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Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico

Analysis of the potential effects of Uzbekistan’s mineral endowment on the critical mineral supply of tungsten

Tungsten appears on the 2018 and 2022 U.S. Geological Survey critical mineral lists in part because of a very high global production concentration in China, which produces almost 83 percent of the world’s mined tungsten. Using known parameters and values from other tungsten mining operations, we created hypothetical scenarios in which three tungsten deposits in Uzbekistan are considered for development. Our results show that all three deposits are likely to be economically viable to develop under 2024 market conditions. If the three studied tungsten deposits were put into production, Uzbekistan could become the third-leading tungsten-producing country in the world and increase world output of tungsten by 2.7 percent. Putting these tungsten deposits in Uzbekistan into production could slightly reduce the tungsten global market concentration, therefore reducing the supply disruption potential for tungsten.

Open-File Report

The water quality of Livingston Reservoir on the Trinity River, Southeastern Texas

The concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate in Livingstone Reservoir on the Trinity River in southeastern Texas usually average less than 250 mg/1 (milligrams per litre), 40 mg/1, and 50 mg/1, respectively. The water is usually hard or moderately hard (61 to 180 mg/1 as calcium carbonate). The concentrations of principal dissolved constituents in the reservoir are usually maximum during summer and fall when evaporation is high and inflow is low. Thermal stratification of the reservoir usually begins in March and persists until September or October. Neither the seasonal variation of dissolved constituents in inflow to the reservoir nor thermal stratification has resulted in significant stratification of the principal dissolved constituents. However, thermal stratification has resulted in significant seasonal and areal variations of dissolved oxygen, which results in higher concentration of dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, total phosphorus, and total inorganic nitrogen.

Texas

Long‐period ground motions from dynamic rupture simulations of large earthquakes on the creeping Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek fault system

he Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults in the San Francisco Bay region of California have a high probability of producing a large earthquake in the next decades. Although these faults creep, the creep is insufficient to keep up with their relatively rapid slip rates on their deepest sections, so they have been storing tectonic strain since their last large earthquakes, with the Hayward’s and Rodgers Creek’s more than 150 yr ago. We do not know what the next large Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek earthquakes will look like or how strongly they will shake the San Francisco Bay region. Harris et al. (2021) used the 3D dynamic (spontaneous) rupture method to simulate large earthquakes on these creeping faults. In this article, we examine the resulting simulated long‐period ( T > 1 s) ground shaking from 0 to 50 km distance, for earthquakes nucleating on the Hayward fault and earthquakes nucleating on the Rodgers Creek fault. We compare these simulated long‐period ground motions with the Boore et al. (2014) well‐established empirically based ground‐motion model suitable for the slowest material velocity in our 3D velocity structure. We find that the simulated long‐period ground motions from the creeping‐fault earthquake scenarios produce a reasonable agreement with the empirical expectations if frictional cohesion is included only where it is appropriate.

California

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States

Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Earthquakes of magnitude ( M ) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M 6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.

Science

A temporal look at the influence of topographic amplification on earthquake-triggered landslides in 3D seismic simulations

Earthquakes are a primary trigger for landslides, often leading to catastrophic consequences. While numerous studies have explored the spatial distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides, understanding the interaction between seismic waves and topography remains a critical challenge. Topographic irregularities can cause seismic wave amplification, altering ground shaking, and can trigger landslides that are challenging for predictive models to anticipate. This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of topographically amplified landslides, focusing on coseismic landslides triggered by the Mw 7.5 mainshock of the 2018 Papua New Guinea earthquake and post-seismic landslides associated with its four aftershocks, each exceeding Mw 6.0. We employ low-frequency, three-dimensional numerical ground shaking simulations and data-driven multivariate analyses to examine how landslides evolved from the coseismic to post-seismic periods. Our findings reveal a spatial shift in landslide distribution, in which the mainshock triggered slope failures predominantly on steep hillslopes, and the aftershocks triggered landslides on gentler slopes, often near geologic boundaries. We attribute this transition partly to the earthquake legacy effect of the mainshock, where the mainshock caused weakening of these hillslopes, making them more prone to failure when aftershocks occur. Additionally, the concentration of failures along geologic contacts in the post-seismic phase suggests that site amplification, stemming from contrasts in subsurface materials, exerts a key influence on landslide occurrence. Although not explicitly captured in our current numerical simulations, this mechanism warrants further investigation for more accurate hazard modeling.

JGR Solid Earth

Special issue "Effects of surface geology on seismic motion (ESG): General state-of-research"

To understand and predict the behaviors of strong ground motions incurred during devastating earthquakes, studies focused on the “effects of surface geology (ESG) on seismic motions” (following tradition, herein contracted as: “ESG”) have progressed steadily in the last three decades. These ESG studies typically involve in situ measurements of the wavefield and commonly apply both analytical and computational approaches. Concurrently, improvements in ESG related research can be readily attributed to the proliferation of openly accessible strong motion data, as well as advances in computational power. Nevertheless, there remain significant shortfalls in our understanding of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with the ESG as demonstrated by phenomena from recent deadly earthquake-related site effects. Thus, investigations toward addressing these deficiencies should be underscored in future earthquake related disaster mitigation efforts. This special issue of Earth, Planets, and Space (EPS) is dedicated to the ongoing efforts by the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) and the International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) that champion activities promoting studies related to the ESG.

