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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2013

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada↗
USGS1978

A progress report on estuary modeling by the finite-element method

Various schemes are investigated for finite-element modeling of two-dimensional surface-water flows. The first schemes investigated combine finite-element spatial discretization with split-step time stepping schemes that have been found useful in finite-difference computations. Because of the large number of numerical integrations performed in space and the large sparse matrices solved, these finite-element schemes were found to be economically uncompetitive with finite-difference schemes. A very promising leapfrog scheme is proposed which, when combined with a novel very fast spatial integration procedure, eliminates the need to solve any matrices at all. Additional problems attacked included proper propagation of waves and proper specification of the normal-flow boundary condition. This report indicates work in progress and does not come to a definitive conclusion as to the best approach for finite-element modeling of surface-water problems. The results presented herein represent findings obtained between September 1973 and July 1976.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1995

Arctic delta processes: A computer animation and paper models

This report shows, by means of a computer animation and paper models, how deltas are affected by fresh and salt water currents, topography and location. The report is intended to help students and others visualize how ice shapes and forms a delta. By studying the animations and the paper models, students will come to understand why deltas have different shapes and different interior structures. The diskette version has an animation of arctic delta processes. While both the diskette and paper versions have teacher guide and paper models.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

Alaska↗
USGS1999

Age, double porosity, and simple reaction modifications for the MOC3D ground-water transport model

This report documents modifications for the MOC3D ground-water transport model to simulate (a) ground-water age transport; (b) double-porosity exchange; and (c) simple but flexible retardation, decay, and zero-order growth reactions. These modifications are incorporated in MOC3D version 3.0. MOC3D simulates the transport of a single solute using the method-of-characteristics numerical procedure. The age of ground water, that is the time since recharge to the saturated zone, can be simulated using the transport model with an additional source term of unit strength, corresponding to the rate of aging. The output concentrations of the model are in this case the ages at all locations in the model. Double porosity generally refers to a separate immobile-water phase within the aquifer that does not contribute to ground-water flow but can affect solute transport through diffusive exchange. The solute mass exchange rate between the flowing water in the aquifer and the immobile-water phase is the product of the concentration difference between the two phases and a linear exchange coefficient. Conceptually, double porosity can approximate the effects of dead-end pores in a granular porous media, or matrix diffusion in a fractured-rock aquifer. Options are provided for decay and zero-order growth reactions within the immobile-water phase. The simple reaction terms here extend the original model, which included decay and retardation. With these extensions, (a) the retardation factor can vary spatially within each model layer, (b) the decay rate coefficient can vary spatially within each model layer and can be different for the dissolved and sorbed phases, and (c) a zero-order growth reaction is added that can vary spatially and can be different in the dissolved and sorbed phases. The decay and growth reaction terms also can change in time to account for changing geochemical conditions during transport. The report includes a description of the theoretical basis of the model, a detailed description of input requirements and output options, and the results of model testing and evaluation. The model tests illustrate use of these modifications and demonstrate that accurate solutions can be obtained for these simple cases. Two test cases have no dispersion, illustrating the suitability of this method-of-characteristics model for simulation of advection-dominated transport in ground water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1960

Preliminary report on electromagnetic model studies

More than 70 resopnse curves for various models have been obtained using the slingram and turam electromagnetic methods. Results show that for the slingram method, horizontal co-planar coils are usually more sensitive than vertical, co-axial or vertical, co-planar coils. The shape of the anomaly usually is simpler for the vertical coils.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

International summit on integrated environmental modeling

This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Reston, VA, on 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universities and companies together with international organizations convened over a number of years, including: the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) workshop on Collaborative Approaches to Integrated Modeling: Better Integration for Better Decisionmaking (December, 2008); the AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco (December 2009); and the International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software (July 2010). From these meetings there is now recognition that many separate communities are involved in developing IEM. The aim of the Summit was to bring together two key groupings, the US and Europe, with the intention of creating a community open to all.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1996

A three-dimensional method-of-characteristics solute-transport model (MOC3D)

