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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Deuterium in interstitial water from deep-sea cores

As part of the Joint Oceanographic Institutions Deep Earth Sampling project, the interstitial waters of cores from 69 holes were sampled for deuterium analysis. Sixteen of the cores penetrated sediments as old as Eocene, and several sampled Cretaceous sediments, which allowed us to examine changes in the deuterium content of the oceans with time. Deuterium is shown to be a conservative constituent of the pore water. Its abundance in the pore fluids can be changed by diffusion, but the rate is slow, and corrections for this effect have been made. Changes in the abundance of deuterium can be related to changes in the amount of ice stored in continental glaciers, inasmuch as precipitation in the form of snow is highly depleted in deuterium compared with the oceans. Many of the cores show a change in isotopic composition of samples from early to late Miocene that can be ascribed to the buildup of the Antarctic ice sheets. After correcting for the role of diffusion in reducing the isotopic contrast between samples from a single core, we estimate an increase of 10 per mil (‰) δD (corresponding to a° δ 18 O change of about 1.2‰) between the early and late Miocene. A similiar analysis of Pleistocene to Holocene changes indicates a δD rise of 8‰ during the time of maximum continental ice, which corresponds to a δ 18 O increase of about 1.0‰. On the basis of limited data, we find no δD change in the oceans from Cretaceous to Miocene.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Insights on multistage rock avalanche behavior from runout modeling constrained by seismic inversions

Inversion of low-frequency regional seismic records to solve for a time series of bulk forces exerted on the earth by a landslide (a force-time function) is increasingly being used to infer volumes and dynamics of large, highly energetic landslides, such as rock avalanches and flowslides, and to provide calibration information on event dynamics and volumes for numerical landslide runout models. Much of the work to date using landslide runout modeling constrained by seismic data has focused on using single-phase models with frictional or velocity-weakening rheologies. Awareness of multistage landslide initiations is increasing, with discrete failures separated in time contributing to the final impact of an event. Our work utilizes a method for incorporating seismic data as a calibration constraint for landslide runout models, considering variable rheologies and different initiation conditions. This study presents a systematic examination of multiple rheologies and initiation conditions, and shows how these factors affect the force-time function derived from the landslide runout model. Our work confirms that, while rheology and fragmenting or initially coherent initiations affect the force-time function, multiple collapses separated by tens of seconds have the greatest impact on the shape and amplitude. We apply this method to the analysis of three real rock avalanches to better constrain plausible initiation conditions and rheology parameters using both seismic and field data. This study provides insights on how assumptions about the initiation dynamics of the source zone and the runout model definition can aid in the interpretation of seismic inversions for multistage rock avalanches.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2026

Constraining the permeability and outer-rise hydration at the Central America margin

Subduction zones are important drivers of Earth's geochemical evolution; the presence of water within the subduction system has substantial implications for geohazards, including the style of seismicity and the volume of magma generated at arc volcanoes. We utilize estimates of pore fluid distributions in the outer-rise region of the Central American margin imaged using controlled-source electro-magnetic surveys and novel two-dimensional forward models simulating poro-elastic deformation of slab bending to constrain the background permeability structure of the Cocos Plate and within outer-rise fault damage zones. The model results suggest that a relatively low background permeability structure is required to match the observed porosity at depths greater than 3 km (less than ~10 −21 m 2 . Similarly, increasing the permeability within the damage zones of outer-rise faults by more than a factor of 10 also over-predicts observed porosity distributions at depths greater than 3 km. However, the simulations consistently underpredict pore fluid distributions between depths of 1–3 km, which may reflect nonlinear elastic or anelastic deformation processes not included in the simulations or inherent uncertainty in the conversion of resistivity measurements to porosity distributions. The best-fitting depth-permeability relationship is relatively low, which has important implications for the timing of pore fluid release down-dip of the trench, as it restricts shallow fluid release, likely leading to higher pore fluid pressures, more widespread hydraulic fracturing, and deeper release of pore fluid along the plate interface.

Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Minor and trace element geochemistry of volcanic rocks dredged from the Galapagos spreading center: Role of crystal fractionation and mantle heterogeneity

A wide range of rock types (abyssal tholeiite, Fe-Ti-rich basalt, andesite, and rhyodacite) were dredged from near 95°W and 85°W on the Galapagos spreading center. Computer modeling of major element compositions has shown that these rocks could be derived from common parental magmas by successive degrees of fractional crystallization. However, the P 2 O 5 /K 2 O ratio averages 0.83 at 95°W and 1.66 at 85°W and implies distinct mantle source compositions for the two areas. These source regions also have different rare earth element (REE) abundance patterns, with [La/Sm] EF = 0.67 at 95°W and 0.46 at 85°W. The sequence of fractionated lavas differs for the two areas and indicates earlier fractionation of apatite and titanomagnetite in the lavas from 95°W. The mantle source regions for these two areas are interpreted to be depleted in incompatible (and volatile?) elements, although the source region beneath 95°W is less severely depleted in La and K. Incompatible trace element abundances in 26 samples are used to infer that the range of Fe-Ti-rich basalt from 85°W represents 19 to 35% residual liquid following crystal fractionation of a mineral assemblage of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and lesser olivine. The most highly differentiated samples have also had less than 1% titanomagnetite removed. Most samples from 85°W can be related to a common parental magma that contained approximately 9 wt % FeO*, 1 wt % TiO 2 , and had an Mg number (Mg# = 100 Mg/(Mg + Fe 2+ )) of about 65. Although the samples from 95°W cannot all be derived from a common parental magma, the inferred parental magmas may have been derived by varying degrees of partial melting of a common source. The fractionation sequence consists of two parts: an initial iron enrichment trend followed by a silica enrichment trend. We interpret the trace element data to indicate that the most iron rich lavas represent about 32% residual liquid derived by crystal fractionation of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and lesser olivine from a parental magma with an Mg number of about 66. The silica enrichment trend results from crystallization of titanomagnetite and some apatite. Fractionation of pigeonite, which is a minor phase in the major element models, cannot be distinguished from clinopyroxene fractionation by using trace elements.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

The nature of the crust in the Yukon-Koyukuk province as inferred from the chemical and isotopic composition of five Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary volcanic fields in western Alaska

Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary volcanic and plutonic rocks in western Alaska comprise a vast magmatic province extending from the Alaska Range north to the Arctic Circle, south to Bristol Bay, and west to the Bering Sea Shelf. The chemical and isotopic composition of five of these Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary volcanic fields in the north central part of this province were studied to determine if Paleozoic or older continental crust underlies the Yukon-Koyukuk province. Three of the fields, the Blackburn Hills, Yukon River, and Kanuti, occur within the Yukon-Koyukuk province and two, the Sischu and Nowitna, overlie bordering Precambrian and Paleozoic metamorphic terranes to the southeast. High initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of 0.7075–0.7079 and moderate initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd of 0.51244–0.51247 of rhyolite, dacite, and high-silica andesite of the Sischu volcanic field indicate that the magmas have interacted with the underlying Paleozoic or older continental crust. The relatively limited variation of isotopic (initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7044–0.7051; initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.51256–0.51257) and elemental compositions of andesites from the Nowitna field can be accounted for by assimilation of small amounts of Paleozoic or older continental crust during crystal fractionation of andesite parent magmas at crustal levels. The Blackburn Hills field, which consists of medium-K basalt, andesite, and rhyolite intruded by a small granitic pluton, has a large range in initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd that plot in the field for 60 Ma mantle, from near mid-ocean ridge basalts to near “bulk-earth” compositions (initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7033–0.7052; initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.51253–0.51290). Andesites and basalts from the Blackburn Hills are divided into two group on the basis of rare earth element (REE) and isotopic composition. Isotopic variation in the more primitive group 1 is best explained by assimilation of the lower crust of the Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Koyukuk terrane by mantle-derived basalts during crystal fractionation, though part of the isotopic variation may be due to metasomatism of an oceanic island basalt type mantle source by fluids derived from subducted sediments. Group 2 andesites from the Blackburn Hills have lower heavy REE abundances and more enriched isotopic compositions. These group 2 andesites and dacites from the Kanuti field, which have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7043–0.7048 and ( 143 Nd/ 144 Nd) i = 0.51248–0.51267, appear to have formed by partial melting of the lower crust of the Koyukuk terrane. The Yukon River field consists of basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite having ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7037–0.7051 and ( 143 Nd/ 144 Nd) i = 0.51266–0.51280; its isotopic composition does not require the presence of Paleozoic or older continental crust under the volcanic field and may have formed by interaction between mantle-derived melts and the oceanic Angayucham/Tozitna or island arc Koyukuk terrane. Most of the intrusive rocks and rhyolite domes from the Blackburn Hills volcanic field have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7038–0.7041 and dacites from the Kanuti volcanic field have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7043–0.7048. Thus little or no old continental crust was involved in the genesis of the Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary rocks and therefore probably does not extend beneath this part of the Yukon-Koyukuk province. However, the ultimate source of the small volumes of enriched shoshonitic andesite ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7075, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.5125) erupted at 118 Ma in the Yukon-Koyukuk province may be continental lithosphere, which may have been thrust under this part of the Yukon-Koyukuk province during arc-continent collision in the Early Cretaceous.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2014

Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez

Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord‐head delta. Comparing them reveals a ~1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high‐resolution seismic reflection data identify a ~400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide‐driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Partitioning of pyroclasts between ballistic transport and a convective plume: Kīlauea volcano, 19 March 2008

We describe the discrete ballistic and wind-advected products of a small, but exceptionally well-characterized, explosive eruption of wall-rock-derived pyroclasts from Kīlauea volcano on 19 March 2008 and, for the first time, integrate the size distribution of the two subpopulations to reconstruct the true size distribution of a population of pyroclasts as it exited from the vent. Based on thinning and fining relationships, the wind-advected fraction had a mass of 6.1 × 10 5 kg and a thickness half distance of 110 m, placing it at the bottom end of the magnitude and intensity spectra of pyroclastic falls. The ballistic population was mapped, in the field and by using structure-from-motion techniques, to a diameter of > 10–20 cm over an area of ~0.1 km 2 , with an estimated mass of 1 × 10 5 kg. Initial ejection velocities of 50–80 m/s were estimated from inversion of isopleths. The total grain size distribution was estimated by using a mass partitioning of 98% of wind-advected material and 2% of ballistics, resulting in median and sorting values of −1.7 ϕ and 3.1 ϕ . It is markedly broader than those calculated for the products of magmatic explosive eruptions, because the grain size of 19 March 2008 clast population is unrelated to a volcanic fragmentation event and instead was “inherited” from a population of talus clasts that temporary blocked the vent prior to the eruption. Despite a conspicuous near-field presence, the ballistic subpopulation has only a minor influence on the grain size distribution because of its rapid thinning and fining away from source.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Combining multiphase groundwater flow and slope stability models to assess stratovolcano flank collapse in the Cascade Range

Hydrothermal alteration can create low‐permeability zones, potentially resulting in elevated pore‐fluid pressures, within a volcanic edifice. Strength reduction by rock alteration and high pore‐fluid pressures have been suggested as a mechanism for edifice flank instability. Here we combine numerical models of multiphase heat transport and groundwater flow with a slope‐stability code that incorporates three‐dimensional distributions of strength and pore‐water pressure to address the following questions: (1) What permeability distributions and contrasts produce elevated pore‐fluid pressures in a stratovolcano? (2) What are the effects of these elevated pressures on flank stability? (3) Finally, what are the effects of magma intrusion on potential flank failure in an edifice? Simulation results show that under a range of plausible parameters, water tables in a stratovolcano can be elevated or perched. These elevated water tables result in universally lower stability (lower factor of safety) compared with equivalent dry edifices, indicating a higher likelihood of flank collapse. Low‐permeability (<1 × 10 −17 m 2 ) layers such as altered pyroclastic deposits or breccias can result in locally saturated regions (perched water) and lower factors of safety near the ground surface but may actually reduce liquid water saturation and pore pressures in the core of the edifice and thus may favor small, shallow collapses over larger, deeper collapses. Magma intrusion into the base of the edifice increases pore‐fluid pressures and decreases the factor of safety. However, the shear strength of edifice rocks also exerts a significant control on stability, so both mechanical properties and pore‐fluid pressures are important for stability assessments.

Washington↗
USGS2000

Seismovolcanic signals at Deception Island volcano, Antarctica: Wave field analysis and source modeling

The seismovolcanic signals associated with the volcanic activity of Deception Island (Antarctica), recorded during three Antarctic summers (1994–1995, 1995–1996 and 1996–1997), are analyzed using a dense small-aperture (500 m) seismic array. The visual and spectral classification of the seismic events shows the existence of long-period and hybrid isolated seismic events, and of low-frequency, quasi-monochromatic and spasmodic continuous tremors. All spectra have the highest amplitudes in the frequency band between 1 and 4 Hz, while hybrids and spasmodic tremors have also significant amplitudes in the high-frequency band (4–10 Hz). The array analysis indicates that almost all the well-correlated low-frequency signals share similar array parameters (slowness and back azimuth) and have the same source area, close to the array site. The polarization analysis shows that phases at high-frequency are mostly composed of P waves, and those phases dominated by low frequencies can be interpreted as surface waves. No clear shear waves are evidenced. From the energy evaluation, we have found that the reduced displacement values for surface and body waves are confined in a narrow interval. Volcano-tectonic seismicity is located close to the array, at a depth shallower than 1 km. The wave-field properties of the seismovolcanic signals allow us to assume a unique source model, a shallow resonating fluid-filled crack system at a depth of some hundreds of meters. All of the seismic activity is interpreted as the response of a reasonably stable stationary geothermal process. The differences observed in the back azimuth between low and high frequencies are a near-field effect. A few episodes of the degassification process in an open conduit were observed and modeled with a simple organ pipe.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

