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USGS2002

Final report: Initial ecosystem response of salt marshes to ditch plugging and pool creation: Experiments at Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (Maine)

This study evaluates the response of three salt marshes, associated with the Rachel Carson National Wildlife Refuge (Maine), to the practice of ditch plugging. Drainage ditches, originally dug to drain the marsh for mosquito control or to facilitate salt hay farming, are plugged with marsh peat in an effort to impound water upstream of the plug, raise water table levels in the marsh, and increase surface water habitat. At two study sites, Moody Marsh and Granite Point Road Marsh, ditch plugs were installed in spring 2000. Monitoring of hydrology, vegetation, nekton and bird utilization, and marsh development processes was conducted in 1999, before ditch plugging, and then in 2000 and 2001 (all parameters except nekton), after ditch plugging. Each study site had a control marsh that was monitored simultaneously with the plugged marsh, and thus, we employed a BACI study design (before, after, control, impact). A third site, Marshall Point Road Marsh, was plugged in 1998. Monitoring of the plugged and control sites was conducted in 1999 and 2000, with limited monitoring in 2001, thus there was no ?before? plug monitoring. With ditch plugging, water table levels increased toward the marsh surface and the areal extent of standing water increased. Responding to a wetter substrate, a vegetation change from high marsh species (e.g., Spartina patens) to those more tolerant of flooded conditions (e.g., Spartina alterniflora) was noted at two of the three ditch plugged sites. Initial response of the nekton community (fishes and decapod crustaceans) was evaluated by monitoring utilization of salt marsh pools using a 1m2 enclosure trap. In general, nekton species richness, density, and community structure remained unchanged following ditch plugging at the Moody and Granite Point sites. At Marshall Point, species richness and density (number of individuals per m2) were significantly greater in the experimental plugged marsh than the control marsh (<2% of the control marsh was open water habitat vs. 11% of the plugged marsh). The response of birds, categorized as waterfowl & waterbirds, shorebirds & wading birds, gulls & terns, and miscellaneous (raptors, passerines, other), was variable. Following ditch plugging, bird species richness increased at the Granite Point site (1999 pre-plug = 15.4, 2000 post-plug = 26.2, 2001 post-plug = 38.7). Because of a low sample size at Moody Marsh, reliable statements on species richness cannot be made. Density of birds (no. of birds per ha) remained unchanged with ditch plugging at Granite Point Marsh, although there was a strong, but not statistically significant, trend toward increased density. This study only reports on initial responses of marsh functions to ditch plugging. Monitoring should continue at these sites, and perhaps at additional sites, for the next decade or so. A monitoring plan is recommended. Long-term monitoring will include evaluation of salt marsh development processes using SET (surface elevation table) methodology. There is concern, although not confirmed, that as ditch-plugged marshes become wetter and marsh grass production declines their ability to keep pace with sea level rise could be jeopardized. It is suggested that ditch plugging should be considered an experimental marsh management technique. Additional monitoring on the physical and habitat responses of ditch-plugged marshes is required, along with assessments of other techniques aimed at restoring open water habitat to the marsh surface.

Book↗

USGS2022

Adaptive monitoring in support of adaptive management in rangelands

Monitoring supports iterative learning about the effectiveness of management actions, information that can help managers plan future actions, facilitate decision-making, and improve outcomes. Adaptive monitoring is the evolution of a monitoring program in response to new management questions; new or changing environmental or socioeconomic conditions, improved monitoring methods, models, and tools; and experience implementing the monitoring program. Adaptive monitoring is connected to research and management through the exchange of data; analytical, methodological, and technological developments; information; and understanding. We review recent advances in adaptive monitoring and discuss new opportunities for both the research and management communities to improve monitoring in the years ahead.

