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USGS1997

Effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the south-eastern United States and the Gulf Coast of Mexico

The south-eastern United States and Gulf Coast of Mexico is physiographically diverse, although dominated by a broad coastal plain. Much of the region has a humid, warm temperate climate with little seasonality in precipitation but strong seasonality in runoff owing to high rates of summer evapotranspiration. The climate of southern Florida and eastern Mexico is subtropical with a distinct summer wet season and winter dry season. Regional climate models suggest that climate change resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 may increase annual air temperatures by 3-4??C. Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain, but the most probable scenario shows higher levels over all but the northern, interior portions of the region, with increases primarily occurring in summer and occurring as more intense or clustered storms. Despite the increases in precipitation, runoff is likely to decline over much of the region owing to increases in evapotranspiration exceeding increases in precipitation. Only in Florida and the Gulf Coast areas of the US and Mexico are precipitation increases likely to exceed evapotranspiration increases, producing an increase in runoff. However, increases in storm intensity and clustering are likely to result in more extreme hydrographs, with larger peaks in flow but lower baseflows and longer periods of drought. The ecological effects of climate change on freshwaters of the region include: (1) a general increase in rates of primary production, organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling as a result of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons: (2) reduction in habitat for cool water species, particularly fish and macroinvertebrates in Appalachian streams; (3) reduction in water quality and in suitable habitat in summer owing to lower baseflows and intensification of the temperature-dissolved oxygen squeeze in many rivers and reservoirs; (4) reduction in organic matter storage and loss of organisms during more intense flushing events in some streams and wetlands; (5) shorter periods of inundation of riparian wetlands and greater drying of wetland soils, particularly in northern and inland areas; (6) expansion of subtropical species northwards, including several non-native nuisance species currently confined to southern Florida; (7) expansion of wetlands in Florida and coastal Mexico, but increase in eutrophication of Florida lakes as a result of greater runoff from urban and agricultural areas; and (8) changes in the flushing rate of estuaries that would alter their salinity regimes, stratification and water quality as well as influence productivity in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the expected climate change effects will exacerbate current anthropogenic stresses on the region's freshwater systems, including increasing demands for water, increasing waste heat loadings and land use changes that alter the quantity and quality of runoff to streams and reservoirs. Research is needed especially in several critical areas: long-term monitoring of key hydrological, chemical and biological properties (particularly water balances in small, forested catchments and temperature-sensitive species); experimental studies of the effects of warming on organisms and ecosystem processes under realistic conditions (e.g. in situ heating experiments); studies of the effects of natural hydrological variation on biological communities; and assessment of the effects of water management activities on organisms and ecosystem processes, including development and testing of management and restoration strategies designed to counteract changes in climate.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2025

Applying U.S. Geological Survey science to understand effects to water supply in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Introduction The Colorado River Basin is a vital source of water to more than 40 million people in the Western United States and Mexico, including in major cities like Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Los Angeles, and San Diego, and supports irrigation for about 16,000 square kilometers of agricultural land. Since 2000, the southwestern United States has been unusually dry due to low precipitation and warm air temperatures, contributing to extreme water level declines of the two large reservoirs on the Colorado River, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. In 2021, these reservoirs reached their lowest levels on record, resulting in unprecedented restrictions on water usage in the basin. As much as 90 percent of the annual runoff in the Colorado River Basin originates in areas upstream from Lake Powell (hereafter, these areas will be referred to collectively as the “Upper Basin”). Consequently, understanding the processes that can affect water supply in the Upper Basin could be crucial for supporting human, agricultural, and ecological needs across a large spatial scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) does a wide variety of science in cooperation with resource managers, municipalities, tribes, and local, State, and Federal agencies to help improve understanding of processes, such as streamflow and water quality, potentially affecting water supply in the Upper Basin. This fact sheet describes three key potential factors affecting water supply in the Upper Basin—snow processes and water storage, wildfire and basin hydrology, and salinity concentrations and water quality—and highlights associated USGS research activities in the basin.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Agencies collaborate, develop a cyanobacteria assessment network