This report presents a model, MOC3D, that simulates three-dimensional solute transport in flowing ground water. The model computes changes in concentration of a single dissolved chemical constituent over time that are caused by advective transport, hydrodynamic dispersion (including both mechanical dispersion and diffusion), mixing (or dilution) from fluid sources, and mathematically simple chemical reactions (including linear sorption, which is represented by a retardation factor, and decay). The transport model is integrated with MODFLOW, a three-dimensional ground-water flow model that uses implicit finite-difference methods to solve the transient flow equation. MOC3D uses the method of characteristics to solve the transport equation on the basis of the hydraulic gradients computed with MODFLOW for a given time step. This implementation of the method of characteristics uses particle tracking to represent advective transport and explicit finite-difference methods to calculate the effects of other processes. However, the explicit procedure has several stability criteria that may limit the size of time increments for solving the transport equation; these are automatically determined by the program. For improved efficiency, the user can apply MOC3D to a subgrid of the primary MODFLOW grid that is used to solve the flow equation. However, the transport subgrid must have uniform grid spacing along rows and columns. The report includes a description of the theoretical basis of the model, a detailed description of input requirements and output options, and the results of model testing and evaluation. The model was evaluated for several problems for which exact analytical solutions are available and by benchmarking against other numerical codes for selected complex problems for which no exact solutions are available. These test results indicate that the model is very accurate for a wide range of conditions and yields minimal numerical dispersion for advection-dominated problems. Mass-balance errors are generally less than 10 percent, and tend to decrease and stabilize with time.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Simulation of flow and habitat conditions under ice, Cache la Poudre River - January 2006

The U.S. Forest Service authorizes the occupancy and use of Forest Service lands by various projects, including water storage facilities, under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act. Federal Land Policy and Management Act permits can be renewed at the end of their term. The U.S. Forest Service analyzes the environmental effects for the initial issuance or renewal of a permit and the terms and conditions (for example, mitigations plans) contained in the permit for the facilities. The U.S. Forest Service is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) to determine the conditions for the occupancy and use for Long Draw Reservoir on National Forest System administered lands. The scope of the EIS includes evaluating current operations and effects to fish habitat of an ongoing winter release of 0.283 m3 /s (10 ft3 /s) from headwater reservoirs as part of a previously issued permit. The field conditions observed during this study included this release. The U.S. Forest Service entered into an interagency agreement (05-IA-11021000-030) with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center to perform analysis of fish habitat and flow relationships in the Cache la Poudre River during winter ice-over conditions using a twodimensional hydrodynamic model. The U.S. Forest Service selected the Fort Collins Science Center for this task because of their expertise in developing two-dimensional hydraulic models for habitat modeling applications. This report transmits model results to the U.S. Forest Service to analyze the effects of alternative flow scenarios at a site on the mainstem Cache la Poudre River in Larimer County, Colorado, near Kinikinik (40° 42' 44.16" N. lat, 105° 44' 30.70" W. log), as shown in figure 1. It will be used in pending environmental analyses and decisions for the occupancy and use of the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest by water storage facilities. The water management scenarios of interest in this study are related to releasing water from Chambers and Barnes Meadows Reservoirs, based on the assumption that winter flow augmentation can increase potential fish habitat. Figure 2 shows the relationship between Chambers, Barnes Meadows, and Long Draw Reservoirs. At the time this study was proposed, existing flow simulation results showed that the channel constraints imposed by existing artificial low-head dikes would have little or no effect on the hydrodynamics of the river at the low flow levels that were to be evaluated. The Kinikinik study site contains deep pools, riffles, and runs. This diversity of habitat types made it ideal for assessing the effects of altered flow on fish habitat under ice in the main stem Cache la Poudre River. Thus, the Kinikinik site was selected for this study of winter habitat conditions. The preexisting topographic and hydrologic data collected at this site enabled data collection efforts for this study to focus on describing streamflow and ice cover during the winter months. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, River2D (Steffler and Blackburn, 2002), was used to simulate flow conditions under the ice cover that was observed January 24, 2006. The objectives of this study are (1) to describe the extent and thickness of ice cover, (2) simulate depth and velocity under ice at the study site for observed and reduced flows, and (3) to quantify fish habitat in this portion of the mainstem Cache la Poudre River for the current winter release schedule as well as for similar conditions without the 0.283 m 3 /s winter release.

