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USGS2001

Water resources of the Lake Traverse Reservation, South and North Dakota, and Roberts County, South Dakota

In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sisseton-Wahpeton Sioux Tribe; Roberts County; and the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Geological Survey Program, began a 6-year investigation to describe and quantify the water resources of the area within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County. Roberts County is located in extreme northeastern South Dakota, and the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation encompasses much of Roberts County and parts of Marshall, Day, Codington, and Grant Counties in South Dakota and parts of Richland and Sargent Counties in southeast North Dakota. This report includes descriptions of the quantity, quality, and availability of surface and ground water, the extent of the major glacial and bedrock aquifers and named outwash groups, and surface- and ground-water uses within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County. The surface-water resources within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County include rivers, streams, lakes, and wetlands. The Wild Rice and Bois de Sioux Rivers are tributaries of the Red River within the Souris-Red-Rainy River Basin; the Little Minnesota, Jorgenson, and North Fork Whetstone Rivers are tributaries of the Minnesota River within the Upper Mississippi River Basin, and the James and Big Sioux Rivers are tributaries within the Missouri River Basin. Several of the larger lakes within the study area have been developed for recreation, while many of the smaller lakes and wetlands are used for livestock watering or as wildlife production areas. Statistical summaries are presented for the water-quality data of six selected streams within the study area, and the dominant chemical species are listed for 17 selected lakes within the study area. The glacial history of the study area has led to a rather complex system of glacial aquifers. The boundaries of 11 aquifers and 6 named outwash groups were delineated based on hydrogeologic cross sections, water levels, and water-quality similarities/dissimilarities. The glacial aquifers include Coteau Lakes system, Big Sioux, Alta-mont, Revillo, James, Veblen system, Spiritwood, Hankinson, Rosholt, Milnor Channel, and Fairmount; the bedrock aquifer included in this report is the Dakota. Named outwash groups include the Prairie Coteau, Lonesome Lake, Marday, Eden, Roslyn, and Wilmot. A summary of the character-istics of each of the major aquifers and outwash groups and a summary of selected chemical analyses for each aquifer and outwash group are presented. All aquifers and outwash groups in the study area have either moderately hard or very hard water and are considered fresh to slightly saline. One or more water samples from some of the aquifers and outwash groups have a constituent that was above the recommended or mandatory limit for drinking water. Most aquifers and outwash groups have dissolved solids and sulfate contents above the recommended levels of 500 and 250 mg/L (milligrams per liter), respectively. The Dakota aquifer was the only one to have a mean chloride concentration above the recommended level of 250 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations greater than the mandatory limit of 10 mg/L were found in the Big Sioux aquifer and the Coteau Lakes and Veblen aquifer systems. Concentrations of arsenic greater than 10 ?g/L (micrograms per liter) were found in the Coteau Lakes and Veblen aquifer systems, and in the Rosholt and Fairmount aquifers. Municipalities and rural water systems currently provide most of the water used in the study area-nearly all of it from ground-water sources. Surface-water use is limited to livestock watering. About 55 percent of the total water used in Roberts County is for domestic purposes, with most domestic users served by a public supply system. Irrigation accounts for about 10 percent of the total water used. All

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS1999

Gravel sediment routing from widespread, low-intensity landscape disturbance, Current River basin, Missouri

During the last 160 years, land-use changes in the Ozarks have had the potential to cause widespread, low-intensity delivery of excess amounts of gravel-sized sediment to stream channels. Previous studies have indicated that this excess gravel bedload is moving in wave-like forms through Ozarks drainage basins. The longitudinal, areal distribution of gravel bars along 160 km of the Current River, Missouri, was evaluated to determine the relative effects of valley-scale controls, tributary basin characteristics, and lagged sediment transport in creating areas of gravel accumulations. The longitudinal distribution of gravel-bar area shows a broad scale wave-like form with increases in gravel-bar area weakly associated with tributary junctions. Secondary peaks of gravel area with 1·8–4·1 km spacing (disturbance reaches) are superimposed on the broad form. Variations in valley width explain some, but not all, of the short-spacing variation in gravel-bar area. Among variables describing tributary drainage basin morphometry, present-day land use and geologic characteristics, only drainage area and road density relate even weakly to gravel-bar areal inventories. A simple, channel network-based sediment routing model shows that many of the features of the observed longitudinal gravel distribution can be replicated by uniform transport of sediment from widespread disturbances through a channel network. These results indicate that lagged sediment transport may have a dominant effect on the synoptic spatial distribution of gravel in Ozarks streams; present-day land uses are only weakly associated with present-day gravel inventories; and valley-scale characteristics have secondary controls on gravel accumulations in disturbance reaches.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