Cyanobacteria are a genetically diverse group of photosynthetic microorganisms that occupy a broad range of habitats on land and water all over the world. They release toxins that can cause lung and skin irritation, alter the taste and odor of potable water, and cause human and animal illness. Cyanobacteria blooms occur worldwide, and climate change may increase the frequency, duration, and extent of these bloom events. Rapid detection of potentially harmful blooms is essential to protect humans and animals from exposure. Information about potential for exposure, such as bloom duration, frequency, and extent, is especially critical for developing environmental management decisions during periods of limited resources and funding. The National Research Council (NRC) report Exposure Science in the 21st Century suggested that effectively assessing and mitigating exposures requires techniques for rapid measurement of a stressor, such as an algal bloom, across diverse geographic, temporal, and biologic scales (e.g., various bloom concentrations) and an enhanced infrastructure to address threats [ NRC , 2012]. The report specifically calls for approaches that use diverse information, such as satellite remote sensing, to identify and understand exposures that may pose a threat to ecosystems or human health. A collaborative effort integrates the work of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide an approach for using satellite ocean color capabilities in U.S. fresh and brackish water quality management decisions. The overarching goal of this collaborative project is to detect and quantify cyanobacteria blooms using satellite data records in order to support the environmental management and public use of U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Satellite remote sensing tools may enable policy makers and environmental managers to assess the sustainability of watershed ecosystems and the services they provide, now and in the future. Satellite technology allows us to develop early-warning indicators of cyanobacteria blooms at the local scale while maintaining continuous national coverage.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2014

Small reservoir distribution, rate of construction, and uses in the upper and middle Chattahoochee basins of the Georgia Piedmont, USA, 1950-2010

Construction of small reservoirs affects ecosystem processes in numerous ways including fragmenting stream habitat, altering hydrology, and modifying water chemistry. While the upper and middle Chattahoochee River basins within the Southeastern United States Piedmont contain few natural lakes, they have a high density of small reservoirs (more than 7500 small reservoirs in the nearly 12,000 km2 basin). Policymakers and water managers in the region have little information about small reservoir distribution, uses, or the cumulative inundation of land cover caused by small reservoir construction. Examination of aerial photography reveals the spatiotemporal patterns and extent of small reservoir construction from 1950 to 2010. Over that 60 year timeframe, the area inundated by water increased nearly six fold (from 19 reservoirs covering 0.16% of the study area in 1950 to 329 reservoirs covering 0.95% of the study area in 2010). While agricultural practices were associated with reservoir creation from 1950 to 1970, the highest rates of reservoir construction occurred during subsequent suburban development between 1980 and 1990. Land cover adjacent to individual reservoirs transitioned over time through agricultural abandonment, land reforestation, and conversion to development during suburban expansion. The prolific rate of ongoing small reservoir creation, particularly in newly urbanizing regions and developing counties, necessitates additional attention from watershed managers and continued scientific research into cumulative environmental impacts at the watershed scale.

Georgia↗

USGS2019

Small ponds in headwater catchments are a dominant influence on regional nutrient and sediment budgets

Small ponds—farm ponds, detention ponds, or impoundments below 0.01 km 2 —serve important human needs throughout most large river basins. Yet the role of small ponds in regional nutrient and sediment budgets is essentially unknown, currently making it impossible to evaluate their management potential to achieve water quality objectives. Here we used new hydrography data sets and found that small ponds, depending on their spatial position within both their local catchments and the larger river network, can dominate the retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Over 300,000 small ponds are collectively responsible for 34%, 69%, and 12% of the mean annual retention of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the Northeastern United States, respectively, with a dominant influence in headwater catchments (54%, 85%, and 50%, respectively). Small ponds play a critical role among the many aquatic features in long‐term nutrient and sediment loading to downstream waters.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1990

Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been active in West Virginia since the early 1900's. During recent years, the District completed several investigations as well as initiated others. An intense effort has been made to publish interpretive reports and data on a near-current basis. As a result of this effort, a significant number of water resources reports were completed and/or published during the 1989 fiscal year. This report contains a complete list of USGS reports addressing West Virginia hydrology as of December 1989. The mission of the Water Resources Division is to provide the hydrologic information and understanding needed for the optimum utilization and management of the Nation 's water resources for the overall benefit of the people in the United States. This is accomplished, in large part , through cooperation with other Federal and non-Federal agencies, by: (1) Collecting, on a systematic basis, data needed for the continuing determination and evaluation of the quantity, quality, and use of the Nation 's water resources; (2) Conducting analytical and interpretive water resource appraisals describing the occurrence, availability, and the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of surface and groundwater; (3) conducting supportive basic and problem-oriented research in hydraulics, hydrology, and related fields of science to improve the scientific basis for investigations and measurement techniques and to understand hydrologic systems sufficiently well to quantitatively predict their response to stress, either natural or manmade; (4) disseminating the water data and the results of these investigations and research through reports, maps, computerized information services, and other forms of public releases; (5) Coordinating the activities of Federal agencies in the acquisition of water data for streams, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, and groundwaters; and (6) Providing scientific and technical assistance in hydrologic fields to other Federal, State and local agencies, to licensees of the Federal Power Commission, and to international agencies on behalf of the Department of State. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors. We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate). Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor). Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact. Synthesis and applications . Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Suitability of river delta sediment as proppant, Missouri and Niobrara Rivers, Nebraska and South Dakota, 2015

Sediment management is a challenge faced by reservoir managers who have several potential options, including dredging, for mitigation of storage capacity lost to sedimentation. As sediment is removed from reservoir storage, potential use of the sediment for socioeconomic or ecological benefit could potentially defray some costs of its removal. Rivers that transport a sandy sediment load will deposit the sand load along a reservoir-headwaters reach where the current of the river slackens progressively as its bed approaches and then descends below the reservoir water level. Given a rare combination of factors, a reservoir deposit of alluvial sand has potential to be suitable for use as proppant for hydraulic fracturing in unconventional oil and gas development. In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey began a program of researching potential sources of proppant sand from reservoirs, with an initial focus on the Missouri River subbasins that receive sand loads from the Nebraska Sand Hills. This report documents the methods and results of assessments of the suitability of river delta sediment as proppant for a pilot study area in the delta headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake, Nebraska and South Dakota. Results from surface-geophysical surveys of electrical resistivity guided borings to collect 3.7-meter long cores at 25 sites on delta sandbars using the direct-push method to recover duplicate, 3.8-centimeter-diameter cores in April 2015. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of upstream sand sources in the lower Niobrara River valley. At the laboratory, samples were dried, weighed, washed, dried, and weighed again. Exploratory analysis of natural sand for determining its suitability as a proppant involved application of a modified subset of the standard protocols known as American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 19C. The RP19C methods were not intended for exploration-stage evaluation of raw materials. Results for the washed samples are not directly applicable to evaluations of suitability for use as fracture sand because, except for particle-size distribution, the API-recommended practices for assessing proppant properties (sphericity, roundness, bulk density, and crush resistance) require testing of specific proppant size classes. An optical imaging particle-size analyzer was used to make measurements of particle-size distribution and particle shape. Measured samples were sieved to separate the dominant-size fraction, and the separated subsample was further tested for roundness, sphericity, bulk density, and crush resistance. For the bulk washed samples collected from the Missouri River delta, the geometric mean size averaged 0.27 millimeters (mm), 80 percent of the samples were predominantly sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 17 percent were predominantly sand in the API 70/140 size class. Distributions of geometric mean size among the four sandbar complexes were similar, but samples collected from sandbar complex B were slightly coarser sand than those from the other three complexes. The average geometric mean sizes among the four sandbar complexes ranged only from 0.26 to 0.30 mm. For 22 main-stem sampling locations along the lower Niobrara River, geometric mean size averaged 0.26 mm, an average of 61 percent was sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 28 percent was sand in the API 70/140 size class. Average composition for lower Niobrara River samples was 48 percent medium sand, 37 percent fine sand, and about 7 percent each very fine sand and coarse sand fractions. On average, samples were moderately well sorted. Particle shape and strength were assessed for the dominant-size class of each sample. For proppant strength, crush resistance was tested at a predetermined level of stress (34.5 megapascals [MPa], or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch). To meet the API minimum requirement for proppant, after the crush test not more than 10 percent of the tested sample should be finer than the precrush dominant-size class. For particle shape, all samples surpassed the recommended minimum criteria for sphericity and roundness, with most samples being well-rounded. For proppant strength, of 57 crush-resistance tested Missouri River delta samples of 40/70-sized sand, 23 (40 percent) were interpreted as meeting the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch. Of 12 tested samples of 70/140-sized sand, 9 (75 percent) of the Missouri River delta samples had less than 10 percent fines by volume following crush testing, achieving the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa. Crush resistance for delta samples was strongest at sandbar complex A, where 67 percent of tested samples met the 10-percent fines criterion at the 34.5-MPa threshold. This frequency was higher than was indicated by samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D that had rates of 50, 46, and 42 percent, respectively. The group of sandbar complex A samples also contained the largest percentages of samples dominated by the API 70/140 size class, which overall had a higher percentage of samples meeting the minimum criterion compared to samples dominated by coarser size classes; however, samples from sandbar complex A that had the API 40/70 size class tested also had a higher rate for meeting the minimum criterion (57 percent) than did samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D (50, 43, and 40 percent, respectively). For samples collected along the lower Niobrara River, of the 25 tested samples of 40/70-sized sand, 9 samples passed the API minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, but only 3 samples passed the more-stringent criterion of 8 percent postcrush fines. All four tested samples of 70/140 sand passed the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, with postcrush fines percentage of at most 4.1 percent. For two reaches of the lower Niobrara River, where hydraulic sorting was energized artificially by the hydraulic head drop at and immediately downstream from Spencer Dam, suitability of channel deposits for potential use as fracture sand was confirmed by test results. All reach A washed samples were well-rounded and had sphericity scores above 0.65, and samples for 80 percent of sampled locations met the crush-resistance criterion at the 34.5-MPa stress level. A conservative lower-bound estimate of sand volume in the reach A deposits was about 86,000 cubic meters. All reach B samples were well-rounded but sphericity averaged 0.63, a little less than the average for upstream reaches A and SP. All four samples tested passed the crush-resistance test at 34.5 MPa. Of three reach B sandbars, two had no more than 3 percent fines after the crush test, surpassing more stringent criteria for crush resistance that accept a maximum of 6 percent fines following the crush test for the API 70/140 size class. Relative to the crush-resistance test results for the API 40/70 size fraction of two samples of mine output from Loup River settling-basin dredge spoils near Genoa, Nebr., four of five reach A sample locations compared favorably. The four samples had increases in fines composition of 1.6–5.9 percentage points, whereas fines in the two mine-output samples increased by an average 6.8 percentage points.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2026

