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USGS2016

2015 National Park visitor spending effects: Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2015, the National Park System received over 307.2 million recreation visits. NPS visitors spent \$16.9 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 295 thousand jobs, \$11.1 billion in labor income, \$18.4 billion in value added, and \$32.0 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with \$5.2 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bar sector, with \$3.4 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at http://go.nps.gov/vse.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 11a: giant sequoias

For natural resource managers in the southern Sierra Nevada, giant sequoia requires very little introduction. It receives great attention as an icon of western forests and as a common namesake with the areas where it occurs. While it is a single component of a very complex system, its attention in this assessment and in general is well deserved. Giant sequoia is one of the few "destination species" that attracts a wide swath of the public by nature of it simply being present. It draws people, who otherwise may not travel, to a natural environment. The result is an expansion of the public’s sense of natural resource stewardship. Because park managers could not achieve their mission without public support, this fostering role of giant sequoia is critical for park natural resources and is important for natural resources in general. Despite its social relevance and physical size, we re-emphasize here that the giant sequoia resource is a relatively small component of the ecosystems of the southern Sierra Nevada. As is the case with all of the resources assessed in the NRCA, we focus on giant sequoia with the understanding that other resources will be considered simultaneously when evaluating management decisions that impact giant sequoia. While we attempt to explicitly address the interaction of giant sequoia with other resources and stressors, we also realize that ultimately managers will integrate much more information than is presented here when making decisions that influence giant sequoia. The autecology and management issues surrounding giant sequoia have been thoroughly reviewed elsewhere (Harvey et al. 1980, Aune 1994, Stephenson 1996). Stephenson (1996), in particular, should be reviewed when considering any management decisions that potentially impact giant sequoia. For those who may not be familiar with giant sequoia ecology, a summary of basic information is provided in a table below. In some parts of this assessment, we reproduce text from Stephenson’s review because it is still relatively current for addressing some of the stressors. Numerous recent studies reported since 1996 have confirmed and expanded the understanding of giant sequoia, especially in areas related to ecophysiology and the effectiveness of restoration treatments. These recent studies are integrated into this assessment. Additionally, much unpublished work has been done that is useful for establishing baselines and evaluating trends. This work is presented in detail in order to expand upon previous work and to inform the final assessments. Instead of providing an introductory description of giant sequoia distribution and the various landowners who manage groves, we refer readers to the more recent descriptions provided by Stephenson (1996) and Willard (2000). Some of the relevant points from these descriptions with respect to giant sequoia within SEKI and Giant Sequoia National Monument (GSNM) include: - Of the native giant sequoia grove area in SEKI and GSNM approximately 38% is within SEKI and 62% is within GSNM. - 35 of the groves that make up the entire population are all or partially managed by SEKI and 33 are managed by GSNM. - As we have done above, reviewers addressing giant sequoia widely recognize its transcendence beyond an ecologically important species to one with considerable added cultural value.

California↗
USGS2022

2021 National park visitor spending effects: Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports economic activity within park gateway communities. This report summarizes the annual economic contribution analysis that measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2021, the National Park System received over 297 million recreation visits (up 25% from 2020). Visitors to national parks spent an estimated $20.5 billion in local gateway regions (up 41% from 2020). The estimated contribution of this spending to the national economy was 322,600 jobs, $14.6 billion in labor income, $24.3 billion in value added, and $42.5 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct effects, with $7 billion in economic output directly contributed to this sector nationally. The restaurants sector saw the next greatest effects, with $4.2 billion in economic output directly contributed to this sector nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. The interactive tool is available at https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2015

