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Effects of hydrologic infrastructure on flow regimes of California's Central Valley rivers: Implications for fish populations

Alteration of natural flow regimes is generally acknowledged to have negative effects on native biota; however, methods for defining ecologically appropriate flow regimes in managed river systems are only beginning to be developed. Understanding how past and present water management has affected rivers is an important part of developing such tools. In this paper, we evaluate how existing hydrologic infrastructure and management affect streamflow characteristics of rivers in the Central Valley, California and discuss those characteristics in the context of habitat requirements of native and alien fishes. We evaluated the effects of water management by comparing observed discharges with estimated discharges assuming no water management ("full natural runoff"). Rivers in the Sacramento River drainage were characterized by reduced winter–spring discharges and augmented discharges in other months. Rivers in the San Joaquin River drainage were characterized by reduced discharges in all months but particularly in winter and spring. Two largely unaltered streams had hydrographs similar to those based on full natural runoff of the regulated rivers. The reduced discharges in the San Joaquin River drainage streams are favourable for spawning of many alien species, which is consistent with observed patterns of fish distribution and abundance in the Central Valley. However, other factors, such as water temperature, are also important to the relative success of native and alien resident fishes. As water management changes in response to climate change and societal demands, interdisciplinary programs of research and monitoring will be essential for anticipating effects on fishes and to avoid unanticipated ecological outcomes.

California

Hyporheic flow and transport processes: mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed."

Reviews of Geophysics

eZ flow metrics: Using z-scores to estimate deviations from natural flow in the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

River flow patterns are primary drivers of lotic ecosystems, and hundreds of metrics have been developed to quantify flow attributes. Although existing metrics have been a powerful tool in designing environmental flows, they are often developed with specific resources in mind and are rarely directly comparable with each other (i.e., units are often different). Here, we focus on natural flows as the resource of interest and develop z-score metrics that measure the naturalness of regulated flows, incorporating natural means and interannual variation. These “eZ metrics” summarize whole year, subdaily, and functional flow patterns as standard deviations from natural such that their values are directly comparable. We illustrate their utility with a case study from the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, USA. We calculated metrics for 1964–2022, spanning greater than 5 decades of changing water policy, hydropower generation, and flow experimentation. We evaluate four options for estimating natural baseline flows. Across metrics, we found that subdaily stage variation deviated the most from baseline. Flows to satisfy regional water policy and power demands altered metrics more than designer flows (which target specific resource outcomes), and years with low water releases were closest to natural. Most of the designer flows have not made flow patterns more natural, due to incorrect seasonal timing, small magnitude, or short duration. By explicitly considering interannual variability and quantifying how regulated flows differ from natural using standard deviations, these metrics can inform management when the goal is to restore a natural flow regime.

Colorado River basin

Assessment of goods and valuation of ecosystem services (AGAVES) San Pedro River Basin, United States and Mexico

A consortium of federal, academic, and nongovernment organization (NGO) partners have established a collaborative research enterprise in the San Pedro River Basin to develop methods, standards, and tools to assess and value ecosystem goods and services. The central premise of ecosystem services research is that human condition is intrinsically linked to the environment. Human health and well-being (including economic prosperity) depend on important supporting, regulating, provisioning, and cultural services that we derive from our surrounding ecosystems. The AGAVES project is intended as a demonstration study for incorporating ecosystem services information into resource management policy and decisionmaking. Accordingly, a nested, multiscale project design has been adopted to address a range of stakeholder information requirements. This design will further facilitate an evaluation of how well methods developed in this project can be transferred to other areas.