Rangelands↗

USGS2013

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists, geophysicists, and land managers regarding geologic hazards in the Southwest.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2002

Technical guidelines for the implementation of the Advanced National Seismic System

The Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) is a major national initiative led by the US Geological Survey that serves the needs of the earthquake monitoring, engineering, and research communities as well as national, state, and local governments, emergency response organizations, and the general public. Legislation authorizing the ANSS was passed in 2000, and low levels of funding for planning and initial purchases of new seismic instrumentation have been appropriated beginning in FY2000. When fully operational, the ANSS will be an advanced monitoring system (modern digital seismographs and accelerographs, communications networks, data collection and processing centers, and well-trained personnel) distributed across the United States that operates with high performance standards, gathers critical technical data, and effectively provides timely and reliable earthquake products, information, and services to meet the Nation’s needs. The ANSS will automatically broadcast timely and authoritative products describing the occurrence of earthquakes, earthquake source properties, the distribution of ground shaking, and, where feasible, broadcast early warnings and alerts for the onset of strong ground shaking. Most importantly, the ANSS will provide earthquake data, derived products, and information to the public, emergency responders, officials, engineers, educators, researchers, and other ANSS partners rapidly and in forms that are useful for their needs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Ten practical questions to improve data quality

High-quality rangeland data are critical to supporting adaptive management. However, concrete, cost-saving steps to ensure data quality are often poorly defined and understood. Data quality is more than data management. Ensuring data quality requires 1) clear communication among team members; 2) appropriate sample design; 3) training of data collectors, data managers, and data users; 4) observer and sensor calibration; and 5) active data management. Quality assurance and quality control are ongoing processes to help rangeland managers and scientists identify, prevent, and correct errors in past, current, and future monitoring data. We present 10 guiding data quality questions to help managers and scientists identify appropriate workflows to improve data quality by 1) describing the data ecosystem, 2) creating a data quality plan, 3) identifying roles and responsibilities, 4) building data collection and data management workflows, 5) training and calibrating data collectors, 6) detecting and correcting errors, and 7) describing sources of variability. Iteratively improving rangeland data quality is a key part of adaptive monitoring and rangeland data collection. All members of the rangeland community are invited to participate in ensuring rangeland data quality.

Rangelands↗

USGS2015

Development of a grazing monitoring program for Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado

National parks in the United States face the difficult task of managing natural resources within park boundaries that are influenced to a large degree by historical land uses or by forces outside of the park’s protection and mandate. Among the many challenges faced by parks is management of wildlife populations that occupy larger landscapes than individual park units but that concentrate within park lands both seasonally and opportunistically. Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in south-central Colorado is currently developing an Ungulate Management Plan to address management of elk and bison populations within the park. Execution of the Ungulate Management Plan will require monitoring and assessment of habitat conditions in areas that appear sensitive to ungulate use or heavily used by elk and bison. Several sources of information on the various habitats within the park and their use and response to foraging elk and bison exist from recent and on-going research in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve as well as from studies in other regions of the Intermountain West. All of this data can be used to inform the planning process. This report provides background on vegetation types that make up the primary bison and elk ranges in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and on the potential effects of ungulate grazing and browsing in these specific vegetation communities (both locally and regionally). The report also provides a review of the elements necessary to develop a long-term monitoring program for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve that addresses both the responses to ungulate herbivory seen in important habitats in the park and the amount and patterns of ungulate habitat use.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

CRMS vegetation analytical team framework: Methods for collection, development, and use of vegetation response variables

This document identifies the main objectives of the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) vegetation analytical team, which are to provide (1) collection and development methods for vegetation response variables and (2) the ways in which these response variables will be used to evaluate restoration project effectiveness. The vegetation parameters (that is, response variables) collected in CRMS and other coastal restoration projects funded under the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) are identified, and the field collection methods for these parameters are summarized. Existing knowledge on community and plant responses to changes in environmental drivers (for example, flooding and salinity) from published literature and from the CRMS and CWPPRA monitoring dataset are used to develop a suite of indices to assess wetland condition in coastal Louisiana. Two indices, the floristic quality index (FQI) and a productivity index, are described for herbaceous and forested vegetation. The FQI for herbaceous vegetation is tested with a long-term dataset from a CWPPRA marsh creation project. Example graphics for this index are provided and discussed. The other indices, an FQI for forest vegetation (that is, trees and shrubs) and productivity indices for herbaceous and forest vegetation, are proposed but not tested. New response variables may be added or current response variables removed as data become available and as our understanding of restoration success indicators develops. Once indices are fully developed, each will be used by the vegetation analytical team to assess and evaluate CRMS/CWPPRA project and program effectiveness. The vegetation analytical teams plan to summarize their results in the form of written reports and/or graphics and present these items to CRMS Federal and State sponsors, restoration project managers, landowners, and other data users for their input.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Field calibration and validation of remote-sensing surveys