Earth, Planets and Space

Interactive effects of salinity and hydrology on radial growth of bald cypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) in coastal Louisiana, USA

Tidal freshwater forests are usually located at or above the level of mean high water. Some Louisiana coastal forests are below mean high water, especially bald cypress ( Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) forests because flooding has increased due to the combined effects of global sea level rise and local subsidence. In addition, constructed channels from the coast inland act as conduits for saltwater. As a result, saltwater intrusion affects the productivity of Louisiana’s coastal bald cypress forests. To study the long-term effects of hydrology and salinity on the health of these systems, we fitted dendrometer bands on selected trees to record basal area increment as a measure of growth in permanent forest productivity plots established within six bald cypress stands. Three stands were in freshwater sites with low salinity rooting zone groundwater (0.1–1.3 ppt), while the other three had higher salinity rooting zone groundwater (0.2–4.9 ppt). Water level was logged continuously, and salinity was measured monthly to quarterly on the surface and in groundwater wells. Higher groundwater salinity levels were related to decreased bald cypress radial growth, while higher freshwater flooding increased radial growth. With these data, coastal managers can model rates of bald cypress forest change as a function of salinity and flooding.

Louisiana

Preface to the focus section on earthquake-induced ground deformation

Ground failure due to earthquake-induced liquefaction, surface fault rupture, and landsliding has caused substantial damage in the past and continues to pose risks to critical infrastructure in the future. The consideration of ground failure is central to engineering analysis and design, ranging from site-specific engineering assessments of ground failure potential to broader regional-scale ground failure assessments of near-real-time earthquake impacts or longer-term portfolio risk. Uncertainties in all aspects of the problem complicate the prediction of earthquake-induced ground failure, including the identification of hazard-susceptible geomaterials, characterizing their spatial extent and physical properties, spatio-temporal variability in groundwater conditions, characterization of earthquake ground motions, assessing ground failure severity, and linking ground failure severity to infrastructure damage and loss.

Seismological Research Letters

Tectonic controls on volcanism and associated hydrothermal activity in a sediment-dominated mid-ocean ridge; Escanaba Trough

Mid-ocean ridges, the Earth's most extensive volcanic system, exhibit unique characteristics in sediment-dominant environments. Thick sediment cover insulates the crust and channels fluid along pathways that can lead to the formation of distinct crustal alteration patterns, exceptionally large mineral deposits, and specialized chemosynthetic ecosystems. This study presents an interdisciplinary investigation into the tectonics of the Escanaba Trough, a heavily sedimented axial valley at the southern Gorda Ridge in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. A primary challenge in such environments is overcoming the masking effect of thick sediments on basement structures that control magmatic and hydrothermal activity. We address this by employing three-dimensional (3D) magnetic modeling of high-resolution near-seafloor magnetic data collected by an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The 2022 surveys with AUV Sentry provided data for 3D magnetic susceptibility models, refining our understanding of the geometry of sub-sediment laccoliths/saucer-shaped sills and hydrothermal alteration. In conjunction with a new 1:100,000 scale lithostratigraphic map, we outline the tectonic controls on the emplacement of Escanaba Trough's three main volcanic centers, characterize the geometry of its spreading segments, and provide volumetric data on the distribution of sub-sediment volcanism in the southern Gorda Ridge.

Escanaba Trough, Pacific Ocean

Introduction to the special section on improving measurements of earthquake source parameters

Earthquake source parameters such as magnitude, seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated energy are fundamental to understanding earthquake physics, and are also key ingredients in earthquake ground‐motion modeling, rupture simulation, and statistical seismology. However, the uncertainties in these parameters estimated from the radiated seismic wavefield are large due to variability in approaches, including site and attenuation characterizations, and so estimates for an individual earthquake made by different studies can vary greatly. Estimating spectral source parameters remains a popular topic, due to a combination of their intrinsic importance and their apparent ease of measurement, but also a controversial one, due to many sources of variability and large uncertainty. The available methods coupled with necessary parameter choices and assumptions in the analysis make it challenging for researchers to apply methods or understand the reliability in results or reported source parameters. This Special Section on Improving Measurements of Earthquake Source Parameters showcasing comparisons between methods and studies seeks to alleviate some of these difficulties to help the community identify the important components and trade‐offs of decomposing recorded seismograms into their source, path, and site components.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Future water constraints on United States lithium mining under climate change