Fact Sheet

US Atlantic coast striped bass: Issues with a recovered population

Striped bass, Morone saxatilis (Walbaum), is an anadromous species naturally occurring along the US Atlantic coast, which historically supported valuable commercial and recreational fisheries. In response to a near order-of-magnitude decline in landings, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission enacted a management plan in 1981 protecting fish until they could spawn at least once. By 1989, recruitment increased in natal rivers and regulations were relaxed, permitting limited fisheries by 1990. By 1995, the stock was declared fully recovered. Since the recovery, concern has increased over the health of the stocks. In the 1990s, fish in poor physical condition with dermal lesions became common in Chesapeake Bay. Pathogens of most concern in cultures from fish include the genus Mycobacterium. Coincident with declines in fish health were changes in diets, declines of preferred prey, and reduced growth and condition. Theories were suggested linking declines in condition to reductions in forage base or pathogens. Diets have changed since the 1950s and while many Chesapeake fish are infected with mycobacteria, it is still not known how or if these factors are linked. The highest priorities for research were considered to be: linking numerous local and regional studies to provide a coast-wide perspective; continuation of investigations linking population health to the prey-base; determination of the cause-effect of mycobacteria infections; and formulation of management options.

Fisheries Management and Ecology

Quantifying geomorphic and vegetation change at sandbar campsites in response to flow regulation and controlled floods, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona

Sandbars along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, USA, are an important recreational resource used as campsites by over 25,000 river runners and hikers annually. The number and size of campsites decreased following the completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 due to reductions of sediment that replenish sandbars and increases in vegetation cover caused by flow regulation. Campsite area continues to decrease despite the use of controlled floods to rebuild sandbars. We quantify the relative magnitude of factors that contribute to changes in campsite size, such as fluvial deposition and erosion, gullying, and vegetation expansion with analysis of four‐band aerial imagery and digital elevation models. Campsite area declined by 37% between 2002 and 2016 (an average of 161 m 2 per site at long‐term monitoring sites). Two drivers contributed to campsite area change: (a) short‐term gains and losses associated with controlled floods and flood‐deposit erosion and (b) long‐term one‐directional loss of campsite area caused by vegetation encroachment. There was more erosion and slope change at sites in critical reaches—sections of river where campsites are infrequent or in high demand—than in noncritical reaches. Vegetation continues to expand at campsites under flow regulation, particularly in noncritical reaches. Although controlled floods have contributed to short‐term increases in sandbar size, long‐term increases in campsite area have not occurred because of sandbar erosion between controlled floods and vegetation expansion. Manual vegetation removal may need to be considered in future management strategies.

Arizona

Research Furthers Conservation of Grand Canyon Sandbars

Grand Canyon National Park lies approximately 25 km (15 mi) down-river from Glen Canyon Dam, which was built on the Colorado River just south of the Arizona-Utah border in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. Before the dam began to regulate the Colorado River in 1963, the river carried such large quantities of red sediment, for which the Southwest is famous, that the Spanish named the river the Rio Colorado, or 'red river'. Today, the Colorado River usually runs clear below Glen Canyon Dam because the dam nearly eliminates the main-channel sand supply. The daily and seasonal flows of the river were also altered by the dam. These changes have disrupted the sedimentary processes that create and maintain Grand Canyon sandbars. Throughout Grand Canyon, sandbars create habitat for native plants and animals, supply camping beaches for river runners and hikers, and provide sediment needed to protect archaeological resources from weathering and erosion. Maintenance of sandbars in the Colorado River ecosystem, the river corridor that stretches from the dam to the western boundary of Grand Canyon National Park, is a goal of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. The program is a federally authorized initiative to ensure that the mandates of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 are met through advances in information and resource management. The U.S. Geological Survey's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center has responsibility for scientific monitoring and research efforts for the program. Extensive research and monitoring during the past decade have resulted in the identification of possible alternatives for operating Glen Canyon Dam that hold new potential for the conservation of sand resources.