USGS1954

Water levels prior to January 1, 1954 in observation wells, in Nebraska: part 1. Adams through Howard Counties

During the fall of 1945, as part of the program for the development of the resources of the Missouri River basin, the United States Geological Survey began a new series of groundwater investigation in Nebraska. Those studies were coordinated with the already existing program of ground-water studies that was begun in 1930 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska. Most of the water-level measurements in this report were obtained and compiled as part of the Missouri Basin Development Program.

Nebraska↗

USGS2005

Missouri magnetic and gravity maps and data: A web site for distribution of data

Magnetic anomalies are due to variations in the Earth's magnetic field caused by the uneven distribution of magnetic minerals (primarily magnetite) in the rocks that make up the upper part of the Earth's crust. The features and patterns of the magnetic anomalies can be used to delineate details of subsurface geology, including the locations of buried faults and magnetite-bearing rocks and the depth to the base of sedimentary basins. This information is valuable for mineral exploration, geologic mapping, and environmental studies. The Missouri magnetic map is constructed from grids that combine information collected in 25 separate magnetic surveys conducted between 1943 and 1987. The data from these surveys are of varying quality. The design and specifications (terrain clearance, sampling rates, line spacing, and reduction procedures) varied from survey to survey depending on the purpose of the project and the technology of that time. Every attempt was made to acquire the data in digital form.

Missouri↗

USGS2005

Water-quality and biologic data for the Blue River basin, Kansas City metropolitan area, Missouri and Kansas, October 2000 to October 2004

This report presents water-quality and biologic data collected in the Blue River Basin, metropolitan Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, from October 2000 to October 2004. Data were collected in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, Water Services Department as part of an ongoing study designed to characterize long-term water-quality trends in the basin and to provide data to support a strategy for combined sewer overflow control. These data include values of physical properties, fecal indicator bacteria densities, suspended sediment, and concentrations of major ions, nutrients, trace elements, organic wastewater compounds, and pharmaceutical compounds in base-flow and stormflow stream samples and bottom sediments. Six surface-water sites in the basin were sampled 13 times during base-flow conditions and during a minimum of 7 storms. Benthic macroinvertebrate communities are described at 10 sites in the basin and 1 site outside the basin. Water-column and bottom-sediment data from impounded reaches of Brush Creek are provided. Continuous specific conductance, pH, water-quality temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen data are provided for two streams-the Blue River and Brush Creek. Sampling, analytical, and quality assurance methods used in data collection during the study also are described in the report.

Kansas, Missouri↗

USGS1986

Sources of coal-mine drainage and their effects on surface-water chemistry in the Claybank Creek basin and vicinity, north-central Missouri, 1983-84

Eighteen sources of drainage related to past coal-mining activity were identified in the Claybank Creek, Missouri, study area, and eight of thew were considered large enough to have detectable effects on receiving streams. However, only three sources, coal wastes at Keota and Binkley, and drainage from underground coal mines near Keota, significantly affected the chemistry of water in receiving streams. Coal wastes in the Claybank Creek basin contributed large quantities of acid drainage to receiving streams during storm runoff; pH of coal-waste runoff ranged from 2.1 to 2.8. At these small pH values, concentrations of some dissolved metals and dissolved sulfate were a few to several hundred times larger than Federal and State water-quality standards established for these constituents. Effects of acid storm runoff were detected near the mouth of North Fork Claybank Creek where the pH during a small storm was 3.9. Coal wastes in the streambeds and seepage from coal wastes also had significant effects on receiving streams during base flows. The receiving waters had pH values between 2.8 and 3.5 and concentrations of some dissolved metals and dissolved sulfate were a few to several hundred times larger than Federal and State water-quality standards. Most underground mines in the North Fork Claybank Creek basin are hydraulically connected and about 80 percent of their discharge surfaced at one site. Drainage from the underground mines contributed most of the dissolved constituents in North Fork Claybank Creek during dry weather. Underground-mine water always had a pH near 5.9, was well-buffered, had a dissolved-sulfate concentration of about 2,400 milligrams per liter, dissolved-manganese concentrations ranging from 4.0 to 5.3 milligrams per liter, and large concentrations of ferrous iron. Iron was in the ferrous state due to reducing conditions in the mines. When underground-mine drainage reached the ground surface, the ferrous iron was oxidized and precipitated to form large, orange deposits of ferric hydroxide around the site and in streambeds. Generally, drainage from strip mines had dissolved-sulfate concentrations several times larger than drainage from unmined areas. However, effects of drainage from strip mines on receiving streams were minimal when compared to the drainage from coal wastes and underground mines. No appreciable effects of mine-related drainage were detected in the water of the Claybank Creek arm of Thomas Hill Reservoir at the time of sampling because beaver bogs upstream had trapped suspended coal wastes and moderated the effects. However, the concentration of coal in the bottom material was 60 percent of the coal concentration in coal wastes at Keota, indicating that the reservoir had received these wastes during the past.