The Optical Collection Suite (OCS) is a ground-truth sampling system designed to perform in situ measurements that help calibrate and validate optical remote-sensing and swath-sonar surveys for mapping and monitoring coastal ecosystems and ocean planning. The OCS system enables researchers to collect underwater imagery with real-time feedback, measure the spectral response, and quantify the water clarity with simple and relatively inexpensive instruments that can be hand-deployed from a small vessel. This article reviews the design and performance of the system, based on operational and logistical considerations, as well as the data requirements to support a number of coastal science and management projects. The OCS system has been operational since 2009 and has been used in several ground-truth missions that overlapped with airborne lidar bathymetry (ALB), hyperspectral imagery (HSI), and swath-sonar bathymetric surveys in the Gulf of Maine, southwest Alaska, and the US Virgin Islands (USVI). Research projects that have used the system include a comparison of backscatter intensity derived from acoustic (multibeam/interferometric sonars) versus active optical (ALB) sensors, ALB bottom detection, and seafloor characterization using HSI and ALB.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

An initial investigation of multidimensional flow and transverse mixing characteristics of the Ohio River near Cincinnati, Ohio

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models were applied to a 34-mile reach of the Ohio River from Cincinnati, Ohio, upstream to Meldahl Dam near Neville, Ohio. The hydrodynamic model was based on the generalized finite-element hydrodynamic code RMA2 to simulate depth-averaged velocities and flow depths. The generalized water-quality transport code RMA4 was applied to simulate the transport of vertically mixed, water-soluble constituents that have a density similar to that of water. Boundary conditions for hydrodynamic simulations included water levels at the U.S. Geological Survey water-level gaging station near Cincinnati, Ohio, and flow estimates based on a gate rating at Meldahl Dam. Flows estimated on the basis of the gate rating were adjusted with limited flow-measurement data to more nearly reflect current conditions. An initial calibration of the hydrodynamic model was based on data from acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys and water-level information. These data provided flows, horizontal water velocities, water levels, and flow depths needed to estimate hydrodynamic parameters related to channel resistance to flow and eddy viscosity. Similarly, dye concentration measurements from two dye-injection sites on each side of the river were used to develop initial estimates of transport parameters describing mixing and dye-decay characteristics needed for the transport model. A nonlinear regression-based approach was used to estimate parameters in the hydrodynamic and transport models. Parameters describing channel resistance to flow (Manning’s “n”) were estimated in areas of deep and shallow flows as 0.0234, and 0.0275, respectively. The estimated RMA2 Peclet number, which is used to dynamically compute eddy-viscosity coefficients, was 38.3, which is in the range of 15 to 40 that is typically considered appropriate. Resulting hydrodynamic simulations explained 98.8 percent of the variability in depth-averaged flows, 90.0 percent of the variability in water levels, 93.5 percent of the variability in flow depths, and 92.5 percent of the variability in velocities. Estimates of the water-quality-transport-model parameters describing turbulent mixing characteristics converged to different values for the two dye-injection reaches. For the Big Indian Creek dye-injection study, an RMA4 Peclet number of 37.2 was estimated, which was within the recommended range of 15 to 40, and similar to the RMA2 Peclet number. The estimated dye-decay coefficient was 0.323. Simulated dye concentrations explained 90.2 percent of the variations in measured dye concentrations for the Big Indian Creek injection study. For the dye-injection reach starting downstream from Twelvemile Creek, however, an RMA4 Peclet number of 173 was estimated, which is far outside the recommended range. Simulated dye concentrations were similar to measured concentration distributions at the first four transects downstream from the dye-injection site that were considered vertically mixed. Farther downstream, however, simulated concentrations did not match the attenuation of maximum concentrations or cross-channel transport of dye that were measured. The difficulty of determining a consistent RMA4 Peclet was related to the two-dimension model assumption that velocity distributions are closely approximated by their depth-averaged values. Analysis of velocity data showed significant variations in velocity direction with depth in channel reaches with curvature. Channel irregularities (including curvatures, depth irregularities, and shoreline variations) apparently produce transverse currents that affect the distribution of constituents, but are not fully accounted for in a two-dimensional model. The two-dimensional flow model, using channel resistance to flow parameters of 0.0234 and 0.0275 for deep and shallow areas, respectively, and an RMA2 Peclet number of 38.3, and the RMA4 transport model with a Peclet number of 37.2, may have utility for emergency-planning purposes. Emergency-response efforts would be enhanced by continuous streamgaging records downstream from Meldahl Dam, real-time water-quality monitoring, and three-dimensional modeling. Decay coefficients are constituent specific.