Lithium is necessary for low-carbon technologies that combat climate change, but lithium extraction is water-intensive. Changes in temperature and precipitation arising from climate change are altering water distribution, which could further strain supplies for new mines and industry, farms, and households. Here we explored how climate change, water use, and mining siting could impact lithium mining in the United States. We analyzed whether there would be sufficient water available to support the single existing and 22 proposed U.S. lithium mines at mid-century under four socioeconomic-climate scenarios and five climate models. Though dependent on socioeconomic-climate scenario, climate model, and lithium deposit type, available water supply in most subbasins would likely be unable to support new mines’ water demands, or even non-mining water demands from other sectors. Water scarcity could hinder the ability of the United States to produce enough lithium to meet domestic demand thereby necessitating higher imports.

conterminous United States

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula

Trace elements in some rocks and slag from the Yemen Arab Republic and their bearing on the iron ore near Sa'dah

Thirty-seven samples of rocks, saprolite, laterite, gossan, and slag were collected in the Yemen Arab Republic during June-July 1975 when field work was conducted to refine an interpretation of the regional geology made from LANDSAT-1 images by M. J. Grolier. These samples we reanalyzed in the laboratories of the U. S. Geological Survey, and the results were interpreted for use in programs of economic development as a guide for the evaluation of mineral resources in the Yemen Arab Republic. The work was undertaken as part of the program of the U. S. Agency for International Development with the cooperation of the Mineral and Petroleum Authority, Ministry of Economy, Yemen Arab Republic.

Open-File Report

Extreme precipitation variability and soil texture controls on water-table response

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs), a key class of hydrometeorological extremes, are intensifying globally under climate change; however, their effects on water-table dynamics across varying soil textures remain poorly understood. To better understand the impacts of EPEs, we conducted one-dimensional modeling to evaluate water-table response time, displacement, recession time, and total recharge under EPEs of 0.20 m, 0.40 m, and 0.60 m amounts, applied over 1-, 7-, and 20-day durations across twelve soil textures. The results show that coarse soils (i.e., sand) respond within days, while fine soils (i.e., clay) may take over 200 days. Water-table displacement ranged from 0.30 to 1.64 m and increased with EPE magnitude. The time it took for water tables to recede ranged from 1.2 to 3.0 years. A first-order estimate of total possible recharge, calculated from porosity and displacement, ranged from 17% (clay) to 97% (sand), averaging ~63% across soil textures. These findings highlight that recharge is primarily governed by EPE magnitude and soil properties, not event duration. This modeling effort provides new insight into how soil texture modulates groundwater response to extreme precipitation, informing future water budget and resilience assessments.

Water

Prioritizing US Geological Survey science on salinization and salinity in candidate and selected priority river basins

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is selecting and prioritizing basins, known as Integrated Water Science basins, for monitoring and intensive study. Previous efforts to aid in this selection process include a scientifically defensible and quantitative assessment of basins facing human-caused water resource challenges (Van Metre et al. in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 192(7), 458 2020). In the present work, we explore this ranking process based on water quality considerations, specifically salinity and salinization. We selected top candidate basins to study salinity and salinization issues in 18 hydrologic regions that include 163 candidate basins. Our prioritization is based on quantitative assessment of sources of salinity, drivers of change, and receptors that must respond to those sources and drivers. Source terms represented in the prioritization include geology, depth to brackish groundwater, stream conductivity, chloride in precipitation, urban and agricultural land use, application of road salt as a deicer, and irrigation. Drivers represented in prioritization include changes in chemical weathering as a result of changes in rainwater chemistry. Receptors include measures of water stress, measurements of stream ecological health, and socioeconomic factors. In addition, we present research activities for the USGS on salinity and salinization that can be pursued in these basins including assessment of sources, pathways, and loadings; predicting and understanding changes in sources, peaks, and trends; understanding the components of salinity and mobilization of contaminants; understanding the relationship between salinization and changing ecosystems; and developing knowledge on the causes and distribution of groundwater salinity, brackish water resources, and challenges related to desalination.

Enviornmental Monitoring and Assessment

Reply to, “Comment on ‘The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake: Relic railroad offset reveals rupture,’ by Roger Bilham and Susan E. Hough”

We welcome this opportunity to respond to Pratt et al. (2024) (hereinafter P24). Bilham and Hough (2023) proposed a “first-cut” elastic deformation model for the 1886 earthquake, a quantitative source model constrained by identified coseismic constraints. A key observation was the measurement of a lateral offset of a railroad line south of Summerville, leading to a model with predominately dextral slip and minor convergence, from which we concluded that active faulting had raised the Penholoway Marine Terrace >6 m since ∼770 ka. P24 questioned these constraints and proposed an alternative rupture model with predominantly reverse slip. This alternative model is neither consistent with coseismic constraints nor with other geophysical data. In a revised model presented here, we recognize that uplift of the Penholoway Terrace is confined to the eastern edge of the terrace, which we conclude results from active folding and tectonic transpression centered on the dextral fault that offset the railroad in 1886.

South Carolina