Missouri↗

USGS1983

Environmental-stratigraphic cross sections of the Cretaceous Fox Hills Sandstone and Hell Creek Formation and Paleocene Fort Union Formation, Richland and Roosevelt Counties, Montana

This study was conducted to determine the stratigraphic, lithofacies, and deopsitional relationships of the Cretaceous Fox Hills Sandstone and Hell Creek Formation and The Paleocene Fort Union Formation. These relationships, shown in sections A-A', B-B', C-C', and D-D', we established form nearly continuous exposures in the Missouri River valley in Richland and Roosevelt Counties, Mont. The river valley topography is characterized by badlands, which permitted detailed description and construction of the stratigraphic framework of the formations within a 30-mi-long belt of exposures paralleling the Missouri River. This area of study is on the western flank of the Williston Basin and east of the Poplar Dome. The latter structure imparted a northeasterly regional dip to the rocks, which averages 25 ft per mi and is as much as 100 ft per mi according to Spencer (1980). The regional dip resulted in exposure of older rocks (Cretaceous) in the west to younger rocks (Tertiary) in the east.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—Annual report 2013

The Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project is a multiyear, multiagency collaborative research framework developed to provide information to support pallid sturgeon recovery and Missouri River management decisions. The project strategy integrates field and laboratory studies of pallid sturgeon reproductive ecology, early life history, habitat requirements, and physiology. The project scope of work is developed annually with collaborating research partners and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery—Integrated Science Program. The research consists of several interdependent and complementary tasks that engage multiple disciplines. The research tasks in the 2013 scope of work emphasized understanding reproductive migrations and spawning of adult pallid sturgeon, and hatch and drift of free embryos and larvae. These tasks were addressed in four study sections located in three hydrologically and geomorphologically distinct parts of the Missouri River Basin: the Upper Missouri River downstream from Fort Peck Dam, including downstream reaches of the Milk River, the Lower Yellowstone River, and the Lower Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam. The research is designed to inform management decisions related to channel re-engineering, flow modification, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation on the Missouri River, and throughout the range of the species. Research and progress made through this project are reported to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers annually. This annual report details the research effort and progress made by the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project during 2013.

Missouri River Basin↗

USGS2022

Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year variability at a regional extent is a major gap in modeling capability. Herein, we expand and adapt the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model from its original implementation in the Pacific Northwest (PROSPER PNW ) to the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPER UM ), a geographical region that includes mountain and prairie ecosystems of the northern United States. PROSPER UM is an empirical model used to estimate the probability that a stream channel has year-round flow in response to climatic conditions (monthly and annual) and static physiographic predictor variables of the upstream basin. The structure and approach of PROSPER UM are generally consistent with the PROSPER PNW model but include improved spatial resolution (10 m) and a longer modeling period. Average model accuracy was 81 %. Drainage area, upstream proportion as wetlands, and upstream proportion as developed land cover were the most important predictor variables. The PROSPER UM model identifies decreases in streamflow permanence during climatically drier years, although there is variability in the magnitude across basins highlighting geographically varying sensitivity to drought. Variability in the response of perennial streams to drought conditions among basins in the study area was also observed.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS1986

An alternative basin characteristic for use in estimating impervious area in urban Missouri basins