Fact Sheet

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report

Environmental drivers of cyanobacterial abundance and cyanotoxin production in backwaters of the Upper Mississippi River

High densities of cyanobacteria in aquatic ecosystems can cause impacts to ecosystem services because they serve as a poor-quality food resource, produce toxins and can indirectly cause a variety of other negative impacts to water quality. There are many hypotheses about the potential environmental drivers of variation in cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity, but these hypotheses have rarely been considered in combination and rarely been examined in large river ecosystems. Here we use monthly data from backwater habitats of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) to evaluate associations between environmental conditions and cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity (microcystin and anatoxin-a) that would be expected based on several hypotheses. Backwaters in the Mississippi River vary in flushing rate, temperature, turbidity, nutrient availability, water depth and vegetative cover. We find support for hypotheses that suggest physical conditions in backwaters (flushing rate, temperature, turbidity, rooted vegetation cover and water depth) and nutrient availability influence cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity. We then used structural equation modeling to incorporate several hypotheses into a causal modeling framework, which indicated that backwater connectivity (flushing) strongly influences cyanobacterial abundance via the regulation of water temperature, and that nutrient availability strongly influences the presence of microcystin concentrations above our detection limit. Our data suggest that management of backwater connectivity could influence cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity in UMR backwaters. Reconnecting backwaters (via alteration of levees) could serve as a local adaptation to minimize the effects of climate change and excessive nutrient loading.

Wisconsin

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and Shortnose suckers in the Upper Klamath Basin

We evaluated predation on Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers Chasmistes brevirostris by American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos and double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus nesting at mixed-species colonies in the Upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California during 2009–2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering (detecting) PIT tags from tagged fish on bird colonies and calculating minimum predation rates, as the percentage of available suckers consumed, adjusted for PIT tag detection probabilities but not deposition probabilities (i.e., probability an egested tag was deposited on- or off-colony). Results indicate that impacts of avian predation varied by sucker species, age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location, and year, demonstrating dynamic predator–prey interactions. Tagged suckers ranging in size from 72 to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest Lost River Suckers were susceptible to bird predation. Minimum predation rate estimates ranged annually from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available PIT-tagged Lost River Suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available Shortnose Suckers, and predation rates were consistently higher on suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, than on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. There was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers (species unknown) in Upper Klamath Lake was higher than on adult suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, where minimum predation rates ranged annually from 5.7% to 8.4% of available juveniles. Results suggest that avian predation is a factor limiting the recovery of populations of Lost River and Shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir. Additional research is needed to measure predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities (which, based on other published studies, could increase predation rates presented herein by a factor of roughly 2.0) and to better understand biotic and abiotic factors that regulate sucker susceptibility to bird predation.

California, Oregon

The response of source-bordering aeolian dunefields to sediment-supply changes 2: Controlled floods of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

In the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in the Grand Canyon, USA, controlled floods are used to resupply sediment to, and rebuild, river sandbars that have eroded severely over the past five decades owing to dam-induced changes in river flow and sediment supply. In this study, we examine whether controlled floods, can in turn resupply aeolian sediment to some of the large source-bordering aeolian dunefields (SBDs) along the margins of the river. Using a legacy of high-resolution lidar remote-sensing and meteorological data, we characterize the response of four SBDs (a subset of 117 SBDs and other aeolian-sand-dominated areas in the canyon) during four sediment-laden controlled floods of the Colorado River in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016. We find that aeolian sediment resupply unambiguously occurred in 8 of the 16 instances of controlled flooding adjacent to SBDs. Resupply attributed to individual floods varied substantially among sites, and occurred with four, three, one, and zero floods at the four sites, respectively. We infer that the relative success of controlled floods as a regulated-river management tool for resupplying sediment to SBDs is analogous to the frequency of resupply observed for fluvial sandbars in this setting, in that sediment resupply was estimated to have occurred for roughly half of the instances of recent controlled flooding at sandbars monitored separately from this study. We find the methods developed in this, and a companion study, are effective tools to quantify geomorphic changes in sediment storage, along linked fluvial and aeolian pathways of sedimentary systems.