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2016

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2017

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Appalachian National Scenic Trail vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program classifies, describes, and maps existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Northeast Temperate Network, and NPS Appalachian National Scenic Trail (APPA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of APPA for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of APPA and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 1,618 vegetation plots were used to describe USNVC associations of APPA. Data from 289 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Data from 269 validation sites were collected to assess vegetation mapping prior to submitting the vegetation map for accuracy assessment (AA). Data from 3,265 AA sites were collected, of which 3,204 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer. The collective of these datasets affirmed 280 USNVC associations for the APPA vegetation mapping project. To map the vegetation and land cover of APPA, 169 map classes were developed. The 169 map classes consist of 150 that represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 11 that represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 that represent natural landscapes with catastrophic disturbance or some other modification to natural vegetation preventing accurate classification in the USNVC, and 3 that represent nonvegetated water (non-USNVC). Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). (Digital aerial imagery was collected each fall during 2009–11 to capture leaf-phenology change of hardwood trees across the latitudinal range of APPA.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5-hectare (ha) or 0.25-ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario; however, polygon units were mapped to 0.1 ha for alpine vegetation. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables provide locations and support data to USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, validation sites, AA sites, project boundary extent and zones, and aerial image centers and flight lines. The feature-class layer and related tables of the vegetation map layer provide 30,395 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 110,919.7 ha, with an average polygon size of 3.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for APPA. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 28,242 polygons (92.9% of polygons) and cover 106,413.0 ha (95.9%) of the map extent for APPA. The map layer indicates APPA to be 92.4% forest and woodland (102,480.8 ha), 1.7% shrubland (1866.3 ha), and 1.8% herbaceous cover (2,065.9 ha). Map classes representing park-special vegetation (undefined in the USNVC) apply to 58 polygons (0.2% of polygons) and cover 404.3 ha (0.4%) of the map extent. Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 1,777 polygons (5.8% of polygons) and cover 2,516.3 ha (2.3%) of the map extent. Map classes representing nonvegetated water (non-USNVC) apply to 332 polygons (1.1% of polygons) and cover 1,586.2 ha (1.4%) of the map extent.

Appalachian National Scenic Trail↗
USGS2021

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Great Smoky Mountains National Park vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation communities in national park units throughout the United States. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Inventory and Monitoring Program and provides baseline vegetation information to natural resource managers, researchers, and ecologists. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, and NPS Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM, also referred to as the “Park”) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of GRSM, including the Foothills Parkway, for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types of GRSM and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. A vegetation classification developed in 2003 by NatureServe and the NPS served as a foundation to further classify and map the vegetation types of the Park. Data from an additional 10 vegetation plots supported vegetation types either rare or not documented in the 2003 classification. Data from 203 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation types and the application of vegetation types to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 972 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 966 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). This GRSM vegetation mapping project identified 112 vegetation types consisting of 105 association types in the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC), 2 “park-special” types, 1 “map-special” type, and 4 cultural types in the USNVC. To map the vegetation and land cover of GRSM, 52 map classes were developed. Of these 52 map classes, 46 represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types, most of which types are recognized in the USNVC. For the remaining 6 of the 52 map classes, 4 represent USNVC cultural types for agricultural and developed areas, and 2 represent non-USNVC types for nonvegetated open water and nonvegetated rock. Features were interpreted from viewing four-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems; digital aerial imagery was collected during September 23–October 30, 2015. The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in a geographic information system. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5- or 0.25- hectare (ha) minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type. A geodatabase containing several feature-class layers and tables provides the locations and data of USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial image centers and flight lines. Covering 210,875 ha, the feature-class layer and related tables for the vegetation map layer provide 34,084 polygons of detailed attribute data when special modifiers are not considered (average polygon size of 6.2 ha) and 36,589 polygons of detailed attribute data when special modifiers are considered (average polygon size of 5.8 ha). Each map polygon is assigned a map-class code and name and, when applicable, are linked to USNVC classification tables within the geodatabase. The vegetation map extent includes the administrative boundary for GRSM and the Foothills Parkway. A summary report, generated from the vegetation map layer, concludes that the 46 map classes representing natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 99.2% of polygons (33,797 polygons; average size of 6.2 ha) and cover 98.6% of the Park (207,971.4 ha). Further broken down, map classes representing natural vegetation types indicate that the Park is 97.7% forest and woodland (205,882.5 ha), 0.6% shrubland (1,174.6 ha), and 0.4% herbaceous (914.3 ha). Map classes representing cultural vegetation types apply to 0.8% of polygons (259 polygons; average size of 4.9 ha) and cover 0.6% of the Park (1,277.4 ha). Map classes representing nonvegetation open and flowing water and unvegetated rock apply to 0.08% of polygons (28 polygons; average size of 58.1 ha) and cover 0.8% of the Park (1,625.9 ha). A thematic AA study was completed of map classes representing the natural (including ruderal) vegetation types of the Park. Initial AA results were discussed with NPS staff from the Park. Following input from NPS staff on how to handle map classes that fell below accuracy standards, adjustments were made to the vegetation map layer. Final results indicate an overall accuracy of 80.64% (kappa index of 79.96% for chance agreements) based on data from 966 of the 972 AA sites. Most individual map-class themes exceed the NPS VMI Program standard of 80% with a 90% confidence interval. The GRSM vegetation mapping project delivers many geospatial and vegetation data products, including an in-depth project report discussing methods and results, which includes map classification and map-class descriptions. This suite of products also includes descriptions and a field key to vegetation types; a database of vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites; digital images of field sites; field data sheets; digital aerial imagery; hardcopy and digital maps; a geodatabase of vegetation and land cover (map layer), field sites (vegetation plots, verification sites, and AA sites), aerial imagery index, project boundary, and metadata; and a contingency table listing AA results. Geospatial products are projected in the Universal Transverse Mercator, Zone 17 North, by using the North American Datum of 1983. Information on the NPS VMI Program and completed mapping projects are on the internet at https://www.nps.gov/im/vegetation-inventory.htm.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗
USGS2013