Colorado↗
USGS1981

One-dimensional reservoir-lake temperature and dissolved oxygen model

This report describes and documents a one-dimensional computer model that predicts dissolved-oxygen and temperature profiles in a lake or reservoir. Downstream release dissolved-oxygen concentrations and temperatures also are computed based on a user-specified outflow withdrawal elevation. The model can, therefore, be used to compare top-draw versus bottom-draw outlet configuration effects on downstream dissolved-oxygen and temperature conditions. The dissolved-oxygen and temperature profiles are computed for a conceptual vertical water column located at the deepest point in the lake or reservoir.. The water column is divided into a series of uniform thickness horizontal layers for computation purposes. The model operates on a daily simulation interval, with summary output given for each day and detailed depth profiles printed on user-specified days. Model options allow the simulation of 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, sediment oxygen demand, and the density current effects of inflowing suspended sediment. The model is a modification of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's "WESTEX" model number 722-F5-E1011. The user-specified withdrawal elevation, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, sediment oxygen demand, and suspended sediment simulation capabilities were not present in the earlier "WESTEX" model. The model is capable of simulating a stratified reservoir pool environment. This reservoir-lake model is most applicable to preliminary or reconnaissance studies of a proposed impoundment. Other more complex and accurate models exist to model existing lakes or reservoirs where onsite data can be collected.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Preliminary report on deposit models for sand and gravel in the Cache la Poudre River valley

The stratigraphy, sedimentary features, and physical characteristics of gravel deposits in the Cache la Poudre River valley were studied to establish geologic models for these deposits. Because most of the gravel mined in the valley is beneath the low terraces and floodplain, the quality of these deposits for aggregate was studied in detail at eight sites in a 25.5-mile reach between Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado. Aggregate quality was determined by field and laboratory measurements on samples collected under a consistent sampling plan. The Broadway terrace is underlain by Pleistocene alluvium and, at some places, by fine-grained wind-blown deposits. The Piney Creek terrace, low terraces, and floodplain are primarily underlain by Holocene alluvium. Pleistocene alluvium may underlie these terraces at isolated locations along the river. Gravels beneath the Piney Creek terrace, low terraces, and floodplain are divisible into two units that are poorly distinguishable at the upstream end of the study area, but are readily distinguishable about 7 miles downstream. Where distinguished, the two gravel units are separated by a sharp, locally erosional, contact. The upper gravel is probably of Holocene age, but the lower gravel is considered to be Holocene and Pleistocene. The primary variation in particle size of the gravels beneath the floodplain and low terraces of the Cache la Poudre River valley is the downstream decrease in the proportion of particles measuring 3/4 inch and larger. Above Fort Collins, about 60 pct of the gravel collects on the 3/4 inch sieve, whereas about 50 pct of gravel collects on the same sieve size at Greeley. For 1.5-inch sieves, the corresponding values are about 50 pct for Fort Collins and only about 30 pct for Greeley. Local differences in particle size and sorting between the upper and lower gravel units were observed in the field, but only the coarsest particle sizes appear to have been concentrated in the lower unit. Field measurements of aggregate quality, pebble lithology, and shape show little significant downstream variation. Pebble lithology is about 25 percent granite; 48 percent pegmatite; 5-7 percent each of gneiss, quartz, and quartzite; and minor amounts of diabase, schist, volcanic porphyry, and sandstone. Among the rock types, only the volcanic porphyries might be reactive with Portland cement. Pebble shape is dominantly equidimensional with a tendency to form thick, disc-shaped particles. Disc-shaped and spherical particles comprise about 39 percent and 31 percent of the pebble-size fraction, respectively. Rod and blade shapes comprise about 18 and 12 percent of the pebble-size fraction, respectively. The relatively large proportion of equidimensional particles in the Cache la Poudre may be due to the small proportion of layered gneiss in gravel. Pebbles having axial ratios less than 0.5, which might be structurally weak, are rare. The two gravel units show subtle local differences and evidence for derivation of the younger gravel from the older gravel. At many sites, the upper gravel unit tends to contain more quartz plus quartzite, has poorer physical quality, and contains more angular pebbles than the lower gravel. Weathering, followed by transport in the river, might be expected to concentrate quartz and quartzite, degrade physical quality, and break pebbles into angular fragments. This conclusion is consistent with local evidence of an erosional contact between the two gravel units.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Documentation of UCODE: A computer code for universal inverse modeling