Characterizing operational signatures of reservoirs with the SWOT satellite by comparing natural lake and reservoir dynamics

Due to a lack of management operations data, hydrological models may represent reservoirs as natural lakes, leading to poor discharge predictions in regulated basins. To parse seasonal operational signatures, we compare the dynamics of natural lake and reservoir systems across North America using Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite observations and derived discharge estimates. Overall, reservoirs and their adjacent river reaches exhibit significantly greater variability (in standard deviation) than their natural counterparts across almost all SWOT observed (e.g. water surface elevation) and inferred (e.g. discharge) variables. Natural lakes show strong same-day correlations between inflow and outflow discharge (median Spearman R = 0.8), whereas 76% of reservoirs exhibit maximum correlation when outflow is lagged, suggesting operations buffer seasonal flow variability. Our findings indicate operations not only affect reservoir dynamics themselves but also have upstream and downstream consequences, which, when integrated into models, will offer more realistic hydrologic conditions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2008

Watershed influences and in-lake processes - A regional-scale approach to monitoring a water-supply reservoir, Lake Houston near Houston, Texas

Created in 1954 by an impoundment on the San Jacinto River, Lake Houston currently (2008) supplies about 20 percent of the total source water for the city of Houston. Houston historically has relied on ground water as the major source of supply. As a result of regulations to limit ground-water withdrawals because of associated land subsidence (effective in 2010), the lake will become the primary source of water supply for the city in the future. Since 1983 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, has collected water-quality and lake-level data at Lake Houston, as well as discharge and intermittent water-quality data at its major inflowing tributaries. Previous studies indicate that Lake Houston is shallow, eutrophic, light limited and has a variable hydrologic regime with water residence times ranging from 12 hours to 400 days. Spring Creek, a tributary that drains the western, more urban, part of the Lake Houston watershed, contributes more sediment and nutrients than East Fork San Jacinto River, a tributary that drains the more rural, eastern part of the watershed. This fact sheet explains the importance of monitoring for management of the resource and describes ongoing research in the Lake Houston watershed by the USGS and the City.