Vegetation inventory, mapping, and classification report, Fort Bowie National Historic Site

A vegetation mapping and characterization effort was conducted at Fort Bowie National Historic Site in 2008-10 by the Sonoran Desert Network office in collaboration with researchers from the Office of Arid lands studies, Remote Sensing Center at the University of Arizona. This vegetation mapping effort was completed under the National Park Service Vegetation Inventory program which aims to complete baseline mapping inventories at over 270 national park units. The vegetation map data was collected to provide park managers with a digital map product that met national standards of spatial and thematic accuracy, while also placing the vegetation into a regional and even national context. Work comprised of three major field phases 1) concurrent field-based classification data collection and mapping (map unit delineation), 2) development of vegetation community types at the National Vegetation Classification alliance or association level and 3) map accuracy assessment. Phase 1 was completed in late 2008 and early 2009. Community type descriptions were drafted to meet the then-current hierarchy (version 1) of the National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS) and these were applied to each of the mapped areas. This classification was developed from both plot level data and censused polygon data (map units) as this project was conducted as a concurrent mapping and classification effort. The third stage of accuracy assessment completed in the fall of 2010 consisted of a complete census of each map unit and was conducted almost entirely by park staff. Following accuracy assessment the map was amended where needed and final products were developed including this report, a digital map and full vegetation descriptions. Fort Bowie National Historic Site covers only 1000 acres yet has a relatively complex landscape, topography and geology. A total of 16 distinct communities were described and mapped at Fort Bowie NHS. These ranged from lush riparian woodlands lining the ephemeral washes dominated by Ash (Fraxinus), Walnut (Juglans) and Hackberry (Celtis) to drier upland sites typical of desert scrub and semi-desert grassland communities. These shrublands boast a diverse mixture of shrubs, succulents and perennial grasses. In many places the vegetation could be seen to echo the history of the fort site, with management of shrub encroachment apparent in the grasslands and the paucity of trees evidence of historic cutting for timber and fire wood. Seven of the 16 vegetation types were ‘accepted’ types within the NVC while the others have been described here as specific to FOBO and have proposed status within the NVC. The map was designed to facilitate ecologically-based natural resources management and research. The map is in digital format within a geodatabase structure that allows for complex relationships to be established between spatial and tabular data, and makes accessing the product easy and seamless. The GIS format allows user flexibility and will also enable updates to be made as new information becomes available (such as revised NVC codes or vegetation type names) or in the event of major disturbance events that could impact the vegetation.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning

This report illustrates use of scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool supporting Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve’s Resource Stewardship Strategy. The primary objective of scenario planning is to help resource managers and scientists make management and planning decisions informed by assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report outlines a process that synthesized future climate projections into three distinct but plausible and relevant climate summaries for the focal area and used them to develop climate-resource scenarios through participatory scenario planning. Initial steps identified the priority resource management topics and the corresponding related climate uncertainties. Next, local climate summaries were used to develop divergent climate futures: those that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions while capturing relevant uncertainty. The final phase further developed the climate futures and their resource implications. These participatory scenario planning exercises occurred virtually in fall (August–November) 2021. The climate-resource scenarios informed adaptation strategies in conjunction with the park’s Resource Stewardship Strategy development. The scope and complexity of this effort is unique but elements from the scenarios and resource implications have broad applicability to other large, protected areas in Alaska and Northwest Canada.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Fisheries and aquatic resources of Prairie Creek, Redwood National Park

This report synthesizes information on the status of fisheries and aquatic resources in the Prairie Creek sub-basin of Redwood Creek in Humboldt County in northern California, founded on a bibliographic search we conducted of historic and current datasets, unpublished reports, theses, and publications. The compiled Prairie Creek Fisheries Bibliography is available at https://irma.nps.gov/DataStore/. This report describes life histories and population status of the salmonid fishes, and species occurrence of non-salmonid fishes, amphibians, macroinvertebrates, and common benthic algae in Prairie Creek. We assessed habitat conditions that may limit salmonid production in relation to recovery targets established by the National Marine Fisheries Service and the State of California. Although salmon abundance has decreased from historic levels, production of juvenile salmonids in Prairie Creek is relatively stable and robust in comparison with the rest of the Redwood Creek Basin. Carrying capacity likely differs between the undisturbed upper reaches of Prairie Creek and reaches in the lower creek, the latter of which are affected by legacy impacts from timber and agricultural activities. Increased sediment supply and lack of channel structure and floodplain connection in lower Prairie Creek appear to be the greatest stressors to salmonid production. Existing datasets on aquatic resources and environmental variables are listed, and subject areas where few data are available are identified .

California↗
USGS2019

Assessing spatial and temporal patterns in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities 2012-2018: Grand Teton National Park

Visual cover class data were collected on over 80 species across 30 permanent sampling frames in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in Grand Teton National Park from 2012 to 2018. In this report, temporal and spatial patterns in species composition were assessed and used to inform potential sampling strategies for future monitoring. Specifically, the viability of a reduction in sampling effort was evaluated based on the similarity in species composition within each frame over time and among frames within each year. Using distance-based ordination techniques, we found little to no evidence of differences in species composition within each frame over time. Furthermore, there was little evidence of heterogeneity in species composition among frames within each year, though there was some evidence of differences in composition between the two principle sagebrush community types (sagebrush dry shrubland and sagebrush-bitterbrush) aggregated across frames. Based on these results, we propose that a reduction in sampling effort is viable and suggest a new monitoring schedule.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2021

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic National Parks: 2008-2017 synthesis report