The U-tube: A novel system for acquiring borehole fluid samples from a deep geologic CO2 sequestration experiment

A novel system has been deployed to obtain geochemical samples of water and gas, at in situ pressure, during a geologic CO 2 sequestration experiment conducted in the Frio brine aquifer in Liberty County, Texas. Project goals required high-frequency recovery of representative and uncontaminated aliquots of a rapidly changing two-phase fluid (supercritical CO 2 and brine) fluid from 1.5 km depth. The data sets collected, using both the liquid and gas portions of the downhole samples, provide insights into the coupled hydrogeochemical issues affecting CO 2 sequestration in brine-filled formations. While the basic premise underlying the U-tube sampler is not new, the system is unique because careful consideration was given to the processing of the recovered two-phase fluids. In particular, strain gauges mounted beneath the high-pressure surface sample cylinders measured the ratio of recovered brine to supercritical CO 2 . A quadrupole mass spectrometer provided real-time gas analysis for perfluorocarbon and noble gas tracers that were injected along with the CO 2 . The U-tube successfully acquired frequent samples, facilitating accurate delineation of the arrival of the CO 2 plume, and on-site analysis revealed rapid changes in geochemical conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Effects of supershear rupture speed on the high-frequency content of S waves investigated using spontaneous dynamic rupture models and isochrone theory

In this paper we achieve three goals: (1) We demonstrate that crack tips governed by friction laws, including slip weakening, rate- and state-dependent laws, and thermal pressurization of pore fluids, propagating at supershear speed have slip velocity functions with reduced high-frequency content compared to crack tips traveling at subshear speeds. This is demonstrated using a fully dynamic, spontaneous, three-dimensional earthquake model, in which we calculate fault slip velocity at nine points (locations) distributed along a quarter circle on the fault where the rupture is traveling at supershear speed in the in-plane direction and subshear speed in the antiplane direction. This holds for a fault governed by the linear slip-weakening constitutive equation, by slip weakening with thermal pressurization of pore fluid, and by rate- and state-dependent laws with thermal pressurization. The same is also true even assuming a highly heterogeneous initial shear stress field on the fault. (2) Using isochrone theory, we derive a general expression for the spectral characteristics and geometric spreading of two pulses arising from supershear rupture, the well-known Mach wave, and a second lesser known pulse caused by rupture acceleration. (3) We demonstrate that the Mach cone amplification of high frequencies overwhelms the de-amplification of high-frequency content in the slip velocity functions in supershear ruptures. Consequently, when earthquake ruptures travel at supershear speed, a net enhancement of high-frequency radiation is expected, and the alleged “low” peak accelerations observed for the 2002 Denali and other large earthquakes are probably not caused by diminished high-frequency content in the slip velocity function, as has been speculated.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Noise in GPS displacement measurements from southern California and southern Nevada

Time series of position changes estimated from data from 236 continuously recording GPS receivers operating in Southern California and Southern Nevada are evaluated for noise models that characterize their temporal correlations. The lengths of the time series range between 3.5 and 10 years. After adjusting these data for postseismic deformation, offsets, and annual periodicities, I find that about one-half of the time series have temporal correlations that are categorized as either flicker or random-walk noise. The remaining time series can be best categorized as either a combination of flicker and random-walk; power law noise; first-order Gauss-Markov plus random-walk noise; or power law plus broadband, seasonal noise. A variety of geodetic monuments are used in Southern California and Nevada, including deeply braced designs, cement piers, pins drilled in outcrop, and buildings. When I evaluate the noise for each time series in terms of an estimate of the standard error in velocity, I find that the sites with the smallest errors are those located in Nevada using deeply braced monuments. Sites that are installed within regions of active pumping, both for groundwater and oil, had the largest standard errors in velocity. Comparison of monument stability, as measured by standard error in rate, with average, annual rainfall nearby indicates a marginally significant correlation. In addition, even though regional filtering removed much of the common-mode signals in these time series, there still remains a common-mode seasonal signal which can and should be removed.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2008