Texas↗

USGS1979

Hydrologic and human aspects of the 1976-77 drought

The drought of 1976-77 was the most severe in at least 50 years in many parts of the United States. Record low amounts of rainfall, snowfall, and runoff, and increased withdrawals of ground water were prevalent. The use of carry-over storage in reservoirs during 1976 maintained streamflow at near normal levels, but some reservoirs went dry or dropped below the outlet works in 1977. Carry-over storage in the fall of 1977 was very low. Ground-water levels were at or near record low levels in many aquifers, hundreds of wells went dry, and thousands of wells were drilled. Yet no wide-spread deterioration of ground-water quality was reported. Water-quality problems arose in some streams and lakes, but most were localized and of short duration. Water rationing became a way of life in numerous areas , and water was hauled in many rural areas and to a few towns. Water use was affected by legal agreements or decisions, some of which were modified for the duration of the drought, and by the inability of water managers to efficiently manage surface and ground waters as one resource under existing law. There are still many drought related problems to solve and many challenges to be met before the next drought occurs. The advancement of techniques in many fields of endeavor in recent years plus ongoing, planned, and proposed research on drought and the risks involved are promising thrusts that should make it easier to cope with the next drought. (Kosco-USGS)

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

Migrated hydrocarbons in exposure of Maastrichtian nonmarine strata near Saddle Mountain, lower Cook Inlet, Alaska

Magoon and others (1980) described an 83-meter- (272-foot-) thick succession of Maastrichtian (Upper Cretaceous) conglomerate, sandstone, mudstone, and coal exposed on the south side of an unnamed drainage, approximately 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) east of Saddle Mountain in lower Cook Inlet (ﬁgs. 1 and 2). The initial signiﬁcance of this exposure was that it was the ﬁrst reported occurrence of nonmarine rocks of this age in outcrop in lower Cook Inlet, which helped constrain the Late Cretaceous paleogeography of the area and provided important information on the composition of latest Mesozoic sandstones in the basin. The Saddle Mountain section is thought to be an outcrop analog for Upper Cretaceous nonmarine strata penetrated in the OCS Y-0097 #1 (Raven) well, located approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) to the south–southeast in Federal waters (ﬁg. 1). Atlantic Richﬁeld Company (ARCO) drilled the Raven well in 1980 and encountered oil-stained rocks and moveable liquid hydrocarbons between the depths of 1,760 and 3,700 feet. Completion reports on ﬁle with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM; formerly Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, and prior to 2010, U.S. Minerals Management Service) either show ﬂow rates of zero or do not mention ﬂow rates. A ﬂuid analysis report on ﬁle with BOEM suggests that a wireline tool sampled some oil beneath a 2,010-foot diesel cushion during the ﬂ ow test of the 3,145–3,175 foot interval, but the recorded ﬂ ow rate was still zero (Kirk Sherwood, written commun., January 9, 2012). Further delineation and evaluation of the apparent accumulation was never performed and the well was plugged and abandoned. As part of a 5-year comprehensive evaluation of the geology and petroleum systems of the Cook Inlet forearc basin, the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys obtained a research permit from the National Park Service to access the relatively poorly understood ‘Saddle Mountain exposure’ that is located in the Lake Clark National Park and Preserve. This work was done in cooperation with the Alaska Division of Oil & Gas and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research geologists. This report expands on Magoon and others’ (1980) description of the exposure, presents new data on sandstone composition and reservoir quality, presents new geochemical data on petroleum extracted from the outcropping sandstone, and describes oil-bearing correlative strata penetrated by the Raven well. Although the exposure is more than a kilometer (0.6 mile) east of Saddle Mountain (ﬁg. 2), in this report we variously refer to it as the Saddle Mountain succession, Saddle Mountain section, or the rocks at Saddle Mountain underlain by Upper Jurassic strata of the Naknek Formation.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Assessing risk for enhanced cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, and pathogens with changes in water level regime with potential application to Lake Powell and Lake Mead: A mixed methods literature review