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with the National Park Service (NPS)-North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN), the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe (MIT), Puyallup Tribe of Indians (PTOI), and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) to develop a standard survey protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the abundance, distribution, and population composition of elk on key summer ranges within Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) and Olympic National Park (OLYM). In MORA, surveys were conducted in two trend count areas (TCAs) that correspond with primary summer ranges used by the North Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park to the North, and the South Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park primarily to the South. In OLYM, we defined five TCAs including an Olympic Core TCA (hereafter, Core TCA) that encompasses summer ranges on the flanks of Mount Olympus, and four TCAs that encompass other primary summer ranges throughout the park. The standard protocol allows for estimating aerial survey detection biases and adjusting raw survey counts to account for elk that were likely present but not seen during surveys. Previously, we developed a suite of aerial-bias-correction models for use in estimating aerial detection biases and adjusting raw counts of elk in MORA based on sighting conditions related to elk group size, vegetation density, lighting conditions, elk movement, as well as combinations of these and other factors. The models were based on independent sighting records of elk groups by front-seat and back-seat observer pairs in a helicopter, including detection records of some radio-collared elk groups. Here, we analyze results of the first 10 years of elk monitoring in MORA (2008-2017) and 8 years in OLYM (2008-2015). In a previous report covering surveys conducted from 2008-2011, data were not sufficient to model detection biases of aerial surveys conducted in OLYM; hence, analyses of elk population trends were based on counts adjusted for detection biases in MORA, whereas trends in OLYM were based on raw, unadjusted counts (Griffin et al. 2013, Jenkins et al. 2015). Our objectives for the current summary were to: (1) incorporate additional data to update aerial-bias-correction models previously developed for use in MORA to include corrections for aerial detection bias in both MORA and OLYM, (2) examine trends in elk abundance, distribution, and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges within MORA and OLYM, and (3) estimate effects of seasonal variation and weather on elk abundance and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges in both parks.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks. We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract. Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

California↗
USGS2010

Bison conservation initiative: Bison conservation genetics workshop: Report and recommendations

One of the first outcomes of the Department of the Interior (DOI) Bison Conservation Initiative was the Bison Conservation Genetics Workshop held in Nebraska in September 2008. The workshop brought together scientists from government agencies and non-governmental organizations with professional population geneticists to develop guidance for the genetic management of the federal bison herds. The scientists agreed on the basic tenets of genetic management for the DOI herds and discussed different approaches to meeting those goals. First, the 12 DOI herds are an irreplaceable resource for the long-term conservation of North American plains bison. Most of the herds show low levels of cattle introgression dating from the time when they were saved from extirpation; those herds should not be mixed without careful consideration as to their origin. Herds that show no evidence of cattle ancestry by the current molecular methods are the highest priority for protection from genetic mixing with any other bison herds. Second, despite the fact that most of the herds now managed by the U.S. government were founded with very few bison and have been maintained for many generations at relatively low population sizes, they do not show obvious effects of inbreeding. They have retained significant amounts of genetic variation by the standard measures, heterozygosity and allelic diversity. This may be explained in part by the fact that most of these herds are not remnants of a single population. Third, to preserve genetic variation in federal bison herds over decades and centuries, herds should be managed at a population or metapopulation level of 1,000 animals or more, with a sex ratio that enables competition between breeding bulls. The parks and refuges that currently have bison herds, with the exception of Yellowstone National Park, do not have enough land to support a population of this size. In the short term, it will be important to develop satellite herds to attain population targets, and develop a metapopulation structure between herds. Fourth and finally, the current methods used to evaluate the DOI bison herds, using mitochondrial DNA and a suite of nuclear DNA microsatellites, are highly informative at the herd level. They have confirmed relatedness of herds that we know from historical records have a common origin. They have detected cattle ancestry in most of the herds where it was suspected and have shown some loss of rare alleles. However, they do not sample across the bison genome, and the use of neutral genetic markers as the basis for selection of individual bison—either to breed or move to other herds—would be better supported by more high-resolution molecular methods currently under development.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2018

Landbird population trends in mountain and historical parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network: 2005–2016 synthesis