Arizona

Streamstats: U.S. Geological Survey web application for streamflow statistics for Connecticut

Introduction An important mission of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to provide information on streamflow in the Nation's rivers. Streamflow statistics are used by water managers, engineers, scientists, and others to protect people and property during floods and droughts, and to manage land, water, and biological resources. Common uses for streamflow statistics include dam, bridge, and culvert design; water-supply planning and management; water-use appropriations and permitting; wastewater and industrial discharge permitting; hydropower-facility design and regulation; and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. In an effort to improve access to published streamflow statistics, and to make the process of computing streamflow statistics for ungaged stream sites easier, more accurate, and more consistent, the USGS and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) developed StreamStats (Ries and others, 2004). StreamStats is a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Web application for serving previously published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS data-collection stations, and computing streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for ungaged stream sites. The USGS, in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection and the Connecticut Department of Transportation, has implemented StreamStats for Connecticut.

Connecticut

Multi-decadal sandbar response to flow management downstream from a large dam—The Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Sandbars are an important resource in the Colorado River corridor in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona, downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Sandbars provide aquatic and riparian habitat and are used as campsites by river runners and hikers. The study area is the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Diamond Creek, which is about 388 kilometers (241 miles) downstream from the dam. Closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 and subsequent flow regulation reduced the sediment supply, limited the magnitude and frequency of floods, and increased the magnitude of baseflows. The result has been widespread erosion of sandbars and expansion of native and non-native vegetation on previously bare sand deposits in this debris-fan dominated canyon river. This study reports on the on-going long-term measurement program of Northern Arizona University, initiated in 1990 with the Bureau of Reclamation, and now also with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. We report on all sandbar measurements made between 1990 and 2020 to demonstrate the multi-decadal response of the sandbar monitoring sites resulting from flow regulation by Glen Canyon Dam. Because only one study site is located in Glen Canyon, the 25 kilometer (15.5 miles) reach just below Glen Canyon Dam, analyses of sandbar response are only made for the next two canyon segments in the down-river direction, Marble Canyon (388 kilometers [99 miles]) and Grand Canyon (265 kilometers [165 miles]), respectively, where the majority of study sites are located. We show that a majority of monitoring sites increased in volume during a period of frequent controlled floods intended to rebuild sandbars. In the period from 2004 to 2020, which included seven controlled floods, a median discharge of 350 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s), and greater than average tributary sand inputs in more than half of the years, net deposition occurred at 86 percent of long-term monitoring sites. This period was preceded by a period of net erosion (1990–2003) when there was one controlled flood greater than the nominal powerplant capacity of 940 m 3 /s. During this period the median discharge from Glen Canyon Dam was 376 m 3 /s and greater than average sand inputs occurred in only 36 percent of those years. At the end of the monitoring period in 2020, 61 percent of the study sites measured since 1990 underwent a net increase in sand volume. For the entire 31-year period, these trends were statistically significant for all six sandbar types studied, indicating that increased frequency of controlled flooding maintained sandbar volume at the majority of sites monitored. These floods, also referred to as high-flow experiments (HFEs), are part of a decision-making protocol approved in 2012 for coordinating dam releases timed to occur following large sand inputs to the Colorado River by a major tributary. These findings are based on digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from approximately (~)1,800 repeat surveys of sandbar and channel bed topography made annually, or more frequently, at the 45 long-term monitoring sites, of which 31 have been monitored since 1990 and 14 were added between 1990 and 2008. This large collection of monitoring sites comprises just 7 to 9 percent of all sandbars in Marble and Grand Canyons, respectively. Nevertheless, when compared with measurements of a larger sample, these sites provide consistent characterization of average sandbar response, despite the local variability in channel and debris fan geometry. We use sand volume and normalized sand volume for tracking geomorphic changes of sandbars, because these metrics are sensitive to both changes in sandbar area and sandbar elevation. Based on checkpoint comparisons and repeat measurements, DEM elevation uncertainty was determined to be ±0.05 meter (m) and this uncertainty was used in a spatially uniform estimate of volume uncertainty. We find that the magnitudes of the topographic changes were substantially greater than the measurement uncertainty. Sandbars of similar type throughout both Marble and Grand Canyons have responded similarly during the period of the HFE protocol, despite variations in sand supply and longitudinal extent of those inputs. It should be noted that tributary-supplied sand to Glen Canyon is negligible, much of the riverbed is now armored with cobbles, and the channel bed degradation is irreversible in the current flow and sediment supply regime. Because all these HFEs have been conducted during periods of sediment enrichment, other factors such as vegetation and geomorphic setting are likely the primary causes of variation among the monitoring sites. A larger percentage of the sandbar population, predominantly located in narrow reaches where stage changes are greater, is composed of sandbar types that remain dynamic and consistently aggrade during HFEs. In contrast, wide reaches of the river corridor where stage change is not as great are characterized by sandbars that have been stabilized by vegetation and progressive aggradation during floods. In the former case, a majority of sandbars are likely to remain dynamic, requiring continued use of HFEs to achieve desired management goals. In the latter case, HFEs can do no better than replace the sediment eroded during normal dam operation between high-flow events, as they become less effective because of a diminishing amount of accommodation space available for deposition. Long-term sandbar trajectory and the continued effectiveness of HFEs are related to the differential vegetation establishment at each bar type. Future sandbar monitoring may need to consider the effects of riparian vegetation removal.

