having a deep water table. Simulated heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer indicated the general flow directions in the active flow model area were from the northeast toward the southwest and then westward toward the coast, and from the southeast toward the northwest and then westward toward the coast, consistent with flow directions inferred from the estimated potentiometric surface map for May 2010. The largest inflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was downward leakage from the overlying hydrogeologic unit. The largest outflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was spring flow. The calibrated surface-water and groundwater flow model was used to simulate hydrologic scenarios that included changes in rainfall rates, projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2025 and 2035, no flow for the 2004–12 period through the eight water-control structures in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin, and the removal of the Inglis Dam and the Inglis Bypass Spillway on Lake Rousseau. Scenario simulation results were compared to annual average calibrated water levels and flows from 2004 to 2012. Simulated declines in the Tsala Apopka Lake pool stages under the 10-percent lower rainfall scenario were about 0.8, 0.3, and 1.3 feet (ft) for the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. Simulated groundwater levels under the same scenario declined up to 5.4 ft in the surficial aquifer and up to 2.9 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 that represented an increase of 36 percent from average 2004 to 2012 pumping rates, the simulated declines in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pool stages were, in downstream order, 0.02, 0.06, and 0.04 ft. The largest drawdown under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 was 2.1 ft in the surficial aquifer and about 1.8 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. A scenario of decreased rainfall by 10 percent caused greater declines in water levels and pool stages than projected increases in groundwater pumping rates. The simulation with no flow through the eight Tsala Apopka Lake water-control structures resulted in simulated declines in average pool stage of 1.8, 1.9, and 0.5 ft in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. The simulated removal of the two water-control structures in Lake Rousseau caused flow to increase at Rainbow Springs by 28 cubic feet per second, an increase of 4.7 percent from the average calibrated flow for 2004 to 2012.
This report provides a November 2010 snapshot of groundwater quality and an analysis of the sources of water to wells at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Appalachian Research Laboratory (NARL) near Wellsboro, Pennsylvania. The laboratory, which conducts fisheries research, currently (2011) withdraws 1,000 gallons per minute of high-quality groundwater from three wells completed in the glacial sand and gravel aquifer beneath the Marsh Creek valley; a fourth well that taps the same aquifer provides the potable supply for the facility. The study was conducted to document the source areas and quality of the water supply for this Department of Interior facility, which is surrounded by the ongoing development of natural gas from the Marcellus Shale. Groundwater samples were collected from the four wells used by the NARL and from two nearby domestic-supply wells. The domestic-supply wells withdraw groundwater from bedrock of the Catskill Formation. Samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace metals, radiochemicals, dissolved gases, and stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in water and carbon in dissolved carbonate to document groundwater quality. Organic constituents (other than hydrocarbon gases) associated with hydraulic fracturing and other human activities were not analyzed as part of this assessment. Results show low concentrations of all constituents. Only radon, which ranged from 980 to 1,310 picocuries per liter, was somewhat elevated. These findings are consistent with the pristine nature of the aquifer in the Marsh Creek valley, which is the reason the laboratory was sited at this location. The sources of water and areas contributing recharge to wells were identified by the use of a previously documented MODFLOW groundwater-flow model for the following conditions: (1) withdrawals of 1,000 to 3,000 gallons per minute from the NARL wells, (2) average or dry hydrologic conditions, and (3) withdrawals of 1,000 gallons per minute from a new well 3,500 feet to the southwest that was drilled to provide water for Marcellus gas-well operations. Results of simulations indicate that during average hydrologic conditions, infiltration from Straight Run, a tributary to Marsh Creek, provides nearly all the water to the NARL wells. During dry conditions, the areas contributing recharge expand such that Asaph Run contributes about half of the water to the NARL wells when withdrawals are 1,000 or 2,000 gallons per minute. The addition of a simulated withdrawal of 1,000 gallons per minute from the nearby new well does not substantially affect the sources of water captured by the NARL wells. These results are subject to some limitations. The water-quality samples represent a snapshot of groundwater chemistry for only one hydrologic condition; the concentrations of some constituents may change temporally. In addition, samples were collected and analyzed for hydrocarbon gases, but not organic constituents associated with hydraulic fracturing; additional sampling for these constituents would provide a more complete water-quality baseline. The sources contributing water to the NARL wells and the new well were simulated by use of a simplified one-layer model of the glacial sand and gravel aquifer for steady-state conditions that in reality are never achieved. Steady-state simulations of dry hydrologic conditions show that it is possible for the NARL wells to capture water from Asaph Run; however, maps of simulated groundwater time-of-travel indicate that a dry period of unusually long duration would be required. A better analysis could be done by recalibrating the groundwater-flow model with a finite-difference grid having multiple layers, cells smaller than the 200-foot by 200-foot cells used in this study, and transient stress periods.