Water levels in freshwater reservoirs worldwide are changing due to altered climate, management practices, and increasing human demand for water. In the desert southwestern USA, managers are considering significant changes to reservoir operation strategies and water management in response to consumptive use and ongoing drought. To inform reservoir management decision-making, we reviewed current peer-reviewed literature to identify the effects of decreasing or increasing water level on phytoplankton, cyanobacteria, Escherichia coli , and Naegleria spp. We identified 34 studies containing 42 individual waterbodies that investigated the effects of water level increases or decreases on phytoplankton or cyanobacteria. We found that water level decreases resulted in a higher likelihood of increased cyanobacteria, and that phytoplankton were more likely to decrease in response to water level increases. Most of the waterbodies included in the literature review were eutrophic or hypereutrophic, underscoring the need to explore the effects of water level fluctuations on oligotrophic systems. We only identified five studies on E. coli through our review, and no studies on Naegleria spp. We supplemented our review with regional white papers and case studies within the Colorado River Basin and the Rio Grande River Basin to highlight relevant research. Prior and ongoing research highlights the need to explore impacts of water level fluctuations on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to guide future management decision-making.

Arizona, Utah, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Effects of climate and irrigation on GRACE-based estimates of water storage changes in major US aquifers

Understanding climate and human impacts on water storage is critical for sustainable water-resources management. Here we assessed climate and human drivers of total water storage (TWS) variability from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites compared with drought severity and irrigation water use in 14 major aquifers in the United States. Results show that long-term variability in TWS tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most of the 14 major US aquifers. Low TWS trends in the humid eastern U.S. are linked to low drought intensity. Although irrigation pumpage in the humid Mississippi Embayment aquifer exceeded that in the semi-arid California Central Valley, a surprising lack of TWS depletion in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer is attributed to extensive streamflow capture. Marked storage depletion in the semi-arid southwestern Central Valley and south-central High Plains totaled ∼90 km 3 , about three times greater than the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir. Depletion in the Central Valley was driven by long-term droughts (⩽5 yr) amplified by switching from mostly surface water to groundwater irrigation. Low or slightly rising TWS trends in the northwestern (Columbia and Snake Basins) US are attributed to dampening drought impacts by mostly surface water irrigation. GRACE satellite data highlight synergies between climate and irrigation, resulting in little impact on TWS in the humid east, amplified TWS depletion in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral US, and dampened TWS deletion in the northwest and north central US Sustainable groundwater management benefits from conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, inefficient surface water irrigation promoting groundwater recharge, efficient groundwater irrigation minimizing depletion, and increasing managed aquifer recharge. This study has important implications for sustainable water development in many regions globally.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2025

Science needs for determining the effects of climate change on harmful algal blooms in the southeastern United States

The Southeastern United States has many lakes, streams, and reservoirs that serve as important drinking water sources with recreational, agricultural, and ecological uses. However, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming more common in these waters, causing health issues for humans and animals. HABs have been listed as a contaminant of emerging concern, and the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs appear to be increasing at the global scale. While it is well known that nutrients stimulate algae growth, it is not clear how climate change and other parameters stimulate the development of toxin production by HABs. The scientific literature describes parameters, such as storm occurrence, temperature, dissolved metals, erosion of soils, increasing length of growing season, discharge, and hydroperiod, that may affect algae growth and toxin production. Climate and hydrologic models address many of the physical and environmental parameters that influence HABs, but no climate models directly address HABs. This report compiles information from the existing literature pertaining to HABs and the modeling and forecasting of HABS. This compilation is done through the incorporation of climate change models. HAB research that involves climate change will require multiple disciplines that bring together ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, economists, and new technology. Resource managers could use geographic data about the occurrence and distribution of HABs to develop models that identify waterbodies more vulnerable to HAB events. Development of such models will require teams capable of integrating biological, chemical, and physical factors. Model development will require additional research that can resolve anthropogenic and climate-related environmental factors to identify trends in freshwater HABs. The complexity and interconnectedness of the parameters that influence HAB occurrences will make model development challenging and require rigorous regional calibration.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