A global search for stress shadows

[1] Debate continues regarding the relative proportion of earthquakes triggered by passing seismic waves versus static stress changes from a main shock. Static stress changes are expected to have long‐term effects on earthquake probabilities, whereas dynamic stress changes due to the passing of seismic waves should not. Both mechanisms are expected to raise seismicity rates in some areas, but only static stress change calculations predict rate decrease shadows. Thus, identification of post‐main‐shock earthquake suppression is diagnostic of a static stress change process. We note that in principle, static stress change theory predicts suppression of particular earthquake mechanisms in a shadow zone rather than an overall rate reduction. A stress shadow can therefore be characterized by a change in the average earthquake focal mechanism before and after a main shock that results from suppression of a given mechanism type. We examined average mechanisms from ±2° radii and 5‐year periods before and after 119 M s ≥ 7 main shock earthquakes drawn from the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Significant average mechanism changes caused by earthquake suppression were found in only two cases. However, by stacking the data, we were able to resolve statistically significant suppression of particular post‐main‐shock focal mechanisms. This indicates that, while static stress shadows are subtle, they are indeed present in the global catalog.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Exponential decline of aftershocks of the M7.9 1868 great Kau earthquake, Hawaii, through the 20th century

The remarkable catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes going back to the 1820s is based on missionary diaries, newspaper accounts, and instrumental records and spans the great M 7.9 Kau earthquake of April 1868 and its aftershock sequence. The earthquake record since 1868 defines a smooth curve complete to M 5.2 of the declining rate into the 21st century, after five short volcanic swarms are removed. A single aftershock curve fits the earthquake record, even with numerous M 6 and 7 main shocks and eruptions. The timing of some moderate earthquakes may be controlled by magmatic stresses, but their overall long‐term rate reflects one of aftershocks of the Kau earthquake. The 1868 earthquake is, therefore, the largest and most controlling stress event in the 19th and 20th centuries. We fit both the modified Omori (power law) and stretched exponential (SE) functions to the earthquakes. We found that the modified Omori law is a good fit to the M ≥ 5.2 earthquake rate for the first 10 years or so and the more rapidly declining SE function fits better thereafter, as supported by three statistical tests. The switch to exponential decay suggests that a possible change in aftershock physics may occur from rate and state fault friction, with no change in the stress rate, to viscoelastic stress relaxation. The 61‐year exponential decay constant is at the upper end of the range of geodetic relaxation times seen after other global earthquakes. Modeling deformation in Hawaii is beyond the scope of this paper, but a simple interpretation of the decay suggests an effective viscosity of 10 19 to 10 20 Pa s pertains in the volcanic spreading of Hawaii's flanks. The rapid decline in earthquake rate poses questions for seismic hazard estimates in an area that is cited as one of the most hazardous in the United States.

Hawaii↗
USGS2009

Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift

[1] The Hellenic Arc of Greece is the most seismically active part of Europe, but little is know about its mechanics. We modeled deformation along the arc using a finite element model. The model was intended to capture large‐scale 3‐D structure of Nubian plate subduction beneath the Aegean block and its deformational consequences. The shape of the interface was developed using mapped traces at the surface and earthquake hypocenters at depth. Model block motions were constrained by recent compilations of GPS velocity vectors. We simulated a 10 ka period of convergence between Nubia and the Aegean and calculated the strain field in the overriding plate as well as the spatial distribution and orientation of differential stress (∣ σ 1 − σ 3 ∣). From these calculations we derived testable quantities such as the expected seismic moment rate on the interplate contact, uplift pattern, and distribution of strain modes. Our relatively simple model broadly reproduced observed uplift patterns, earthquake activity, and loci of extension and contraction. The model showed a localization of uplift near the island of Crete, where the fastest Aegean uplift rates are well documented. Comparison of calculated expected seismic moment and observed earthquake catalogs implies a nearly fully coupled interplate contact. On the basis of our modeling results, we suggest that south Aegean deformation is driven primarily by the fast moving (∼33 mm a −1 ) Aegean upper plate overriding a nearly stalled (∼5 mm a −1 ) Nubian lower plate. This tectonic setting thus more closely resembles a continental thrust than it does a typical oceanic subduction zone.