Arizona

The Evolution of the Lower Missouri River: National Mapping Discipline Research at Lisbon Bottom

Before 1800, the Missouri River was one of North America's most diverse and dynamic ecosystems. During the past 200 years, civil engineering has transformed it into a navigation system regulated by reservoirs and confined by bank stabilization and flood control structures. These modifications have reduced seasonal flow variability and sediment load and have disconnected the river from backwater, off-channel, and floodplain habitats. Flooding along the Lower Missouri River in 1993 and again in 1996 created a side-channel chute across Lisbon Bottom, a well-formed loop bottom near Glasgow, Mo. The formation and subsequent development of the chute have provided USGS scientists with a glimpse of a preregulated Missouri River. Knowledge of geologic characteristics and processes in an alluvial setting like Lisbon Bottom provides a scientific basis for floodplain management. This knowledge is also vital to a complete understanding of riverine habitat disturbance, recovery, and rehabilitation. A critical component of this knowledge is an understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between riverine habitats and geomorphic processes.

Fact Sheet

Ecological Requirements for Pallid Sturgeon Reproduction and Recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: A Research Synthesis 2005-08

This report provides a synthesis of results obtained between 2005 and 2008 from the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program, an interagency collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Recovery - Integrated Science Program. The goal of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program is to improve fundamental understanding of reproductive ecology of the pallid sturgeon with the intent that improved understanding will inform river and species management decisions. Specific objectives include: *Determining movement, habitat-use, and reproductive behavior of pallid sturgeon; *Understanding reproductive physiology of pallid sturgeon and relations to environmental conditions; *Determining origin, transport, and fate of drifting pallid sturgeon larvae, and evaluating bottlenecks for recruitment of early life stages; *Quantifying availability and dynamics of aquatic habitats needed by pallid sturgeon for all life stages; and *Managing databases, integrating understanding, and publishing relevant information into the public domain. Management actions to increase reproductive success and survival of pallid sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River have been focused on flow regime, channel morphology, and propagation. Integration of 2005-08 Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program research provides insight into linkages among flow regime, re-engineered channel morphology, and pallid sturgeon reproduction and survival. The research approach of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program integrates opportunistic field studies, field-based experiments, and controlled laboratory studies. The field study plan is designed to explore the role of flow regime and associated environmental cues using two complementary approaches. An upstream-downstream approach compares sturgeon reproductive behavior between an upstream section of the Lower Missouri River with highly altered flow regime to a downstream section that maintains much of its pre-regulation flow variability. The upstream section also has the potential for an experimental approach to compare reproductive behavior in years with pulsed flow modifications ('spring rises') to years without. The reproductive cycle of the female sturgeon requires several years to progress through gonadal development, oocyte maturation, and spawning. Converging lines of evidence support the hypothesis that maturation and readiness to spawn in female sturgeon is cued many months before spawning. Information on reproductive readiness of shovelnose sturgeon indicates that sturgeon at different locations along the Lower Missouri River between St. Louis and Gavins Point Dam are all responding to the same early cue. Although not a perfect surrogate, the more abundant shovelnose sturgeon is morphologically, physiologically, and genetically similar to pallid sturgeon, and thereby provides a useful comparative model for the rarer species. Day length is the likely candidate to define a temporal spawning window. Within the spawning window, one or more additional, short-term, and specific cues may serve to signal ovulation and release of gametes. Of three potential spawning cues - water temperature, water discharge, and day of year - water temperature is the most likely proximate cue because of the fundamental physiological role temperature plays in sturgeon embryo development and survival, and the sensitivity of many fish hormones to temperature change. It also is possible that neither temperature nor discharge is cueing spawning; instead, reproductive behavior may result from the biological clock advancing an individual fish's readiness to spawn day after day through the spawning period until the right moment, independent of local environmental conditions. Separation of the individual effects of discharge events, water temperature, and other possible factors, such as proximity to male

