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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2003

User's Manual for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

Water is used in a variety of ways that need to be understood for effective management of water resources. Water-use activities need to be categorized and included in a database management system to understand current water uses and to provide information to water-resource management policy decisionmakers. The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a complex database developed to store water-use information that allows water to be tracked from a point of water-use activity (called a 'Site'), such as withdrawal from a resource (reservoir or aquifer), to a second Site, such as distribution to a user (business or irrigator). NEWUDS conceptual model consists of 10 core entities: system, owner, address, location, site, data source, resource, conveyance, transaction/rate, and alias, with tables available to store user-defined details. Three components--site (with both a From Site and a To Site), a conveyance that connects them, and a transaction/rate associated with the movement of water over a specific time interval form the core of the basic NEWUDS network model. The most important step in correctly translating real-world water-use activities into a storable format in NEWUDS depends on choosing the appropriate sites and linking them correctly in a network to model the flow of water from the initial From Site to the final To Site. Ten water-use networks representing real-world activities are described--three withdrawal networks, three return networks, two user networks, two complex community-system networks. Ten case studies of water use, one for each network, also are included in this manual to illustrate how to compile, store, and retrieve the appropriate data. The sequence of data entry into tables is critical because there are many foreign keys. The recommended core entity sequence is (1) system, (2) owner, (3) address, (4) location, (5) site, (6) data source, (7) resource, (8) conveyance, (9) transaction, and (10) rate; with (11) alias and (12) user-defined detail subject areas populated as needed. After each step in data entry, quality-assurance queries should be run to ensure the data are correctly entered so that it can be retrieved accurately. The point of data storage is retrieval. Several retrieval queries that focus on retrieving only relevant data to specific questions are presented in this manual as examples for the NEWUDS user.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

The precision problem in conservation and restoration

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Examining progress toward achieving the Ten Steps of the Rome Declaration on Responsible Inland Fisheries

Inland capture fisheries provide food for nearly a billion people and are important in the livelihoods of millions of households worldwide. Although there are limitations to evaluating many of the contributions made by inland capture fisheries, there is growing recognition by the international community that these services make critical contributions, most notably to food security and livelihoods in rural populations in those low-income countries with extensive freshwater resources. With the increasing appreciation of the key role of inland fisheries to the health and well-being of human populations globally, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Michigan State University convened the 2015 global conference, Freshwater, fish, and the future – cross-sectoral approaches to sustain livelihoods, food security, and aquatic ecosystems. What emerged from the interactions between inland fisheries scientists, resource managers, policy makers, and community representatives from across the world, was a forward-looking call-to-action culminating with the 2015 Rome Declaration “Ten Steps to Responsible Inland Fisheries” (FAO and MSU 2016). Four years after this landmark conference and Declaration, we seek to advance discussion on the “Ten Steps,” namely, what successful implementation looks like, assess current examples of implementation, suggest potential signals of progress, and provide some specific, indicative examples of progress for each step. While there are promising signs of progress, we conclude that there remains a strong need to galvanize momentum for sustained action to ensure that inland fish and fisheries are accounted for and incorporated into broader water resource management discussions and frameworks.

Fish and Fisheries↗
USGS2018

Toward a social-ecological theory of forest macrosystems for improved ecosystem management

The implications of cumulative land-use decisions and shifting climate on forests, require us to integrate our understanding of ecosystems, markets, policy, and resource management into a social-ecological system. Humans play a central role in macrosystem dynamics, which complicates ecological theories that do not explicitly include human interactions. These dynamics also impact ecological services and related markets, which challenges economic theory. Here, we use two forest macroscale management initiatives to develop a theoretical understanding of how management interacts with ecological functions and services at these scales and how the multiple large-scale management goals work either in consort or conflict with other forest functions and services. We suggest that calling upon theories developed for organismal ecology, ecosystem ecology, and ecological economics adds to our understanding of social-ecological macrosystems. To initiate progress, we propose future research questions to add rigor to macrosystem-scale studies: (1) What are the ecosystem functions that operate at macroscales, their necessary structural components, and how do we observe them? (2) How do systems at one scale respond if altered at another scale? (3) How do we both effectively measure these components and interactions, and communicate that information in a meaningful manner for policy and management across different scales?