EMIT reveals elevated calcite signatures in shorelines of Lake Powell and Lake Mead exposed by drought and Colorado River management

Nearly half of Earth’s seasonal freshwater storage variability occurs in human-managed reservoirs, resulting in large areas of reservoir-bed that are episodically inundated or subaerially exposed. Here we use hyperspectral data from NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission to map calcite mineral assemblages across exposed surfaces in two large U.S. reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Results show distinct patterns in the occurrence of carbonate, clay, and mica minerals. Reservoir-deposited sediments exhibited significantly higher calcite proportions than adjacent, lithologically similar, non-inundated terrestrial surfaces. These differences likely reflect hydrologically-driven calcite precipitation, wherein warm, clear, productive reservoir waters drive calcium carbonate out of solution. We also detect reductions in calcite proportions in areas of the shoreline disturbed by human recreation. EMIT's imaging capabilities enable rapid, high-resolution mineralogical inventories across vast areas where field sampling is infeasible. We find EMIT is a scalable tool for monitoring geochemical changes associated with large water level fluctuations.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2008

A simplified water temperature model for the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam

Glen Canyon Dam, located on the Colorado River in northern Arizona, has affected the physical, biological and cultural resources of the river downstream in Grand Canyon. One of the impacts to the downstream physical environment that has important implications for the aquatic ecosystem is the transformation of the thermal regime from highly variable seasonally to relatively constant year-round, owing to hypolimnetic releases from the upstream reservoir, Lake Powell. Because of the perceived impacts on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and native fish communities, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has considered modifications to flow releases and release temperatures designed to increase downstream temperatures. Here, we present a new model of monthly average water temperatures below Glen Canyon Dam designed for first-order, relatively simple evaluation of various alternative dam operations. The model is based on a simplified heat-exchange equation, and model parameters are estimated empirically. The model predicts monthly average temperatures at locations up to 421 km downstream from the dam with average absolute errors less than 0.58C for the dataset considered. The modelling approach used here may also prove useful for other systems, particularly below large dams where release temperatures are substantially out of equilibrium with meteorological conditions. We also present some examples of how the model can be used to evaluate scenarios for the operation of Glen Canyon Dam.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2019

Distribution of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in relation to water temperatures, Lake Scanewa, Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012

A trap-and-haul program is operated to move anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) around dams and reservoirs in the Cowlitz River basin, Washington. The primary release site for adult fish is in Lake Scanewa, a small reservoir created by Cowlitz Falls Dam, the uppermost dam in the basin. Releases in the reservoir are terminated when reservoir water temperature is 16 degrees Celsius (°C) or greater to reduce the risk of exposing adult salmon and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) to thermal conditions known to be stressful for these species. When the water temperature limit is reached, fish are released into the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers upstream of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised about fish presence in the reservoir during warm conditions, so an empirical evaluation of water temperatures selected by spring Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) in Lake Scanewa was requested by resource managers. We conducted the evaluation during June–October 2012. Water temperature in the reservoir was measured using a series of thermographs combined with daily measurements at the Cowlitz Falls Fish Facility. Temperature-use data were collected from 50 adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon tagged with temperature-sensing radio transmitters and released into the reservoir. This approach yielded a total of 930,056 individual temperature-use records in the reservoir during the study. Tagged fish occupied water temperatures less than 16 °C during most of the study period. Water temperatures ranged from 5 to 18.5 °C during the study, peaking in mid-August. Overall, about 25 percent of the detections of tagged fish were in water temperatures in the 16–20 °C range. In August, tagged fish detections in the 18–20 °C range comprised 13 percent of the total detections, and the remainder of the detections were in water less than or equal to 17 °C. Results from the study indicate that adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon were able to locate and use water temperatures in the reservoir less than levels associated with stress. However, we also observed that thermal conditions in the reservoir were cool relative to most other years during 2008–16. Additional research may be warranted to better understand thermal exposure of adult spring Chinook salmon during warmer years.

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