Scientific Investigations Report

Recent advances in statistical methods for the estimation of sediment and nutrient transport in rivers

This paper reviews advances in methods for estimating fluvial transport of suspended sediment and nutrients. Research from the past four years, mostly dealing with estimating monthly and annual loads, is emphasized. However, because this topic has not appeared in previous IUGG reports, some research prior to 1990 is included. The motivation for studying sediment transport has shifted during the past few decades. In addition to its role in filling reservoirs and channels, sediment is increasingly recognized as an important part of fluvial ecosystems and estuarine wetlands. Many groups want information about sediment transport [ Bollman , 1992]: Scientists trying to understand benthic biology and catchment hydrology; citizens and policy-makers concerned about environmental impacts (e.g. impacts of logging [ Beschta , 1978] or snow-fences [ Sturges , 1992]); government regulators considering the effectiveness of programs to protect in-stream habitat and downstream waterbodies; and resource managers seeking to restore wetlands.

Reviews of Geophysics

How uncertainty analysis of streamflow data can reduce costs and promote robust decisions in water management applications

Streamflow data are used for important environmental and economic decisions, such as specifying and regulating minimum flows, managing water supplies, and planning for flood hazards. Despite significant uncertainty in most flow data, the flow series for these applications are often communicated and used without uncertainty information. In this commentary, we argue that proper analysis of uncertainty in river flow data can reduce costs and promote robust conclusions in water management applications. We substantiate our argument by providing case studies from Norway and New Zealand where streamflow uncertainty analysis has uncovered economic costs in the hydropower industry, improved public acceptance of a controversial water management policy, and tested the accuracy of water quality trends. We discuss the need for practical uncertainty assessment tools that generate multiple flow series realizations rather than simple error bounds. Although examples of such tools are in development, considerable barriers for uncertainty analysis and communication still exist for practitioners, and future research must aim to provide easier access and usability of uncertainty estimates. We conclude that flow uncertainty analysis is critical for good water management decisions.

Water Resources Research

Integrated tools for identifying optimal flow regimes and evaluating alternative minimum flows for recovering at-risk salmonids in a highly managed system

Water resource managers are faced with difficult decisions on how to satisfy human water needs while maintaining or restoring riverine ecosystems. Decision sciences have developed approaches and tools that can be used to break down difficult water management decisions into their component parts. An essential aspect of these approaches is the use of quantitative models to evaluate alternative management strategies. Here, we describe four integrated decision support models for evaluating the effect of flows on two life history stages of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Steelhead ( O. mykiss ). We then use constrained nonlinear optimization to identify optimal flow regimes for the water year type with the least available water. These flow regimes were then used by managers to develop candidate minimum flow strategies that were evaluated using forward simulation and sensitivity analyses. We found that optimal flow regimes differed markedly from existing regulations and varied among species and life history stages. However, evaluation of tradeoffs among the four competing objectives indicated relatively minimal losses for most objectives when the optimal flows were based on equally weighting the objectives. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water temperature was the primary driver of estimated outcomes and suggested that managers consider alternative means of managing temperatures. Decision sciences have created multiple analytical tools and approaches that simplify complex problems, such as water resource management, and we believe that water resource management would benefit from their increased use.

Oregon