Forests↗
USGS1977

Long-term adequacy of metal resources

Although the earth's crust contains vast quantities of metals, extraction technologies and associated costs are inextricably bound to three fundamental geological factors — the amount of metal available in the earth's crust in each range of grades, the mineralogical form and chemical state of the metal, and the spatial distribution of the metal. The energy required to recover a given amount of metal increases substantially as grade declines. Most metal is produced from sulphide or oxide minerals, whereas most metal in the crust may be locked in the structures of the more refractory silicates. Recovery from silicate minerals could require orders of magnitude more energy than that used at present as also could exploitation of small, widely scattered or thin, deeply buried deposits. Although specific information on the fundamental factors is not available, each factor must in turn tend to further restrict exploitation. Independence of average grade and tonnage for many deposit types further reduces the availability of rock as a source of metal. In the long term, effects of these factors will be large increases in price for many metals.

Resources Policy↗
USGS1994

US North Slope gas and Asian LNG markets

Prospects for export of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Alaska's North Slope are assessed. Projected market conditions to 2010 show that new LNG capacity beyond announced expansions will be needed to meet regional demand and that supplies will probably come from outside the region. The estimated delivered costs of likely suppliers show that Alaska North Slope gas will not be competitive. The alternative North Slope gas development strategies of transport and sale to the lower 48 states and use on the North Slope for either enhanced oil recovery or conversion to liquids are examined. The alternative options require delaying development until US gas prices increase, exhaustion of certain North Slope oil fields, or advances occur in gas to liquid fuels conversion technology.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2011

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2020

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2018

Critical minerals: A review of elemental trends in comprehensive criticality studies

Mineral criticality is a subjective concept that has evolved throughout history. An abundance of literature on this topic has been published over the last decade, encompassing a variety of criteria and methodologies. To our knowledge, this work is the first large-scale effort to organize and analyze recent comprehensive criticality studies in order to determine if a consensus exists within the global community as to which elements are critical. Here, we set aside methodological differences and analyze the results of 32 comprehensive nonfuel mineral criticality studies that evaluate at least 10 elements. Of the 56 elements or elemental groups evaluated, the three most commonly identified as critical in these studies are the rare-earth elements (REE), the platinum-group metals (PGM), and indium. Most of the studies also identify tungsten, germanium, cobalt, niobium , tantalum, gallium, and antimonyas critical. These results are consistent with the 11 most recent studies, published post-2014, which also identify bismuth as critical. Furthermore, the same elements identified in the complete dataset, except antimony, were designated as critical when normalized by geographic region. Magnesium was also deemed critical. Elements may be identified consistently as critical for several reasons; similarities in methodologies, which embody evolving perceptions of risk, or changing national and institutional priorities. This work compiles a large number of recent criticality studies in an effort to define a consensus of currently critical materials, essentially defining the modern criticality paradigm, which is valuable when interpreting an individual perspective in more global context.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2019

China’s domestic and foreign influence in the global cobalt supply chain

In addition to increasing interest in the supply risk of minerals produced in China, there is also concern that China’s efforts to mitigate mineral supply risk—through foreign direct investment—may limit mineral availability for other countries in the short-term (due to production capacity constraints). However, little is publicly known about the quantity of global mineral production that is subject to Chinese ownership-influence or how this influence may mitigate China’s import reliance for mineral commodities. In this analysis, we estimate China’s ownership-share of foreign production for cobalt mine and intermediate materials (in the year 2016), as well as the net import reliance of China’s cobalt refinery industry—which is then adjusted to reflect China’s ownership-share of foreign production. First, we find that China’s foreign cobalt ownership is predominantly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the largest source of cobalt mine and intermediate imports for China’s growing cobalt refinery industry. Second, foreign direct investment provided China with ownership-influence over roughly 29% of its cobalt mine and intermediate imports in 2016—which may have reduced the exposure of China’s refinery industry to supply risk from a net import reliance of 97% (on cobalt mine and intermediate materials) to an adjusted net import reliance of 68%. Third, China’s global production share jumps from 2% to 14% (for cobalt mine material) and from 11% to 33% (for cobalt intermediate material) when China’s foreign ownership production share is added to China’s domestic production share. Fourth, over time China’s foreign direct investment appears to have targeted facilities with progressively larger cobalt production capacities. Finally, China’s global production share increases as cobalt material moves downstream (i.e. mine, 14%; intermediate, 33%; refined, 50% in 2016). If a primary motivation of China’s Going Out Strategy is to secure natural resources, then China’s global production share may be reserved for Chinese manufacturers. This analysis may, therefore, indicate that critical mineral availability and supply risk (for countries other than China) may not be confined to minerals produced in China.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2019

Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with>85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2022

A model to assess industry vulnerability to disruptions in mineral commodity supplies