Kentucky, Ohio↗

USGS2013

Comparison of bird community indices for riparian restoration planning and monitoring

The use of a bird community index that characterizes ecosystem integrity is very attractive to conservation planners and habitat managers, particularly in the absence of any single focal species. In riparian areas of the western USA, several attempts at arriving at a community index signifying a functioning riparian bird community have been made previously, mostly resorting to expert opinions or national conservation rankings for species weights. Because extensive local and regional bird monitoring data were available for Nevada, we were able to develop three different indices that were derived empirically, rather than from expert opinion. We formally examined the use of three species weighting schemes in comparison with simple species richness, using different definitions of riparian species assemblage size, for the purpose of predicting community response to changes in vegetation structure from riparian restoration. For the three indices, species were weighted according to the following criteria: (1) the degree of riparian habitat specialization based on regional data, (2) the relative conservation ranking of landbird species, and (3) the degree to which a species is under-represented compared to the regional species pool for riparian areas. To evaluate the usefulness of these indices for habitat restoration planning and monitoring, we modeled them using habitat variables that are expected to respond to riparian restoration efforts, using data from 64 sampling sites in the Walker River Basin in Nevada and California. We found that none of the species-weighting schemes performed any better as an index for evaluating overall habitat condition than using species richness alone as a community index. Based on our findings, the use of a fairly complete list of 30–35 riparian specialists appears to be the best indicator group for predicting the response of bird communities to the restoration of riparian vegetation.

Nevada↗

USGS2013

Status and trends monitoring of the mainstem Columbia River: sample frame development and review of programs relevant to the development of an integrated approach to monitoring

Implementing an Integrated Status and Trends Monitoring program (ISTM) for the mainstem Columbia River will help identify trends in important natural resources and help us understand the long-term collective effects of management actions. In this report, we present progress towards the completion of a stepwise process that will facilitate the development of an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River. We discuss planning and regulatory documents that can be used to identify monitoring goals and objectives and present existing monitoring and research activities that should be considered as the development of a Columbia River ISTM proceeds. We also report progress towards the development of sample frames for the Columbia and Snake Rivers and their floodplains. The sample frames were formulated using Digital Elevation Models (DEM’s) of the river channel and upland areas and a Generalized Random-Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) algorithm for an area based resource to generate “master sample(s).” Working with the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP) we facilitated the transfer of the sample frames to the PNAMP “Monitoring Sample Designer” tool. We then discuss aspects of response and survey designs as they pertain to the formulation of a mainstem Columbia River ISTM. As efforts to formulate an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River proceed, practitioners should utilize the extensive literature describing the planning and implementation of fish and wildlife mitigation and recovery efforts in the Columbia River Basin. While we make progress towards establishing an ISTM framework, considerable work needs to be done to formulate an ISTM program for the mainstem Columbia River. Long-term monitoring programs have been established for other large rivers systems; scientists that have experience planning, implementing, and maintaining large river monitoring efforts such as those in the Colorado, Illinois, and Mississippi Rivers should be consulted and involved as efforts proceed.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2016