This report documents the computer program UCODE, which performs inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, using nonlinear regression. Any application model or set of models can be used; the only requirement is that they have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files and that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits. Application models can include pre-processors and post-processors as well as models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical, and so on), making UCODE extremely powerful. An estimated parameter can be a quantity that appears in the input files of the application model(s), or that can be used in conjunction with user-defined functions to calculate a quantity that appears in the input files. Observations to be matched in the regression can be any quantity for which a simulated equivalent value can be produced, and simulated equivalent values are calculated using values that appear in the application model output files and a set of additive and multiplicative functions. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be included in the regression. The nonlinear regression problem is solved by minimizing a weighted least- squares objective function with respect to the parameter values using a modified Gauss-Newton method. Sensitivities needed for the method are calculated approximately by forward or central differences, and problems and solutions related to this approximation are discussed. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1) diagnosing inadequate data and identifying parameters that probably cannot be estimated; (2) evaluating estimated parameter values; (3) evaluating the model representation of the actual processes; and (4) quantifying the likely uncertainty of model simulated values. UCODE is intended for use on any computer operating system: it consists of algorithms programmed in perl, a freeware language designed for text manipulation, and Fortran90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Western U.S. deformation models for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in the 2014 NSHM, as well as hundreds of new faults considered as active sources for the 2023 NSHM. These data are interpreted by four geodetic models of deformation that estimate fault slip rates and their uncertainties together with off‐fault moment release rates. Key innovations in the 2023 NSHM relative to past practice include (1) the addition of two new (in addition to two existing) deformation models, (2) the revision and expansion of the geologic slip rate database, (3) accounting for fault creep through development of a creep‐rate model that is employed by the four deformation models, and (4) accounting for time‐dependent earthquake‐cycle effects through development of viscoelastic models of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas fault and the Cascadia subduction zone. The effort includes development of a geologic deformation model that complements the four geodetic models. The current deformation models provide a new assessment of outstanding discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates, at the same time highlighting the need for both geologic and geodetic slip rates to robustly inform the earthquake rate model.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS1998

An implicit dispersive transport algorithm for the US Geological Survey MOC3D solute-transport model

This report documents an extension to the U.S. Geological Survey MOC3D transport model that incorporates an implicit-in-time difference approximation for the dispersive transport equation, including source/sink terms. The original MOC3D transport model (Version 1) uses the method of characteristics to solve the transport equation on the basis of the velocity field. The original MOC3D solution algorithm incorporates particle tracking to represent advective processes and an explicit finite-difference formulation to calculate dispersive fluxes. The new implicit procedure eliminates several stability criteria required for the previous explicit formulation. This allows much larger transport time increments to be used in dispersion-dominated problems. The decoupling of advective and dispersive transport in MOC3D, however, is unchanged. With the implicit extension, the MOC3D model is upgraded to Version 2. A description of the numerical method of the implicit dispersion calculation, the data-input requirements and output options, and the results of simulator testing and evaluation are presented. Version 2 of MOC3D was evaluated for the same set of problems used for verification of Version 1. These test results indicate that the implicit calculation of Version 2 matches the accuracy of Version 1, yet is more efficient than the explicit calculation for transport problems that are characterized by a grid Peclet number less than about 1.0.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1978

Unsteady solute-transport simulation in streamflow using a finite-difference model

This report documents a rather simple, general purpose, one-dimensional, one-parameter, mass-transport model for field use. The model assumes a well-mixed conservative solute that may be coming from an unsteady source and is moving in unsteady streamflow. The quantity of solute being transported is in the units of concentration. Results are reported as such. An implicit finite-difference technique is used to solve the mass transport equation. It consists of creating a tridiagonal matrix and using the Thomas algorithm to solve the matrix for the unknown concentrations at the new time step. The computer program pesented is designed to compute the concentration of a water-quality constituent at any point and at any preselected time in a one-dimensional stream. The model is driven by the inflowing concentration of solute at the upstream boundary and is influenced by the solute entering the stream from tributaries and lateral ground-water inflow and from a source or sink. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