Mineral commodity supply disruptions have the potential to ripple through and impact the economy in many ways. Industrial vulnerability is a crucial component of mineral commodity criticality tools as it provides guidance on the economic importance of these commodities to regional criticality indices. Using an economic model that links mineral commodity end-use data to input-output tables and a linear optimization routine, reductions in economic output of individual industries and of the overall economy may be calculated. Such a model can also help to identify industries, be they direct or indirect consumers of the mineral commodities in question, that are most vulnerable to specific mineral commodity supply disruptions at different disruption magnitudes. In this assessment, 56 commodities’ end-use data for the year 2012 were paired with the United States’ detail-level Benchmark Input-Output accounts to build an industrial vulnerability model. The model does not evaluate the likelihood of specific supply disruptions but can be used to assess potential industry impacts for a range of scenarios. The model findings indicate that when the supplies of mineral commodities such as mica, lithium, and fluorspar were disrupted, large overall economic decline was paired with a large decline in many industries. On the other hand, gold, lead, and rhenium disruptions resulted in low declines and few disrupted industries.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2022

Examining industry vulnerability: A focus on mineral commodities used in the automotive and electronics industries

Automotive manufacturing is material-intensive and dependent on a broad range of mineral commodities. Moreover, the automotive manufacturing industries are reliant on complex and sometimes opaque multi-tiered global supply chains. Among the many industries on which automotive supply chains depend are the electronics and semiconductor industries , which are themselves material-intensive and reliant on opaque global supply chains. A linear programming model built on mineral end-use data and input-output tables provides a tool for investigating inter-industry relationships between the two sets of industry sectors and industrial vulnerability to mineral commodity supply disruptions. Supply disruptions in aluminum, magnesium metal, and zinc—metals used in the body-in-white, wheels and other parts—have significant potential to disrupt the automotive industries. On the other hand, supply disruptions in gallium, tellurium, and indium for example—semiconductor elements used in power electronics, screen coatings and other parts—have significant potential to impact the electronics and computer industries. More interestingly, case studies of the automotive and electronics industries show how supply disruptions in mineral commodities that are generally considered semiconductor materials, such as gallium, can significantly impact the automotive sector.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2022

One hundred years of cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cobalt is an indispensable element for the manufacture of strategic technologies including advanced batteries, jet engines, rare-earth permanent magnets, petroleum catalysts, and tool parts that enable construction, manufacturing, and mining. Cobalt routinely scores high in mineral supply risk assessments due to the concentration of cobalt mine production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This stands in contrast to the fact that DRC cobalt mine production had a 20% compound annual growth rate from 1995 through 2020—in large part due to investments by Chinese firms beginning in the mid-2000s. Given this continuous growth, one may ask why this supply is perceived to be so risky. This analysis illuminates the causes of historic disruptions to DRC cobalt mine and refinery production by analyzing country-level production, historical reports, and cobalt prices back to 1924. The results indicate that the main causes of supply disruptions were damage to transportation routes, underinvestment in maintaining nationalized mining assets, and the disintegration of the DRC economy during the early 1990s. On the other hand, cobalt mine production increased 50% from 1977 to 1979 despite two secessionist conflicts in DRC's cobalt producing region and increased seven-fold from 1996 to 2003 despite two African wars over the DRC and its resources. These results indicate that—barring another economic disintegration or mining industry nationalization—DRC mine production will likely continue to be the dominant supplier of the world's growing demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries. These results also indicate that sustained development of transportation (and other) infrastructure in Africa, as well as support for good governance in the DRC may prove key to the continued stability of DRC cobalt mine supplies.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2024

From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects

Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2025

Framework for assessing intranational risk of critical mineral sectors: Case study of India

Recent geopolitical actions regarding the supply of critical minerals have highlighted both the threats posed by countries dominating a critical mineral supply chain, and the potential mitigations served by alternative supplier countries. However, no systematic quantification exists for the intranational factors that determine such threats or mitigations. This study outlines a methodological framework for quantifying the intranational risk profile of critical mineral sectors and compares them with the sector's international potential for leverage. The four intranational factors of concentration, synchronization, private sector involvement, and regulatory obstacles were analyzed across multiple scales in order to determine an intranational risk score that quantifies the resilience or fragility of the critical mineral sector in question. Network analysis was also separately conducted to identify the most important entities operating across all critical mineral sectors. Finally, this study assessed the critical mineral sector's global share of reserves and production to determine an international risk score that quantifies the country's critical mineral sector's leverage potential. A case study of India showed that two critical mineral sectors with high leverage potential, chromite and barite, were respectively intranationally resilient and fragile. Of the remaining sectors with minimal leverage, five sectors such as aluminum were intranationally resilient and may serve as viable mitigation options for future critical mineral supply. Three sectors such as titanium were intranationally fragile, but recent regulatory developments may both decrease intranational risk and increase international risk, potentially making them major critical mineral sectors in the future.

Resources Policy↗