Vegetative response to water availability on the San Carlos Apache Reservation

On the San Carlos Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona, U.S.A., vegetation types such as ponderosa pine forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, and grasslands have significant ecological, cultural, and economic value for the Tribe. This value extends beyond the tribal lands and across the Western United States. Vegetation across the Southwestern United States is susceptible to drought conditions and fluctuating water availability. Remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to measure and monitor spatial and temporal vegetative response to fluctuating water availability conditions. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index II (MSAVI 2 ) to measure the condition of three dominant vegetation types (ponderosa pine forest, woodland, and grassland) in response to two fluctuating environmental variables: precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study period covered 2002 through 2014 and focused on a region within the San Carlos Apache Reservation. We determined that grassland and woodland had a similar moderate to strong, year-round, positive relationship with precipitation as well as with summer SPEI. This suggests that these vegetation types respond negatively to drought conditions and are more susceptible to initial precipitation deficits. Ponderosa pine forest had a comparatively weaker relationship with monthly precipitation and summer SPEI, indicating that it is more buffered against short-term drought conditions. This research highlights the response of multiple, dominant vegetation types to seasonal and inter-annual water availability. This research demonstrates that multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be an effective tool for the large scale detection of vegetation response to adverse impacts from climate change and support potential management practices such as increased monitoring and management of drought-affected areas. Different vegetation types displayed various responses to water availability, further highlighting the need for individual management plans for forest and woodland, especially considering the projected drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. and other arid or semi-arid regions around the world.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Louisiana and Landsat

Louisiana holds a unique historical, economic, and cultural position in the national consciousness. Its off-shore oil operations help fuel the U.S. economy. The Port of South Louisiana is the busiest in the United States by cargo volume; the nearby Port of New Orleans is the sixth busiest. The former French and Spanish colony served as a key connection to the Caribbean long before U.S. independence, and Louisiana’s multinational effects soon melded into a Creole culture that had an outsized effect on America. That heritage remains a powerful draw for the tourism industry in Louisiana. Gulf Coast breezes carry the aromas of tropical flowers, sweet beignets, and savory crawfish through the 13 colorful blocks of New Orleans’ French Quarter. Interwoven with the sounds of jazz, rock, country music, and zydeco, the city’s charms delight more than 18 million visitors each year. The proximity of the Gulf Coast and the city’s elevation, however—just 6.5 feet above sea level—also offer an ominous warning of the ever-present threat of climate change and natural disaster. Hurricane Katrina battered New Orleans in 2005, an incident tied to more than 1,800 deaths that marks one of the most notorious U.S. weather-related tragedies in the 21st century. Environmental changes have amplified threats from tropical storms. Through more frequent and powerful storms, sea level rise threatens low-lying areas such as Lake Charles and creates unpredictable weather patterns that threaten the cities and agricultural operations to the north. Landsat data offer rich information that can aid in early warning, disaster response, and the monitoring of recovery from natural disasters. Its historic, unparalleled 50-year archive of repeat Earth observations also serves to guide resiliency plans and feeds modeling that can help States like Louisiana prepare for coming coastal and inland change. Here are just a few examples of how Landsat has been used to study and understand Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1956

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Audubon Field Notes↗

USGS1956

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Audubon Field Notes↗

USGS2022

Getting ahead of flash drought: From early warning to early action

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society (BAMS)↗

USGS2024

Realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment with application to offshore renewable energy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researches the biological diversity and distribution of species to support management, conservation, and resource use decisions. USGS scientists advance detection and monitoring technologies to assess changes in fish and wildlife populations, biodiversity, and the health of ecosystems. The United States is planning to install 30 gigawatts of offshore marine and wind energy by 2030. However, the effects on fish and wildlife and their habitats are not well understood. The USGS is a leader in the field of eDNA technologies and has helped advance robotic eDNA samplers, has extensive experience working in the offshore environment, and has developed novel and actionable statistical methods and standards for eDNA monitoring applications. This fact sheet presents key eDNA research and development advances needed for realizing the potential of eDNA biodiversity monitoring tools in the marine environment and applying eDNA monitoring to offshore renewable energy development. New and cost-effective tools for measuring changes in biodiversity in response to offshore renewable energy development can help to inform natural resource management and project planning and permitting decisions.

Fact Sheet↗