A previous regression analysis of flood peaks on urban basins in St. Louis County, Missouri, indicated that the basin characteristics of percentage of impervious area and drainage area were statistically significant for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-. and 100-yr peak discharges at ungaged urban basins. In this statewide regression analysis of the urban basins for Missouri, an alternative basin characteristic called the percentage of developed area was evaluated. A regression analysis of the percentage of developed area (independent variable), resulted in a simple equation for computing percentage of impervious area. The percentage of developed area also was evaluated using flood-frequency data for 23 streamflow gaging stations, and the use of this variable was determined to be valid. Using nationwide data, an urban basin characteristic known as the basin development factor was determined to be valid for inclusion in urban regression equations for estimating flood flows. The basin development factor and the percentage of developed area were compared for use in regression equations to estimate peak flows of streams in Missouri. The equations with the basin development factor produced peak flow estimates with slightly smaller average standard errors of estimate than the equation with the percentage of developed area; however, this study indicates that there was not enough statistical or numerical difference to warrant using the basin development factor instead of the percentage of developed area in Missouri. The selection of a basin characteristic to describe the physical conditions of a drainage basin will depend not only on its contribution to accuracy of regression equations, but also on the ease of determining the characteristics; the percentage of developed area has this advantage. A correlation analysis was made by correlating drainage area to percentage of impervious area, the percentage of developed area, and the basin development factor. The results of the analysis indicate that the three basin characteristics are independent of drainage area and appropriate to use in multiple-regression analysis. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Effects of latitude, season, and temperature on Lake Sturgeon movement

Ecologists have a limited understanding of the rangewide variation in movement behavior in freshwater fishes, but recent expansion of biotelemetry allows biologists to investigate how fish movement can help to predict behavioral shifts in response to changing environments. The Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens is a wide-ranging, migratory, coolwater species, making it a candidate species for studying patterns in movement ecology. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis of seasonal movement data compiled from 38 Lake Sturgeon telemetry studies in North America to build an understanding of spatiotemporal variation in movement behavior. Lake Sturgeon movement studies were underrepresented for low-latitude populations in the Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio/Tennessee River basins. Highest movement usually occurred during spring spawning migrations, whereas other populations exhibited their highest movement in the fall, potentially in order to overwinter near spawning grounds. Our meta-regression analysis indicated that latitude or summer maximum temperature best predicted standardized mean difference between spring and summer movement in Lake Sturgeon populations across the species’ range. Our results suggest that Lake Sturgeon populations at lower latitudes and those that experience warmer summer temperatures have lower summer movement relative to spring movement. Managers may use this information to prioritize actions promoting the conservation of seasonally important habitats for the continued recovery of migratory coolwater fish (e.g., Lake Sturgeon) that potentially experience stressful thermal conditions.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2021

Integrating ecological impacts: Perspectives on drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Drought is a complex challenge experienced in specific locations through diverse impacts, including ecological impacts. Different professionals involved in drought preparedness and response approach the problem from different points of view, which means they may or may not recognize ecological impacts. This study examines the extent to which interviewees perceive ecological drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters basin in southwestern Montana. Through semistructured interviews, this research investigates individuals’ perceptions of drought by analyzing how they define drought, how they describe their roles related to drought, and the extent to which they emphasize ecological impacts of drought. Results suggest that while most interviewees have an integrated understanding of drought, they tend to emphasize either ecological or nonecological impacts of drought. This focus was termed their drought orientation. Next, the analysis considers how participants understand exposure to drought. Results indicate that participants view drought as a complex problem driven by both human and natural factors. Last, the paper explores understandings of the available solution space by examining interviewees’ views on adaptive capacity, particularly factors that facilitate or hinder the ability of the Upper Missouri Headwaters region to cope with drought. Participants emphasized that adaptive capacity is both helped and hindered by institutional, cultural, and economic factors, as well as by available information and past resource management practices. Understanding how interviewees perceive the challenges of drought can shape drought preparedness and response, allowing those designing programs to better align their efforts to the perceptions of their target audience.