Aegean Sea, Hellenic Arc↗
USGS2009

Constraints on the stress state of the San Andreas fault with analysis based on core and cuttings from SAFOD drilling phases 1 and 2

Analysis of field data has led different investigators to conclude that the San Andreas Fault (SAF) has either anomalously low frictional sliding strength ( μ < 0.2) or strength consistent with standard laboratory tests ( μ > 0.6). Arguments for the apparent weakness of the SAF generally hinge on conceptual models involving intrinsically weak gouge or elevated pore pressure within the fault zone. Some models assert that weak gouge and/or high pore pressure exist under static conditions while others consider strength loss or fluid pressure increase due to rapid coseismic fault slip. The present paper is composed of three parts. First, we develop generalized equations, based on and consistent with the Rice (1992) fault zone model to relate stress orientation and magnitude to depth‐dependent coefficient of friction and pore pressure. Second, we present temperature‐ and pressure‐dependent friction measurements from wet illite‐rich fault gouge extracted from San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) phase 1 core samples and from weak minerals associated with the San Andreas Fault. Third, we reevaluate the state of stress on the San Andreas Fault in light of new constraints imposed by SAFOD borehole data. Pure talc ( μ ≈0.1) had the lowest strength considered and was sufficiently weak to satisfy weak fault heat flow and stress orientation constraints with hydrostatic pore pressure. Other fault gouges showed a systematic increase in strength with increasing temperature and pressure. In this case, heat flow and stress orientation constraints would require elevated pore pressure and, in some cases, fault zone pore pressure in excess of vertical stress.

California↗
USGS2010

Geodetic evidence for en echelon dike emplacement and concurrent slow slip during the June 2007 intrusion and eruption at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

A series of complex events at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, 17 June to 19 June 2007, began with an intrusion in the upper east rift zone (ERZ) and culminated with a small eruption (1500 m 3 ). Surface deformation due to the intrusion was recorded in unprecedented detail by Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt networks as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data acquired by the ENVISAT and ALOS satellites. A joint nonlinear inversion of GPS, tilt, and InSAR data yields a deflationary source beneath the summit caldera and an ENE-striking uniform-opening dislocation with ~2 m opening, a dip of ∼80° to the south, and extending from the surface to ~2 km depth. This simple model reasonably fits the overall pattern of deformation but significantly misfits data near the western end of an inferred dike-like source. Three more complex dike models are tested that allow for distributed opening including (1) a dike that follows the surface trace of the active rift zone, (2) a dike that follows the symmetry axis of InSAR deformation, and (3) two en echelon dike segments beneath mapped surface cracks and newly formed steaming areas. The en echelon dike model best fits near-field GPS and tilt data. Maximum opening of 2.4 m occurred on the eastern segment beneath the eruptive vent. Although this model represents the best fit to the ERZ data, it still fails to explain data from a coastal tiltmeter and GPS sites on Kīlauea's southwestern flank. The southwest flank GPS sites and the coastal tiltmeter exhibit deformation consistent with observations of previous slow slip events beneath Kīlauea's south flank, but inconsistent with observations of previous intrusions. Slow slip events at Kīlauea and elsewhere are thought to occur in a transition zone between locked and stably sliding zones of a fault. An inversion including slip on a basal decollement improves fit to these data and suggests a maximum of ~15 cm of seaward fault motion, comparable to previous slow-slip events.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2010

The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault

[1] The similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 October 2007 moment magnitude M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 M L 5.5 earthquake. Both occurred on Oppenheimer et al.'s (1990) Zone V “stuck patch” on the central Calaveras fault, providing new support for their model of Calaveras fault earthquake activity. We suggest that Zone V fails only in a family of recurring M ∼ 5.4–5.5 earthquakes. The 1955 and 2007 earthquakes are the penultimate and ultimate Zone V events. Earthquakes in 1891 and 1864 are possible earlier Zone V events. The next Zone V event is not expected in the next few decades, assuming a time‐dependent recurrence model: the mean forecast date is 2064 (2035–2104, 95% confidence range). We further suggest that Zones I, II, III, and IV fail in recurring M ∼ 5.1–5.3, M ∼ 5.6–5.8, M ∼ 6.1–6.3, and M ∼ 4.9–5.0 earthquakes, respectively. If our earthquake recurrence model is correct, the next Zone I event is overdue and could occur anytime, and M 5–6 earthquakes should not occur on Zones II, III, and IV before 2014, 2012, and 2026, respectively. We cannot rule out the possibility that Zone VI, which lies at the southern end of the Mission Seismic Trend, where the southern Hayward and central Calaveras faults appear to connect at depth, fails aseismically or in large events on the southern Hayward fault, such as last occurred in 1868, or in large events on the adjoining northern Calaveras fault segment.

California↗