Long-term monitoring of landbird populations within the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN) began in 2005, with the goal of detecting trends to inform the conservation and management of landbirds and their habitats. Here we use 2005–2016 data from over 3500 point-count stations to report landbird occurrence and trends in each of five NCCN parks, including three national parks in mountain wilderness areas (Mount Rainier National Park, North Cascades National Park Complex and Olympic National Park) and two historical parks (Lewis and Clark National Historical Park and San Juan Island National Historical Park). Recent advances in point-count modeling were applied to characterize population trends for 68 landbird species, including up to 41 species in each park. Fitted models suggest that almost all species exhibited stable or increasing trends over the study period. Notable exceptions were a decline in the Olive-sided Flycatcher in two parks and single-park declines in the Norther Flicker, Hutton’s Vireo, Clark’s Nutcracker, Mountain Chickadee, Wilson’s Warbler and Dark-eyed Junco. Negative effects of precipitation-as-snow were supported in over one-third of our population models. Lower precipitation-as-snow in the mountain parks might have contributed to rising landbird densities during the study period. Population density also varied with elevation in mountain parks, but temporal trends were similar among elevational strata for each species analyzed, suggesting no evidence of elevational range-shifts during this study. These results reinforce recent analyses of the first 10 years of point-count data from the three mountain parks (Ray et al. 2017 a). In the current analysis, models were extended to explore effects of covariates on species detection probability. Negative effects of ambient noise level on detection were supported in several cases, but adding covariates of detection generally did not lead to substantial improvements in model fit. In some cases, model fit was improved by reducing the scope of inference to a portion of the focal region, suggesting important effects of habitat heterogeneity.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2015

Potential application of radiogenic isotopes and geophysical methods to understand the hydrothermal dystem of the Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

Numerous geochemical and geophysical studies have been conducted at Yellowstone National Park to better understand the hydrogeologic processes supporting the thermal features of the Park. This report provides the first 87Sr/86Sr and 234U/238U data for thermal water from the Upper Geyser Basin (UGB) intended to evaluate whether heavy radiogenic isotopes might provide insight to sources of groundwater supply and how they interact over time and space. In addition, this report summarizes previous geophysical studies made at Yellowstone National Park and provides suggestions for applying non-invasive ground and airborne studies to better understand groundwater flow in the subsurface of the UGB. Multiple samples from Old Faithful, Aurum, Grand, Oblong, and Daisy geysers characterized previously for major-ion concentrations and isotopes of water (δ2H, δ18O, and 3H) were analyzed for Sr and U isotopes. Concentrations of dissolved Sr and U are low (4.3–128 ng g-1 Sr and 0.026–0.0008 ng g-1 U); consequently only 87Sr/86Sr data are reported for most samples. Values of 87Sr/86Sr for most geysers remained uniform between April and September 2007, but show large increases in all five geysers between late October 2007 and early April, 2008. By late summer of 2008, 87Sr/86Sr values returned to values similar to those observed a year earlier. Similar patterns are not present in major-ion data measured on the same samples. Furthermore, large geochemical differences documented between geysers are not observed in 87Sr/86Sr data, although smaller differences between sites may be present. Sr-isotope data are consistent with a stratified hydrologic system where water erupted in spring and summer of 2007 and summer of 2008 equilibrated with local intracaldera rhyolite flows at shallower depths. Water erupted between October 2007 and April 2008 includes greater amounts of groundwater that circulated deep enough to acquire a radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr, most likely from Archean basement rocks. Details of how the shallow and deep components interact and mechanisms causing these interactions remain unknown, but the data demonstrate the usefulness of obtaining Sr-isotope data from future sample campaigns. Geophysical methods that would be useful for characterization of the UGB subsurface properties and geothermal system include electromagnetic (EM), gravity, and ambient seismic. A suite of ground-based EM methods could be used in a synergistic combination together with airborne EM surveys to provide data for a range of spatial scales and resolutions. Existing thermal data for the shallow subsurface could be used to relate ground and airborne EM survey data to locations of geothermal fluids near the surface. Gravity surveys would be useful for mapping subsurface density anomalies and possibly monitoring changes in degree of saturation with groundwater. Ambient seismic surveys would be useful for estimating the thickness of unconsolidated deposits that contain the shallow groundwater system. A study that combines radiogenic isotope tracers with geophysical methods has the potential to better characterize the geothermal workings in the UGB. Insights gained could lead to a better understanding of the geothermal system and how Park infrastructure may cause perturbations. Measurements of radiogenic isotopes from multiple geysers and pools in localized areas within the UGB that are coupled with data from geophysical surveys would help refine conceptual models of mixing between deep- and shallow-derived subsurface fluids.

Wyoming↗