Montana↗

USGS2011

Threats of habitat and water-quality degradation to mussel diversity in the Meramec River Basin, Missouri, USA

The Meramec River Basin in east-central Missouri is an important stronghold for native freshwater mussels (Order: Unionoida) in the United States. Whereas the basin supports more than 40 mussel species, previous studies indicate that the abundance and distribution of most species are declining. Therefore, resource managers have identified the need to prioritize threats to native mussel populations in the basin and to design a mussel monitoring program. The objective of this study was to identify threats of habitat and water-quality degradation to mussel diversity in the basin. Affected habitat parameters considered as the main threats to mussel conservation included excess sedimentation, altered stream geomorphology and flow, effects on riparian vegetation and condition, impoundments, and invasive non-native species. Evaluating water-quality parameters for conserving mussels was a main focus of this study. Mussel toxicity data for chemical contaminants were compared to national water quality criteria (NWQC) and Missouri water quality standards (MWQS). However, NWQC and MWQS have not been developed for many chemical contaminants and some MWQS may not be protective of native mussel populations. Toxicity data indicated that mussels are sensitive to ammonia, copper, temperature, certain pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products; these compounds were identified as the priority water-quality parameters for mussel conservation in the basin. Measures to conserve mussel diversity in the basin include expanding the species and life stages of mussels and the list of chemical contaminants that have been assessed, establishing a long term mussel monitoring program that measures physical and chemical parameters of high priority, conducting landscape scale modeling to predict mussel distributions, determining sublethal effects of primary contaminants of concern, deriving risk-based guidance values for mussel conservation, and assessing the effects of wastewater treatment plants and non-point source pollution on mussels. A critical next step to further prioritize these needs is to conduct a watershed risk assessment using local data (for example, land use, flow) when available.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin over multiple centuries identified using tree-ring based multi-model streamflow reconstructions

The Missouri River basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the United States, presents major water management challenges due to its complex topology and extensive infrastructure designed to manage high annual flows. Severe hydroclimatic events, particularly floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019, have highlighted vulnerabilities, leading the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to enhance flood risk assessments in 2023. This study focuses on the full MRB, using tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to extend the Basin's historic streamflow perspective. We developed annual streamflow reconstructions for the Hermann, Missouri streamgage from water years 1360–1900 using K-nearest neighbor and principal component regression methods. These reconstructions incorporate 183 tree-ring chronologies (1360–2020) and modeled natural streamflow (1901–‍2020). Reconstructions were evaluated for consistency using statistical measures and wavelet analysis. Both methods produced similar results, confirming their reliability in reconstructing multi-century streamflows. This novel methodology, guided by wavelet analysis, was developed to identify potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin (LMRB), resulting in the identification of 172 potential flood events from water years 1360–2020, with 126 events common to the two versions of the MRB reconstructions. The reconstructed streamflow records showed an increase in the number of events until the late-18th- or mid-19th-century. These findings provide insights into evolving flood characteristics in the LMRB. The novel methodology developed in this study can be used to identify potential flood events from tree-ring based annual streamflow reconstructions and generally be applicable to other river basins.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wyomin↗

USGS2014

Novel single-nucleotide polymorphism markers confirm successful spawning of endangered pallid sturgeon in the upper Missouri River Basin

Spawning of the federally endangered Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is known to occur in the upper Missouri River basin, but progeny from natural reproductive events have not been observed and recruitment to juvenile or adult life stages has not been documented in recent decades. Identification of Pallid Sturgeon progeny is confounded by the fact that Shovelnose Sturgeon S. platorynchus occurs throughout the entire range of Pallid Sturgeon and the two species are essentially indistinguishable (morphometrically and meristically) during early life stages. Moreover, free embryos of sympatric Paddlefish Polyodon spathula are very similar to the two sturgeon species. In this study, three single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assays were employed to screen acipenseriform free embryos and larvae collected from the upper Missouri River basin in 2011, 2012, and 2013. A mitochondrial DNA SNP discriminates Paddlefish from sturgeon, and specific multilocus genotypes at two nuclear DNA SNPs occurred in 98.9% of wild adult Pallid Sturgeon but only in 3% of Shovelnose Sturgeon sampled in the upper Missouri River. Individuals identified as potential Pallid Sturgeon based on SNP genotypes were further analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci for species discrimination. Out of 1,423 free embryos collected over 3 years of sampling, 971 Paddlefish, 446 Shovelnose Sturgeon, and 6 Pallid Sturgeon were identified. Additionally, 249 Scaphirhynchus spp. benthic larvae were screened, but no Pallid Sturgeon were detected. These SNP markers provide an efficient method of screening acipenseriform early life stages for the presence of Pallid Sturgeon in the Missouri River basin. Detection of wild Pallid Sturgeon free embryos in the upper Missouri and Yellowstone rivers supports the hypothesis that the failure of wild Pallid Sturgeon to recruit to the juvenile life stage in the upper Missouri River basin is caused by early life stage mortality rather than by lack of successful spawning.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Missouri and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Missouri and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-streamflow frequency analysis in Missouri. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; and 30 years, 1991–2020) for trends, change points (abrupt changes in the streamflow time series), and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Peak streamflow magnitudes generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and only in southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 10-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 40-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Changes in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, are not as substantial or widespread, showing consistent increases mainly in the southern part of the State in the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. Change points in peak streamflows generally follow that of the peak streamflow trends, with upward change points throughout most of the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in southern Missouri at the 30-year trend period. Temporally, clusters upward of change points are observed in the 1970s through 1980s for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and around 2006 and 2007 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. A peaks-over-threshold analysis, which evaluates changes in the frequency of peak streamflows over a certain threshold, indicates that high flows have increased in frequency at 50 to 64 percent of streamgages in the 100- and 75-year trend periods. Most streamgages in the 50- and 30-year trend periods exhibit no change. Although the frequency of high flows has increased at some streamgages and trend periods in Missouri, these increases are not as widespread as the increases in the magnitude of peak streamflow. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with no downward trends in precipitation and only two somewhat likely downward trends in temperature for the 100-year trend period. Increases in annual precipitation mostly are limited to southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, which is expected in response to increasing temperature. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this study incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. When peak streamflow and climatic trends are considered together, widespread upward trends in peak streamflows for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and for the 30-year trend period mainly in southern Missouri (encompassing both trends and abrupt change) appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns and statistical relations. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Missouri has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Winter and spring precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Missouri↗

USGS2019

Nutrients in northern Missouri streams

Nutrients, specifically nitrogen and phosphorus, are necessary for healthy aquatic communities to thrive, but if nutrient concentrations are too high, water quality can be degraded and natural aquatic communities may be destroyed. Nutrients consistently have been listed nationally as one of the top five causes of stream and river impairments, and agriculture consistently has been identified as the leading known source. The Mississippi River watershed was identified as a top priority for nutrient reductions because of the predominant agricultural land use, the associated harmful effects of nutrient loading on local water bodies, and the resulting annual midsummer northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic “dead” zone. In 2010, the Natural Resources Conservation Service started the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative, which offers financial and technical assistance for voluntary conservation practices on agricultural lands. The intention is to reduce nutrient and sediment export to waterways within the Mississippi River watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey Missouri Water Science Center and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources began a cooperative study in 2010 to compare temporal changes in total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Grand River. Despite increases in conservation practice funding from the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative during 2011–15 for the Lower Grand River, decreases in flow-normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations during this same period at the Grand River site were less than at the other long-term Missouri River tributary sites that did not receive additional funding. The flow-normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations at the three long-term Missouri River tributary sites were related to the amount of agricultural land use within their watersheds and livestock manure may be a substantial source of stream nitrogen. Monthly total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations within the Lower Grand River increased with increased streamflow, indicating that the major sources of nitrogen and phosphorus are runoff or nutrients that are stored in soils within the streambank that mobilize during higher streamflows. Programs such as the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative are intended to encourage voluntary agricultural conservation practices to enhance soil health and reduce nutrient export to streams.

Missouri↗

USGS2013

Exotic plant colonization and occupancy within riparian areas of the Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River basins, USA

Exotic plant invasions into riparia often result in shifts in vegetative composition, altered stream function, and cascading effects to biota at multiple scales. Characterizing the distribution patterns of exotic plants is an important step in directing targeted research to identify mechanisms of invasion and potential management strategies. In this study, we employed occupancy models to examine the associations of landscape, climate, and disturbance attributes with the colonization and occupancy patterns for spotted knapweed ( Centaurea stoebe L.), Canada thistle ( Cirsium arvense L., Scop.), and cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) in the riparia of headwater streams ( n  = 1,091) in the Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River Basins. We found relatively low occupancy rates for cheatgrass (0.06, SE = 0.02) and spotted knapweed (0.04, SE = 0.01), but moderate occupancy of Canada thistle (0.28, SE = 0.05); colonization rates were low across all species (<0.01). We found the distributions of spotted knapweed, Canada thistle, and cheatgrass to exhibit significant associations with both ambient climate conditions and anthropogenic and natural disturbances. We attribute the low to moderate occupancy and colonization rates to the relatively remote locations of our sample sites within headwater streams and urge consideration of means to prevent further invasions.

Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River b↗